PLEASE NOTE:
*
CCNet 49/2003 - 4 June 2003
It looks good, feels good and sounds good, according
to the judges who yesterday surprised everyone by
naming Liverpool as the European Capital of Culture
for 2008. "If you had to say one thing that swung it
for Liverpool, it would have to be that there was a great
sense that the whole city was involved in the bid, was
behind the bid and was shouting on behalf of the city.
Taken overall, Liverpool looked good, sounded good and
feels good to be in."
--Sir Jeremy Isaacs, The Daily Telegraph, 4 June 2003
(1) SOUND WAVES RULE OUT METEOR IMPACT IN COLUMBIA DISASTER
(2) SCIENTISTS EYE ASTEROID TSUNAMI RISK
(3) NEW ROBOTIC TELESCOPES SEE AND THINK
(4) A SEARCH FOR POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS ASTEROID 1998 OX4
(5) METEOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ASTEROID (2101) ADONIS
(6) AFTER EROS: FUTURE MULTIPLE-TARGET DEDICATED ASTEROID
MISSIONS
(7) THE "TROJAN" ASTEROIDS AS BASES TO MONITOR OTHER
ASTEROIDS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TO EARTH
(8) WAS THE EARTH RESEEDED BY IMPACTS OF RETURNING EJECTA?
(9) PITY THE POOR MINISTERS
(10) CLARIFICATION ON RADIATION BELTS
(11) CONGRATULATIONS TO ESA: WE ARE MAKING PROGRESS
=============
(1) SOUND WAVES RULE OUT METEOR IMPACT IN COLUMBIA DISASTER
Houston Chronicle, 4 June 2003
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/space/1938277
By ERIC BERGER
Researchers who measured sound waves outside space shuttle
Columbia during its return to Earth helped rule out a meteor
impact or lightning strike as a cause for its demise.
A team that studied low-frequency sound waves from the shuttle's
turbulent passage through the atmosphere Feb. 1 at speeds above
Mach 20 released their preliminary results Wednesday.
Using a dozen sensor arrays spread across the United States and
Canada, the researchers said they were unable to definitively say
whether Columbia exploded or broke up more slowly.
"Most of what we were able to contribute to NASA was to rule
out things that people had hypothesized," said Henry Bass, a
University of Mississippi professor who led the research team.
Had Columbia been struck by lightning or a meteor, the event
would have produced a characteristic sound the arrays would have
picked up, Bass said. There were no such signals.
After Columbia broke up, an independent board investigating the
accident cast a wide net for both public and government
assistance, and the infrasonic sensor arrays were identified as a
possible source of information to help pin down the timeline and
cause of Columbia's breakup.
The Department of Defense funds the sensor arrays to monitor very
low frequency sound waves in the atmosphere, which are inaudible
to the human ear. These types of waves are useful to detect such
events as nuclear blasts.
The arrays have followed earlier shuttle landings, and the
researchers reported an analysis of Columbia's descent to the
Department of Defense in March.
Their work supports the investigation board's conclusion that a
hole in the leading edge of the shuttle's wing proved fatal
during re-entry.
Copyright 2003 Houston Chronicle
==============
(2) SCIENTISTS EYE ASTEROID TSUNAMI RISK
By Larry O'Hanlon, Discovery News
http://dsc.discovery.com/news/briefs/20030602/tsunami.html
Color-Coded Wave Heights
June 2, 2003 — It may be a while off, but if asteroid
1950-DA hits the Atlantic Ocean on March 16, 2880, as it might,
it's going to make big waves.
A new computer model of the potential asteroid impact shows
tsunamis on the Atlantic coast of North America reaching 400 feet
in height as they rise out of the ocean near shore and break over
coastal towns and cities. All from an asteroid that's only
two-thirds of a mile across (one kilometer) — one-tenth the
diameter of the dinosaur killer asteroid of 65 million years ago.
"One kilometer is about the limit for global effects (from
an impact)," said Jon Giorgini of NASA's Jet Propulsion
Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif.
Giorgini was part of the team that last year announced that
1950-DA was on a possible collision course with Earth. The
asteroid is the only one currently known to pose a potential
hazard to Earth.
Based on what's now known about 1950-DA, that fateful day 877
years from now will find the asteroid charging toward our planet
at 38,000 miles per hour and possibly slamming into the Atlantic,
say Earth and planetary scientists Steven Ward and Eric Asphaug
of the University of California at Santa Cruz.
Their work on modeling the impact tsunamis created by 1950-DA
appears in the June issue of the Geophysical Journal
International.
When it hits, 1950-DA will create a short-lived hole in the ocean
all the way to the seafloor.
"Initially the wave will be as deep as the ocean," said
Ward.
A lot of that initial energy will be dispersed, however, and then
the tsunami will start spreading outward from the impact site in
the same way waves spread out in a pond when a stone is thrown
in.
Although the asteroid has only a one-in-one-thousand chance of
scoring a direct hit with Earth, Ward and Asphaug want to point
out that any small asteroids can pose a significant tsunami
threat. We need to start looking for the many small asteroids out
there so we don't get caught off guard, Ward said.
Currently the Space Guard system looks for and tracks near-Earth
asteroids down to the size of one kilometer. NASA wants to drop
that size to 300 meters.
"Modeling the object 1950 DA makes a good example, but I
wouldn't want this study to raise any particular fears,"
said asteroid expert Richard Binzel of the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology. "Right now attention needs to be
focused on inventorying what's out there that we haven't spotted
yet."
Copyright 2003, Discovery News
================
(3) NEW ROBOTIC TELESCOPES SEE AND THINK
Space.com, 4 June 2003
http://space.com/businesstechnology/technology/automated_astronomy_030604.html
By Robert Roy Britt
NASHVILLE -- If an asteroid is discovered tonight and found to be
on a collision course with Earth, you may have a robot to thank
for the warning. If a star blinks for a nanosecond, you won't
notice it, but a robot might, and it will deduce that an object
no bigger than this city, roaming the solar system in Pluto's
realm, has just passed in front of a distant star.
A surprisingly cheap new crop of thinking and seeing machines
work alone, scanning the heavens every night, from dusk to dawn
with no coffee breaks, looking for objects that humans have so
far failed to find.
Robots have already bagged several dozen asteroids and a few
comets. They lock onto fluctuating stars and observe nightly
changes. Before long, they'll discover planets.
The robots make judgements about where to point and what to look
for. They adjust their routines to the weather. They notice new
things and track them. And finally they crank out partially
digested data ready for analysis by higher life forms.
More than a dozen teams from around the world, all involved in
creating fully autonomous, semi-intelligent observatories, met
here last week at a meeting of the American Astronomical Society
(AAS) to present new findings and swap ideas.
The collective effort is on the verge of producing a flood of new
and valuable data.
But can they handle it?
The creators of robotic astronomy say it will be a boon to
amateur stargazers, retiring astronomers and university students,
all of whom are thirsty to make discoveries but typically don't
have access to observational data from conventional telescopes.
"There's going to be a ton of stuff coming out," said
Roger Culver, a Colorado State University professor. Culver
smiled broadly when he told SPACE.com that robotic astronomy is
his ticket to retirement.
But all that stuff presents a problem. Early showers of ones and
zeros have already begun at a handful of pioneering robotic
observatories, and some researchers say they were not prepared to
handle the data flow. One of the toughest challenges was getting
the observations into the hands of capable analysts.
Computer programmers are coming to the rescue.
RTML and co-ops
Due out any day is version 3.0 of RTML, or Remote Telescope
Markup Language, a cosmically inclined variant of the HTML
computer language that underpins the World Wide Web.
RTML is being tailored to deal with astronomers' syntax. It will
be employed to point telescopes, coordinate the efforts of
multiple observatories in remote locations, then shuttle the data
off to the astronomer who sought it. The results will be
formatted for standard web browsers.
RTML will run the MOnitoring NEtwork of Telescopes (MONET), which
will consist of an observatory in Texas and another in South
Africa. Observing requests will come from dramatically diverse
controllers -- three professional research institutions along
with high school classrooms worldwide.
Meanwhile, universities and private institutions are cooperating
to operate new observatories, share and manage the data, and
provide educational opportunities at the college level.
One of these projects, the Robotically Controlled Telescope
Consortium (RCT), gives undergraduate and graduate students
access to the night sky that most aspiring astronomers only dream
of.
"The students just groove on this stuff," Culver said,
"the ability to discover an asteroid and possibly name
it."
Back to the future
RCT Consortium members refurbished a dormant telescope at the
Kitt Peak National Observatory in Arizona. The 51-inch
(1.3-meter) telescope was originally built in the 1960s to test
futuristic technologies that might one day control space
telescopes.
The facility was shut down because the technology of 1964 wasn't
sufficient to operate a telescope as well as humans could.
What required a room-sized computer in the 1960s, "I can now
do with a Palm Pilot," said Richard Gelderman, RCT's
observatory director. The telescope is now being run remotely
with pre-scheduled scripts that can be written during the day.
The setup has not yet achieved its goal of full autonomy by way
of semi-intelligent software.
NASA is providing partial funding.
A few RCT pictures were released at the AAS meeting, and students
and professors are analyzing early data. Soon, however,
observations will exceed the analytical capabilities of the
consortium, consisting of three universities and the Tucson-based
Planetary Science Institute.
"Give us a couple of months of full operation and we will be
looking for collaborators to come and take some of the data off
our hands," Gelderman said in an interview.
Cheap and simple
Another robotic set of eyes -- three, to be exact -- has already
produced important discoveries. The Moving Object and Transient
Event Search System (MOTESS) has netted more than 180 new
asteroids and a few comets during its two-year prototype effort,
Eric Craine, a Western Research Co. scientist, announced.
A handful of the objects are in Earth-crossing orbits and so bear
further monitoring to make sure they won't someday hit the
planet.
Inexpensive and simple -- roughly $20,000 to build -- the trio of
cosmic eyes has no moving parts. "It is simply allowed to
scan the sky as Earth rotates," said Craine, who represents
the operating group, called the Global Network of Astronomical
Telescopes (GNAT). Each of the three telescopes images a given
region of the sky at different times. Related software can then
easily detect objects (like asteroids) that move in relation to
background stars.
Over the next year or so, GNAT aims to deploy six more of these
3-telescope setups around the globe, with an ultimate goal of 48
worldwide locations.
The GNAT project needs analysts now, Craine said. Some 60,000
potential variable stars have been identified and require
follow-up observation.
And the data flow is expected to triple next spring. The project
will soon generate a half-million images a year. In addition to
space rocks, estimates suggest the observatory could find 45 new
supernovae each year.
The construction and operating costs of the global network: less
than that of a single, 39-inch (1-meter) telescope operated in
normal fashion, Craine said.
Something sneaky
Another project could be said to eclipse all others in
creativity.
Astronomers have found about 400 comet-like objects near and
beyond Pluto's orbit, in a region of the solar system known as
the Kuiper Belt. But they can't see small objects that far away,
and there are likely millions or billions of them to be found.
"We're going to have to do something sneaky," said
Stuart Marshall of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
His goal is to find Kuiper Belt Objects down to 1.2 miles (2
kilometers) in diameter.
Marshall and his colleagues are building an automated telescope
in Taiwan that will monitor several thousand stars, making
several images every second. If a Kuiper Belt Object passes in
front of a star, the effect will be just like an eclipse, as when
the Moon blocks the Sun's light. Astronomers call this sort of
stellar eclipse an occultation.
The Taiwanese-American Occultation Survey (TAOS) telescope, set
to start observing next year, will gather 80 to 100 gigabytes of
data every night. Its brains are managed by open-source Linux
software.
Marshall expects to find 10 or more small Kuiper Belt Objects
every year.
Now what?
Loads of data might sound like an astronomer's dream. But until
analyzed, the robotic observations are worthless.
"These are exciting things," said Jay Pasachoff, a
Williams College astronomer known for his involvement in
education. "The trick is to find ways to analyze [the
data]."
Pasachoff, not directly involved in the robotic projects, notes
that while there are many interested students, they have to be
trained by experienced astronomers before they can know what to
look for.
"It's not just a matter of throwing that data up,"
Pasachoff said in an interview. "You need support and
coordination."
One model to consider, he said, is the American Association of
Variable Star Observers (AAVSO). This non-profit organization,
set up in 1911, connects scientists, educators, students and
amateur astronomers around the world. The organization
coordinates some 300,000 observations a year and works to publish
results on behalf of its members.
The message delivered by Pasachoff and others: No matter how
sophisticated robots get, there will still be a role for humans
in exploring the night sky.
Copyright 2003, Space.com
==============
(4) A SEARCH FOR POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS ASTEROID 1998 OX4
Biggs JD, Slivkoff M: A search for the potentially hazardous
asteroid 1998 OX4: Implications for a possible close encounter in
2014. PUBLICATIONS OF THE ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETY OF AUSTRALIA. 19
(4): 422-424 2002
Small bodies of 100-500 m diameter can cause significant damage
on impact with the Earth. Such objects are difficult to detect
and track because they are intrinsically faint over most of their
orbit. We failed to detect one such lost and potentially
hazardous minor planet, 1998 OX4, during two observing sessions
in 2001, January. The positions searched were those calculated by
Milani et al. (2000) with their Virtual Impactors method. Using
some simple assumptions we estimate the probability that we
failed to detect 1998 OX4 due to it being obscured by objects in
the field of our observations is <2 x 10(-7). If the
assumptions in the Virtual Impactor model are valid we conclude
that an impact with 1998 OX4 is unlikely in 2014, January.
Furthermore, given the relatively large area we searched it is
also unlikely that this minor planet will have a very close
encounter with Earth in 2014.
Addresses:
Biggs JD, Perth Observ, 337 Walnut Rd, Bickley, WA 6076,
Australia
Perth Observ, Bickley, WA 6076, Australia
Curtin Univ Technol, Dept Appl Phys, Perth, WA 6845, Australia
Copyright © 2003 Institute for Scientific Information
===========
(5) METEOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ASTEROID (2101) ADONIS
Babadzhanov PB: Meteor showers associated with the near-Earth
asteroid (2101) Adonis. ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS 397 (1):
319-323 JAN 2003
The orbital evolution of the near-Earth asteroid (2101) Adonis
under gravitational action of six planet (Mercury to Saturn) is
investigated by the Halphen-Goryachev method. The theoretical
geocentric coordinates and velocities of four possible meteor
showers associated with this asteroid are determined. Using
published data, the theoretically predicted showers are
identified with the observed ones, namely, night-time
sigma-Capricornids and chi-Sagittariids, and day-time
chi-Capricornids and Capricornids-Sagittariids. The existence of
meteor showers associated with Adonis provides evidence
supporting the conjecture that this asteroid may be of a cometary
nature. The small 50-m near-Earth asteroid 1995 CS probably
represents a large Adonis fragment and belongs to a part of the
Adonis meteoroid stream, which produces the day-time
chi-Capricornids meteor shower.
Addresses:
Babadzhanov PB, Tajik Acad Sci, Inst Astrophys, Bukhoro Str 22,
Dushanbe 734042, Tajikistan
Tajik Acad Sci, Inst Astrophys, Dushanbe 734042, Tajikistan
Isaac Newton Inst Chile, Tajikistan Branch, Dushanbe 734042,
Tajikistan
Copyright © 2003 Institute for Scientific Information
=========
(6) AFTER EROS: FUTURE MULTIPLE-TARGET DEDICATED ASTEROID
MISSIONS
Taylor RLS, Fearn DG: After Eros: Future multiple-target
dedicated asteroid missions. JBIS-JOURNAL OF THE BRITISH
INTERPLANETARY SOCIETY 56 (1-2): 2-32 JAN-FEB 2003
This paper reviews briefly the results of space-probe
asteroid-encounters and their implications for the astronomical
study of these important bodies, with particular reference to the
NEAR-Shoemaker (NS) Mission. NS was the first space project
dedicated exclusively to the study, from close orbit, of an
asteroid; the S(IV)-type 433 Eros. It also achieved the first,
originally unplanned, soft landing on an asteroid. In addition to
studying the physical, structural and dynamic characteristics of
Eros, the NS mission sought to resolve the question of the
inexact match between the remote and laboratory reflectance
spectra of asteroids and meteorites - that is of presumed source
and sample materials. Although brilliantly successful in
collecting comprehensive data characterising the physical nature
of Eros, the spectra obtained by NEAR do not allow the
unequivocal resolution of the important source/sample question.
More recently, NASA announced (21 December 2001) a new
Discovery-class mission named 'DAWN', that is scheduled for
launch in 2006. Dawn will rendezvous with and orbit sequentially
the two largest main belt asteroids 4 Vesta and 1 Ceres, each for
a period of about 11 months in a mission lasting a total of nine
years. Although important targets in terms of understanding the
early differentiation and evolution of partly evolved
proto-planets, neither of these large bodies, with estimated
diameters of 528 and 932 km respectively, is representative of
undifferentiated primordial asteroid states or materials. In this
paper, it is suggested that a programme of relatively low cost,
multiple-target, missions to explore asteroids within the main
belt is both technologically possible and scientifically
necessary. Determining the nature and origin of asteroids is of
high significance in developing a fundamental understanding of
the formation of star/ planet systems in general and the solar
system in particular. Multiple-target missions are suggested as a
cost-effective means of conducting the detailed exploration of a
significant number of S, C, and other types of main belt
asteroids - and ultimately for the study of the far distant
Kuiper-Belt objects.
Addresses:
Taylor RLS, Probabil Res Grp, 4 Abingdon Rd, London SW16 5QP,
England
Probabil Res Grp, London SW16 5QP, England
EP Solut, Fleet GU52 6HS, Hants, England
Copyright © 2003 Institute for Scientific Information
=============
(7) THE "TROJAN" ASTEROIDS AS BASES TO MONITOR OTHER
ASTEROIDS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TO EARTH
Maccone C, Bussolino L: The "Trojan" asteroids as bases
to monitor other asteroids potentially dangerous for earth
JBIS-JOURNAL OF THE BRITISH INTERPLANETARY SOCIETY. 55 (3-4):
109-114 MAR-APR 2002
The Lagrangian Points L4 and L5 of the Sun-Jupiter system and the
Lagrangian point L5 of the Sun-Mars system are considered for the
following two types of missions to monitor asteroid hazards to
Earth:
(1) Missions going from the Earth to either of the Jupiter
Trojans at L4 or L5 by virtue of a Hohmann transfer requiring
about 2.5 years of flight. Once there, a reconnaissance mission
could determine which one of the Trojans is more suitable to host
an optical telescope to detect the NEOs, to be launched in a
subsequent mission. Alternatively, the Jupiter Trojans could be
used to host a permanent space base for missiles capable of
deflecting the trajectory of dangerous NEOs when these are so far
away from the Sun that their Sun-centric speed is very low. The
deflecting missile performance would thus be fully optimized,
increasing the probability of success of a dangerous NEO's
deflection mission.
(2) Missions with the same goals as above but departing from Mars
rather than from the Earth. Of course, this set of missions
belongs to the far future, when one or more permanent human bases
will have been established on Mars, and the relevant launch
facilities could be used. However, the basic advantage of such
missions with respect to those described at (1) will be the
shorter flight time and smaller Deltav that we compute in this
paper.
Addresses:
Maccone C, Alenia Spazio SpA, Strada Antica Collegno 256, I-10146
Turin, Italy
Alenia Spazio SpA, I-10146 Turin, Italy
Copyright © 2003 Institute for Scientific Information
===============
(8) WAS THE EARTH RESEEDED BY IMPACTS OF RETURNING EJECTA?
Wells LE, Armstrong JC, Gonzalez G: Reseeding of early Earth by
impacts of returning ejecta during the late heavy bombardment.
ICARUS 162 (1): 38-46 MAR 2003
Mounting attention has focused on interplanetary transfer of
microorganisms (panspermia), particularly in reference to
exchange between Mars and Earth. In most cases, however, such
exchange requires millions of years, over which time the
transported microorganisms must remain viable. During a large
impact on Earth, however, previous work (J.C. Armstrong et al.,
2002, Icarus 160, 183-196) has shown that substantial amounts of
material return to the planet of origin over a much shorter
period of time (< 5000 years), considerably mitigating the
challenges to the survival of a living organism. Conservatively
evaluating experiments performed [by others] on Bacillus subtilis
and Deinococcus radiodurans to constrain biological survival
under impact conditions, we estimate that if the Earth were hit
by a sterilizing impactor similar to 300 km in diameter, with a
relative velocity of 30 km s(-1) (such as may have occurred
during the Late Heavy Bombardment), an initial cell population in
the ejecta of order 10(3)-10(5) cells kg(-1) would in most cases
be sufficient for a single modem organism to survive and return
to an again-clement planet 3000-5000 years later. Although little
can be said about the characteristics or distribution of ancient
life, our calculations suggest that impact reseeding is a
possible means by which life, if present, could have survived the
Late Heavy Bombardment. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All
rights reserved.
Addresses:
Wells LE, Univ Washington, Ctr Astrobiol & Early Evolut, Box
357940, Seattle, WA 98195 USA
Univ Washington, Ctr Astrobiol & Early Evolut, Seattle,
WA 98195 USA
Univ Washington, Sch Oceanog, Seattle, WA 98195 USA
Univ Washington, Dept Astron, Seattle, WA 98195 USA
Iowa State Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Phys & Astron, Ames,
IA 50011 USA
Copyright © 2003 Institute for Scientific Information
=============LETTERS TO THE MODERATOR =============
(9) PITY THE POOR MINISTERS
Nigel Holloway < nigel.holloway@ukaea.org.uk
>
Dear Benny,
In CCNet 48/2003 (June 2) was quoted a letter from the Rt.Hon
Peter McGauran, Australian Minister for Science, responding to
Jay Tate's enquiries about the low priority given by Austrialia
to the NEO Impact issue. Mr McGaurin's letter contained the
following very enlightening text:
"In 1995, a review of astronomy research by the Australian
Academy of Science's National Committee for Astronomy established
that areas other than asteroid detection had higher priority in
the astronomy community. The funding priorities were reviewed in
2001, and there was no change to those identified in 1995.
Astronomers placed access to the major international Gemini
telescope project, and participation in the early stages of
international work towards a major new telescope - the Square
Kilometre Array (SKA), as their top priority, to which the
Government responded."
Mr McGaurin's position is not unique. Many other Ministers are
faced with the same question, and with lobbying from those,
including myself, who, on the basis of cost benefit analysis and
the number of potentially affected persons (all of us), believe
that the NEO impact hazard deserves higher priority than it is
getting, and should be the world's top priority astronomy project
until the risk is under much better control.
Like most other Ministers, Mr McGaurin has asked his national
experts the sensible question:
"How does the priority of this project compare with that of
other astronomy projects which the Government is funding?"
and received the reply (twice) "It's lower than the lowest
priority astronomy project you are already funding."
For a Minister and Government, something with a priority below
the lowest priority current astronomy project has a very low
priority indeed. Do we expect a Minister, a non-expert, to
respond to his National Committee of experts with "You're
all wrong and I know better." To give Mr McGauran some
credit, he has at least explained the process by which he came to
his 'wait and see' decision.
If blame is appropriate, let us instead blame those who, with the
expertise to understand and assess the facts, still put
preservation of their pet projects above the preservation of
their planet. If they are fooling Ministers, they are playing a
dangerous game.
Nigel Holloway
===========
(10) CLARIFICATION ON RADIATION BELTS
John Michael Williams < jwill@AstraGate.net
>
Hi Benny.
In commenting on my recent letter, Fred Singer writes, ". .
. (CCNet 29/05/03), I just wish to point out that radiation belts
do not 'protect' from solar or cosmic radiation."
Quite right: I oversimplified. The radiation belts are a RESULT
of the protection offered by the Earth's magnetic field.
The belts show that we are being protected, but they themselves
do not constitute protection. Charged particles from the Sun or
outer space (cosmic rays) are deflected, and a certain fraction
end up orbitting the Earth instead of reaching the orbital
altitude of the Space Shuttle or the surface of the Earth.
Retrospectively, I think I mentioned them because I wanted to
remind readers that there are belts of high radiation through
which invading alien microorganisms would have to pass. However,
the average flux over an interstellar journey would be about the
same, whether the charged particles were encountered in more or
less uniform concentration.
John
jwill@AstraGate.net
John Michael Williams
===========
(11) CONGRATULATIONS TO ESA: WE ARE MAKING PROGRESS
Andy Smith < astrosafe22000@yahoo.com
>
Hello Benny and CCNet,
It was thrilling to hear of the successful launch of the ESA MARS
EXPRESS spacecraft, aboard the SOYUZ/FREGAT (Starsem)
system...and we wish for great mission success. We have urged the
development of more systems capable of asteroid/comet
interception and deflection and this is certainly an important
new member of the group, which we are calling the Class A
Planetary Defense Systems (PDS). It joins the DELTA II/DEEP
IMPACT, NEAR, DEEP SPACE 1, etc. family of systems.
Great Development Potentials
Both group systems can send the first generation of
asteroid/comet interception spacecraft (1 ton/50% payload) on
direct deflection missions. We think these spacecraft can
effectively deflect ACE (Asteroid/Comet Emergency) Magnitude
Class 1, 2 and 3 NEO (Near-Earth Objects). These are the 50 to
200 meter-wide rock-bombs (mag. 25-22) that comprise more than
80% of the threat population (destructive energy levels from
about 10 to 1,000 megatons). Both group systems have promising
growth potentials and could also be expanded to become
second-generation systems (5 ton spacecraft), which might be used
against larger NEO.
We welcome these impressive programs and we continue to urge the
systems developers and operators to prepare for rapid emergency
deployment (months instead of years), to develop plans for the
use of a variety of deflection or mitigation payloads (inertial
and super-safe explosive) and to develop cooperative contingency
plans.
We Are Making Progress
It has been about 14 years since our global "wake-up
call" (1989 FC near-miss) and about 8 years since the
spectacular demonstration of what planetary impacts can do
(Shoemaker-Levy 9/Jupiter).....and we are proud of our progress,
to-date.
We have increased our global NEO discovery rate by two
orders-of-magnitude (thanks to LINEAR, NEAT, SPACEWATCH, LONEOS
and all of the other active search programs and dedicated
individuals and to the folks who have supported them)....and we
are rapidly developing the next generation of asteroid telescopes
(PAN-STARRS, LSST and the orbiting telescope systems).
We now have two major mitigation-capable defensive systems. We
have a much better understanding of the impact dangers and we are
beginning to plan for some effective civil emergency responses.
Our Responsibility
We are the first generation, in history (100,000 generations or
so), with the ability to understand this great danger and to
protect ourselves.....and we are responding. Much of the effort
is by volunteers, but governmental and institutional support is
growing....thanks to the efforts of the SPACEGUARD and SPACE
SHIELD Foundations, and many other organizations, institutions
and individuals, including the PLANETARY SOCIETY, SPACE FRONTIER,
IAU, SPACE.COM, AIAA, CCNet, etc. BRAVO to all of you. Many
thanks for all of your efforts and please keep up the good work.
Cheers....Andy Smith
International Planetary Protection Alliance(IPPA)
astrosafe22000@yahoo.com
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