PLEASE NOTE:
*
CCNet TERRA 18/2003 - 23 April 2003
----------------------------------
"Today Americans celebrate
our 33rd Earth Day. Since the early
1970s we've seen great
environmental progress. The air and water
are cleaner and people, especially
young people, are more
environmentally sensitive. While
serious problems remain, the easy
fruit has been picked."
--John A. Baden, Tech Central Station, 22 April 2003
(1) EARTH DAY VICTORY
Tech Central Station, 22 April 2003
(2) MORE STUDIES REBUFF U.S. NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL CONCERNS
ABOUT
HUMAN-INDUCED ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE
CO2 Science Magazine, 23 April 2003
(3) COPING WITH HEAT IN A WARMING WORLD
CO2 Science Magazine, 23 April 2003
(4) IN SEARCH OF THE ELUSIVE SOLAR-CLIMATE CONNECTION
CO2 Science Magazine, 16 April 2003
(5) MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD AND NEW WORLD DROUGHTS
Kevin O. Pope <kpope@starband.net>
(6) AND FINALLY: WHAT EVANGELICAL ENVIRONMENTALISTS DO NOT KNOW
ABOUT
ECONOMICS
Ludwig von Mises Institute, 22 April 2003
==============
(1) EARTH DAY VICTORY
>From Tech Central Station, 22 April 2003
http://www.techcentralstation.com/1051/envirowrapper.jsp?PID=1051-450&CID=1051-042203B
By John A. Baden
Today Americans celebrate our 33rd Earth Day. Since the early
1970s
we've seen great environmental progress. The air and water are
cleaner
and people, especially young people, are more environmentally
sensitive.
While serious problems remain, the easy fruit has been picked.
Americans
now confront more subtle and contentious environmental issues.
We are, however, well prepared to deal with them. Our science has
improved dramatically. We have cause-and-effect models and much
better
measures of impacts. Further, our understanding of
human-environmental
relations has advanced. Here are a few certainties.
First, we understand that education and responsible prosperity
foster
environmental sensitivity. Hungry folks don't have the luxury of
investing in the preservation of endangered songbirds. Second, we
recognize that command-and-control regulations have serious
limitations
and are often grossly counterproductive and inefficient. Third,
we have
witnessed the success of public but nongovernmental organizations
ranging from the international Nature Conservancy and Ducks
Unlimited to
thousands of local groups such as the Gallatin Valley Land Trust.
We've
come a long way since the first Earth Day.
Ecotopia, however, remains elusive. It always will. That problem
is
inherent to the nature of things. Here's one reason.
Environmental
issues are unique in the following respect: all conjoin
technical,
scientific complexity with high emotional loading. No other
policy arena
consistently labors under this twin burden. Rarely are the
problems and
solutions obvious and easy.
We have successfully confronted significant environmental
problems such
as lead. But the professional environmental movement has strong
incentives to portray environmental threats in apocalyptic terms.
At
times it employs pseudoscience to achieve its goals. This tactic
is
counterproductive. It diverts attention and scarce resources from
serious problems. The orchestrated scare surrounding Three Mile
Island
is illustrative.
Last month the respected journal Environmental Health
Perspectives
published a 20-year follow-up study of over 23,000 people living
near
the Three Mile Island (TMI) nuclear plant. Researchers looked at
causes
of death from heart disease and cancers, including those known to
be
sensitive to radiation effects such as bronchial, breast, blood,
and
central nervous system cancers. It found no significant increase
in
cancer deaths among residents.
Both the U.S. Department of Energy and the Pennsylvania
Department of
Environmental Resources tested hundreds of air samples in the
vicinity
of TMI shortly after the accident. They discovered only average
levels
of radioactivity. University of Pittsburgh professor Bernard
Cohen
asserted that "the average person living near Three Mile
Island received
as much extra radiation from that accident as he would get from a
one-week visit to Denver."
The late astronomer Carl Sagan wrote The Demon-Haunted World:
Science as
a Candle in the Dark to rouse us from our neglect of science.
Sagan
wondered why so many people embrace the sort of pseudoscience
associated
with New Age beliefs. Widespread scientific illiteracy and a
dearth of
critical thinking are "perilous and foolhardy," and
that's obviously
true. Stick to the facts, Sagan tells us, "There are wonders
enough out
there without our inventing any."
Harvard astrophysics professor and TCS co-host Sallie Baliunas
provides
an example. Europe enjoyed a warm climate between the 9th and
12th
centuries, the time when the Vikings settled Greenland (when it
was
actually green). But by the 14th century the Little Ice Age had
emerged.
"One severe frost in 1626 froze lakes and rivers, decimated
crops and
wild vegetation...." At the time this was
"unnatural." The cause -
witchery. The solution - burn "witches," 2000 in
Cologne, Germany alone.
The environmental movement is far more sophisticated today than
in 1970.
It is recognizing that "crisis entrepreneurs" and
hysterical
environmentalism ultimately backfire. Greenpeace International's
mission
against chlorine is an excellent example. Their anti-chlorine
campaign
led Peru to reduce the chlorine it added to its water supply. The
result? A cholera epidemic swept through insufficiently
chlorinated
water supplies, taking far more lives than the chlorine ban could
possibly have saved.
Sincere and sensible environmentalists shun such chicanery.
Instead,
they promote policies based on sound science and economics, not
the
machinations of crisis entrepreneurs. This is a victory to
celebrate on
Earth Day.
John A. Baden, Ph.D., is chairman of the Foundation for Research
on
Economics and the Environment (FREE) and Gallatin Writers, Inc.
Both are
based in Bozeman.
Copyright 2003, Tech Central Station
===============
(2) MORE STUDIES REBUFF U.S. NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL CONCERNS
ABOUT
HUMAN-INDUCED ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE
>From CO2 Science Magazine, 23 April 2003
http://www.co2science.org/edit/v6_edit/v6n17edit.htm
In our Editorial of 2 April 2003, we challenged the contention of
Alley et al. (2003) that "human forcing of climate change is
increasing the probability of large, abrupt events," basing
our case primarily on real-world observations that clearly
suggest otherwise, but additionally citing the computer modeling
study of Rind et al. (2001) that also suggests otherwise.
Here, we review still more modeling and observational studies
that challenge Alley et al.'s contention.
To recapitulate Alley et al.'s position on this subject, they
write in their U.S. National Research Council report (Alley et
al., 2002) of "large, abrupt climate changes" of
"as much as 10°C change in 10 years," stating that
these changes "can occur when gradual causes push the earth
system across a *threshold* [our italics]." They
further contend that "human activities could trigger abrupt
climate change," stating that "warming and the
associated changes in the hydrological cycle constitute a
*threshold* [our italics] for the THC [thermohaline
circulation]" of the world's oceans. "Once reduced, the
THC is more susceptible to perturbations," they claim,"
also contending that "very close to a *threshold* [our
italics], the evolution of the THC loses predictability
altogether."
The THC threshold that has been most discussed within this
context is the amount of freshwater delivered to the North
Atlantic Ocean (supplied by increased Arctic river discharge
resulting from the intensified hydrologic cycle presumed to
accompany CO2-induced global warming) plus meltwater from
Greenland (presumed to result directly from rising temperatures)
that has the presumed power to slow, or even stop, North Atlantic
Deep Water (NADW) formation, which is believed by many to be one
of the main driving forces of the THC that redistributes heat
around the world and is thought to bring considerable warmth to
Europe. If this "threshold hypothesis" and the more
basic THC concept are correct, some as-yet-unspecified degree of
global warming could conceivably induce a rapid regional or
hemispheric cooling, which according to Alley et al. may have the
potential to plunge much of the world into a global deep freeze
ten times worse than the Little Ice Age that preceded the Modern
Warm Period.
In a significant theoretical refutation of this tortured
thinking, Rind et al. (2001) conducted several computer-model
sensitivity analyses of this scenario, concluding that (1) NADW
formation "decreases linearly with the volume of fresh water
added," (2) the decrease occurs "without any obvious
threshold effects," and (3) "the effect is not
rapid," all of which findings fly in the face of Alley et
al.'s prognostications.
The newest modeling study of relevance to Alley et al.'s
human-induced abrupt climate change threshold hypothesis is that
of Seidov and Haupt (2003), who begin their analysis by noting
that the "asymmetry of the Atlantic and Pacific sea surface
salinity (SSS) is recognized as an important element of the
global ocean thermohaline circulation." Nevertheless,
they report that this aspect of the THC has received little
attention from the climate-science research community. Therefore,
building upon their own earlier work on the subject (Seidov and
Haupt, 2002), which focuses on the role of Atlantic and Pacific
sea surface salinity, they performed a number of sensitivity
experiments with the ocean model of the Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory. These experiments showed, in their words,
that "Atlantic-Pacific SSS asymmetry is one of the most
critical elements for maintaining the global ocean
conveyor," and, hence, that "high-latitudinal
freshwater impacts, as a mechanism of altering global
thermohaline circulation [i.e., the hypothesis of Alley et al.],
may be less effective than inter-basin freshwater
communications."
Other studies conclude much the same thing, but they arrive at
this conclusion from a very different conceptual direction.
Munk and Wunsch (1998), Wunsch (2000) and Wunsch (2002), for
example, all conclude, on the basis of fundamental theoretical
considerations, that the THC is sustained primarily by the work
of the wind and secondarily by tidal forcing. So basic are
these considerations, in fact, that Wunsch (2000) categorically
states that "there cannot be a primarily convectively driven
circulation of any significance."
In further explaining this fact, Wunsch (2002) notes that
"both in models and the real ocean, surface buoyancy
boundary conditions strongly influence the transport of heat and
salt," acknowledging the matters upon which Alley et al. and
Seidov and Haupt have focused their attention, but he emphasizes
that "these boundary conditions do not actually drive the
circulation," noting again that "for past or future
climates, the quantity of first-order importance is the nature of
the wind field."
Although Munk and Wunsch's thoughts may seem a bit esoteric, the
energy requirements of their more basic view of the subject have
been observationally verified by the work of Egbert and Ray
(2000), while other supporting evidence has been supplied by
Berger and von Rad (2002). Hence, in view of the fact that the
mass flux of the THC is primarily a creature of wind and tide,
there is no valid reason to even entertain the climate-alarmist
speculations that have been spawned by the reviews of Alley et
al., much less succumb to the cacophony of highly irrational
calls to forsake the energy source that has produced the marvels
of the modern world.
Sherwood, Keith and Craig Idso
References
Alley, R.B., Marotzke, J., Nordhaus, W.D., Overpeck, J.T.,
Peteet, D.M., Pielke Jr., R.A., Pierrehumbert, R.T., Rhines,
P.B., Stocker, T.F., Talley, L.D. and Wallace, J.M.
2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises.
National Research Council, National Academy Press, Washington,
DC.
Alley, R.B., Marotzke, J., Nordhaus, W.D., Overpeck, J.T.,
Peteet, D.M., Pielke Jr., R.A., Pierrehumbert, R.T., Rhines,
P.B., Stocker, T.F., Talley, L.D. and Wallace, J.M.
2003. Abrupt climate change. Science 299: 2005-2010.
Berger, W.H. and von Rad, U. 2002. Decadal to
millennial cyclicity in varves and turbidites from the Arabian
Sea: hypothesis of tidal origin. Global and Planetary
Change 34: 313-325.
Egbert, G.D. and Ray, R.D. 2000. Significant
dissipation of tidal energy in the deep ocean inferred from
satellite altimeter data. Nature 405: 775-778.
Munk, W.H. and Wunsch, C. 1998. Abyssal recipes II:
Energetics of tidal and wind mixing. Deep-Sea Research 45:
1977-2010.
Rind, D., deMenocal, P., Russell, G., Sheth, S., Collins, D.,
Schmidt, G. and Teller, J. 2001. Effects of glacial
meltwater in the GISS coupled atmosphere-ocean model. I. North
Atlantic Deep Water response. Journal of Geophysical
Research 106: 27,335-27,353.
Seidov, D. and Haupt, B.J. 2002. On the role of
inter-basin surface salinity contrasts in global ocean
circulation. Geophysical Research Letters 29:
10.1029/2002GL014813.
Seidov D. and Haupt, B.J. 2003. Freshwater
teleconnections and ocean thermohaline circulation.
Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10.1029/2002GL016564.
Wunsch, C. 2000. Moon, tides and climate.
Nature 405: 743-744.
Wunsch, C. 2002. What is the thermohaline
circulation? Science 298: 1179-1181.
Copyright © 2003. Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and
Global Change
===============
(3) COPING WITH HEAT IN A WARMING WORLD
>From CO2 Science Magazine, 23 April 2003
http://www.co2science.org/journal/2003/v6n17c1.htm
Reference
Donaldson, G.C., Keatinge, W.R. and Nayha, S. 2003.
Changes in summer
temperature and heat-related mortality since 1971 in North
Carolina,
South Finland, and Southeast England. Environmental
Research 91: 1-7.
What was done
For three areas of the world -- (1) North Carolina, USA, (2)
South
Finland, comprising all of Finland except the northern provinces
of Oulu
and Lapland, and (3) Southeast England, comprising Greater
London,
Essex, Kent, Sussex, Hampshire, Surrey, Berkshire, Oxfordshire,
Buckinghamshire and Bedfordshire -- the authors determined the
mean
daily May-August 3°C temperature band in which deaths of people
aged 55
and above were at a minimum. Then they compared heat- and
cold-related
deaths that occurred at temperatures above and below this optimum
temperature interval for each region, after which they determined
how
heat-related deaths in the three areas changed between1971 and
1997 in
response to the 1.0°C temperature rise that was experienced in
North
Carolina over this period (from an initial temperature of
23.5°C), the
2.1°C temperature rise experienced in Southeast England (from an
initial
temperature of 14.9°C), and the unchanging 13.5°C temperature
of South
Finland.
What was learned
First, it was determined that the 3°C temperature band at which
mortality was at its local minimum was lowest for the coolest
region
(South Finland), highest for the warmest region (North Carolina),
and in
between for the "in between" region (Southeast
England), which suggests
that the populations of the three regions were somewhat
acclimated to
their respective thermal climates. Second, for each region
it was
determined that cold-related mortality, expressed as excess
mortality at
temperatures below the 3°C temperature band at which mortality
was at
its local minimum, was greater than heat-related mortality,
expressed as
excess mortality at temperatures above the 3°C temperature band
at which
mortality was at its local minimum.
As for the third aspect of the study, i.e., changes in
heat-related
mortality from 1971 to 1997, it was determined that in the
coldest of
the three regions (South Finland, where there was no change in
temperature over the study period), heat-related deaths per
million
inhabitants in the 55-and-above age group declined from 382 to
99. In
somewhat warmer Southeast England, however, where it warmed by a
whopping 2.1°C over the study period, heat-related deaths per
million of
the at-risk age cohort still declined, but this time from only
111 to
108. Last of all, in the warmest of the three regions
(North Carolina,
where mean daily May-August temperature rose by 1.0°C over the
study
period), corresponding heat-related deaths also fell, and this
time from
228 to a mere 16 per million.
What it means
First of all, people can adapt to both warmer and cooler climates
to
some degree. Beyond that, however, local cooling tends to produce
many
more deaths than local warming in all three of the areas studied,
as has
also been demonstrated to be the case in a number of other
locations
around the world [see Mortality (Cold Weather) in our Subject
Index]. As
for the dramatic decline in the number of heat-related deaths
over a
period of warming in the hottest area of this specific study
(North
Carolina), the authors attribute this phenomenon to "the
increase of air
conditioning in the South Atlantic region of the U.S.A.,"
where they
note that "the percentage of households with some form of
air
conditioning in that region rose from 57% in 1978 to 72% in
1997." With
respect to the declining heat-related deaths in the other two
regions,
they say "the explanation is likely to lie in the fact that
both regions
shared with North Carolina an increase in prosperity, which could
be
expected to increase opportunities for avoiding heat
stress."
In summary, cold kills far more people than heat; and prosperity
brings
with it an enhanced ability to protect oneself even further from
the
stress of high temperatures.
Copyright © 2003. Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and
Global Change
===============
(4) IN SEARCH OF THE ELUSIVE SOLAR-CLIMATE CONNECTION
>From CO2 Science Magazine, 16 April 2003
http://www.co2science.org/journal/2003/v6n16c3.htm
Reference
Thejll, P. Christiansen, B. and Gleisner, H. 2003. On
correlations
between the North Atlantic Oscillation, geopotential heights, and
geomagnetic activity. Geophysical Research Letters 30:
10.1029/2002GL016598.
Background The authors note that "apparent relations between
solar
activity, or parameters closely related to solar activity, and
climate
data have often been reported," citing the work of Herman
and Goldberg
(1978), Pittock (1983), Hoyt and Schatten (1997) and van Loon and
Labitzke (2000). Noting further that a substantial portion
of Northern
Hemispheric climate variability is associated with the North
Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO), as described by Hurrell et al. (2001), they
report
that the activity of the NAO itself has been found to be related
to
various solar parameters (Bucha and Bucha, 1998; Boberg and
Lundstedt,
2002; Kodera, 2002). Hence, they probe these intriguing
relationships
still further.
What was done
The authors investigated various spatial and temporal
relationships
among a number of different parameters: the geomagnetic index
(Ap), the
NAO, stratospheric geopotential height and sea level pressure.
What was learned
The authors report that "significant correlations between Ap
and
sea-level pressures and between Ap and stratospheric geopotential
heights are found for the period 1973-2000," but that
"for the period
1949-1972 no significant correlations are found at the surface
while
significant correlations still are found in the
stratosphere." By using
"Monte Carlo simulations of the[ir] statistical procedures
applied to
suitable surrogate data," they also conclude that these
correlations are
due to the existence of a "real physical link."
In the 1973-2000
period, they also note that only the winter season series are
significantly correlated, which they say "is consistent with
the notion
that the solar-climate link works through the stratosphere."
What it means
The authors say their findings may be explained in two different
ways:
either the influence of the sun increased through time, reaching
a
strong enough level in the 1970s to finally make the correlations
they
studied become statistically significant, or the state of the
atmosphere
changed in the 1970s, so that it became more sensitive to the
solar
influence than it was before that time. Their findings also
strengthen
the case for solar-induced perturbations being propagated
downward from
the stratosphere to the troposphere (Hartley et al., 1998;
Carslaw et
al., 2002). Hence, although unable to identify the precise nature
of
the physical linkage that must exist between solar activity and
climate
change, the authors were able to push the pertinent science just
a
little bit closer to the day when that elusive goal will finally
be
achieved.
References
Boberg, F. and Lundstedt, H. 2002. Solar wind variations related
to
fluctuations of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Geophysical
Research
Letters 29: 10.1029/2002GL014903.
Bucha, V. and Bucha Jr., V. 1998. Geomagnetic forcing of changes
in
climate and in the atmospheric circulation. Journal of
Atmospheric and
Terrestrial Physics 60: 145-169.
Carslaw, K.S., Harrizon, R.G. and Kirkby, J. 2002. Cosmic rays,
clouds,
and climate. Science 298: 1732-1737.
Hartley, D.E., Villarin, J.T., Black, R.X. and Davis, C.A. 1998.
A new
perspective on the dynamical link between the stratosphere and
troposphere. Nature 391: 471-474.
Herman, J.R. and Goldberg, R.A. 1978. Sun, Weather,
and Climate. NASA
Special Publication SP-426360.
Hoyt, D.V. and Schatten, K.H. 1997. The Role of the
Sun in Climate
Change. Oxford University Press, New York, NY.
Kodera, K. 2002. Solar cycle modulation of the North Atlantic
Oscillation: Implication in the spatial structure of the NAO.
Geophysical Research Letters 29: 10.1029/2001GL014557.
Pittock, A.B. 1983. Solar variability, weather and climate: An
update.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 109: 23-55.
van Loon, H. and Labitzke, K. 2000. The influence of the 11-year
solar
cycle on the stratosphere below 30 km: A review. Space Science
Reviews
94: 259-278.
Copyright © 2003. Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide
and Global
Change
============================
* LETTERS TO THE MODERATOR *
============================
(5) MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD AND NEW WORLD DROUGHTS
>From Kevin O. Pope <kpope@starband.net>
Dear Benny,
In my earlier comment on CNNet about the Medieval Warm Period and
major
New World droughts I did not say that these droughts were
simultaneous or
that they were "driven" by the Medieval Period warming
as your reply
suggests. The Medieval Warm Period was not a single abrupt event,
but
spanned hundreds of years. Stott's comment in CCNet, to
which I was
replying, gives the dates 800-1300 AD for the Medieval Warm
Period, which
encompasses the dates you provide for the Maya, Tiwanaku, and
Anasazi
droughts. My point was not that there was a single major drought
in the
New World, only that this extended period of warming and
climatic "amelioration" in Europe included episodes of
catastrophic
drought and cultural disruption in at least four known regions of
the New
World. The fact that droughts were a reoccurring event in the
Yucatan,
linked to a solar cycle of 208 years, does not detract from the
fact that
the Maya Terminal Classic Period droughts in the 9th and 10th
century AD
were the most severe of the last 3,500 years (e.g., Curtis et al.
1996,
Quaternary Research 46: 37-47), and perhaps the last 7,000 years
(Hodell
et al., 1995, Science 375: 391-394). Similar ~200 yr. drought
cycles have
been recorded in California (Ingram et al., 1996, Geology
24:331-334),
but are likewise of a much smaller magnitude compared to the
Medieval
Warm Period droughts.
I would agree that it is important to know how climatic warming
in
Europe may be linked to droughts in such far away places as
California,
New Mexico, Yucatan, and Bolivia, but we can only speculate at
this
time. Brenner et al. (2001, in Interhemisphere Climate Linkages,
V.
Markraf, ed., pp. 87-103, Academic Press, NY) note that solar
forcing in
the Caribbean and Andes in this time period are out of phase,
thus
direct solar forcing seems an unlikely cause. Recent studies in
coastal
California point to drought linkages with shifts in atmospheric
circulation, resulting in shifts in the California Current and
the
northward deflection of storms (e.g., Roark et al. 2003, Geology
31:379-382). This same study suggests that this change in
atmospheric
circulation may have links to the North Atlantic (and hence to
Northwest
Europe??), since it correlates with a peak in ice accumulation in
Greenland. Perhaps all we can say at this time is that the
Medieval
Warm Period, and subsequent transition into the Little Ice Age,
encompasses a time when there were major climatic changes that
brought
some of the most extreme (warm-cold, wet-dry) conditions of the
Middle
to Late Holocene. The argument over whether or not the Medieval
Warm
Period was warmer or colder than today misses the main message -
which
is that the global response to this "warm" period was
exceedingly
complex. These complexities caution against simple predictions of
the
global impact of a warming climate.
Cheers,
Kevin
Kevin O. Pope
Geo Eco Arc Research
Maryland, USA
================
(6) AND FINALLY: WHAT EVANGELICAL ENVIRONMENTALISTS DO NOT KNOW
ABOUT
ECONOMICS
>From Ludwig von Mises Institute, 22 April 2003
http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=1206
Recently, evangelicals have been mimicking the secular
environmentalists' assault on the market economy. Pollution,
deforestation, endangered and extinct species, food shortages,
and
global warming are all, they say, evidence of our failure to be
good
stewards over creation. Overconsumption, particularly in the
industrialized parts of the world, is responsible, they say.
Personal
frugality, coupled with government regulation to prod along the
unrepentant SUV-driving glutton, is the answer. Late last year,
the
Evangelical Environmental Network launched its "What Would
Jesus Drive"
campaign, which associated low gas mileage with immorality and
advocated
stricter government fuel economy regulations.
There is a great deal of activity on the environmental front, and
it is
perhaps the most vigorous attack on markets that evangelicals
have
launched in the last twenty years. This attack is not coming from
Gaia
worshiping cultists or fringe groups within the churches. Major
Protestant denominations, and some groups of Roman Catholics,
have
issued documents stating that caring for creation is inconsistent
with a
market economy. Of course, many of these groups have had a
statist
social policy for the better part of a century, so antimarket
environmentalism may be viewed as a variation on the same old
theme...
FULL ARTICLE at http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=1206
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