PLEASE NOTE:
*
CCNet 55/2002 - 30 April 2002
-----------------------------
"Mr. Speaker, today I am introducing the Charles Pete Conrad
Astronomy Award Act. This act is intended to encourage amateur
astronomers
to discover new and attract previously identified asteroids and
other
heavenly bodies, particularly those that threaten a close
approach to
the Earth. This act is named after the legendary pilot,
astronomer and space
entrepreneur, Pete Conrad, who I was honored to know. He was a
constituent
of mine as well. Unfortunately, he passed away after a tragic
motorcycle accident just last year. Charles Pete Conrad made
history and
today in his honor and in his memory I am introducing a bill that
could
help protect the United States of America and, yes, the entire
world. Pete
Conrad more than anything else was a patriot who loved his
country and felt
that space would provide peace and prosperity for all of human
kind."
--Dana Rohrabacher, House of Representatives, 25 April 2002
(1) THE PETE CONRAD AWARDS BILL: U.S. TO HONOUR NEO ACTIVITIES OF
AMATEUR
ASTRONOMERS
House of Representatives - April 25, 2002)
(2) NASA KEEPS EYE ON SPACE JUNK
New Scientist, 29 April 2002
(3) MYSTERY METEORITE WITH A MOLTEN PAST
Ron Baalke <baalke@jpl.nasa.gov>
(4) EVENING FIREBALL CAPTURED ON FILM
ADVERTISER (AUSTRALIA) 29th April 2002
(5) MACE 2002: CALL FOR CONTRIBUTIONS
Reiner M. Stoss <rstoss@hrz1.hrz.tu-darmstadt.de>
(6) 'FORECASTING' SPACE WEATHER
Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>
(7) PROTEST AGAINST CALL FOR EUROPEAN BOYCOTT OF ACADEMIC AND
CULTURAL TIES
WITH ISRAEL
http://euroisrael.huji.ac.il/
(8) IN CASE OF AN IMPENDING IMPACT - WHEN IS THE TIME TO ACT?
Yvan Dutil <yvan.r.dutil@ca.abb.com>
(9) ANNALS OF THE CHOSUN DYNASTY
Phillip Clapham <carolflip@care4free.net>
(10) AND FINALLY: 'THATCHERITE' FISH VOTE WITH THEIR FINS
Ananova, 30 April 2002
===========
(1) THE PETE CONRAD AWARDS BILL: U.S. TO HONOUR NEO ACTIVITIES OF
AMATEUR
ASTRONOMERS
H.R.4613
Sponsor: Rep Rohrabacher, Dana (introduced 4/25/2002)
Latest Major Action: 4/25/2002 Referred to House committee.
Latest
Status: Referred to the House Committee on House Administration.
Title: To authorize the Board of Regents of the Smithsonian
Institution to
establish an awards program in honor of Charles "Pete"
Conrad, astronaut and
space scientist, for recognizing the discoveries made by
amateur nomers of
asteroids with near-Earth orbit trajectories.
PETE CONRAD AWARDS BILL -- (House of Representatives - April 25,
2002)
[Page: H1669] GPO's PDF
http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getpage.cgi?dbname=2002_record&page=H1669&position=all
---
The SPEAKER pro tempore (Mr. Simpson). Under a previous order of
the House,
the gentleman from California (Mr. Rohrabacher) is recognized for
5 minutes.
Mr. ROHRABACHER. Mr. Speaker, today I am introducing the Charles
Pete Conrad
Astronomy Award Act. This act is intended to encourage amateur
astronomers
to discover new and attract previously identified asteroids and
other
heavenly bodies, particularly those that threaten a close
approach to the
Earth. This act is named after the legendary pilot, astronomer
and space
entrepreneur, Pete Conrad, who I was honored to know. He was a
constituent
of mine as well. Unfortunately, he passed away after a tragic
motorcycle
accident just last year. Charles Pete Conrad made history and
today in his
honor and in his memory I am introducing a bill that could help
protect the
United States of America and, yes, the entire world.
Pete Conrad more than anything else was a patriot who loved his
country and
felt that space would provide peace and prosperity for all of
human kind.
This act contains three categories of awards.
The first category is an award for the amateur astronomer who
discovers the
largest astroid crossing in near-Earth orbit.
The second category, an award to an amateur astronomer for
discovering
asteroids using information derived from professional sources and
locating
newly discovered asteroids.
The third category, an award for those who provide the greatest
service to
update Minor Planet Center's catalog of known astroids.
Let me just state that for those people who believe that there is
no threat
and that we live in a world today where those movies that talked
about
astroids colliding with the world and the threat that it posed,
that that is
all science fiction, I have got bad news for them. It is not
science
fiction.
There are numerous examples of astroids and comets in the last
few years
that have come very near to the world and not been undetected
until the last
minute or even after they pass by the world. One of them was
coming in from
the Sun and was not seen until after it passed the Earth's orbit.
If any of these astroids or comets would have hit the Earth, it
would have
been a catastrophic occasion, perhaps killing hundreds of
millions of
people. Perhaps in one case in the past, millions of years ago,
that is
perhaps what eliminated the dinosaur life on our planet.
The following is a list of examples of recently observed
asteroids:
* An asteroid about 300 meters in size crossed a near-Earth orbit
about
500,000 miles from our planet in October of last year.
* An asteroid about the size of three football fields made its
closest
approach to the Earth (roughly the same distance: twice the
Moon's distance
from the Earth) on January 7, 2002.
* An asteroid reportedly the size of an 18-story building on a
close
approach to Earth (just a bit farther out than the Moon) was
observed on
March 8.
The disturbing point about this asteroid is that it was seen from
Earth
again only after it had moved out of the glare of the Sun and
into the night
sky on March 12.
For each nearby asteroid that is spotted there are several that
pass
entirely unnoticed.
Some researchers estimated that there are roughly 25 asteroids,
roughly the
size of the one observed on March 12, cross a near-Earth orbit
that is
closer than the Moon. Astronomers believe that the number of
undiscovered
asteroids far exceeds the known list currently available to the
scientific
community.
We need to know if there is a threat coming at the world. And
having our
young people, giving them awards, having amateur astronomers look
into the
sky to help us find those objects is something that we are
mobilizing the
people to help us discover that possible threat. If we see
something coming
at us that is years away, then we can handle that. We can do
something about
it. If we do not find out until a mere month or two beforehand,
the Earth
could be in real danger.
I was the chairman of a hearing in which we had the experts
testify on this
issue; and one expert said, Congressman, you do not have to worry
about
that. There is about as much chance of a comet hitting the Earth
as it is of
you going to Las Vegas and getting a royal straight flush.
And I said, Oh, my gosh. I did get a royal straight flush once. I
remember
that happening.
So this is a real threat, but it is not something we have to
fear. It is
something we have to look at and try to find a way to identify
threats. It
is called Home Planet Defense. We need to pay some attention to
it; and then
if an asteroid does threaten us, we will be able to identify it
far in
advance and deter it from its path so it would not hurt the
people of the
world.
This is the purpose of this Pete Conrad bill. We want to get our
young
people more interested in space and science and mathematics. This
bill is a
way to do it. The awards will be administered by the Smithsonian
Institution, and I am asking all of my colleagues to join me in
co-sponsoring the Pete Conrad Award bill because this bill will
do a great
deal in bringing to our young people the realities of science and
America's
space program. Let us get them off of these electronic games and
get them
into the real world and the real world may well be dealing with
threats
coming to us from outer space from great distances away,
asteroids and
comets that we should know about.
Again, I ask my colleagues to join me in co-sponsoring the
Charles Pete
Conrad Astronomy Award Act, and I look forward to working with my
colleagues
and seeing that we get young Americans looking up just like Pete
Conrad,
always looking up and getting involved.
=============
(2) NASA KEEPS EYE ON SPACE JUNK
>From New Scientist, 29 April 2002
http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99992229
Reports of the demise of NASA's space junk monitoring programme
appear to
have been premature. A spokesman has told New Scientist that the
space
agency will spend about $3 million next year to continue
observing small
orbital debris.
NASA is also negotiating with the US National Science Foundation
about how
to fund radar observations that pinpoint asteroid orbits and
study their
structures.
Massive overruns in building the International Space Station have
caused an
avalanche of budgetary troubles within NASA. Although both the
programmes
are tiny in financial terms, they are important and appear to
have been
caught in the crunch.
The US Space Command tracks all space debris larger than 10
centimetres with
military radars. Only NASA monitors smaller objects, which cannot
be tracked
individually but still pose a serious threat. Fast-moving debris
larger than
one centimetre could destroy or seriously damage a spacecraft.
NASA's programme, based at the Johnson Space Center, has
developed
guidelines to prevent explosions of spent rocket boosters.
According to
NASA, more than 100,000 fragments are between one and 10 cm, with
tens of
millions of smaller pieces also in orbit.
The future of the NASA's orbital debris program was in doubt
because its $3m
annual budget comes from two tightly squeezed programs - the
space shuttle
and the International Space Station. NASA now has agreed to
continue funding
it at about the same level next year, although details remain to
be worked
out.
Pinpointing orbits
Details also remain to be worked out for funding radar
observations of
asteroids with the 300-metre Arecibo radio telescope and smaller
antennas at
the Goldstone Deep Space Communications Complex in California.
Radar can measure an asteroid's distance within 10 metres and its
velocity
to a millimetre per second, says Steve Ostro of the Jet
Propulsion
Laboratory. That data can increase the precision of calculating
orbits by
1000 times, allowing far better assessment of whether the
asteroids threaten
Earth.
NASA had proposed cutting the Arecibo budget, but in December
2001 agreed to
spend $400,000 continue to operate the radar for a year. NASA
officials
believe NSF should pay to run the radar facilities, says a
spokesman, but
NASA will now continue to budget about half a million dollars a
year for
research with the radars.
The two agencies are discussing the issue; observers expect a
resolution
within weeks.
Jeff Hecht
Copyright 2002, New Scientist
=============
(3) MYSTERY METEORITE WITH A MOLTEN PAST
>From Ron Baalke <baalke@jpl.nasa.gov>
http://skyandtelescope.com/news/current/article_585_1.asp
Mystery Meteorite with a Molten Past
Sky & Telescope News Brief
April 25, 2002
Planetary scientists suspect that many primordial asteroids must
have grown
large enough to melt completely, yielding iron-rich cores and
silicate
crusts before being shattered to pieces. After
all, the iron meteorites reaching Earth comprise dozens of unique
compositional types. Yet, among the thousands of known
meteorites, only a
relative handful consist of basalt, the igneous rock type that
would be most
common in those asteroidal crusts - and until recently all of
them seemed to
have come from a single source, 4 Vesta. In the April 12th issue
of Science,
Akira Yamaguchi (National Institute of Polar Research, Tokyo) and
nine colleagues argue that
a 40-gram stone called Northwest Africa 011 is a basaltic
meteorite entirely
unlike those from Vesta. Its parent body is unknown; one
candidate is 1459
Magnya, an outer-belt object that was found to have a basalt
spectrum two
years ago. Still, though lacking a pedigree, NWA 011 is a
significant find.
As asteroid expert Richard P. Binzel (MIT) explains,
"Yamaguchi's results
(and those for 1459 Magnya) are the 'eureka' that
complement what the iron
meteorites have been telling us: there must have been other
Vestas out
there."
Online access to Science is restricted, but Yamaguchi's abstract
can be
found at:
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/296/5566/334.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/296/5566/334
A New Source of Basaltic Meteorites Inferred from Northwest
Africa 011
Akira Yamaguchi,[12*] Robert N. Clayton,[3] Toshiko K.
Mayeda,[3]
Mitsuru Ebihara,[4] Yasuji Oura,[4] Yayoi N. Miura,[5]
Hiroshi Haramura,[1]
Keiji Misawa,[12] Hideyasu Kojima,[12] Keisuke Nagao[6]
Eucrites are a class of basaltic meteorites that share
common
mineralogical, isotopic, and chemical properties and are
thought to
have been derived from the same parent body, possibly
asteroid 4 Vesta.
The texture, mineralogy, and noble gas data of the
recently
recovered meteorite, Northwest Africa (NWA) 011, are
similar to those
of basaltic eucrites. However, the oxygen isotopic
composition of
NWA011 is different from that of other eucrites,
indicating that NWA011
may be derived from a different parent body. The presence
of basaltic
meteorites with variable oxygen isotopic composition
suggests the
occurrence of multiple basaltic meteorite parent bodies,
perhaps
similar to 4 Vesta, in the early solar system.
1 Antarctic Meteorite Research Center, National Institute
of Polar
Research, Tokyo 173-8515, Japan.
2 The Graduate University for Advanced Studies, Tokyo
173-8515, Japan.
3 Enrico Fermi Institute, University of Chicago, Chicago,
IL 60637, USA.
4 Department of Chemistry, Tokyo Metropolitan University,
Hachioji,
Tokyo 192-0397, Japan.
5 Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo,
Tokyo 113-0032, Japan.
6 Laboratory for Earthquake Chemistry, University of
Tokyo, Tokyo
113-0033, Japan.
* To whom correspondence should be addressed.
E-mail:
yamaguch@nipr.ac.jp
===========
(4) EVENING FIREBALL CAPTURED ON FILM
>From ADVERTISER (AUSTRALIA) 29th April 2002
A BLAZING streak across the late-afternoon sky on Friday
presented Hayden
Slade with a stellar photographic opportunity.
Mr Slade, 27, was parked outside a fast food restaurant at Tea
Tree Gully
enjoying a chicken burger about 5.45pm when he noticed the
meteor.
"I didn't know what it was, but I thought it was pretty
amazing," he said.
"I said to my workmate jokingly `we'll know if it hits the
earth'."
Mr Slade, of Forestville, then remembered there was a digital
camera in the
truck and started taking snaps as it hurtled across the sky. The
bright
trail remained visible for several minutes before disappearing
from sight to
the west, over the sea, Mr Slade said.
While not a keen stargazer, Mr Slade said the object had sparked
his
curiosity.
"Something like that is pretty interesting," he said.
"I made a few calls to try to find out what it was, but no
one seemed to
know anything much and I don't know what happened to it."
Astronomical Society of SA technical information officer Tony
Beresford said
no one had reported a sighting but the object was almost
certainly a meteor
that would have burned up as it passed through the atmosphere.
Dr Beresford said on average bright meteors were seen monthly
around the
world.
"They are quite common."
Meteors were either solid lumps that had broken off from
asteroids or pieces
of a comet that were similar to cigarette ash in texture, Dr
Beresford said.
"The vast majority are bits of comet stuff - fluffy bits of
dust which don't
have a hope of surviving the atmosphere," he said.
Copyright 2002, Advertiser
===========
(5) MACE 2002: CALL FOR CONTRIBUTIONS
>From Reiner M. Stoss <rstoss@hrz1.hrz.tu-darmstadt.de>
Dear minor planet and comet observers!
The "Meeting on Asteroids and Comets in Europe", MACE
2002, is just three
weeks away. If you are planning to attend and have not yet
"registered",
please do so now. For this you just have to write an email to:
MACE2002@astro.hr
with the following details
First name:
Last name:
Institution/Observatory:
E-mail:
Comments and suggestions:
Please be reminded that the deadline for abstract submission is
just a few
days away (April 30th).
For details please visit:
http://www.astro.hr/mace2002/Contributions/contributions.html
There is still space left for oral and poster presentations so
please
consider presenting your observatory/project/work with a
contribution at
this meeting.
Meeting website:
http://www.astro.hr/mace2002/index.html
Looking forward to hear from you and seeing you in Visnjan!
Yours sincerely,
Korado Korlevic
on behalf of the SOC and LOC
==================
(6) 'FORECASTING' SPACE WEATHER
>From Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>
Steve Roy
Media Relations Department
Marshall Space Flight Center
Huntsville, AL
(256) 544-0034
steve.roy@msfc.nasa.gov
For Release: April 29, 2002
Release: N02-002
'Forecasting' space weather
NASA, university scientists see prediction of solar storms in
future
Much like tornado watchers look to the skies for clues that a
twister is
forming, NASA and university scientists are watching the Sun in
an effort to
better predict space weather -- blasts of particles from the Sun
that impact
the magnetosphere, the magnetic bubble around the Earth.
Based at the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC)
in
Huntsville, Ala., this research unites scientists from NASA's
Marshall Space
Flight Center in Huntsville and the University of Alabama in
Huntsville.
Like severe weather on Earth, severe space weather can be costly.
When massive solar explosions, known as coronal mass ejections,
blast
through the Sun's outer atmosphere and plow toward Earth at
speeds of
thousands of miles per second, the resulting effects can be
harmful to
communication satellites and astronauts outside the Earth's
magnetosphere. On the ground, the magnetic storm wrought by these
solar
particles can knock out electric power.
A study by scientists at the National Space Science and
Technology Center,
published in the April 20 issue of the "The Astrophysical
Journal," is
offering new insight on these solar storms and how to better
predict them.
One of the authors, Dr. David Falconer, a research associate from
the
University of Alabama in Huntsville, compares potential
solar-storm
prediction techniques to methods used for predicting
thunderstorms and
tornadoes on Earth.
"When we look up at clouds, we can identify those with the
potential to
bring severe weather," he explains. "If the sky is
clear, or filled with
hazy Cirrus clouds, there is a low likelihood of severe weather.
On the
other hand, we can use special equipment to observe the surface
of the Sun,
enabling us to glean clues on what severe space weather might be
forming."
Fortunately, people on Earth aren't without protection from space
weather.
"Our planet's magnetosphere protects us from the worst of a
solar storm's
fury," says NSSTC solar scientist Dr. Ron Moore of the
Marshall Center.
Filled by charged particles trapped in Earth's magnetic field,
the spherical
comet-shaped magnetosphere extends out 40,000 miles from Earth's
surface in
the sunward direction and more in other directions. "But
when severe
particle streams slam against the magnetosphere, we
see the effects," Moore adds.
This NSSTC research builds on the 1999 "S marks the
spot" finding, made by
researchers at Montana State University-Bozeman and the Solar
Physics
Research Corporation in Tucson. They discovered that regions of
the Sun with
an obvious global twist to the magnetic fields are more likely to
erupt in a
coronal mass ejection than regions with no discernable global
twist.
In short, these ejections occur when solar magnetic field lines
snake around
each other, forming the letter "S". Usually, they go
past each other. But if
they connect, it's like a short circuit.The mid-section breaks
loose and
drives out a coronal mass ejection.
Using the Solar Vector Magnetograph, a solar-observation facility
at the
Marshall Center, NSSTC scientists monitored active areas of
strong magnetic
fields on the Sun, measuring the amount of magnetic energy stored
in a
region.
"Whereas a visible "S"-shaped structure in a
magnetic region is only a
qualitative indicator of substantial stored magnetic energy, the
vector
magnetograph gives a quantitative indicator, telling which of two
"S"-shaped
regions has the greater energy," says Moore.
This led NSSTC scientists to identify a correlation between
stored energy
and coronal mass ejections. Areas with high levels of magnetic
energy were
more likely to produce solar eruptions than areas with low
levels.
"In seeking predictions of solar activity, zero global
nonpotentiality is
the space-weather version of a clear sky on Earth," Falconer
says. "Regions
with high global nonpotentiality have a large store of free
magnetic energy
available for producing coronal mass ejections."
With improvements in solar-storm prediction methods, scientists
are looking
to the future, when new advancements may offer the opportunity to
issue
solar-weather "watches," similar to tornado watches.
"A tornado watch indicates the conditions are favorable for
the formation of
a tornado, while a tornado warning indicates a tornado has
already been
sighted," Falconer explains. "Right now, we're learning
what signs to look
for as indicators of potential severe space weather."
This advance warning will give people on Earth more time to
prepare by
placing satellites in a safe configuration, planning the best
time for
astronaut space walks or rocket launches, and implementing
contingency plans
to deal with any power outages.
In addition to Falconer and Moore, solar scientist Dr. Allen Gary
of the
Marshall Center also co-authored the study. The three researchers
are part
of the NSSTC solar physics group, which develops instruments for
measuring
the magnetic field on the Sun. With these instruments, the group
studies the
origin, structure and evolution of the solar magnetic field and
the impact
it has on Earth's space environment.
A collaboration that enables scientists, engineers and educators
to share
research and other facilities, the NSSTC is a partnership with
the Marshall
Center, Alabama universities and federal agencies. It focuses on
space
science, Earth sciences, materials science, biotechnology,
propulsion,
information technology and optics.
The NASA role in this solar physics research project is led by
the Marshall
Space Flight Center for the Office of Space Science at NASA
Headquarters in
Washington, D.C.
[NOTE: Images supporting this release are available at
http://www1.msfc.nasa.gov/NEWSROOM/NSSTC/news/photos/2002/photosN02-002.htm
A QuickTime movie is available at
http://www1.msfc.nasa.gov/NEWSROOM/NSSTC/news/video/2002/videoN02-002.htm]
==============
(7) PROTEST AGAINST CALL FOR EUROPEAN BOYCOTT OF ACADEMIC AND
CULTURAL TIES
WITH ISRAEL
http://euroisrael.huji.ac.il/
On April 6, The Guardian published an open letter signed by 120
University
professors (90 from the UK) calling for a moratorium on cultural
and
research links with Israel at a European or national level
"unless and until
Israel abides by UN resolutions and opens serious peace
negotiations with
the Palestinians, along the lines proposed in many peace
plans..."
We, the undersigned, hereby unequivocally condemn this call for a
European
boycott of research and cultural links with Israel.
Whereas we hold diverse political views with respect to the past
and current
policies of the Israeli government, and whereas we recognize the
right of
individuals and concerned citizens in Israel and abroad, to
openly express
their opinions regarding the tragic and devastating
events of recent months, we are united in our condemnation of
this
unprecendented call by European scholars to suspend
European-Israeli
academic and cultural ties.
Our reasons for opposing the proposed initiative include:
1. A moratorium on scientific and cultural cooperation with any
group of
scholars is diametrically opposed to the concept of freedom in
the conduct
of science, one of the most basic principles of scientific
ethics.
2. Restricting academic ties between European and Israeli
scholars to
advance particular political goals diminishes the spirit of open
collaborative scientific scholarship. Science and research become
hostages
to political agendas or moral outrage and the human value of both
endeavors
is belittled.
3. The proposed boycott is an improper and immoral act of
collective
punishment, unworthy of colleagues in European academic
communities.
4. A unilateral boycott of Israeli academics unfairly identifies
Israel as
the only party responsible for the violent shift in
Israeli-Palestinian
relations and ignores ongoing attacks against innocent Israeli
citizens.
Such an one-sided perspective is contrary to academic standards
of
truth-seeking.
5. Many European-funded programs have explicitly aimed at
enhancing
scientific cooperation between Israelis, Palestinians and Arab
scholars.
Joint research projects -- for example, in water resource
management, cancer
treatment, desalination, and regional disease eradication -- have
continued
undeterred throughout the months of the Intifada. Other European
programs
have provided important frameworks for Middle East scholars to
meet in
"neutral" settings outside the region, to discuss
academic topics of mutual
interest, and to build informal interpersonal
ties, thus helping to counter years of accumulated
misunderstanding and
animosity. Freezing Israeli access to, and participation in, such
programs
would neither end the violence nor promote meaningful dialogue.
It would
damage these important frameworks and undermine the benefits to
research.
6. Democratic academic communities around the world, especially
in Israel,
consist of individuals who openly question and challenge the
world-views of
governments and their representatives. To boycott Israeli
academics would
endanger the democratic values and respect for human rights this
community works hard to foster. The moratorium would castigate
the very
people whose contributions are so needed during these troubled
times.
In short, we think that the call to place a moratorium on
scientific and
cultural relations between Israel and Europe diminishes our
ability and
common responsibility to promote collaboration between the two
peoples and
to further the cause of knowledge, progress and peace.
To support this protest, please click here:
http://euroisrael.huji.ac.il/sign.htm
As of April 24, 2002 we have received 5000 signatories.
============================
* LETTERS TO THE MODERATOR *
============================
(8) IN CASE OF AN IMPENDING IMPACT - WHEN IS THE TIME TO ACT?
>From Yvan Dutil <yvan.r.dutil@ca.abb.com>
Dear Beeny,
I would like to comment about when it is the appropriate time to
act against
an incoming asteroid. Very basic physics tells you the effort you
have to
put in order to deflect an asteroid is inversely proportional to
the square
of time left before impact and proportional to its mass. Cleary
you have to
start to work on the problem as soon as practical.
The case of 1950 DA is an extreme example of this effect where
thermal
behaviour of the asteroid is significant enough to save or
doom Earth.
Sagan and Ostro wrote a paper about this many years ago [1].
Typical
timescale for deflection of larger asteroid were calculated in
decades for
foreseeable technology. However, Tunguska like impactors can be
dealt with
on very short notice since, for those objects, deflection and
destruction is almost equivalent in
term of energy. In that case simply crashing a copper "à
la" Deep Impact
would do the job. In that case, you are limited by the production
time of
the interceptor.
Decision for deflection should be done at the moment that error
on a
misdianogstic is low enough. In practice this means avoiding
crying wolf all
the time. If an asteroid has 1% of the chance of hitting the
Earth, this
means that you would need to defect 100 asteroids on average to
get the good
one. Clearly you have to wait until the asteroid has a
probability of
hitting the Earth near to one (ex: 10%) before taking the
decision of
deflection. In consequence, the obvious first step in the
detection process
is to gather more observations.
Since space science is progressing independentely of NEO
reasearch, it is
pointless to plan a deflection centuries from now. However, if
the impact of
a medium size asteroid is detected within 50 years taking account
of time
needed to prepared the deflection and to do the preliminary
reconnaissance,
starting to work on the problem now would be a good idea.
These comments are only valid for asteroids, as long-period
comets do not
provide enough warning time to allow any kind of deflection for a
predictable future.
Regards,
Yvan Dutil
[1] Sagan, C.; Ostro, S. J. "Dangers of Asteroid
Deflection", NATURE V.368,
NO. 6471, P. 501, 1994
===============
(9) ANNALS OF THE CHOSUN DYNASTY
>From Phillip Clapham <carolflip@care4free.net>
I wonder if your CCNet contributor, Alastair McBeath, would like
to comment
on the Annals of the Chosun Dynasty available on the Internet
from
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/korea/
. This is a transcript of the whole
article and appears to contradict many of the things McBeath has
cast doubt
on, mainly the ability of meteors to affect the climate, to cause
fires on
the ground, to generate heat storms, dust clouds and seismic
waves etc. In
addition, according to Yi Tae-jin they also caused Venus to
appear in
daylight hours, presumably because of the dust accumulating in
the
atmosphere, and a reduced brightness of the Sun etc. This very
much seems to
me to indicate the so called Venus Tablets from Babylonia,
attributed to the
reign of Ammisaduga of Dynasty One at Babylon, actually concern
the
appearances of Venus during a phase of heightened meteoric
activity, the
sort of thing delineated in dendrochronology around 1628-5BC.
These dates,
as most of us are aware, have been tied in with the eruption of
the Thera
volcano in the Aegean. Perhaps a similar situation could be
produced by a
volcano ? However, historians have had extreme difficulty in
moving
historical chronology to fit an early date for Thera so perhaps
we should
think in terms of meteoric activity as responsible for the low
growth tree
rings of those years. This is the main thrust of Yi Tae-jin, that
meteoric
activity was responsible for the Little Ice Age. In addition, a
point
arising from a guarded acceptance of this possibility would be
the
likelihood that Mike Baillie was right and the Shang Dynasty in
China can be
dated fairly conclusively as situated between 1628-5BC and the
1159-45BC
phase of very low growth tree rings, accompanied by records that
seem to
record actual meteoric activity. Indeed, Mike Baillie went
further and
located New Kingdom Egypt and the Hyksos within the same basic
time bracket.
At the end of the New Kingdom, in late dynasty 19, we have an
actual
Egyptian record of an impact event that affected a wide swathe of
people
from northern Africa (ancient Libya), across the Aegean (the end
of the
Mycenaean Era), and Anatolia (the sudden demise of the Hittites).
The
situation is even better in respect of meteoric activity as an
agent of site
destructions, attributed usually to intense heat, or by fire.
They have been
dated in a fairly condense time frame but with evidence that more
than one
impact or atmospheric explosion may have been involved, a phase
lasting
twenty years or so. Ugarit, for example, was destroyed, its earth
turning
yellow in the heat generated, long after sites had been destroyed
on Cyprus,
in Greece, and in Anatolia, although there is evidence that some
sites even
in those areas were destroyed at different points in time, and
even
sometimes the same site on more than one occasion.
===========
(10) AND FINALLY: 'THATCHERITE' FISH VOTE WITH THEIR FINS
>From Ananova, 30 April 2002
http://www.ananova.com/news/story/sm_577714.html?menu=news.scienceanddiscovery
Scientists say fish on coral reefs live in their own capitalist,
free market
economies. Those which survive by providing a valet service for
their
neighbours risk losing customers if they do a bad job. Studies
found client
fish were less likely to visit 'cleaners' who had previously
cheated them or
forced them to queue.
Fish visit cleaners to have parasites nibbled from their bodies,
but some
cleaners cheat by pinching flakes of skin. However the clients
manage to
keep an overall good quality of service by exercising consumer
choice and
voting with their fins.
The research was carried out by Redouan Bshary, of the University
of
Cambridge, and Daniel Schaffer, of the Max Planck Institute for
Behavioural
Physiology in Germany. They looked at client fish, like the
long-nosed
parrotfish, and cleaner fish, like the wrasse, on the reefs of
Ras Muhammad
on the Red Sea coast of Egypt.
The study is published in the journal Animal Behaviour and
reported by New
Scientist.
Copyright 2002, Ananova
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