PLEASE NOTE:
*
CCNet DIGEST, 3 July 1998
-------------------------
(1) WELL DONE, DAVID & ROBERT: ASTRONOMERS FIND NEW CLASS OF
ASTEROID
Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>
(2) SOME INFORMATION ON O.D.A.S.: NEO RESEARCH FROM A EUROPEAN
PERSPECTIVE
Gerhard Hahn, DLR, Berlin-Adlershof <Gerhard.Hahn@dlr.de>
(3) DEBRIS SMASHES BUDGET FOR SPACE STATION
NEW SCIENTIST, 4 July 1998
(4) EARTH DEFENSE & BIOSPHERE PROTECTION
Bob Kobres <bkobres@uga.edu>
(5) SPACEGUARD UK ON THE AIR
Jonathan TATE <fr77@dial.pipex.com>
(6) POPULAR PHONE-IN HOSTED BY JAY TATE
Michael Martin-Smith <martin@miff.demon.co.uk>
(7) ARMAGEDDON IS SHEER HELL, SAYS FILM CRITIC
Paul Almond <novel@compuserve.com>
=======================
(1) WELL DONE, DAVID & ROBERT: ASTRONOMERS FIND NEW CLASS OF
ASTEROID
From Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>
[http://www.ifa.hawaii.edu/info/press-releases/1998DK36.html]
Institute for Astronomy
University of Hawaii
Contacts: Dr. David Tholen
808-956-6930 tholen@ifa.hawaii.edu
Mr. Robert
Whiteley 808-956-6700 robw@ifa.hawaii.edu
July 1, 1998
Astronomers Find New Class of Asteroid
University of Hawaii astronomers have discovered a new type of
asteroid, whose orbits lie completely within the orbit of the
Earth.
Previously, all known asteroids traveled in an orbit farther from
the
Sun than the Earth, over at least a portion of their journey.
"All other efforts to discover asteroids on a collision
course with the
Earth are being directed at a region of the sky almost opposite
the
Sun," said David Tholen, planetary astronomer at the
Institute for
Astronomy.
"The significance of this discovery is that we would have
otherwise
never found this new asteroid because it apparently doesn't
travel to
that region of the sky being scanned by other search
efforts."
If such an asteroid's orbit around the Sun intersects with the
Earth's
orbit, it could hit the Earth and we would have never seen it
coming,
said Tholen. We would have been caught unaware by an asteroid
approaching us from the daytime side of the sky, he said.
Tholen and graduate student Robert Whiteley made the observation
using
a specialized camera fitted on the University of Hawaii's
2.24-meter
telescope atop Mauna Kea last February.
While scanning the dusk and dawn skies to assess the size and
number of
asteroids within the Earth's orbit, Whiteley spotted the object,
since
designated 1998 DK36, on his computer screen, shortly after
Tholen had
recorded the images at Mauna Kea Observatory and sent them to
Whiteley's
computer via the Internet.
Additional observations made the following night made it possible
to
compute a preliminary orbit of the object around the Sun. Tholen
said
the exact size and shape of the asteroid orbit remain uncertain.
However, the orbit's farthest point from the Sun could be
determined
relatively accurately, and it appears to be very close to, but
slightly
inside the orbit of the Earth.
The asteroid is thought to be about 40 meters in diameter,
similar in
size to the one that flattened the Tunguska region of Siberia on
June
30, 1908, as well as the iron object that produced Meteor Crater
in
Arizona 50,000 years ago.
Could it collide with the Earth?
"We were unable to obtain enough observations to perform a
formal
probability calculation, though the best-fitting orbit has the
object
passing an apparently safe 750,000 miles from the Earth's
orbit," said
Tholen. "To do a better job with such discoveries, we really
need to
have a telescope that we can dedicate to such difficult
observations."
"1998 DK36 is nothing to lose sleep over," said Tholen.
"It's the ones
we haven't found yet that are of concern."
Black & white and color diagrams showing the orbit are
available:
* PostScript (black and white,
http://www.ifa.hawaii.edu/images/1998DK36/dk36.ps)
* PDF (black and white,
http://www.ifa.hawaii.edu/images/1998DK36/dk36.pdf)
* Image (GIF, black and white,
http://www.ifa.hawaii.edu/images/1998DK36/dk36.gif)
* PostScript (color,
http://www.ifa.hawaii.edu/images/1998DK36/dk36-color.ps)
* PDF (color,
http://www.ifa.hawaii.edu/images/1998DK36/dk36-color.pdf)
================================
(2) SOME INFORMATION ON O.D.A.S.: NEO RESEARCH FROM A EUROPEAN
PERSPECTIVE
From Gerhard Hahn, DLR, Berlin-Adlershof <Gerhard.Hahn@dlr.de>
Dear Benny,
We would like to ask you to circulate this short communication in
the
CC-Digest in order to spread information on the O.D.A.S. program
to a
wider circle of people interested in NEOs.
With kind regards
Gerhard Hahn,
on behalf of the O.D.A.S. Team
--------
O. D. A. S.
The Observatoire de la Cote d'Azur (OCA) - DLR Asteroid Survey
has been
operational for more than a year. Despite its limited resources
it has
contributed significantly to the positional database of the Minor
Planet Center. During the period of its operation 3 NEOs and 7
Marscrossers have been discovered. Almost 6000 asteroids have
been
observed and more than 1100 new designations have been assigned
by the
MPC. A total of more than 22700 automatically determined
astrometric
positions have been published so far.
The Survey is a joint venture by the DLR Institute of Planetary
Exploration and the OCA. It is the only professionally operating
systematic NEO search program in Europe. O.D.A.S. was originally
developed to test both hardware and software, and to experiment
with
different observing techniques in order to gain the necessary
experience to perform highly automated detection of moving
objects. It
is now operated on a routine basis for 8-12 nights per month,
using the
90cm Schmidt telescope of the OCA in Calern.
Although the results obtained so far may not be comparable to the
large
U.S. surveys, we think the achievements of O.D.A.S. show that we
do
have the capability and significantly contribute to an
international
NEO search program.
The total absence of any word on non-US efforts in NEO search and
research activities in some recent documents circulated by David
Morrison and Clark Chapman to the international community shows
that
there is an obvious lack of information, that we would like to
fill
partially with this short communication.
We do feel that the existence of other active NEO search program
should
be mentioned in the discussion of the future organisation of a so
called Spaceguard Survey.
We also think that the effort by the Beijing NEO search program
operated at the Xinglong station is worth mentioning too. And
most
importantly, the truly globally spread network of both
professional and
amateur groups performing the necessary follow up obserations.
Consulting the daily updates and other NEO related pages provided
by
the excellent services of the IAU's Minor Planet Center gives a
good
opportunity to see the international contributions actually made
on a
routine basis. See e.g.
http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/iau/NEO/TheNEOPage.html)
The latest up-to-date information on O.D.A.S. can be found on our
webpages under URL
http://earn.dlr.de/odas/odas.htm
On behalf of the O.D.A.S. team
Gerhard Hahn Hans Scholl
Martin Hoffmann Alain Maury
Gerhard Neukum Dominique Albanese
===================
(3) DEBRIS SMASHES BUDGET FOR SPACE STATION
From NEW SCIENTIST, 4 July 1998
Protecting the International Space Station from being puntuated
by
shards of space debris could add as much as $5 billion to the
project's
spiralling costs.
Nobody can agree on the staion's true price tag. Earlier this
year, an
independent team of investigators said that NASA's estimate of
$17.4
billion was more than $7 billion too low. The General Accounting
Office
(GAO), the research arm of the US Congress, has estimated the
total
development cost to be about $21.9 billion.
But Allen Li, an associate director with the GAO, told the House
of
Representatives Committee on Science last week that both of these
estimates overlook the problem of space debris. "NASA
recently updated
its overall requirement for space debris tracking to include the
ability to track and catalogue objects as small as 1
centimetre," Li
told the committee. But that will mean a major upgrade, as the
system,
now run by the Department of Defense's Space Surveillance
Network, has
trouble tracking particles less than 10 centimetres across.
The station's hull could be punctuated by these particles.
"It's
capable of withstanding pieces of debris up to 1 and perhaps 2
centimetres," Goldin told the committee. "Tracking down
to 1 centimetre
is a very tough job. It's something that we must work on."
How this work will be funded is still unclear. Upgrading the
system
will require antennas with higher resolution and improved
signal-processing facilities. Goldin told the committee that any
extra
costs incurred by the space station would come out of NASA's
existing
budget. But if the cost is as high as $5 billion, as Li's report
to
Congress suggests, that would be impossible. "There's no
more water in
that well," says James Sensenbrenner, who chairs the House
science
committee.
Charles Seife, Washington DC
(C) 1998 New Scientist
==============
(4) EARTH DEFENSE & BIOSPHERE PROTECTION
From Bob Kobres <bkobres@uga.edu>
In response to Juan Zapata-Arauco's concern over effective means
of
diverting PHOs, I will first point out that I have not suggested
that
'Star Wars' (SDI) technology could be directly applied to Earth
Defense. What I have tried to encourage is a redirection of
talents
and resources, which have historically been applied to various
areas of
weapon research, to the task of biosphere protection.
My acceptance of using nuclear devices is based strictly on the
need of
high energy density and, as I have pointed out, such energy does
not
need to be limited to application via thermonuclear
explosion. See:
CCNet DEBATES, 3 June 1998.
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccjn98w1.html
Regarding Asphaug's and other's work: I'm glad to see that our
computational tools are allowing us to abandon the homogeneous
'spherical chicken' description of small solar system
bodies. The
obvious point is that we need to develop a greater empirical
understanding of the various objects that could affect the future
of
our biosphere. Not using available time to aggressively learn all
we
can about potentially threatening objects and how best to
influence
their orbits is one of the main reasons that a wait-and-see
approach
could result in tragedy. When--NOT IF--the need arises it would
be
preferable to know, rather than hope, that we can affect the PHO
as the
situation requires. Though a genuine threat may not occur for
many
decades, we will lose nothing by beginning to empirically educate
ourselves now.
This popular concept of a 'Star Wars' type shield against
asteroids and
comets seems to come from the sci-fi/space-movie mindset. An
accelerated international effort to effect a solid industrial
presence
in Space is the type of action that can provide the greatest
insurance
against future cosmic crackups.
As an aside: Because the realization that impact events have
greatly
influenced the course of Life on this planet is relatively new,
there
is more theory kicking around than fact. The actual gauge of
recent
events however, is recorded beneath our feet. It would seem
advantageous in gaining a better understanding of the
contemporary
frequency of occurrence, as well as the real influence on the
biosphere, to increase funding of investigative efforts that
could dig
up such information. Though many current studies of
sudden-global-climate-change are likely to be sifting through
time
periods that experienced an impact event, it is still common to
find
that an accretion event is not even considered as a potential
trigger.
This situation is changing but I think that too often the 'giggle
factor,' combined with a very conservative attitude about
frequency of
occurrence, continues to mitigate serious attempts to probe for
extraterrestrial signals in available cores and samples. Any
suggestions as to how we can help increase funding and interest
in
research that is better focused on identifying recent
environmentally
significant impact events?
Still looking.
bobk
Bob Kobres
==================
(5) SPACEGUARD UK ON THE AIR
From Jonathan TATE <fr77@dial.pipex.com>
Fronting up a two hour phone-in programme, hosted by James Whale
of
“Talk Radio” between 11 pm and 1 am is probably not
most people’s idea
of fun, especially when combined with a two hour drive at each
end!
However, no offer of an opportunity to put the Spaceguard case is
to be
sniffed at, even at 24 hours notice; all the more so when
audience
figures of 3 million are being talked about.
While Mr. Whale has the reputation of not treating fools lightly
(or so
I was warned), this can be turned to fine advantage once he, as
an
individual, is convinced of your case. I believe that we
managed to
achieve this last night, leading to a pretty smooth ride.
The main lesson to take away from events such as this is that
people
are interested in the subject of Planetary Defence, and do want
to
learn more. On the other hand, public interest is very limited in
its
duration. Some of the questions that were asked during the
programme
are worth noting, as they represent some of the topics that
people most
want to know about. Some of the typical questions were:
? Aren’t the Americans already sorting this problem out with
secret
Star Wars technology?
? If a potential impact is predicted, is the public going to be
told?
? Why worry ? – There are too many other things to worry
about on Earth
– nuclear weapons, chemical warfare, famine etc.
? Does it really matter if the human race is wiped out? Why
interfere
with nature?
? What was the Tunguska object?
? Would you be safe in a deep mine, or in a high flying aircraft?
? Isn’t all of this Spaceguard stuff just a ruse to enable
scientists
to keep their jobs?
? Are not the odds of a major impact too small to worry about?
? How do we know that all of the craters that we see are not
billions
of years old?
? Is it possible that previous civilisations have been destroyed
by
impact events already?
? Can we mine asteroids?
? If an asteroid was found on a collision course with Earth, what
could
we do about it?
? What is the difference between asteroids and comets?
? Was Velikovsky right in "Worlds in Collision"?
? Could gas and coal come from other planets that have passed
close to
or hit the Earth?
? What will happen when all of the planets are in alignment -
will it
cause a massive shift of the Earth's crust?
? Can astrononomers really predict orbits as accurately as they
say
they can?
? Are we really in danger? The last big impact was the one
that killed
the dinosaurs.
? Is it worth spending money on saving the lives of people who
haven't
been born yet?
? Would an impact really cause as much damage as you are saying?
How do
you know?
? How do you know how many Earth crossing asteroids there are out
there?
? How close can a comet come to the Earth before it becomes a
danger?
? Isn't the fact that governments are not taking this threat
seriously
proof that it's not worth worrying about?
Perhaps the most telling question is the last one. Many of them
may
sound pretty simplistic, even stupid, but it is always worth
remembering that most people know little or nothing about
astronomy,
let alone the NEO threat! The greatest dangers are to be
too
"technical", or to be patronising.
As an opportunity to spread the message such programmes are
enormously
valuable, and well worth participating in. After all, one of the
major
goals of Spaceguard UK is to "provide a national United
Kingdom
information service to raise public awareness of the Near Earth
Object
threat, and technology available to predict and avoid dangerous
impacts."
My thanks to Nick Pope, a new member of Spaceguard UK, for the
introduction to "Talk Radio". We clearly have
some way to go, but at
least we are trying!
Jay Tate
Spaceguard UK
===================
(6) POPULAR PHONE-IN HOSTED BY JAY TATE
From Michael Martin-Smith <martin@miff.demon.co.uk>
Benny,
Last night's Talk Radio, hosted by James Whale, gave
Spaceguard-UK's
Jay Tate well over an hour as host to a national phone-- in, on
the
subject of the threat from asteroid/comet collisions, from 23-00
hours
till after midnight. Audience figures are usually estimated as 3
millions or so.
I was able to have a three way discussion with Jay and James
Whale,
pointing up the constructive possibilities of NEOs, in particular
their
role in building a human industrial future in Space( carrot and
stick!)
The growing convergence of ideas between Spaceguard and Space Age
is a
natural development, and last night found its biggest ever
audience--
the majority of whom, I would say, are of a younger generation?
James
Whale, as a character, is very frank, and is quite inclined to
let you
know if he is unsympathetic to your viewpoint; in our case, he
came
over as fairminded and, I think,favourably impressed . He handled
an important if complicated issue, with considerable skill A good
evening's work by Jay, and Mr Whale, for whom congratulations are
well
in order.
Michael Martin-Smith
================
(7) ARMAGEDDON IS SHEER HELL, SAYS FILM CRITIC
From Paul Almond <novel@compuserve.com>
Dear Benny,
One of the many funny quotes your upscale readers might not have
caught:
"In Armageddon, Bay has attained his noxious nirvana. There
isn't a
scene in the film that exists on any level except as a hard sell.
"If this 'movie as trailor' thing really catches on, it's
the death of
story telling -- not to mention, grace, subtlety, coherence,
character
development, beauty. It's Armageddon all right."
Peter Rainer, in the Los Angeles New Times July 2nd.
Best wishes, Paul
Almond
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