PLEASE NOTE:
*
CCNet 11/2001 - 24 January 2001
------------------------------
"Japanese scientists have found 3,554 meteorites in
Antarctica
during a three-week search -- a collection that could yield clues
about
the rest of our solar system, a government official said Tuesday.
"Such
a large number of meteorites discovered may include some rare
ones that
could help in finding the origin of the solar system, or the
possibility of
any traces of life on other planets."
--Shigeru Kure, Japanese Science Ministry, 23 January 2001
"In a nutshell, Pluto likely would not be considered a
planet if it
were discovered today."
--Bernie Walp, Extrasolar Planetary Search Team, Berkeley
(1) JAPANESE TEAM FINDS 3,544 METEORITES
Ron Baalke <baalke@jpl.nasa.gov>
(2) SIZE MAKES ROCK STARS DIM
Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>
(3) NEAR SHOEMAKER CLOSING IN ON EROS
Astronomy.com News, 23 January 2001
(4) PLUTO: THE PLANET THAT USED TO BE
Wired News, 23 January 2001
(5) MYSTERIOUS GLOW IN THE SKIES OF VENUS PUZZLES SCIENTISTS
Clark Whelton <cwhelton@mindspring.com>
(6) RUSSIAN SPACE MISSION SEEKS TO AVOID MIR DISASTER
Silicon Valley News, 23 January 2001
(7) METEOR: GEWALTIGE EXPLOSION UBER DEUTSCHLAND [MASSIVE
EXPLOSION OVER
GERMANY]
Der Spiegel, 23 January 2001
(8) THE SPACEWATCH SURVEY FOR CENTAURS & TRANS-NEPTUNIAN
OBJECTS
J.A. Larsen et al.
===========
(1) JAPANESE TEAM FINDS 3,544 METEORITES
From Ron Baalke <baalke@jpl.nasa.gov>
From Space.com, 23 January 2001
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/antarctic_meteors_010123_wg.html
TOKYO (AP) -- Japanese scientists have found 3,554 meteorites in
Antarctica
during a three-week search -- a collection that could yield clues
about the
rest of our solar system, a government official said Tuesday.
The finds were made around the Yamato mountain range about 185
miles (300
kilometers) from Japan's base on the rim of Antarctica, said
Shigeru Kure of
Japan's science ministry.
A meteorite is a meteor that survives the destructive effects of
a flight
through the atmosphere and falls to the ground whole or in
pieces.
Six members of the Japanese observation team took part in the
latest search
conducted between Nov. 19 and Jan. 10, Kure said.
"Such a large number of meteorites discovered may include
some rare ones
that could help in finding the origin of the solar system, or the
possibility of any traces of life on other planets,'' Kure said.
In 1998, a total of 4,180 fallen meteors were discovered by the
Japanese
team in Antarctica -- the largest number found in a single
search, Kure
said.
To date, Japanese observation teams have found about 13,000
meteorites in
Antarctica, about half of all found there.
Copyright 2001, Space.com
==============
(2) SIZE MAKES ROCK STARS DIM
From Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>
[ http://www.nature.com/nsu/010125/010125-6.html
]
Tuesday 23 January 2001
Size makes rock stars dim
By PHILIP BALL
Sherlock Holmes once famously solved a mystery by making
deductions from an
absence. In the story 'Silver Blaze', a guard dog failed to bark
because the
crime was committed by the dog's master at his own house.
Two astronomers have now used the same reasoning to deepen our
understanding
of the cloud of icy debris that surrounds the Solar System.
Unless this
debris developed in a particular manner, they argue, it would now
be filling
the night sky with a silver blaze of its own [1].
Scott Kenyon of the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory in
Cambridge,
Massachusetts, and Rogier Windhorst of Arizona State University
have
revisited the old astronomical conundrum, why is the night sky
dark?
Known as Olbers's paradox, after the German astronomer Heinrich
Wilhelm
Olbers, the problem is this: the Universe is thought to be so
large and so
full of stars that starlight should reach the Earth from every
point in the
sky. Rather than a velvety blackness adorned with pinpricks of
light, the
night sky should be ablaze. But it isn't, mainly because the
Universe is not
old enough for the light from most of the stars in it to have
reached us
yet.
Kenyon and Windhorst now point out that there is also a 'local'
Olbers's
paradox. Beyond the orbit of the planet Neptune, our Solar System
is
encircled by rubble. Known collectively as the 'Kuiper belt'
(after the
Dutch-American astronomer Gerard Kuiper), this rubble consists of
at least
70,000 lumps of rock and ice larger than 100 kilometres across,
and
countless smaller ones.
These 'Kuiper belt objects' (KBOs) are thought to be leftovers
from the
formation of the planets, which themselves aggregated from such
wandering
boulders. Most KBOs are too small and far away to be seen from
Earth. But as
many are coated in ice, they reflect sunlight quite strongly.
And herein lies the paradox. Observations of KBOs show that small
ones are
more numerous than large ones, just as a shattered brick produces
a few
large lumps, lots of small ones, and countless grains of dust. If
this
relationship between size and abundance of KBOs held true down to
the very
smallest grains, then these would be so numerous that they would
reflect
huge amounts of sunlight -- turning the night sky bright.
Clearly, they do not light up the night. Kenyon and Windhorst
have used this
'evidence of absence' to deduce how the size relationship must
change as
KBOs get smaller. The researchers calculate that a new
relationship must
apply to KBOs less than 1 kilometre across if their reflection of
sunlight
is not to exceed the measured 'background' brightness of the sky.
This relationship is also constrained by the observed infrared
glow from the
night sky, as KBOs also emit infrared radiation because they are
warmed by
sunlight. Without a change in the size relationship for small
objects, the
sky would be glowing like an electric heater.
The researchers say that this difference between large (over 1 km
across)
and small KBOs supports the idea that the visible KBOs grew
through the
merging of smaller objects in collisions. Theoretical studies of
such a
process show the same kind of change in the relationship between
size and
number as the objects get smaller, they point out. This change
seems to
happen because bodies smaller than about a kilometre across do
not merge
when they collide.
[1] Kenyon, S. I. & Windhorst, R. A. The Kuiper belt and
Olbers's paradox.
Astrophysical Journal 547, L5778 (2001).
© Macmillan Magazines Ltd 2001 - NATURE NEWS SERVICE
=================
(3) NEAR SHOEMAKER CLOSING IN ON EROS
From Astronomy.com News, 23 January 2001
http://www2.astronomy.com/Content/Dynamic/Articles/000/000/000/282pybyl.asp
The asteroid-orbiting spacecraft is making a couple of final
approaches to
Eros before the mission's end next month.
by Vanessa Thomas
This week, the NEAR Shoemaker spacecraft will make two approaches
of the
21-mile-long (34-kilometer-long) asteroid Eros. With only three
weeks left
in the mission, planetary scientists are taking advantage of
every last
data-collecting opportunity.
Throughout January, NEAR Shoemaker has been circling 22 miles (35
kilometers) above Eros. This distance is perfect for the
spacecraft's
X-ray/Gamma-Ray Spectrometer (XGRS), which allows scientists to
study the
elemental composition above and below the asteroid's surface.
Earlier in the
mission, x-ray emissions revealed chemical resemblances between
Eros's upper
layers and chondritic meteorites, believed to be the most
primitive fossils
of the early solar system. The gamma-ray instrument will examine
emissions
produced by cosmic rays and natural radioactivity, disclosing
secrets buried
even deeper below the asteroid's gray exterior.
"The gamma-ray spectrometer allows us to see about four
inches below the
surface," said XGRS team leader Jack Trombka. "This is
helping us determine
if the chemistry we've seen so far is characteristic of the whole
asteroid
or just the thin, top layer."
The x-ray observations are also benefiting from the current peak
of the
sun's 11-year solar cycle. The x-ray spectrometer can get its
best data when
large solar flares emit more x rays that, in turn, produce
brighter
reflections off the surface of Eros. But these flares can be
dangerous as
well. Exceptionally large solar flares and coronal mass ejections
can thrust
high-energy particles at the spacecraft, overloading the XGRS.
"Too much current will fry the detectors - like burning out
the filament in
a light bulb," Trombka explained. "Fortunately, the
spacecraft senses this
and shuts the instrument down when things get too hot. The
on-board computer
can automatically turn XGRS back on when the current returns to
safe levels,
or await word from operators on Earth to activate it. The system
has worked
like a dream so far and we've had some excellent results."
On Wednesday, January 24, NEAR Shoemaker will drop to an orbit
that will
bring it within 3 or 4 miles (5 or 6 kilometers) of the
potato-shaped
asteroid's ends. Four days later, the spacecraft will make its
closest
approach yet, flying just 1 to 2 miles (2 to 3 kilometers) above
Eros. "The
maneuvers are kind of risky, but we want to end the mission
getting a lot of
bonus science - with images better than we've ever taken,"
said NEAR
Shoemaker's mission director, Robert Farquhar.
The observations will end just two days short of Near Shoemaker's
one-year
anniversary around Eros. On February 12, the craft will make a
controlled
descent to the asteroid's surface, capturing high-resolution
images along
the way. Before it touches down onto Eros's "saddle"
region, NEAR Shoemaker
could expose details as small as four inches (10 centimeters)
across.
Copyright © 1996-2001 Kalmbach Publishing Co.
===================
(4) PLUTO: THE PLANET THAT USED TO BE
From Wired News, 23 January 2001
http://www.wired.com/news/technology/0,1282,41328,00.html
by Jeffrey Terraciano
My Very Educated Mother Just Served Us Nine Pizzas. Back in the
day, that
was a popular acronym to help children remember the names of the
nine
planets in the solar system.
Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune,
Pluto.
That might have to be amended to something like: My Very Educated
Mother
Just Served Us Nothing.
Yes, the great and distant Pluto is having its status as a planet
called
into question.
Already, the Rose Center for Earth and Space, which is part of
the American
Museum of Natural History, appears to have rescinded Pluto's
planethood. In
its Hayden Planetarium, the Rose Center displays photos of the
other eight
planets but neglects to mention Pluto.
But the International Astronomical Union still thinks Pluto is a
planet.
Last February, the union went so far as to issue a press release
stating
that, despite rumors to the contrary, it would not change Pluto's
status as
a planet.
Meanwhile, many astronomers admit that while they still call
Pluto a planet,
they do so only because of historical precedent: It's been part
of the
world's consciousness for more than 70 years. The suddenly
much-maligned
celestial body -- 3.7 billion miles from the sun -- was
discovered in 1930
by the then quite-thrilled Clyde Tombaugh.
With a diameter of 1,430 miles, it is less than half the size of
the next
smallest planet in the solar system -- Mercury, at 3,050 miles --
and just a
speck compared to Earth's diameter of about 8,000 miles.
"This is really a question of semantics," said Derek
Richardson, an
assistant professor at the University of Maryland.
Like many other astronomers, Richardson said Pluto's planethood
is being
questioned because of new discoveries and changing definitions.
"I'm always going to call Pluto a planet," said
Richardson. "But I recognize
that it has much in common with Plutinos."
It is these Plutinos that are the focal point of this debate.
Plutinos are
objects that orbit the sun beyond the orbit of Neptune. They are
thought to
be similar in composition to comets, but their orbital patterns
resemble
Pluto's. However, most of them are much smaller than Pluto.
Plutinos are also known in some cases as Trans-Neptunal objects
(TNOs) or
Kuiper Belt objects (KBOs). This may help explain the origin of
the
definitional hang-ups.
For poor Pluto, though, the bad news is that more and more
Plutinos are
popping up.
In 1992, two professors discovered the first of these objects and
named it
QB1. Since then, about 100 have been discovered.
Because of the similarities between Pluto and TNOs, some
researchers are
suggesting that Pluto is simply the biggest TNO and not, in fact,
a planet.
As more TNOs are found, the line between planet and non-planet
becomes more
and more obscure.
"In a nutshell, Pluto likely would not be considered a
planet if it were
discovered today," said Bernie Walp, an assistant for the
Extrasolar
Planetary Search team at Berkeley.
The first issue that many astronomers mention is size. Pluto is
not only the
smallest planet in the solar system, but it's smaller than seven
of the
moons in the solar system (Earth's moon; Jupiter's Io, Europa,
Ganymede and
Callisto; Saturn's Titan; and Neptune's Triton). While size is
not all that
matters, it is one factor by which scientists define planets.
This is an argument being fought at the fringes. And it is not
just small
planets that are under attack. Famed planet-finder Geoffrey
Marcy, an
astronomer at the University of California at Berkeley, recently
discovered
an object 17 times as massive as Jupiter.
Marcy is calling the object a planet, but many scientists argue
that the
object is in fact a brown dwarf or a failed star. They say it is
too large
to be considered a planet.
In much the same way, recent discoveries of larger TNOs call into
question
the minimum size of a planet. As Alan Boss, a professor at the
Carnegie
Institute of Washington, said, "If Pluto is a planet, then
why don't we call
something that is half the size of Pluto, but has all of the same
characteristics, a planet?"
Another issue raised in this debate involves Pluto's orbit. Every
other
planet orbits the sun in a common plane, forming a disc that
expands out
from the Sun. Pluto's orbit, on the other hand, is tilted at a
17-degree
angle to the disc.
Pluto's orbit is also much more oblong than those of the other
planets. The
course of Pluto's orbit suggests that of a comet, cutting across
the path of
Neptune much like Halley's Comet crosses the Earth's orbit.
Most importantly, Richardson said, Pluto's orbit seems to be in
"resonance"
with Neptune's. Pluto orbits the sun approximately twice for
every three
times Neptune does so.
Richardson said that, in itself, this is not such an odd
phenomenon.
However, many TNOs orbit at the same rate as Pluto, which
suggests that
Pluto is more like TNOs than planets.
Many astronomers postulate that Pluto and TNOs are being held in
orbit by
both Neptune and the sun, leaving them in a gray area between
being
classified as moons, comets or planets.
Alan Boss compares the Pluto dilemma to that of Ceres, one of the
biggest
asteroids in the solar system. Boss said that when scientists
first
discovered Ceres -- on the first day of the 19th century,
incidentally --
they called it a planet.
However, as more asteroids were discovered, Ceres' classification
as a
planet became much less stable. Eventually it was revoked, mostly
because
scientists realized that if Ceres were a planet, then many other
asteroids
would have to be called planets.
"It's a similar situation with Pluto. We are suddenly
discovering bodies out
there beyond Neptune that are similar to Pluto. As we learn more
about these
bodies, we try to reclassify what they are and what Pluto is on
the fly."
The debate, then, seems to come down to opinion. Because there is
no
concrete definition for what constitutes a planet, the argument
could go
either way.
"Astronomers cannot come up with a consensus on what a
planet is," said
Boss. "As we learn new things, we have to constantly change
our definitions.
Historically speaking, Pluto is a planet because it has been
called a planet
since it was discovered."
Richardson seems to agree with this assessment.
"This is more of an emotional argument than an intellectual
argument," said
Richardson. "The people who discovered Pluto were looking
for planets. When
they found it, they were in that mindset and declared it a
planet. That
label stuck with Pluto."
Pluto remains the only planet that has not been visited by a
probe of some
kind. Rick Sanjour, a lecturer at the California Academy of
Sciences, said
that this would clear up a lot of the existing questions.
"If we sent a probe to Pluto and it was discovered that its
composition is
similar to that of a comet, then it would probably not be
considered a
planet," said Sanjour.
While a NASA project to send a probe to Pluto is in the works --
it's been
dubbed the Pluto-Kuiper Express -- it is still pending the
necessary funds
and it would not be able to visit Pluto until 2010 at the
earliest.
Until then, Richardson believes that astronomers will continue to
find
planet-like objects that will confound all definitions for
planets.
University of Hawaii astronomer David Jewitt predicted last year
that
astronomers would find a Pluto II, Pluto III and many other
objects similar
in size and characteristics to Pluto in the next few years.
"It is almost a certainty that we will find more large
objects out there,"
Richardson said.
Copyright 2001, Wired Magazine
===========
(5) MYSTERIOUS GLOW IN THE SKIES OF VENUS PUZZLES SCIENTISTS
From Clark Whelton <cwhelton@mindspring.com>
From the New York Times, 23 January 2001
http://www.nytimes.com/2001/01/23/science/23VENU.html
By KENNETH CHANG
What goes on in the atmosphere of Venus - above, below and within
its clouds
of sulfuric acid - continues to puzzle scientists. Every time
they take a
look, they seem to see something different, with phenomena
appearing or
disappearing like the smile of the Cheshire Cat.
In their latest looks, they saw no signs of lightning, but did
see the faint
glow of excited oxygen atoms on the night side of Venus.
Spacecraft visiting
Venus in the 1970's found the exact opposite: signs of lightning,
but no
oxygen glow.
That leaves the scientists wondering exactly what is going on.
FULL STORY at http://www.nytimes.com/2001/01/23/science/23VENU.html
============
(6) RUSSIAN SPACE MISSION SEEKS TO AVOID MIR DISASTER
From Silicon Valley News, 23 January 2001
http://www0.mercurycenter.com/svtech/news/breaking/merc/docs/086380.htm
BAIKONUR, Kazakhstan (Reuters) - A Russian cargo vessel blasts
off for the
Mir space station Wednesday on a mission to prevent the
accident-prone
orbiter from making a catastrophic crash landing back on Earth.
Russia decided in November to ditch the space station in the
Pacific Ocean,
saying corrosion and age had taken the shine off the jewel in its
space
crown and made Mir a safety hazard.
But a series of technical glitches have bedeviled preparations
for its demise
in early March and sparked fears of an uncontrolled re-entry into
the
Earth's atmosphere.
Ground controllers were forced to postpone the current flight
last week
after a sudden power failure knocked out Mir's navigation system,
making
docking impossible.
The glitch bore uncanny echoes of a Dec. 25 power outage that cut
all links
between Mir and ground control, the worst communications
breakdown in its
15-year history.
Although contact was restored after 24 hours, unnerved space
chiefs later
admitted that they feared at one stage they would never regain
control of
the 130-tonne craft.
Moscow has already failed to control the reentry of one major
space craft.
In 1986, the Soviet Union abandoned its Salyut-7 station after
wiring
malfunctions. Its remains fell harmlessly on Argentina and Chile
in 1991.
The Progress craft, scheduled to blast off from the Baikonur
cosmodrome in
Kazakhstan at 11:28 p.m. EST Tuesday, will ferry fuel to Mir.
Space
engineers will be able to use the craft to nudge Mir out of orbit
late next
month and launch its descent.
EXTRA SUPPLIES
The Progress will also carry extra oxygen supplies in case an
emergency crew
has to be dispatched from Earth to prepare the station manually
for its
demise, space officials have said.
Russian officials say they will need up to three days to ensure
Mir is
facing the right way for Progress to dock, a procedure scheduled
for Jan.
27.
If all goes to plan, most of Mir will burn up on reentry , the
remainder
falling into the Pacific Ocean some 900-1,200 miles off
Australia.
However, Russian space officials concede that returning such a
large
structure to Earth is not an exact science, and say some debris
might strike
land.
Fragments weighing as much as 1,500 pounds could strike Earth
with enough
force to smash through reinforced concrete six feet thick,
Russia's space
chief Yury Koptev warned last November.
Mir's space marathon began Feb. 20, 1986, and the craft proceeded
to set a
host of endurance records that were the envy of the better-funded
U.S. space
program.
But in recent years Mir has experienced a string of mishaps,
including an
almost catastrophic collision with a cargo vessel, an on-board
fire and a
series of main computer failures.
When a private consortium failed to find enough cash to keep Mir
aloft, the
government signed its death warrant, heralding the end of a piece
of space
history.
Moscow will now focus its limited financial resources for space
exploration
on the $60 billion International Space Station (ISS), a 16-nation
venture
which will build on Mir's legacy.
Copyright 2001, Reuters
=================
(7) METEOR: GEWALTIGE EXPLOSION UBER DEUTSCHLAND [MASSIVE
EXPLOSION OVER
GERMANY]
From Der Spiegel, 23 January 2001
http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/0,1518,113556,00.html
Von Alexander Stirn
Das Ende war exorbitant: Im November 1999 ist ein Meteor in rund
15
Kilometern Höhe über Norddeutschland explodiert. Seismologen
haben jetzt die
Spuren der Detonation untersucht
FULL STORY at http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/0,1518,113556,00.html
=================
(8) THE SPACEWATCH SURVEY FOR CENTAURS & TRANS-NEPTUNIAN
OBJECTS
Larsen JA, Gleason AE, Danzl NM, Descour AS, McMillan RS, Gehrels
T, Jedicke
R, Montani JL, Scotti JV: The spacewatch wide-area survey for
bright
Centaurs and trans-Neptunian objects
ASTRONOMICAL JOURNAL 121: (1) 562-579 JAN 2001
We have conducted a large-area search for the brightest members
of the
trans-Neptunian and Centaur/scattered-disk asteroid populations
by
reprocessing archival scans from the Spacewatch 0.9 m telescope
at Kitt
Peak. Our survey encompasses 331 scans taken from 1995 September
to 1999
September and has a raw sky coverage of 1483.8 deg(2). We
discovered five
trans-Neptunians and five Centaur/scattered-disk objects using an
automated
motion detection code. In addition, we serendipitously found four
trans-Neptunians and two Centaur/scattered-disk objects that had
been
previously discovered. This survey is unique in that it involves
a method
that has a reasonable chance to reacquire its lost objects. In
this paper we
develop techniques to aid our understanding of our software
efficiency and
survey procedures. We use this understanding to
"convolve" our raw sky
coverage with our measured detection efficiency and a model of
our scan
coverage to estimate what fraction of survey areas can be
considered "new."
Our large sky coverage extends the cumulative luminosity function
of the
trans-Neptunians into a region previously constrained only by
upper limits,
and it allows a power-law Dt to be attempted to the Centaur
cumulative
luminosity function. In objects per square degree brighter than
R=21.5, we
find cumulative surface densities of Centaurs to be 0.017
+/-0.011, of
trans-Neptunians to be 0.040+/-0.018, and scattered-disk objects
to be
0.007+/-0.004. We extrapolate these values to estimate the number
of each
class in the ecliptic brighter than R=21.5 : 100 Centaurs, 400
trans-Neptunians, and 70 scattered-disk objects. Orbit analysis
by the Minor
Planet Center suggests that three of our five trans-Neptunians
are
resonators : 1998 VG(44) is in the 3 : 2, 1995 SM55 appears to be
in the
5:3, and 1998 SN165 appears to be in the 7 : 5 resonance.
Addresses:
Larsen JA, Univ Arizona, Lunar & Planetary Lab, Tucson, AZ
85712 USA.
Univ Arizona, Lunar & Planetary Lab, Tucson, AZ 85712 USA.
Copyright © 2001 Institute for Scientific Information
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*
CCNet CLIMATE CHANGE & CLIMATE SCARES - 24 January 2001
-------------------------------------------------------
"The facts are simple. The Little Optimum and Little Ice Age
were
real. They were also widespread over the globe. The twentieth
century is
not the least bit climatically unusual. So why the recent media
hysteria that the twentieth century is the warmest of the last
1,000
years?"
--Sallie Baliunas and Willie Soon, Harvard-Smithsonian
Center for Astrophysics
"In the last month alone, serious scientific studies have
undermined
the whole basis of these predictions, with the temperature over
the
oceans seen as exaggerated by up to 40% and the very relationship
between carbon dioxide and temperature questioned."
--Philip Stott, University of London
(1) LITTLE GLOBAL-SCALE WARMING SEEN DURING PAST 22 YEARS
UniSci, 17 January 2001
(2) U.N. OFFICIAL CLAIMS GLOBAL WARMING "VERY
DRAMATIC", PREDICTS DISASTERS
IN AFRICA
The New York Times, 24 January 2001
(3) NEW GLOBAL WARMING SUMMARY REPORT IS JUST POLITICAL SPIN
Environmental News Network, 22 January 2001
(4) GLOBAL WARMING 'NOT CLEAR CUT'
BBC News Online, 22 January, 2001
(5) RECENT WARMING IS NOT HISTORICALLY UNIQUE
Environment & Climate News, January 2001
(6) EUROPE'S SATELLITES TRACK CLIMATE CHANGES
Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>
(7) SCIENTISTS FIND EVIDENCE OF GLOBAL COOLING
Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>
(8) A CENTURY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE CENTAL U.S.
CO2 Science, 24 January 2001
(9) CLIMATE CHANGE OVER LAST 3 MILLION YEARS
Michael Paine <mpaine@tpgi.com.au>
(10) COLD WINTER COULD PUT U.S. ECONOMY ON ICE
Yahoo News, 20 January 2001
(11) CALIFORNIA BLACKOUTS: A PREVIEW OF KYOTO
S. Fred Singer <singer@sepp.org>
(12) THE COMING ELECTRICITY POWER CRISIS
W Kenneth Davis (former US Deputy
Secretary of Energy)
(13) AND FINALLY: HYSTERICAL MEDIA REPORTS ABOUT IPCC WARMING
PROPHECIES
==========
(1) LITTLE GLOBAL-SCALE WARMING SEEN DURING PAST 22 YEARS
From UniSci, 17 January 2001
http://unisci.com/stories/20011/0117012.htm
Freshly updated global temperature measurements combined with
evidence from
new research continues to show little global-scale warming of the
atmosphere
during the past 22 years, a scientist from The University of
Alabama in
Huntsville (UAH) reported on Monday.
"In looking at all of the pieces of the puzzle, we see a
picture of the past
22 years that we hadn't anticipated -- that the bulk of the
atmosphere has
shown very little warming," said Dr. John Christy, a
professor of
atmospheric science and director of UAH's Earth System Science
Center. "We
see warming over the northern third of the globe both at the
surface and in
the five-mile-deep layer of air above.
"For the bulk of the atmosphere, however, we see a general
cooling trend
over the remaining two-thirds of the globe, from 20 degrees north
latitude
to the South Pole."
Christy's discussion of the data, part of an update related to
the United
Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2001
Assessment, came on
Tuesday in Albuquerque, NM, at the annual meeting of the American
Meteorological Society. Christy is one of eight "lead
authors" of the 2001
report. He serves as a lead author for the chapter on observed
climate
variability and change.
"For people living north of 20 degrees north, which includes
most of the
world's population, the perception of warming over the past 22
years is
real, both at the surface and in the air above," Christy
said. "But that
isn¹t seen on a global scale for the bulk of the
atmosphere."
Recent research provides new pieces to a global climate puzzle
that has gone
unsolved since eleven years ago, when Christy and Dr. Roy
Spencer, a NASA
space scientist at the National Space Science and Technology
Center,
developed a technique to use NOAA satellites to monitor
temperatures in the
atmosphere.
Satellite measurements of temperatures in the troposphere, the
lowest five
miles of the atmosphere, as well as independent measurements from
balloons,
show no evidence of significant global-scale warming.
That's at odds with surface temperature records, which show
warming during
the same period of time. The apparent disagreement between the
two datasets
has been the source of scientific investigation and controversy.
The recent research includes regional comparisons of temperature
trends from
both surface readings and satellite data. That analysis found
that the
surface and satellite long-term climate trends match for North
America,
Europe and Australia -- regions with extensive and reliable
networks for
gathering air temperatures.
"However, where a significant fraction of the data is sea
surface
temperatures rather than air temperatures, the surface
measurements tend to
show significantly more warming than the tropospheric
temperatures," Christy
said.
Other research included an analysis of temperature data gathered
by buoys
scattered around the tropical Pacific Ocean. Each buoy has
thermometers
measuring temperatures of both the sea surface at one meter depth
and the
air three meters above the sea surface.
For each buoy, the long-term climate trend reported by each
instrument was
different. For multi-buoy averages, the difference between air
and sea
climate trends was as much as 0.15 degrees Celsius per decade
over a span of
only four meters.
"A detailed examination of temperatures just above the sea
surface and at
the sea surface for the tropical third of the globe shows that
the air right
next to the sea surface isn't warming as fast as the water,"
Christy said.
"The weight of this new research result adds evidence that
the satellite and
balloon-based climate records are reliable. They also raise
questions about
the viability of sea surface temperatures as a proxy for tracking
air
temperature variations over long time periods."
Traditionally, sea water temperatures have been used for tracking
climate
changes over the oceans because problems related to sea
temperature
measurement by ships were believed to be less troublesome than
problems
related to measuring air temperatures on deck.
Air temperature data gathered at sea can experience exposure
problems,
including heat contamination from a ship¹s superstructure or the
varying
altitude of thermometers from ship to ship. Water temperature
data are
subject to vagaries including varying depths at which the water
is collected
and different types of measuring systems, from buckets to engine
intakes.
Earlier, Christy and others used data gathered using weather
balloons to
confirm the accuracy of satellite readings of temperatures in the
troposphere. If the new data shows that the satellite
measurements are
accurate over regions where there is reliable surface temperature
data, that
implies the satellite sensors are also accurate and reliable over
the rest
of the globe, although atmospheric and surface trends may vary
for specific
regions.
This may improve the scientific community's confidence in the
satellite
data, which cover more than 95 percent of the globe, Christy
said. The
satellite data coverage includes remote ocean, desert and
wilderness regions
for which climate data are either scarce or not available at all.
During the past 22 years, the satellite dataset shows a warming
trend of
about 0.22 degrees C (0.4 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade for the
northern
third of the globe, Christy said. That covers the area from the
North Pole
to 20 degrees north latitude, including all of North America,
Cuba and most
of Mexico, all of Europe, the northern half of Saharan Africa and
most of
Asia.
The satellite data show that the atmosphere over the southern
two-thirds of
the globe has actually cooled by about 0.04 degrees C per decade
over the
past 22 years.
Looked at as a composite, the satellites show a
"global" warming trend of
about 0.04 degrees C per decade -- with the bulk of that warming
concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere.
Copyright © 1995-2001 UniSci. All rights reserved.
============
(2) U.N. OFFICIAL CLAIMS GLOBAL WARMING "VERY
DRAMATIC", PREDICTS MAJOR
DISASTERS IN AFRICA
From The New York Times, 24 January 2001
http://www.nytimes.com/2001/01/24/science/24reuters-climate.html
By REUTERS
AIROBI, Kenya - Africa may face more natural disasters if the
world's main
economic powers do not ratify a key protocol on climate change as
soon as
possible, the top United Nations environmentalist said Tuesday.
Klaus Toepfer, executive director of the U.N. Environment Program
(UNEP),
was speaking after scientists released a report this week warning
that
average global temperatures could rise 5.8 percent in the 21st
century.
"It is a very dramatic situation," he told a news
conference in the Kenyan
capital Nairobi, where the UNEP is based. "The evidence is
absolutely clear
that the speed of global warming is going faster and
faster."
FULL STORY at
http://www.nytimes.com/2001/01/24/science/24reuters-climate.html
=============
(3) NEW GLOBAL WARMING SUMMARY REPORT IS JUST POLITICAL SPIN
From Environmental News Network, 22 January 2001
http://www.enn.com/direct/display-release.asp?id=3184
Statement by Myron Ebell, Director of Global Warming and
International
Environmental Policy
From Competitive Enterprise Institute
Monday, January 22, 2001
WASHINGTON, D.C. - Today's release of the "Summary for
Policymakers" by the
United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has
everything to
do with political spin and very little to do with climate
science. The
18-page Summary is not a fair or accurate summary of the IPCC's
full Third
Assessment Report, which is over one-thousand pages long and
which has not
yet been released in final form.
The IPCC's Summary for Policymakers claims that the earth's
temperature will
rise much faster than previously forecast and that the twentieth
century was
the warmest in the past thousand years. Neither of these claims
can be
substantiated from the available data. The totality of proxy
records, such
as tree ring data, shows that the past century was not the
warmest in the
past millennium. Moreover, proxy records for recent decades are
in agreement
with satellite and balloon temperature data that show no
significant warming
in the past twenty years.
The Summary's scary predictions of much faster warming are based
on
discredited global climate computer models. The climate
scientists who wrote
the Third Assessment Report have become so doubtful of these
global climate
models that they did not use them to produce a prediction of
future global
warming, but instead provided forty possible scenarios. The
political
spinners who wrote the Summary for Policymakers simply chose to
include the
scariest scenarios in their Summary.
The Clinton-Gore Administration worked for five years to make
sure that the
Summary for Policymakers would be politically useful to
supporters of the
Kyoto global warming treaty. The Kyoto Protocol would require
huge
reductions in energy consumption and much higher energy prices.
The Bush
campaign pledged to reverse the Clinton-Gore Administration's
disastrous
anti-energy policies of the past eight years and to oppose the
Kyoto
Protocol. As part of fulfilling those promises, the new Bush
Administration
should now demand that political operatives be taken out of the
UN IPCC
process and that scientists should be put in charge of preparing
both the
Fourth Assessment Report and its Summary for Policymakers.
CEI, a non-profit, non-partisan public policy group founded in
1984, is
dedicated to the principles of free enterprise and limited
government. For
more information, please contact Richard Morrison, associate
director of
media relations, at rmorrison@cei.org
or 202-331-1010, ext. 266.
For more information, contact:
Richard Morrison
Competitive Enterprise Institute
202-331-1010
rmorrison@cei.org
Web site: http://www.cei.org
ENN Toolbox
Copyright © 2000 Environmental News Network Inc.
=============
(4) GLOBAL WARMING 'NOT CLEAR CUT'
From the BBC News Online, 22 January, 2001
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/sci/tech/newsid_1131000/1131275.stm
Scientists sceptical about the nature or pace of global warming
challenged
the "consensus" being presented on the issue on Monday
by researchers
working for the United Nations.
There are huge uncertainties to do with the science that goes
into the
computer models that predict the future
Meeting in Shanghai, China, the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change
(IPCC) said the Earth would warm up in the coming 100 years
faster than at
any time in the last 10,000 years. And they pointed the finger of
blame
squarely at human activities, in particular fossil-fuel burning.
The panel's Working Group One said computer models were
predicting
temperature rises of between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees Celsius over the
coming
century and sea level rises that could be measured in tens of
centimetres.
It said there was now little doubt about what was happening to
the planet's
climate and governments should act to curb greenhouse gas
emissions.
But several scientists outside the IPCC criticised what they
described as
the "arrogance" of the UN body, insisting that the
evidence for global
warming was still far from certain.
Climate uncertainties
Sir John Houghton, the former UK Met Office chief who co-chaired
the
Shanghai meeting, said that, in his view, there could no longer
be any doubt
about the human effect on climate.
Some believe indirect solar activity has a bigger impact than the
IPCC will
concede
"The evidence is certainly sufficiently strong for countries
to take action
based on what we've said," he told BBC News Online. "I
think there are very
few scientists who'd disagree with the IPCC. And most of those
who do
disagree have not published much," he added.
However, the prominent global warming sceptic Professor Philip
Stott, from
the University of London, was quick to disagree. He said recent
research had
damaged the credibility of the IPCC and its climate predictions.
"In the last month alone, serious scientific studies have
undermined the
whole basis of these predictions, with the temperature over the
oceans seen
as exaggerated by up to 40% and the very relationship between
carbon dioxide
and temperature questioned."
Political response
He added: "The IPCC models and correlations are not new;
they are re-cycled
'old hat'. It is essentially a political response to the collapse
of The
Hague climate talks."
Professor Stott said computer models presented various
"stories" or
scenarios and people should not see them as outcomes that were
bound to
happen.
"There are over 40 such stories; inevitably, of course, the
media selects
the very worst storyline," he said.
His concerns were echoed by Professor David Unwin, an
environmental
scientist at Birkbeck College, London. He said the IPCC was
guilty of
glossing over many of the uncertainties in climate science.
"These uncertainties are never really made explicit,"
he said. "The IPCC
will give you error bars but there are huge uncertainties to do
with the
science that goes into the computer models that predict the
future."
He said the models had progressively drawn back from the real
doomsday
scenarios of a few years ago as climate processes had become
better
understood and incorporated into calculations. "And in my
view, and in the
view of many other scientists, this refinement has a long way to
go."
Weather hazards
Professor Unwin said the IPCC, in becoming "fixated on the
control of carbon
dioxide as a measure to tackle global warming", had allowed
other issues
such as energy conservation and cleaner air to slip off the
agenda.
"And it has made light of all the other levers that society
could pull to
aid and adapt its way out of the problem that we may or may not
have. All
the social science evidence on weather hazards shows that, by and
large,
trying to modify the hazard isn't a strategy that works.
Piers Corbyn of Weather Action, a company that provides long-term
forecasts
to UK industry, claimed the IPCC had quite simply got it wrong.
Corbyn, like
a large group of solar scientists, believes the UN body has
underestimated
some of the indirect effects of the Sun on the Earth's climate.
"Particles and magnetic effects from the Sun are the
decisive influence that
controls world temperatures," he said. "The evidence
can be seen in the
graphic representation of geomagnetic activity plotted alongside
world
temperatures. The two correlate very closely.
"I think there is a political agenda here. There is a lobby
which makes
money out of global warming promotion and research, and
governments around
the world collect taxes on the back of it all. If governments are
serious,
they should support research into solar effects."
Copyright 2001, BBC
=================
(5) RECENT WARMING IS NOT HISTORICALLY UNIQUE
From Environment & Climate News, January 2001
http://www.heartland.org/environment/jan01/unique.htm
by Sallie Baliunas Ph.D. and Willie Soon Ph.D.
Like leaves on trees the race of man is found,
Now green in youth,
now withering on the ground:
Another race the following spring supplies:
They fall successive, and successive rise
--Homer, Iliad, Book VI, Line 181
Recent news coverage portrays the twentieth century as the
meanest, baddest,
hottest century of the last 1,000 years--all because of a
human-induced rise
in atmospheric carbon dioxide. But is it so?
By 1965, the great British climatologist Hubert H. Lamb had
synthesized
indications of past warm and cold periods spread over the world:
. . . [M]ultifarious evidence of a meteorological nature from
historical records, as well as archaeological, botanical, and
glaciological evidence in various parts of the world from the
Arctic
to New Zealand . . . has been found to suggest a warmer epoch
lasting
several centuries between about A.D. 900 or 1000 and about 1200
or
1300. . . . Both the "Little Optimum" in the early
Middle Ages and the
cold epochs [i.e., "Little Ice Age" --Editors], now
known to have
reached its culminating stages between 1550 and 1700, can today
be
substantiated by enough data to repay meteorological
investigation. . . .
In more than three decades of attentive research Lamb's optimism
has
blossomed into facts about the last 1,000 years' climate change.
With better
tools and techniques, researchers have gathered comprehensive
information
about past climate change from proxies such as tree rings,
pollen, coral,
glaciers, boreholes, and sea sediments sampled worldwide.
According to the reconstructed records, people in many parts of
the world
experienced a relative warmth early in the millennium, called the
Little
Optimum (LO), and a cool period a few centuries later, labeled
the Little
Ice Age (LIA).
Examples are geographically widespread and numerous. In central
Argentina
during the LO, glaciers retreated and the plains regions turned
warm and
humid. During the LIA, glaciers advanced and the plains became
cooler and
semi-arid.
Study of the cultivation of subtropical citrus trees and herbs
shows
Northeast China had a temperature about 1C higher than today
between 1100
and 1200 A.D. That same region felt the chill of the LIA between
1550 and
1750 A.D., and that period was the coldest of the last 2000
years, according
to oxygen isotope measurements in peat cellulose.
The temperature in the interior of South Africa was higher by 3C
during the
LO and lower by 1C during the LIA compared with today, based on
measurements
of carbon and oxygen isotopes in stalagmites.
The surface temperature of the Sargasso Sea in the North Atlantic
exhibited
a 1C rise 1,000 years ago and 1C decrease about 400 years ago, as
shown by
the level of the oxygen isotope in seafloor sediments.
Borehole measurements into the Greenland ice sheet indicate a
temperature 1C
higher around 1000 A.D. and 1C cooler between 1500 and 1850 A.D.
Other
borehole measurements made worldwide confirm a warmth during the
LO as high
as 0.5 C above present temperatures and as low as 0.7C below
current values
during the LIA.
In western Europe, documentary evidence describes the moderation
of harsh
winters from 900 to 1300 A.D. relative to those from 1300 to
1900. During
the LO, atypical subtropical plants such as olive trees grew in
the Po
valley of Northern Italy, and fig trees near Cologne, Germany.
More information gathered around the world confirms anomalous
climate
conditions during the Little Ice Age and Little Optimum. For
example, in
northwestern Minnesota, lake sediments reveal dustier, and
therefore
probably much windier, conditions during the LIA than today.
Other studies
examine such evidence as tree growth ranging from the near
Arctic, Siberia,
and Alaska to Chile, New Zealand, and Tasmania; documentary and
glacier
evidence worldwide; pollen and phenological indicators in China;
and lake
fossils in Africa and the U.S. Great Plains.
The concordance of those diverse climate indicators over the
world says that
the twentieth century was not unusually warm compared with
earlier times.
Cambridge University researchers write that the medieval warming
"was a
global event occurring between about 900 and 1250 A.D., possibly
interrupted
by a minor re-advance of ice between about 1050 and 1150
A.D."
Other researchers state, "Extreme [climate] events in the
[South African]
record show distinct teleconnections with similar events in other
parts of
the world, in both the northern and southern hemispheres."
A scientist from Stockholm University concludes, "The
pattern of frequent
and rapid changes in climate throughout the Holocene indicates
that the
warming of the last 100 years is not a unique event and is thus
not an
indication of human impact on the climate, as is frequently
claimed."
The facts are simple. The Little Optimum and Little Ice Age were
real. They
were also widespread over the globe. The twentieth century is not
the least
bit climatically unusual. So why the recent media hysteria that
the
twentieth century is the warmest of the last 1,000 years?
Sallie Baliunas, Ph.D., and Willie Soon, Ph.D., are colleagues at
the
Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----
References:
Cioccale, M.A., 1999. Climatic fluctuation in the Central region
of
Argentina in the last 1000 years. Quaternary International, 62,
35-47.
Dahl-Jensen, D., et al., 1998. Past temperatures directly from
the Greenland
ice sheet. Science, 282, 268-271.
Dean, W.E., and A. Schwalb, 2000. Holocene environmental and
climatic change
in the Northern Great Plains as recorded in the geochemistry of
sediments in
Pickerel Lake, South Dakota. Quaternary International, 67, 5-20.
Grove, J.M., and R. Switsur, 1994. Glacial geological evidence
for the
medieval warm period. Climatic Change, 26, 143-169.
Hong, Y.T., et al., 2000. Response of climate to solar forcing
recorded in a
6000-year time-series of Chinese peat cellulose. The Holocene,
10, 1-7.
Huang, S., H.N. Pollack, and P.Y. Shen, 1997. Late quaternary
temperature
changes seen in world-wide continental heat flow measurements.
Geophysical
Research Letters, 24, 1947-1950.
Karlén, W., 1998. Climate variations and the enhanced greenhouse
effect.
Ambio, 27, 270-274.
Keigwin, L.D., 1996. The Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period
in the
Sargasso Sea. Science, 274, 1504-1508.
Lamb, H.H., 1965. The early medieval warm epoch and its sequel.
Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 1, 13-37.
Pfister, C. et al., 1998. Winter air temperature variations in
western
Europe during the Early and High Middle Ages (A.D. 7501300).
The Holocene,
8, 535-552.
Tyson, P.D., et al., 2000. The Little Ice Age and medieval
warming in South
Africa. South African Journal of Science, 96, 121-126.
===============
(6) EUROPE'S SATELLITES TRACK CLIMATE CHANGES
From Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>
ESA News
http://www.esa.int/
19 January 2001
Europe's satellites track climate changes
In June an Ariane-5 launcher will send into orbit Europe's big
new
environmental satellite, Envisat. Scientists will expect fresh
insights from
its data, into how the world is changing. The 8-tonne spacecraft
will
continue and extend the work of ESA's ERS-1 and ERS-2, which
since 1991
have established a distinctive role in watching global change,
notably in
the world's oceans and ice sheets. An important ozone monitor was
added on
ERS-2. One of the new instruments on Envisat will observe the
variations in
ocean colour due to the seasonal blooming of life, which plays a
big but
poorly understood part in controlling the amount of carbon
dioxide in the
atmosphere. Improved instruments for gauging ozone and other
trace gases are
also on board.
Yet Envisat is just the flagship of a fleet of satellites being
built in
Europe to make better sense of the possibly adverse climate
trends on the
planet that is our only home in the desert of space.
While everyone wonders about unusual weather and what it may mean
for the
future, spacecraft are the world's chief eyes on current weather
and climate
variations. Surface stations are scattered very unevenly around
the globe.
They are especially scarce in polar, oceanic and sparsely
inhabited land
regions where, some climate forecasters suggest, the greatest
changes may be
occurring. Only satellites can observe the weather and associated
climatic
and environmental changes comprehensively and objectively, day by
day and
decade by decade. So several ESA programmes converge on the
issues of
climate change.
On behalf of EUMETSAT, ESA is developing two advanced satellites
for routine
weather observations. One is Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) to
replace the
Meteosat series that, since 1977, have watched the weather over
Europe,
Africa and adjacent regions and ocean from a geostationary
vantage point.
Besides its familiar use in daily weather forecasting, Meteosat
provides a
huge archive for climate studies, for example in helping to
reveal changes
in the Earth's cloud cover from year to year. MSG-1 is scheduled
for launch
in 2002. It will generate sharper images twice as often, and with
twelve
wavelength channels rather than the three in the current
Meteosat. It will
also carry the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget experiment to
monitor
the difference between reflected sunlight and the infrared rays
emitted from
the upper atmosphere, which are partially blocked by greenhouse
gases.
From 2005 the first Metop satellite will orbit over the poles. In
a
cooperative programme between EUMETSAT and ESA, Metop is the
space segment
of the EUMETSAT Polar System. This in turn is part of a joint
European-US
satellite system coordinated with the US National Oceanic and
Atmospheric
Administration. The European and American satellites will share
some basic
instruments, including an Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit to
measure the
temperature of the air at many levels in the atmosphere. A puzzle
about
climate change is that the rising global temperatures inferred
from surface
stations are not matched by any long-term warming of the lower
atmosphere.
Additional European instruments on Metop will improve atmospheric
soundings,
and measure atmospheric ozone and near-surface winds over the
ocean.
ESA's Earth Explorer programme aims to advance earth science and
the
techniques of observation from space, beyond the present
capabilities of
current generation of Earth Observation satellites. The first
core mission
of this programme is GOCE (Gravity and Steady-State Ocean
Circulation
Mission) due for launch in 2004/5. It will measure regional
variations in
the Earth's gravity more accurately than ever before. One of its
benefits
will be a better understanding of the ocean currents, which play
a major
role in the climate by transporting huge amounts of heat between
different
regions.
The second Earth Explorer core mission will be ADM (Atmospheric
Dynamics
Mission, 2004/5). It aims to fill a big gap in observations of
the winds of
the world. The computer models that calculate daily weather
forecasts and
make climate predictions, have to diagnose and predict the winds
at all
levels in the atmosphere. Observations that might check whether
the
reckonings are correct are limited to those relatively few places
where
radiosonde weather balloons are flown routinely. Coverage of the
oceans and
the Southern Hemisphere is especially sparse. ADM will use an
ultraviolet
laser beam to measure wind speeds at 20 levels in the air, by
detecting
echoes from molecules and dust particles carried by the winds.
In addition to its core projects, ESA's Earth Explorer programme
supports
smaller "opportunity" missions. Cryosat (2003/4) will
find out whether the
great ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland are melting as a
result of
global warming. It will also clarify the role of sea ice in
climate
variations. ERS-1 and ERS-2 have measured year-by-year variations
in the
thickness of the ice sheets with a radar altimeter, but have
detected little
change overall. This may be because the radar averages the ice
altitudes
across wide areas. To look for significant melting at the edges
of the ice
sheets, Cryosat will use twin radars to detect changes across
areas just 250
metres wide.
Soil moisture and ocean salinity are the targets for SMOS, the
second
"opportunity" project. Life on land relies almost
entirely on the thin layer
of moisture in the soil that supplies the roots of plants, and
any global or
regional trends due to greater or lesser rainfall would be one of
the most
important indicators of climate change. SMOS (2005/6) will use a
multi-beam
radio telescope to detect 21-centimetre radiation from the land
surface, the
intensity of which is a good indicator of soil moisture. The same
radiation
coming from the ocean will reveal the salt content of the sea
surface, which
has a major influence on ocean currents and hence on the climate.
The role of the Sun as a natural agent of climate change is
investigated by
ESA's Space Science Programme. Intense magnetic activity on the
Sun seems
linked to warming effects on the Earth, but the solar mood varies
from
decade to decade and century to century. When the ESA-NASA
Ulysses
spacecraft first flew over the solar poles in 1994-95, it showed
that the
magnetic field far from the Sun is much more uniform that experts
expected.
As a result, scientists were able to deduce, from magnetic
records on the
Earth, that the interplanetary magnetic field doubled in strength
during the
20th Century, probably with related contributions to global
warming.
The ESA-NASA SOHO spacecraft, stationed 1.5 million kilometres
out on the
sunward side of the Earth, has monitored changes in the Sun since
1996. It
measured an expected increase in the intensity of sunlight while
the Sun
approached its present maximum of magnetic activity, as indicated
by a
rising count of sunspots. SOHO has also discovered an
ever-varying
dynamo deep beneath the surface that seems to be responsible for
the Sun's
outward show of magnetism.
When the Sun's role in the Earth's climate changes is better
defined,
anticipating its mood will be important for forecasting. Some
experts think
that the best predictor of the intensity of solar activity is the
strength
of the magnetic field at the Sun's poles, but this is hard to
gauge. ESA's
successor to SOHO will be the Solar Orbiter, due for launch
around 2010. For
one month in every five, the Solar Orbiter will swoop close to
the Sun and
observe its stormy atmosphere in far greater detail than ever
before. It
will also use encounters with the planet Venus to slant its orbit
and
achieve a better view of the Sun's poles and the magnetism there.
ESA is now examining a selection of five proposals for further
core missions
in the Earth Explorer programme. These would investigate
atmospheric
chemistry, clouds and aerosols, ecological changes, or water
vapour in the
atmosphere. The exuberance of the proposals, backed by dozens of
scientists
from ESA's member states and other countries, is a sure sign that
many new
possibilities remain for learning more about our planet from
space. By 2015,
when the Solar Orbiter will be helping scientists to forecast the
Sun's
activity for the following decade, scientific understanding of
both manmade
and natural climate change should be far deeper than it is now --
thanks at
least in part to Europe's climate-tracking spacecraft.
Related News
* Scatterometers, sea ice and climate change
http://www.esa.int/export/esaCP/GGGTECNZ0GC_Feature_0.html
* Satellite eyes focus on El Nino
http://www.esa.int/export/esaCP/GGGN8H2UGEC_Feature_0.html
Related Links
* ESA's Envisat homepage
http://envisat.estec.esa.nl/
* ERS homepage
http://earth.esa.int/l2/2/ersnewhome
* About MSG
http://www.esa.int/export/esaSA/GGGGEHCM8EC_earth_0.html
* Metop
http://www.esrin.esa.it/esa/progs/METOP.html
* CryoSat
http://www.estec.esa.nl/explorer/cryosat/index.html
* Solar Orbiter
http://sci.esa.int/content/doc/42/24386_.htm
* Earth Explorer homepage
http://www.estec.esa.nl/explorer/
* Earth Observation Homepage
http://earth.esa.int/
IMAGE CAPTIONS:
[Iamge 1:
http://www.esa.int/export/esaCP/GGGNCGNVPHC_index_1.html]
Averaged global Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) during the month of
April 1992
as measured by ATSR on ERS.
[Image 2:
http://www.esa.int/export/esaCP/GGGNCGNVPHC_index_1.html#subhead2]
The first of three MSG spacecraft will be launched late in the
year 2000,
allowing Europe to maintain its leading role in gathering global
weather
data until at least the year 2012. Benefiting from Meteosat's
pedigree of
over 20 years, the MSG satellites represent a significant leap in
technological capability and will provide meteorologists with
much improved
imagery and data.
[Image 3:
http://www.esa.int/export/esaCP/GGGNCGNVPHC_index_1.html#subhead3]
Surface winds around Antarctica (strongest in yellow-tinted
areas) as seen
by the radar scatterometer on ERS-1.
[Image 4:
http://www.esa.int/export/esaCP/GGGNCGNVPHC_index_1.html#subhead4]
A solar flare, 26-Nov-2000 SOHO/EIT.
[Image 5:
http://www.esa.int/export/esaCP/GGGNCGNVPHC_index_1.html#subhead5]
Solar Orbiter -- a high-resolution mission to the sun and inner
heliosphere.
================
(7) SCIENTISTS FIND EVIDENCE OF GLOBAL COOLING
From Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>
University of Newcastle upon Tyne
Newcastle upon Tyne, U.K.
Contact:
Michael Warwicker, 0191 222 7850, mick.warwicker@ncl.ac.uk
19 January 2001
Scientists find evidence of global cooling
Researchers examining deep-sea sediments off the coast of
Namibia, West
Africa, have found evidence that global cooling of 10 degrees
Celsius has
occurred since 3.2 million years ago -- five times greater than
was
previously believed.
The discovery, announced in the American journal, Science, adds
weight to
the theory that climate change played a significant part in the
evolution of
early humans.
Jeremy Marlow, of Newcastle University's Department of Fossil
Fuels and
Environmental Geochemistry, who led the team of English, American
and German
scientists, said: "There have been arguments for many years
about whether
the emergence of our ancestors was linked to climate change. By
looking at
the molecular fossils of microscopic marine algae we began to
discover
evidence of a 10 degree fall in temperature in the region of
Africa where
much of the early human fossil evidence has been discovered.
"We didn't believe it at first but further tests kept
producing similar
results until we had to conclude that temperatures really had
decreased so
dramatically." The scientists, from the Universities of
Newcastle, Durham,
California and Bremen, found that cooling was particularly rapid
about 2
million years ago, at the time when the first ancestors of modern
humans
emerged in sub-tropical southern Africa.
The research also sheds new light on the mechanisms that may
cause climate
change. By examining the rate of sediment deposition and the
levels of
organic carbon within the sediments, the researchers obtained
evidence of a
well-defined cycle in which a cooling atmosphere causes increased
upwelling
of nutrient-rich deep waters in specific parts of the oceans
leading to
increased biological uptake of carbon dioxide from the
atmosphere, which
then cools further, causing more upwelling and uptake of carbon
dioxide.
This mechanism took 100,000s to millions of years to have an
effect on
climate but could be reversed far more rapidly through the
burning of this
type of locked-up carbon as fossil fuels.
Further information:
University Press Office
Phone: 0191 222 7850
E-mail: press.office@ncl.ac.uk
Notes for Editors
This press release is based on an article, "Upwelling
Intensification As
Part of the Pliocene-Pleistocene Climate Transition",
published in the
American journal, Science (ref 290: 2288-2291.) However, the
article in
Science concerns itself with factual findings and does not
discuss the
implications for human evolution. No press release has been
issued by
Science.
Peer reviewed publication and references
Science 290: 2288-2291 (see also Notes for Editors)
===============
(8) A CENTURY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE CENTAL U.S.
From CO2 Science, 24 January 2001
http://www.co2science.org/journal/2001/v4n4c1.htm
Reference
Suckling, P.W. and Mitchell, M.D. 2000. Variation of
the Koppen C/D
climate boundary in the central United States during the 20th
century.
Physical Geography 21: 38-45.
What was done
The authors studied the spatial and temporal variation of the C/D
Koppen
climate boundary in the central United States over the 100-year
period 1900
to 1999. In this climate classification system, the C and D
climates are
both considered mid-latitude rainy climates, but with mild and
cold winters,
respectively. The data used in the analysis were mean January
temperatures
obtained from the U.S. Historical Climatology Network for 67
sites located
between 37 and 41.5°N latitude and 90 and 100°W longitude,
comprising much
of Missouri, eastern and central Kansas, south-central and
southeastern
Nebraska, southern Iowa and west-central Illinois.
What was learned
Breaking the hundred-year time period into four equal parts, it
was found
that the C/D climate boundary was located slightly farther south
during the
last two periods (1950-1974 and 1975-1999) than it was during the
first two
periods (1900-1924 and 1925-1949). In the words of the authors,
"this
implies that winters were colder or more severe during these
latter periods
compared to the two earlier quarter-century periods." They
also note that
"cooler conditions for the latter half of the 20th century
are further
illustrated by the network-wide mean January temperature
values," which were
-3.34°C for 1950-1974 and -3.24°C for 1975-1999, as compared to
-2.67°C for
1900-1924 and -2.62°C for 1925-1949.
What it means
The results of this study clearly show, contrary to the
predictions of some
- such as Butzer (1980), for example - that a northward migration
of
climatic zones in central North America does not appear to be
occurring. The
authors say that "this suggests a lack of evidence for any
systematic
wintertime warming in the central United States that might be
anticipated
under a global-warming scenario." They also note that the
same holds true
for the summer-sensitive Dfa/Dfb climate boundary (where Dfa
climates have
distinctly warmer summers than Dfb climates), as demonstrated by
Mitchell
and Kienholz (1997) in a similar study based on July mean
temperatures in
the north-central and northeastern United States. These studies
thus make an
even stronger case than we make for the non-existence of global
warming, as
we only claim it has not warmed since 1930 (see our Editorial of
1 July
2000).
References
Butzer, K. 1980. Adaptation to global environmental change.
The
Professional Geographer 32: 269-278.
Mitchell, M. and Kienholz, J. 1997. A climatological analysis of
the Koppen
Dfa/Dfb boundary in eastern North America, 1901-1990. Ohio
Journal of
Science 97: 53-58.
Copyright © 2001. Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and
Global Change
www.co2science.org
=================
(9) CLIMATE CHANGE OVER LAST 3 MILLION YEARS
From Michael Paine <mpaine@tpgi.com.au>
Dear Benny,
The SpaceDaily article 'Earth May Have Cooled 10 Degrees Over
Past 3 Million
Years'
http://www.spacedaily.com/news/greenhouse-01a.html
is interesting. It
concerns a paper in Science about analysis of deep sea sediments.
The author
of the SpaceDaily article notes that it "...adds weight to
the theory that
climate change played a significant part in the evolution of
early humans."
but cautions that the Science paper does not discuss the
implications for
human evolution. Hopefully someone will also be analysing the
cores for
evidence of microplanet impacts.
regards
Michael Paine
================
(10) COLD WINTER COULD PUT U.S. ECONOMY ON ICE
From Yahoo News, 20 January 2001
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010120/bs/economy_weather_dc_1.html
By Daniel Sternoff
NEW YORK (Reuters) - When it rains, it pours. And snow, sleet and
one of the
coldest U.S. winters on record are sending bitter shivers through
an already
cooling economy, potentially putting a decade-long expansion on
ice.
Economists say higher heating bills, shorter work weeks and
dampened drive
to hit the malls are all depressing consumer spending this
winter. Bad
weather is also sending chill winds through the so-far resilient
housing and
construction sectors.
The colder- and wetter-than-usual weather is exaggerating a usual
winter
fall off in retail and building activity just as a clutch of
prominent Wall
Street analysts are forecasting an abrupt end to record-long
economic boom.
And this winter's impact on the economy may be all the more
biting as the
cold snap follows a string of the warmest winters in more than a
century,
warping government adjustments used to smooth out usual seasonal
distortions
in economic data.
FULL STORY at
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010120/bs/economy_weather_dc_1.html
============
* OPINION *
============
(11) CALIFORNIA BLACKOUTS: A PREVIEW OF KYOTO
From S. Fred Singer <singer@sepp.org>
In a NY Times op-ed, perennial alarmist Bill McKibben (of
"The End of
Nature" fame) bewails the failure of the Clinton/Gore White
House to achieve
international agreement on the Kyoto Protocol at last November's
climate
conference in The Hague. It collapsed because the US was willing
to
give up only 90 percent of its initial position but the Europeans
wanted
complete surrender.
Now, of course, they may end up with nothing. President Bush
should
certainly re-examine both the scientific rationale and the
consequences of a
Kyoto accord. McKibben quotes scary climate projections but fails
to mention
that none of these theoretical predictions has as yet been
validated by actual climate observations. Why then should we
believe them?
We are on firmer ground when we consider the effects of the
cutbacks in
energy use demanded by Kyoto. We need only look at the crisis in
California,
where supply has not been allowed to keep up with growing
electricity
demand. About 30 million people are affected, 10% of the US
population. As liberal economist Paul Krugman correctly points
out (NY
Times, Jan.7), only higher prices or some means of rationing can
solve the
crisis through some kind of enforced energy conservation.
Meanwhile, rationing proceeds in California: Stage 3 emergencies
and
blackouts as power reserves dwindle to near zero. First,
interruptible
customers are cut off. But then, as a sudden shortage of 1000
megawatts
develops, rolling blackouts hit 1.5 million customers, including
schools,
traffic lights, crashed computers, stalled elevators, mainly in
Northern
California. (There is not enough transmission capacity from
Southern Cal to
make up the shortfall.).
But San Francisco strikes back boldly. City attorney Louise Renne
sues:
"These companies are playing with marked
cards...corporations are taking
advantage of a deregulated market to make a quick buck."
Atttaboy, Louise.
How politically correct!
What a wonderful object lesson this debacle is for the rest of
the country
and even the world. The basic problem is a shortage of generating
capacity.
(see: www.sepp.org/NewSEPP/ElectricPowerCrisis.htm
) California hasn't built
a power plant worth mentioning in over 12 years, because of
environmental
opposition to coal, oil, and nuclear. Not enough pipelines and
transmission
lines either. However, a lot more wind mills and solar
panels on the roofs of Sacramento. (see:
www.sepp.org/weekwas/1998/may4_10.html
)
The California "deregulation" scheme, enacted to yield
lower prices to
consumers, is a sham. Utilities were forced to sell their
generating plants
and buy on the spot market, but could not enter into long-term
contracts
with out-of-state suppliers. Worst of all, while their wholesale
cost was
indeed unregulated, they were forced to sell at regulated low
prices "to
protect consumers." It's the ideal recipe for going
bankrupt: buying high
and selling low. And that's exactly what's happening. They are
defaulting on
bank loans, hurting pension funds, spreading the disaster to the
rest of the
nation. Moreover, this doesn't count the price increases sure to
follow, caused by the economic losses experienced by Cal
agriculture and
industry. The nation is already experiencing natural gas prices 3
to 4 times
higher than normal, partly because of the increasing demand from
gas
turbines that are built to produce electric power at relatively
short notice
and much favored by Green groups.
The Independent System Operator, the Cal state agency charged
with ensuring
a balance in power supply and deciding about blackouts, estimates
that
California needs at least 10,000 megawatts in the next 3 to 4
years. Much of
that will have to come from natural gas- produced electricity --
at very
high cost.
And what is Cal governor Gray Davis doing about this
self-inflicted mess?
About what might be expected. He is using taxpayer's money to buy
power on
the wholesale market and handing it off to the utilities for
distribution.
Even the Washington Post (editorial of Jan 20) admits that his
plan "fails
to confront the main cause of the crisis, which is that
California's
regulation unsustainably protects consumers from paying market
prices for
electricity."
Consumer groups are already taking steps to keep retail prices
from rising:
threatening the ever-popular California ballot initiative. With
Green groups
clamoring for higher prices to enforce conservation, the irony of
the
situation is both comical and delicious.
Where are all the apostles preaching painless conservation? Where
is Amory
Lovins with his "negawatts," now that we need him? Why
isn't Paul Ehrlich
telling us again, how good it is to get along with less power?
Where is the
drive to put up more windmills? If every Californian were to
cover his roof
with solar cells, it would solve the problem. Or so they say.
Nothing demonstrates the bankruptcy of Green ideology like this
crisis
---which may soon spread to other states. We are seeing here a
preview of
the effects of the Kyoto Protocol.
S. Fred Singer, President
Science & Environmental Policy Project
http://www.sepp.org
===============
(12) THE COMING ELECTRICITY POWER CRISIS
From The Science & Environmental Policy Project
www.sepp.org/NewSEPP/ElectricPowerCrisis.htm
A think piece by W Kenneth Davis (former US Deputy Secretary of
Energy)
Recent events, particularly in California, have made it all too
clear that
the U.S. power generating system is short of the reserve capacity
needed to
prevent blackouts, and perhaps more importantly, to provide for
stable
electricity prices under free market conditions. My estimate is
that an
increase in the reserve margin of at least 5 % is needed very
badly. With a
total generating capacity of 745 GW, operating with an average
capacity
factor of about 57 %, the U.S. system produced 3.7 Trillion KWH
last year.
The average rate of growth of US demand for electricity from 1973
to 1999
has been essentially constant at 2.1 % per year. If we assume we
should have
745 x 1.05 or 782 GW now, or 37 GW more than we have, the total
in another
10 years, by 2009, should be 963 GW (at the rate of growth for
the past 26
years and making up for a 5 % additional reserve margin). This
would require
adding 218 GW over the next ten years, or about 22 GW per year.
These estimates are concerned with actual plants put into
operation and not
the rate of ordering, which must be done at an earlier time,
depending on
the type of the plant and the time for licensing. This would
involve an
annual investment of about $13 to 40 billion dollars for the
plants,
depending on the range of investment costs, from combined cycle
gas turbine
plants (CCGT) to nuclear plants. This should not cause any
strain, under the
present financial conditions.
Such a growth would require about thirty-six 600 MW CCGT plants
per year or
about seventeen 1300 MW nuclear plants (common sizes). Either
would be a
challenge for the industry, which has not manufactured nor built
power
plants at this rate for many years. However, it would appear
feasible,
assuming a high enough priority.
A further concern is with respect to the gas supply for CCGT
plants. Taking
the ten-year period as noted above and assuming that the CCGT
plants have
capacity factor of 75 % (since the costs would be favorable in
the
competitive market) and a 50 % gross thermal efficiency, the
added 218 GW of
capacity would require, when completed, 9.3 trillion CF of gas
per year, in
addition to the 3.1 TCF used for power production in 1999, giving
a total of
12.3 TCF for power generation. With U.S. production remaining at
about 18-19
TCF (constant for the last 6 years), imports which were 3.5 TCF
in 1999 (94
% from Canada) would have to increase by 9.3 TCF from the 1999
just for
power generation (and more for additional major uses; in 1999
only 15 % of
natural gas was used for power production). The increase for
other uses
might be another 4 TCF at a growth rate of 2.1 % per year. In
other words,
we might have to import 16-17 TCF per year or about 40 % of our
total use in
10 years, mostly from Canada. It is of concern that the proven
reserves of
gas in Canada at the end of 1997 were 67.5 TCF as compared with
the U.S.
reserves of 168 TCF (per \'93World Oil\'94).
U.S. proven reserves have not changed significantly for 10 years.
I am
somewhat skeptical that Canada would export as much as 16 TCF/Yr
unless
their reserves have increased dramatically. Even a 10 % increase
in U.S.
production, which has been flat for the past 6 years, would only
reduce the
imports by 2 TCF/Yr. Canada was using about 2.4 TCF/Yr themselves
in 1996.
The fraction of power production from gas would rise from about
15 % in 1999
to about 31 % in 2009 if all of the added capacity was gas-fired
CCG\'92s.
Such a situation might be feasible if Canada is willing to make
the large
increase in supply available. One question is the cost of the
added pipeline
and distribution facilities, another is the price Canada, and
other
suppliers would charge. We must remember that the U.S. used just
as much gas
in 1973 as we did in 1999. The infrastructure for this, while old
and with
various improvements, is handling the present use in the U.S.
Additional
capacity for distribution, etc. as well as the cost of the
facilities for
importing much more gas from Canada will be expensive. It would
be
reasonable for the costs to double under these circumstances, to
$ 6 per
thousand CF or significantly more. (The cost was about $ 2.25 for
several
years and jumped to from about $ 2.80 in April of this year to $
4.75 on the
futures market in September. It must be noted that the futures
prices are
usually a lot higher than long-term contract prices.)
Under such conditions, nuclear power could be a very strong
competitor based
on economics. However, with the long lead times for licensing and
construction (5-6 years), it would seem unlikely for nuclear
power plants to
be in operation by 2009 to any significant extent.
It seems important to consider the alternatives, windmills and
photovoltaics, advocated by our Administration, largely Vice
President Gore.
If the entire 218 GW derived above was to be photovoltaics, the
land area
required would be at least 9 to 13,000 square miles in very
favorable
locations and it would be necessary to find a way to store much
of the power
generated. If we consider windmills of a typical size of about
300 KW, and
an operating factor of 20 % (in good locations), we would need
over 3 1/2
million windmills requiring at least 10 to 12,000 square miles
and still
would have an unsolved electricity storage problem. The cost
would be on the
order of 1 1/4 to 2 trillion dollars or 125 to 200 billion
dollars per year
plus the cost of storing much of the electricity produced in some
manner not
yet known and at of unknown cost. Further, the technologies are
not ready
and manufacturing facilities do not exist on this scale.
There is no "magic" solution to the emerging electric
power problem; in
fact, it will get worse before it gets better, perhaps
catastrophically. If
we can stimulate the expedited construction of new plants, gas
or/and
nuclear (or coal), we can reasonably expect to get back to a
normal supply
and demand situation in 10 years or so. We are going to be in
really serious
difficulties if we do not!
============
(13) AND FINALLY: HYSTERICAL MEDIA REPORTS ABOUT IPCC WARMING
PROPHECIES
Global warming to worsen: report (AFP)
http://news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,1638063^401,00.html
Report warns of disaster from global warming (Ananova)
http://www.ananova.com/news/story/sm_181223.html?menu=
UK urged to act on 'terrifying' global warming report (Ananova)
http://www.ananova.com/news/story/sm_181413.html?menu=
Report warns of global warming disaster
http://www.canoe.ca/CNEWSScience0101/22_report-ap.html
Evidence of Rapid Global Warming Accepted by 99 Nations (ENS)
http://ens.lycos.com/ens/jan2001/2001L-01-22-02.html
Global warming now 'unstoppable', scientists warn (Independent)
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/UK/Science/2001-01/warm230101.shtml
World will be 6C warmer by 2100, scientists forecast
(Independent)
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/UK/Science/2001-01/warmer220101.shtml
Global warming rate rings warning bells (The Age)
http://www.theage.com.au/news/2001/01/23/FFX92NT09IC.html
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