PLEASE NOTE:
*
CCNet 54/2003 - 8 July 2003
---------------------------
"Humanity lives with a calculus of infinite devastation
times infinitesimal probability."
--Steven Ward
(1) DUTY TO EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED
(2) MINOR PLANET WORKSHOP
(3) BBC SWEEPS EUROPEAN ONLINE AWARDS
(4) ASTRONOMERS FIND 'HOME FROM HOME' - 90 LIGHT YEARS AWAY!
(5) HAVE MIRROR MICROMETEORITES BEEN DETECTED? (NOT THAT I AM
AWARE OF)
(6) WILL EAST COAST VANISH IN 2880? (I DON'T THINK SO)
(7) LONESOME HUNT BY ONE PALE BLUE DOT
(8) RISK OF FATALITIES
(9) EMPEROR CONSTANTINE'S MILVIAN BRIDGE VISION, CONVERSION
=============
(1) DUTY TO EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED
Evan Seamone <eseamone@yahoo.com>
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE ....
Law Article Explores the "Duty to Expect the
Unexpected" In Responding to Extreme Global Threats
Dateline: July 2, 2003 ...
New York, New York
Contact Name: Tracy Horton
Contact Phone: 212-854-1604
Web Address: http://www.columbia.edu/cu/jtl/
New York, New York - July 2, 2003 - As nations mobilize to combat
different international disasters, it seems hard to develop
general prevention, mitigation, or reaction strategies that could
apply to all of them. After all, strategies developed by
vaccination scientists to control the spread of the deadly Severe
Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) won't likely extinguish
trans-border forest fires. Yet, some legal practitioners research
similarities in the measures adopted by international
organizations to deal with no-notice disasters. When nations
adopt identical measures in their combined approaches, these
rules may carry the weight of international law. If "rules
of the road" can be identified, they could apply to more
uncommon disasters and also inform us about international
obligations to deal with serious ethical dilemmas.
In "The Duty to Expect the Unexpected," a recent
article published in the Columbia Journal of Transnational Law,
Evan R. Seamone, a lawyer and policy analyst, offers a new
solution to the problem of preparing for asteroid and comet
collisions with the Earth on an international scale. The article
identifies the responsibilities of nations to implement various
mitigation strategies before governments are aware of potential
threatening space objects. A key example is the mandate to
conduct simulations of different aspects of the potential harm in
an effort to answer questions where no answers exist. Seamone
bases the numerous guidelines proposed in the article on a
comparative analysis of regulations adopted to deal with three
no-notice disasters with the potential to harm multiple nations
simultaneously.
· The first scenario analyzes measures adopted by nations to
deal with biological terrorism and nuclear reactor emergencies,
such as the recent TOPOFF exercises instituted by the U.S. and
some of its neighbors to prepare "top officials" for
emergencies and International Nuclear Emergency Exercises (INEX)
facilitated by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD).
· The second scenario analyzes the rules and practices adopted
by of the Northeastern Compact, an organization operating to
protect regions of Canada and the Northeastern U.S. to combat
trans-boundary forest fires.
· The third scenario analyzes the International Health
Regulations and other measures adopted by the World Health
Organization (WHO) to deal with the problem of Emerging and
Re-emerging Infectious Diseases (ERIDS).
These little/no-notice disasters are unaffected by borders and
their reach is not limited by ethnicity, religion, or gender.
Seamone argues that common solutions to such international
problems provide the foundation for several governmental
obligations. The measures are all related to a precautionary
principle that requires action to address harm before it occurs,
even without certainty over the time or extent of the damage
threatened. The principle is rooted in the undeniable
responsibility of nations to preserve their citizens and requires
international cooperation when the harm threatened is so great
that no effort by a single nation is enough. The article explains
how understanding the method by which these legal theories
translate into practice can provide further guidance on dealing
with the most difficult crises faced by the global community.
IF INTERESTED in receiving an offprint of Evan R. Seamone's
"The Duty to Expect the Unexpected: Mitigating Extreme
Natural Threats to the Global Commons Such as Asteroid and Comet
Impacts with the Earth," the Columbia Journal of
Transnational Law can facilitate such orders. (Author's e-mail: eseamone@yahoo.com.)
=============
(2) MINOR PLANET WORKSHOP
Michael Paine <mpaine@tpg.com.au>
Dear Benny
The draft program for the Australian Minor Planet Workshop is now
online at http://www.nelsonbay.com/%7Egc/AMPW.htm
In particular, note the topic of discussion at 3.15 on the
Saturday.
regards
Michael Paine
----------
Australian Minor Planet Workshop
July 25, 26 & 27, 2003
Nelson Bay, N.S.W.
Draft Program
Friday, 25 July 2003
2:00 PM - 6:00 PM - Session Chair: Colin Bembrick
2:15 PM - Greg Crawford - Welcoming remarks and announcements
2:15 PM - 3:15 PM - Richard P. Binzel - Opening Keynote Address:
"Asteroids Come of Age"
3:45 PM - 4:15 PM - Steve Larson "Siding Spring NEO
Survey"
4:15 PM - 4:45 PM - Steve Chesley "Non-gravitational
accelerations on
comets. (And asteroids, too!)"
4:45 PM - 5:15 PM - Jean-Luc Margot "Minor Planet
Binaries" (to be
confirmed) or free discussion
Saturday, 26 July 2003
9:00 AM - 12:30 PM - Session Chair: Alan Harris
9:00 AM - 9:15 AM - Steve Chesley "Quantification of Impact
Induced Hazards"
9:15 AM - 9:30 AM - Ted Bowell "The Lowell Observatory Near
Earth Object
Search"
9:30 AM - 9:45 AM - Alan Gilmore "NEO Astrometry at Mt
John"
9:45 AM - 10:15 AM - Bill Yeung "The Three Year Experience
of an Amateur
Asteroid Hunter"
10:15 AM - 10:30 AM - Steve Chesley "J002E3: The putative
return of the
Apollo 12 S-IVB."
11:15 AM - 11:45 AM - Tony Beresford "Man-made satellites
& Minor Planet
Research"
11:45 AM - 12:00 PM - Greg Crawford "Using TheSky/CCDSoftV5
for Astrometry"
12:00 PM - 12:15 PM - David Higgins "Using Canopus for
Astrometry"
12:15 PM - 12:30 PM - Bill Yeung
"Auto Astrometry with PinPoint"
2:00 PM - 5:00 PM - Session Chair: Ted Bowell
2:00 PM - 2:30 PM - Dan Klinglesmith "Remote Observing in
Education and
Asteroid Observing"
2:30 PM - 3:00 PM - Mike Nolan "Radar imaging of Near Earth
Asteroids"
3:00 PM - 3:15 PM - Syuichi Nakano "Japanese Comet and
Asteroid
observations in the past 10 years"
3:15 PM - 3:30 PM - Ted Bowell, moderator
Discussion: How can we re-activate observers in Japan, and
activate
observers in Australia and New Zealand?"
4:00 PM - 4:15 PM - Ellen Howell "Asteroid Colours: Clues to
Composition"
4:15 PM - 4:30 PM - Zhao Haibin "Asteroids Search Plan of
Purple
Mountain Observatory (People's Republic of China)"
4:30 PM - 5:00 PM - Practice of astrometry or free time
Sunday, 27 July 2003 9:00 AM - 12:30 PM - Session Chair: Greg
Crawford
9:00 AM - 9:30 AM - Alan Harris "Binaries, rubble piles,
slow and fast
rotators: recent results from asteroid lightcurve studies"
9:30 AM - 10:00 AM - Colin Bembrick "Recent Asteroid
Photometry by
Australian Amateurs"
10:45 AM - 11:15 AM - David Higgins "A new technique for
capturing and
reducing light curve data for slow rotating asteroids"
11:15 AM - 11:45 AM - Tom Richards "Packages and Pitfalls -
comparing
AIP, MaxIm and Mira for photometry of moving objects"
Sunday, 27 July 2003 2:00 PM - 5:00 PM - Session Chair: Ray
Smartt
2:00 PM - 2:30 PM - Dave Herald "Diameters and profiles of
asteroids
derived from stellar occultations"
2:30 PM - 3:00 PM - Ted Bowell "Lowell Observatory Asteroid
Web Services"
3:00 PM - 3:30 PM - Gareth Williams "The MPC and the World
Wide Web"
4:00 PM - 4:15 PM - Alan Harris - Summation
4:15 PM - 4:45 PM - Alan Harris, moderator
Concluding Panel Discussion: "What Do You Want Us To
Observe?"
============
(3) BBC SWEEPS EUROPEAN ONLINE AWARDS
BBC News Online, 4 July 2003
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3042910.stm
BBC News Online has won eight of the 21 prizes on offer at the
annual European Online Journalism (EOJ) awards.
At a ceremony in Barcelona, the Outstanding Contribution to
Online Journalism award went to Mike Smartt, editor-in-chief of
BBC News Interactive.
Judges said the award was "for an individual achievement in
protecting and defending online rights and freedoms".
Dr David Whitehouse, BBC News Online's science correspondent, won
the best news story broken on the net.
That was for his story "Space Rock on Collision
Course", about the 2002 discovery of an asteroid which could
hit the Earth in 2019. Dr Whitehouse has now won awards for four
years running.
============
(4) ASTRONOMERS FIND 'HOME FROM HOME' - 90 LIGHT YEARS AWAY!
Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>
[ http://www.pparc.ac.uk/Nw/Md/Press/HomeFromHome.asp
]
Particle Physics and Astronomy Research Council
Swindon, U.K.
For more information please contact:
UK
Dr Hugh Jones
Liverpool John Moores University
Mobile: +44 (0) 7956 945276 (will be available during the
conference on this number)
Tel: +44 (0) 151 231 2909 (From Friday onwards)
Email: hraj@astro.livjm.ac.uk
Homepage: http://www.astro.livjm.ac.uk/~hraj
Dr Alan Penny
Rutherford Appleton Laboratory
Tel: +44 (0) 1235 445675
Mobile: +44 (0) 7952-244-350
Email: alan.penny@rl.ac.uk
Homepage: http://ast.star.rl.ac.uk/penny
Julia Maddock
PPARC Press Office
Tel: +44 (0) 1793 442094
Email: Julia.Maddock@pparc.ac.uk
AUSTRALIA
Dr Chris Tinney
Anglo Australian Observatory
Tel: +61 2 9372 4849
Mobile: +61 0416 092 117
Email: cgt@aaoepp.aao.gov.au
Dr Brad Carter
University of Southern Queensland
Mobile +61 0401 337 319
Email: carterb@usq.edu.au
Helen Sim
Communications Manager, CSIRO
Tel: +61 2 9372 4251
Email: hsim@atnf.csiro.au
USA
Carnegie Institution of Washington
Dr R. Paul Butler and Dr C. McCarthy
Tel: +1 202 478 8866
Email: paul@dtm.ciw.edu
/ chris@dtm.ciw.edu
Dr Geoff Marcy and Dr Debra Fischer
University of California, Berkeley
Tel: +1 510 642 1952 / 643 8973
Email: gmarcy@etoile.berkeley.edu
/ fischer@astro.berkeley.edu
Josh Chamot
Media Officer, National Science Foundation
Tel +1 703 292 7730
email: jchamot@nsf.gov
Embargoed until Thursday July 3rd 2003, 1300 GMT
Astronomers find 'home from home' -- 90 light years away!
Astronomers looking for planetary systems that resemble our own
solar system
have found the most similar formation so far. British
astronomers, working with
Australian and American colleagues, have discovered a planet like
Jupiter in
orbit round a nearby star that is very like our own Sun. Among
the hundred found
so far, this system is the one most similar to our Solar System.
The planet's
orbit is like that of Jupiter in our own Solar System, especially
as it is
nearly circular and there are no bigger planets closer in to its
star.
"This planet is going round in a nearly circular orbit
three-fifths the size of
our own Jupiter. This is the closest we have yet got to a real
Solar System-like
planet, and advances our search for systems that are even more
like our own,"
said UK team leader Hugh Jones of Liverpool John Moores
University.
The planet was discovered using the 3.9-metre Anglo-Australian
Telescope [AAT]
in New South Wales, Australia. The discovery, which is part of a
large search
for solar systems that resemble our own, will be announced today
(Thursday, July
3rd 2003) by Hugh Jones (Liverpool John Moores University) at a
conference on
"Extrasolar Planets: Today and Tomorrow" in Paris,
France.
"It is the exquisite precision of our measurements that lets
us search for these
Jupiters -- they are harder to find than the more exotic planets
found so far.
Perhaps most stars will be shown to have planets like our own
Solar System",
said Dr Alan Penny, from the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory.
The new planet, which has a mass about twice that of Jupiter,
circles its star
(HD70642) about every six years. HD70642 can be found in the
constellation
Puppis and is about 90 light years away from Earth. The planet is
3.3 times
further from its star as the Earth is from the Sun (about halfway
between Mars
and Jupiter if it were in our own system).
The long-term goal of this programme is the detection of true
analogues to the
Solar System: planetary systems with giant planets in long
circular orbits and
small rocky planets on shorter circular orbits. This discovery of
a Jupiter-like
gas giant planet around a nearby star is a step toward this goal.
The discovery
of other such planets and planetary satellites within the next
decade will help
astronomers assess the Solar System's place in the galaxy and
whether planetary
systems like our own are common or rare.
Prior to the discovery of extrasolar planets, planetary systems
were generally
predicted to be similar to the Solar System -- giant planets
orbiting beyond 4
Earth-Sun distances in circular orbits, and terrestrial mass
planets in inner
orbits. The danger of using theoretical ideas to extrapolate from
just one
example -- our own Solar System -- has been shown by the
extrasolar planetary
systems now known to exist which have very different properties.
Planetary
systems are much more diverse than ever imagined.
However these new planets have only been found around one-tenth
of stars where
they were looked for. It is possible that the harder-to-find very
Solar
System-like planets do exist around most stars.
The vast majority of the presently known extrasolar planets lie
in elliptical
orbits, which would preclude the existence of habitable
terrestrial planets.
Previously, the only gas giant found to orbit beyond 3 Earth-Sun
distances in a
near circular orbit was the outer planet of the 47 Ursa Majoris
system -- a
system which also includes an inner gas giant at 2 Earth-Sun
distances (unlike
the Solar System). This discovery of a 3.3 Earth-Sun distance
planet in a near
circular orbit around a Sun-like star bears the closest likeness
to our Solar
System found to date and demonstrates our searches are precise
enough to find
Jupiter-like planets in Jupiter-like orbit.
To find evidence of planets, the astronomers use a high-precision
technique
developed by Paul Butler of the Carnegie Institute of Washington
and Geoff Marcy
of the University of California at Berkeley to measure how much a
star "wobbles"
in space as it is affected by a planet's gravity. As an unseen
planet orbits a
distant star, the gravitational pull causes the star to move back
and forth in
space. That wobble can be detected by the 'Doppler shifting' it
causes in the
star's light. This discovery demonstrates that the long term
precision of the
team's technique is 3 metres per second (7mph) making the
Anglo-Australian
Planet Search at least as precise as any of the many planet
search projects
underway.
The Particle Physics and Astronomy Research Council (PPARC) is
the UK's
strategic science investment agency. It funds research, education
and public
understanding in four broad areas of science -- particle physics,
astronomy,
cosmology and space science.
PPARC is government funded and provides research grants and
studentships to
scientists in British universities, gives researchers access to
world-class
facilities and funds the UK membership of international bodies
such as the
European Laboratory for Particle Physics, CERN, the European
Southern
Observatory and the European Space Agency. It also contributes
money for the UK
telescopes overseas on La Palma, Hawaii, Australia and in Chile,
the UK
Astronomy Technology Centre at the Royal Observatory, Edinburgh
and the
MERLIN/VLBI National Facility.
PPARC's Public Understanding of Science and Technology Awards
Scheme provides
funding to both small local projects and national initiatives
aimed at improving
public understanding of its areas of science.
Notes for Editors:
The team is supported by the UK Particle Physics and Astronomy
Research Council,
the Australian government and the US National Science Foundation.
Dr Hugh Jones will be presenting details of the new planet on 3
July at the
"Extrasolar Planets: Today and Tomorrow" conference in
Paris. The conference
will be web-streamed live from www.canalu.fr
. The paper describing the new
planet has been accepted for publication by the Astrophysical
Journal Letters.
Images:
Images are available to download from
http://www.pparc.ac.uk/Nw/Artcl/images_to_accompany_press_releas.asp
A) The image shows an impression by David A. Hardy (c PPARC) of
the possible
scene from a moon orbiting the extra-solar planet in orbit around
the star
HD70642. The planet has a mass about twice that of Jupiter and
orbits the star
in around six years, with a nearly circular orbit at more than
three times the
Earth-Sun distance. The star HD70642 is a 7th magnitude star in
the southern
constellation Puppis, and has properties very similar to that of
our Sun. The
similarity of the appearance of the extra- solar planet to that
of Jupiter
arises because it has a similar mass. The possible existence of
the moons been
inferred from our knowledge of the planets in our own Solar
System and from
theories of planetary formation, they have not actually been
detected.
Photo credit: David A. Hardy, astroart.org
Copyright (c) Particle Physics and Astronomy Research Council
B. Animation of a trip from the Earth to the new HD 70642 planet.
Notes on the animation:
1) The artist's impression of the planet and its hypothetical
moons is a
different one from the David Hardy image at A;
2) the background Milky Way changes little during the trip
because the star is
very close to the Earth, compared to the thousands of light years
to the center
of our Galaxy;
3) The Southern Cross is shown at the start because this southern
star (we are
observing from Australia) is not far from the Southern Cross.
C. The 'orbit' diagram shows the size and shape of the star
HD70642 orbit
compared with the orbits of planets in our own Solar System.
D. Illustration of the Doppler Wobble Technique.
E. An image of the Anglo Australian Telescope at Siding Springs
in Australia can
be found at http://www.aao.gov.au/htdocs/images/captions/aat001.html
or a
picture of the dome at sunset
http://astron.berkeley.edu/~paul/photos/siding_spring_sunset.jpg
. The 3.9-m
Anglo-Australian telescope is the large telescope in the
background.
Links:
* The Anglo-Australian Planet Search Home Page
http://www.aao.gov.au/local/www/cgt/planet/aat.html
* Exoplanets Home Page
http://exoplanets.org/
* The Extra-solar Planets Encyclopaedia
http://www.obspm.fr/encycl/encycl.html
================
(5) HAVE MIRROR MICROMETEORITES BEEN DETECTED? (NOT THAT I AM
AWARE OF)
High Energy Physics
http://arxiv.org/abs/hep-ph/0306228
From: Robert Foot <foot@physics.unimelb.edu.au>
Date: Tue, 24 Jun 2003 03:00:43 GMT (9kb)
Authors: R. Foot, S. Mitra
Slow-moving (approximately 15 km/s) 'dark matter particles' have
allegedly been discovered in a recent experiment. We explore the
possibility that these slow moving dark matter particles are
small mirror matter dust particles originating from our solar
system. Ways of further testing our hypothesis, including the
possibility of observing these dust particles in cryogenic
detectors such as NAUTILUS, are also discussed.
FULL PAPER at http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/hep-ph/pdf/0306/0306228.pdf
================OPINION==============
(6) WILL EAST COAST VANISH IN 2880? (I DON'T THINK SO)
Newsday, 6 July 2003
http://www.newsday.com/business/printedition/ny-bzcvz3358795jul06,0,2093934.story
Charles V. Zehren
Late at night, the stars shine bright as the waves crest and wash
ashore.
Yet, here I am in Montauk interrupting my summer reverie with
thoughts of doom and destruction on an apocalyptic scale. I guess
this is what happens when you spend too much time hanging out
with economists.
For eons, powerful storms and surf have taken their toll on this
lovely shoreline. Now, chunks of it are literally falling into
the sea. This has local property owners either fretting about the
value of their investment or cheering about the dwindling supply
of developable land.
But as hurricane season gets under way and insurance payments
come due, consider, if you will, the even more unnerving
financial - and respiratory - implications of a low- odds,
high-impact scenario recently forwarded by a pair of University
of California Santa Cruz scientists.
First, let's start with the asteroid.
Geological history shows us that over the last 65 million years,
the Earth has suffered the impacts of about 200
"bolides" of one kilometer or more in diameter. And now
comes news that there's a 1 in 300 chance that "1950
DA," a space rock large enough to sport the designation
"minor planet," will collide with our globe on March
16, 2880. This has prompted Steven Ward and Erik Asphaug to ask:
What would happen if splashdown occurred at some arbitrary spot
in the Atlantic several horizons east of here?
The pair revved up their computers, ground through equations and
came up with a model projecting a 40,000 mph impact at 35 degrees
North latitude, 70 degrees West longitude, or 372 miles out to
sea. This massive cannonball 7/10ths of a mile across would hit
with the explosive power of 5,600 megatons of TNT, blast away the
ocean, augur into the seafloor and leave a hole 11.8 miles wide
and about 3 1/2 miles deep.
Technically speaking, the scientists say, the ocean's "wave
components" would become "excited." But in
layman's terms, all of that displaced water would have to go
someplace. And a lot of that "someplace" would be the
East Coast of the United States, including Long Island and New
York City.
On a calm day, you wouldn't notice much at first. But about two
hours after impact, the surf would pick up, with a sudden rise in
the tide of about 3-5 feet followed by a retreat. Then, the cycle
would build with exponential force.
Over the next 90 minutes, tsunamis would shoal and thunder ashore
every two minutes, growing to 300 feet high and running inland at
least 2½ miles, before washing back, scouring away everything in
their path. Within four hours, virtually the entire Eastern
Seaboard from Cape Cod to Cape Hatteras would experience 200- to
400-foot rollers.
"The best way to think about it," Ward said, "is
as if some giant just tilted over the whole ocean up on one side
and all the water slid over to the other." Instead of the
tide rising and then falling 8 feet in 12 hours, it would rise
and fall 300 feet in two minutes. "Rockaway and
Montauk," he said, "would vanish."
I could imagine finding relative safety mid-Island atop Jaynes
Hill, which stands, conveniently, at 400½ feet above what we now
consider sea level. Roughly speaking, though, the Atlantic
coastline would reform at what used to be Sunrise Highway, with
wetlands running north toward the Long Island Expressway.
Lucky Plainview residents would finally be able to change their
their town name to "Waterview." Nautical maps would
show everything east of Flanders Bay as a mere sandbar. The wine
industry would convert to aquaculture. Dune Road residents would
be lobbying Congress to finance a particularly challenging
rebuilding project. And the Hamptons would be under water,
relegated to legend like some high-rent Atlantis, until a future
Robert Ballard discovered and surfaced a soggy but readable stack
of vintage Dan's Papers.
For the city, Ward projects that most everything south of
Morningside Heights would be "moderately sheltered,"
while as with most things bad, Queens and Brooklyn would bear the
brunt.
Keep in mind, though, that the National Weather Service's aptly
named SLOSH (Sea, Lake and Overland Surge from Hurricanes) unit
has predicted that a mere 30-foot storm surge from a hurricane
blasting in to New York Harbor would submerge JFK Airport, flood
the Brooklyn-Battery Tunnel and give the downtown subway system a
thorough flushing.
Ward's economic analysis of impact-driven tsunami waves predicts
that the "mean loss scenario" from asteroids one
quarter the size of 1950 DA would displace 1.4 million people,
with $140 billion in infrastructure destruction, a figure cited
by those calling on Washington to spend $150 million creating a
high-powered, asteroid tracking telescope. (By comparison, in
1992 Hurricane Andrew caused $15.5 billion in insured losses.)
Yet, the economic model assumes each affected person has ties to
$100,000 in infrastructure. And this is a region where $400,000
capes and $650,000 two bedroom co-ops are commonplace. Billions
would be lost from the disruption on Wall Street, assuming the
securities industry didn't relocate to Harrisburg ahead of Zero
Hour. And if you up the mean-sized impact scenario to 1950 DA
scale, as many as 14.1 million people could be displaced by
waves, prompting even greater financial devastation.
Of course, the scientists allow, the model is rife with
"uncertainty multipliers," taking into account
everything from population density to the point of impact to the
slim odds of anything like this ever happening. And in any case,
they assure us, astronomers will give us plenty of warning about
the really big bolides heading our way. "Rarity requires
perspective," they offer.
Still, Earthlings can expect "dozens" of close
encounters with 1950 DA in the centuries ahead. In the meantime,
"the really scary ones are those that could come in
unnoticed," Ward said flatly, adding that we'd
"maybe" get a half-an-hour to head for the hills.
"Humanity," as the scientists note in their paper,
"lives with a calculus of infinite devastation times
infinitesimal probability."
Words to live by as I head off to the beach.
Tide's rising. Surf's up.
Copyright © 2003, Newsday, Inc.
=============
(7) LONESOME HUNT BY ONE PALE BLUE DOT
The Guardian, 4 July 2003
http://www.guardian.co.uk/spacedocumentary/story/0,2763,991156,00.html
Duncan Steel
The following correction was printed in the Guardian's
Corrections and Clarifications column, Monday July 7 2003: In the
following report we said that Mars was always more distant from
the Earth than Venus. In fact it is not. What we meant to say was
that Venus at its closest comes closer to the earth than Mars
ever does (but at times Mars is closer than Venus).
-----------------
Are we alone? Very often that question is concerned directly with
whether or not there is life elsewhere in the universe.
But it can have another meaning, simpler perhaps: is the Earth
alone? That is, might our planet be the only one in the cosmos to
have the right conditions for the origin and evolution of complex
life?
This is the Goldilocks problem: what is required is a planet that
is not too small, nor too large, or else it will have either an
atmosphere that is too dense or none at all, like the moon. The
planet must be not too hot, nor too cold. And it needs a magnetic
field strong enough to shield out cosmic rays. And so on.
The constraints are surprisingly strict. Look at Venus, virtually
the Earth's twin in size and mass, and the closest planet to us
(Mars is always more distant).
The Venusian surface conditions far outstrip a hospital's
sterilising autoclave in terms of pressure (90 times that on
Earth) and temperature (500C). That's not to mention the clouds
of sulphuric acid swirling around.
Venus is just a bit closer to the sun than us. It absorbs less
solar energy than Earth, because of those highly reflective
clouds. But still it is too hot for life.
Are we alone then? Is there, in the words of Carl Sagan, the late
American astronomer, just one pale blue dot - a clement,
water-covered planet - here in the Milky Way? Or are there many
more of the same?
In many branches of science, theory and experiment can work hand
in hand. Theoreticians make predictions which can then be tested
by observations of the real world. But in asking whether the
Earth is alone we have little data to go on.
We have had only one planetary system to study - our own. If we
had a complete understanding of how the solar system formed, then
we could generalise and make predictions about how many stars are
accompanied by similar panoplies of planets. But we don't.
Similarly, if we knew how life began on Earth, then we could make
sensible evaluations of the chance of life having originated
elsewhere, but again we have no such knowledge. What we are left
with is feeling our way out into the galaxy, using our arrays of
telescopes and sophisticated detectors.
In 1995, the announcement was made of the first identification of
a planet orbiting another star, the evidence being a wobble in
the star's spectrum. Since then, dozens more like that have
joined the databanks.
What these planets have in common is a dissimilarity from the
solar system. Finding a Jupiter-sized planet orbiting close to
some star is great science. But it is disappointing from the
perspective of a search for life since it means there can be no
Earth-like planet close enough in to that star to maintain the
right conditions for water to flow freely - the sine qua non of
all terrestrial life.
Finding a Jupiter-like planet a good distance from a star,
mimicking our solar system, with every hope of big, rocky bodies
closer in - virtually a Venus, maybe a Mars, expectantly an Earth
- now that's big news for those who hope we are not alone.
· Duncan Steel, a space scientist at the University of Salford,
works with Nasa colleagues researching life's origins on Earth.
Copyright 2003, The Guardian
========LETTERS=============
(8) RISK OF FATALITIES
Michael Paine <mpaine@tpg.com.au>
Dear Benny
I would like to clarify my statement that *the annual risk of an
asteroid impact severely affecting Australia (by either direct
impact, tsunami or global disaster) is about 1 in 500,000.*
(CCNet 23 Jun 03)
This looked at the chance of an impact event that causes at least
100,000 AUSTRALIAN fatalities - this is 5% of the Australian
population so maybe the term *severe* was not strong enough. My
estimate is that the chances of a 10,000 fatality event are
roughly 1 in 50,000. I think that Australians would be deeply
traumatised by such an event, which exceeds by far any natural
disaster since European settlement.
Also I have disregarded the global trauma that would result from
an impact causing, say, 1 million fatalities somewhere on earth.
My simulation (see http://www1.tpgi.com.au/users/tps-seti/sta1046.htm
) produced annual probability of about 1 in 6000 for such an
event, although recent downwards revisions to the number of
*small* NEOs would reduce this risk.
Finally, I would like to comment briefly on the National
Geographic article. I have stated this before, but the most
likely scenario if a NEO is discovered to be on a collision
course with the Earth is that it will be small enough to NOT
cause a severe global catastrophe. The best mitigation in these
circumstances would be to evacuate the impact region and prepare
for a *year without summer*. By all means, try to deflect it with
fancy technology - but the lack of such technology should not be
given as a reason for not putting resources into Spaceguard.
regards
Michael Paine
===============
(9) EMPEROR CONSTANTINE'S MILVIAN BRIDGE VISION, CONVERSION
Hermann Burchard <burchar@math.okstate.edu>
Dear Benny,
perhaps slightly more than mere "unbridled speculation"
[so David J. Ross, CCNet, 23 June 2003] can be offered in support
of the idea of a linkage between the multiple impact craters in
the Sirente and Velino ranges of the Abruzzi that were recently
discovered by Swedish geologist Jens Ormo [CCNet, 19 June 2003,
and earlier] on one hand with the celestial vision of Emperor
Constantine (288-337) at the Milvian Bridge in 312 on the other.
What else, other than a comet, would fit the description of the
sight in the sky, that the Emperor saw and at later times kept
confirming? Also, it seems his terrified opponents may give
a hint that they understood the meteoric phenomenon as a bad
omen, while Constantine's forces were able to accept it as a good
sign based on how their commander was reading it -- after a night
of prayer.
Has not an unusually high rate of meteors and cometary activity
been suggested for the 4th through 6th centuries, backed by a
multitude of evidence? Primarily, Taurid meteor stream
activity near Earth's orbit had increased in those days (as well
as at other times). I recall items on CCNet and elsewhere,
offering evidence from astronomy, archeology, as well as history,
including contemporary observations of meteors, atmospheric
conditions, climate, as well as modern data from tree rings, etc
giving proof both direct and indirect. The records of
history are full of unexplained earth quake swarms, tsunami,
incessant rains, snow in August -- Santa Maria Maggiore in Rome
is known as our Lady of the Snows for just such a reason, --
failed crops, whole nations starving, and going South as is known
to have occurred in the Bronze ages, etc, etc, all plausibly
caused by comet activity. Severe societal and environmental
effects with a probable or provable causal connection to the
Taurid stream are evident from the historical records.
Regarding Constantine's conversion to Christianity, the apparent
vision of a comet at the Milvian Bridge was far from the main
influence: This surely must have been his mother, Saint
Helena (448-328): "He became disposed to accept Christianity
by his mother."
http://www.stjohndc.org/Saints/9506a.htm
Saint Helena, wife of one Emperor, Constantius, and mother of
another, Constantine, is best known for her archeological
expedition to Jerusalem, where in 327, almost 80 years old, she
dug on Mount Calvary, searching for the TRUE CROSS (and finding
it, according to legend). However at a younger age, she
conducted Christian meetings or services in her palace. There,
protection could be given at a time when elsewhere persecutions
were still rampant. This occurred at her residence at
Treves, = Augusta Treverorum in Roman times, = Trier, Germany (on
the French border), where Constantine would have lived with her
as a young boy, as, in the time of Diocletian, whose three
co-emperors each had their own capital cities, Trier was the
capital of Constantius. If today you travel to Trier, you
can visit the "Double Church", actually two churches
but immediately adjacent to each other, because both at one time
were parts of the palatial complex. This architectural
history of the Double Church can be proved from archeological
excavations which have revealed in detail the original lay-out of
the imperial palace in its various stages. Even the main
supporting columns of the two churches are still in the exact
positions where the palatial piers stood. Part of the Roman
masonry is still extant, despite heavy damage in WWII. She
converted her palace into churches many years prior to her son
making Christianity official. Perhaps her own conversion was the
result of Constantius being forced to divorce her (293).
"At her death, Constantine paid his mother the highest
honors. Her body was sent to Rome and placed in the tomb of the
emperors. He made her native village a monument to her memory by
raising it to the rank of a city, giving it the name
Helenopolis."
http://herteen.com/herstory/helena.shtml
Even before Caesar conquered Gaul, Trier was important as chief
city of the Celtic tribe of the Treveri. In Roman times
Trier became a splendid metropolis, although Saint Jerome
(347-420), who studied in Trier as a young man, thought Trier was
rather a simple place compared to Rome. A brilliant
linguist and highly productive scholar, he learned the Celtic
dialect of the Treveri while in Trier and, in Jerusalem much
later, Hebrew. He was the first to translate the Hebrew Bible
into Latin. When traveling on foot to Jerusalem, he passed
through Galatia (near Ankara). He found that the Galatians spoke
the exact same Celtic dialect as the Treveri (a fact hotly
disputed by Cambridge University archeologist Lord Colin Renfrew
of Kaimsthorn).
The profound effect on Constantine of his mother's piety in
combination with the vision at the Milvian Bridge can be seen
from the Council of Nicea (325) which apparently he oversaw in
person, taking an active hand in editing the Nicean Creed.
Essentially he created the Roman Catholic Church and its
priesthood as we know it today out of the early Christian
communities in Rome using outward forms of Roman pagan religious
traditions. In the pre-Constantinian days of the persecuted
church in the catacombs there were no altars, no priests, and no
sacrifice -- the Eucharist was just a part of the Agape, a
celebration of the memory of the death of Jesus. Instead of
an altar, a saint's sarcophagus had to do for a serving table of
the Agape feast. Otherwise, the liturgy was quite similar.
Cheers,
Hermann Burchard
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