PLEASE NOTE:
*
CCNet 50/2001 - 30 March 2001
-----------------------------
"A giant comet in the distant reaches of our solar system
has an
extremely large, elongated orbit that can't be explained by the
gravitational pull from the giant planets in their current
positions.
The finding is the first solid evidence that a big planet once
roamed the
farthest outskirts of the solar system; maybe Neptune, before it
settled
down, the researchers say, or a mysterious, Mars-sized planet
that
could still be lurking there."
--Govert Schilling, inScight, 29 March 2001
"In their 27 March article on CCNet Fred Hoyle & Chandra
Wickramasinghe present another theory of glacial cycling:
"Cycles of
glaciation with an average period of ~100kyr are mediated by
cometary
bolides." The reasoning is that "the average frequency
of [comet
fragment impact] per 100kyr is remarkably close to the mean
length of the
glacial cycle." However, these 100 Ka cycles are actually
surprisingly regular, a fact that could not be explained by
random-cycle
impact causation."
--Hermann Burchard, 30 March 2001
"Duncan Steel asked if there was a distinct word to describe
the
fear of dying due to an asteroid or comet impact? It is a time
honoured tradition that scientists are able to just make up a new
word
if one isn't available, its one of the few perks of the job. So
what
about ARMAGEDDAPHOBIA - the fear of large impacts (or
alternatively the fear
that we'd actually use Bruce Willis as the Earth's last line of
defense)."
--Matthew Genge, 30 March 2001
(1) SIGNS OF A HIDDEN PLANET?
Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>
(2) FIREBALL SEEN OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE
The Register Citizen, 29 March 2001
(3) TWO SPACE PROBES SEE GIANT PLUMES ON VOLCANIC MOON IO
Spaceflight Now, 29 March 2001
(4) HIGH-TECH WARFARE COULD LITTER SPACE WITH DEBRIS
Space.com, 28 March 2001
(5) COMETS JUST AS HAZARDOUS AS ASTEROIDS
Christian Gritzner <christian.gritzner@mailbox.tu-dresden.de>
(6) $50 BILLION FINANCIAL LOSS FROM CATASTOPHES IN 2000
Insurance Net, 30 March 2001
(7) SPACE MATERIAL MYSTERY
Colin Keay <phcslk@cc.newcastle.edu.au>
(8) WHOSE ASTEROID IS WHOSE?
Andy Nimmo <andy-nimmo@ntlworld.com>
(9) ICE AGE REBOUND
Hermann Burchard <burchar@mail.math.okstate.edu>
(10) A NEW ASTROPHYSICAL SETTING FOR CHONDRULE FORMATION
Krot AN, Meibom A, Russell SS, Alexander
CMO, Jeffries TE, Keil K
(11) THE ORIGINS OF CHONDRULES
Shu FH, Shang H, Gounelle M, Glassgold
AE, Lee T
(12) AND FINALLY: ARMAGEDDAPHOBIA
Matthew Genge <M.Genge@nhm.ac.uk>
============
(1) SIGNS OF A HIDDEN PLANET?
From Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>
[Extracted from inScight, Academic Press,
http://www.academicpress.com/inscight/03292001/graphb.htm]
Thursday, 29 March 2001, 5 pm PST
Signs of a Hidden Planet?
By GOVERT SCHILLING
A giant comet in the distant reaches of our solar system has an
extremely
large, elongated orbit that can't be explained by the
gravitational pull
from the giant planets in their current positions. The finding is
the first
solid evidence that a big planet once roamed the farthest
outskirts of the
solar system; maybe Neptune, before it settled down, the
researchers say, or
a mysterious, Mars-sized planet that could still be lurking
there.
The supercomet, 2000 CR105, was first spotted in February 2000
and is some
400 kilometers wide. It has a highly elliptical orbit well beyond
Neptune,
the outermost giant planet in the solar system. There are
hundreds of other
icy "Trans-Neptunian Objects" (TNOs) which are believed
to have been flung
into their eccentric orbits early in the solar system's history
by the
gravitational pull of a giant planet -- most likely Neptune.
New observations by Brett Gladman of the Observatoire de la Côte
d'Azur,
France, and his colleagues now reveal that 2000 CR105's orbit is
much larger
and more distant than had been assumed: Even when it's closest to
the sun,
at 6.6 billion kilometers, it lies far outside Neptune's orbit.
(It's
farthest point is 58.2 billion kilometers from the sun.) The
giant
planets couldn't have put it there, Gladman and his colleagues
argue, at
least not from their current orbits.
Instead, Neptune may once have had a much more eccentric orbit
itself, from
which it could have tugged the comet to its current orbit, the
researchers
say in a paper submitted for publication in Icarus. Or it was
pulled there
by a massive population of planetary "embryos" that may
have inhabited the early solar system but were later expelled.
The most
exciting possibility is that a mid-sized planet at some 10
billion
kilometers from the sun caused 2000 CR105's orbit. And because
such a planet
would not be very vulnerable to orbit disruptions, it could still
be there,
the team says.
"This is the first conclusive evidence that somewhere out
there, there once
was something big," says Hal Levison of the Southwest
Research Institute in
Boulder, Colorado. "It's a very important result."
However, Levison doesn't
think there's another Mars waiting to be discovered, because it's
unclear
how it would have formed. Gladman suspects there must be many
more TNOs in
orbits like 2000 CR105; "finding more would give us a better
idea of how
they got there," Levison adds.
© 2001 The American Association for the Advancement of Science
==============
(2) FIREBALL SEEN OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE
From The Register Citizen, 29 March 2001
http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=1599214&BRD=1652&PAG=461&dept_id=12530&rfi=6
Glenn Carlson and his wife Sondra were traveling home from New
Hampshire
last weekend when they saw something bright streak across the
sky. In the
heavens above Route 8 southbound, the South Kent couple saw what
they
identified as a shooting star.
The pair admired the glow then noticed it's light flicker,
extinguish
momentarily, and bound toward Earth eventually landing in a
location between
TJ Maxx, O&G Industries, Route 8, and Charlotte Hungerford
Hospital.
"It didn't like explode or anything," Glenn said
Wednesday. "As it got
closer (into the Carlsons' view) it kind of flared up and it kind
of blacked
out."
Glenn said he was certain the object wasn't a bottle rocket or
any
mysterious visitor from outer space, merely a meteor speeding
wayward
through the atmosphere.
"It was pretty neat," Glenn said.
Susan French, vice president of the board of trustees for the
Dudley
Observatory in Schenectady, N.Y. and a star party coordinator for
the Albany
Amateur Astronomers Club, said the Carlsons indeed might have
seen a meteor.
The only thing, she said, is a meteorite, once it hovers about 12
miles
above the Earth, extinguishes itself entirely and could land
anywhere at
anytime. So pinpointing an exact location from a streak in the
sky would be
nearly impossible.
Most people identify fallen meteorites if the chunk of space rock
hits
something, such as a house or a car, or if a person stumbles upon
something
strange in a wooded area, French said.
"There always are meteor showers," she continued.
"There's a good chance he
saw a meteor."
A meteor, or shooting star, rapidly crosses the sky in about 15
seconds,
whereas a satellite or an airplane takes much longer, French
explained. And
this time of year is ripe for meteors, as the March showers are
now coming
to an end.
The only thing about which French was skeptical was the height
the Carlsons
said they saw the object. Generally, 60 miles in the air is when
people see
the burning rocks.
But then again, some could say it might have been something other
than a
meteor.
©The Register Citizen 2001
===========
(3) TWO SPACE PROBES SEE GIANT PLUMES ON VOLCANIC MOON IO
From Spaceflight Now, 29 March 2001
http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n0103/28galcassio/
Two tall volcanic plumes and the rings of red material they have
deposited
onto surrounding surface areas appear in images taken of
Jupiter's moon Io
by NASA's Galileo and Cassini spacecraft in late December 2000
and early
January 2001.
A plume near Io's equator comes from the volcano Pele. It has
been active
for at least four years, and has been far larger than any other
plume seen
on Io, until now. The other, nearer to Io's north pole, is a
Pele-sized
plume that had never been seen before, a fresh eruption from the
Tvashtar
Catena volcanic area.
The observations were made during joint studies of the Jupiter
system while
Cassini was passing Jupiter on its way to Saturn. The two craft
offered
complementary advantages for observing Io, the most volcanically
active body
in the solar system. Galileo passed closer to Io for
higher-resolution
images, and Cassini acquired images at ultraviolet wavelengths,
better for
detecting active volcanic plumes.
The Cassini ultraviolet images reveal two gigantic, actively
erupting plumes
of gas and dust. Near the equator, just the top of Pele's plume
is visible
where it projects into sunlight. None of it would be illuminated
if it were
less than 240 kilometers (150 miles) high.These images indicate a
total
height for Pele of 390 kilometers (242 miles). The Cassini image
at far
right shows a bright spot over Pele's vent. Although the Pele hot
spot has a
high temperature, silicate lava cannot be hot enough to explain a
bright
spot in the ultraviolet, so the origin of this bright spot is a
mystery, but
it may indicate that Pele was unusually active.
Also visible is a plume near Io's north pole. Although 15 active
plumes over
Io's equatorial regions have been detected in hundreds of images
from NASA's
Voyager and Galileo spacecraft, this is the first image ever
acquired of an
active plume over a polar region of Io.The plume projects about
150
kilometers (about 90 miles) over the limb, the edge of the globe.
If it were
erupting from a point on the limb, it would be only slightly
larger than a
typical Ionian plume, but the image does not reveal whether the
source is
actually at the limb or beyond it, out of view.
A distinctive feature in Galileo images since 1997 has been a
giant red ring
of Pele plume deposits about 1,400 kilometers (870 miles) in
diameter. The
Pele ring is seen again in one of the new Galileo images, lower
left. When
the new Galileo images were returned this month, scientists were
astonished
to see a second giant red ring on Io, centered around Tvashtar
Catena at 63
degrees north latitude. Tvashtar was the site of an active
curtain of
high-temperature silicate lava imaged by Galileo in November 1999
and
February 2000. The new ring shows that Tvashtar must be the vent
for the
north polar plume imaged by Cassini from the other side of Io!
This means
the plume is actually about 385 kilometers (239 miles) high, just
like Pele.
The uncertainty in estimating the height is about 30 kilometers
(19 miles),
so the plume could be anywhere from 355 to 405 kilometers (221 to
252 miles)
high.
If this new plume deposit is just one millimeter (four
one-hundredths of an
inch) thick, then the eruption produced more ash than the 1980
eruption of
Mount St. Helens in Washington.
NASA recently approved a third extension of the Galileo mission,
including a
pass over Io's north pole in August 2001. The spacecraft's
trajectory will
pass directly over Tvashtar at an altitude of 360 kilometers (224
miles).
Will Galileo fly through an active plume? That depends on whether
this
eruption is long-lived, like Pele, or brief, and it also depends
on how high
the plume is next August. Two Pele-sized plumes are inferred to
have erupted
in 1979 during the four months between Voyager 1 and Voyager 2
flybys, as
indicated by new Pele-sized rings in Voyager 2 images.
Thoseeruptions, both
from high-latitude locations, were shorter-lived than Pele, but
their actual
durations are unknown. Before its August flyby, Galileo will get
another
more-distant look at Tvashtar in May.
It has been said that Io is the heartbeat of the jovian
magnetosphere. The
two giant plumes evidenced in these images may have had
significant effects
on the types, density and distribution of neutral and charged
particles in
the Jupiter system during the joint observations of the system by
Galileo
and Cassini from November 2000 to March 2001.
These Cassini images were acquired on Jan. 2, 2001, except for
the frame at
the far right, which was acquired a day earlier. The Galileo
images were
acquired on Dec. 30 and 31, 2000.Cassini was about 10 million
kilometers (6
million miles) from Io, ten times farther than Galileo.
Cassini is a cooperative project of NASA, the European Space
Agency and the
Italian Space Agency. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory, a division
of the
California Institute of Technology in Pasadena, manages the
Galileo and
Cassini missions for NASA's Office of Space Science, Washington,
D.C.
© 2001 Pole Star Publications Ltd
===========
(4) HIGH-TECH WARFARE COULD LITTER SPACE WITH DEBRIS
From Space.com, 28 March 2001
http://www.space.com/news/spaceagencies/space_war_debris_010328_wg.html
By Charles Aldinger
Reuters News Agency
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- Warfare high above Earth could litter
space with
speeding debris that might rip into commercial satellites and
space
shuttles, the U.S. military's space chief warned on Wednesday.
Air Force Gen. Ralph Eberhart said instant intelligence and
communications
were so important to the United States and other nations that
future enemies
might consider blowing up each other's satellites.
"First and foremost, I'm concerned about the debris in space
and not knowing
what's going to happen once you blow it (a satellite) up,"
with a
projectile, the head of the U.S. Space Command told reporters.
"I have to admit that I would also be concerned about the
threshold that you
cross if you do that..., what it might mean in terms of weapons
in space and
other space activities," the general added.
Eberhart said the military was already tracking some 9,000
orbiting objects,
some as tiny as a fountain pen, and that commercial satellites
and shuttles
were threatened by junk moving at thousands of miles [kilometers]
an hour.
Paint fleck "can ruin your day"
"Even a [speeding] fleck of paint can ruin your day if you
are in the
shuttle," he told reporters.
Eberhart, who heads the North American Aerospace Defense Command
for the
United States and Canada, said the Pentagon was also increasingly
worried
about the ability of China, North Korea, Iran, Iraq and even
"terrorist"
groups and drug cartels to disrupt computers using electronic
"cyber
warfare."
The United States has "become so reliant on our computer
systems -- our
information -- that as we train and exercise and are involved in
contingency
operations we have come to take those capabilities...for
granted," he said.
The United States is in the process of developing a space policy,
including
a decision on whether antisatellite (ASAT) weapons should be used
in the
blackness beyond the atmosphere.
Eberhart said he thinks that destroying another country's
communications or
spy satellites using a weapon launched into space would be
"a last-ditch
option."
"I would much rather use negotiations. I would much rather
interfere with
the uplinks and downlinks, I would much rather...bomb a ground
station,"
Eberhart told reporters.
Copyright 2001, Reuters
=========
(5) COMETS JUST AS HAZARDOUS AS ASTEROIDS
[German translation of recent article in New Scientist about Bill
Napier's
work]
From Christian Gritzner <christian.gritzner@mailbox.tu-dresden.de>
Hi Benny,
I just found this article about cometary impacts in the web. I
wonder where
the citation "Unsummen" (hugh amounts of money) being
invested in detection
activities and emergency plans comes from...???
Best wishes,
Christian
www.yahoo.de, Mittwoch 28.
März 2001, 06:41 Uhr
Kometen für Erde gleich gefährlich wie Asteroiden
(ExpeditionZone) - Beinahe monatlich wird die Anzahl jener
Asteroiden in die
Höhe geschraubt, die
der Erde gefährlich werden könnten. Mehr als 1.100 sind es laut
letztem
Stand. Um mögliche
Gefahren bereits im Vorfeld auszuschalten, investieren
Regierungen Unsummen
in neue Ortungsmöglichkeiten und Gefahrenpläne.
Doch ein britischer Astronom mahnt jetzt zur Vorsicht. Bill
Napier vom
Armagh Observatorium ist der Meinung, dass die von Kometen
ausgehende Gefahr
mindestens genauso hoch sei, momentan aber
weit unterschätzt werde.
"Wir suchen nach einem Bienenschwarm und stehen
möglicherweise bereits auf
jenem Gleis auf dem der Zug kommt", kommentiert Napier
gegenüber New
Scientist.
Zwar seien Kometen (riesige Eisklumpen mit einem langen Schwanz
aus Gas und
Staub) seltener als Asteroiden, doch laut Napier bräuchten sie
die Erde
nicht einmal direkt zu treffen, um eine verheerende Katastrophe
auszulösen.
Zieht ein Komet nahe an der Sonne vorbei, könnte deren Hitze
Milliarden Tonnen von Staub freisetzen.
Passiert dies an der "richtigen" Stelle, so könnte
dieser Staub die
Umlaufbahn der Erde kreuzen und auf sie herunterregnen. Ein
gigantischer
Staubvorhang würde die Sonne auf Jahrtausende hinaus verdunkeln
und so eine
neue Eiszeit auslösen, wie Napier in einer jetzt
veröffentlichten
Studie nachweisen konnte.
Derzeit wissen Astronomen nur von vier Kometen, die mehrere
Hundert
Kilometer Durchmesser besitzen. Doch in der sogenannten
Oort'schen Wolke,
die sich weit über den Orbit des Pluto hinaus befindet, könnten
noch
mindestens 2.000 Objekte ähnlicher Größe lauern.
Zwar kreuzten diese extrem selten das Innere Sonnensystem, doch
falls es
dennoch zu einem unvorhergesehen Besuch kommt, könnte der
dadurch
freigesetzte Staub die Sonne über 10.000 hindurch verdunkeln.
Laut Napier dürfte das zumindest einmal in der Geschichte der
Erde passiert
sein. In den 80er Jahren gesammelte Daten zeigten dabei
auffällig hohe
Konzentrationen an interplanetarischen Staubpartikeln, die von
einem
riesigen Kometen stammen dürften, der vor gut 70.000 Jahren nahe
an der
Sonne verdampfte. Dieses Ereignis koinzidiert dabei mit dem
Beginn der
letzten Eiszeit.
Napier konnte berechnen, dass die Wahrscheinlichkeit für einen
heutigen
"Treffer" bei 1:100.000 liegt. Das ist genau jene
Wahrscheinlichkeit, wie
sie auch von einem Asteroideneinschlag erwartet wird.
Auch David Williams vom Londoner University College zeigt sich
ähnlich
besorgt wie Napier. Williams war Mitglied jenes
Untersuchungsteams, das im
letzten jahr für die britische Regierung eine
Gefahreneinschätzung
erstellte. "Dieser Bereich eröffnet sich erst jetzt langsam
für uns.
Damals stuften wir ihn für unseren Bericht noch als zu
kontroversiell ein."
==========
(6) $50 BILLION FINANCIAL LOSS FROM CATASTOPHES IN 2000
From Insurance Net, 30 March 2001
http://insurancenewsnet.co.uk./article.asp?a=6&id=1318
$50bn financial loss from 2000 catastrophes says Swiss Re
In 2000, catastrophes claimed more than 17 400 lives and caused
overall
financial losses -not counting indirect economic damage - of
almost USD 50
billion. According to Swiss Re's definitive statistics, the
burden on the
insurance industry was comparatively low at USD 10.6 billion.
Among Swiss Re's findings:
* Flood losses totalled USD 2.5 billion
* Technical disasters, such as the explosion at the Mina
Al-ahmadi refinery
in Kuwait, accounted for USD 3.0 billion in losses
* Catastrophe premiums up 16 percent.
Only one loss approaching USD 1 billion
Catastrophe losses cost the insurance industry USD 10.6 billion
in 2000,
compared with USD 32.9 billion in 1999*. Only one event, the
Tokai floods in
Japan, almost reached the billion-dollar mark, which according to
the latest
"sigma" study from Swiss Re explains the sharp contrast
with 1999, when nine
storms and earthquakes each caused losses in excess of one
billion US
dollars. However, the accumulation of storms and earthquakes in
areas with
high concentrations of values in 1999 and their absence in 2000
were purely
random; severe earthquakes have already occurred in January and
February
2001, this time in El Salvador and India. Given that risk factors
still
exist such as increasing population densities, the expected
effects of
climate change, and higher concentrations of values particularly
in zones
exposed to natural hazards, the trend towards higher losses is
expected to
continue.
*All losses are calculated at 2000 prices. "sigma"
includes losses from
natural catastrophes which surpass USD 34 million.
Loss potential caused by floods underestimated
Of the USD 10.6 billion, USD 3.0 billion was due to man-made
disasters and
USD 7.5 billion to natural catastrophes. Floods accounted for a
high
proportion of natural catastrophe losses (USD 2.5 billion),
making 2000 one
of the most expensive years for floods in insurance history,
along with
1993, when Mississippi floods caused huge losses to the insurance
industry.
As a result, the most expensive insurance losses in 2000 were the
result of
floods: the Tokai floods in Japan (USD 990 million) and flooding
in the UK
in the wake of Storm Oratia (USD 747 million) - an indication of
the often
underestimated loss potential of floods.
Costly man-made losses, high overall losses
With insured losses of USD 3.0 billion, technical disasters
remained
significantly below the average seen in the 1990s. Major fires
and
explosions accounted for USD 1.3 billion of the total, aerospace
losses for
USD 1.0 billion and aviation losses for USD 397 million. The
overall
financial loss due to catastrophes - not counting indirect
economic damage -
totalled almost USD 50 billion, three-quarters of which was
accounted for by
nine events, each causing economic damage in excess of USD 1
billion. Eight
of these major losses were caused by natural catastrophes, while
the other
was the consequence of the "I love you" computer virus,
which replicated via
e-mail to paralyse computer networks worldwide within the space
of one day.
In the 351 events recorded by "sigma", more than 17 400
people lost their
lives; the floods in India and Bangladesh in August and September
alone
accounted for at least 1200 fatalities, while the death toll from
those in
southern Africa was 920. The 9600 victims of man-made
catastrophes were
clearly above the average for the past decade; two-thirds of
these victims
resulted from transport disasters on land, at sea and in the air
- a sign of
increasing mobility worldwide.
Premiums for catastrophe reinsurance recovering but still not
covering costs
The CAMARES analysis of 13 important reinsurance markets in
"sigma" showed
that the sustained collapse in catastrophe reinsurance prices
seen since
1994 came to an end in 2000. It was only during the renewals for
2001,
however, that a general rise became apparent. The 16% rise in the
markets
examined therefore signals a trend reversal, though one which
only makes up
for the losses suffered in 1998/99. According to the study,
further price
rises are necessary if catastrophe reinsurers are to cover their
costs in
the long term.
============================
* LETTERS TO THE MODERATOR *
============================
(7) SPACE MATERIAL MYSTERY
From Colin Keay <phcslk@cc.newcastle.edu.au>
Dear Benny:
Here's a nice little mystery. Late yesterday afternoon (Thursday
2001 March
29) I was contacted by a man acting on behalf of a home-owner on
whose roof
an object landed at around midnight AEDT on March 24/25 with
enough force to
wake them up. Next morning the family's children picked up
bits of jet-black crumbly material from near the house and went
onto the
roof to retrieve more. The house is located about 30km from
Newcastle. At
first the owner's family and neighbours thought it all rather a
joke but a
few days later a friend of the owner thought it sensible to get
an opinion
on its origin. Eventually his inquiries led to me and I invited
him to bring
me the sample he held. He did so, with it wrapped in a paper
tissue. I took
one look at it and immediately placed it in a sealable plastic
bag, although
it is likely to be rather contaminated through earlier handling.
The sample is very irregular in shape and approx. 38 x 20 x 8 mm
overall
weighing 0.87 gm. It is jet-black with a few tiny ~< 1 mm
reflective facets.
It is fairly fragile and crumbles readily. There are suggestions
of
striations of about 0.2 - 0.3 mm spacing. A geologist assures me
that it is
not of terrestrial origin. I have contacted Dr Andrew Smith of
ANSTO who
will be happy to analyse it with his accelarator mass
spectrometer, so I'll
take what I can to Sydney on Monday for him to do an elemental
and then
isotope analysis.
In the meantime I contacted the the home-owner last evening and
gave
instructions for collecting as much residue as possible with
least
contamination. Hopefully I'll hear back later today and will
likely travel
to the site tomorrow (Saturday March 31).
If it fell from space its entry fireball must have been only of
moderate
brightness or else there'd have been reports of it. The two
possibilities
are A: cometary origin, or B: space junk. If cometary it could be
what
Ceplecha classes as very low density, but although it looks to be
carbonaceous I see no chondrules. If it is space junk there is an
intriguing
possibility it is from the demise of Mir, about 31 hours earlier.
At the
time of the fall this part of Australia would have been under the
Mir
orbital plane toward the ascending node. We are at lat -32 deg,
Mir
inclination I believe was 51 deg. So the mystery is why the
fragment(s)
remained in space for a further 20-21 orbits after Mir's demise.
So that's where I'm at this morning, Friday, March 30. I will
keep you
posted. It is an amazing coincidence that only two days ago I
attended a
conference at the Police Forensic HQ in Sydney to discuss the
likely origin
of a large block of ice that crashed through the roof and ceiling
of a
house at Harbord, in Sydney on March 6. For my money it came from
an
aircraft, because it was mainly clear and partly transparent. It
will be
analysed.
Colin Keay
University of Newcastle, NSW.
***************************************************************************
* Dr Colin Keay
::::::: ~
~ To achieve anything really *
* Physics Dept
~
:::::
~ worthwhile in research it is *
* Newcastle Univ
~ :::\ | /
~ necessary to go against the *
* NSW, AUSTRALIA 2308 ~
~ - o
- opinions of one's fellows.
*
* phcslk@cc.Newcastle.edu.au
/ | \ ~
"Where the Wind Blows" *
*
www2.hunterlink.net.au/~ddcsk
~
~ ~ - Fred
Hoyle *
***************************************************************************
=============
(8) WHOSE ASTEROID IS WHOSE?
From Andy Nimmo <andy-nimmo@ntlworld.com>
Dear Dr Peiser,
Thank you very much for publishing Mr Gregory Nemitz's response
in CCNet
49/2001 - 28 March 2001 to my earlier point about off-planet
ownership. I
rather think he illustrates and bolsters my point quite well.
First he cites
precedence in Roman law that has no relevance to Chinese, or
other
non-European laws, and thereby is invalid in the context of
present
international, let alone future extra-terrestrial law. Precedence
itself is
not valid in some European courts let alone those in non-European
nations.
Then he points to a letter of his own composition in which he
makes the very
kind of claims I am warning against. He claims he owns Eros and
space to 50
kms around it.
Mr Nemitz's claim appears to be based on the idea that nobody has
made a
previous claim. However, in 1979 it may be assumed that the
United Nations
did just that in their so-called 'Moon Treaty' - even though the
U.S.
Government did not ratify that Treaty, part of it reads:
"Article 1
1. The provisions of this Agreement relating to the moon shall
also
apply to other celestial bodies within the solar system, other
than the
earth, except in so far as specific legal norms enter into force
with
respect to any of these celestial bodies.
2. For the purposes of this Agreement reference to the moon shall
include orbits around or other trajectories to or around
it."
Further, "Article 11
1.The moon and its natural resources are the common heritage of
mankind, which finds its expression in the provisions of this
Agreement and in particular in paragraph 5 or this article."
Paragraph 5 says:
"5. States Parties to this Agreement hereby undertake to
establish
an international regime, including appropriate procedures, to
govern
the exploitation of the natural resources of the moon as such
exploitation is about to become feasible. This provision shall be
implemented in accordance with article 18 of this
Agreement."
"Article 18
Ten years after the entry into force of this Agreement, the
question
of the review of the Agreement shall be included in the
provisional
agenda of the General Assembly of the United Nations in order to
consider, in the light of past application of the Agreement,
whether it
requires revision. However, at any time after the Agreement has
been in
force for five years, the Secretary-General of the United
Nations, as
depository, shall, at the request of one third of the States
Parties to
the Agreement and with the concurrence of the majority of the
States
Parties, convene a conference of the States Parties to review
this
Agreement. A review conference shall also consider the question
of the
implementation of the provisions of article 11, paragraph 5, on
the basis
of the principle referred to in paragraph 1 of that article and
taking into account in particular any relevant technological
developments."
A review was held, and so far as I understand, it was decided to
leave
things as they are at present.
Nevertheless, the fact that the US, USSR, UK, and some other
nations did not
ratify that Treaty doesn't alter the fact that many nations did
do so. For
all of these, this Moon Treaty is the space law that counts. Most
of the
rest did ratify the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, and for them,
that is the law that counts. After the preamble, this begins:
"Article I
The exploration and use of outer space, including the moon and
other
celestial bodies, shall be carried out for the benefit and in the
interests of all countries, irrespective of their degree of
economic or
scientific development, and shall be the province of all mankind.
Outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, shall
be
free for exploration and use by all States without discrimination
of any
kind, on a basis of equality and in accordance with international
law,
and there shall be free access to all areas of celestial bodies.
There shall be freedom of scientific investigation in outer
space,
including the moon and other celestial bodies, and States shall
facilitate
and encourage international co- operation in such
investigation."
Now the US did ratify that so it is US as well as international
law, and
that seems to me to specifically prohibit Mr Nemitz or anybody
else charging
NASA any kind of landing fee for NEAR on Eros. That third
paragraph makes it
clear that there shall be 'free access'. Accordingly,
it seems that Mr Nemitz's claim is not only invalid under
international law,
but also under US law.
If Mt Nemitz is correct in his assertion that the Archimedes
Institute is
not selling parts of the Moon, then I am very happy to apologize
to them,
but feel that it is only right to warn them that there are crooks
around
using their registrations as the basis for that very confidence
trick. The best way for this to be stamped out would be for them
to cease to
register claims to territory over which no person, company nor
nation
presently has any valid claim. Neither Roman nor US law is
relevant here, as
neither the Romans nor the US own all of this or any other world.
Nothing Mr Nemitz has said in any way alters my point "it
must be in our
interest to establish that nobody owns anything they are not
settling on and
don't have regular vehicles visiting, otherwise Spaceguard may
find itself
in trouble in court if it - or others supported by it - try to
deflect some
dangerous body some lunatic claims he owns." What we need to
do is to get
both the Outer Space Treaty and the Moon Treaty replaced by a new
and more
sensible one that we can all agree on.
Best wishes, Andy Nimmo.
==============
(9) ICE AGE REBOUND
From Hermann Burchard <burchar@mail.math.okstate.edu>
Dear Benny,
today on CCNet Tom Recer reports in an AP item on how
"rebounding from the
weight of ice sheets that depressed the land during the ice age,
Scandinavia
has risen more than a half-mile in the past 20,000 years". A
similar rebound
for Canada is mentioned. Around Hudson Bay ancient shore
lines are now as much as 900 feet above sea level.
These northern lands will continue to rise. Clearly, this will
make higher
elevations such as northern Labrador more prone to accumulate
glacial ice in
winters in the future. Another ice age will begin glaciers in
Canada and
Scandinavia as once again descend from the hills. This
mechanism offers an explanation for periodic build-up of northern
hemisphere
glaciation. As glacial ice accumulates slowly under the dry
climate
conditions, there would be a slow onset of each ice age. Some
mechanism to
keep the ice from building up indefinitely (before all oceans
run dry) is required. A sudden collapse of ice shields to end
each cycle has
been suggested as being due to instability or cometary impact.
The overall
model is one of a nonlinear not-quite-harmonic oscillator.
In their 27 March article on CCNet fellow mathematicians Hoyle
&
Wickramasinghe present another theory of glacial cycling:
"Cycles of
glaciation with an average period of ~100kyr are mediated by
cometary
bolides." The reasoning is that "the average frequency
of [comet fragment
impact] per 100kyr is remarkably close to the mean length of the
glacial
cycle." However, these 100 Ka cycles are actually
surprisingly regular, a
fact that could not be explained by random-cycle impact
causation.
A 100 Ka glacial cycle pattern was found by DSDP data based on
oxygen
isotopes sensitive to temperature in buried marine clam shells.
The graphs
of ice accumulation show precisely this slow upramping and sudden
end, with
the ramps combining to an overall sawtooth pattern. Frequently
the rising
ramps of the sawteeth exhibit breaks, without, however, the
remarkably
regular cycle length of 100 Ka being seriously disturbed. The
breaks are
likely explained by cometary impacts temporarily warming the
oceans as
suggested by Hoyle & Wickramasinghe, whose main argument has
to do with a
cold ocean causing global cooling. The latter fact indeed may
require more
than rising mountain tops in the North. They mention the short
duration of
"interglacials lasting for about 10,000 years or less",
consistent with a
rebound of mountain heights (at the rates reported in the AP
item) and the
resulting renewal of glaciers. It seems likely that all of these
things work
together.
Best regards.
Hermann Burchard
============
* ABSTACTS *
============
(10) A NEW ASTROPHYSICAL SETTING FOR CHONDRULE FORMATION
Krot AN, Meibom A, Russell SS, Alexander CMO, Jeffries TE, Keil
K: A new
astrophysical setting for chondrule formation. SCIENCE 291:
(5509)
1776-1779 MAR 2 2001
Chondrules in the metal-rich meteorites Hammadah al Hamra 237 and
QUE 94411
have recorded highly energetic thermal events that resulted in
complete
vaporization of a dusty region of the solar nebula (dust/gas
ratio of about
10 to 50 times solar). These chondrules formed under oxidizing
conditions
before condensation of iron-nickel metal, at temperatures greater
than or
equal to 1500 K, and were isolated from the cooling gas before
condensation
of moderately volatile elements such as manganese, sodium,
potassium. and
sulfur. This astrophysical environment is fundamentally different
from
conventional models for chondrule formation by localized, brief,
repetitive
heating events that resulted in incomplete melting of solid
precursors
initially residing at ambient temperatures below approximately
650 K.
Addresses:
Krot AN, Univ Hawaii Manoa, Sch Ocean & Earth Sci &
Technol, Hawaii Inst
Geophys & Planetol, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA.
Univ Hawaii Manoa, Sch Ocean & Earth Sci & Technol,
Hawaii Inst Geophys &
Planetol, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA.
Stanford Univ, Stanford, CA 94305 USA.
Nat Hist Museum, Dept Mineral, London SW7 5BD, England.
Carnegie Inst Washington, Dept Terr Magnetism, Washington, DC
20015 USA.
Copyright © 2001 Institute for Scientific Information
==========
(11) THE ORIGINS OF CHONDRULES
Shu FH, Shang H, Gounelle M, Glassgold AE, Lee T: The origin of
chondrules
and refractory inclusions in chondritic meteorites ASTROPHYSICAL
JOURNAL
548: (2) 1029-1050, Part 1 FEB 20 2001
Examples of calcium-aluminum-rich inclusions (CAIs) surrounded by
thick
chondrule mantles have been found in chondritic meteorites and
cast doubt on
the conventional belief that CAIs and chondrules possessed
different
spacetime origins in the primitive solar nebula. We study
specific processes
by which such objects, and the more common ordinary CAIs and
chondrules,
might have formed by flare heating of primitive rocks interior to
the inner
edge of a gaseous accretion disk that has been truncated by
magnetized
funnel flow onto the central proto-Sun. Motivated by the
appearance of the
chains of Herbig-Haro knots that define collimated optical jets
from many
young stellar objects (YSOs), we adopt the model of a fluctuating
X-wind,
where the inner edge of the solar nebula undergoes periodic
radial
excursions on a timescale of similar to 30 yr, perhaps in
response to
protosolar magnetic cycles. Flares induced by the stressing of
magnetic
fields threading both the star and the inner edge of the
fluctuating disk
melt or partially melt solids in the transition zone between the
base of the
funnel flow and the reconnection ring, and in the reconnection
ring itself.
The rock melts stick when they collide at low velocities. Surface
tension
pulls the melt aggregate into a quasi-spherical core/mantle
structure, where
the core consists mainly of refractories and the mantle mainly of
moderate
volatiles. Orbital drift of rocks past the inner edge of the disk
or infall
of large objects from the funnel flow replaces the steady loss of
material
by the plasma drag of the coronal gas that corotates with the
stellar
magnetosphere. In quasi-steady state, agglomeration of molten or
heat-softened rocks leads to a differential size-distribution in
radius R
proportional to R(-3)e(-Lt)/(tLR), where t(L) similar to yr is
the drift
time of an object of fiducial radius L = 1 cm and t is the time
since the
last inward excursion of the base of the funnel flow and X-wind.
Thus,
during the similar to 30 yr interval between successive flushing
of the
reconnection ring, flash-heated and irradiated rocks have a
chance to grow
to millimeter and centimeter sizes. The evaporation of the
moderately
volatile mantles above large refractory cores, or the dissolving
of small
refractory cores inside thick ferromagnesian mantles before
launch, plus
extended heating in the X-wind produce the CAIs or chondrules
that end up at
planetary distances in the parent bodies of chondritic
meteorites.
Addresses:
Shu FH, Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Astron, 601 Campbell Hall,
Berkeley, CA
94720 USA.
Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Astron, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.
Acad Sinica, Inst Astron & Astrophys, Taipei 115, Taiwan.
Ctr Spectrometrie Nucl & Spectrometrie Masse, F-91405 Orsay,
France.
NYU, Dept Phys, New York, NY 10003 USA.
Acad Sinica, Inst Earth Sci, Taipei 115, Taiwan.
Copyright © 2001 Institute for Scientific Information
=======
(12) AND FINALLY: ARMAGEDDAPHOBIA
From Matthew Genge <M.Genge@nhm.ac.uk>
Benny,
Duncan Steel asked if there was a distinct word to describe the
fear of
dying due to an asteroid or comet impact? It is a time honoured
tradition
that scientists are able to just make up a new word if one isn't
available,
its one of the few perks of the job. So what about
ARMAGEDDAPHOBIA - the fear of large impacts (or alternatively the
fear that
we'd actually use Bruce Willis as the Earth's last line of
defense).
Just a thought,
Matt Genge
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