PLEASE NOTE:
*
CCNet 7/2003 - 27 January 2003
-------------------------------
"The [NEO impact] programme ended with what's now become a
stock
Horizon cliche: a beardy man saying it would be really, really
terrible and it could happen any day now. Horizon is still
described as
BBC's "flagship" science series, a phrase which falsely
implies an
accompanying fleet (Tomorrow's World recently turned turtle and
will not be
salvaged). If it is a flagship, it badly needs some time in
dry-dock."
--The Independent, 24 January 2003
"Astronomers first became aware of "1950 DA" 10
years ago, since
when "asteroids have become a top government priority".
Have they really?
I wonder whose department they come under. Somehow - and I have a
very
bad feeling about this - it's bound to be John Prescott's.
--The Sunday Telegraph, 26 January 2003
"The draft of the UK's new Space policy document entitled
"The draft
UK Space Policy 2003 - 2006 and beyond" was unveiled
yesterday. The key
words "asteroid" and "NEO" (Near Earth
Object) do not appear anywhere in
the document, and "comets" are only mentioned in the
context of Giotto
and Rosetta. There is no reference to the impact hazard at all.
Glad to
see that the UK is still taking a "world lead" in NEO
matters then!"
--Jay Tate, Spaceguard UK
(1) "AVERTING ARMAGEDOON": PROGRAMME SUMMARY OF BBC
DOCUMENTARY (23 Jan)
BBC Horizon, 23 January 2003
(2) "SMALL BOY SENSATION": BBC'S NEO DOCUMENTARY GETS
BAD PRESS
The Independent, 24 January 2003
(3) "WE'RE ALL DOOMED - IN 877 YEARS, PERHAPS"
The Sunday Telegraph, 26 January 2003
(4) RESERACHERS FIND CORRELATION BETWEEN IMPACTS & INCREASED
VOLCANIC
ACTIVITY
Ron Baalke <info@jpl.nasa.gov>
(5) SPECTACULAR COMET SHOW IN SOHO IMAGES
Paul Brekke <pbrekke@esa.nascom.nasa.gov>
(6) QUE93148: A PART OF THE MANTLE OF ASTEROID 4 VESTA?
Ron Baalke <baalke@zagami.jpl.nasa.gov>
(7) UTAH BOWLED OVER BY METEOR PLAN
Ron Baalke <baalke@zagami.jpl.nasa.gov>
(8) NASA PROJECT AIMING TO UNDERSTAND SUN-EARTH SYSTEM
NASANews@hq.nasa.gov
(9) SURPRISE, SURPRISE: "EUROPE'S SPACE PROGRAMME LACKING
VISION"
Space Daily, 24 January 2003
(10) UK SPACE POLICY: HAS BRITAIN GIVEN UP ON SPACEGUARD?
Jonathan Tate <fr77@dial.pipex.com]
(11) PRAVDA "KILLER ASTEROID" STORY (17 January 2003)
Vadim A. Simonenko < sva@sva.ch70.chel.su>
(12) SCARE-MONGERING AND MEGA TSUNAMI HAZARDS
Michael Paine <mpaine@tpg.com.au>
(13) SOLAR CYCLES AND TERRESTRIAL CLIMATE
Oliver K. Manuel <oess@umr.edu>
(14) AND FINALLY: ARMAGEDDON FICTION GRIPS THE US
BBC News Online, 19 January 2003
========
(1) "AVERTING ARMAGEDOON": PROGRAMME SUMMARY OF BBC
DOCUMENTARY (23 Jan)
>From BBC Horizon, 23 January 2003
http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/2003/armageddon.shtml
The Earth is under constant bombardment. Each year, many
fragments of debris
hit our planet. Fortunately for us, most are so small that they
burn up
harmlessly in the atmosphere.
The scarred surface of the Moon tells us it has been hit many
times
However, there are hundreds of larger asteroids orbiting near the
Earth.
Many scientists now believe that one of these hit the Earth 65
million years
ago, killing the dinosaurs, along with 90% of all life on the
planet. What
is more, it is only a matter of time before the Earth is hit
again.
Experts warn that nuclear weapons might not destroy an
approaching asteroid.
But Jay Meloch thinks he can use the power of the Sun to nudge an
asteroid
away from the Earth.
A violent Solar System
Until recently, no one took the asteroid threat very seriously.
Yet the
evidence that we are in danger is on our own doorstep. We need
only look at
the cratered surface of the Moon to realise that it has been
pounded by
impacts throughout its history.
Why then, if collisions were common, was the surface of the Earth
not
scarred in a similar way? Unlike the Moon, the geography of the
Earth is
constantly changing, as continents move, and the landscape is
constantly
reforming. However, scientists realised that many features they
had once
dismissed as extinct volcanoes could in fact have been made by
asteroid
impacts.
Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 hits Jupiter
Then in 1994, something happened which brought home how immediate
the danger
is. Astronomers realised that comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 was heading
straight
for the planet Jupiter. The spectacular - and violent - impact
created an
explosion the size of planet Earth, and was the first time a
collision
between two astronomical bodies had been observed. If Jupiter had
been hit,
then the Earth could be next.
Mapping the asteroids
Over 90% of the asteroids in the Solar System lie in a belt
between Mars and
Jupiter. Most of these are in stable orbits around the Sun, and
will never
come anywhere near the Earth. However, collisions between
asteroids, or the
effects of Jupiter's large gravitational field can sometimes
deflect
asteroids off course, and send them into the inner Solar System.
NASA has been conducting a survey of near Earth objects, and we
now know of
many asteroids whose orbits cross our own. So far, no imminent
collisions
are predicted; astronomers are though keeping a close eye on a
rock they
call 1950 DA, which will either hit, or pass very close to the
Earth, in
2880.
However, there is a long way to go before we have found all the
asteroids
that are a potential threat. We still don't know for certain that
an
asteroid will not hit in the near future.
Will nuclear weapons save the Earth?
The most obvious strategy to protect the Earth against an
asteroid might
seem to be to try to destroy it with nuclear weapons. This plan
has two
fundamental problems. Firstly, you would have to attach a bomb
larger than
any yet created, to a very powerful rocket. This might be nearly
as
dangerous as the asteroid you were trying to destroy.
More importantly however, a nuclear blast might not destroy a
large asteroid
completely, but merely split it into chunks. Instead of one large
impact,
you might end up with several smaller ones, which would end up
doing nearly
as much damage.
Could we use nuclear weapons in a 'gentle' way?
If we cannot destroy an approaching asteroid, then the only other
tactic
would be to try to nudge it forward just enough to make it miss
the Earth -
like stepping on the accelerator of a car to make it miss a train
at a level
crossing. If we had enough warning, then only a very small
deflection might
be enough.
Rather than firing a nuclear weapon directly at an asteroid,
could we
explode it nearby so that the blast gives the asteroid the nudge
it needed
to miss the Earth? For a while, scientists thought they had found
a
solution. But then some surprising results forced them to think
again.
Asteroids like sponges
Three years ago, the residents of Tagish Lake in northern Canada
witnessed a
bright explosion in the sky, as an asteroid burned up in the
atmosphere
above them. Jim Brook was lucky enough to find debris from the
impact. The
first thing he noticed was that it was far lighter than he
expected it would
be. Like a sponge, the chunks of debris were mostly air.
Dan Durdan makes his living by firing ball bearings at asteroid
samples -
meteorites - to study what happens when they are hit. When he
tested samples
similar to the Tagish Lake meteorite, he was surprised to see
that, rather
than shattering or being deflected, these less dense asteroids
simply
absorbed the impact of the blast.
These results were worrying. This could mean that many asteroids
would not
be deflected by a nuclear blast. Trying to deflect an asteroid
with a blast
might have no effect, and would keep it coming on its deadly
trajectory.
What can a spinning asteroid tell us?
The question now facing scientists was: how many asteroids near
Earth are
like the Tagish Lake samples? The only way we can know for sure
what an
asteroid is made of is by landing on it. But could there be a
clue in the
way the asteroids behave?
Most asteroids spin around as they travel through space. Some
spin slowly,
and others quickly. But if an asteroid is spinning too quickly,
there is a
danger that it will tear itself apart if the material from which
it is made
is not strong enough. By surveying the spin of asteroids near the
Earth,
scientists can make a very rough estimate of how dense the
asteroids are.
There was good news and bad news. Asteroid 1950 DA was spinning
quickly, and
so is likely to be fairly dense - and could potentially be
deflected with a
nuclear device. But the majority of asteroids surveyed were slow
spinners.
Clearly, scientists were going to have to come up with another
solution if
they wanted to protect the Earth.
The power of the Sun
Jay Meloch has suggested a radical new way of dealing with a
dangerous
asteroid. He wanted a surer, more controlled way of diverting a
large body -
with a gentle push instead of a blast. His idea was to find a way
of
harnessing the biggest power source in the Solar System - the
Sun.
In the same way as you can use a magnifying glass to set fire to
a sheet of
paper, you could focus the Sun's rays onto a point on the surface
on an
asteroid. The spot where the Sun's rays met would heat up,
blasting
particles of the asteroid into space. This would act like a
rocket engine,
and might be enough nudge the asteroid out of harm's way.
The scientific community ridiculed his suggestion - until Meloch
received a
phone call from someone who took his idea very seriously. The US
military
already uses collectors like Meloch's to gather radio waves.
Meloch may well
have come up with a suggestion that will one day save the Earth.
FULL TRANSCRIPT at
http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/2003/armageddontrans.shtml
Copyright 2003, BBC
=========
(2) "SMALL BOY SENSATION": BBC'S NEO DOCUMENTARY GETS
BAD REVIEWS
>From The Independent, 24 January 2003
A few years ago, the gloomier prognosticators within the BBC's
factual
programming strands were predicting catastrophe. The corporation
was
vulnerable, they insisted, and if action wasn't taken, it would
be the end
of the world as they knew it. But they couldn't get anyone to
listen. The
powers that be said they were exaggerating, and even some of
their
colleagues scoffed. So the BBC went ahead and signed a
co-production deal
with the Discovery Channel and the asteroid of mediocrity hit,
with - as
they like to say in the sort of science programmes they now make
- the force
of a thousand nuclear bombs.
A little over the top, I grant you. I realise that there are a
whole lot of
viewers out there who haven't even noticed the impact, as well as
a whole
bunch more who think it was a thoroughly good thing. But it's
unquestionable
that the deal has had an effect on biodiversity. If you doubt it,
take a
cross-section through the latest season of Horizon programmes,
which have so
far included no less than three armageddon programmes (tsunami,
killer
volcanoes and, last night, asteroids), two lost civilization
programmes
(Easter Island and El Dorado), and sundries on narcolepsy and
homeopathy. In
other words, a classic Discovery cocktail of small boy sensation.
See that
fine layer of ash dating from the mid- Nineties? It marks the
beginning of a
mass-extinction of intellectual ambition. Where the presiding
spirits of
Horizon used to be Watson and Dennett and Feynman, these days
it's more like
Von Daniken and Jerry Bruckheimer.
In fact, last night's programme was eerily reminiscent of last
Saturday's
BBC1 broadcast of the film Armageddon (produced by Bruckheimer),
though it
was marginally more instructive about the science involved. Where
the movie
had Bruce Willis, wisecracking his way to noble self-sacrifice,
the
documentary offered Bill Paterson at his most silkily ominous,
delivering
the script like a kirk elder who thinks the congregation have
been getting a
bit complacent. The intellectual approach was the torturer's
classic
technique of alternating pain with momentary relief. "Is
1950DA the most
dangerous rock in space?", Paterson asked, as you were shown
a menacing
image of the kilometre-wide chunk of rock that has us in its
appointments
diary. Then they revealed that it can't manage a meeting until
AD2880 -
which might well be a "blink of a cosmic eye" away, but
still falls
comfortably outside most viewers' anxiety lead-time.
But don't relax yet, because there are hundreds of smaller rocks
that could
be just as deadly and blowing them up with nuclear bombs won't
work. On the
other hand, as long as we spot them early enough, we could nudge
them out of
the way with explosions. Then again, that only works if they're
solid rock -
and a recent near miss in Canada revealed that a lot of asteroids
are more
like pumice. Start panicking again - and now stop, because
another scientist
(Professor Jay Melosh, left) has worked out a way to use a giant
magnifying
glass to propel spongy asteroids out of our path. Phew! But no -
that
wouldn't work on comets heading straight for us! Argghhh... Mum!
The programme ended with what's now become a stock Horizon
cliche: a beardy
man saying it would be really, really terrible and it could
happen any day
now. Next week - a film about the science of the dirty bomb,
which I'm
willing to bet will end with the same kind of resonant clang of
imminent
disaster. Horizon is still described as BBC's
"flagship" science series, a
phrase which falsely implies an accompanying fleet (Tomorrow's
World
recently turned turtle and will not be salvaged). If it is a
flagship, it
badly needs some time in dry-dock.
Copyright 2003, The Independent
=========
(3) "WE'RE ALL DOOMED - IN 877 YEARS, PERHAPS"
>From The Sunday Telegraph, 26 January 2003
Eager to impart some immediate uplift to your day, I shall begin
this
morning by tackling the subject of Armageddon. We're all doomed.
Some of us
- either through gross moral turpitude or helpless oldsterism -
are going to
fry sooner than others. At least, so I always thought. But now it
turns out
that we are all going to disappear in a shower of sparks much
earlier than
expected.
Sorry about this. Horizon: Averting Armageddon (Thursday, BBC2)
was not -
mercifully - about Iraq, but that's as comforting as it gets. It
was about
meteorites instead. Apparently there are some really big ones
heading this
way, all with our names engraved on them.
In a dazed voice a man called Randy described seeing a great
fireball
whizzing through the sky. "An incredible white light
illuminated the inside
of my truck," he said. "And this, ur, stuff was falling
out of the sky."
What Randy had seen was a small asteroid, a kind of cosmic
warm-up rock for
the main attraction - a very big fellow indeed called "1950
DA".
Astronomers first became aware of "1950 DA" 10 years
ago, since when
"asteroids have become a top government priority". Have
they really? I
wonder whose department they come under. Somehow - and I have a
very bad
feeling about this - it's bound to be John Prescott's. Our only
hope of
avoiding annihilation, it seems, is to launch an incredibly large
object of
our own at the meteorite, with vast explosive capabilities.
Presumably this is where Prescott will come into his own,
uncharacteristically cast in the Daniel rather than Goliath role.
But sadly,
it's not as simple as that: everything depends on detonating Big
John at
precisely the right moment, so as to deflect "1950 DA"
from its course. Get
it wrong and he will just hurtle uselessly through time and space
for ever
and ever.
By now I was in almost as bad a shape as poor Randy, my eyes
swivelling
anxiously towards the night sky. But after carefully fraying our
nerves for
as long as they dared - there was a full complement of fatalists
tumbling
over themselves in their keenness to spell out our imminent
demise - the
programme makers finally came clean and admitted that "1950
DA" isn't due to
hit until 2880. Hold on, that's 877 years away.
We're living under a dark enough cloud at the moment. If 2880
does ever roll
around, I will have just become eligible for my bus pass and
probably won't
be that fussed by the idea of a vast lump of molten metal heading
for my
retirement condo. Alarm over then. Back to toast and marmalade
everybody;
there's still plenty to live for.
===========
(4) RESERACHERS FIND CORRELATION BETWEEN IMPACTS & INCREASED
VOLCANIC
ACTIVITY
>From Ron Baalke <info@jpl.nasa.gov>
http://www.earthinstitute.columbia.edu/news/2003/story01-17-03.html
Earth Institute at Columbia University
January 17, 2003
Contact:
Mary Tobin
845-365-8607
Columbia University Research Finds Correlation Between Meteorite
and Comet
Impacts and an Increase in Volcanic Activity Development
10 Major Episodes of Extraterrestrial Impacts Found to Correlate
with 9
Major Episodes of Volcanism
Supporting the theory that catastrophic events significantly
influence major
Earth processes, researchers have determined that comet and
meteorite
impacts on Earth occurring over the last 4 billion years have
directly correlated with
the activity of strong and normal mantle plumes - heated mantle
rock causing
volcanic eruptions (e.g. Hawaii, Iceland).
Dr. Dallas Abbott, of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Institute, and Ann
Isley, of
SUNY Oswego, assembled an expanded database of terrestrial
impacts over the last
4 billion years. They used clues from known craters such as
impact spherules
created from impact melt, and from impact breccias that are
created from shattered
debris fused under high temperatures and pressures. They also
examined the activity
of normal and strong mantle plumes over geological time. Time
series derived
from this data showed that 10 major peaks in terrestrial impact
activity were
seen on Earth over this time period. Nine out of 10 of these
impact peaks are
directly matched by peaks in normal to strong mantle plume
volcanism. In addition,
there are two prominent lulls in impact activity, also
corresponding to periods of
lower activity of mantle plume volcanism.
The biggest mystery remaining is the mechanism by which large
impacts might
intensify volcanism. Abbott and Isley propose three
possibilities: impacts may cause
cracking and de-stressing of the crust, allowing melts that had
been trapped due to
tectonic stress and/or impermeable boundaries to rise more easily
to the surface;
impacts may produce large cracks in the surface of the Earth
allowing new plate
boundaries to form with consequent thinner lithosphere and longer
melt columns; or impacts may
produce microdikes at the core mantle boundary, which, if very
thin, would allow
molten core and mantle material to mix, increasing the amount of
heat available for
melting the mantle and producing a rapid intensification of
existing mantle plumes.
Another question raised by the correlation between impacts and
volcanism
concerns widely adopted theories that meteorite and comet impacts
were the cause of
mass extinctions of life on Earth. Was it the impact alone or
could major
episodes of mantle plume volcanism have contributed to these
extinctions?
Dallas Abbott is an adjunct research scientist at The
Lamont-Doherty Earth
Observatory. Her primary research focus is the thermal history of
the earth,
and the manner in which heat transport through the crust and
upper mantle
influences geological processes, both ancient and present-day.
Abbott and Isley"s research paper, "Extraterrestrial
Influences on Mantle
Plume Activity," is appearing in Earth and Planetary Science
Letters this month.
The Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, a research unit of the
Earth
Institute, is one of the world"s leading research centers
examining the planet from its
core to its atmosphere, across every continent and every ocean.
From global climate
change to earthquakes, volcanoes, environmental hazards and
beyond, Observatory
scientists continue to provide the basic knowledge of Earth
systems that must inform
the future health and habitability of our planet.
The Earth Institute at Columbia University is the world"s
pioneer academic
center for mobilizing the sciences and public policy in pursuit
of a sustainable
future, especially for the world's poor. Its director is
international economist
Jeffrey D. Sachs. More than 800 scientists with strength in Earth
science, ecology,
health, social science or engineering are working together to
reduce poverty,
hunger, disease and environmental degradation. The Institute
brings their creative knowledge
to bear through teaching, research and outreach in dozens of
countries around the
world. In all it does, the Earth Institute remains mindful of the
staggering
disparities between rich and poor nations and the tremendous
impact that global-scale problems
-- from the AIDS pandemic to climate change to extreme poverty in
much of the developing
world -- will have on all nations.
==========
(5) SPECTACULAR COMET SHOW IN SOHO IMAGES
>From Paul Brekke <pbrekke@esa.nascom.nasa.gov>
Spectacular comet show in SOHO images:
Comet C/2002 X5 (Kudo-Fujikawa) is plunging toward the Sun and is
just now visible
in the SOHO/LASCO images that are available on the Web. Everyone
with an Internet
connection can follow this spectacular event from their living
rooms.
The comet is clearly visible in the top part of the image:
http://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/javagif/gifs_small/20030125_2354_c3.gif
On Jan. 29th, it will be only 0.19 AU from the Sun. The intense
bright
light from our star will make it impossible to view the close
encounter
from the Earth. However, SOHO is able to block the Sun's
glare using
onboard coronagraphs. Thus, everyone with an Internet connection
can
follow the comet in the SOHO while it is approaching the Sun,
passing it
and then moving out in space again. The comet will remain visible
in the
SOHO/LASCO images until the end of the month.
How bright will the comet become? How big will its tail grow?
Will the
comet break apart? No one knows. Keep an eye on our SOHO images
here to
find out:
http://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime-images.html
Here you will find the latest stills and the latest mpeg
animations
showing the comet moving across the filed of view.
Artwork showing the comets path:
http://science.nasa.gov/spaceweather/swpod2003/25jan03/Koehn1.jpg
More information can also be found on:
http://www.spaceweather.com/
Some ground based images of the comet:
http://www.utahskies.org/solarsystem/comets/C2002_X5_(Kudo-Fujikawa)/index.shtml
Background about the comet:
On December 13th, Japanese astronomer T. Kudo discovered a new
comet
cruising through the constellation Bootes. The comet was
independently
discovered on December 14th by Shigehisa Fujikawa, also of Japan.
Named
C/2002 X5 Kudo-Fujikawa, the comet is the 6th to carry the
Fujikawa name.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-
Dr. Paal Brekke,
SOHO Deputy Project Scientist (European Space Agency - ESA)
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center,
Email: pbrekke@esa.nascom.nasa.gov
Mail Code 682.3, Bld. 26, Room 001, Tel.:
1-301-286-6983 /301 996 9028
(cell)
Greenbelt, Maryland 20771,
USA. Fax:
1-301-286-0264
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SOHO WEB: http://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/
PERSONAL WEB: http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/localinfo/brekke.html
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
========
(6) QUE93148: A PART OF THE MANTLE OF ASTEROID 4 VESTA?
>From Ron Baalke <baalke@zagami.jpl.nasa.gov>
http://www.psrd.hawaii.edu/Jan03/QUE93148.html
QUE 93148: A Part of the Mantle of Asteroid 4 Vesta?
Planetary Science Research Discoveries
January 23, 2003
--- A tiny meteorite tells a story of
melting in the deep
mantle of a big
asteroid.
Written by Christine Floss
Washington University in St. Louis
Meteorites recovered from Antarctica and other places on Earth
are generally
first classified based on their mineralogies and textures. While
this
approach works fairly well for large meteorites, it is quite a
bit more
difficult to determine what group a meteorite belongs to when
only a small
fragment is found. This is especially true when that fragment
consists of
only one or two different coarse-grained minerals. Such was the
case for QUE
93148 found in the Queen Alexandra Range, Antarctica in 1993.
Although it
was originally classified as a lodranite, geochemical data soon
showed that
it did not belong to this group. It currently appears that QUE
93148 is
related in some way to main group pallasites and may be a chip of
the mantle
of the asteroid in which pallasites formed.
Reference:
Floss, Christine, (2002) Queen Alexandra
Range 93148: a new type of
pyroxene pallasite? Meteoritics and
Planetary Science, v. 37, p.
1129-1139.
Full story here:
http://www.psrd.hawaii.edu/Jan03/QUE93148.html
===========
(7) UTAH BOWLED OVER BY METEOR PLAN
>From Ron Baalke <baalke@zagami.jpl.nasa.gov>
>From The Observer, 26 January 2003
http://www.guardian.co.uk/spacedocumentary/story/0,2763,882549,00.html
Robin McKie, science editor
Famed for the rocket-assisted cars that career across its vast
terrain in
bids for land-speed records, Utah's salt flats now face a new
environmental
threat: bowling balls from outer space.
In a milestone of scientific eccentricity, local astronomers have
announced
that they want to simulate the behaviour of falling meteorites by
dropping
bowling balls from aircraft - though the plan has gone down like
a lead
spaceship with government officials.
Members of Salt Lake Astronomical Society, desperate for
interplanetary
glory, dreamed up the idea after deciding to search Bonneville
salt flats
for fallen meteorites. The aim was to find one in mint condition,
just as
meteorites are found preserved on Antarctic ice sheets.
'Unfortunately, we found nothing - mainly because we didn't
really know what
we were looking for. We actually don't know if meteorites will
punch through
the salt crust, explode, or bounce off,' said society organiser
Patrick
Wiggins.
So the group decided to experiment - by dropping bowling balls
from a great
height. 'Released high in the atmosphere, the balls would reach
the same
velocity as a meteorite. Then we would discover if they bounced
off, punched
through or exploded,' added Wiggins.
Members began searching for aircraft and a cooperative bowling
alley until
the government's Bureau of Land Management heard of the plan.
Officials were
not amused. The prospect of high speed bowling balls plunging
into the
weather stations, geology researchers or racing car enthusiasts
that
populate the salt flat was simply not acceptable, they announced.
So the
plan has been put on ice until the society can convince them that
it is
safe. Members of the society are now preparing a reportso that
officials can
determine if the proposal can go ahead.
For their part, society members emphasise they are not eccentric.
For a
start, they will not just limit themselves to bowling balls: they
will also
drop putters' shots and rocks. As Wiggins said: 'Everyone likes
to drop
things from planes.' Indeed, the society even considered dropping
a real
meteorite to ensure realism, but realised it just might get lost.
'We're not stupid,' added Wiggins.
Copyright 2003, The Observer
============
(8) NASA PROJECT AIMING TO UNDERSTAND SUN-EARTH SYSTEM
>From NASANews@hq.nasa.gov
Nancy Neal
NASA Headquarters,
Washington
January 23, 2003
(Phone: 202-358-2369)
RELEASE: 03-017
NASA ASSIGNS "LIVING WITH A STAR MISSIONS" TO APL
NASA has authorized the John Hopkins University Applied
Physics Laboratory (APL), Laurel, Md., to proceed with the
implementation of the Geospace missions under NASA's
existing "Living with a Star" contract with APL. The
Living
with a Star (LWS) program seeks to address how the
variability in the sun affects life on Earth as well as its
affect on space weather.
LWS sets out to quantify the physics, dynamics and behavior
of the Sun-Earth system over the 11-year solar cycle and
improve understanding of solar variability and disturbances
on terrestrial climate change. It will also provide data and
scientific understanding aimed at developing a predictive
capability for space weather affects. In addition, LWS will
give scientists a detailed characterization of radiation
environments useful in the design of more reliable
electronic components for air and space transportation
systems.
The two missions assigned to the APL make-up the LWS
Geospace Project. These missions were recently identified in
a study completed by the Geospace Mission Definition Team, a
group tasked by NASA Headquarters to identify LWS Geospace
Project goals and priorities. The two missions are the
Ionosphere-Thermosphere Mapper Mission (ITM) and the
Radiation Belt Mapper Mission (RBM).
The first of these, the ITM mission, will investigate the
physical processes that modify and change the Earth's thin
outer atmosphere, the region where the planet meets space.
The ITM will make measurements of the composition and
physical properties of the upper atmosphere between 53-620
miles altitude. Understanding this region of space above
Earth, and the sun's effects, will help us with the
operation of the International Space Station that operates
in this region. It is also a region that modifies the
signals of navigation satellites, such as the Global
Positioning System.
The Radiation Belt Mission will use two spacecraft in a near
equatorial elliptical orbit to take measurements in the
space above the ionosphere where the Earth's magnetic field
interacts with the magnetic field of the sun. The
interaction of these fields of wind provides an energy
source for the Earth's magnetosphere and drives a part of
the observed variation of the Earth's magnetic field. It is
in this region the processes of interaction of the fields of
the Earth and sun trap and energizes ions and electrons in
radiation belts. The dynamic changes of this region can have
important effects on civil and military communications
satellite systems.
The ITM and RBM are planned for launch in 2008 and 2010
respectively. The timing is such that the solar magnetic
activity cycle, operating with an 11-year period, will be at
or near a maximum during these missions. The program is
designed to use information at the extreme of this cycle to
lead to major advances in our understanding and ability to
predict space weather.
The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory in
Laurel, Md. is responsible for implementation of the
Geospace Project. Implementation includes the design and
development of the two spacecraft.
LWS is part of the Sun-Earth Connection theme within the
Office of Space Science at NASA Headquarters in Washington.
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. manages
the LWS program.
More information about the LWS program is available on the
Internet at:
http://lws.gsfc.nasa.gov/lws.htm
=========
(9) SURPRISE, SURPRISE: "EUROPE'S SPACE PROGRAMME LACKING
VISION"
>From Space Daily, 24 January 2003
http://www.spacedaily.com/2003/030117143116.n5prfxgp.html
PARIS (AFP) Jan 17, 2003
A top French space official on Friday singled out Europe's
troubled Ariane
rocket programme for blunt criticism, saying it suffered from
management
problems and blinkered thinking and needed the kick of
inspiration.
The Ariane 5 rocket has been put on de-facto hold since a
disastrous failure
last month and experts at the European Space Agency (ESA) and
Arianespace,
which markets the launcher, are carrying out a thorough review to
see what
went wrong.
Roger-Maurice Bonnet, chairman of a commission on France's space
policy,
warned that ESA's launch potential depended crucially on the
Ariane 5, after
the workhorse Ariane 4 is withdrawn from service as scheduled
next month.
"Without Ariane, Europe's space programme is hobbled. We
have to restore
trust among its users. The No. 1 priority has to be
reliability," he told
reporters.
============================
* LETTERS TO THE MODERATOR *
============================
(10) UK SPACE POLICY: HAS BRITAIN GIVEN UP ON SPACEGUARD?
>From Jonathan Tate <fr77@dial.pipex.com]
Benny,
The draft of the UK's new Space policy document entitled
"The draft UK Space
Policy 2003 - 2006 and beyond" was unveiled yesterday and is
now available
on the BNSC website at:
http://www.bnsc.gov.uk/index.cfm?fast=news&Lang=6&action=readArticle&article=292
The key words "asteroid" and "NEO" (Near
Earth Object) do not appear
anywhere in the document, and "comets" are only
mentioned in the context of
Giotto and Rosetta. There is no reference to the impact
hazard at all.
Glad to see that the UK is still taking a "world lead"
in NEO matters then!
Comments on the BNSC draft should be sent to one of the following
addresses
no later than 30 April 2003:
By email to ukspaceconsult@bnsc.gsi.gov.uk
By Post to:
Strategy Consultation
British National Space Centre
Bay 175
151 Buckingham Palace Road
LONDON SW1W 9SS
Or by fax to Strategy Consultation - 020 7215 0936
We'll have to wait and see what falls out of the OECD GSF meeting
in
Frascati last week. As you know, I was due to attend as a
member of the
Board of Directors of the Spaceguard Foundation (who were
instrumental in
setting up the meeting in Italy). However, my attendance
was actually
vetoed by the British delegation. As Sir Crispin Tickell pointed
out, it's
rather nice to see that Spaceguard UK frightens them so much!
Jay
=======
(11) PRAVDA "KILLER ASTEROID" STORY (17 January 2003)
>From Vadim A. Simonenko < sva@sva.ch70.chel.su>
Dear colleagues,
Unfortunately it is impossible to monitor and to react on all
scientific,
quasi-scientific and anti-scientific publications in Russia.
It is very typical for such publications that some information is
correct
but other parts contain many mistakes, occasionally or
intentionally
distorted data, or just some nonsense like ..."The reason to
it was a huge
meteorite hundreds times larger than the famous Tunguska
meteorite, which
can drop on the Earth on January 25, 2003. The most optimistic
forecasts say
that if the meteorite falls, it may raze to the ground the
territory of
several thousands of square kilometers.." The damage area of
about 2000
square kilometers was for Tunguska object but the object of
several
kilometers size is of a global scale impactor.
It's pity that the author, may be having a good intention, did
not discuss
such points with specialists. As a journalist reaction on this
publication
we had two calls from some press agencies in Moscow to Space
Shield
Foundation at Snezhinsk. We have explained them the subject but
we don't
know if they would publish the information.
I guess it is not the last publication of such type. And the best
way to
withstand them is to spread the real information. We are just on
the
beginning of this way in this country.
Best wishes,
Vadim A. Simonenko
Space Shield Foundation
Russia
==========
(12) SCARE-MONGERING AND MEGA TSUNAMI HAZARDS
>From Michael Paine <mpaine@tpg.com.au>
Dear Benny
A committee of the Tsunami Society recently issued the following
press
release. It parallels repeated concerns about media handling of
the NEO
threat.
regards
Michael Paine
THE TSUNAMI SOCIETY
Founded 1982
Box 37970
Honolulu, HI, 96817, U.S.A.
January 15, 2003
MEGA TSUNAMI HAZARDS
http://www.sthjournal.org/media.htm
The mission of the Tsunami Society includes "the
dissemination of knowledge
about tsunamis to scientists, officials, and the public". We
have established
a committee of private, university, and government scientists to
accomplish part of
this goal by correcting misleading or invalid information
released to public
about this hazard. We can supply both valid, correct and
important information
and advice to the public, and the names of reputable scientists
active
in the field of tsunami, who can provide such information.
Most recently, the Discovery Channel has replayed a program on
alleging
potential destruction of coastal areas of the Atlantic by tsunami
waves which
might be generated in the near future by a volcanic
collapse in the Canary
Islands. Other reports have involved a smaller but similar
catastrophe from Kilauea volcano
on the island of Hawai`i. They like to call these occurences
"mega tsunamis". We
would like to halt the scaremongering from these unfounded
reports. We wish to provide the
media with factual information so that the public can be properly
informed
about actual hazards of tsunamis and their mitigation.
Here are a set of facts, agreed on by committee members, about
the
claims in these reports:
- While the active volcano of Cumbre Vieja on Las Palma is
expected to
erupt again, it will not send a large part of the island into the
ocean,
though small landslides may occur. The Discovery program
does not bring out
in the interviews that such volcanic collapses are extremely rare
events,
separated in geologic time by thousands or even millions of
years.
- No such event - a mega tsunami - has occurred in either
the Atlantic
or Pacific oceans in recorded history. NONE.
- The colossal collapses of Krakatau or Santorin (the two most
similar
known happenings) generated catastrophic waves in the
immediate area but
hazardous waves did not propagate to distant shores.
Carefully performed
numerical and experimental model experiments on such events and
of the
postulated Las Palma event verify that the relatively short waves
from these
small, though intense, occurrences do not travel as do tsunami
waves from a major
earthquake.
- The U.S. volcano observatory, situated on Kilauea, near the
current
eruption, states that there is no likelihood of that part of the
island
breaking off into the ocean.
- These considerations have been published in journals and
discussed at
conferences sponsored by the Tsunami Society.
Some papers on this subject include:
"Evaluation of the threat of Mega Tsunami Generation From
....Volcanoes
on La Palma ... and Hawaii", George Pararas-Carayannis, in
Science of
Tsunami Hazards, Vol 20, No.5, pages 251-277, 2002.
"Modeling the La Palma Landslide Tsunami", Charles
L. Mader, in Science
of Tsunami Hazards, Vol. 19, No. 3, pages
160-180, 2001.
"Volcano Growth and the Evolution of the Island of
Hawaii", J.G. Moore
and D.A.Clague, in the Geologic Society of America Bulletin, 104,
1992.
Committee members for this project report include:
Mr. George Curtis, Hilo, HI (Committee Chairman)
808-963-6670
Dr. Tad Murty, Ottawa, Canada, 613-731-8900
Dr. Charles McCreery, Honolulu, HI, 808-689-6655
Dr. Laura Kong, Honolulu, HI, 808-532-6422
Dr. George Pararas-Carayannis, Honolulu, HI,
808-943-1150
Dr. Charles L. Mader, Los Alamos, NM, 808-396-9855
and all can comment on this or other tsunami matters.
For information regarding the Tsunami Society and its
publications ,
visit: www.sthjournal.org.
For general and educational material on tsunamis, check:
www.tsunami.org.
==========
(13) SOLAR CYCLES AND TERRESTRIAL CLIMATE
>From Oliver K. Manuel <oess@umr.edu>
Dear Benny,
NASA has launched a new spacecraft to look for a connection
between
our climate and solar cycles. The CNN news story is available
on-line at
http://www.cnn.com/2003/TECH/space/01/25/solar.launch.ap/index.html
The results may be of great value, if their interpretation is not
limited to the standard solar model.
With kind regards,
Oliver K. Manuel
--
Professor of Nuclear Chemistry
University of Missouri
Rolla, MO 65401 USA
Phone: 573-341-4420 or -4344
Fax: 573-341-6033
E-mail: oess@umr.edu or om@umr.edu
http://www.umr.edu/~om/
=======
(14) AND FINALLY: ARMAGEDDON FICTION GRIPS THE US
>From BBC News Online, 19 January 2003
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/2670591.stm
By Justin Webb
BBC Washington correspondent
Fifty million Americans at the last count, are reading a series
of novels
which dramatise the 'end times' as fundamentalist Christians call
them. The
books also deliver a strong political message. In these
fundamentalist
tales, Jesus Christ swoops back to earth and Christians are all
taken up to
heaven, as foreseen in the Book of Revelation in the Bible.
Millions upon millions of ordinary Americans, and not just the
ones who live
in log huts and think the government is poisoning the water, are
reading
them.
The author is an evangelical preacher named Tim Lehaye.
"Never in the history of mankind has there been so much fear
of
self-annihilation," he told the BBC. "People are asking
the question what is
going to happen in the future, and the Bible gives them the
answer."...
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