PLEASE NOTE:
*
CCNet DIGEST, 13 May 1998
-------------------------
(1) DEEP IMPACT, SHALLOW LOGIC
Brian G. Marsden (bmarsden@cfa.harvard.edu)
(2) FILMING COSMIC CATASTROPHE:
The Planetary Society
http://neo.planetary.org/NEONews/deepimpact.html
(3) SEEKING INFORMATION ON LARGE NORWEGIAN FIREBALL, 5 MAY 1998
Trond Erik Hillestad <trondh@fof.kog.no>
(4) EXTRATERESTRIAL TECHNOGENIC COMPONENT OF THE METEOROID FLUX
A.V. Arkhipov, INSTITUTE OF RADIO ASTRONONOMY,
UKRAINE
(5) SEARCHING FOR EXTRATERRESTRIAL CIVILIZATIONS
G. Beskin et al.
(6) GLOBAL WARMING IS 'GOOD FOR YOU'
From THE TIMES, 12 May 1998
==========================
(1) DEEP IMPACT, SHALLOW LOGIC
From Brian G. Marsden (bmarsden@cfa.harvard.edu)
Given their rather extreme criticism of my calculations on
March 11,
some of them made under pressure and on a low budget, I was quite
surprised that Chapman, and particularly Morrison, were so
forgiving of
the scientific bloopers in "Deep Impact", constructed
over the course
of more than three years with seemingly endless resources.
Since Chapman mentions me in his review, let
me remark that I don't
think that the "simplification" of the circumstances of
the discovery
and orbit computation of the "Deep Impact" comet is at
all forgivable.
As Morrison says, there is a "great deal left unsaid"
in the movie, but
there is really no way one can "fill in the details" in
the early part
of the movie that makes either scientific or logical sense.
The problem was that the near-naked-eye
detection of the comet near
Mizar by Biederman at the Richmond star party apparently preceded
the
professional observation by Wolf at "Adrian
Peak". The position Wolf
used to set his telescope on the comet was very close to that of
Mizar
(1323+54--I think I remembered this correctly from the few
moments the
piece of paper with Biederman's observation was displayed), so
little
time could have elapsed between these sightings. Of course, one
could
suppose--attempting to fill in details--that Wolf had in fact
already
been observing the comet himself on preceding nights (which could
account for the apparently sudden orbit computation) and that he
realized that Biederman had then seen the same comet. This would
also
of course account for Wolf's placing his own name ahead of
Biederman's
in what he then wrote down for the comet's name before pocketing
the
paper.
But Wolf knew of Biederman's detection, not because
that information
had been forwarded to him from the Central Bureau for
Astronomical
Telegrams, but because Biederman's teacher had told him about it
(and
not also told the CBAT)--or such was his intention in the first
scene.
So, given the then very unlikely event that Wolf (and not also
hundreds
of other folk around the world) had independently just discovered
the
comet, there is not only the problem of the instant orbit, but in
adding his own name (indeed, placing it first!) to that of
Biederman in
his christening the comet, Wolf was so lacking in honesty and
integrity
that one feels that his subsequent altercation with the truck
rather
served him right. Anyway, why didn't this piece of paper
burn up in
the fire, together with--at least in the view of President
Freeman--the
mysterious Biederman, who in reality seemed to have given up on
the
whole thing? And nobody else reported any observations of
this bright
comet to the CBAT or the newspapers until Freeman's announcement
a
whole year after Wolf's death? It was already so bright two years
before it was due to impact the earth?
Of course, we know that the two components of the
comet were bright
enough to be seen in daylight one month before impact. On its
essentially parabolic orbit, the comet could not then have been
very
bright because of proximity to the earth--but it might instead
have
been near the sun. In that case, however, the angular distance
between
components following each other by three hours would have been
too
small to separate them with the naked eye. Anyway, did that
initial
orbit diagram have its perihelion point close to the sun?--I
think not.
So, some time after discovery, the comet had to have been
captured into
orbit about the earth. This would have required an earlier near
encounter with the earth--and THAT must be the one that Wolf
calculated...
I had a telephone call from writer Bruce Joel Rubin
on Monday, and
he was just as upset about this as I was. He and I had in fact
discussed the whole circumstances of the discovery, announcement
and
orbit computation of the comet (he thought that I should be
played by
Peter Ustinov!) when he came to see me in November 1994. In a
scenario
that macabrely involved people who were very much like Gene and
Carolyn
Shoemaker, there was indeed to be a fatal car crash on the road
down
from the mountain-top observatory. The films on which they had
found
the faint comet were safe in their metal canister--but lost in
the
desert terrain, as the comet, its existence unknown to anyone
alive,
was drawing inexorably closer. Two years later, the comet had
brightened enough to warrant a visual discovery, and the canister
with
the earlier films was found around the same time. Together
with the
new observations, the measurements from the old films allowed an
excellent orbit solution with no doubt about the subsequent
impact on
the earth. And there was logic to the order of the names on the
comet.
And much as though NASA might have liked the secrecy, it had to
go...
I don't now remember the details of how we maneuvered the impact,
but
it involved three cometary components, not two, and there was an
earlier passage near the earth and some clever resonant motions.
Rubin is listed in the credits as the lead
writer, but in the harsh
world of Hollywood he was retired from this responsibility a
couple of
years ago. Some of his ideas, such as the car crash,
remained in the
mixed-up way we have seen. Incidentally, they were
completely
independent of those in Sir Arthur Clarke's "Hammer of
God", which
neither he nor I had read at that time. (O.K.: the actual
movie makes
sense if we had been expecting a dangerous comet with a 130-year
period
to return but were not sure where in its orbit it was until it
was
found, and then...) "Deep Impact" is not in the class
of Rubin's
"Ghost" and "Jacob's Ladder"--and it is a
pity, because he so very much
wanted the science in "Deep Impact" (yes, that was its
title already in
1994) to be absolutely right. But despite this setback, he
can move on
to other projects in the knowledge he did some things right.
Astronomers also nowadays function in a harsh world (well, maybe
not
quite as harsh as Hollywood), and I rather understand the
feeling...
Rubin still cares deeply about the NEO cause and is
emphatic that
the appearance of "Deep Impact" provides an ideal
opportunity to garner
support for NEO search programs worldwide. He is happy to
have these
thoughts made known.
As for me, I thought the best part of the movie was
the landing and
activities on the comet's nucleus--despite the sudden onset of
outgassing right at local sunrise. How did we know the
comet's size
and rotation rate so precisely anyway?
===================================
(2) FILMING COSMIC CATASTROPHE:
From The Planetary Society
http://neo.planetary.org/NEONews/deepimpact.html
The Planetary Society Addresses the Science of Deep Impact
By Charlene M. Anderson
We do meteoroids, not movies. In the Planetary Society's
memebeship
publication, The Planetary Report, we report on humanity's
efforts to
explore other worlds and understand our place in the solar
neighborhood. In our magazine, as well in our special-interest
near-Earth object, (NEO) newsletter, the NEO News, we cover
comets and
their close relatives, asteroids -- objects that have the
potential to
affect life on this planet.
Through the Planetary Society's various asteroid projects, we
have
advanced scientific investigation of these objects. Through
public
education and advocacy, we have tried to teach people about the
role of
comets and asteroids in Earth and solar system history and to
raise
awareness among those who control funding for scientific
research.
Meanwhile, on May 8, Dreamworks and Paramount Studios released
Deep
Impact, a film about the reaction of Earth's inhabitants to a
comet on
a collision course with the planet. The film's producers, Joan
Bradshaw
and Steven Spielberg, who is a member of the Planetary Society's
Board
of Directors, granted the Planetary Society a preview of the
screenplay.
Our preview occurred after shooting had begun, so we had no
influence
on the movie's scientific and technical accuracy. However, our
reading
touched off some lively "what if?" and "could it
happen?" discussions,
which we present to you here.
Our three internal reviewers included James D. Burke, an engineer
and
technical editor of The Planetary Report; Andre Bormanis, a
physicist,
science consultant to the Star Trek television series and films,
and
consultant to the Planetary Society; and myself, editor of The
Planetary Report.
After reading the script, I asked the filmmakers and their
consultants
questions about the making of Deep Impact and checked some of
their
statements with leading scientists in comet and asteroid research
and
hazard analysis. Click on the following questions
[at http://neo.planetary.org/NEONews/deepimpact.html]
to read the
in-depth answers about the science and story-telling of Deep
Impact:
* Why try to portray the science correctly?
* What role did scientific consultants play?
* How was the film's comet discovered and named?
* How is humanity's impending doom described?
* Why was the Orion propulsion system chosen for the spacecraft?
* What greets the astronauts as they approach the comet?
* How is an object of very little gravity portrayed?
* What will the comet look like close up?
* Could nuclear energy save life on Earth?
* Were the consultants satisfied with the science in the film?
==========================
(3) SEEKING INFORMATION ON LARGE NORWEGIAN FIREBALL, 5 MAY 1998
From Trond Erik Hillestad <trondh@fof.kog.no>
I recently heard some (unconfirmed) information that a bright
meteor
fragmented and exploded above northern Norway on May 5th. A loud
boom
was heard over a large area. The boom got some houses to shake
and
triggered avalanches in nearby mountains - again, this is
unconfirmed.
Has anyone got USAF information that can be related to such an
event? I
believe the coordinates are about 70 N, 15 E. No, I don't have
the time
of day yet.
All the best,
Trond
================
(4) EXTRATERESTRIAL TECHNOGENIC COMPONENT OF THE METEOROID FLUX
A.V. Arkhipov: Extraterrestrial technogenic component of the
meteoroid
flux. ASTROPHYSICS AND SPACE SCIENCE, 1997, Vol.252, No.1-2,
pp.67-71
INSTITUTE OF RADIO ASTRONONOMY, UA-310002 KHARKOV, UKRAINE
It is shown that the Earth is a natural collector of
extraterrestrial
nonsterile artefacts that could impact our planet. Artefacts from
1.2 x
10(6) nearby stars could have reached the Earth over its history,
and
could be agents for spontaneous interstellar panspermia, even if
alien
civilizations pollute space only at the current terrestrial rate.
Copyright 1998, Institute for Scientific Information Inc.
===========================
(5) SEARCHING FOR EXTRATERRESTRIAL CIVILIZATIONS
G. Beskin, N. Borisov, V. Komarova, S. Mitronova, S. Neizvestny,
V.
Plokhotnichenko, M. Popova: Methods and results of an optical
search
for extraterrestrial civilizations. ASTROPHYSICS AND SPACE
SCIENCE,
1997, Vol.252, No.1-2, pp.51-57
The prospects for searches for optical signals arriving from
extraterrestrial civilizations are discussed. Two criteria for an
artificial origin for optical emission are analyzed - intensity
variations with a a semiotic time structure and the presence of
narrow
laser lines. We propose to attempt to detect and study these
signals by
investigating 'suspicious' astronomical objects with extremely
high
time resolution, 10(-7)s. We will use the special
hardware/software
photometric complex MANIA (Multichannel Analysis of Nanosecond
Intensity Alterations), which consists of a photometer, a
'time-code'
converter that is the recording system, a PC/AT 486 computer, and
a
tape recorder. Special statistical methods and programs for the
search
and analysis of any type of brightness variability of
astronomical
objects on time scales from 10(-7) - 10(2)s are described. The
criteria
for choosing objects to be included in the search for
extraterrestrial
civilizations signals are discussed. We propose to search for
Type I
civilizations by investigating 161 stars of spectral types
F9V-G5V
within 25 pc of the Sun. As possible beacons (transmitters) of
Type II
extraterrestrial civilizations, we propose to consider objects
that
have unusual characteristics, in particular, hueless optical
spectra.
The results of observations of 60 objects and the limits for the
power
of possible signals are reported. Copyright 1998, Institute for
Scientific Information Inc.
============================
(6) GLOBAL WARMING IS 'GOOD FOR YOU'
From THE TIMES, 12 May 1998
http://www.sunday-times.co.uk:80/news/pages/Tuesday-Times/frontpage.html?1617548
HAPPINESS is a warm planet. In a polemical new book published in
the US
this week, an American economist has argued that global warming
is "a
broadly positive phenomenon", saying that "most people
in most places
would be better off in a warmer world".
Written by Thomas Gale Moore, a senior fellow at the conservative
Hoover Institution, the book is called Climate of Fear: Why We
Shouldn't Worry About Global Warming. Its thesis, which should
provoke
an angry reaction from many ecologists, is that global warming,
if it
were to occur at the rates that have been predicted, would not be
a
disaster. Instead, most people would benefit from the higher
temperatures.
Dr Moore bases his assertion on two arguments. Firstly, he points
out
that the two periods in human history that were warmer than today
were
not characterised by economic and social stagnation. On the
contrary,
mankind flourished. Secondly, he contends that higher
carbon-dioxide
emissions, coupled with warmer autumns and winters, would boost
agricultural production, reduce burdensome heating costs, improve
transportation and cut fatalities.
Making a rhetorical point, he also asks: why should we complain
about a
four-or five-degree increase in temperature when most people
prefer to
live in warmer climates, and millions have moved in order to do
so?
Does a Saturday-afternoon barbecue in London in March really mean
the
end of civilisation and spell doom for our grandchildren?
Wearing the hat of an economist, he calculates that, even if the
benefits of global warming fail to materialise, the costs of
curbing
greenhouse emissions would "far exceed even the most
pessimistic
estimates of losses from climatic change". Adopting policies
that would
slow economic growth in an attempt to prevent global warming
"would be
harmful".
The author has a political agenda, which is to scupper any global
treaty that would curb the "CO2-rich" industries of the
developed
world, especially when "climatologists do not agree on the
effect of
greenhouse gases on climate". He blames a cast of villains
for
spreading "scare stories" about global warming:
"If global climate
change is viewed as a threat, environmental organisations can
raise
more support from the public; and politicians can posture as
protectors
of mankind."
The most intriguing sections of Dr Moore's book deal with the
historical evidence linking a warm climate and human well-being.
The
two periods he elects for examination are those which
meteorologists
call the First Climatic Optimum and the Little Climatic Optimum
respectively. The first was from 9000BC to 2000BC, and the second
from
about AD900 to AD1300. Both periods teach us that "warmer is
better,
colder is worse".
The first period followed the end of an Ice Age, and saw man
domesticate plants and animals, consolidate the first ideas of
trade,
invent writing, and begin to form cities. Homo sapiens originated
about
40,000 years ago, yet it took him nearly 30,000 years to grow his
first
crops. Dr Moore attributes the change to a global warming, which
sowed
the first, irreversible seeds of human civilisation.
The second period - the High Middle Ages in Europe - saw a
flourishing
of the imagination in the "medieval warmth". The period
was one of the
most prosperous and progressive periods in European history,
characterised by an unparalleled building spree that gave rise to
St
Mark's in Venice, the Leaning Tower of Pisa, the cathedrals at
Santiago
de Compostela, Notre Dame, Canterbury and Chartres. This surge
ended
with the onset of a prolonged "cooling", beginning in
about 1300 and
marked first by the Black Death, that did not end till about
1800.
But what of the Third World? Dr Moore argues that since the
effects of
global warming are most marked in the higher latitudes, those
living in
tropical or sub-tropical areas will be largely unaffected.
Climate of Fear: Why We Shouldn't Worry About Global Warming, by
Thomas
Gale Moore; Cato Institute, Washington DC; $18.95.
(C) 1998 The Times Ltd.
----------------------------------------
THE CAMBRIDGE-CONFERENCE NETWORK (CCNet)
----------------------------------------
The CCNet is a scholarly electronic network. To subscribe, please
contact the moderator Benny J Peiser at <b.j.peiser@livjm.ac.uk>.
Information circulated on this network is for scholarly and
educational
use only. The attached information may not be copied or
reproduced for
any other purposes without prior permission of the copyright
holders.
The electronic archive of the CCNet can be found at
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/cccmenu.html