PLEASE NOTE:
*
CCNet CLIMATE SCARES & CLIMATE CHANGE - 20 February 2002
--------------------------------------------------------
"2001: The global average annual temperature of the lower
atmosphere
was 0.055°C above the long-term (1979-1998) mean. The
temperature averaged
over the Northern Hemisphere was 0.125°C above the 20-year
average,
while the temperature averaged over the Southern Hemisphere was
0.015°C below the 1979-1998 average. This marked the third year
in a row
that temperatures averaged south of the equator were below
normal, and the
8th time in the last 10 years. Although the Southern hemisphere
shows a slight cooling trend, and the Northern Hemisphere shows
some
warming, none of the trends is statistically significant -
meaning that
you cannot reliably rule out the possibility that they result
from random
assemblage alone."
--World Climate Report, 25 February 2002
(1) GLOBAL SATELLITE TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENTS: 2001 WAS
UNREMARKABLE YEAR
World Climate Report, 25 February 2002
(2) CLIMATE VARIABILITY NOT VARYING
World Climate Report, February 2002
(3) MILLENNIAL-SCALE CLIMATIC OSCILLATIONS IN CENTRAL CHILE
CO2 Science Magazine, 20 February 2002
(4) GLOBAL CLIMATE SHIFT LINKED TO GREENHOUSE
Michael Paine <mpaine@tpgi.com.au>
(5) GLOBAL SEA LEVELS LIKELY TO RISE HIGHER IN 21ST CENTURY THAN
PREVIOUS
PREDICTIONS
Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>
(6) SCIENTISTS SAY POLAR WARMING CONTINUES WITH ICE MASS LOSSES
Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>
(7) IN THE MEANTIME: COLD SPELL THREATENS SIBERIA'S BIG CATS
BBC Online News, 18 February 2002
==================
(1) GLOBAL SATELLITE TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENTS: 2001 WAS
UNREMARKABLE YEAR
>From World Climate Report, 25 February 2002
http://www.co2andclimate.org/climate/v7n12/track.htm
This temperature update presents an annual summary of the NASA
satellite
measurements of monthly temperature anomalies-the difference
between the
observed values and the 1979-1998 mean values. Global satellite
measurements
are made from a series of orbiting platforms that sense the
average
temperature in various atmospheric layers. Here, we present the
lowest
level, which matches nearly perfectly with the mean temperatures
measured by
weather balloons in the layer between 5,000 and 28,000 feet. The
satellite
measurements are considered accurate to within 0.01°C and
provide more
uniform coverage of the entire globe than surface measurements,
which tend
to concentrate over land.
2001: The global average annual temperature of the lower
atmosphere was
0.055°C above the long-term (1979-1998) mean. The temperature
averaged over
the Northern Hemisphere was 0.125°C above the 20-year average,
while the
temperature averaged over the Southern Hemisphere was 0.015°C
below the
1979-1998 average. This marked the third year in a row that
temperatures
averaged south of the equator were below normal, and the 8th time
in the
last 10 years. Figure 1 shows the 23-year annual temperature
history of each
of these regions. Although the Southern hemisphere shows a slight
cooling
trend, and the Northern Hemisphere shows some warming, none of
the trends is
statistically significant-meaning that you cannot reliably rule
out the
possibility that they result from random assemblage alone.
Figure 2 [ http://www.co2andclimate.org/climate/v7n12/track.htm
] shows the
spatial patterns of hemispheric (Western and Eastern this time)
temperature
departures for 2001. Temperatures in the tropical regions were
generally
below average, while temperatures in the temperate regions were
typically
warmer than normal. The largest warm anomaly was experienced
across most of
Canada, with temperatures anomalies there exceeding 1°C. Most of
the rest of
the world witnessed temperatures within a degree or so of
average. All in
all, 2001 was not a remarkable year (at least in terms of lower
atmospheric
temperatures).
===============
(2) CLIMATE VARIABILITY NOT VARYING
>From World Climate Report, February 2002
http://www.co2andclimate.org/climate/v7n12/hot.htm
A favorite scare story among global warming true believers is
that climate
is becoming more extreme. But as usual, this tale of climate
terror doesn't
have a dollop of data to support it in the refereed literature.
In fact, further confirmation that our climate is not wildly
flailing about
comes from a recent paper by climatologists Konstantin Vinnikov
and Alan
Robock. They looked at a variety of climate indicators to see if
they show
any tendency toward higher variability over the period 1901-2000.
Vinnikov and Robock first calculated the linear trend through
their data,
and then the departure of each year's observation from the trend
line. The
resulting anomalies, which statisticians call
"residuals," essentially
reflect how good the linear trend fits the data.
But if the climate were becoming more variable over time, the
departures of
powers (squares, cubes, etc.) of the residuals from the linear
trend line
should be generally larger in 2000 than they were in 1901. So if
climate
variability really is increasing, there should be evidence in
those residual
functions.
Well, they didn't find any trends. For example, Figure 1a shows
the linear
trend in 100 years of U.S. annual precipitation totals.
Precipitation is
increasing across the United States at a rate of about 5.8 cm
(2.28 inches)
per century. But the year-to-year variability of rainfall is
unchanged
(Figure 1b). This is clearly good news: Precipitation is no more
erratic
from year to year than it was in the early 1900s, and
agricultural crops
(and golf course superintendents-see article below) sure do love
that extra
bit of moisture.
What about floods and droughts? With all that additional
rainfall, isn't
flooding more likely? The authors also examined the Palmer
Drought Severity
Index (PDSI), which varies from extreme drought (large negative
values) to
extreme wetness (large positive values). Across the United
States, there is
no long-term trend in the PDSI (Figure 1c) or in the PDSI
variability
(Figure 1d). Those all-too-common cries about increasing floods
and droughts
simply aren't supported by the data.
The authors also found no trends or variability changes in the
Indian
monsoon or the Southern Oscillation Index, which is linked to El
Niño.
>From 1901 to 2000, the global average surface temperature
increased by about
0.7°C. Part of that increase is likely related to greenhouse gas
levels. Yet
despite this warming, which would allegedly produce a more
variable climate,
there's no data to support that notion. Next time you hear some
fearmonger
blabbing about wild climate variations, remember the difference
between
climate extremes and climate extremism.
Reference:
Vinnikov, K.Y. and A. Robock, 2002. Trends in moments of climatic
indices,
Geophysical Research Letters, 29, 10.1029/2001GL014025.
==============
(3) MILLENNIAL-SCALE CLIMATIC OSCILLATIONS IN CENTRAL CHILE
>From CO2 Science Magazine, 20 February 2002
http://www.co2science.org/journal/2002/v5n8c1.htm
Reference
Jenny, B., Valero-Garces, B.L., Urrutia, R., Kelts, K., Veit, H.,
Appleby,
P.G. and Geyh M. 2002. Moisture changes and fluctuations of
the Westerlies
in Mediterranean Central Chile during the last 2000 years: The
Laguna Aculeo
record (33°50'S). Quaternary International 87: 3-18.
What was done
The authors studied geochemical, sedimentological and
diatom-assemblage data
derived from sediment cores extracted from one of the largest
natural lakes
in Central Chile (Laguna Aculeo), in order to obtain information
about the
hydrologic climate of that region over the past two millennia.
What was learned
>From 200 BC, when the record began, until AD 200, conditions
were primarily
dry. This period of time coincides with the latter part of
what is often
referred to as the Roman Warm Period (see our Journal Review of
McDermott et
al., 2001). Subsequently, from AD 200-700 - with a slight respite
in the
central hundred years of that period - there was a high frequency
of flood
events. This period of time likewise coincides with what is
generally
called the Dark Ages Cold Period (see again McDermott et al.,
2001). Then
came a several-hundred-year period of less flooding that was
coeval with
what is generally referred to as the Medieval Warm Period. This
more benign
period was then followed by another period of frequent flooding
from
1300-1700 - which picked up again about 1850 - that was of the
same
timeframe as the Little Ice Age.
What it means
The striking temporal correspondence of these Central Chile
millennial-scale
climatic oscillations and those depicted in proxy climate records
from
Europe bear testimony to the global nature of this important
aspect of the
planet's natural climate variability over two full cycles of
oscillatory
behavior. How can anyone doubt the reality and worldwide nature
of these
climatic oscillations? Or the fact that the warming of the past
century (and
some possible yet-future warming) is nothing more than the next
phase of
this ongoing, and anthropogenically-unaided, cyclical behavior,
i.e.,
earth's natural and inevitable ascendancy into what we call the
Modern Warm
Period?
Reference
McDermott, F., Mattey, D.P. and Hawkesworth, C. 2001.
Centennial-scale
Holocene climate variability revealed by a high-resolution
speleotherm ð18O
record from SW Ireland. Science 294: 1328-1331.
Copyright © 2002. Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide
and Global Change
=============
(4) GLOBAL CLIMATE SHIFT LINKED TO GREENHOUSE
>From Michael Paine <mpaine@tpgi.com.au>
Dear Benny
see http://www.csiro.gov.au/index.asp?type=mediaRelease&id=WarmingUp
Global climate shift linked to greenhouse
New evidence is emerging that greenhouse gases may have tipped
the world
into a changed climate pattern, say CSIRO researchers.
regards
Michael Paine
===============
(5) GLOBAL SEA LEVELS LIKELY TO RISE HIGHER IN 21ST CENTURY THAN
PREVIOUS
PREDICTIONS
>From Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>
Office of News Services
University of Colorado-Boulder
3100 Marine Street, 5th Floor
584 UCB
Boulder, Colorado 80309-0584
(303) 492-6431
CONTACT:
Mark Meier, (303) 492-6556, Mark.meier@colorado.edu
Jim Scott, (303) 492-3114
Note to Editors: Contents embargoed until 10 a.m. EST Saturday,
Feb. 16. The
phone number for the AAAS newsroom in Boston is (617) 236-1550.
Meier will
participate in a AAAS press briefing at 10 a.m. Feb. 16.
GLOBAL SEA LEVELS LIKELY TO RISE HIGHER IN 21ST CENTURY THAN
PREVIOUS
PREDICTIONS
New calculations by a University of Colorado at Boulder
researcher indicate
global sea levels likely will rise more by the end of this
century than
predictions made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
in 2001.
The projected sea-level rise is due to a revised estimate of the
ice melt
from glaciers, said geological sciences Emeritus Professor Mark
Meier. Meier
presented the findings Feb. 16th at a meeting of the American
Association
for the Advancement of Science in Boston.
Meier and CU-Boulder colleague Mark Dyurgerov have collected new
data
showing the world's glaciers and ice caps have exhibited
significant ice
loss in the 20th century, which has accelerated since 1988. That
loss has
contributed to at least 20 percent of the observed rise in
sea level, said Meier.
"Some glaciers around the world now are smaller than they
have been in the
last several thousand years," he said.
"The rate of ice loss since 1988 has more than
doubled," said Meier, a
researcher and former director of CU-Boulder's Institute for
Arctic and
Alpine Research. Dyurgerov also is an INSTAAR researcher.
Meier said the IPCC report might have underestimated the wastage
of glaciers
and ice caps around the word -- excluding Greenland and
Antarctica -- for
several reasons. The IPPC did not include increases in ice
wastage since the
late 1980s, an apparent increase in the sensitivity of ice
wastage to both
temperature and precipitation, and a probable increase in melting
from
small, cold glaciers surrounding the Greenland and Antarctic ice
sheets, he
said.
In addition, new data from colleagues at the University of Alaska
show that
huge glaciers on the West Coast of Alaska and northern Canada are
wasting
rapidly, said Meier. The melting of these large glaciers has
contributed
roughly 0.14 millimeters per year in sea rise over the long-term,
according
to calculations by Meier and Dyurgerov, jumping to more than 0.32
millimeters per year during the last decade.
The IPCC, which estimated global ice wastage of only 0.3
millimeters per
year, probably underestimated the contribution of glacier
disintegration to
sea-level rise because little data on the large, maritime
glaciers in Alaska
was available, said Meier. But this region is the largest
contributor to
sea-level rise, he said.
"The sensitivity of glacier melt to temperature rise depends
largely on
precipitation, which in some 'glaciered' areas like southern
coastal Alaska
has been greatly under-measured," said Meier.
"The large glaciers of Alaska and adjacent Canada currently
are contributing
about half of the rate of global ice loss, exclusive of Greenland
and
Antarctic ice sheets," said Meier. "But they contain
only 17 percent of the
glacier ice area."
The new data suggests the IPCC calculation for the 21st century
-- a total
of 0.16 to 0.36 feet -- was an underestimate, said Meier. He
calculated that
glacier melting could contribute 0.65 feet or more to sea level
this
century.
The IPCC estimated that other processes such as ocean warming
would cause an
additional 0.36 feet to 1.4 feet of sea-level rise by the year
2100, Meier
said.
"These estimates in sea-level rise may seem small, but a
1-foot rise in sea
level typically will cause a retreat of shoreline of 100 feet or
more, which
would have substantial social and economic impacts," Meier
said.
Meier said that in the United States, some large coastal cities
like Houston
"are not much above sea level now." He also said island
nations such as
Seychelles off the West Coast of Africa and Kiribati southwest of
Hawaii are
within a meter of being inundated by sea rise.
In addition, sea rise of only 1 meter in Bangladesh would put
one-half of
the nation underwater, displacing more than 100 million people.
================
(6) SCIENTISTS SAY POLAR WARMING CONTINUES WITH ICE MASS LOSSES
>From Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>
Office of News Services
University of Colorado-Boulder
3100 Marine Street, 5th Floor
584 UCB
Boulder, Colorado 80309-0584
(303) 492-6431
CONTACT:
Ted Scambos, (303) 492-1113
Mark Serreze, (303) 492-2963
Annette Varani, (303) 492-5952
Jim Scott, (303) 492-3114
Feb. 17, 2002
SCIENTISTS SAY POLAR WARMING CONTINUES WITH ICE MASS LOSSES
Despite regional differences, continued study of a broad spectrum
of
evidence lends credence to climate warming theories, say
climatologist Mark
Serreze and glaciologist Ted Scambos of the National Snow and Ice
Data
Center at the University of Colorado at Boulder.
The National Snow and Ice Data Center is part of the Cooperative
Institute
for Research in Environmental Sciences, based at CU-Boulder.
Serreze and
Scambos presented the finding at a meeting of the American
Association for
the Advancement of Science in Boston Feb. 16th.
In summer 2000, an international team of scientists led by
Serreze released
results of a study documenting widespread environmental changes
over the
Arctic. As part of their study, they noted late 20th century
Arctic
temperatures were the warmest in 400 years.
"Recent data show more of the same," Serreze said.
"We're seeing significant
surface air temperature increases over the Arctic Ocean,
accompanied not
only by an 18-year downturn in ice cover over the Atlantic Ocean
but by a
record reduction in ice cover over the Beaufort and Chukchi seas
in late
summer 1998." Arctic sea ice cover also is thinning
significantly.
Results for 2000 showed that global mean temperatures have risen
1 degree
Fahrenheit over the past 100 years, while parts of northern North
America
and northern Eurasia warmed much more in the winter months over
the past 30
years.
Funded by the National Science Foundation's Office of Polar
Programs, the
climate study made a sweeping examination of existing evidence
for recent
environmental change in the northern high latitudes. It compared
findings to
climate model predictions of human-induced greenhouse warming.
The researchers assessed a wide body of long-term data including
temperatures, sea ice and ocean structure, snow and glacier
cover, and
atmospheric circulation.
The picture in Antarctica parallels northern ice reductions.
"Ice shelves
that have been stable for centuries are being lost over a
spectacularly
short period of time," said scientist Ted Scambos.
"After hundreds of years
in the making, it took only one decade of high summer
temperatures to see
the destruction of both the Larsen A and Larsen B ice
shelves."
Scambos said that this process may indicate that other, larger
ice shelves
are more vulnerable than previously believed.
"After several years of gradual reductions in extent, Larsen
A was lost in
about a week at the end of January 1995," he said.
"Over 1,700 square
kilometers of ice shelf disintegrated in a single storm event.
For weeks
afterward, a plume of smaller icebergs was visible in satellite
images,
drifting away from the Antarctic Peninsula."
According to Scambos, starting in early 1998 and accelerating in
1999 and
2000, the Larsen B ice shelf also began to retreat, losing more
than 2,400
square kilometers.
"The retreats and melting are due to a very strong climatic
warming trend,"
Scambos said. "Mean temperatures in the peninsula have
increased 2.5 degrees
Celsius over the last 50 years."
After a study funded by NASA's Office of Earth Sciences, Scambos
and
colleagues Christina Hulbe of Portland State University and Mark
Fahnestock
of the University of Maryland, have proposed that Antarctic ice
shelves are
at risk when summer melting reaches the point at which melt-ponds
form on
the ice surface.
When ice shelves are not compressed between adjoining land
masses, they are
susceptible to surface cracking. Cracks admit water that wedges
in and
shatters the ice, rapidly making it weak.
To initiate the extensive melting needed to form ponds, a mean
summer
temperature of about minus 1 C is needed -- typical in January in
the
Southern Hemisphere.
This model of warming, ponding and disintegration means that
several ice
shelves are more at risk than previously believed, Scambos said.
In
particular, the giant Ross Ice Shelf, a region of floating ice
about the
size of Texas, has areas with mean January temperatures only a
few degrees
below the ponding threshold.
If a warming trend similar to that experienced in the Antarctic
Peninsula
were to occur for the Ross, the ponding and disintegration
process could
begin there. Closer to the threshold are the Wilkins and George
VI ice
shelves, where some ponding and retreat have already begun.
For more information on Antarctic ice shelves, see the National
Snow and Ice
Data Center Web site at http://nsidc.org/iceshelves/index.html
=============
(7) IN THE MEANTIME: COLD SPELL THREATENS SIBERIA'S BIG CATS
>From BBC Online News, 18 February 2002
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/europe/newsid_1827000/1827088.stm
The tigers' prey could be wiped out by the deep snow
Fears are growing for the survival of endangered leopards and
tigers in
Russia's Far East, as freak weather conditions threaten them with
starvation.
Heavy snowfalls in the Primorski region could all but wipe-out
the deer and
boar which the Amur tiger and Far Eastern leopard feed on.
Only about 350 Siberian tigers and 40 Siberian leopards still
exist in the
world - all of them in the region.
The World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) has been taking emergency
measures to
try to save the Sika deer, Roe deer and wild boars affected by
the snows.
Poacher danger
Snow in the region is up to 1.5 metres deep. The deer already
find it
difficult to find food in the forest with snow-levels of 40
centimetres.
Up to 100,000 animals have been left without food.
WWF predicts that between 80% and 90% of the deer and boar in the
south-west
of the region could die.
Reports also say that the animals, weakened by hunger, have
become easy prey
for poachers.
Environmentalists have cleared 150 kilometres of road to bring in
several
tonnes of food into the region and have been cutting tree
branches to
provide grazing.
Copyright 2002, BBC
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