PLEASE NOTE:
*
CCNet-ESSAY, 2 May 2000
-----------------------
"Attempts to interpret the IAU
'adoption' of the Scale as a
sanctification of every technical aspect
of its first incarnation
or as an iron rule on its use in
scientific studies of NEOs is,
first, misguided, and second, doomed to
failure in the real world
of science."
-- Johannes Andersen,
General Secretary of the IAU
THE TORINO SCALE - A WORKING ALTERNATIVE
By Jonathan Tate, Spaceguard UK
<fr77@dial.pipex.com>
The Torino Scale – a Working Alternative.
http://ds.dial.pipex.com/spaceguard/alternative2.htm
Introduction
The Torino Impact Hazard Scale was devised by Professor Richard
P.
Binzel of the Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary
Sciences,
at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). It has been
described as a "Richter Scale" for describing the
impact hazard
associated with newly discovered asteroids and comets, and was
designed
to serve as a communication tool for astronomers to describe the
seriousness of predictions of close encounters by asteroids and
comets
to the public and media.
The Torino Scale uses numbers that range from 0 to 10, where
0
indicates that an object has a zero or negligibly small chance of
collision with the Earth. (Zero is also used to categorize any
object
that is too small to penetrate the Earth's atmosphere intact, in
the
event that a collision does occur.) A 10 indicates that a
collision is
certain, and the impacting object is so large that it is capable
of
precipitating a global climatic disaster.
The Torino Impact Hazard Scale is named after the Italian city in
which
it was discussed, though not formally agreed, at the IMPACT
workshop
(sponsored in part by the International Astronomical Union (IAU))
in
June 1999. Consensus was not achieved in Turin, and the IAU,
while
welcoming the concept, has stated that "Attempts to
interpret the IAU
'adoption' of the Scale as a sanctification of every technical
aspect
of its first incarnation or as an iron rule on its use in
scientific
studies of NEOs is, first, misguided, and second, doomed to
failure in
the real world of science."
It is unlikely that such a scale will ever be needed in a
professional
context, as those concerned are fully conversant with the
subject. The
real value of an impact hazard scale comes into play when dealing
with
disaster management organisations, the military, the media and
the
public. To this end, any resulting scale must be simple (but not
so
simple as to be misleading or confusing), easy to understand and
as
accurate as possible.
Aim
The aim of this paper is to recommend a refinement of the Torino
Scale
developed in the light of experience in dealing with other
interested
organisations, the public and the media.
. . . [continued]