PLEASE NOTE:
*
CCNet TERRA 5/2003 - 21 January 2003
-------------------------------------
"Severe cold wave condition intensified further on Monday,
making it
one of the longest and most fearsome spell experienced in the
state in over
eight decades. Met officials said that the records they had since
the
formation of the state met office here in Lucknow, no other
severe cold
spell had been so long as it had been this year."
--The Times of India, 21 January 2003
"Between 1645 and 1715 (a period astronomers call the
"Maunder
Minimum") the sunspot cycle stopped; the face of the Sun was
nearly
blank for 70 years. At the same time Europe was hit by an
extraordinary
cold spell: the Thames River in London froze, glaciers advanced
in the
Alps, and northern sea ice increased. An earlier centuries-long
surge in
solar activity (inferred from studies of tree rings) had the
opposite
effect: Vikings were able to settle the thawed-out coast of
Greenland in
the 980s, and even grow enough wheat there to export the surplus
to
Scandinavia."
--NASA Science News, 17 January 2003
"The problem with predicting the course of global climate
change...
is that global climate is too complex to be adequately
modeled."
--Robert Kirkman, Georgia Institute of Technology
(1) COLD BREAKS ALL PAST RECORDS
The Times of India, 21 January 2003
(2) DEATH TOLL RISING AS SOUTH ASIAN FREEZE GOES ON
CNN, 20 January 2003
(3) TEMPERATURES TAKE RECORD DIVE IN HUNGARY
The Budapest Sun, 17 January 2003
(4) NASA STUDYING NATURAL CAUSES OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY
NASA Science News for January 17, 2003
(5) THE TRIPLE WHAMMY: TWO EL NIÑOS AND A SOLAR MAXIMUM
www.john-daly.com,
19 January 2003
(6) IPCC SCIENTIST CHALLENGES UN CLIMATE PREDICTIONS
Environment News Service, 18 January 2003
(7) CHINA AND U.S. AGREE TO COOPERATE ON CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE
& TECHNOLOGY
People's Daily Online, 17 January 2003
(8) WHY SOCIETIES COLLAPSE: JARED DIAMOND AT PRINCETON UNIVERISTY
ABC Australia
(9) CLOUDY AND CLEAR STRATOSPHERES BEFORE A.D. 1000 INFERRED FROM
WRITTEN
SOURCES
Yvan Dutil <yvan.r.dutil@ca.abb.com>
(10) BETTER SAFE THAN SORRY? THE INHERENT RISKS OF THE
PRECAUTIONARY
PRINCIPLE
Tech Central Station, 17 January 2003
(11) GLOBAL WARMING AND COLD SPELLS
Michael Paine <mpaine@tpg.com.au>
(12) AND FINALLY: CORRIGER LA FORTUNE AS FRANCE WANTS TO BURY CO2
EMISSIONS
Environment Daily, 16 January 2003
=============
(1) COLD BREAKS ALL PAST RECORDS
>From The Times of India, 21 January 2003
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cms.dll/html/uncomp/articleshow?artid=35000406
LUCKNOW: Severe cold wave condition intensified further on
Monday, making it
one of the longest and most fearsome spell experienced in the
state in over
eight decades. The bitter cold has claimed over 440 lives all
over the
state, with Allahabad registering the largest number of 99 deaths
so far.
In the past, prolonged spells of winter chill were experienced in
1962, 1973
and 2000, which had lasted around 15-20 days, when maximum
temperature and
minimum temperatures were 7-10 degree below normal. However, this
time the
formations of cold air pools are still persisting and they will
further
intensify the cold wave, effecting more drop in minimum
temperatures
statewide. Met officials said that the records they had since the
formation
of the state met office here in Lucknow, no other severe cold
spell had been
so long as it had been this year.
Met director RK Verma said that western disturbance, which was
headed
towards the state and was expected to break the cold spell, had
fizzled out
and fresh currents of icy continental winds, originating from
Siberia, had
forced their way into the state.
These symptoms indicate that severe cold wave conditions would
intensify in
the state, particularly the eastern part, he said. While the
dense 2-3
kilometre vertical layer of fog is preventing rise in day
temperatures by
barring the sunlight, the chill effect in the air is forcing the
mercury to
drop in the night, resulting in more formation of fog. This cycle
was
keeping the cold wave alive and fierce, he said.
===========
(2) DEATH TOLL RISING AS SOUTH ASIAN FREEZE GOES ON
>From CNN, 20 January 2003
http://www.cnn.com/2003/WEATHER/01/20/southasia.fog.ap/index.html
NEW DELHI, India (AP) -- Dense fog and poor visibility disrupted
air and
rail services in northern India as chilly winds pushed down
temperatures,
taking the death toll in South Asia's month-long cold spell to
1,600.
Forty-three people died overnight in Uttar Pradesh state from
intense cold,
a state Home Ministry official said on condition of anonymity.
In neighboring Bihar state, nine people perished Sunday night,
raising the
death toll in India to 819. No deaths were reported Monday from
Bangladesh
or Nepal, where a total of 774 people have died of the cold since
December
20.
The worst hit were the poor and homeless, who were fending for
themselves as
government handouts of wood and blankets ran short....
Copyright 2003 The Associated Press.
===========
(3) TEMPERATURES TAKE RECORD DIVE IN HUNGARY
>From The Budapest Sun, 17 January 2003
http://www.budapestsun.com/full_story.asp?ArticleId={81559CBD395246E7999AD5E277E96BBF}&From=News
This week kicked off with record low temperatures in many parts
of Hungary
after a period of heavy snowfall.
The daytime low temperature record -24.8°C was broken early on
Sunday in
several parts of the north east of the country, with a new record
of -30.9°C
registered in the village of Zabar in Nógrád county....
==========
(4) NASA STUDYING NATURAL CAUSES OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY
NASA Science News for January 17, 2003
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2003/17jan_solcon.htm?list104104
January 17, 2003: Our Sun may seem an enduring, unwavering
beacon in the
sky, but in truth it has a "heartbeat" of sorts--a
pulsation between dimmer
and brighter phases so slow that it only "beats" 9
times each century!
It's understandable that you might not have noticed. The pulsing
is not only
slow, it's also subtle. The total energy coming from the Sun only
varies by
about 0.1% over each 11-year cycle. For a long time scientists
didn't notice
it either, which is why the Sun's intensity is called,
ironically, the
"solar constant."
The intensity of the Sun varies along with the 11-year sunspot
cycle. When
sunspots are numerous the solar constant is high (about 1367
W/m2); when
sunspots are scarce the value is low (about 1365 W/m2). Eleven
years isn't
the only "beat," however. The solar constant can
fluctuate by ~0.1% over
days and weeks as sunspots grow and dissipate. The solar constant
also
drifts by 0.2% to 0.6% over many centuries, according to
scientists who
study tree rings.
These small changes can affect Earth in a big way. For example,
between 1645
and 1715 (a period astronomers call the "Maunder
Minimum") the sunspot cycle
stopped; the face of the Sun was nearly blank for 70 years. At
the same time
Europe was hit by an extraordinary cold spell: the Thames River
in London
froze, glaciers advanced in the Alps, and northern sea ice
increased. An
earlier centuries-long surge in solar activity (inferred from
studies of
tree rings) had the opposite effect: Vikings were able to settle
the
thawed-out coast of Greenland in the 980s, and even grow enough
wheat there
to export the surplus to Scandinavia.
Researchers still aren't sure how small changes in the Sun's
output nudge
Earth's climate in one direction or another. To find the answer,
they need
to monitor our climate and keep a finger on the Sun's
"pulse" for many
decades running.
"Consistency in this data record is crucial," says
Alexandre Joukoff, a
scientist at the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium who
studies the
solar constant. "Gaps or flaws in the record undermine our
ability to use
statistics to draw strong conclusions about phenomena such as
Earth's
climate."
Getting consistent measurements from the ground is tricky,
explains Joukoff,
because Earth's changing seasons and weather cause sunlight
hitting the
ground to wax and wane. On average, clouds and the atmosphere
absorb or
reflect 51 percent of the incoming sunlight, and this can vary
widely
between overcast and cloudless days.
The best place to measure the solar constant is high above the
clouds--in
space. But there's a problem there, too: The typical design-life
of most
satellites is only 5 to 10 years; after that, fuel runs out and
the
satellite goes cold and quiet. They're not around long enough to
measure the
solar constant for decades-long stretches.
When new satellites are launched to replace dying ones, it's hard
to know if
a reading of, say, "10 units" from the new satellite
truly equals "10 units"
measured by the old one, making the consistency of the data
record
uncertain. Furthermore, satellite sensors degrade as they age--a
result of
sustained exposure to solar ultraviolet radiation.
>From this patchwork of aging satellites and sensors,
scientists somehow need
to assemble a continuous, consistent record of the Sun's
intensity over 30
... 40 ... 50 or more years!
"SOLCON is what makes that possible," says Joukoff.
SOLCON, short for "Solar Constant radiometer," is a
high-precision
solar-intensity sensor that Joukoff and colleagues keep at the
Royal
Meteorological Institute of Belgium. By sheltering the sensor
from UV
radiation and rarely using it, they spare this "gold
standard" instrument
from most of the effects of aging, making it a dependable
touchstone over
the years.
Every few years they fly SOLCON on a short mission into space to
spot-check
the agreement of Sun-watching satellites in orbit at the time. In
fact,
SOLCON is in orbit now. It's one of the 80+ experiments onboard
the space
shuttle Columbia (STS-107), which left Earth on January 16th for
a 16-day
research mission. Researchers will use the sensor in the days
ahead to
spot-check two satellites: the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
(SOHO) and
ACRIM-3. Adjusted to match SOLCON, the separate records from
these
satellites and others can then be stitched together into a
continuous
history of our Sun's cycles of brightness--a kind of long-term
"EKG" readout
for our pulsing star.
"This kind of data is invaluable because it helps us
understand the past as
well as the future," notes Paal Brekke, the deputy project
scientist for
SOHO. "Methods for estimating the Sun's intensity hundreds
of years ago,
such as measuring the cosmic ray-generated carbon-14 embedded in
the rings
of old trees, can be improved by comparing those clues today with
a reliable
satellite record.
In principle, SOLCON is like an old-fashioned two-pan
balance--but for heat
instead of mass. It consists of two identical chambers and a
device between
them that detects any heat moving from one chamber to the other.
One chamber
is opened to incoming sunlight via a very precise aperture. The
other
"reference" chamber is kept closed and heated only
electrically. To measure
intensity of incoming sunlight, the device adjusts the current to
an
electric heater in the sun-exposed chamber until no heat flows
between the
chambers--that is, until the "scales" are balanced. The
amount of current
required to achieve a balance is a measure of the energy in the
sunlight.
Most solar intensity sensors in orbit operate in this way.
Eventually, even SOLCON will need to be replaced. One candidate
for its
successor is the Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) built by the
Laboratory for
Atmospheric and Space Physics in Colorado. TIM is very similar to
SOLCON,
except that it uses four chambers instead of two for better
internal
cross-checking of instrument aging.
The date has not yet been set, but when the day comes, the
successor will
fly a single mission--probably a shuttle research mission like
STS-107--in
tandem with the old instrument in order to assess the new
sensor's accuracy.
After that, SOLCON will finally be retired.
The Sun, of course, will keep on going--but if all goes as
planned, we won't
miss a beat.
============
(5) THE TRIPLE WHAMMY: TWO EL NIÑOS AND A SOLAR MAXIMUM
>From www.john-daly.com,
19 January 2003
The last four years has seen the greenhouse industry in a state
of frenzy
exploiting one climate event after another (all the `warm' ones
that is, the
cooling ones like the recent northern freezes being hushed). We
have had
droughts, floods, bushfires in various parts of the world, and
people would
be forgiven for thinking that perhaps the `smoking gun' of global
warming
really had arrived. In each case the industry has seized upon
each event
either explicitly or implicitly as being caused by human agency,
and using
selective statistics to show each event was somehow unusual or
unprecedented. And in all cases, the snake oil cure has been at
hand - the
Kyoto Protocol, that piece of paper which conned the European and
Canadian
governments, but not the U.S. or Australian.
So why has the climate been so active in the last four years? We
can put it
down to Nature, not man.
It all began in 1997 with the onset of the second biggest El
Niño event of
the 20th century. No two such events are identical, some
moderate, some
severe, and 1997-98 was very severe indeed (the biggest was
1982-83 when 65
people were killed in Australia by massive bushfires on Ash
Wednesday in
1983). El Niño happens about every 4 to 7 years and is a
completely natural
event, with no human agency possible since it is a process
involving
gargantuan cyclic ocean movements.
Once the 1997-98 El Niño had passed, with the associated
residual warming of
the Pacific Ocean, less than a year had passed before we began to
surge into
yet another big `Solar Maximum', that period when the sun
develops massive
sunspots and radiates more energy. A solar max occurs every 11
years or so,
and has its greatest impact in warming of the oceans and ice caps
and
glaciers. (No-one has yet claimed that the sun's periodic
outbursts are
caused by man). The current solar maximum was somewhat different
to most in
that it has lasted longer and had two distinct peaks, in 2000 and
2001. The
longer it lasts, the more warmth accumulates in the oceans,
impacting on
weather worldwide. (Solar maxima over the last 50 years have been
the most
intense since records began in 1600 AD, and this current one was
no
exception. Future maxima may well be weaker as the sun cannot and
does not
maintain this level of intensity indefinitely. Between 1650 and
1710 AD, it
went very quiet, a period called the Maunder Minimum, with the
result that
the earth experienced the `Little Ice Age' at exactly the same
time).
Finally, last year in 2002, even before the solar cycle had
started its
usual decline towards the cooler Solar Minimum, we saw the
development of
another El Niño on top of an already stretched out solar
maximum. A Solar
Maximum happening concurrently with an El Niño, with no cooling
volcanic
action for the last 10 years, is a potent combination
climatically. And the
weather has been very active as a direct result of this
combination.
But it will pass. These things always do. The solar cycle is now
heading
down towards its expected solar minimum around 2006, while the
current El
Niño is expected to wane in the next few months, possibly being
replaced by
it's cooling counterpart, La Niña.
The greenhouse industry has thrived off Nature's climatic drama
of the last
4 years, using a combination of public hysteria and bent
statistics, but the
pickings will be leaner in the months and years ahead - until we
reach the
next El Niño or the next solar maximum expected around 2012 (the
same year
the Kyoto Protocol expires).
============
(6) IPCC SCIENTIST CHALLENGES UN CLIMATE PREDICTIONS
>From Environment News Service, 18 January 2003
http://ens-news.com/ens/jan2003/2003-01-17-09.asp#anchor6
CHARLOTTESVILLE, Virginia, January 17, 2003 (ENS) - A
climatologist from
Virginia State says global climate change will likely involve
mild
temperature increases, rather than the most dramatic changes
predicted by
the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC).
The IPCC prediction includes a range of possible temperature
changes. At the
high end is the potential for an average temperature gain of 5.8
degrees
Celsius by the year 2100. Virginia State climatologist Patrick
Michaels says
the more likely scenario would result in a world that "looks
more like the
same world as today."
Michaels, a member of the IPCC, has published a paper in the
current issue
of the journal "Climate Research" that argues against
the dire predictions
of rising sea levels and declining plant productivity that the
high end IPCC
forecast has produced.
"The rate of warming will not be much different than it was
over the last 30
years," said Michaels, a professor of environmental sciences
at the
University of Virginia.
While most climate models produce a constant rate of future
warming, that
rate varies. Michaels' research, designed to determine which of
these rates
are more likely than others, uses nature as his model, comparing
past real
temperature rates to those predicted in computer models.
"Nature has been integrating the response to greenhouse
effect changes for
nearly a half-century, while models have been producing diverse
projections," Michaels noted.
Two years ago the IPCC produced its third assessment report,
which indicated
a global rise in temperatures of 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius for
1990 to
2100. Michaels' new independent study suggests the most likely
value is
around 1.6 degrees Celsius, near the low end of the IPCC range.
Michaels used an assortment of data to produce a range of
possible
temperatures for the period, and all were less broad than the
IPCC's range.
In one scenario, he used data from recent studies that examine
the
assumptions made about climate behavior in the United Nations
report, and
found a range of warming of 1.1 to 2.8 degrees Celsius.
When using data of actual climate change rates during the past 25
years of
greenhouse warming, and projecting it out to the year 2100,
Michaels found a
range of 1.5 to 2.6 degrees Celsius.
"Almost all models produce a constant rate of warming,"
Michaels said. "So
why not let nature choose that rate?"
When he factored both aspects of his study together, Michaels
found a range
of 1.0-1.6 degrees Celsius. By adjusting the averages of a range
of climate
models to reflect actual observed changes in temperature in
nature, he found
a warming range of 1.3-3.0 degrees Celsius, with a central value
of 1.9
degrees Celsius.
"The consistency of these somewhat independent results
encourages us to
conclude that 21st century warming will be modest and near the
low end of
the IPCC's third assessment report projections," he said.
Michaels said that much of the data in the IPCC's report is based
on older,
less accurate studies that take into account neither what has
already
occurred during the past century nor the more refined and
accurate
independent findings of more recent studies.
"Our paper looks at what should have been examined in the
IPCC report," he
said. "We should be listening to nature talking."
Michaels also said society is producing more fuel efficient
machinery and
will continue to do so throughout this century, further reducing
the
likelihood of dramatic warming.
"This is why we shouldn't rush policy decisions before we
have strong and
clear evidence that our projections are sound," Michaels
said. "In this
study we demonstrate that the IPCC's evidence for intense warming
projections is weak, but the evidence for the low end of their
range is very
strong."
The full article can be accessed at:
http://www.int-res.com/articles/cr2003/23/c023p001.pdf
=============
(7) CHINA AND US AGREE TO COOPERATE ON CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE
& TECHNOLOGY
>From People's Daily Online, 17 January 2003
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200301/17/eng20030117_110280.shtml
China and the United States Thursday agreed to cooperate on a
broad range of
climate change science and technology activities at the end of
the third
meeting of the China-US Working Group.
The three-day meeting of the working group was conducted under
the February
2002 agreement between Chinese President Jiang Zemin and US
President George
W. Bush to undertake consultations to explore common ground and
areas for
cooperation on climate change.
According to sources with the meeting, both sides recognized the
importance
of sustainable development in addressing the issue of climate
change and the
key role of economic growth in this regard.
The two sides identified 10 areas for cooperative research and
analysis:
non-CO2 gases, economic/environmental modeling, integrated
assessment of
potential consequences of climate change, adaptation strategies,
hydrogen
and fuel cell technology, carbon capture and sequestration,
observation/measurement, institutional partnerships,
energy/environment
project follow-up to the World Summit on Sustainable Development,
and
existing clean energy protocols/annexes.
The two sides further agreed to continue policy exchange and to
review
results of joint project cooperation. The fourth meeting of the
working
group will take place in the United States in May 2003.
Copyright 2003, People's Daily Online
=============
(8) WHY SOCIETIES COLLAPSE: JARED DIAMOND AT PRINCETON UNIVERISTY
>From ABC Australia
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/talks/bbing/stories/s743310.htm
Produced by Kirsten Garrett
Sunday 12 January 2003
(This program was originally broadcast on 27 October 2002)
Throughout human history, societies, civilisations have prospered
and
collapsed over time. The reasons, obviously, have lessons for the
whole of
our intricately interlinked planet today. At Princeton University
in
America, earlier this month, eminent professor Jared Diamond gave
a speech
about the collapse of ancient societies. And today, Background
Briefing will
broadcast that talk, edited and including some questions and
answers at the
end.
FULL TRANSCRIPT at http://www.abc.net.au/rn/talks/bbing/stories/s743310.htm
============
(9) CLOUDY AND CLEAR STRATOSPHERES BEFORE A.D. 1000 INFERRED FROM
WRITTEN
SOURCES
>From Yvan Dutil <yvan.r.dutil@ca.abb.com>
Hi Benny,
I have tough you might be interested by this paper.
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/gpol/papers/2002/2002_Stothers2.pdf
Yvan Dutil
-------
Cloudy and clear stratospheres before A.D. 1000 inferred from
written sources
Richard B. Stothers
Institute for Space Studies, Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA,
New York, USA
Received 16 January 2002; revised 13 August 2002; accepted 21
August 2002;
published 13 December 2002.
[1] How can observational information about stratospheric
transparency in the
preinstrumental era be acquired today? It may be reasonably
assumed that a high turbidity
in the stratosphere is almost always caused by light-scattering
sulfate aerosols derived
from large volcanic eruptions. Historical reports of a dimming of
the Sun, red twilight
glows, reddish solar haloes, and dark total eclipses of the Moon
indicate a high turbidity;
contrariwise, a ruddy disk shown by the eclipsed Moon betrays a
clear stratosphere. On the
basis of an extensive search of primary European and Middle
Eastern written sources
pertaining to the ancient and early medieval periods, seven
stratospheric dry fogs, in
addition to the four major ones already known, have been
identified by using solar
observations, and five smaller ones have been detected from dark
total lunar eclipses.
Seven of the eight most important dry fogs between 300 B.C. and
A.D. 1000 can be either
definitely or plausibly correlated with high levels of sulfate
acidity observed in Greenland
ice cores. An important conclusion is that this sample is
probably very nearly complete
for major dry fogs during this period. A second conclusion is
that the ratio of dark to
normal total lunar eclipses during early medieval times (A.D.
400-1000) appears to be
equal, approximately, to the ratio that has prevailed for the
past 40 years.
These conclusions suggest that the frequency of volcanic
eruptions, both large and
moderate, throughout the world may have remained statistically
constant (on a long
timescale) since at least 300 B.C. INDEX TERMS:
0305 Atmospheric Composition and Structure:
Aerosols and particles
(0345, 4801); 0370 Atmospheric Composition and Structure:
Volcanic effects
(8409); 1704 History of Geophysics: Atmospheric sciences; 1749
History of
Geophysics: Volcanology, geochemistry, and petrology;
Citation: Stothers, R. B., Cloudy and clear stratospheres before
A.D. 1000
inferred from written sources, J. Geophys. Res., 107(D23), 4718,
doi:10.1029/2002JD002105, 2002.
===========
(10) BETTER SAFE THAN SORRY? THE INHERENT RISKS OF THE
PRECAUTIONARY
PRINCIPLE
>From Tech Central Station, 17 January 2003
http://www.techcentralstation.be/2051/wrapper.jsp?PID=2051-100&CID=2051-0117
03N
by Hans Labohm
'Better safe than sorry.' This is the crux of the precautionary
principle.
The application of the principle manifests itself everywhere.
There are
crash barriers along the highway and handrails along the
staircase.
But the ladder of the traditional window cleaner does not have a
handrail.
And the same is true for the ladders in sluices, which may give
rise to
hair-raising spectacles of a passing skipper using the ladder to
take out
his St. Bernard dog. We do take part in traffic, although it may
cost human
lives. We finance the fire brigade via our taxes, but not every
house has a
sprinkler installation. And at the apogee of the Cold War, there
were even
people who did not possess a nuclear free shelter in their
backyard.
In other words, a risk-free world is unthinkable and there are
limits to the
application of the precautionary principle. We believe that some
risks are
too small to warrant additional expenditure. If we would spend
more on them,
then we will have to forgo the satisfaction of other needs,
including the
precautionary measures that will protect us against other risks
that we
believe to be more likely. In short, the application of the
precautionary
principle should be subject to the same simple cost-benefit
analysis, which
we also apply in all other fields of human decision-making.
Stagnation
Over the last decade or so, the precautionary principle has been
given more
priority than before, especially in Europe. Even to the extent
that The
European Commissioner for Health and Consumer Affairs, David
Byrne, has
reluctantly raised the question whether Europe wasn't
exaggerating a little
bit and had perhaps fallen victim to a certain degree of risk
paranoia. But
his attempts to do something about it in order to remedy what he
has called
the European 'GMO-psychosis' (GMO = genetically modified
organisms), have
mainly faltered so far.
Also his colleague for trade, Pascal Lamy, is troubled by this
phenomenon,
particularly because there exist important differences in risk
appreciation
between the US and the EU. These give rise to trade tensions, for
instance
as regards the use of growth hormones for meat and the use of
GMOs in
vegetable food production.
In the US people have been eating GMO food for years without any
health
problems. In Europe it is perceived as Frankenstein-food. This
has a negative impact on
the mutual trade relations. Americans see this as the umpteenth
proof of
European protectionism. This feeling is reinforced by the fact
that European
cheese, wine and beer are being enriched with genetically
modified enzymes,
without anybody bothering about it.
In a recent paper on the precautionary principle, Jaap Hanekamp
of the
Foundation Heidelberg Appeal Netherlands (which aims at providing
the
public, media and politics with objective information on the
environment,
biotechnology and similar fields) notes that the precautionary
principle is
ambivalent vis-à-vis scientific knowledge and capabilities. On
the one hand
it emphasises that there are limits to scientific knowledge and
that this
knowledge is fraught with uncertainties: the quintessence of the
justification of the precautionary principle! On the other hand,
the
precautionary principle requires scientific demonstration of
absolute safety
when new products or processes are being introduced. On balance,
however,
overcautiousness suppresses scientific knowledge in favour of
political
considerations, false beliefs and irrational fears. Excessive
application of
the precautionary principle prevents action until there is
complete
certainty that it will not produce any harm. But 100% safety can
never be
guaranteed. The result is paralysis and stagnation.
Trial and Error
The precautionary principle, moreover, turns a blind eye to the
costs or
damage of the preservation of the technological status quo. The
risks of
existing products and processes are taken for granted and are not
subjected
to the same rigorous tests. But economic growth is primarily due
to
innovation and the development of technology. When these are
obstructed,
economic growth will decline which will also entail risks.
There is no progress without risks. Excessive application of the
precautionary principle limits the possibilities for trial and
error that
are critical ingredients of progress. An example where the
application of
the precautionary principle has been harmful to society is the
reduction of
the use of DDT in the Third World, which has led to the
re-emergence of
malaria. The precautionary principle is also responsible for the
impediments
concerning the application of GMOs in the food production of the
developing
countries. These could promote the production of safer and
cheaper food,
with more nutritional value, which contributes to the alleviation
of hunger
in the world. Additionally, GMOs could contribute to stem
worldwide
deforestation, because it raises the productivity of land already
in
cultivation.
Ambition
In short, overzealous application of the precautionary principle
may lead to
the stifling of innovation, impediments to trade, and the loss of
human
lives. If the precautionary principle in the past would have been
applied in
the same way as today, we would not have been able to enjoy
amenities such
as motor cars, railways, aeroplanes, drugs etc., which make
modern life much
more comfortable and interesting than life in ancient times.
As has been mentioned before, Europe takes a more strict stance
than the US
as regards the application of the precautionary principle. At the
same time,
the EU, at its Summit in Lisbon in 2000, has publicly declared
its ambition
to become the most competitive, dynamic, knowledge-based economy
in the
world in ten years time. It seems that Europe still has to
considerably
readjust its current policies to close the gap between these two
objectives.
Hans H.J. Labohm is senior visiting fellow at the Netherlands
Institute of
International Relations, 'Clingendael, in The Hague.
Copyright 2003, Tech Central Station
============================
* LETTERS TO THE MODERATOR *
============================
(11) GLOBAL WARMING AND COLD SPELLS
>From Michael Paine <mpaine@tpg.com.au>
Dear Benny
"Fewer frost days, cold days and cold waves are very likely
over nearly all
land areas." (IPCC 2001)
The operative word is "fewer", which does not mean
"less severe". The
current cold snap in the northern hemisphere is matched by a very
severe
drought in the southern hemisphere and both are probably linked
to the El
Nino effect in the Pacific. One of the predicted consequences of
global warming is greater extremes of weather. This is
clearly set out in
the following web pages (also from 2001): Higher ocean
temperatures linked
to cooling in Midwest
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2001-01/UoIa-Hotl-1801101.php
The eastern U.S. keeps its cool while the world warms
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2001-01/NSFC-TeUk-1401101.php
This appears to be happening at present BUT one season does not
prove a
thing one way or the other.
regards
Michael Paine
==========
(12) AND FINALLY: CORRIGER LA FORTUNE. FRANCE WANTS TO BURY CO2
EMISSIONS
>From Environment Daily, 16 January 2003
http://www.environmentdaily.com/articles/index.cfm
French environment minister Roselyne Bachelot yesterday said that
carbon
sequestration in agricultural ground could be used as part of a
national
programme to cut greenhouse gas emissions, news agency AFP has
reported. The
announcement followed release of an official report concluding
that up to 2%
of French carbon dioxide emissions could be stored underground,
helping
France meet its Kyoto protocol commitment to maintain emissions
at 1990
levels.
In its report for the environment ministry, France's national
agricultural
research institute (Inra) suggests that between one and five
million tonnes
of carbon annually could be stored in the ground over the next 20
years.
This method of carbon sequestration could make a key contribution
to
France's climate change strategy, as it was by no means certain
that the
country would meet its Kyoto target, Inra said. Similar
uncertainty over the
French target was voiced last year by the national climate change
commission.
Nevertheless, Inra warned of major uncertainties over the
predicted success
of the technology. As well as requiring major changes in current
land-use
and agricultural practices, it did not offer a long-term solution
to dealing
with increasing greenhouse gas emissions, it added.
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