PLEASE NOTE:
*
CCNet, 001/2000, 5 January 2000
QUOTE OF THE DAY
"Stone me! An asteroid strike is
the first scare story of the
century. Three wise men have been
gathered to decide how best to
avert an asteroid tragedy which
threatens to wipe out all
civilisation - never has the Blair
government devised a policy move
with such an epic tone.... Fighting off
an intergalactic menace may
also prove the perfect test for the
British know-how and bottled
millennial optimism responsible for the
Dome and the... er, river of
fire."
-- BBC, 4
January 2000
(1) UK SCIENCE MINISTER ANNOUNCES TASK FORCE ON POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS
NEAR EARTH OBJECTS
Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>
(2) UNITED KINGDOM SETS UP IMPACT THREAT TASK FORCE
BBC News Online, 4 January, 2000
(3) SAVING THE WORLD FROM ASTEROIDS
BBC News Online, 4 January, 2000
(4) THE END IS NIGH, AGAIN
BBC News Online, 4 January, 2000
======
(1) UK SCIENCE MINISTER ANNOUNCES TASK FORCE ON POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS
NEAR EARTH OBJECTS
From Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>
Department of Trade and Industry
London, England
30 December 1999
P/99/1064
SCIENCE MINISTER ANNOUNCES TASK FORCE ON POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS
NEAR EARTH OBJECTS
A Task Force to look at the potential for risk posed by Near
Earth Objects
(NEOs) has been announced by Science Minister, Lord Sainsbury.
The three-strong team will make proposals to the British National
Space
Centre on the nature of the hazard and the potential levels of
risk. It
will also consider how the United Kingdom should best contribute
to
international effort on NEOs.
The Task Force will be chaired by Dr Harry Atkinson, formerly of
the Science
and Engineering Research Council (SERC) and past Chairman of the
European
Space Agency's Council. Two other appointees, Sir Crispin Tickell
and
Professor David Williams join Dr Atkinson.
Lord Sainsbury said: "The risk of an asteroid or comet
causing substantial
damage is extremely remote. This is not something that
people should lie
awake at night worrying about. But we cannot ignore the risk,
however
remote, and a case can be made for monitoring the situation on an
international basis.
"I hope that the setting up of this Task Force will help the
UK play a full
and prominent role in international discussions on this important
issue. I
am delighted to be able to announce such a well-qualified team of
experts
and I look forward to receiving their report by the middle of
2000."
Notes to Editors:
1. Near Earth Objects are either asteroids or comets. Many NEOs
have been
identified and their orbits determined using
ground-based telescopes,
including some of NASA's, in a number of countries,
although many
remain to be surveyed.
2. Of the known NEOs, none is believed to pose a significant risk
to the
Earth in the foreseeable future. However, on a
time-scale of many
millions of years, the Earth has been hit by objects
of sufficient
size to cause serious damage, including the object
which is thought to
have impacted the Earth about 65 million years ago,
with global
consequences including the extinction of the
dinosaurs.
3. The British National Space Centre has responsibility for
co-ordination
with the work of other agencies on the threat to the
Earth from space
debris and NEOs.
4. Dr Harry Atkinson, a New Zealander by birth, has had many
years of
experience in dealing with science and technology
internationally.
This has involved both intergovernmental
organisations (such as the
ESA) and the co-ordination of activities between
national agencies
(including NASA). He was attached to the Cabinet
Office in the early
1970s, on the staff of the Chief Scientific Advisor,
where his tasks
included reviewing all governmental activities in
environmental
pollution.
Subsequently, in the Science Research Council his
responsibilities
included astronomy and space. This involved UK
co-operation with other
countries in many space science missions, and in
ground-based
astronomical facilities in Australia, South Africa,
Hawaii and La
Palma.
He helped to set up the European Synchrotron
Radiation Facility at
Grenoble and the EISCA facility in the Arctic
Circle; and was
concerned with the high-flux Beam Reactor (ILL),
also at Grenoble.
Until a year ago, he was Chief Scientist of the
British insurance
industry's Loss Prevention Council.
5. Sir Crispin Tickell has been Chancellor of the University of
Kent
since 1996 and has a distinguished diplomatic
career. He was Permanent
Secretary of the Overseas Development Agency,
1984-87, British
Permanent Representative to UN, 1987-90, and Warden
of Green College,
Oxford, 1990-97.
Sir Crispin has played a prominent role in
presiding, chairing and
advising committees and associations on
environmental issues. These
include Chairmanship of the International Institute
for Environment
and development; the Climate Institute of
Washington; Earth Watch
(Europe) and the Advisory Committee on the Darwin
Initiative for the
Survival of Species since 1992. He is author of a
wide range of
environmental publications.
6. Professor David Williams holds the Perren Chair of Astronomy
at
University College London and is President of the
Royal Astronomical
Society. He was previously Reader in Mathematics and
Professor of
Theoretical Astrophysics at the University of
Manchester Institute of
Science and Technology, UMIST, and has worked at
NASA's Goddard Space
Flight Centre. He is co-author of titles on
interstellar chemistry and
astrophysics, and has published over 200 articles in
learned journals.
========
(2) UNITED KINGDOM SETS UP IMPACT THREAT TASK FORCE
From the BBC News Online, 4 January, 2000
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/sci/tech/newsid_590000/590668.stm
Taskforce tackles asteroid threat
An expert taskforce to assess the threat of an asteroid strike on
Earth
has been appointed by the UK government. The men who will examine
the risk
of the Earth being destroyed by an object from outer space were
named on
Tuesday. The task force will be chaired by Dr Harry Atkinson,
past chairman
of the European Space Agency's Council. The other members will be
environmentalist and former diplomat Sir Crispin Tickell and
Professor David
Williams.
Welsh MP Lembit Opik, who first suggested setting up a body to
monitor the
threat, warned in the Commons in March that the risk of being
killed by an
asteroid was 750 times higher than winning the National Lottery.
The Montgomery Liberal Democrat MP met Lord Sainsbury in July,
urging him to
set up a body to examine the possibility of objects from space
striking the
Earth.
Science Minister Lord Sainsbury has now asked the three-man team
to look at
the potential for risk posed by asteroids and comets - termed
"near-Earth
objects".
The team will make proposals to the British National Space Centre
on the
nature of the hazard and will consider how the UK should best
contribute to
international effort to prevent a strike.
Announcing the members of the task force, Lord Sainsbury said:
"The risk of
an asteroid or comet causing substantial damage is extremely
remote. "We
cannot ignore the risk, however remote, and a case can be made
for
monitoring the situation on an international basis.
"I hope that the setting up of this task force will help the
UK play a full
and prominent role in international discussions on this important
issue."
He said he was "delighted to be able to announce such a
well-qualified team
of experts", adding that he looked forward to receiving
their report by the
middle of 2000.
Sir Crispin Tickell said: "One of the purposes of the
taskforce is to put
together the evidence to identify what is coming towards us.
"Last year, an
object passed between the Moon and Earth which, if it had hit us,
would have
done a lot of damage."
Asteroids can devastate the Earth
Many near-Earth objects have been identified and their orbits
determined
using ground-based telescopes in a number of countries, although
many are
yet to be surveyed.
Of those known, none is believed to pose a significant risk to
the Earth in
the foreseeable future, according to the Department of Trade and
Industry.
However, on a time-scale of many millions of years, the Earth has
been hit
by objects of sufficient size to cause serious damage.
These include the object which is thought to have hit the Earth
about 65
million years ago, and led to the extinction of the dinosaurs.
Copyright 2000, BBC
===============
(3) SAVING THE WORLD FROM ASTEROIDS
From the BBC News Online, 4 January, 2000
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/sci/tech/newsid_590000/590622.stm
A gentle push, not a nuclear blast, would be the best way to deal
with an
asteroid threatening the Earth, according to a member of the UK
government's
taskforce which was announced on Tuesday.
Although Hollywood heroics involving space acrobatics and nuclear
bombs have
more dramatic potential, blasting an asteroid which is arrowing
in on Earth
could be the worst option.
Professor David Williams, of University College London and
formerly of
Nasa's Space Science Data Centre, told BBC News Online that
detonating a
rocky object would simply create lots of individual asteroids
which could
rain down destruction over a larger area.
He said that a better option would be landing a solar-powered
engine on the
object that would then gently push the asteroid out of its
collision course.
"The approach would be trapping sunlight, turning it into
electricity to
power an ion gun and exerting a very small force on the object,
but over a
long time. This would just nudge it out of the orbit it is
currently in."
Dinosaurs were wiped out by a meteorite
A very small shove on an asteroid whilst it is far away could
mean the
difference between hitting the Earth and by more than half a
million
kilometres (300,000 miles), said Professor Williams.
The engine could be created using technology available today. And
expertise
required to place the engine on the object, is being gained from
missions to
the asteroid Eros and to a comet, by Rosetta mission.
Two-year warning
Estimates of the likely period of warning of a doomsday asteroid
vary from
two years to 20.
Austin Atkinson, an author on asteroids, believes that 20 years
would be
enough time to reach and deflect an object but added "It is
very hard to get
a rocket from Earth to reach an object within two years."
The purpose of the taskforce is to assess how the UK can
contribute to the
global asteroid watch. Mr Atkinson said: "I think everyone
is delighted that
Lord Sainsbury has set up this taskforce. Let's hope they argue
in favour of
setting up an observation post in Britain."
Space probes have been sent to investigate asteroids
Professor Williams added: "The UK is not going to save the
world, but will
contribute to the co-ordinated worldwide effort in this
regard."
Asteroids near Earth travel at between 20 and 30 kilometres per
second,
making them both hard to intercept and hard to see. International
efforts
currently centre on watching the orbits of asteroids more closely
in order
to make more accurate predictions of their future course.
The chances of a serious asteroid strike on Earth are very small
but the
consequences are so catastrophic that, when averaged out over
time, the
chances of being killed by a major impact are 1 in 20,000, the
same as being
killed in an aeroplane crash.
Asteroids bigger than two kilometres (1.25 miles) would quite
probably wipe
out the human race but are only expected once every million years
or so.
However, space objects in the range 50 to 100 metres could kill
tens of
millions of people if they struck a city.
Nuclear blast
One such object was a 60m-wide comet that exploded over Siberia
in 1908 with
600 times the energy of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima. It laid
waste to a
40km-wide patch of forest. Events like this are expected every
100 to 300
years.
Dr Matt Genge, from London's Natural History Museum, described
what would
have happened if the Siberian comet had hit London.
As it plunged downwards, sonic booms would thunder from the sky,
just before
the comet exploded with tremendous force. Dr Genge said:
"You'd get a large
shock wave and thermal flash. It's almost exactly the same as a
nuclear air
burst.
"Let's say you're a very fast thinker. In the microseconds
you have left,
the first thing is that everything would burst into flames,
including you.
You'd be knocked off your feet by the shock wave and then dragged
back again
towards the explosion as all the air rushes back in."
After the blast, London would be a wasteland of flattened,
charred buildings
and blackened corpses.
The three-man task force will make its recommendations by the
middle of
2000.
Copyright 2000, BBC
============
(4) THE END IS NIGH, AGAIN
From the BBC News Online, 4 January, 2000
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/uk/newsid_590000/590484.stm
The end is nigh, again
Stone me! An asteroid strike is the first scare story of the
century.
Three wise men have been gathered to decide how best to avert an
asteroid
tragedy which threatens to wipe out all civilisation - never has
the Blair
government devised a policy move with such an epic tone.
Days into 2000, airliners have stayed aloft and lottery ticket
machines
still churn, allaying fears that the millennium bug would propel
us back to
the dark ages of 1900.
Disaster lottery: It could be you
The week has also seen the departure of the last peace protesters
camped
outside the former nuclear missile base at Greenham Common.
Before the announcement that a taskforce was being set up to look
into
the dangers posed by an asteroid striking the Earth, it was
looking like we
in the UK had nothing special to worry about in the 21st Century.
Nuclear holocaust was one of our overriding fears before 1989,
with even the
most optimistic souls occasionally doubting the sanity, or
humanity, of
those with their fingers on the button.
The millennium Bug caused just as many sleepless nights,
particularly with
its nail-biting countdown to the High Noon-esque zero hour of
0000 GMT on
New Year's Day.
Fire and brimstone
While nuclear destruction would be due to the folly of a few and
the bug
meltdown the result of the short-sightedness of programmers -
annihilation
at the hands of a giant space rock has a decidedly biblical
quality.
However distant the prospect of a deadly asteroid strike -
supposedly it's
750 times more likely than your chances of winning the lottery,
so no
worries there - it does have that ring of final retribution.
This drama has not been lost on Hollywood, robbed of its Russki
villains.
Following a brief dalliance with pestilence in the Ebola-inspired
film
Outbreak, the studios have bet the farm on killer asteroids.
Movies about killer rocks, of course, pre-date the end of the
Cold War. But
the wonky special effects of such flops as 1979's Meteor,
starring Sean
Connery and Natalie Wood, precluded any real thoughts of global
destruction.
Digital jiggery-pokery in 1998's twin offerings Deep Impact and
the more
bluntly-titled Armageddon, gave us a believable picture of what
devastation
an asteroid could do to our planet.
Where there's a Willis...
Apart from awakening us to this new apocalyptic danger, the films
also
proposed some fairly straightforward solutions.
Gainfully employing existing "Star Wars" anti-missile
satellites is soon
revealed to be no match for the hands-on approach.
Movie special effects have a 'deep impact'
Landing a crew of US and Russian astronauts on the rock, or a
bunch of
semi-trained navvies under Bruce Willis in Armageddon's case, is
therefore
endorsed as far and away the best option.
Should their nuclear demolition job on the asteroid fail to do
the trick,
Deep Impact advises us to dig - with the great, the good and the
lucky given
entry to underground shelters.
While it's doubtful Mr Blair's asteroid taskforce will suggest
sending a
manned mission - even one including Bruce Willis - to tackle a
"global
killer", it will presumably call for British action should
one hove into
view.
In on the act
It may be that the UK is nettled by its constant exclusion from
Hollywood
disaster films, not to mention the howls of anger when World War
Two epic
Saving Private Ryan ignored British participation in the
conflict.
In the movies, Russia is usually America's partner of choice -
overcoming
political differences for the greater good.
Mr Blair may be hoping that with Russia kept busy stopping its
Mir space
station crashing unexpectedly into the planet, the UK may be
allowed to
share the laurels with the United States.
Armageddon: 'Get me to a mineshaft!'
Fighting off an intergalactic menace may also prove the perfect
test for the
British know-how and bottled millennial optimism responsible for
the Dome
and the... er, river of fire.
Should an asteroid make it through unscathed, sadly the UK
doesn't boast the
number of safe holes in the ground it once did. When coal was
king the
country was literally peppered with deep shafts. We may have to
rely on the
benevolence of other mining nations.
Not all of humanity can be accommodated underground, Deep Impact
used a
lottery to allocate places - and if there's one thing the UK can
run it's a
lottery. Your chances of picking a lucky, lifesaving ticket?
Probably less
than being hit by an asteroid.
Copyright 2000, BBC
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*
CCNet-ESSAY, 5 January 1999
---------------------------
THOUGHTS AT THE START OF THE FALSE
MILLENNIUM
By Brian G. Marsden <bmarsden@cfa.harvard.edu>