PLEASE NOTE:
*
CCNet CLIMATE SCARES & CLIMATE CHANGE, 21 March 2002
----------------------------------------------------
"Researchers and scientists who study the Antarctic
Peninsula
cautioned that there was little evidence to directly link the ice
shelf collapse to the effects of global warming."
--Eric Pianin, The Washington Post, 20 March 2002
"Although climate model predictions do indicate an enhanced
response
to future global warming in some parts of the polar regions, the
Antarctic Peninsula is not one of these areas. The lack of a
clear
modelled association between Peninsula warming and global warming
means that it is premature to attribute warming in the Peninsula
to an
enhanced "greenhouse" effect."
--British Antartic Survey, November 2001
"There is reason for optimism, if not here then in the next
world.
Milloy notes that in his Inferno, Dante "placed the
diviners,
astrologers, magicians, sowers of scandal and discord,
alchemists, and
liars in the eighth and next-to-most damned level of
hell." Now that's a
health risk the junk scientists should worry about."
--James K. Glassman's book review of "Junk Science
Judo"
(1) ANTARCTIC ICE SHELF COLLAPSES INTO SEA: SCIENTISTS SPLIT ON
GLOBAL
WARMING ROLE
The Washington Post, 20 March 2002
(2) ANTARCTIC ICE SHELF COLLAPSES IN LARGEST EVENT OF LAST 30
YEARS
Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>
(3) ICE HYSTERIA
John Daly, 20 March 2002
(4) STUNNED SCIENTISTS
Smater Times, 20 March 2002
(5) ANTARCTIC CLIMATE CHANGE
British Antartic Survey, November 2001
(7) SCIENTISTS PREDICT CALMER [SPACE] WEATHER AHEAD
Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>
(8) EL NINO FORECAST REVISITED
Theodor Landscheidt
(9) THE MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD AND LITTLE ICE AGE IN THE EASTERN
MEDITERRANEAN
CO2 Science Magazine, 20 March 2002
(10) IS IT WARMER NOW THAN DURING THE MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD?
Timo Niroma <timo.niroma@tilmari.pp.fi>
(11) POPULATION BOMB MYTH IMPLODES AS POPULATION ESTIMATES FALL
The New York Times, 10 March 2002
(12) AND FINALLY: 'DISTURBING STATISTICS'
Tech Central Station, 20 March 2002
=====================
(1) ANTARCTIC ICE SHELF COLLAPSES INTO SEA: SCIENTISTS SPLIT ON
GLOBAL
WARMING ROLE
>From The Washington Post, 20 March 2002
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A53178-2002Mar19.html
By Eric Pianin
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, March 20, 2002; Page A03
An Antarctic ice shelf the size of Rhode Island recently
shattered and
collapsed into the sea after an unusual warming period, stunning
some
scientists who said they had never seen such a large loss of ice
mass in the
remote Antarctic Peninsula.
The disintegration of the ice shelf -- 1,260 square miles in area
and 650
feet thick -- was most alarming to some because of the
extraordinary
rapidity of the collapse. The shelf is believed to have existed
for as long
as 12,000 years before regional temperatures began to rise, yet
it
disintegrated literally before scientists' eyes over a 35-day
period that
began Jan. 31.
"We knew that it would collapse eventually, but the speed of
it is
staggering," said David Vaughan, a glaciologist with the
British Antarctic
Survey, which announced the event yesterday in London and
released vivid
video images of the breakup.
Researchers and scientists who study the Antarctic Peninsula
cautioned that
there was little evidence to directly link the ice shelf collapse
to the
effects of global warming, which is induced by carbon dioxide and
other
man-made "greenhouse" gases. Rather, they are blaming a
localized warming
period that allowed melt water to seep into cracks and trigger
massive
fracturing of the ice when temperatures dropped.
"What we see is climate warming regionally," said Ted
Scambos, a researcher
with the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of
Colorado in
Boulder. "Ice shelves that have been there for centuries,
maybe thousands of
years, are responding to climate they haven't seen in the past.
Very quickly
they shatter."
But some scientists, including Princeton University geoscience
professor
Michael Oppenheimer, believe that more sophisticated and
localized global
warming models eventually will show a direct relationship between
Earth's
rising temperatures and the vanishing ice shelves.
"Ascribing a temperature trend in a small region like that
to the broader
global trend is difficult," said Oppenheimer, one of the
hundreds of
scientists who helped research a seminal United Nations-sponsored
report on
global warming. "Nevertheless, the collapse of the ice shelf
in my opinion
can be partially ascribed to human-induced climate change."
Experts said the loss of the ice shelf will not result in a rise
in sea
level because the ice was already floating. One of the most
significant
predicted results of global warming is a rise in sea level as ice
on land
melts.
Ice shelves are thick plates, fed by glaciers, that float in the
ocean
around much of Antarctica. In recent months, with the polar
summer just
beginning, temperatures were already creeping above freezing in
the
peninsula region. Scientists said there has also been a 50-year
warming
trend in the peninsula, averaging approximately 0.5 degrees
Celsius per
decade, which is considered a sensitive, early indicator of
global climate
change.
But the overall climate picture in the peninsula, nearest to
southern
Argentina and Chile, is complicated and hard to generalize.
Glaciers
elsewhere on the continent are both thickening and thinning as
temperatures
show conflicting climate trends. In January, for example,
researcher Peter
Doran said scientists working in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of
eastern
Antarctica have found temperatures dropping since 1986.
The Larsen B ice shelf, as it was called, located on the eastern
side of the
peninsula, collapsed into a plume of small icebergs and
fragments. The
amount of ice released in a month's time was enough to fill 29
trillion
five-pound bags. The collapse was first detected on satellite
images this
month by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. A British
research vessel,
the RRS James Clark Ross, was in the area just as the event was
occurring
and provided vivid images of the vanishing ice from the ocean's
surface.
It was the largest single event in a series of retreats by ice
shelves in
the peninsula over the past three decades. "We're all simply
astounded by
the uniqueness of the event," said Christina Hulbe, a
geology professor at
Portland State University in Oregon who collaborated on research
into
Antarctica's breaking ice.
Some environmental groups seized on the breakup to renew their
plea to
President Bush to take more aggressive action to reduce emissions
that
contribute to global warming. Bush has disavowed the Kyoto global
warming
treaty concluded last November by Japan, European countries and
Russia,
which would force deep cuts in carbon dioxide emissions. Instead
he recently
announced proposals to encourage industry to reduce emissions
voluntarily.
"This stunning development warns of the dangers of
governments doing too
little to halt global warming," said Lara Hansen, a climate
scientist for
the World Wildlife Fund. "The visibility and sheer scale of
what is
happening in Antarctica should provide a wake-up call to
policymakers
worldwide."
© 2002 The Washington Post Company
============
(2) ANTARCTIC ICE SHELF COLLAPSES IN LARGEST EVENT OF LAST 30
YEARS
>From Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>
Office of News Services
University of Colorado-Boulder
3100 Marine Street, 5th Floor
584 UCB
Boulder, Colorado 80309-0584
(303) 492-6431
CONTACT:
Ted Scambos, (303) 492-1113
Mark Fahnestock, (301) 405-5384
Christina Hulbe, (503) 725-3388
Annette Varani, (303) 492-5952
Jim Scott, (303) 492-3114
March 18, 2002
ANTARCTIC ICE SHELF COLLAPSES IN LARGEST EVENT OF LAST 30 YEARS
Recent satellite imagery analyzed at the National Snow and Ice
Data Center
at the University of Colorado at Boulder has revealed that the
northern
section of the Larsen B ice shelf, a large floating ice mass on
the eastern
side of the Antarctic Peninsula, has shattered and separated from
the
continent in the largest single event in a 30-year series of ice
shelf
retreats in the peninsula.
"This breakup gave us the information we need to reassess
the stability of
ice shelves around the rest of the Antarctic continent,"
said glaciologist
Ted Scambos. "They are closer to the limit than we
thought."
The shattered ice has formed a plume of thousands of icebergs
adrift in the
Weddell Sea, east of the Antarctic Peninsula. A total of about
3,250 square
kilometers or 1,250 square miles, of shelf area has disintegrated
in a
35-day period beginning on Jan. 31 of this year.
Over the last five years, the Larsen B shelf has lost a total of
5,700
square kilometers -- 2,200 square miles -- and is now about 40
percent the
size of its previous minimum stable extent.
Scientists worldwide have monitored the Larsen B shelf since
November 2001,
when a researcher at the Instituto Antártico Argentino warned
the community
of an impending breakup in the wake of warm spring temperatures
and a
dramatic 20 percent increase in the ice shelf's flow rate.
International cooperation between Argentinian, American, British,
Austrian
and German scientists has resulted in detailed information on the
breakup
from field observations, shipboard studies and a variety of
satellite
sensors.
Scientists attribute the retreats to strong regional climate
warming.
Antarctic temperatures have increased about 2.5 degrees Celsius
since the
late 1940s. Since 1974 ice shelf extent in the Antarctic
Peninsula has
declined by about 13,500 square kilometers, or 5,200 square
miles.
Scambos and colleagues Mark Fahnestock at the University of
Maryland and
Christine Hulbe of Portland State University have theorized that
once melt
water appears on the surface, the rate of ice disintegration
increases. They
say melt water ponding on the surface in late summer magnifies
fracturing by
filling smaller cracks. From there, Scambos said, the weight of
the water
drives the cracks through the ice, making it shatter.
"The next shelf to the south, the Larsen C, is very near its
stability
limit, and may start to recede in coming decades if the warming
trend
continues," he said. "More importantly, regions of the
giant "Ross Ice Shelf
are just a few degrees Celsius away from being overtaken by the
same
processes that have destroyed the Larsen."
Ice shelves are thick plates of ice, fed by glaciers, that float
on the
ocean around much of Antarctica. The Larsen B was about 220
meters thick.
Based on studies of shelf ice flow and sediment thickness beneath
the ice
shelf, the Larsen B is thought to have existed for at least 400
years prior
to current events.
The breakup of peninsular ice shelves has little direct
consequence for
sea-level rise. However the shelves act as buttresses, or braking
systems,
for glaciers on the continent.
"Loss of ice shelves surrounding the Antarctic continent
could have a major
effect on the rate of ice flow off the continent," Scambos
said. "The Ross
ice shelf for instance, is the main outlet for the West Antarctic
Ice Sheet,
which encompasses several large glaciers and contains the
equivalent of 5
meters of sea level in its perched ice."
For more information and graphics on this event and Antarctic ice
shelves,
see:
http://nsidc.org/iceshelves/index.html
====
(3) ICE HYSTERIA
>From John-Daly.com, 20 March 2002
http://www.john-daly.com
[In the past couple of days], the panic mongers were in full cry,
from CNN
to the Australian Broadcasting Corp (ABC). An ice shelf, `Larsen
B', on the
eastern side of the Antarctic Peninsula has broken up into a
mosaic of
smaller icebergs.
The ABC incorrectly claimed the Antarctic had warmed 2°C during
the last
century. Wrong! Only the 2% of the Antarctic poking out into the
Southern
Ocean warmed (the part where this ice shelf is located). The
other 98% has
actually been cooling and accumulating ice. Then the ABC claimed
that
`scientists' blamed it all on `global warming' - and then gave a
filmed
comment by one just to prove their point - the British
Environment Minister!
So environmental politicians are now regarded as `scientists'?
The West Australian newspaper 20th March (p.5) claimed -
"The scientists
were reported as being "astounded at the speed of the break
up" . "It is
hard to believe that 500 million billion tonnes of ice sheet has
disintegrated in less than a month" the scientists are
quoted as saying."
Which `scientists'? As with the ABC, we don't know. But a
floating ice
shelf is like the crust of the earth floating on the earth's
plastic mantle.
Stresses build up, cracks open, and all of a sudden out of the
blue -
earthquake! When the quake happens, it is sudden and
catastrophic. No
`scientist' should find it `hard to believe' that an ice shelf
would behave
any differently given the similar dynamics involved.
The Larsen break-up has been coming for years, and its demise has
long been
expected. An `ice shelf' is simply a glacier which reaches
down all the way
to the coast and then spills out over the sea, pushing it's way
further and
further from land, floating on the sea, until tidal forces, water
erosion
from beneath, and sunlight from above, finally weaken the
floating mass and
breaks it off. It's dramatic, happens on a grand scale, but
also very,
very, natural.
It happens all the time.
This one is bigger than most, that's all. But that does not stop
the media
circus from attaching this event to `global warming', even though
the
British Antarctic Survey says it is premature to attribute
warming in the
Peninsula to an enhanced greenhouse effect.
According to this BBC report, "As far as global implications
are concerned,
there are few as far as the present event is concerned."
Which is about
right, as there will be no sea level rise resulting from the
break-up of
this ice shelf because the ice was displacing its own weight
anyway as it
was floating on the sea. Since the warming of the Peninsula is a
purely
local anomaly, it too has no global significance beyond the
immediate
effect this may have on the local environment. Yahoo News in a
story titled
`Cool and Warm' also took a more balanced view of the event.
The Peninsula is only a tiny part of the whole Antarctic (part of
it is not
even within the Antarctic Circle), and recent studies show that
the great
mass of the Antarctic is both cooler and amassing, not losing,
ice. All ice
shelves which project themselves out into open water must break
up
eventually, simply due to contact with the warmer water and the
tidal
stresses. It's evolution.
Or perhaps the greenhouse industry has forgotten about evolution,
not just
of living things, but of the whole earth. Where did they get this
idea that
natural evolution events must now stop and all new events be
blamed on
mankind's activities?
===============
(4) STUNNED SCIENTISTS
>From Smater Times, 20 March 2002
http://www.smartertimes.com/archive/2002/03/020320.html
The top of the front page of today's New York Times carries four
photographs
of an Antarctic ice shelf that appears to have broken up.
"The speed of the
breakup stunned scientists," the Times reports on its front
page. Inside,
the Times has a news article that reports, "researchers said
this was the
first time in thousands of years that this part of Antarctica --
the east
coast of its arm-shaped peninsula -- had seen so much ice erode
and
temperatures rise so much."
The Times reports that "many experts said it was getting
harder to find any
other explanation" of the ice-shelf breakup other than the
buildup of
greenhouse gas emissions "that scientists believe are
warming the planet."
Well, just to put the matter in context, have a look at John
Muir's 1879
essay "The Discovery of Glacier Bay."
Muir writes: "Glacier Bay is undoubtedly young as yet.
Vancouver's chart,
made only a century ago, shows no trace of it, though found
admirably
faithful in general. It seems probable, therefore, that even then
the entire
bay was occupied by a glacier of which all those described above,
great
through they are, were only tributaries. Nearly as great a change
has taken
place in Sum Dum Bay since Vancouver's visit, the main trunk
glacier there
having receded from eighteen to 25 miles from the line marked on
his chart.
Charley, who was here when a boy, said that the place had so
changed that he
hardly recognized it, so many new islands had been born in the
meantime and
so much ice had vanished. As we have seen, this Icy Bay is being
still
farther extended by the recession of the glaciers. That this
whole system of
fiords and channels was added to the domain of the sea by glacial
action is
to my mind certain."
Maybe it was greenhouse gas emissions back in 1879 that caused
the creation
of Glacier Bay in Alaska. After all, the antipollution rules were
a lot less
strict then than they are now. And maybe the developments in
Antarctica are
indeed unprecedented and worthy of top-of-the-front-page
treatment by the
New York Times. It certainly has been a warm winter here in New
York. But a
bit more skepticism and historical perspective is probably in
order here.
Copyright 2002, Smarter Times
=============
(5) ANTARCTIC CLIMATE CHANGE
>From British Antartic Survey, November 2001
http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/Key_Topics/Climate_Change/Climate_Change_Position.html
Is a changing Antarctic climate signposting more ominous changes
to come
elsewhere? Like the ozone hole is it giving humanity early
warning that more
precipitous changes are to come? Or do the observations of ice
retreat and
warming temperatures lie within expected bounds in a highly
variable
climatic regime? These are the questions that spur on the
meteorologists,
glaciologists and atmospheric physicists who study the Antarctic
environment. They summarise here their current views on these
important
issues. This statement, first issued in October 1999 , was last
updated in
November 2001 .
The polar regions are an important part of the Earth's climate
system and
can exert strong controls on how global climate may change as a
result of
the accumulation of "greenhouse" gases in the
atmosphere. The presence of
ice, particularly sea ice, makes the climate of the polar regions
particularly sensitive to warming by introducing a strong
"feedback"
mechanism into the climate system. Warming of Antarctica is of
concern
because the continental Antarctic ice sheets contain vast
reserves of water
and increased melting of this ice in a warmer climate could
contribute to
global sea level rise.
Global climate model predictions of how the Antarctic climate may
change
over the next 100 years differ in detail from model to model.
Most models,
however, indicate relatively modest temperature rises around
Antarctica over
the next 50 years and, over this time period, increased snowfall
over the
continent should more than compensate for increased melting of
Antarctic ice
and will thus partially offset the rise in sea level resulting
from thermal
expansion of the oceans and melting of icecaps and glaciers
elsewhere in the
world. However, many processes occurring in the polar regions are
not well
represented in climate models at present and further research is
needed to
improve our confidence in these predictions. This is particularly
true for
predictions beyond 50 years, when Antarctica may start to warm
enough to
have a significant impact on the ice sheets.
Few Antarctic stations have climate records extending back longer
than 40
years so it is difficult to say whether temperature changes in
Antarctica
reflect those in the global record, which shows an overall
warming trend of
about 0.5°C between the late nineteenth century and the present.
Antarctic
temperature records are characterised by a very high level of
interannual
variability that makes the determination of trends from short
records
problematical. Over much of Antarctica, warming trends are very
small and
there has even been a small cooling in recent years at the South
Pole. The
extent of winter sea ice around Antarctica is thought to be a
very sensitive
indicator of climatic change but it has only been possible to
observe this
since suitable instruments were deployed on satellites in the
early 1970s.
Like the temperature records, the sea ice record exhibits a great
deal of
interannual variability. In recent years, reducing sea ice extent
in some
regions has been balanced by increasing extent in others and
there is no
evidence for a decline in overall Antarctic sea ice extent.
One region of Antarctica where detectable climatic change does
seem to be
occurring is the central and southern parts of the west coast of
the
Antarctic Peninsula. Climate records from this region extend back
50 years
and, over this period, annual mean temperatures have risen by
about 2°C - a
far larger rise than seen elsewhere in the Southern Hemisphere.
Although
climate model predictions do indicate an enhanced response to
future global
warming in some parts of the polar regions, the Antarctic
Peninsula is not
one of these areas. The lack of a clear modelled association
between
Peninsula warming and global warming means that it is premature
to attribute
warming in the Peninsula to an enhanced "greenhouse"
effect. However,
climate models are currently unable to reproduce the warming
observed over
the past 50 years in the Peninsula (while they simulate global
changes over
this period quite well). Given this weakness in current model
performance,
future climate scenarios for the region must be treated with some
caution
and a link between Peninsula warming and the enhanced
"greenhouse" effect
cannot be ruled out completely at present. Whatever the case, we
know that
the climate of the region is highly sensitive as a result of
complex
interactions between atmosphere, oceans and sea-ice and studying
it can tell
us much about polar climate processes. Recent research also shows
that the
climate of this region is strongly influenced by climate
variations in the
subtropical and tropical South Pacific, such as those associated
with El
Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). While such
"teleconnections" are
responsible for much of the short-term variability in climate
seen in this
region, their role in driving longer-term (decadal to century
scale) change
remains to be clarified.
The observed warming has already had a significant impact in the
region and
is believed to have caused the disintegration of both the Wordie
Ice Shelf
and the northern part of the Larsen Ice Shelf. Warmer conditions
in recent
years have also led to increased colonisation by plants at
certain sites in
the region. The collapse of the ice shelf that formerly occupied
Prince
Gustav Channel provided BAS scientists with a unique opportunity
to study
seabed sediments from beneath the former ice shelf and
reconstruct a history
of its extent. The sediment record suggests that an ice shelf has
existed in
this area for much of the past 10,000 years. However, there is
evidence from
iceberg-rafted rock debris in sediment cores that the ice shelf
disintegrated about 5,000 years ago and re-formed some 2,000
years ago. The
recent disintegration (and, by inference, the recent warming) is
thus
unusual, but not unprecedented in the context of the past 10,000
years.
Changes have also occurred in the upper atmosphere over
Antarctica.
Measurements made over the Antarctic Peninsula and the Falkland
Islands show
that the level of peak electron concentration in the ionospheric
F-region
(at about 300 km altitude) has fallen by about 8 km over 38
years. Unlike
the surface temperature trends, these changes can be attributed
to increased
greenhouse gas concentrations with some level of confidence.
While the lower
atmosphere warms in response to increasing concentrations of
greenhouse
gases, the upper atmosphere cools. Theoretical studies indicate
that the
observed fall in the height of the F-region is compatible with
expected
temperature changes in the thermosphere.
Some of the issues covered in this position statement are
discussed at
greater length in a recent review paper by BAS staff: Vaughan, D.
G., G. J.
Marshall, W. M. Connolley, J. C. King, and R. M. Mulvaney, 2001:
"Devil in
the detail" . Science, 293, 1777-1779.
Dr John King and members of the Physical and Geological Sciences
Divisions
of the British Antarctic Survey.
E-mail: jcki@bas.ac.uk
© Copyright Natural Environment Research Council - British
Antarctic Survey
2002
===============
(6) SUN-EARTH DAY 2002
>From Paal Brekke <pbrekke@esa.nascom.nasa.gov>
The second annual Sun-Earth Day will "Celebrate the
Equinox" on March 20
with programs and activities at NASA Centers and a two-hour
televised webcast
featuring discussions on the Sun's connection to the Earth
through images,
cultural parallels and activities that Native Americans have used
to share
Sun-Earth science through several generations.
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/hotshots/
=============
(7) SCIENTISTS PREDICT CALMER [SPACE] WEATHER AHEAD
>From Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>
Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics
For more information, contact:
David A. Aguilar, Public Affairs
Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics
Phone: 617-495-7462 Fax: 617-495-7468
daguilar@cfa.harvard.edu
For Release: March 19, 2002
Release No.: 02-08
Scientists Predict Calmer Weather Ahead
Cambridge, MA -- Astronomers at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center
for
Astrophysics (CfA) may have good news for the Earth: calmer
weather in space
is ahead. When the Sun is more active and space weather gets
"stormy," it
has bad effects on our planet. Energy from solar eruptions
changes the
orbits of satellites, causing them to spiral back to the Earth.
The
intensified solar radiation and streams of electrically charged
particles
can directly damage satellites and increase radiation doses to
astronauts.
Solar eruptions perturb the Earth's magnetic field, causing
communications
disruptions especially to cell phone and other wireless devices.
Magnetic
storms also cause current surges in power lines that destroy
equipment and
knock out power over large areas.
The predictions of calmer weather are the result of analyzing
observations
from a CfA instrument called the Ultraviolet Coronagraph
Spectrometer, or
UVCS. These first-of-a-kind observations by UVCS and other
instruments
aboard the international Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
(SOHO) are
providing the best descriptions yet of the workings of the Sun
from its core
to its surface. The observations also are leading the way to
better
long-term predictions of how and when the Sun's gusty particle
emissions are
released to affect spacecraft and life on Earth. Improved
predictions are
expected after next-generation instruments come on line later in
the decade.
"We need these better predictions as we become more
dependent upon
satellites and reliable long-distance communications," says
CfA's Dr. Mari
Paz Miralles.
Solar activity varies over an 11-year cycle. Every eleven years
the Sun
undergoes a period of low activity called solar minimum that
ascends to a
period of high activity called solar maximum and then back to
solar minimum.
One way of tracking the solar activity is by observing sunspots.
Sunspots
are regions of intense magnetic field that are cooler and darker
than the
surrounding areas of the Sun's surface. These active regions can
erupt and
cause solar flares and
coronal mass ejections, which hurl energetic, electrically
charged particles
toward the Earth. During solar minimum there are only a few
sunspots on the
Sun's surface, while during solar maximum there are about 20
times more spots.
Space weather is influenced not only by the presence of active
regions, but
also by coronal holes -- open magnetic field regions of the
corona that have
low density and brightness. At solar minimum, the Sun generally
has a
coronal hole at each of its poles and none near its equator. As
solar
activity increases, the coronal hole at the Sun's north pole
shrinks, other
smaller coronal holes emerge near it, and they appear to migrate
toward the
solar equator and eventually to the
south pole. The same happens in reverse at the Sun's south pole.
At solar
maximum, the coronal holes are found near the equator along with
active
regions. As the Sun spins, coronal mass ejections and high-energy
atomic
particles from solar flares are sprayed at the Earth like water
from a
twirling garden sprinkler. As the solar cycle continues, the
coronal holes
complete their migration to the opposite pole, causing the Sun's
magnetic
poles to reverse. The changes in the magnetic field that lead to
the
flipping of the Sun's magnetic poles is the major reason for
long-term
variations in space weather.
These observations above the solar surface reveal the workings of
the solar
"dynamo" that operates in the Sun's interior and
generates the solar
magnetic field. Unlike the Earth, which has a molten iron core,
the Sun is
gaseous throughout its interior. The Sun's magnetic field is
created solely
by electrical currents similar to the way an electromagnet
operates. In the
Sun, these currents are produced by the circulation of extremely
hot,
electrically charged gas or plasma. A combination of the interior
circulation of the plasma and the Sun's rotation creates the
magnetic field.
The dynamo action takes this initially weak field and builds it
up to a much
stronger magnetic field.
The main driver of this dynamo is the solar differential
rotation: the Sun
is not a rigid body, but rotates faster at the equator than at
the poles.
This differential rotation causes any north-south magnetic field
inside the
Sun to be stretched out in the east-west direction. This
stretching
contributes to the birth of new active regions, which then drive
the
movement of magnetic flux to the poles, eventually leading to a
reversal of
the Sun's entire magnetic field.
The UVCS is valuable for studying the Sun because it is the only
instrument
able to measure atomic particle speeds and temperatures in the
region of the
solar corona where the primary accelerations of the solar wind
and coronal
mass ejections occur. The UVCS has observed the solar corona --
the faint
outer atmosphere of the Sun visible from the Earth during a total
solar
eclipse -- for six years and has recorded drastic changes in this
hot,
tenuous layer. During this period, the Sun's activity increased
from its
lowest level in 1996 to its maximum in 2000, then decreased again
only to
rebound in 2001. This second increase in the Sun's activity level
created a
double- peaked activity maximum.
Another instrument called LASCO from the Naval Research
Laboratory makes
images of the solar corona and determines particle densities.
Together,
these two instruments have seen, for the first time, how the
densities,
temperatures, and speeds of charged particles in the expanding
solar wind
vary as solar activity changes. In 1996-1997 at solar minimum,
UVCS observed
a simpler solar wind structure, with fast, hot flows from polar
coronal
holes that remained open over long periods of time. Around solar
maximum,
UVCS also observed coronal holes at other places as well, like at
the Sun's
equator and middle latitudes. When comparing UVCS measurements of
coronal
holes at solar minimum and maximum, scientists discovered
intriguing
differences. The wind at solar minimum accelerates faster from
coronal holes
that are both hotter and less dense than those at
solar maximum. These results were reported by Mari Paz Miralles
and Steven
Cranmer at an international meeting on "SOHO Observations
Over Half a Solar
Cycle" held in Davos, Switzerland earlier this month. The
results are also
reported in two articles published in the March 10 and October
20, 2001
issues of Astrophysical Journal Letters.
Understanding the variation of the solar corona and its wind over
the solar
cycle is vital for our comprehension of the Sun's role in our
daily lives.
As we approach solar minimum, only five years away, the Sun will
produce
fewer solar flares and fewer coronal mass ejections. But the
coronal holes
at the solar poles will fan out and their magnetic fields will
reach
downward toward the solar equator, allowing high-speed wind from
the solar
poles to reach the Earth. During this relatively peaceful time
ahead, we
will still need to be mindful of the approach of these high-speed
wind
streams and their associated high-energy electrons and magnetic
disturbances
that will still pose a threat to all of our satellite based
essentials and
conveniences.
Headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, the
Harvard-Smithsonian Center
for Astrophysics (CfA) is a joint collaboration between the
Smithsonian
Astrophysical Observatory and the Harvard College Observatory.
CfA
scientists organized into seven research divisions study the
origin,
evolution, and ultimate fate of the universe. The Solar and
Heliospheric
Observatory (SOHO) is a mission of international cooperation
between the
European Space Agency and NASA.
Note to editors: A high-resolution image of a coronal mass
ejection is
online at
http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/press/uvcs_images.html
=============
(8) EL NINO FORECAST REVISITED
by Dr Theodor Landscheidt
http://www.john-daly.com/sun-enso/revisit.htm
Schroeter Institute for Research in Cycles of Solar Activity,
Belle Côte,
Nova Scotia, Canada
1. Background of ENSO Forecast
On 11 January 1999, my paper "Solar Activity Controls El
Niño and La Niña"
was published on this web site. It included a forecast of the
next El Niño
around 2002.9 (End of November 2002). As this date is
approaching, it seems
to be in order to give a short delineation of the background of
this
forecast for those readers who are interested in an explanation
of the
general concept, but shun technical details. This all the more so
as there
are first indications that an El Niño is in the making.
My forecast is exclusively based on cycles of solar activity.
This does not
conform to the dominating trend in official science. The Third
Assessment
Report, published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC),
continues to underestimate the Sun's role in climate change:
"Solar forcing
is considerably smaller than the anthropogenic radiative
forcings", and its
"level of scientific understanding" is "very
low", whereas forcing by
well-mixed greenhouse gases "continues to enjoy the highest
confidence
level" as to its scientific understanding. The Third Report
considers it
"unlikely that natural forcing can explain the warming in
the latter half of
the 20th century." There are also frequent assertions in the
literature that
there was only a negligible effect of solar activity on
temperature in
recent decades.
2. Effect of solar eruptions on climate stronger than variations
in
irradiance
The IPCC's judgement is based on the observation that the Sun's
irradiance
changes only by about 0.1 percent during the course of the
11-year sunspot
cycle. It turns out to be untenable when the Sun's eruptional
activity
(energetic flares, coronal mass ejections, eruptive prominences)
as well as
solar wind contributions by coronal holes are taken into
consideration. The
total magnetic flux leaving the Sun, dragged out by the solar
wind, has
risen by a factor of 2.3 since 1901 (Lockwood et al., 1999),
while
concomitantly global temperature increased by about 0.6°C. The
energy in the
solar flux is transferred to the near-Earth environment by
magnetic
reconnection and directly into the atmosphere by charged
particles.
Energetic flares increase the Sun's UV radiation by at least 16
percent.
Ozone in the stratosphere absorbs this excess energy which causes
local
warming and circulation disturbances. General circulation models
developed
by Haigh (1996), Shindell et al. (1999), and Balachandran et al.
(1999)
confirm that circulation changes, initially induced in the
stratosphere, can
penetrate into the troposphere and influence temperature, air
pressure,
Hadley circulation, and storm tracks by changing the distribution
of large
amounts of energy already present in the atmosphere.
The strongest contributors to the intensity of the solar wind are
solar
eruptions which create the highest velocities in the solar wind
and shock
waves that compress and intensify magnetic fields in the solar
wind plasma.
Indirectly, they modulate the strength of galactic cosmic rays
that
conceivably have an effect on cloud cover, attributed to cloud
seeding by
ionized secondary particles (Svensmark et al., 1997; Pallé'
Bagó et al.,
2000)
Figure 1 after Egorova et al. (2000) provides evidence of this
connection.
>From 1981 to 1991, Egorova, Vovk, and Troshichev (2000)
observed surface
temperature (lower panel) and atmospheric pressure at 10 km
altitude (upper
panel) at the Russian Antarctic station, Vostok. Tiny open
circles indicate
superimposed daily observations during the winter season. The
solid line
describes the 10-winter average. Fat circles mark Forbush events.
These are
sharp decreases in the intensity of galactic cosmic rays caused
by energetic
solar flares. As can be seen from Figure 1, temperature was
nearly always
above the mean after Forbush events, often reaching departures
around 20°C.
These 51 experiments performed by Nature and observed by man show
a clear
connection between solar eruptions, a decrease in cosmic ray
intensity, and
a strong rise in temperature, not to mention the strong decrease
in air
pressure. It would be a redundant exercise to assess the
statistical
significance of this distinct result. It is consistent to
assume that the
rise in temperature was linked to shrinking cloud cover because
of less
intense cosmic rays, though the microphysical details of the
effect are not
yet clear. This link is confirmed by Pudvokin and Veretenenko
(1995) who
observed marked shrinking of local cloud cover by 3 % after
Forbush events.
4. Solar eruptions have an impact on tropical circulation
El Niños occur in the tropical Pacific, far away from
Antarctica. There is
cogent evidence, however, that the Sun's eruptional activity,
too, has a
strong effect in the tropics. Fig. 2 after Neff et al.
(2001) shows a
strong correlation between solar eruptions, driving the solar
wind, and
tropical circulation and rainfall. The dark profile represents
oxygen
isotope variations ( 18O) in a dated stalagmite from Oman. The
18O record,
covering more than 3000 years (9.6 to 6.1 kyr before present),
serves as a
proxy for change in tropical circulation and monsoon rainfall.
The bright
14C profile shows radiocarbon deviations derived from the
analysis of dated
tree rings. The level of radiocarbon production in the atmosphere
depends on
the changing strength of cosmic rays. Because of the reverse
relationship of
cosmic rays with solar activity, the radiocarbon record serves as
a proxy of
the Sun's activity. Most scientists think that this proxy
is related to the
activity of sunspots and faculae linked to relatively weak
changes in
irradiance.
Actually, the radiocarbon data are a proxy of the Sun's
eruptional activity
driving the solar wind. Energetic solar eruptions do not
accumulate around
the sunspot maximum. In most cycles they shun the maximum
phase and can
even occur close to a sunspot minimum.
The upper panel in Fig. 2 covers the whole investigated interval,
whereas
the lower panel shows the nearly perfect synchronicity in detail.
Lake bottom cores from the Yucatan Peninsula show a similar
correlation,
covering more than 2000 years, between recurrent droughts and the
radiocarbon record linked to the Sun's eruptional activity via
cosmic rays
(Hodell et al., 2001). These results and many less recent ones
document the
importance of the Sun's eruptional activity for climate change in
the
tropics. So it suggests itself to see whether other tropical
climate
phenomena show similar connections with solar eruptions.
FULL PAPER at http://www.john-daly.com/sun-enso/revisit.htm
==============
(9) THE MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD AND LITTLE ICE AGE IN THE EASTERN
MEDITERRANEAN
>From CO2 Science Magazine, 20 March 2002
http://www.co2science.org/journal/2002/v5n12c2.htm
Reference
Schilman, B., Bar-Matthews, M., Almogi-Labin, A. and Luz, B.
2001. Global
climate instability reflected by Eastern Mediterranean marine
records during
the late Holocene. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology,
Palaeoecology 176:
157-176.
What was done
The authors analyzed foraminiferal oxygen and carbon isotopes and
the
physical and geochemical properties of sediments contained in two
cores
extracted from the bed of the southeastern Mediterranean Sea off
the coast
of Israel.
What was learned
The authors note that "late Holocene climatic instability
was clearly
demonstrated" by their high-resolution study. Over the past
millennium, they
make particular mention of two extreme climatic events: one
centered at
about 1200 AD, which they describe as "the Medieval Warm
Period (MWP) global
climatic event," and one centered at about 1730, which they
describe as "the
cooling global event known as the Little Ice Age."
What it means
In discussing their findings, the authors note there is an
abundance of
other evidence for the existence of the Medieval Warm Period in
the Eastern
Mediterranean, including "high Saharan lake levels (Schoell,
1978;
Nicholson, 1980), high Dead Sea levels (Issar et al., 1989, 1991;
Issar,
1990, 1998; Issar and Makover-Levin, 1996), and high levels of
the Sea of
Galilee (Frumkin et al., 1991; Issar and Makover-Levin,
1996)," as well as
"a precipitation maximum at the Nile headwaters (Bell and
Menzel, 1972;
Hassan, 1981; Ambrose and DeNiro, 1989) and in the northeastern
Arabian Sea
(von Rad et al., 1999)." In addition, they remark that
their Little Ice Age
data paint a picture of "the coldest conditions prevailing
in the SE
Mediterranean during the past 3.6 ka [3600 years]."
The evidence for a global Medieval Warm Period and a global
Little Ice Age
keeps getting stronger by the day (see both headings in our
Subject Index).
Clearly, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change should
never have
abandoned their original climate history of the world - which
accurately
depicted these significant climatic excursions (Houghton et al.,
1990) - in
favor of the flawed "hockey stick" plot of Mann et al.
(1998, 1999).
References
Ambrose, S.H. and DeNiro, M.J. 1989. Climate and habitat
reconstruction
using stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios of collagen in
prehistoric
herbivore teeth from Kenya. Quaternary Research 31:
407-422.
Bell, B. and Menzel, D.H. 1972. Toward the observation and
interpretation of
solar phenomena. AFCRL F19628-69-C-0077 and
AFCRL-TR-74-0357, Air Force
Cambridge Research Laboratories, Bedford, MA, pp. 8-12.
Frumkin, A., Magaritz, M., Carmi, I. and Zak, I.
1991. The Holocene
climatic record of the salt caves of Mount Sedom, Israel.
Holocene 1,
191-200.
Hassan, F.A. 1981. Historical Nile floods and their implications
for
climatic change. Science 212: 1142-1145.
Houghton, J.T., Jenkins, G.J. and Ephraums, J.J. (Eds.)
1990. Climate
Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge University
Press,
Cambridge, UK.
Issar, A.S. 1990. Water Shall Flow from the Rock. Springer,
Heidelberg,
Germany.
Issar, A.S. 1998. Climate change and history during the Holocene
in the
eastern Mediterranean region. In: Issar, A.S. and Brown, N.
(Eds.), Water,
Environment and Society in Times of Climate Change, Kluwer
Academic
Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp. 113-128.
Issar, A.S. and Makover-Levin, D. 1996. Climate changes during
the Holocene
in the Mediterranean region. In: Angelakis, A.A. and Issar,
A.S. (Eds.),
Diachronic Climatic Impacts on Water Resources with Emphasis on
the
Mediterranean Region, NATO ASI Series, Vol. I, 36, Springer,
Heidelberg,
Germany, pp. 55-75.
Issar, A.S., Tsoar, H. and Levin, D. 1989. Climatic changes in
Israel during
historical times and their impact on hydrological, pedological
and
socio-economic systems. In: Leinen, M. and Sarnthein, M. (Eds.),
Paleoclimatology and Paleometeorology: Modern and Past Patterns
of Global
Atmospheric Transport, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The
Netherlands, pp. 535-541.
Issar, A.S., Govrin, Y., Geyh, M.A., Wakshal, E. and Wolf,
M. 1991.
Climate changes during the Upper Holocene in Israel. Israel
Journal of
Earth-Science 40: 219-223.
Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S. and Hughes, M.K. 1998. Global-scale
temperature
patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries.
Nature 392:
779-787.
Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S. and Hughes, M.K. 1999. Northern
Hemisphere
temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences,
uncertainties, and
limitations. Geophysical Research Letters 26: 759-762.
Nicholson, S.E. 1980. Saharan climates in historic times.
In: Williams,
M.A.J. and Faure, H. (Eds.), The Sahara and the Nile, Balkema,
Rotterdam,
The Netherlands, pp. 173-200.
Schoell, M. 1978. Oxygen isotope analysis on authigenic
carbonates from
Lake Van sediments and their possible bearing on the climate of
the past
10,000 years. In: Degens, E.T. (Ed.), The Geology of Lake
Van, Kurtman. The
Mineral Research and Exploration Institute of Turkey, Ankara,
Turkey, pp.
92-97.
von Rad, U., Schulz, H., Riech, V., den Dulk, M., Berner, U. and
Sirocko, F.
1999. Multiple monsoon-controlled breakdown of oxygen-minimum
conditions
during the past 30,000 years documented in laminated sediments
off Pakistan.
Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 152: 129-161.
Copyright © 2002. Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide
and Global Change
============================
* LETTERS TO THE MODERATOR *
============================
(10) IS IT WARMER NOW THAN DURING THE MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD?
>From Timo Niroma <timo.niroma@tilmari.pp.fi>
Dear Benny,
The discussion about global warming needs more perspective than
it has
today. IPCC reports are nowadays rapidly turned into politics and
have gone
a big step away from pure science.
First there is the question of the validity of the supposed 0.6
degrees C
rise during the past hundred years. There are many biases in that
figure.
1. The measurements are made mostly on densely populated areas,
the spacely
inhabited areas are underrepresented.
2. Most measurements are made on land areas, the warer areas
(over 2/3 of
planets area) are underrepresented. Besides the temperatures of
the surface
waters should also be measured, separately. It is very
significant that the
measuring points are not the same accurate points during the
hundred years.
3. Antarctica, Siberia, rainforests are besides the oceans
underrepresented.
The temperatures are not calibrated according to the height
(although high
mountains are also underrepresented).
4. The various ways of measuring the temperature are not
standardized: how
many times during the 24 hours, what kind of places, what kinds
and in which
way calibrated instruments.
If these biases were random, we could trust the rise 0.6 degrees,
but
because they actually contain systematic errors, it is very
dangerous to
make this figure something like an absolute measure of warming of
the last
hundred years.
Still more dangerous is it to estimate - to base on these studies
- the
temperature hundred years from now, but that is just what has
been done. The
Kyoto protocol is based on it. Some very poorly based suggestions
to reduce
the so-called greenhouse gases are made. Suggestions are good for
the health
of the people, but their effect on the climate of earth is very
questionable. So if we are prepared to pay huge amounts of money
to reduce the temperature of
the earth, that's pure waste. But if Kyoto protocol is to clean
the
atmosphere, it is welcome . Corals bleed, but if it is caused by
for example
el Nino, let it be. Corals die because mankind poisons its
environment.
But I take the challenge of IPCC. My material are proxies that
also have
their biases, the most serious being that the data are mostly
from Northern
hemisphere and proxies are not calibrated. The last hundred years
use partly
the same data as IPCC has had. Let's see what we get.
After having studied tens of studies by different methods there
begins to
emerge a picture of the previous occasion of similar climatic
conditions as
today are prevailing. After the cold 9th century (most probably
at least as
cold the 17th century) there was the oscillating 10th century
that lead to
the first settlements in Iceland (about 930), in Greenland (about
980) and
the Newfoundland occupation (about 1000). This warming led to the
socalled
Medieval warming, that according to my calculations led at three
occasions
(980-1040, the 12th century plus the latter part of the 13th
century). These
periods were at the top about 0.9 degrees C warmer than the
1990's, so there
is still room to warm to achieve the same temperatures as
prevailed at times
during the Medieval period.
The Medieval Warm Period (MWP) came to an end about 1300 (there
was a short
very warm period about 1350-1380). But after that, especially
after 1400
began a long-lasting cold period (including the very cold Sporer
and Maunder
minima). After the coldest decade of 1690's in 800 years, began
the Modern
Global Warming after 1700. It has had two cold periods, the
colder but short
Dalton minimum 1800-1830, and a longer but not as cold a period
about
1860-1920.
Since 1925 there has been something that can be called global
warming.
However there was a colder period from about 1965 to 1985. This
is easily
explained by the activity of the Sun, but not by socalled
greenhouse gases.
Similarly the warm decade of 1990's is easily explained by the
high
activity of the Sun. After the minimum of 1986 Sun activated very
quickly
and held a very high and prolonged activity in 1989-1992. Albeit
the ongoing
maximum is lower, it is two-topped. The primary maximum was in
2000, and the
second maximum is there at the moment (2002). But there are
indications that
the next minimum will be delayed, which causes the next maximum
to be low.
This means a global cooling beginning in 2015-2020.
As the temperatures before about 1800 have to be estimated by
proxies, the
sunspots before Maunder minimum also must use proxies. One such
are the
aurorae observations. Both can also be approximated by known
historical
facts.
I would suggest that IPCC chooses an amount of measurement points
that are
calibrated individually. This means that we see the differences
between
places and times instead of taking an average or a median of very
different
places. And if there is global warming (or cooling) it should be
studied as
divided geographically, monthly and by time of day (night/day). I
have
chosen Helsinki. Besides being my home town, it has an over 173
year long
continuous record of temperatures. Helsinki is interestingly
between the
Arctic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea in north-south direction
and between
the Russian Plains and the Atlantic Ocean in east-west direction.
If we use a half-a-century division, we get immediately an
interesting
result: although both winters and summers have been in the first
part of the
20th century warmer than in the latter part of the 19th century
(winters by
1.3 degrees C and summers by 1.5 degrees C measured by medians),
in the
latter part of the 20th have summers been 1.0 degrees C colder
than during
the first part (winters have continued their warming by 1.8
degrees C).
So the winters have warmed during 100 years by 3.1 degrees C, but
summers
only by a net of 0.5 degrees C. This kind of difference cries for
an
explanation. And that should happen before we make any
predictions of the
coming temperatures.
Regards,
Timo Niroma
http://www.kolumbus.fi/tilmari/clim.htm
http://www.tilmari.pp.fi/tilmari5.htm
http://personal.inet.fi/tiede/tilmari/sunspot5.html
==============
(11) POPULATION BOMB MYTH IMPLODES AS POPULATION ESTIMATES FALL
>From The New York Times, 10 March 2002
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/03/10/international/10POPU.html
By BARBARA CROSSETTE
UNITED NATIONS, March 8 - For decades, experts assumed that the
world's
biggest developing nations, the home of hundreds of millions in
big
families, would push the global population to a precarious 10
billion people
by the end of this century.
Now, evidence is now coming in that women in rural villages and
the teeming
megacities of Brazil, Egypt, India and Mexico are unexpectedly
proving those
predictions wrong. Next week, demographers from around the world
will meet
here to reassess the outlook and possibly lower the estimate by
about a
billion people this century.
In India alone, by 2100 there may be 600 million fewer people
than
predicted.
The decline in birthrates in nations where poverty and illiteracy
are still
widespread defies almost all conventional wisdom. Planners once
argued - and
some still do - that falling birthrates can only follow improved
living
standards and more educational opportunities, not outrun them. It
now seems
that women are not waiting for that day.
A few demographers are venturing to say that the trend may have
little to do
with government policies on family planning or foreign aid.
Since the United Nations conference on population and development
in Cairo
in 1994, women in many countries have said that if they had
control over
their reproductive lives, lower fertility rates would be a given.
Women's
health organizations now say that is happening.
"From Delhi to Rio, women's health advocates have stood fast
against
top-down population policies, and have stood for women's rights -
and
abilities - to make decisions about their bodies," said
Cynthia Steele, vice
president for programs at the International Women's Health
Coalition in New
York. "Whether they live in villages or high-rises, women
have always known
what's best for them and their families. Now we're seeing the
results of
their own choices to have fewer children."
Joseph Chamie, the director of the United Nations population
division, said:
"A woman in a village making a decision to have one or two
or at most three
children is a small decision in itself. But when these get
compounded by
millions and millions and millions of women in India and Brazil
and Egypt,
it has global consequences."
Mr. Chamie said it had been assumed that the fertility rates in
big
developing countries - the number of births, on average, per
woman - would
fall at best only to what is known as replacement level. That
number is 2.1,
or a little more than one child for each parent. But in big
countries, even
that pace would add a huge number to an already large population
base before
the trend eventually moderates.
Demographers may now be willing to go out on a limb and say that
the
fertility rates in the big developing countries may even drop
below the
replacement level, and sooner than most of them would have
thought possible.
That would follow the trend already established in industrial
countries,
where the population slowdown has caused concerns about shrinking
labor
forces and aging populations.
Just as women are pushing for a larger role in economic life
around the
world, they are also apparently becoming more assertive within
families.
"We're breaking both the fertility floor and the glass
ceiling," Mr. Chamie
said.
In India, Gita Sen, professor of economics at the Indian
Institute of
Management in Bangalore, said in a telephone interview that there
were
important cultural factors at work.
"Fertility in India is declining and it is declining faster
than many people
had expected," she said. One reason, she said, is "that
with increasing
awareness on the part of women, they are being able to control
their own
fertility much better."
"It seems to start in one village and then spread to other
places around
that area," she said. "Attitudes are changing, and
people are watching what
their neighbors are doing."
With declining infant mortality, mothers become more confident
that their
babies will survive, Ms. Sen added, and so they can have fewer
children. She
and other experts say that urbanization also eases some family
controls on
women, and makes contraceptive pills or devices easier to find.
Both family pressure and lack of access to reproductive health
care limit
many women.
Ms. Sen said a family survey in 1999 in India, where the
fertility rate is
still about 3.0 per woman, underlined the change in attitudes.
"It was a
very detailed survey that interviewed close to 90,000 married
women all
across the country," she said. "One of the most
striking things in that was
that even in the poorer northern states if you ask women about
the number of
children that they want, it's much lower than the number that
they actually
have."
In Brazil, women have reduced fertility levels without an
official national
family planning policy, Ana Maria Goldani of the department of
sociology and
Latin American studies at U.C.L.A. wrote in a paper for next
week's
conference. Brazil's fertility rate has tumbled, to 2.27 from
6.15 in the
last half century, and it continues to fall for reasons that Ms.
Goldani
says are only now being analyzed.
Gelson Fonseca, Brazil's ambassador to the United Nations, said
that
television was important. Brazilians see small and apparently
happy families
in television programs and think about emulating that example.
In Bangladesh, family planning experts noticed a decade ago that
in some of
the remotest areas, information gleaned from satellite television
was
influencing contraceptive choices. In one case, a certain
intrauterine
device was rejected by many women in an area where one of them
had seen it
described as hazardous in a Western television program.
There are 74 countries in what the United Nations calls the
intermediate-level fertility group, with births between 2.1 and 5
per woman.
This group includes very populous countries like Bangladesh,
Brazil, Egypt,
India, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, the Philippines and Vietnam.
Some demographers question whether any one trend will fit them
all, and ask
whether it may not be as mistaken to herald a general population
decline to
below replacement levels as it was to pronounce that the larger
developing
nations would never reach this stage.
John C. Caldwell of the Australian National University urges
caution. In a
paper prepared for next week's meeting, he writes of a "loss
of fervor" in
the developing world for further fertility decline.
Countries are not homogenous, he argued, and there are some large
ones in
Africa and Asia where there will continue to be a preference for
more
children.
But Ms. Sen says that she is not concerned about India
backsliding in the
movement toward ever-lower fertility rates, arguing that
education and
cultural factors are becoming catalysts for change.
"For a very long time we've had a huge problem in terms of
50 to 60 percent
of the female population being illiterate," she said.
"The most recent
census, the 2001 census, shows the biggest increases in literacy
happening
in some of the poor northern states - big jumps in literacy - and
that means
girls going to school.
"Those same girls are going to be making the fertility
decisions in another
10 years or so," she said, "and I don't think they are
going to make them in
the same way that their illiterate mothers may have."
Copyright 2002, The New York Times
===========
(12) AND FINALLY: 'DISTURBING STATISTICS'
>From Tech Central Station, 20 March 2002
http://www.techcentralstation.com/1051/envirowrapper.jsp?PID=1051-450&CID=1051-032002D
By James K. Glassman 03/20/2002
Junk Science Judo is not your typical self-help snorer. Unlike
Chicken Soup
for the Soul, or Who Moved My Cheese?, Steven Milloy's new book
provides
something all of us can actually use. And it's entertaining to
boot.
A Fox News contributor and the publisher of the popular
JunkScience.com web
site, Milloy aims to help you protect your family and your
business from
junk science, the latest weapon wielded by interest groups to
advance their
agendas. It is the perfect tool in a world where ends justify
means, and is
wielded with equal expertise in courtrooms, political campaigns,
the
marketplace, and the media.
Milloy warns of political activists who turn their activism into
organizations that operate under benign banners like
"physicians committees"
or "public-interest" groups. "Activists often
place their agendas ahead of
the facts," he writes. "They will say and do virtually
anything to promote
their cause. If a health scare will help, then a health scare can
be
manufactured."
But it's not just political activists for whom junk science is
prized. It
comes in handy for many others. It's a useful tool for the
rapacious trial
lawyer buckraking for class-action contingency riches; for the
politician
striving for election; for the business that wants to harm
competitors or
promote its own products; for the regulatory agency bureaucrat
who wants his
authority expanded; for the obscure scientist hoping to make a
name for
himself; and for the journalist hungry to make news.
Junk science is a new term for an old concept - fraud. The
phenomenon of
this kind of fraud in recent decades, however, has infected many
of our
institutions, and at great costs to the economy. The
pervasiveness of junk
science Milloy catalogs is quite simply shocking. What's more
shocking is
the likelihood that even the most skeptical customer has at one
time or
another unwillingly bought into - i.e., fallen victim to - junk
science
mythology.
Are silicone breast implants dangerous? How could they not be?
After all,
they were banned by the Food and Drug Administration. Do cell
phones cause
brain cancer? Cellular phone companies are being forced to defend
themselves
in court on that very charge. Are apples with Alar unhealthy? 60
Minutes
seemed to suggest so. Does fen-phen heighten the risk of heart
disease?
That's what the nightly news reported. Shouldn't pregnant women
avoid sodas
and coffee? The word is that caffeine can cause birth defects.
Same with
plastic baby bottles, which are alleged to leach toxins into a
vulnerable
child's bloodstream. Are organic foods healthier than
non-organic? Of
course, right?
The answer to each of these questions is no, but you can't fault
the casual
observer for thinking otherwise. Thanks to the efforts of
environmental
groups, scheming politicians, and media enablers willing to pass
along
spoon-fed alarmism without subjecting it to scrutiny, many
Americans are
convinced that the world (and the marketplace) is a lot more
dangerous than
it is.
Most junk science claims use evidence that is (at best) weak,
employing
dubious statistical associations using suspect data. Which is why
it would
be smart to note Milloy's point that statistics is not science.
Neither is
epidemiology. That's just statistics. And it is important not to
assume that
something that is scientific sounding - like a parade of
statistics - is
scientific. After all, stats don't prove cause and effect.
Next time a television anchor peddles the latest "disturbing
statistics"
suggesting a new health concern, keep in mind the conversation
between Homer
Simpson and Smartline's pompous TV newsman Kent Brockman.
Brockman: Mr. Simpson, how do you respond to the charges that
petty
vandalism such as graffiti is down eighty percent, while heavy
sack-beatings
are up a shocking nine hundred percent?
Homer: Aw, people can come up with statistics to prove anything,
Kent. Forty
percent of all people know that.
The Simpsons might be a cartoon, but that exchange isn't so far
off the
mark. Junk science is a cartoon discipline that might be funny if
it weren't
for the severe consequences. Included in these are mind-boggling
legal
judgments, personal and corporate bankruptcies, and the other
societal costs
associated with scaring the bejesus out of everyday people. (And
if you are
a baseball fan, there is the sad case of Baltimore Orioles owner
and trial
lawyer Peter Angelos, who wrecked the once-proud franchise after
buying it
with the ill-gotten gains from junk-science asbestos litigation.)
But all is not black, and there are ways to combat the tide of
cynical junk
science. The key to learning junk science judo is developing a
healthy
skepticism and a willingness to question conventional wisdom.
Question
everything, including the prestigious medical journals. There are
too many
parties that often have vested interests that can be advanced by
dubious
science, too many people for whom science is merely a tool and
never an end
in and of itself.
There is reason for optimism, if not here then in the next world.
Milloy
notes that in his Inferno, Dante "placed the diviners,
astrologers,
magicians, sowers of scandal and discord, alchemists, and liars
in the
eighth and next-to-most damned level of hell."
Now that's a health risk the junk scientists should worry about.
Copyright 2002, Tech Central Station
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