PLEASE NOTE:
*
CCNet TERRA 13/2003 - 19 March 2003
-----------------------------------
"This is not the time to falter. This is the time for this
House, not just this government or indeed this Prime Minister,
but for this House to give a lead, to show that we will stand up
for what we know to be right, to show that we will confront the
tyrannies and dictatorships and terrorists who put our way of
life at risk, to show at the moment of decision that we have the
courage to do the right thing."
--Tony Blair, House of Commons, 18 March 2003
"I'm more worried about global warming than I am of any
major military conflict."
--Hans Blix, MTV, 12 March 2003
[archivist comment: Above are two subjective views. What do these
opinions have to to do with an objective assessment of climate
change?! bobk]
(1) ANOTHER COLD WAVE HITS HINDUSTAN
Press Trust of India, 15 March 2003
(2) ANOTHER COLD SPELL HITS BANGLADESH
The Independent (Bangladesh), 17 March 2003
(3) WINTER BACK WITH A VEENGANCE
Canadian Press, 15 March 2003
(4) CLOUDS MITIGATE EFFECTS OF WARMING ON ARTIC
Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>
(5) A 2000-YEAR TIBETAN TEMPERATURE RECORD
CO2 Science Magazine, 19 March 2003
(6) FALL OF THE MAYANS
Newsweek International, 24 March 2003
(7) CULTURAL CLIMATOLOGY
Royal Geographic Society/ Institute of British
Geographers
(8) BUBBLES PROMPT CLIMATE-CHANGE RETHINK
Nature, 14 March 2003
(9) COMPUTER MODEL SIMULATES "LAST GASP OF ICE AGE"
Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>
(10) SCIENTISTS HELP EXPLAIN THE SUN'S CONNECTIONS TO EARTH
Paal Brekke <pbrekke@esa.nascom.nasa.gov>
(11) SOLAR EFFECTS ON TERRESTRIAL CLIMATE
CO2 Science Magazine, 19 March 2003
(12) A "SINK" FOR CO2?
Joe Montani <jmontani@LPL.Arizona.EDU>
(13) IN DEFENCE OF GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
Max Wallis <WallisMK@Cardiff.ac.uk>
(14) AND FINALLY: HOW COLD IS IT? IT'S SO COLD, IT'S WARMING!
National Post, 13 March 2003
===================
(1) ANOTHER COLD WAVE HITS HINDUSTAN
>From Press Trust of India, 15 March 2003
http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/181_213421,0008.htm
Uttaranchal is reeling under a cold wave following heavy snowfall
on the higher reaches of Garhwal Himalaya, including Nandadevi,
Gangotri and the entire hill region bordering Tibet and China.
The holy shrines of Kedarnath, Badrinath, Hemkund-Sahib and
Gangotri also lay shivering with snowfall reported from different
places.
===========
(2) ANOTHER COLD SPELL HITS BANGLADESH
>From The Independent (Bangladesh), 17 March 2003
http://independent-bangladesh.com/news/mar/17/17032003ct.htm#A6
Boro paddy seedbeds on vast tracts of land of the district have
been affected by cold wave and fog causing concern among farmers.
Farmers of the district apprehend that the crisis of seedlings of
Boro paddy will adversely affect the production in the district.
Besides, the cold spell and deep fog have already affected onion
and garlic seedbeds of the district.
=========
(3) WINTER BACK WITH A VEENGANCE
>From Canadian Press, 15 March 2003
http://canada.com/national/story.asp?id=%7B1BDFE609-E39F-47DD-851E-8F2863D32632%7D
There are six icebreakers trying to keep marine traffic flowing
on the frozen East Coast. The Great Lakes are frozen. Not even
the maple sap is flowing. In Eastern Canada, it's been the kind
of winter few can remember, or perhaps just the kind that most
would like to forget.
Despite the heavy ice conditions and a recent wave of numbing
cold snaps in most parts of Eastern Canada, the weather really
isn't that unusual for this time of year. "This is what we
would normally expect for a Canadian winter,'' said Bob
Whitewood, climatologist for Environment Canada....
===========
(4) CLOUDS MITIGATE EFFECTS OF WARMING ON ARTIC
>From Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>
University Communications
University of Wisconsin-Madison
03/13/03
Clouds mitigate effects of warming on Arctic
By Emily Carlson
Cloudy weather may dampen the human spirit, but it also may
dampen the effects of global warming on the Arctic, according to
new study published in the March 14 issue of the journal Science.
Data from dozens of meteorological stations show that the surface
temperature across Arctic land and water keeps getting warmer.
However, researchers at UW-Madison now show that Arctic clouds
and the climate conditions with which the clouds interact produce
a cooling effect, possibly offsetting to some degree the effects
of global warming in this region.
Xuanji Wang, UW-Madison graduate student and lead author of the
paper, and Jeff Key, a scientist with the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) at UW-Madison's Cooperative
Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS), studied a
number of climate changes across the Arctic region during the
period of 1982 to 1999. Specifically, they noted changes in the
surface temperature of the land and ocean, cloud coverage, and
surface albedo -- the amount of light reflected off surfaces,
such as snow or ice.
While a number of researchers have monitored Arctic surface
temperature and sea ice extent over the years, the Wisconsin
scientists say few have studied other conditions, such as cloud
cover, and none have examined how changes in these conditions
interact.
"To understand how and why the climate is changing, you have
to think about the feedback systems," says Wang. One of the
most important feedback systems, he notes, is "cloud
forcing." This system involves the interplay among clouds,
surface temperature and surface reflectivity (albedo).
Clouds play an important role in climate: not only do they
reflect energy from the sun to the ground, but they also can trap
heat emitted by the earth and re-emit some of that energy back to
the surface. Depending on other climate conditions, such as
surface albedo, clouds can either enhance or inhibit surface
warming, says Wang.
For instance, when the ground is covered by snow, as is the case
for much of the Arctic, solar energy reflects off the snow and is
absorbed by clouds. The result: the surface stays cool. But once
the covering melts, the ground absorbs the solar energy and
surface temperatures rise.
Because cloud coverage, albedo and surface temperature all
contribute to the outcome, small changes in one of the factors
can produce big changes overall: as the surface warms, ice begins
to melt, the ground absorbs solar energy and the surface
temperature rises even more.
Recognizing the interplay among climate factors, Wang and Key set
out to understand how aspects of the Arctic climate respond to
changes in surface temperature. "Surface temperature is the
most
important variable of the energy budget," says Key.
"But to understand why it is changing, we need to measure
other characteristics of the climate."
To do this, the researchers used satellite data collected across
the Arctic region to compute
surface temperature, albedo and cloud properties. This
information helped the Wisconsin team determine cloud forcing --
a measurement of the warming or cooling effect of clouds that
depends on the interactions among the various climate conditions.
They averaged data for each season, as well as for each year.
The researchers found that Arctic surface temperature during the
spring, summer and autumn has warmed at decadal rates of 1.1, 0.7
and 0.7 degrees Celsius, respectively. This data confirms similar
trends noted in previous studies.
Adding to this information, the researchers also found that the
amount of light reflected off the ground or water during these
three seasons has decreased. A lower albedo in autumn, they say,
indicates a longer melt season and a later onset of freezing or
snowfall.
The researchers also found that spring and summer cloud coverage
has increased by 2 to 4 percent per decade, but that winter cloud
coverage has decreased over the years. When data for cloud
coverage was averaged over the year, no changes were noticed.
"The average annual change doesn't tell the whole
story," says Key. "Opposite trends in different seasons
can cancel on an annual scale, but their seasonal effects are
important."
Some of the seasonal changes the researchers found may seem
inconsequential, but Key says they are significant: "The
Arctic is a place where small changes can have big effects. These
effects can signal climate changes elsewhere." He adds,
"That's why it's so important to monitor the Arctic."
To understand the cumulative effects of these small changes on
the Arctic, the researchers calculated cloud forcing. They found
no trend during the spring, but they did find trends toward
increasing cloud cooling during the winter, summer and fall
seasons. Cloud cooling during the summer, the researchers say,
was due in large part to the increased cloud coverage.
"It appears that if clouds conditions weren't
changing," says Key, "the Arctic would be getting
even warmer," which means even more ice would be melting.
More clouds in spring and summer and fewer in winter, he says,
appear to have dampened the consequences of global warming on
this region.
Because of the height at which the clouds formed, the researchers
say the trends they report are the result of not local processes,
such as water evaporation, but large-scale circulation patterns.
More research on this possible link, they add, needs to be
conducted.
Wang and Key say the findings they present confirm and, more
importantly, augment the existing data on Arctic climate change
with information related to changes in albedo, cloud cover and
cloud forcing. "We have added new information on how the
climate responds to warming by looking at parameters not
previously examined," adds Wang.
This information, the two atmospheric scientists say, will help
researchers understand the effects of global warming on the
Arctic and, ultimately, the rest of the globe.
===========
(5) A 2000-YEAR TIBETAN TEMPERATURE RECORD
>From CO2 Science Magazine, 19 March 2003
http://www.co2science.org/journal/2003/v6n12c2.htm
Reference
Yao, T., Thompson, L.G., Duan, K., Xu, B., Wang, N., Pu, J.,
Tian, L., Sun, W., Kang, S. and Qin, X. 2002. Temperature and
methane records over the last 2 ka in Dasuopu ice core.
Science in China (Series D) 45: 1068-1074.
What was done
Among other things, the authors derived a 2000-year proxy
temperature (ð18O) history from an ice core retrieved from
Dasuopu glacier (28°23'N, 85°43'E), which is located in the
central Himalayas, Tibet.
What was learned
In the words of the authors, temperature in the first century
A.D. "was low and [was] followed by a significant increase
until 730 A.D.," whereupon it "reached its maximum
during 730-950 A.D., then it lowered again, which persisted until
1850 A.D.," after which "temperature has increased
gradually to its present levels."
What it means
These intervals correspond, respectively, to the Dark Ages Cold
Period, the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age and, near
the very end of the record, the Modern Warm Period, which
distinctive climatic regimes are evident in the records of many
sites from all around the world. They demonstrate the
reality of a millennial-scale climate cycle that operates
independently of changes in the air's CO2 content. In addition,
the Dasuopu temperature record demonstrates the importance of
considering more than just the past thousand years when
attempting to gain an appreciation for the degree of natural
climate variability one must consider when attempting to assign a
cause to the temperature increase of the past century and a half.
In the words of the authors, "if we just analyse temperature
changes in [the most] recent 1 ka, we may draw a wrong conclusion
that [the] temperature recorded in [the] Dasuopu ice core goes
beyond the natural variability range [near its end]."
Copyright © 2003. Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide
and Global Change
=======
(6) FALL OF THE MAYANS
>From Newsweek International, 24 March 2003
http://www.msnbc.com/news/885920.asp
By John Ness
One man's quest to prove massive drought brought low a once
mighty empire
March 24 issue - There's a spine-chilling moment in the film
"Titanic," after the ship has struck an iceberg, when
an engineer declares disaster to be "a mathematical
certainty." Gerald Haug had a similar epiphany of doom one
evening at his Zurich home last year.
HE HAD PUT his 3-year-old son to bed at 8 o'clock and then sat
down to read "The Great Maya Droughts." The book boldly
addressed the biggest mystery in New World archeology-why the
magnificent Mayan civilization, which had flourished for
centuries and once had a population in the millions, disappeared
so suddenly in the 9th century. The reason, argued author
Richardson Gill, was three catastrophic droughts that struck with
the consistency of a metronome: in A.D. 810, 860 and 910.
Mainstream archeology wasn't having any of Gill's theory, but
Haug, a paleoclimatologist whose lab had been taking climate
measurements of the same period, found it riveting. At about 2 in
the morning, he put down the book and checked the latest results
from his lab. The data gave him a jolt: they showed a century
ravaged by three successive droughts - beginning in 810, 860 and
910. "I was bouncing around the living room," says
Haug.
Haug's measurements of ancient climate variations in the Cariaco
Basin off the coast of Venezuela-hundreds of miles from the Mayan
sites in Mexico, Guatemala and Belize, but affected by the same
weather patterns-confirmed the existence of Gill's droughts.
Haug's research, published last Friday in the U.S. journal
Science , has provided the most conclusive evidence to date that
a series of droughts in 9th-century Central America was an
important cause-perhaps the main cause-of the collapse of Mayan
civilization. The data downplays competing theories that
emphasize a complicated interplay of ecology, disease,
overpopulation and even class warfare. "Careers were made by
coming up with these very complex theories," says Gill.
For the past century archeologists relied on
paleontology-centered methods of inquiry that put a premium on
digging for artifacts and bones for evidence. Research yielded
excellent portraits of Mayan social and economic interactions,
but it never answered the Big Question. And it yielded no
evidence that climate played much of a role-a big reason why
archeologists discounted it. In the 1990s, a chorus of
geologists, paleoclimatologists and other scientists began to
reconsider. The most strident and unorthodox new voice was Gill,
a former banker and freelance archeologist.
As a child growing up in Texas, Gill had seen severe drought.
When the Texas economy tanked in the 1980s, he started
investigating a hunch that drought killed off the Mayans. Most
university archeologists told him respectfully-but plainly-that
they didn't think he was looking in the right place. The first
supporting evidence came in 1995, from geologist David Hodell at
the University of Florida. He and his team examined layers of
sediment underneath Mexico's Lake Chichancanab, which showed the
first evidence of a catastrophic drought-the worst in 7,000
years-around the turn of the 10th century. That was enough for
Gill. In his book, published in 2000, he proposed dates for three
severe droughts. Most archeologists dismissed both the book and
Hodell's evidence-which relied on imprecise radiocarbon dating.
Haug, in 1996, was standing on the deck of a ship off the coast
of Venezuela when workers hauled up a tube of sediment 170 meters
long-encompassing 500,000 years of climate history. Six
centimeters wide and greenish-brown, the core sample is made up
of millions of tiny layers, a year to each half millimeter. As
Venezuela's rivers empty into the Cariaco Basin, they leave a
chemical signature in the sediment that reveals how much rain
fell that year. In 2001, Haug used the core-sample data to narrow
the timing of the droughts to within four to five years, which
left many archeologists unmoved. Haug then teamed up with chemist
Detlef Gunther-who, like Haug, worked at the Swiss Federal
Institute of Technology. Using X-rays, Gunther was able to focus
the precision to within two months. "It's a superb piece of
work and I want to know when these guys can come to the Near East
with me," says Yale archeologist Harvey Weiss, who has
studied the effects of climate on the Mesopotamians. Haug's
latest results show enormous, abrupt swings of climate over the
last century of Mayan society.
It will take time for scientists to integrate the great droughts
into their story of the Mayan's "demographic disaster."
They've already chronicled power struggles, crop failures and
political crises. Three droughts must have put great pressure on
Mayan society. Some Mayan archeologists, though, aren't convinced
that Haug makes an ironclad case. "This is not good
science," says UT Austin's Karl Butzer. Others say Mayan
specialists are just guarding their turf. "The significance
of Hodell's research was clear to all but the Mayan
archeologists," says Weiss. "But those Mayan
archeologists who previously went ballistic with Hodell's data
will be hospitalized by this article."
Scientists will convene in August in Guatemala to work through
the new data. They'll be a few hours' drive from a spot where,
toward the end, disillusioned Mayans are thought to have faced
down their elites-and beheaded them. This year's meeting will be
more civil, but no less confrontational.
© 2003 Newsweek, Inc.
=============
(7) CULTURAL CLIMATOLOGY
Royal Geographic Society/ Institute of British Geographers
http://www.rgs.org/category.php?Page=mainresearch
2003 RGS/IBG Annual Conference
London, 3-5 September 2003
CULTURAL CLIMATOLOGY
Friday 5th September 2003, 1545-1800, Lecture Theatre 2, Imperial
College
John E. Thornes, University of Birmingham
An Introduction to Cultural Climatology
Traditionally geographers have studied the atmosphere through
climatology as a branch of physical geography. This has became
known as geographical climatology, practised by
geographer-climatologists. This is to distinguish it from
meteorological climatology, which is purely interested in the
science of the atmosphere and rarely in the human impacts on or
by the atmosphere. As the emphasis in climatology over the past
20-25 years has been traditionally biased towards meteorological
climatology, the purpose of this session is to make a case for a
more society or culture orientated climatology that considers the
complex interactions between the climate system and the human
social/cultural system. There is a need to establish the main
research themes geographer climatologists pursue and how they
pursue them in terms of approaches to scientific explanation.
This will be examined by a number of papers on the relationships
between climate and society/culture. The session will assess
whether a cultural turn is required of climatologists as
climatology becomes more concerned with the application of its
science to the solution of climate related environmental and
societal problems and therefore needs to earnestly consider the
past, present and future relationships between climate and
society.
-------
Sonya Boehmer-Christiansen, University of Hull
Science, Climate and Culture
Are climate, energy and policy linked through perceived or
expected interest (and hence to some degree culture-bound) or are
they linked through objective consensual knowledge? I argue that
knowledge is secondary and for 'global' climate policy is
selected to serve rather than guide policy and hence interest.
While the concept of climate is accessible to science and hence
causality, it is also deeply culture - and faith - bound
underpinning, in the case of the Kyoto
Protocol, primarily energy interests. The paper outlines why EU
climate policy is likely to be driven by culturally disguised
interests rather than science. This is effective 'at home' but
fails internationally because there is (thank goodness)no global
culture of any depth and hence faith in approaching environmental
catastrophe.
-----------
Benny Peiser, Liverpool John Moores University
Civilisation Collapse and Climate Change
In the current debate about predicted catastrophic climate
change, historical cases of civilisation collapse are
increasingly attributed to palaeo-climatic anomalies during the
last 5000 years. Cultures that once thrived, collapsed because,
it is argued, they failed to endure or adapt to sudden climate
shifts. While the physical causes and cultural dynamics of
civilisation collapse are still unknown, "climate
change" has become the most popular explanation for the
decline and fall of ancient cultures. As a result, some
researchers now warn that catastrophic global warming may lead to
a similar breakdown of modern civilisations. Such anxieties,
however, do not take into account that most cases of societal
collapses are generally linked to climatic downturns. The threat
to complex forms of life and societies is mainly due to abrupt
and persisting cooling and the subsequent shortage of adequate
energy and food resources. Significant warming trends, in
contrast, have been predominantly beneficial to life in general
and human life in particular. During the Holocene, these warm
periods have directly contributed to population increases,
economic growth, technological innovations and the evolution of
complex civilisations. In this paper, I review the current
research on civilisation collapses and scrutinize their alleged
correlation with abrupt climate change.
-----------
Alastair Dawson & Lorne Elliot, Coventry University, Paul
Mayewski, University of Maine,
Lisa Barlow, Instit. of Arctic & Alpine, Boulder, Colorado:
Ocean-atmosphere interactions and rapid climate change in The
North Atlantic region during historical times
Present debate on climate change focuses on two key issues. One
view is that anthropogenic forcing of our climate and the build
up of greenhouses gases is associated with the inexorable process
of "global warming". The other view highlights the
possibility that present climate changes may result in a
"shut-down" of oceanic thermohaline circulation in the
North Atlantic leading to atmospheric cooling. In this paper we
discuss different proxy records of North Atlantic climate change
and discuss the complex ocean-atmosphere interactions and rapid
climate changes that have occurred during historical times. We
make use of instrumental and documentary records of past climate
changes and compare these with proxy records of climate derived
from Greenland (GISP2) ice cores. Particular attention is given
to the Na+ (sea salt) series ( an indicator of North Atlantic
storminess) as well as the oxygen isotope series (an indicator of
past Greenland air temperatures) and the deuterium excess series
( an indicator of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures).
Comparison of these records of past climate show that numerous
episodes of rapid climate change have taken place during
historical times and that some of these were associated with the
disruption of the North Atlantic ocean thermohaline conveyor.
------------
M A Younus, Bangladesh Unnayan Pradesh, R D Bedford Univ.
Waikato, New Zealand & M Morad, Kingston University:
Examination of the Patterns of Farmers 'Autonomous Adjustment' to
Major Flooding Events in Bangladesh
The Bangladeshi farming system is well adjusted to flooding.
Throughout the riverine flood plaints and coastal deltas, the
farming system is strongly influenced by flood characteristics:
timing, depth, duration and frequency (number of flood peaks).
This paper examines farmers' responses to three recent
devastating flood events with particular reference to strategies
of autonomous adjustment. Different flood events require
different kinds of adjustment which, in turn, regulate the
pattern of crop damage. If adjustments are appropriate then
farmers might expect reasonable crop production from their
seedlings. On the other hand, if the flood persists through much
of the cropping season leaving little time for crop maturation,
then farmers can lose a significant amount of production. The
paper investigates three kinds of adjustment (routine, tactical
and in-built), in two broad contexts: normal flood events and the
devastating floods of 1988, 1995 and 1998. A range of information
obtained in a household survey in Islampur is used to assess the
resilience of farmers living in a riverine flood-prone area and
their adjustment processes in the face of severe flood events.
-----------
Kieran Hickey, National University of Ireland:
The Hourly Storminess Record from Valencia Observatory Co. Kerry,
SW Ireland 1869-2000
This paper examines the unique hourly record of storms from
Valentia Observatory, SW Ireland over the period from 1869 to
2000. A brief explanation of the methodological difficulties in
assembling such records will also be presented. There have been
very significant changes in the annual and seasonal incidence of
storms over the length of the study period. These variations in
storminess are also compared to the North Atlantic Oscillation
Index. In addition a detailed analysis of the individual storms
shows that there has been significant variations in the strength
and duration of the storms as experienced at Valentia. These
storminess variations will be linked into the pattern of climate
change in NW Europe over the last 150 years and will examine
whether there is any evidence for increased storminess associated
with global warming occurring.
----------
Howard Oliver, University of Oxford:
Dissenting Climatology
During the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries those
not of the Anglican persuasion were generally barred from
advanced education. These "dissenters" ran their own
schools, places of higher education - the dissenting academies -
and founded philosophical societies which were open to all.
Notable among these groups were the Quakers, who considered some
aspects of life, such as the natural environment and its
workings, the most appropriate for learning and work. For this
reason Quakers included climatology in their range of favoured
studies, contributing significantly to advances in the subject.
The philosophical societies were places where discourses on
climatological topics often took place. Notable among such
Quakers were Luke Howard in London and John Dalton in Manchester
and the Lakes. Their seminal contributions to climatology,
especially those of Dalton and his colleagues whose work has
often been under-appreciated, will be described.
---------
Glenn McGregor, University of Birmingham:
Cultural Climatology - The Way Forward
The summons to cultural climatology should not be misconstrued as
a call for climatologits to abandon the research mainstays of
synoptic, dynamic and physical climatology. On the contrary we
expect and encourage geographer climatologists to continue to be
concerned with issues such as global climate system change,
establishing what the principal drivers of the climate system
are, assessing how the climate system will respond to natural and
human induced changes, answering how society might respond to the
opportunities and threats posed by climate change, and evaluating
to what extent the changes expected in the climate system can be
predicted. This call to cultural climatology should be seen more
as a signal to climatologists that opportunities await us at the
interface between science and society, an area which physical
geographers on the whole have felt great apprehension with.
Cultural climatology is just the ticket for catching the climate
and society boat of opportunity. A passage on this boat will
bring us closer to understanding the physical and societal
mechanisms underlying the complex interactions between components
of the climate - human system. We therefore invite all students
and purveyors of climatology courses to look beyond the learning
and teaching of straight climate processes by considering the
multitude of ways in which climate and society may interact. Such
a broadening of our horizons into the realms of cultural
climatology, will not only provide us with learning and research
opportunities but, provide society with a better understanding of
the meaning of climate.
============
(8) BUBBLES PROMPT CLIMATE-CHANGE RETHINK
>From Nature, 14 March 2003
http://www.nature.com/nsu/030310/030310-12.html
TOM CLARKE
Carbon dioxide certainly warms our planet, but it might not turn
on the heat, reveals a new analysis of ancient Antarctic ice.
"Our data suggest that the warming came first, then carbon
dioxide increased," says Jean Jouzel of the Pierre-Simon
Laplace Institute in Gif-sur-Yvette, France1. Something else -
probably extraterrestrial - got the warming going, his team
concludes.
Aside from water vapour, carbon dioxide is the major warming
influence on our planet. But it's hard to work out which comes
first: a rise in carbon dioxide levels or a slight warming. Why?
Because even a slight temperature hike increases atmospheric
carbon dioxide, through its effects on forests and oceans.
Pioneering a new technique, Jouzel's team has probed air bubbles
trapped in 240,000- year-old ice laid down as snow when the Earth
was warming up at the end of a massive ice age.
They compared the ratio of two forms of the atmospheric gas argon
in the bubbles, and looked at their carbon dioxide content. The
argon ratio changes relative to the temperature of the air at the
time it was trapped, the team argues.
They saw a temperature rise, followed by greater warming caused
by rising carbon dioxide levels, that tallied well with evidence
from the surrounding ice and other climate records. "We were
surprised to find that these indicators agreed," says
Jouzel.
Other researchers are also surprised. Other ice records had
already pointed to warming as a trigger for further warming.
However, vagaries in the rate at which ice is deposited in
different parts of the Antarctic makes firm conclusions about the
actual age of bubbles difficult to draw, says glaciologist Martin
Siegert of the University of Bristol, UK.
"Making sense of individual ice records is hard enough, let
alone getting them to agree with others," he says. If they
are right, however, Jouzel's team has found good evidence for
heat, not gas, beginning the end of an ice age.
It doesn't change our understanding of today's global warming,
Siegert says - carbon dioxide levels are already increasing, so
what got it started is somewhat irrelevant.
Nor does it mean that carbon dioxide is any less important as a
greenhouse gas. Like many researchers before, Jouzel's team
argues that a subtle shift in the Earth's orbit around the Sun
triggered a minute amount of warming. "But you need carbon
dioxide to amplify the effect," Jouzel says.
It could, however, be important for the future. Climate models,
such as those used to forecast change, are based on past events,
so pinning down what went on improves their predictive power.
Jouzel's team is now checking more recent records to see what
preceded other ice ages.
References
Caillon, N. et al. Timing of atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic
temperature changes across termination III. Science, 299, 1728 -
1731, (2002). |Homepage|
© Nature News Service / Macmillan Magazines Ltd 2003
============
(9) COMPUTER MODEL SIMULATES "LAST GASP OF ICE AGE"
>From Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>
Department of Public Affairs
University of Toronto
CONTACT:
U of T Public Affairs
ph: (416) 978-6974; email: nicolle.wahl@utoronto.ca
March 13, 2003
Study explains "last gasp of ice age", says prof
Collapse of Antarctic ice sheet triggered warm interval, melted
northern glaciers
By Nicolle Wahl
The melting of an Antarctic ice sheet roughly 14,000 years ago
triggered a period of warming in Europe that marked the beginning
of the end of the Earth's last ice age, says a new study.
A paper in the March 14 issue of the journal Science suggests
that a catastrophic collapse of an Antarctic ice sheet dumped
roughly a million cubic litres per second of freshwater into the
southern oceans, changing the climate thousands of kilometres to
the north and ushering in a
dramatic climate shift known as the Bølling-Allerød warm
interval.
"The paper describes the last gasp of the ice age,"
says Jerry Mitrovica, the J. Tuzo Wilson Professor of Geophysics
at the University of Toronto and co-author of the paper.
"These are the spasms that got us from a climate where three
kilometres of ice covered Canada to today's conditions. We're
saying that what pulled us out of this -- what ended the ice age
-- was this remarkable sequence of events. It all started in the
Antarctic."
Last year, Mitrovica and co-author Professor Peter Clark of the
Oregon State University made headlines with their theory that the
sudden influx of freshwater that occurred 14,000 years ago came
from the Antarctic. Sea level changes recorded in corals and
organic material from places like Barbados and Vietnam indicated
that roughly 14,000 years ago, the world's sea level rose by an
average of 20 metres over the course of about 200 years --
roughly 100 times faster than today's rate of sea level rise.
The 2002 article countered the long-standing belief that the
melting ice came from North America. Instead, said Mitrovica, it
mostly came from the Antarctic. The profound climate
repercussions of this event, known as meltwater pulse 1A
(mwp-1A), are described in the latest paper, which is co-authored
with Clark, principal investigator Professor Andrew Weaver and
post-doctoral fellow Oleg Saenko of the University of Victoria.
The team created a computer model to simulate the effect of
mwp-1A. They found that if a massive influx of freshwater were
suddenly deposited in the southern oceans, it intensifies a
massive river of warm water called thermohaline circulation.
This conveyor belt-like water current, which is driven by
temperature and salinity, rises off Europe, sinks farther north
and turns back to the south. "It dramatically influences
climate," says Mitrovica, an associate with the Canadian
Institute for Advanced Research.
By shunting more warm water towards Europe and the north
Atlantic, he explains, the region's climate was significantly
heated, leading to the thousand-year-long Bølling-Allerød warm
interval. The model also successfully predicts the significant
cooling of the south -- known as the Antarctic Cold Reversal --
that coincided with the northern warming and that has eluded
explanation. In turn, this began to melt the Laurentide and
Fennoscandian icesheets that covered North America and
northwestern Europe, respectively.
That melting, says Mitrovica, released freshwater into the north
Atlantic, shutting down the conveyor belt and cooling the north.
"That explains a very famous climate event called the
Younger Dryas cold interval," he says, referring to a period
around 13,000 years ago
when Europe went into a deep freeze.
But despite this chillier interval, says Mitrovica, the melting
marked the beginning of the end for the massive glaciers that had
covered the Earth's continents. "Once the process of warming
the north began, the main deglaciation started and the ice age
ended," he says.
The model is able to explain the sequence of dramatic climate
changes taking place between roughly 10,000 and 20,000 years ago.
"It's like dominoes," says Mitrovica. "It pieces
together all of the major climate events of that period. By
taking the meltwater pulse from the Antarctic, everything falls
beautifully into place."
The research was funded by the Natural Sciences and Engineering
Research Council of Canada, the Killam Foundation, the National
Science Foundation and the Canadian Institute for Advanced
Research.
===========
(10) SCIENTISTS HELP EXPLAIN THE SUN'S CONNECTIONS TO EARTH
>From Paal Brekke <pbrekke@esa.nascom.nasa.gov>
After a harsh winter, many welcome the light and warmth of the
Sun, and ESA and NASA invites you to learn the many ways our Sun
affects the Earth, from beautiful Northern Lights displays to
catastrophic power outages.
Between 18-23 March 2003, scientists across USA, Europe and the
world will be meeting the public to explain the newest theories
about the way in which the Sun connects to and affects life on
Earth. Do not miss this opportunity to make a connection of your
own, find out how to participate
in the Sun-Earth days of 2003.
Read more about these initiatives here:
European release with graphics:
http://www.esa.int/export/esaCP/SEMUCQ2A6BD_index_0.html
SOHO Sun-Earth Days Web page with list off more than 40 events in
Europe
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/sunearth2003/
Regards
Paal Brekke
Coordinator for the European Sun-Earth Events.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dr. Paal Brekke,
SOHO Deputy Project Scientist (European Space Agency - ESA)
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center,
Email: pbrekke@esa.nascom.nasa.gov
Mail Code 682.3, Bld. 26, Room 001, Tel.:
1-301-286-6983 /301 996 9028 (cell)
Greenbelt, Maryland 20771, USA.
Fax:
1-301-286-0264
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOHO WEB: http://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/
PERSONAL WEB: http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/localinfo/brekke.html
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
===========
(11) SOLAR EFFECTS ON TERRESTRIAL CLIMATE
>From CO2 Science Magazine, 19 March 2003
http://www.co2science.org/subject/s/summaries/solarrecin.htm
In a study of the climatic history of Scandinavia over the past
10,000 years, Karlén (1998) compared a proxy temperature record
-- derived from analyses of changes in the sizes of glaciers,
changes in the altitudes of alpine tree-limits, and variations in
the widths of tree-rings -- with contemporaneous solar irradiance
data that were derived from 14C anomalies measured in tree-ring
records. The results of this analysis revealed both long- and
short-term temperature fluctuations; and it was noted that during
warm periods the temperature was "about 2°C warmer than at
present." Furthermore, the temperature fluctuations were
found to be "closely related" to changes in solar
radiation, so much so that Karlén concluded that "the
frequency and magnitude of changes in climate during the Holocene
do not support the opinion that the climatic change of the last
100 years is unique." In fact, he bluntly stated that
"there is no evidence of a human influence so far."
Likewise, Perry and Hsu (2000), who also investigated the
possible role of the sun on past and current Holocene climate,
concluded that the idea of "the modern temperature increase
being caused solely by an increase in CO2 concentration appears
questionable."
In focusing on these ideas, this summary reviews several recent
studies that provide strong correlative evidence for a
solar-climate link that obviates the need to invoke CO2-enhanced
radiative forcing to explain the modest global warming of the
20th century. Specifically, we examine studies dealing with a
number of phenomena that influence solar heating of the
earth-ocean-atmosphere system that may have been altered over the
course of the past century and discuss the potential effects of
these phenomena on earth's climate.
We begin with the study of Frohlich and Lean (2002), who
extrapolated a record of total solar irradiance back to the
seventeenth century. According to their analysis, "warming
since 1650 due to the solar change is close to 0.4°C, with
pre-industrial fluctuations of 0.2°C that are seen also to be
present in the temperature reconstructions."
In another study, Rigozo et al. (2002) analyzed two data sets
(tree-ring widths from Santa Catarina, Brazil and sunspot
numbers) in an attempt to determine the influence of the solar
parameter (sun spot number) on climate (tree-ring width) over the
period 1837-1996. Their analysis revealed the existence of
an 11-year cycle in the tree-ring width data that matched the
11-year sun spot cycle. When comparing both data sets via
cross-wavelet spectral analysis, the authors report that "a
good correspondence is observed," which correspondence was
strongest during the time of most intense solar activity, i.e.,
1940-1970.
A strong sun-climate correlation was also found by Vaganov et al.
(2000) for the Asian subarctic. Using tree-ring width as a
proxy for temperature, the authors discovered a significant
correlation between temperature variations and solar radiation (R
= 0.32) over the past 600 years. When examining this
relationship over the much shorter interval of the industrial
period (1800 to 1990) the correlation improved considerably (R =
0.68).
Another pertinent study is that of Pang and Yau (2002), who
assembled and analyzed a vast amount of data pertaining to
phenomena that have been reliably linked to variations in solar
activity, including frequencies of sunspot and aurora sightings,
abundance of carbon-14 in rings of long-lived trees, and amount
of beryllium-10 in annual layers of polar ice cores. Over
the past 1800 years, these authors identified "some nine
cycles of solar brightness change," including the well-known
Oort, Wolf, Sporer, Maunder and Dalton Minima. With respect to
the Maunder Minimum -- which occurred between 1645 and 1715 and
is widely acknowledged to have been responsible for some of the
coldest weather of the Little Ice Age -- they report that the
temperatures of that period "were about one-half of a degree
Celsius lower than the mean for the 1970s, consistent with the
decrease in the decadal average solar irradiance." Then,
from 1795 to 1825, came the Dalton Minimum, along with another
dip in Northern Hemispheric temperatures. Since that time,
however, the authors say "the sun has gradually
brightened" and "we are now in the Modern
Maximum," which may well be responsible for the warmth of
the Modern Warm Period.
Pang and Yau also say that although the long-term variations in
solar brightness they identified "account for less than 1%
of the total irradiance, there is clear evidence that they affect
the earth's climate." And so they do. A dual plot of total
solar irradiance and Northern Hemispheric temperature from 1620
to the present indicates that the former parameter (when
appropriately scaled, but without reference to any specific
climate-change mechanism) can account for essentially all
temperature changes up to about 1980. After that time, the IPCC
surface air temperature record rises uncharacteristically
rapidly, although the radiosonde and satellite temperature
histories largely match what would be predicted from the solar
irradiance record.
In agreement with Pang and Yau's study, Parker (1999) and Rigozo
et al. (2001) report that the number of sunspots has more than
doubled over the past century. Furthermore, Rigozo et al. say
their "1000-year reconstructed sunspot number reproduces
well the great maximums and minimums in solar activity,
identified in cosmonuclide variation records, and, specifically,
the epochs of the Oort, Wolf, Sporer, Maunder, and Dalton
Minimums, as well [as] the Medieval and Modern Maximums,"
the latter of which they describe as "starting near
1900." When quantified, for example, the mean sunspot number
for the Wolf, Sporer and Maunder Minimums is found to be
1.36. For the Oort and Dalton Minimums it is 25.05; while
for the Medieval Maximum it is 53.00, and for the Modern Maximum
it is 57.54. Compared to the average of the Wolf, Sporer and
Maunder Minimums, therefore, the mean sunspot number of the Oort
and Dalton Minimums was 18.42 times greater; while that of the
Medieval Maximum was 38.97 times greater, and that of the Modern
Maximum to the time of Rigozo et al.'s analysis was 42.31 times
greater. Corresponding strength ratios for the solar radio flux
were 1.41, 1.89 and 1.97, respectively; for the solar wind
velocity, 1.05, 1.10 and 1.11; and for the southward component of
the interplanetary magnetic field, 1.70, 2.54 and 2.67.
Lockwood et al. (1999) also examined measurements of the
near-earth interplanetary magnetic field, finding that the total
magnetic flux leaving the sun has risen by a factor of 1.41 over
the period 1964-1996. What is more, surrogate measurements of
this parameter previous to this time indicate that the total
magnet flux has risen by a factor of 2.3 since 1901. Given
these increases, Lockwood et al. state that "the variation
[in total solar magnetic flux] found here stresses the importance
of understanding the connections between the sun's output and its
magnetic field and between terrestrial global cloud cover, cosmic
ray fluxes and the heliospheric field."
One of the main criticisms of the solar-climate link on decadal
and centennial time scales is the belief that solar energy output
fluctuations are too small to cause the corresponding temperature
changes (Broecker, 1999). In response to this criticism, we again
point to the vast amount of literature in support of such an
influence in the Solar Effects section of our Subject Index, in
particular, the section on Cosmic Rays. We also refer to the
study of Tobias and Weiss (2000), who, noting that "solar
magnetic activity exhibits chaotically modulated cycles ... which
are responsible for slight variations in solar luminosity and
modulation of the solar wind," attacked the solar forcing of
climate problem by means of a model in which the solar dynamo and
earth's climate are represented by low-order systems, each of
which in isolation supports chaotic oscillations but when run
together sometimes resonate. The results of their analysis showed
that "solutions oscillate about either of two fixed points,
representing warm and cold states, flipping sporadically between
them." They also discovered that a weak nonlinear input from
the solar dynamo "has a significant effect when the 'typical
frequencies' of each system are in resonance." Based upon
these findings, the authors conclude that "the resonance
provides a powerful mechanism for amplifying climate forcing by
solar activity." Hence, there need no longer be any
reluctance to accept as fact the conclusion that the many
correlations that have been documented between solar variability
and the time histories of various climatic phenomena do indeed
have a cause that is of extraterrestrial origin.
With respect to cosmic rays, their intensity has been observed to
vary by about 15% over a solar cycle due to changes in the
strength of the solar wind, which carries a weak magnetic field
into the heliosphere that partially shields the earth from
low-energy galactic charged particles (Carslaw et al., 2002).
When this shielding is at a minimum, allowing more cosmic rays to
impinge upon the planet, more low clouds have been observed to
cover the earth (Kniveton and Todd, 2001), producing a tendency
for lower temperatures to occur. When the shielding is maximal,
on the other hand, less cosmic rays impinge upon the planet and
fewer low clouds form, which produces a tendency for the earth to
warm (Solanki et al., 2000).
So, do solar-mediated changes in cosmic ray intensities influence
climate on decadal and centennial time scales? In a provocative
plot that suggests a positive answer to this question, Carslaw et
al. depict a composite history of cosmic ray intensities derived
from four independent proxies, two of which extend all the way
back to 1700. Comparing this plot with what we believe to be the
most accurate temperature history of the Northern Hemisphere,
i.e., that derived by Esper et al. (2002), we note that for
almost all of the 18th century, cosmic ray intensity declined
modestly, while air temperature slowly rose. Then came a sharp
rise in cosmic ray intensity that was immediately followed by a
sharp drop in temperature. This change, in turn, was followed by
a sharp decline in cosmic ray intensity that was immediately
followed by a sharp upturn in temperature. Thereafter, the cosmic
ray intensity leveled off, rose slightly and then declined in
undulating fashion to the end of the record, while temperature
leveled off, dropped slightly and then rose in undulating fashion
to the end of the record, as would be expected to occur in light
of what is currently known about the cosmic ray-cloud connection.
With respect to the past century, Carslaw et al. note that the
flux of cosmic rays declined by about 15% over this period, which
is not surprising in light of the increase in solar magnetic flux
since 1901 that was reported by Lockwood et al. In addition,
Feynman and Ruzmaikin (1999) report that the flux of 300
MeV-protons at the top of the magnetosphere declined by a factor
of 5 between solar minima at the beginning of the century and
recent solar minima, and that the flux of 1 GeV-protons dropped
by a factor of 2.5. Given these findings, we wonder just how much
-- if not all -- of the reported 0.6°C global temperature rise
of the last century bears the ultimate fingerprint of the sun.
Another, and totally independent, source of variability in the
intensity of solar radiation received at the surface of the earth
is provided by aerosols (see the several sub-headings under
Aerosols and Clouds in our Subject Index). In a recent paper on
this subject, Stanhill and Cohen (2001) reviewed reports of
numerous solar radiation measurement programs from around the
world to determine if there had been any trend in this parameter
over the past half-century. The results of their investigation
revealed a 50-year reduction that "has globally averaged
0.51 ± 0.05 Wm-2 per year, equivalent to a reduction of 2.7% per
decade, and now totals 20 Wm-2." After reviewing several
possible causes of this huge decline, Stanhill and Cohen
concluded that "the most probable is that increases in man
made aerosols and other air pollutants have changed the optical
properties of the atmosphere, in particular those of
clouds."
Because of various feedbacks (both positive and negative) and
other processes (such as those related to cosmic rays) that are
active in the earth-ocean-atmosphere system, it is unclear what
effect the past half-century's 20 Wm-2 reduction in solar
radiation reception at the earth's surface has had on global
climate. One possible consequence is that it has reduced the
amount of evaporation occurring at the surface of the earth. This
is the hypothesis of Roderick and Farquhar (2002), who
demonstrated that the observed decrease in pan evaporation in
Russia over the past 50 years is both qualitatively and
quantitatively consistent with "what one would expect from
the observed large and widespread decreases in sunlight resulting
from increasing cloud coverage and aerosol concentration."
It would also help to explain the reduction in pan evaporation
that has been observed in the United States (Petersen et al.,
1995) and elsewhere over the past half-century.
All things being equal, the 20 Wm-2 decrease in surface solar
forcing observed by Stanhill and Cohen should have resulted in a
significant decrease in global near-surface air
temperature. The fact that such has not occurred and
temperatures have actually increased slightly over this 50-year
period might therefore suggest that the reported doubling of
sunspot numbers and total solar magnetic flux over the course of
the past century have offset whatever cooling impetus was
provided by the observed decline in solar radiation.
Alternatively, much, if not all, of the 20 Wm-2 of solar energy
lost to the planet's surface may have been absorbed higher in the
atmosphere by water vapor, clouds, black carbon and other
aerosols. Several authors have analyzed the ability of
these atmospheric constituents to absorb solar radiation, and
they generally conclude that their impacts have been
significantly underestimated by the atmospheric science community
(Wild, 1999; Wild and Ohmura, 1999; Hansen, 2000; Satheesh and
Ramanathan, 2000; Hansen 2002).
Clearly, there is much that remains to be learned about the
variability of the flux of solar radiation that reaches the outer
limits of the earth's magnetosphere and how it is subsequently
operated upon by the host of independent and interacting
phenomena that determine its ultimate climatic
consequences. Until we have a better understanding of these
things, it is premature to conclude -- as the IPCC has -- that
the historical increase in the air's CO2 content has been a major
determinant of climate change over the 20th century.
References
Broecker, W. 1999. Climate change prediction.
Science 283: 179.
Carslaw, K.S., Harrizon, R.G. and Kirkby, J. 2002.
Cosmic rays, clouds, and climate. Science 298: 1732-1737.
Esper, J., Cook, E.R. and Schweingruber, F.H. 2002.
Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for
reconstructing past temperature variability. Science 295:
2250-2253.
Feynman, J. and Ruzmaikin, A. 1999. Modulation of
cosmic ray precipitation related to climate. Geophysical
Research Letters 26: 2057-2060.
Frohlich, C. and Lean, J. 2002. Solar irradiance
variability and climate. Astronomische Nachrichten 323:
203-212.
Hansen, J.E. 2002. A brighter future. Climatic
Change 52: 435-440.
Hansen, J., Sato, M., Ruedy, R., Lacis, A. and Oinas, V.
2000. Global warming in the twenty-first century: An
alternative scenario. Proceedings of the National Academy
of Sciences USA 97: 9875-9880.
Karlén, W. 1998. Climate variations and the enhanced
greenhouse effect. Ambio 27: 270-274.
Kniveton, D.R. and Todd, M.C. 2001. On the
relationship of cosmic ray flux and precipitation.
Geophysical Research Letters 28: 1527-1530.
Lockwood, M., Stamper, R. and Wild, M.N. 1999. A
doubling of the Sun's coronal magnetic field during the past 100
years. Nature 399: 437-439.
Pang, K.D. and Yau, K.K. 2002. Ancient observations
link changes in sun's brightness and earth's climate. EOS,
Transactions, American Geophysical Union 83: 481, 489-490.
Parker, E.N. 1999. Sunny side of global
warming. Nature 399: 416-417.
Perry, C.A. and Hsu, K.J. 2000. Geophysical,
archaeological, and historical evidence support a solar-output
model for climate change. Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences USA 97: 12433-12438.
Peterson, T.C., Golubev, V.S. and Groisman, P. Ya.
1995. Evaporation losing its strength. Nature 377:
687-688.
Rigozo, N.R., Echer, E., Vieira, L.E.A. and Nordemann,
D.J.R. 2001. Reconstruction of Wolf sunspot numbers
on the basis of spectral characteristics and estimates of
associated radio flux and solar wind parameters for the last
millennium. Solar Physics 203: 179-191.
Rigozo, N.R., Nordemann, D.J.R., Echer, E., Zanandrea, A. and
Gonzalez, W.D. 2002. Solar variability effects
studied by tree-ring data wavelet analysis. Advances in
Space Research 29: 1985-1988.
Roderick, M.L. and Farquhar, G.D. 2002. The cause of
decreased pan evaporation over the past 50 years. Science
298: 1410-1411.
Satheesh, S.K. and Ramanathan, V. 2000. Large
differences in tropical aerosol forcing at the top of the
atmosphere and Earth's surface. Nature 405: 60-63.
Solanki, S.K., Schussler, M. and Fligge, M. 2000.
Evolution of the sun's large-scale magnetic field since the
Maunder minimum. Nature 408: 445-447.
Stanhill, G. and Cohen, S. 2001. Global dimming: a
review of the evidence for a widespread and significant reduction
in global radiation with discussion of its probable causes and
possible agricultural consequences. Agricultural and Forest
Meteorology 107: 255-278.
Tobias, S.M. and Weiss, N.O. 2000. Resonant
interactions between solar activity and climate. Journal of
Climate 13: 3745-3759.
Vaganov, E.A., Briffa, K.R., Naurzbaev, M.M., Schweingruber,
F.H., Shiyatov, S.G. and Shishov, V.V. 2000.
Long-term climatic changes in the arctic region of the Northern
Hemisphere. Doklady Earth Sciences 375: 1314-1317.
Wild, M. 1999. Discrepancies between model-calculated
and observed shortwave atmospheric absorption in areas with high
aerosol loadings. Journal of Geophysical Research 104:
27,361-27,371.
Wild, M. and Ohmura, A. 1999. The role of clouds and
the cloud-free atmosphere in the problem of underestimated
absorption of solar radiation in GCM atmospheres. Physics
and Chemistry of the Earth 24B: 261-268.
Copyright © 2003. Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide
and Global Change
============================
* LETTERS TO THE MODERATOR *
============================
(12) A "SINK" FOR CO2?
>From Joe Montani <jmontani@LPL.Arizona.EDU>
Dear Benny,
One of the more fascinating news releases I have seen on the
topic of "cleaning up" the rise in atmospheric CO2 is
the one from Los Alamos National Labs in the U.S.A. They
have studied a scheme whereby CO2 could be "fixed" by
the equivalent of giant cement plants (factories) in the desert.
One would hope that the need to burn carbon could be reduced in
the future (soon) by the development and adoption of hydrogen
technologies. But if at any point it should seem necessary
to reduce the atmospheric CO2 concentration globally, the Los
Alamos scheme may be just the technique to rely on. Care to have
a look at the LANL release, on-line?:
http://www.lanl.gov/worldview/news/releases/archive/02-028.shtml
All best wishes,
--Joe Montani / Tucson, AZ USA
=============
(13) IN DEFENCE OF GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
>From Max Wallis <WallisMK@Cardiff.ac.uk>
Both Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen [1] and I [2] have explored how
to approach Andrew Glikson's proposition: "either the
terrestrial soils, forests, hydrosphere and atmosphere are being
severely degraded, or they are not, both can not be true"
(CCNet 14.1.03). It's not an abstract brain-teaser, but crucial
for global decision-making.
It comprises several questions and some basis is needed to judge
eg. the value of forests in current ecosystems and to humankind
in particular. Sonja expresses it as "benefits to
humanity" including "the need for the management of
nature". That combination is problematic - whose need, long
or short-term management, can nature be managed? But Sonja ducks
the whole question in saying the requisite judgements are not
scientific.
As regards severe degradation of the global atmosphere, there are
no longer significant dissenters over the ozone 'hole' being so
characterised by scientists. The global community decided to save
the ozone layer by stopping release of CFCs etc., not by managing
the atmosphere.
Whether and how far forests are being degraded is still debated.
And of course scientific method needs to be enrolled in exploring
the issue. Indices are being developed to quanitify the severity
of degradation. Full agreement on these is not achievable, while
information on the extent and health of forests may be inadequate
or contested.
To most of us, this does not vitiate use of the scientific
method, even if the answer is not yet clear. Social scientists
may point out the term "severe degradation" is a social
construct, conditioned by our existing knowledge base and our
ethical framework. Judging the validity of multiple answers
depends on the interplay of scientific and cultural factors, so
the argument goes.
But what of it? There is near consensus that the tropical forest
resource is disappearing far faster than it regenerates itself.
This amounts to a factual answer to part of Andrew's proposition.
One can argue over what's being lost and whether the timescale is
10 or 30 years. But there's no need for a mythical
Garden-of-Eden reference state.
What's a separate question, is whether and how far the global
community should let the wild resource disappear and, like Sonja,
opt for forest "management". That has no purely
scientific answer, but scientists surely have much to contribute
to it, eg. through putting
the concept of biodiversity on a sounder footing.
[1] On the Benefits to Humans From Change
Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen <Sonja.B-C@hull.ac.uk>
CCNet TERRA 12/2003
- 13 March 2003
[2] Scientific Method and Cultural Relativism in the Lomborg
Argument
<WallisMK@Cardiff.ac.uk>
CCNet TERRA 7/2003 - 29 January 2003
PS. I am glad to hear (MODERATOR'S NOTE, CCNet TERRA 12/2003)
that none of Andrew Glikson's many contributions has ever been
rejected. But that's not true of my few.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Max Wallis wallismk@cf.ac.uk
Cardiff Centre for Astrobiology tel. 029 2087
6436
2 North Road
Cardiff University CF10
2DY
==============
(14) AND FINALLY: HOW COLD IS IT? IT'S SO COLD, IT'S WARMING!
>From National Post, 13 March 2003
http://www.nationalpost.com/search/site/story.asp?id=31E4ADDB-9EE1-4642-A1C2-05A248C8AD09
Terence Corcoran
A whole town is frozen solid in Newfoundland, the Great Lakes are
sheets of ice, snow is still piled up on Toronto streets, Britain
has been caught in a deep freeze, Europeans shivered through
January, thousands died in Russia from the cold, rice paddies
have turned into skating rinks in Southeast Asia, people are
dying from the cold in Bangladesh, parts of China's Yellow River
have frozen over.
What's going on? Nothing much, actually. It's just the weather.
But these days the weather, hot and cold, is a political issue,
and that means you can't let erratic weather go by without
running it through the filter of climate change.
Through a long, grim winter in Eastern Canada, the first question
raised on elevators and in coffee shops has been "Whatever
happened to global warming?" In the strip of territory that
runs from the Great Lakes along the St. Lawrence River through to
the Maritimes, below-normal temperatures have sunk spirits,
raised heating costs and caused untold extra hardship and
irritation for more than 20 million Canadians. It's miserable.
So let's check in with Environment Canada, propaganda central for
the global warming scare, to see how bad it's been. Guess what?
The cold gets hardly a mention. In fact, the first words in
Environment Canada's recent report on climate trends take the
opposite tack: "Most of Canada had above normal temperatures
this winter. As a whole, Canada experienced its 9th warmest
winter (since nationwide records began in 1948) at 2.3 degrees
Centigrade above normal."
If that doesn't coincide with the majority Canadian experience of
the past winter, that's because Environment Canada doesn't
present the weather that Canadians experience.
Who the hell cares about the average national temperature? Nobody
lives there! Nor do many Canadians live in the areas of Canada,
such as the Yukon and the far northwest, where average
temperatures were higher than normal and pulled the national
average higher.
Never mind the weather Canadians actually live through. Ottawa's
climate-change bureaucracy is more interested in convincing us
that global warming is a deadly real problem that requires
$2-billion in new federal funding to meet the senseless Kyoto
targets adopted by the Prime Minister. While two-thirds of
Canadians are freezing and dismal, Environment Canada is
monitoring and tracking the weather for wild elk. About 29,000
people were warmer than normal in the Yukon, while 20 million
were colder than normal in Eastern Canada, but Ottawa reports it
was a warmer than normal winter across Canada.
Environment Canada also has a unique, if warped, value system:
Warming is bad for us, cold is good. Last October, when the
department issued its long-range winter forecast, it warned that
a new El Niño was expected to bring milder winter to most parts
of southern Canada. And mild means bad: "This could mean
less snow and an increase in insect pests and diseases that are
normally kept in check by lengthy cold spells. Milder weather may
also have a negative effect on the winter recreation industries
in Canada, and could contribute to the melting of ice roads in
Northern Canada, restricting access to remote communities."
Environment Canada didn't quite get the Ontario, Quebec and
Maritime forecast right, which means it failed to alert us to the
looming hardship of cold, which is a lot tougher to deal with
than heat. A hotter Canada would be a more hospitable environment
for living than a Canada covered in expanding glaciers.
This winter's cold isn't just a Canadian phenomenon. Most of the
Northern Hemisphere -- Europe, Russia, Asia -- has been trapped
in cold through much of the past three months. Headline after
headline tells of killer cold.
How do global warming activists explain this politically tricky
winter weather? There are two main gambits, although nobody is
all that keen on them. The first is to dismiss the global
freeze-up as nothing unusual. The weather, after all, is
continuously changing and these bouts of extreme weather are just
a natural characteristic of the global climate. Intense
variability is normal.
The trouble with this argument is that it casts a bit of a shadow
over the global warming propaganda operation, which has been
feeding off a succession of El Niños and extreme warm weather to
dramatize the existence of global warming. Carbon and other
emissions are causing a buildup of greenhouse gases, driving
temperatures higher. But if cold extreme weather is normal, then
why shouldn't we treat unusually warm weather as also possibly
just another natural development?
The second response to colder weather is to argue that it is
actually part of the global warming crisis. Climate change
theorists have been toying with the theme for years. Now they may
have to use it.
A story in The Guardian last January explained how global warming
will bring colder winters to Britain. "The amount of ice
melting from the surface of the Greenland ice sheet broke all
known records last year, threatening a rapid rise in sea levels
and a return to very cold winters to Britain because of a slowing
down of the Gulf Stream."
So there's the global warming theory to end all climate debate.
If it gets cold, it means global warming is setting in.
© Copyright 2003 National Post
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