PLEASE NOTE:
*
CCNet, 35/2000 - 20 March 2000
------------------------------
SHERLOCK HOLMES & THE SOLAR SYSTEM
Here is Sherlock Holmes's view of the
(un)importance of the dynamics
of the Solar System, as recorded by his
patient scribe John
Watson, M. D., late of the Army Medical
Department.
[from Rolf Sinclair <rolf@santafe.edu>]
“His ignorance was as remarkable as
his knowledge. Of contemporary
literature, philosophy and politics he
appeared to know next to
nothing. Upon my quoting Thomas Carlyle,
he inquired in the
naivest way who he might be and what he
had done. My surprise
reached a climax, however, when I found
incidentally that he was
ignorant of the Copernican Theory and of
the composition of the
Solar System. That any civilized human
being in this nineteenth
century should not be aware that the
earth travelled round the sun
appeared to me to be such an
extraordinary fact that I could
hardly realize it. "You appear to
be astonished," he said, smiling
at my expression of surprise. "Now
that I do know it I shall do my
best to forget it."
"To forget it!"
"You see," he explained,
"I consider that a man's brain originally
is like a little empty attic, and you
have to stock it with such
furniture as you choose. ... It is
of the highest importance,
therefore, not to have useless facts
elbowing out the useful
ones."
"But the Solar System!" I
protested.
"What the deuce is it to me?"
he interrupted impatiently: "you say
that we go round the sun. If we went
round the moon it would not
make a pennyworth of difference to me or
to my work."
-- Arthur Conan
Doyle: A Study in Scarlet, Chapter 2,
The Science of Deduction
(1) DOD FIREBALL DETECTION
Ron Baalke <BAALKE@kelvin.jpl.nasa.gov>
(2) SUN'S HIDDEN TWIN STALKS PLANET EARTH
Peter FitzGerald-Morris <P.D.FitzGerald-Morris@isis.softnet.co.uk>
(3) GALACTIC OSCILLATIONS AS A SOURCE OF PERIODIC IMPACTS
Michael Paine <mpaine@tpgi.com.au>
(4) ACUSTIC OBSERVATIONS OF IRIDIUM RE-ENTRIES SOUGHT
Joan and David Dunham <dunham@erols.com>
(5) WHAT WAS MARS LIKE IN THE PAST?
Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>
(6) SATELLITES HELP SCIENTISTS DIG OUT TURKISH QUAKE DATA
Space.com, 17 March 2000
(7) CAR OWNERS REJOICE: THE THEORY OF UNLIMITED OIL
ABC News, 16 March 2000
(8) WOBBLY ASTEROIDS
Jeremy Tatum <UNIVERSE@uvvm.UVic.CA>
(9) WHAT WE NEED IS MONEY
Ed Grondine <epgrondine@hotmail.com>
(10) AND, FINALLY: APOCALYPTIC CULT LEADERS KILL
THEIR FOLLOWERS IN ANTICIPATION OF WORLD’S
END
BBC, Online News, 20 March 2000
==========
(1) DOD FIREBALL DETECTION
From Ron Baalke <BAALKE@kelvin.jpl.nasa.gov>
Forwarded from Peter Brown (peter@danlon.physics.uwo.ca)
Fireball Detection
On 5 December 1999, infrared sensors aboard DOD satellites
detected
the impact of a meteoroid at 10:17:58 UTC about midway between
Montgomery and Birmingham, Alabama. The object was first
detected at
about 33.1 North Latitude, 85.9 West Longitude, at an altitude of
approximately 74 km. It was traveling on a path from just east of
north to just west of south, at an angle of about 55 from the
horizontal. It was last tracked at an altitude of approximately
23km
at 33.0 North Latitude, 86.1 West Longitude.
--------------
PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS SATELLITE BOLIDE RELEASE AND ALL PREVIOUS
SUCH RELEASES CAN BE FOUND ON THE WWW AT
http://phobos.astro.uwo.ca/~pbrown/usaf.html
----
Dr. Peter Brown
Meteor Physics Lab
Department of Physics and Astronomy
University of Western Ontario
London, Ontario
N6A 3K7
Canada
Voice:1-519-661-2111 x86458
Fax:1-519-661-2033
==============
(2) SUN'S HIDDEN TWIN STALKS PLANET EARTH
From Peter FitzGerald-Morris <P.D.FitzGerald-Morris@isis.softnet.co.uk>
I expect you've seen this from today's Sunday Times.
Peter
-----------
From THE SUNDAY TIMES, 19 March 2000
Sun's hidden twin stalks planet Earth
Jonathan Leake, Science Editor
WHEN the end of the world comes, we'll know what to blame.
Scientists
have found compelling evidence that the Sun has a baby brother, a
dark
star whose eccentric orbit is responsible for periodically
showering
the Earth with comets and meteorites.
The dark star - named Nemesis by astronomers - is thought to be a
"brown dwarf" that spins round the Sun in an orbit so
large it is
measured in light years, the distance light travels in a year,
equivalent to about 6,000 billion miles.
The research suggests that, every 26m years, the star's eccentric
orbit
brings it within one light year of the solar system. There it
causes
havoc in the Oort Cloud, a huge region surrounding the solar
system
that contains billions of bits of cosmic rubble left over from
the
formation of planets.
Of the millions of rocks it throws out of orbit at each visit,
some
hurtle Earthwards - and have several times nearly wiped out life
on
Earth.
Astronomers have long wondered if the Sun has a smaller partner.
Recently, two independent groups of researchers have found
evidence of
one.
One group, led by John Matese, professor of physics at the
University
of Louisiana at Lafayette, confirms the notion that it is most
likely
to be a brown dwarf, a star that never accumulated enough mass to
ignite and which has simply sat in space smouldering for billions
of
years.
Matese studied 82 comets from the Oort Cloud and found common
elements
in the shape of their orbits that could only be explained if they
had
been influenced by the gravitational pull of an object several
times
the size of Jupiter and existing about 25,000 times farther from
the
Sun than the Earth.
Matese said: "A companion to the Sun orbiting at these
distances would
have little effect on the planets. But it would play a big role
in the
way comets 'made their way' from their birth places in the
planetary
disc out to the Oort Cloud and on how they can return to the
inner
solar system."
Further research was published last week by Richard Muller,
professor
of physics at the University of California, Berkeley, following
analyses of moon rock samples brought back to Earth by Apollo 14.
The absence of a protective atmosphere means the moon has been
subjected to intense bombardment in its 4.5 billion- year
existence.
Muller's breakthrough was to find a way to date how long ago any
particle was melted - meaning he could build up a picture of
whether
the moon gets a constant barrage or suffers spells of intense
bombardment.
He said: "The evidence clearly shows that the moon has gone
through
spells of relatively frequent impacts and others of reduced
intensity.
I believe it is likely that this is because the Oort Cloud is
being
disturbed by a massive body that is throwing comets out of stable
orbits, a small fraction of which could reach the Earth."
Muller and others believe that the dark star probably takes about
26m
years to complete an orbit around the sun.
Other scientists have already noted that mass extinctions of life
on
Earth seem to occur in a pattern with gaps equivalent to
multiples of
26m, suggesting some regular event is causing the comets to come
Earth's way.
The best-known such event was the one that wiped out the
dinosaurs 65m
years ago, but that was not the worst; the planet has suffered
several
such large mass extinctions.
Copyright 2000, The Times Newspapers Ltd.
=================
(3) GALACTIC OSCILLATIONS AS A SOURCE OF PERIODIC IMPACTS
From Michael Paine <mpaine@tpgi.com.au>
Dear Benny,
Richard Muller writes:
"The Rampino theory is not viable, since the oscillations of
the sun in
the Galaxy are quite small, and the variations in density
experienced
by the solar system are too small to affect impacts..."
I have links on this issue at
http://www1.tpgi.com.au/users/tps-seti/crater.html#shiva
in particular: http://www.sigmaxi.org/amsci/Issues/Sciobs97/Cloud.html
American Scientist article “Perturbing the Oort Cloud”
by Michael Szpir,
Jan/Feb 1997 issue.
Quote: And so the matter stood until 1995, when John Matese and
Patrick
Whitman of the University of Southwestern Louisiana and their
colleagues Mauri Valtonen of Finland and Kimmo Innanen of Canada
attempted to assess the quantitative effects of the disk tides.
Their
numerical models of Oort-cloud dynamics suggested that as the
solar
system oscillates through the galactic plane, the disk tides
modulate
the comet flux from the Oort cloud by a ratio of about 4 to 1,
with the
greatest effect in the midplane of the galaxy (Icarus 1995,
116:255).
The results brought new life to the theory by providing a
mechanism for
the 30-million-year galactic clock. Gravitational tides of the
Milky
Way may pull comets free of the Oort cloud as the solar system
oscillates in the galactic plane. It was enough to convince some
scientists that there might be something to the theory after all.
Notable among these is Gene Shoemaker of the U.S. Geological
Survey,
who at one time believed that the periodicity was a
"statistical
fluke." The work of Matese and his colleagues convinced him
that the
"impact surges are real... and that [the comet flux is]
controlled by
the fluctuating galactic tidal forces." The Matese study, he
said, "is
a landmark contribution in understanding the history of
bombardment of
the earth."
regards
Michael Paine
================
(4) ACUSTIC OBSERVATIONS OF IRIDIUM RE-ENTRIES SOUGHT
From Joan and David Dunham <dunham@erols.com>
So far, I haven't seen a schedule for the Iridium satellite
re-entries,
but I assume that it will be publicized when the re-entry
schedule
has been established.
____________________________________________________________________
Return-Path: <chuck@lunarcolony.com>
From: "Charles J. Bonner" <chuck@lunarcolony.com>
To: "'dunham@erols.com'"
<dunham@erols.com>
Subject: Electroacoustics and Iridium
Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2000 15:26:37 -0500
Dear Mr. Dunham:
The upcoming decommissioning of the Iridium satellite
constellation
provides a tremendous opportunity for the study of meteor
astronomy.
Here we have about seventy "fireballs" about to enter
the Earth's
atmosphere, and we will know exactly when and where they will
occur.
In particular, I believe that the "electroacoustic"
phenomenon requires
more study, and these satellites provide an opportunity to do
just
that.
Probably, these "fireballs" will not produce sounds
detectable to the
human ear, as they are not extremely large and they will be
moving very
slowly, compared to natural fireballs. Nevertheless, I believe
they are
worth studying.
With the proper equipment, observers can record any acoustic
signals
that might be too quiet for human hearing. More importantly,
electronic
recording equipment can detect any VLF radio waves emanating from
the
"fireball" or its "train," and all relevant
properties. Are these
signals modulated? Directional? Polarized? What is their exact
frequency range? Exactly what mechanism can convert similar
electronic
signals into audible sound in larger fireballs?
I have read very little about this electroacoustic effect
(apparently,
little information is available), but I have heard a fireball
myself
once. The official scientific explanation of the phenomenon does
not
seem to match my own experience, and therefore I am sure that
there is
much more to be learned about electroacoustics.
Specifically, I do not think that the "official"
explanation accounts
for the strongly directional nature of the sound. It seemed
to be
coming from the fireball itself (though that was obviously too
far
away), and not from the surrounding large objects (houses), nor
from
the hairs inside my ears. In my one experience with
electroacoustics, I
heard the fireball several seconds before I saw it, and the
directional
nature of the sound enabled me to pinpoint the fireball. Along
with
perhaps a dozen other "observers" (kids playing
stickball, that is), I
ran around a house expecting to see an aircraft in distress, and
saw a
moon-sized green fireball crossing the sky from northwest to
south-southeast.
Please e-mail me at chuck@lunarcolony.com
if you would like more
information on my experience or my idea. You can also read
my on-line
article on the subject at
http://www.lunarcolony.com/musing/1999/art_swoosh.htm
I am hopeful that your readers, members, and other visitors to
your Web
site might be able to get this idea into the right people's minds
and
that research into electroacoustic fireballs will actually be
done on
these satellite re-entries. Please spread the word!
Sincerely,
Chuck Bonner, Head Lunatic
http://www.lunarcolony.com/
================
(5) WHAT WAS MARS LIKE IN THE PAST?
From Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>
State University of New York-Buffalo
Buffalo, New York
Contact: Ellen Goldbaum, goldbaum@buffalo.edu
Phone: 716-645-5000 ext 1415
Fax: 716-645-3765
Wednesday, March 15, 2000
UB Geologist's Study Of Volcanoes On Earth May Help Determine If
There
Ever Was Life On Mars
HOUSTON -- Was there ever life on Mars? That question may one day
be
answered in part by research now being conducted by a University
at
Buffalo geologist who studies volcanoes on earth.
In a presentation here on March 17 at the 31st Annual Lunar and
Planetary Science Conference, Tracy Gregg, Ph.D., assistant
professor
of geology in the UB College of Arts and Sciences, will discuss
how her
studies of volcanoes in specific locations on Earth may be able
to help
researchers learn about Martian volcanoes, and in turn, reveal
the
answers to mysteries surrounding the Martian climate of the past.
In particular, researchers will be looking for evidence of the
past
presence on Mars of water, the solitary ingredient that is most
vital
for proving the existence of past life on the planet.
"The underlying drive for this research is certainly to one
day find out
enough about what the Martian environment was like in the past in
order to discern if it could have, in fact, sustained life,"
said Gregg.
According to the UB geologist, that issue is controversial: Some
scientists believe that the clues available now support evidence
of Mars
having been able to sustain life of some sort in the past, while
others
say that the available data refute that.
For her part, Gregg believes that much more work needs to be
done.
"Our research is one way of attacking the question of what
Mars was
like in the past," said Gregg, who did the work with
colleague Michael
F. Sheridan, Ph.D., UB professor of geology.
In her presentation, "Volcanoes as Meteorologists: Using
Volcanic
Morphology to Constrain Paleoenvironments on Earth and
Mars,"
Gregg will report on what she and Sheridan have learned from
studying
the lava flow that filled Iceland's Skaelinger valley in 1783,
the 1801
Kualelea Flow from Mauna Loa in Hawaii and explosion craters of
the
Pinacate volcanic field in Mexico.
On earth, Gregg explained, features of volcanoes whose last-known
eruptions occurred hundreds, even thousands of years ago, have
been
used to pinpoint the locations of bodies of water, such as
glaciers,
rivers and lakes, which were displaced or destroyed by dramatic
changes in climate, such as the advance and retreat of ice ages.
These
studies, which usually involve extensive fieldwork, laboratory
analysis
of samples and analysis of satellite data, also can tell
researchers
about the direction and distinguishing characteristics of these
lava
flows.
For example, at Iceland's Askja Caldera volcano, which has been
active
during the past 5,000 years, there is a small crater lake that
was
created by a 1834 lava flow. That lava flow, which still is
visible,
dramatically changes character from rough and spiny to smooth,
several meters above the lake's present shoreline.
"That change tells us that the lake had much more water in
it when the
lava flowed into it," said Gregg, a piece of evidence that
may point to a
warmer climate.
She noted that this is exactly the kind of data that could be
observed
on Mars using a lander or rover equipped with cameras that can
"see"
these kinds of changes in lava flows and recognize key features
of
volcanic craters.
That kind of information helps scientists reconstruct past
environments,
a process that Gregg and Sheridan hope can be easily translated
to
Mars.
"We are using volcanic features to tell us what the
environment was
like when these volcanoes erupted," she said.
Similarly, the UB researchers say that high-resolution images of
Martian volcanoes made by the Mars Observer Camera, which has
been
returning useful data from the Mars Global Surveyor Mission since
1998, together with the ability of landers and rovers to identify
certain
geologic features, will begin to address these issues for the red
planet.
They also will be using data collected by the Mars Orbiter Laser
Altimeter to review the topography of Martian features to compare
with similar ones on earth.
=============
(6) SATELLITES HELP SCIENTISTS DIG OUT TURKISH QUAKE DATA
From Space.com, 17 March 2000
http://www.space.com/science/planetearth/earthquake_spot_000310.html
By Frederic Castel
TOULOUSE, France - European scientists are gaining a better
understanding via Earth-observing satellites of last year's
devastating earthquake in Turkey, which killed more than 20,000
people.
"Satellite images are essential for the study of earth
tremors of
such magnitude because they enable the region to be observed at a
larger scale," said Bertrand Meyer, a researcher on the in
Paris-based Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPGP) team.
Such big pictures can't save lives or bring back Turkey's quake
victims, but they are essential to understanding the physics of
this dangerous region and evaluating its seismic risk, he said.
For instance, what caused the ocean to submerge an entire section
of the coastal town of Golcuk within seconds of the quake?
Understanding answers to that and other questions could help
engineers design and build homes and offices that are less deadly
during temblors.
FULL STORY at:
http://www.space.com/science/planetearth/earthquake_spot_000310.html
=============
(7) CAR OWNERS REJOICE: THE THEORY OF UNLIMITED OIL
From ABC News, 16 March 2000
http://more.abcnews.go.com/onair/closerlook/wnt_000316_cl_oilheretic_feature.html
One Heretic Predicts More Oil to Be Drilled in the Ground
By Kevin Newman
March 16 — Vienna-born astrophysicist and cosmologist Dr.
Thomas Gold
looks at things in new ways. His academic pedigree is stellar:
Harvard,
Cambridge, Cornell. He founded, and for many years, directed the
Cornell Center for Radiophysics and Space Research. But Thomas
Gold is
usually a little "out there" and is most known as a
heretic.
In 1959, he predicted the moon was covered in dust when everyone
else
said lava. The treads of Apollo astronauts proved his theory. In
1967,
Gold was the first to suggest that energy pulsating in the
distant
universe was the signature of a collapsing star when others
scoffed.
He also predicted in 1992 that Martian rock might contain
fossilized
microbes. Four years later, NASA confirmed.
Predicting Oil in the Ground
In time, Gold is usually proved right more than wrong — and
it bugs
other scientists. "I don’t enjoy my role as
heretic," says Gold.
"It’s annoying."
Gold’s latest theory challenges the belief that oil and gas
come from
the fossilized remains of dinosaurs and plants. He doubts that
because
as we’ve sent space probes to nearby planets and meteorites,
we’ve
detected a lot of hydrocarbons and methane, which is the same
thing as oil and natural gas. We know there were never any
dinosaurs on
Saturn’s moon Titan, so why is oil and gas there?
Gold believes they formed in planets after the Big Bang that
created
the universe. And if it so plentiful out there, then why not
here?
"I believe an enormous quantity of oil and gas exists within
hundreds
and 200 miles in the earth," says Gold. "But the
drilling we do is only
4 or 5 miles, but it seeps up."
FULL STORY at:
http://more.abcnews.go.com/onair/closerlook/wnt_000316_cl_oilheretic_feature.html
=============================
* LETTERS TO THE MODERATOR *
=============================
(8) WOBBLY ASTEROIDS
From Jeremy Tatum <UNIVERSE@uvvm.UVic.CA>
The item on wobbly asteroids and comets came at a perfect time
for my
Classical Mechanics course - we are covering that right
now. But I
think I am right in saying that the asteroid will also not
dissipate
energy if it is rotating about its axis of minimum rotational
inertia,
which is a stable state. Of course, if the instantaneous
axis of
rotation strays *appreciably* from a principal axis, then
stresses are
set up, and, if the body is nonrigid, energy will be dissipated
as heat
and the body will end up in its lowest kinetic energy state (for
a
given constant angular momentum), namely it spins about its axis
of
greatest rotational inertia. However, I did admit to my
class that I
didn't know how to calculate the relaxation time for this to
happen,
so, if the authors of the paper happen to see this and would like
to
send me a reprint, I would very much appreciate it (and I hope my
class
will, too).
Jeremy Tatum
===================
(9) WHAT WE NEED IS MONEY
From Ed Grondine <epgrondine@hotmail.com>
Bob mentioned that my list of observations is a little too loose
for his standards, and in this I am in agreement: in fact, the
list is a little too loose for my own standards. What is it going
to take to firm the list up? MONEY.
As Bob points out, it is very risky to associate handed down lore
or observation with an impact event in general, because the
traditions of various cultures can easily color their
interpretation of cause and effect. The only thing handed down
lore or observations can do is to provide pointers to areas where
detailed archaeological and geological surveys need to be made.
These surveys require MONEY.
It is widely believed by the general public that
archaeologists,
anthropologists, classicists, and linguists all work for
free.
This is not true. For example, to establish a text for one of
Bob's most intriguing references, "The Syballine
Oracles", would
take a skilled classicist on the order of 3 to 5 years. To basic
salary, add in travel costs, reproduction costs, data handling
costs, publication costs, etc... You come up with a sizable
amount of MONEY.
Multiply this sum by a similar amount for each textual
work. Add
in costs for field expeditions by geologists, and excavations by
archaeologists. You then arrive at an even larger amount of
MONEY.
I disagree with Bob's conclusion that, "The problem seems to
be
that various perceived authorities are fixated on quantifying the
likelihood of such an event so politically powerful bean-counters
can derive some form of cost-benefit analysis." The problem
is
raising enough MONEY to be able to use professionals to quantify
the threat.
Initial surveys punted together by gentleman scholars out of
their
own pockets can only go so far. These surveys, done privately by
individuals, have provided a valuable service in indicating to
the
different governments that they may be well advised to spend some
MONEY on the problem. If the costs of the literature searches and
field surveys are split among the govnernments, then each
government should be able to very easily manage the amount of
MONEY required of it.
Another problem is that to further quantify the hazard,
exhaustive
crater counts for both the Moon and Mars are sorely needed, as is
the development of software capable of performing these
counts.
The problem here seems to be the disinclination of some
entrenched
space reasearchers to give up part of their MONEY to do this
work.
In this regard I mention in particular some of what I call
"Mars
enthusiasts" here in the US, who somewhat immaturely wish
the US
government to spend MONEY on their realizing their Mars fantasies
rather than on saving lives.
Like Bob, I favor more open discussion of the use of nuclear
charges as well as the different militaries' involvements in a
planetary defense system, and I concur with his call for a
monitoring AND defense system. But whatever their views on a
defense system, I think that everyone here will at least agree
that at a minimum, even a few hours or days of warning would be
enough to enable people to seek shelter or evacuate coastal
areas,
and thus that even a simple warning system could save hundreds of
thousands to millions of lives. The cost per live saved, as
indicated by the historical record as it is known so far, would
be
a very, very small amount of MONEY.
Trying not to be too grouchy,
EP
PS - Having just had my investment in Iridium wiped out by some
overly anxious creditors, I doubt if I shall have MONEY to invest
in Jim Benson's Space Development corporation's asteroid
development schemes.
=================
(10) AND, FINALLY: APOCALYPTIC CULT LEADERS KILL
THEIR FOLLOWERS IN ANTICIPATION OF WORLD’S
END
From BBC, News Online, 20 March 2000
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/africa/newsid_683000/683273.stm
Uganda cult suicide (sic!) toll rises
[...] Police officials say it is clear the number of victims
could be higher
than previously thought. A tangle of charred bodies remained in
the
makeshift church on Sunday, 48 hours after members of the
Restoration
of the Ten Commandments of God cult church set themselves (sic!)
ablaze.
Initial reports said around 235 men, women and children died in
the
small trading centre of Kanungu, about 320km (200 miles),
southwest of
the Ugandan capital, Kampala. This figure was based on the number
of
people who had registered as members of the movement.
But correspondents say police have discovered a full list of the
cult's
members and, although they are not revealing the figure, say it
could
be much more than previously thought. Some reports have put the
death
toll at 470. [...]
One report said the group's leader, Joseph Kibweteere, told his
followers to sell their possessions and prepare to go to heaven.
[...]
There have also been reports that other leaders of the cult
included
two former Roman Catholic priests. Correspondents say evidence of
its
Roman Catholic roots lay scattered around the cult's compound.
Three
statues of Jesus stood in the leader's abandoned offices, while a
large
crucifix had been laid carefully on green cloth draped across a
chair.
End of the world
The community was involved in farming but villagers later
destroyed its
food supply, fearing that it might be poisoned. It has been
reported
the movement had been preparing for the end of the world this
year.
Last year, one of cult's members, Emmanuel Twinomujuni, told the
state-owned New Vision newspaper that "there was no time to
waste".
"Some of our leaders talk directly to God," he said.
"Any minute from
now, when the end comes, every believer who will be at an as yet
undisclosed spot will be saved."
FULL TRAGEDY at:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/africa/newsid_683000/683273.stm
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