PLEASE NOTE:
*
CCNet 64/2003 - LINEAR & JPL SWIFTLY TERMINATE FALSE
ASTEROID ALARM
3 September 2003
-------------------------------------------------------------------
After sounding the alarm about a kilometer-wide asteroid,
astronomers
said Tuesday that further data eliminated the possibility of a
catastrophic collision in 2014. This week's alert followed the
up-and-down course that is typical for observations of near-Earth
objects.
--Alan Boyle, MSNBC, 2 September 2003
"EARTH IS DOOMED"
--Daily Record, 3 September 2003
(1) 2014 ALARM ELIMINATED
(2) ASTEROID STRIKE RULED OUT FOR 2014
(3) AND FINALLY: TODAY'S GLOBAL HEADLINES: "EARTH IS
DOOMED"
===============
(1) 2014 ALARM ELIMINATED
Ron Baalke <baalke@zagami.jpl.nasa.gov>
LINEAR obtained some new observations of the asteroid today,
which
extends the data arc from 6.7 days to 9 days. We've just computed
a
new orbit solution, and 2003 QQ47 has dropped to Torino 0.
Also, the
number of potential impacts have been reduced from 31 to 18, and
the
2014 potential impact has been eliminated.
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk
Ron Baalke
===========
(2) ASTEROID STRIKE RULED OUT FOR 2014
After alert, further observations eliminate risk of collision
MSNBC, 2 September 2003
http://www.msnbc.com/news/960340.asp?0cv=TB10
By Alan Boyle
MSNBC
Sept. 2 - After sounding the alarm about a kilometer-wide
asteroid,
astronomers said Tuesday that further data eliminated the
possibility of
a catastrophic collision in 2014. This week's alert followed the
up-and-down course that is typical for observations of near-Earth
objects.
ASTEROID 2003 QQ47 was first observed on Aug. 24, and based on
limited
data, experts at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory estimated as of
early
Tuesday that there was a tiny chance - 1 in 909,000 - that the
space
rock would smash into Earth on March 21, 2014.
Observations gathered on Monday night, however, allowed
astronomers to
plot the asteroid's orbital course more precisely. By Tuesday
evening,
the risk for 2014 was eliminated. JPL said there was still a
1-in-2.2
million chance that an impact could occur sometime in the next
century,
but that is far below the "background risk" of a
catastrophic collision
in any given year.
"We have many asteroids that have residual risks," Paul
Chodas, a
research scientist at JPL who specializes in calculating the
orbits of
near-Earth objects. "This particular one was of interest
because it is
fairly large, 1.3 kilometers [0.8 mile], and the predicted impact
was
only 10 years away. Combining those two factors, we raised it to
some
level of concern."
The rock was first observed by the Lincoln Near Earth Asteroid
Research
Program, also known as LINEAR.
At one time, the 2014 encounter was given a rare rating of 1 on
the
Torino Scale of asteroid and comet threats. But based on the
additional
observations, the Torino rating was reduced to zero by JPL as
well as
the NEODyS asteroid-monitoring group in Italy.
"We expect the impact possibilities to go to zero,"
Chodas said. "That
is the usual scenario."
If a rock as big as 2003 QQ47 ever were to hit Earth, it could
have the
effect of millions of Hiroshima-scale atom bombs. Such impacts
are
thought to have contributed to mass extinctions, including the
demise of
the dinosaurs 65 million years ago.
Asteroids are chunks of rock left over from the formation of the
solar
system 4.5 billion years ago. Most are kept at a safe distance
from the
Earth in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. But some
asteroids
trace an orbit that crosses Earth's own.
In the past several years, programs such as LINEAR have upgraded
scientists' asteroid-detecting capabilities to the point that
asteroid
alerts are not all that unusual anymore. Astronomers currently
are
tracking more than 600 near-Earth asteroids wider than a
kilometer - and
there are likely hundreds more yet to be found. There are thought
to be
many more smaller near-Earth objects that could create localized
damage
in the event of a collision.
JPL's Chodas emphasized that the process of tracking near-Earth
objects
and refining their orbits can take days, weeks or months.
"We never know orbits very accurately," he told
MSNBC.com. "This
asteroid has been seen only for nine days, and here we're trying
to
predict its position 10 years in the future. So there are many
uncertainties."
Copyright 2003, MSNBC
================
(3) AND FINALLY: TODAY'S HEADLINES: "EARTH IS DOOMED"
"EARTH IS DOOMED"
Daily Record, 3 September 2003
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/content_objectid=13362495_method=full_siteid=89488_headline=-%2DEARTH%2DIS%2DDOOMED%2D-name_page.html
SCIENTISTS have warned that a newly-discovered asteroid is on
collision
course with the Earth.
If it keeps its current path the rock, which is two-thirds of a
mile
wide and has been named 2003 QQ47, will land on March 21, 2014.
But the risk of a collision actually happening are just
909,000/1.
Bookmakers William Hill say they are happy to take bets that the
2600
million tonne asteroid will eventually hit the earth, wiping out
all
life.
-----------
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*
CCNet 65/2003 - 3 September 2003
--------------------------------
Given how swiftly 2003 QQ47 has been downgraded from a Torino 1,
some
may question whether the NEO Information Centre should have
posted the
information about 2003 QQ47 on the website in the first place.
However
we hope by keeping the public and media informed of this kind of
issue,
as it is unfolding rather than after the fact, we can promote
understanding of the process of asteroid detection, tracking and
risk
assessment.
--NEOIC, 3 September 2003
As far as astronomers are concerned, the information about
"virtual
impactors" should be peer reviewed and then posted on
scientific
websites so that those who can confirm the calculations and those
observers who can do something about the object can monitor it
for as
long as possible. This would be much more appropriate than
issuing a
public false alarm. Whenever an impact prediction is available
and the
object is still observable, no public announcements are necessary
because additional data will, in almost all cases, eliminate the
initial
impact risk.
--Benny Peiser, Astronomy Now, October 2000
(1) CRYING WOLF BECOMING OFFICIAL POLICY? NEOIC INTRODUCE NEW
PROCEDURES
ON IMPACT RISK ALARMS
(2) "GOODBYE, CRUEL WORLD"
(3) ASTEROID THREAT TO FUTURE OF EARTH
(4) MAKE A NOTE: 21 MARCH 2014 MIGHT JUST BE ASTEROID D-DAY
(5) HO-HUM, YET ANOTHER ASTEROID THREATENS EARTH WITH CATASTROPHE
(6) THE ODDS ON ARMAGEDDON SHORTEN TO 909,000-To-1
(7) ASTEROIDS DO NOT "HAVE RISKS"
(8) AND FINALLY: PAGE 3 GIRL'S HEAVENLY BODY COMMENT
=================
(1) CRYING WOLF BECOMES OFFICIAL POLICY: NEOIC INTRODUCE NEW
PROCEDURES
ON IMPACT RISK ALARMS
NEO Information Centre, 3 September 2003
http://www.nearearthobjects.co.uk/news_display.cfm?code=news_intro&itemID=197
The new data have enabled astronomers to refine the orbit of
asteroid
2003 QQ47, and so rule out 13 of the 31 potential impacts
originally
listed on the JPL Current Impact Risk table. Among those 'virtual
orbits' to be ruled out was the one for 21 March 2014, which gave
the
asteroid its Torino 1 rating.
The 18 remaining potential impacts are all rated at zero on the
Torino
scale and are therefore classed as 'events with no likely
consequences'.
Once again, the only remaining Torino 1 rated asteroid on the JPL
Current Impact Risk table is asteroid 1997 XR2, with 2 potential
impacts
in June 2101. However, as with 2003 QQ47, the probability of 1997
XR2
impacting Earth is highly unlikely. Estimates suggest this
smaller
asteroid would impart just one thousandth of the energy that 2003
QQ47
was capable of delivering.
Given how swiftly 2003 QQ47 has been downgraded from a Torino 1,
some
may question whether the NEO Information Centre should have
posted the
information about 2003 QQ47 on the website in the first place.
However
we hope by keeping the public and media informed of this kind of
issue,
as it is unfolding rather than after the fact, we can promote
understanding of the process of asteroid detection, tracking and
risk
assessment.
Kevin Yates, project manager for the NEO Information Centre said,
"Openly sharing this sort of information, in a none
sensationalist way,
should help to dispel the popular myth that governments and
astronomers
would keep the discovery of a dangerous asteroid secret. I hope
the
coverage of this story will give the general public more of a
feel for
how the assessment of risk evolves as more observations are
made."
The NEO Information Centre would like to thank the media for
what, on
the whole, has been responsible coverage of this story. Almost
all of
the press and broadcast coverage has included reference to our
original
statements that the probability of impact was very low at just 1
in
909,000, and that the Torino rating was likely to drop following
further
observations.
© NEO Information Centre
MODERATOR'S NOTE: 2003 QQ47 had already been downgraded from a
Torino 1
to a Torino 0 by NEODyS
one day *before* the IAUIC started an unwarrantable media
campaign (see
the meticulous
reporting on AC/C, http://www.hohmanntransfer.com/news.htm).
It would
appear that all the
lessons learnt from five years of our PR blunders, media gaffes
and
errors of judgement have been forgotten. I'm afraid that any
attempt to
justify an ill-timed and unnecessary media campaign doesn't bode
well
for the NEO community's efforts to avoid false asteroid alarms
that only
risk undermining our integrity. Benny Peiser
=============
(2) "GOODBYE, CRUEL WORLD"
The Guardian, 3 September 2003
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,3604,1034397,00.html
March 2014 brings small risk of huge disaster
Tim Radford, science editor
Wednesday September 3, 2003
The Guardian
The world can breathe again. Probably. Asteroid 2003 QQ47, a lump
of
rock the size of Ben Nevis, could hit Earth at a speed of about
13 miles
a second on March 21 2014, to cause the kind of destruction
expected in
thermonuclear war, experts warned yesterday.
But they gave the 2,600m tonne monster a danger rating of just
one on
the Torino scale. That means its chances of actually slamming
into Earth
are 909,000 to 1 against.
The Torino scale goes up to 10, at which point collision is a
certainty.
That the object rates as a danger at all is because earthlings
know so
little about their nearer neighbours. At present astronomers have
counted 523 potentially hazardous objects - bits of rubble left
over
from the building of the solar system 4.5bn years ago - that may
be on
collision course with Earth. Asteroid 2003 QQ47, three-quarters
of a
mile in diameter, first spotted on August 24 and observed so far
only 51
times, could be another.
"The near-Earth object will be observable from Earth for the
next two
months, and astronomers will continue to track it over this
period,"
said Alan Fitzsimmons, of Queen's University, Belfast.
Kevin Yates, manager of the UK near-Earth object information
centre,
based at the National Space Centre in Leicester, said: "As
additional
observations are made, and uncertainties decrease, asteroid 2003
QQ47 is
likely to drop down the Torino scale."
Earth's nearest neighbour, the moon, is pockmarked by aeons of
cosmic
collisions. There have been many impacts on Earth during
geological
history, but for the most part the dents have been smeared away
by wind,
rain and plant growth.
The last epic impact was probably 65m years ago, at the close of
the
Cretaceous period, when an asteroid or comet may have wiped out
the
dinosaurs and most other life on Earth. But there have been many
smaller
impacts, including the equivalent of a powerful atomic bomb over
the
Tungus region of Siberia in 1908.
The cosmos, astronomers warn, remains a potentially dangerous
place.
Amateur astronomers at a BBC "star party" 10 days ago,
to celebrate
national astronomy week, may have identified 20 more potential
killers.
The planet is showered by small objects every day - many of them
burn up
harmlessly as shooting stars - but larger lumps of rock hit the
ground
as meteorites.
The bigger fragments have the potential to wipe out whole cities.
One of
them sped harmlessly past Earth on August 16, missing it by about
2.4m
miles. Others have come to within almost the distance of the
moon.
Goodbye, cruel world
Astronomers and Earth scientists have proposed a number of
potential
endpoints for humanity
· The runaway greenhouse effect. Could Earth end up like Venus,
with
ground temperatures at the melting point of lead?
· Snowball Earth, or at least the return of the ice age, with
vast
glaciers ploughing as far south as Middlesex. The last ice age
ended
only 10,000 years ago
· The swelling of the sun. In about 5bn years, the sun will
expand to
red giant stage, incinerating all the rocky inner planets, and
any life
on them
· Cosmic collapse: a random quantum fluctuation in space could
destroy
mass and trigger a bubble of destruction that would advance at
the speed
of light
Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2003
==========
(3) ASTEROID THREAT TO FUTURE OF EARTH
The Scotsman, 3 September 2003
http://www.news.scotsman.com/scitech.cfm?id=969242003
ALASTAIR DALTON SCIENCE CORRESPONDENT
A NEW asteroid threat has been identified by astronomers, in the
shape
of a giant rock, three-quarters of a mile wide, that could hit
the Earth
with the impact of eight million atomic bombs on 21 March, 2014.
Experts said they would not have a good idea about whether the
Earth was
doomed for another week, and would not be certain about its
future
prospects for a month.
The orbit calculations of the "near Earth object" (NEO)
are currently
based on just 51 observations over a week.
The newly-discovered asteroid, known as 2003 QQ47, has a mass of
around
2,600 million tons and was first spotted by astronomers in the
United
States ten days ago. It is travelling at around 72,000 miles an
hour, or
20 miles a second.
The asteroid has been given a hazard rating of one on the Torino
scale,
defining it as "an event meriting careful monitoring".
The Torino scale, named after the city of Turin, where it was
devised,
is the cosmic collisions version of the Richter scale, which
measures
earthquakes.
The scale ranges from zero, meaning "no likely
consequences", and ten,
where the Earth's destruction is certain.
By contrast, a half-mile wide asteroid with a one in 300 chance
of
hitting the Earth in 2880 was given a rating of two last year.
The only other asteroid with a Torino rating of more than zero is
1997
XR2, with a rating of one, which could hit the Earth in 2101.
Kevin Yates, the project manager for Britain's NEO information
centre in
Leicester, said: "As additional observations are made over
the coming
months, and the uncertainties decrease, asteroid 2003 QQ47 is
likely to
drop down the Torino scale.
"The NEO information centre will continue to monitor the
latest results
of observations and publish regular updates on our website."
Dr John Davies, an astronomer at the Royal Observatory of
Edinburgh and
a member of the centre's expert panel, compared the asteroid's
target
area to a dartboard, with the Earth as the bull's-eye.
He added that all that was known so far was that the asteroid
would hit
somewhere on the dartboard. By next week, the target area would
be
reduced to the size of a playing card on the board, but it would
not be
known for a month if the card was over the bull's-eye.
Dr Alan Fitzsimmons, of Queen's University, Belfast, another
member of
the expert panel, said: "The NEO will be observable from
Earth for the
next two months and astronomers will continue to track it over
this
period."
Dr Fitzsimmons, a reader in observational astrophysics, added:
"There is
some uncertainty about where the asteroid is going. In all
probability,
within the next month, we will know its future orbit with an
accuracy
which will mean we will be able to rule out any impact.
Previously this
year we have had several asteroids which have had much higher
probabilities of colliding with the Earth in the next 100 years,
and
they have almost all been ruled out."
The asteroid was first observed on 24 August by the Lincoln near
Earth
asteroid research programme (LINEAR), based in Socorro, New
Mexico.
Asteroids such as 2003 QQ47 are chunks of rock left over from the
formation of the solar system, 4.5 billion years ago. Most are
kept at a
safe distance from Earth in the asteroid belt between the orbits
of Mars
and Jupiter.
However, the gravitational influence of giant planets such as
Jupiter
can nudge the asteroids out of these safe orbits and send them
towards
the vicinity of the Earth.
Asteroid 2003 QQ47 is around one tenth of the size of the meteor
believed to have wiped out dinosaurs on Earth 65 million years
ago.
However, it would still have the force of 350,000 mega tonnes -
or some
right million times more powerful than the bomb dropped on
Hiroshima in
1945.
The Royal Observatory of Edinburgh, which is an off-shoot of the
NEO
information centre, is hoping to stage a new exhibition about
asteroids
in Scotland following the closure of its visitor centre to the
general
public on Sunday.
Meanwhile, William Hill, the bookmakers, yesterday published a
list of
events which it reckoned had the same 909,000/1 odds of happening
before
14 March, 2014, as those of the asteroid hitting the Earth.
It said they included David Beckham becoming England manager and
winning
the World Cup - with his son, Brooklyn, scoring the winning goal
and his
other son, Romeo, coming on as a substitute.
Others in the list included the temperature hitting 100F in
Britain on
Christmas Day, and Tony Blair joining the Conservatives and
becoming the
first prime minister of two different parties.
Copyright 2003, The Scotsman
========
(4) MAKE A NOTE: 21 MARCH 2014 MIGHT JUST BE ASTEROID D-DAY
The Independent, 3 September 2003
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/science_medical/story.jsp?story=439698
By Charles Arthur, Technology Editor
The Earth is imperilled by an asteroid again, which will strike
the
planet on 21 March 2014 if our luck turns out to be truly bad,
astronomers say.
Bookies are making hay on the announcement yesterday that
"2003 QQ47",
an asteroid 3,900 feet (1.2km) wide and weighing 2,600 million
tons, is
calculated to have a one in 909,000 chance of hitting us.
The bookmaker William Hill said it was happy to take bets on a
collision, likely to have a force eight million times more
powerful than
the Hiroshima atom bomb, because it would not be around to pay
out if
punters were right. The threat from the newly discovered asteroid
is
real, but seems to be diminishing as astronomers glean more
information
on its orbit. So far, only 51 observations have been made over
seven
days.
The giant rock was spotted on 24 August by Lincoln Near Earth
Asteroid
Research Program (Linear), in Socorro, New Mexico. That was
reported to
the Minor Planet Centre in Massachusetts, a centre for all
discoveries
of asteroids and comets. The asteroid has been given a
classification,
known as a "Torino hazard rating" of one, defining it
as "an event
meriting careful monitoring", where the chance of impact is
less than
one in 100, but the consequences could be global.
The scale runs from 0 to 10, 10 being the worst. Asteroids are
remnants
from the formation of the solar system six billion years ago. The
Earth
has been hit by them through history, most famously 65 million
years
ago, the impact believed to have wiped out dinosaurs.
Kevin Yates, project manager for the UK Near Earth Objects
Information
Centre, said: "As additional observations are made, and the
uncertainties decrease, asteroid 2003 QQ47 is likely to drop down
the
Torino scale."
Dr Alan Fitzsimmons of Queen's University, Belfast, an adviser to
the UK
NEO centre, said the growing number of such
"Earth-crossing" asteroids
being detected reflected increased efforts to spot them.
"The technology has changed," he said. "We now
have very sensitive
cameras that can spot dimmer objects, and computers and software
that
can automatically look at images and identify moving objects. In
the
past five years we've made a huge leap."
Scientists and governments had not agreed a plan of action if an
asteroid was found to be on an Earth-crossing orbit.
"Although Hollywood
films such as Deep Impact and Armageddon raised people's
awareness of
the real risk asteroids pose, they also gave it an almost science
fiction factor," he said.
"Maybe if [we find an asteroid] with an impact trajectory,
governments
will look at schemes for averting them. The important thing is to
get
plenty of warning."
© 2003 Independent Digital (UK) Ltd
==============
(5) HO-HUM, YET ANOTHER ASTEROID THREATENS EARTH WITH CATASTROPHE
The Daily Telegraph, 3 September 2003
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2003/09/03/waster03.xml&sSheet=/portal/2003/09/03/ixportal.html
By David Derbyshire, Science Correspondent
An asteroid big enough to wipe out most of Europe is hurtling
towards
the Earth, astronomers warned last night.
The giant space rock, scheduled to sweep close to the Earth on
March 21
2014, is large and fast enough to devastate a continent should a
collision occur.
However, the chances of an impact are minuscule. Yesterday they
were
estimated at one in 909,000 - more likely than winning the
National
Lottery jackpot, but less likely than drowning in the bath. The
probability is almost certain to fall to zero over the next few
weeks as
a more accurate projection of the orbit of asteroid 2003 QQ47
emerges.
It is the latest in a spate of "doomsday rocks"
discovered in near Earth
orbit in recent years. All of its predecessors turned out to be
false
alarms.
Researchers in Lincoln, New Mexico, detected the asteroid last
week. It
is two thirds of a mile wide and has a mass of about 2.6 billion
tons.
Calculations based on 51 observations over the past seven days
suggest
that there is a small chance it could smash into the Earth at 21
miles
per second.
The Government funded Near Earth Object Information Centre, which
issued
the warning, said a collision could have the effect of 20 million
Hiroshima atomic bombs. If it hit land 2003 QQ47 could devastate
several
countries and if it splashed into the sea it could trigger
catastrophic
tidal waves.
The asteroid has been given a classification - known as a
"Torino hazard
rating" of one - defining it as "an event meriting
careful monitoring".
On the Torino scale, zero is for objects with no chance of
collision,
while 10 is for certain catastrophic impacts.
Despite the low risk, the information centre, which was set up
two years
ago to publicise potential threats from asteroids and comets,
said its
warning was sensible and denied seeking publicity.
Kevin Yates, the centre's project manager, said its size, speed
and the
closeness of the potential collision justified informing the
public.
"There is only a slim chance of collision, but because of
these three
factors it is justifiable to let people know about it," he
said.
Astronomers expect to find one or two asteroids a year that pose
a
similar threat, he added. "As additional observations are
made over the
coming months, and the uncertainties decrease, asteroid 2003 QQ47
is
likely to drop down the Torino scale. We will publish regular
updates on
our website."
In July 2002, astronomers announced that an asteroid was heading
for a
collision with Earth in February 2019. The chances of a collision
were
estimated at one in 9,000. But over the following few days, as
more
accurate measurements were made, the risk fell to one in 60,000,
then to
zero.
In April 2002, another asteroid was discovered with a one in 300
chance
of hitting the Earth in 2880. Once again, the risk vanished over
the
following weeks as more observations were made.
Although most asteroids orbit the Sun in a belt between Mars and
Jupiter, they can be nudged into the Earth's neighbourhood by the
gravitational influence of larger planets.
Dr Alan Fitzsimmons, of Queen's University, Belfast, who advises
the
information centre, said there was no cause for concern. "In
all
probability, within the next month we will know its future orbit
with an
accuracy which will mean we will be able to rule out any
impact," he
said.
"This year, we have had several asteroids which have had
much higher
probabilities of colliding in the next 100 years and they have
almost
all been ruled out."
© Copyright of Telegraph Group Limited 2003. Terms &
Conditions of
reading.
==============
(6) THE ODDS ON ARMAGEDDON SHORTEN TO 909,000-To-1
The Times, 3 September 2003
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-801927,00.html
By Mark Henderson, Science Correspondent
AN ASTEROID large enough to wipe out a continent could collide
with the
Earth in 11 years, astronomers said yesterday.
There is no reason, however, to prepare for Armageddon just yet.
The
chances of an impact are remote, at just one in 909,000, and the
odds of
oblivion will lengthen still further as more details of the
object's
orbit become known.
The asteroid, known as 2003 QQ47, was discovered on August 24 by
the
Lincoln Near Earth Asteroid Research Programme in Socorro, New
Mexico.
Early calculations of its orbit show that it will pass very close
to the
Earth on March 21, 2014, and that there is at least a theoretical
possibility of a collision.
Astronomers have given it a value of one on the Torino scale,
which
grades the potential risk to the Earth from zero, signifying no
danger,
to ten, meaning a catastrophic collision of the sort that wiped
out the
dinosaurs. A rating of one judges an impact to be extremely
unlikely,
but not impossible.
During the first week in which scientists have known of 2003
QQ47's
existence, however, they have been able to observe it only 51
times.
This has provided far too little data to estimate its orbit with
great
accuracy, and astronomers expect to rule out any prospect of a
collision
as they watch it more closely.
Alan Fitzsimmons of Queen's University Belfast, an adviser to the
Near
Earth Object Information Centre in Leicester, said: "I would
say there
is no cause for concern at all. The near-Earth object will be
observable
from Earth for the next two months, and astronomers will continue
to
track it over this period.
"In all probability, within the next month we will know its
future orbit
with an accuracy which will mean we will be able to rule out any
impact.
Previously this year we have had several asteroids, which have
had much
higher probabilities of colliding with the Earth in the next 100
years,
and they have almost all been ruled out."
If 2003 QQ47, which is three quarters of a mile across and has an
estimated mass of 2,600 million tonnes, were to strike the Earth,
its
effects would be devastating. The rock is a tenth of the size of
the one
that landed at Chicxulub in Mexico 65 million years ago, causing
the
climatic disaster that is thought to have led to the extinction
of the
dinosaurs, but it would still release enough energy to lay waste
to a
continent.
It would strike the Earth at a speed of 75,000mph, exploding with
a
force equivalent to 350,000 megatonnes of TNT, about eight
million times
greater than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.
Although this asteroid is very unlikely to hit the Earth, it is
certain
that one will do so at some point in the future. Asteroids up to
100m
across strike approximately once every 50 to 1,000 years and can
cause
severe local devastation, as is thought to have happened at
Tunguska in
Siberia in 1908.
Larger objects, capable of causing regional devastation, strike
every
1,000 to 100,000 years, and ones more than a mile across, which
can
cause "nuclear winter" effects, hit still less
frequently.
Sara Russell, a meteorite researcher at the Natural History
Museum in
London, said she was not worried that 2003 QQ47 would be a
danger. "The
odds are very, very low," she said. "We have to keep
some kind of
perspective."
Kevin Yates, project manager for the Leicester information
centre, said:
"As additional observations are made over the coming months,
and the
uncertainties decrease, asteroid 2003 QQ47 is likely to drop down
the
Torino scale. We will continue to monitor the latest results of
observations and publish regular updates on our website."
Lembit Opik, the Liberal Democrat MP who campaigns for
international
action to protect the world from asteroids, said: "The
stakes are so
high that we should not prepare by crossing our fingers and
closing our
eyes. How much more does the Government need to see? It is time
for us
to wake up and smell the coffee."
William Hill, the bookmaker, said that it would be happy to take
bets at
odds of 909,000 to one that the asteroid would hit. A company
spokesman
said: "On the principle that if the asteroid does wipe out
life on
Earth, we probably won't have to worry about paying out to
winning
customers, we will happily take all such bets."
Odds on an even more likely ending
The odds of 909,000 to 1 that 2003 QQ47 will hit Earth will be
sobering
news for millions of National Lottery fans, who gamble on odds of
14
million to 1 (Sam Coates writes).
They are more than 15 times more likely to be obliterated by the
asteroid than to win the jackpot.
Acutuarial calculations, which can predict the likelihood of
almost
every event in life and death, often make uncomfortable reading
for
gamblers.
A recent compilation of actuarial statistics from around the
world has
revealed that the chances of being:
* Killed by lightning is 1 in 10 million
* Killed in a road accident is 1 in 8,000
* Killed as a pedestrian in the United States is 50,000 to 1
* Drowned in a bath in the US is 807,000 to 1
* Killed in a bus crash is 13 million to 1
* Fatally injured by a dog bite is 10.5 million to 1
* Injured in a game of tennis, waterskiing or surfboarding is 1
in 500
Copyright 2003, The Times
=============
Given the very short arcs across the sky subtended by the
thousands of
main-belt asteroids that are detected each lunation, possible
Earth-impact trajectories could be drawn through many of them.
Yet it
would definitely not be appropriate to send out any sort of
announcement
every time we calculate such a remote impact risk as this.
Observations taken during one night - as those that led to the
SG344
announcement were - don't produce any sort of certainty in an
orbit
prediction. It has also become obvious that the existence of the
Torino
Scale, flawed as it is in several aspects, has been quite
ineffective in
terms of its main aim of enlightening the public. In fact, we
could in
the future have cases of objects reaching Torino level 6 or 7
(presumably with the associated worry to the public), before
plummeting
to zero as soon as extra data allow the object's orbit to be
calculated
more precisely.
The SG344 asteroid scare, based on a highly vague set of
observations
taken during one single night, and its retraction less than 24
hours
later, demonstrates that we have still not learned our lessons
from past
mistakes and embarrassments. It is important that these blunders
are not
repeated again.
--Benny Peiser, Astronomy Now, October 2000
============= LETTERS ===========
(7) ASTEROIDS DO NOT "HAVE RISKS"
John Michael Williams <jwill@AstraGate.net>
Hi Benny.
I have one point of criticism, with a hope that better use of
words
might improve decisions:
> CCNet 64/2003 - LINEAR & JPL SWIFTLY TERMINATE FALSE
ASTEROID ALARM
>
3 September 2003
>
-------------------------------------------------------------------
> ... (2) ASTEROID STRIKE RULED OUT FOR 2014
> After alert, further observations eliminate risk of
collision
>
> MSNBC, 2 September 2003
> http://www.msnbc.com/news/960340.asp?0cv=TB10
>
> By Alan Boyle
> MSNBC
> ...
>
> "We have many asteroids that have residual risks,"
Paul
> Chodas, a research scientist at JPL who specializes in
calculating
> the orbits of near-Earth objects. "This
particular one was of
> interest because it is fairly large, ...
> ...
Actually, the asteroids don't "have risks"; the people
observing them
have fears. Or, maybe, the people observing them have assigned
orbits to
them.
Saying that an asteroid has a risk is a little like saying a
burglar has
a criminal record. Unless he has just burglarized the
courthouse, the
burglar doesn't have the record; the police do.
Just a suggestion to keep objectivity alive and in view of the
living .
. ..
--
John
jwill@AstraGate.net
John Michael Williams
==============
(8) AND FINALLY: PAGE 3 GIRL'S HEAVENLY BODY COMMENT
The Sun, 3 September 2003, Page 3!
Heavenly body Nikkala isn't panicked by news that an asteroid
could hit
Earth in 2014. She says: "They say the chances of it hitting
are lower
than the odds of scooping the Lotto jackpot. But why worry? Let's
just
hope it is thrown off course!"
-----------
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*
APOCALYPSE NOT: "KILLER ASTEROID" WILL PASS US BY
Agence France Presse, 3 September 2003, 13:00 UT
PARIS, Sept 3 (AFP) - The Earth is not quite so doomed, experts
said
Wednesday.
Fears that a giant asteroid could wack into the planet on March
21 2014
and plunge it into a nuclear winter are misplaced, they said,
explaining
that fresh calculations showed the monster rock would safely pass
us by.
The asteroid, known as 2003 QQ47, was first spotted on August 24,
and
NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), making a preliminary
estimate of
its orbit, said there was a tiny chance -- one in only 909,000 --
that
it would collide with Earth.
Around 1.2 kilometers (two-thirds of a mile) across, and hurtling
through space at 120,000 kilometers (75,000 miles) per hour, 2003
QQ47
would unleash energy equivalent to 350,000 megatonnes of TNT, or
eight
million times the power of the Hiroshima bomb.
2003 QQ47 was initially graded the lowest step on the Torino
scale,
which rates the chances of newly discovered asteroids and comets
hitting
the Earth.
This grading means the asteroid is not a significant risk but
"merits
special monitoring."
But asteroid experts, in a circular distributed among their
community on
Wednesday and received by AFP, have now downgraded that risk and
accused
the media [??] of hyping the scare.
NASA specialist Ron Baalke said that the agency's Lincoln Near
Asteroid
Research (LINEAR) telescope in New Mexico was tasked on Tuesday
to make
further observations of 2003 QQ47.
"We've just computed a new orbit solution, and 2003 QQ47 has
dropped to
Torino (zero)," Baalke announced. "(...) The 2014
potential impact has
been eliminated."
The asteroid is around one-tenth of the size of the rock that is
believed to have wiped out dinosaurs on Earth 65 million years
ago.
Asteroids such as 2003 QQ47 are chunks of rock left over from the
formation of the Solar System 4.5 billion years ago.
Most are kept at a safe distance from Earth in the asteroid belt
between
the orbits of Mars and Jupiter.
But the gravitational influence of giant planets such as Jupiter
can
nudge asteroids out of these safe orbits and send them plunging
into the
Earth's neighbourhood.
Copyright 2003, Agence France Presse
*
CCNet SPECIAL: ASTEROID DOOMSDAY 'RISK' EVAPORATES AFTER MEDIA
FANS
FLAMES
------------------------------------------------------------------------
A spokesman for William Hill bookmakers likened the 1-in-909,000
odds of
doom to the chance that a manned expedition to Mars would arrive
and discover the Loch Ness Monster there, or the equally probably
scenario that Elvis Presley would reappear and marry Madonna. We
now know that the latter two scenarios are far more likely
than the world ending in 2014 due to an impact by asteroid 2003
QQ47.
--Rob Britt, 3 September 2003
(1) ASTEROID DOOMSDAY 'RISK' EVAPORATES AFTER MEDIA FANS FLAMES
(2) IMPACT SCARES IN MODERN TIMES
(3) AND FINALLY: SOME OF TODAY'S 'RESPONSIBLE COVERAGE'
=============
(1) ASTEROID DOOMSDAY 'RISK' EVAPORATES AFTER MEDIA FANS FLAMES
Space.com, 3 September 2003
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/asteroid_norisk_030903.html
By Robert Roy Britt
Senior Science Writer
posted: 09:45 am ET
03 September 2003
A newly discovered asteroid that generated doomsday headlines
around the
world yesterday morning was, by the end of the day, reduced to
innocuous
status as additional observations showed it would not hit Earth.
Meanwhile, a whirlwind of media hype has astronomers and asteroid
analysts arguing among themselves -- again -- about how they
should
disseminate information to the public.
By one expert account, it was business as usual in the Near Earth
Object
(NEO) community, a loose-knit group of global researchers who
find,
catalogue, analyze and frequently spout off about asteroids that
might
one day slam into our planet.
Virtual impact
Asteroid 2003 QQ47 was discovered Aug. 24 by the Lincoln Near
Earth
Asteroid Research Program (LINEAR).
Based on limited data collected during just a few days in late
August,
astronomers at first could not rule out the possibility that the
giant
rock would hit Earth. They gave it 1-in-909,000 odds of impact in
2014
and catalogued it as a 1 on the Torino hazard scale, a
designation that
merits "careful monitoring."
Its size -- three-quarters of a mile wide (1.2 kilometers) --
explains
some of the attention 2003 QQ47 received. Were a rock that big to
hit
Earth, the climatic consequences would be global and it would
cause, at
the least, widespread regional devastation.
But only a zero rating is lower on the Torino scale, which goes
as high
as 10.
Astronomers agree that a rating of 1 is not cause for public
concern.
Most experts do not believe the mainstream press should waste
time
reporting on such an object. Several other newfound asteroids
receiving
similar designation in recent years have fallen off the list
within
days, as more observations allowed for refined orbital
projections.
Nonetheless, a press release issued early Tuesday by the British
government's Near Earth Object Information Center fueled
widespread
media coverage, including a wire story by Reuters that many
asteroid
experts saw as inflammatory.
Headlines were over-the-top, most researchers felt. They included
"Armageddon set for March 21, 2014" and "Earth is
Doomed."
By late yesterday, however, more observations allowed astronomers
to
conclude there was no chance for impact in 2014.
Old news
The incident was just one in a long series miscues involving
astronomers, their public relations efforts, and a media eager to
report
potential doom.
"It would appear that all the lessons learned from five
years of our PR
blunders, media gaffes and errors of judgement have been
forgotten,"
said Benny Peiser, a social anthropologist and asteroid analyst
at
Liverpool John Moores University in the UK.
A handful of similar scares -- about one per year -- have
evaporated in
similar fashion as professional astronomers go about their
business of
finding and tracking potentially dangerous asteroids.
The NEO information Center, whose press release ignited the
latest fiery
press coverage, issued a follow-up statement early this morning.
"The NEO Information Center aims to keep the public and
media informed
of these kinds of issues, as they unfold rather than after the
fact,"
the statement said. "This approach ensures we can promote
understanding
of the process of asteroid detection, tracking and risk
assessment."
Kevin Yates, project manager for the center, had said in the
original
press release that additional observations would likely eliminate
reveal
a reduced risk.
Today, Yates said, "Openly sharing this sort of information,
in a
non-sensationalist way, should help to dispel the popular myth
that
governments and astronomers would keep the discovery of a
dangerous
asteroid secret. I hope the coverage of this story will give the
general
public more of a feel for how the assessment of risk evolves over
time
as more observations are made."
The NEO Information Center's statement today concluded with a
bizarre
note of praise for the media that sounded defensive to others in
the NEO
community.
"The NEO Information Center would like to thank the media
for what, on
the whole, has been responsible coverage of this story. Almost
all of
the press and broadcast coverage has included reference to our
original
statements that the probability of impact was very low at just
1-in-909
000, and that the Torino rating was likely to drop following
further
observations."
"Undermining our integrity"
Peiser did not share the center's rosy view for how the whole
thing
unfolded. He runs an electronic newsletter called CCNet, a forum
for
discussing the research and risks associated with NEOs, as well
as the
impact of media coverage on the public view of asteroid research
and the
credibility of the researchers.
"I'm afraid that any attempt to justify an ill-timed and
unnecessary
media campaign doesn't bode well for the NEO community's efforts
to
avoid false asteroid alarms that only risk undermining our
integrity,"
Peiser wrote in the latest edition of CCNet today.
Peiser leveled this accusation at the center: "Crying wolf
becomes
official policy."
The first and most notorious false asteroid alarm dates back to
1998.
Then an astronomer went public with data showing that asteroid
1997 XF11
had a chance of hitting Earth in the year 2028. Once the asteroid
was
rendered harmless by more observations, a debate began as to if,
when
and how to release preliminary asteroid data to the media and the
public.
Though new agencies, institutions and programs have since been
set up to
better manage the situation, little has changes. A similar scare
developed last summer, when British media hyped the potential
danger of
2002 NT7. In that situation, astronomers were candid and vocal in
their
criticism of the British press.
Like the return of Elvis
One thing has changed of late: There is an increasing sense of
sarcasm
in the media with each new asteroid scare. Some reporters and
editors
are getting wise to the long odds -- or perhaps tired of having
to
report on them -- and doing more than just sensationalizing the
data.
One story yesterday made light of the initial chances of 2003
QQ47
hitting Earth.
Sky News, a British publisher, said a bookmaker was taking bets
on the
prospect. A spokesman for William Hill bookmakers likened the
1-in-909,000 odds of doom to the chance that a manned expedition
to Mars
would arrive and discover the Loch Ness Monster there, or the
equally
probably scenario that Elvis Presley would reappear and marry
Madonna.
We now know that the latter two scenarios are far more likely
than the
world ending in 2014 due to an impact by asteroid 2003 QQ47.
Copyright 2003, Space.com
=========== LETTERS =============
(2) IMPACT SCARES IN MODERN TIMES
Mark R. Kidger <mrk@ll.iac.es>
Benny:
I think that the matter of 2003 QQ47 is a reflection of the
blessing and
the curse of modern times, particularly the improvements in
astrometry
and calculating power, but also in the Internet as a
communicator.
One only has to think of Hermes that was observed for just a
4-day arc
and was then totally lost. Had Hermes made that close pass today
there
would have been hundreds of very precise astrometric measures
from all
around the world. The numbers would have been crunched by at very
least
the MPC and JPL and we would have had a hard orbit solution that
would
have allowed recovery. The tremendous computing power available
would
have produced an extrapolation of the orbit over several decades.
Undoubtedly this extrapolation would have shown a large number of
virtual impactors that would have led to astronomers moving the
Earth
(almost literally in some cases) to observe the object and
increase the
arc. With the increased arc the uncertainties would reduce and
"voilá!",
suddenly - probably in only a week or so - it would no longer be
a
threat, but not before someone had noticed that this was an
exceptional
object and passed the word on the Internet.
We sometimes just do not appreciate the significance of the
revolution
in observing techniques and computing power. Even in the 1950s
and '60s
it was normal that a new short period comet would not have a
reasonably
reliable orbit for months after discovery, now we are very often
getting
a very exact orbit with a period accurate to 0.1% or better in a
week
just because so much data is available to orbit calculators and
these in
turn have an extraordinary capability to make highly accurate
calculations with the data.
I must admit that now I pay almost no attention to these impactor
scares
because they are often based on very short orbital arcs (in the
case of
2003 QQ47 we have all of 9 days now). It is perfectly logical
that with
a very short orbital arc extrapolated many years into the future
that
all kinds of possible impact solutions should appear. If we
remember the
case of 1997 XF11 - sorry to bring it up, but it is a classic
case - the
entire problem was because there was an error of about 15 minutes
in its
calculated orbital period which, summed over 30 years, led to a
rather
large error in its extrapolated position. Now most members of the
public
would accept that a 15 minute error in the period of 1997 XF11
was
really extraordinary precision with what was quite scanty data.
However,
as more data becomes available, the uncertainties in the orbit
reduce to
quite extraordinary levels that the orbital calculators of 30
years ago
would have envied and not quite believed.
The whole business of NEOs and impacts works with numbers that
are
beyond the ability of most people to understand. An impact risk
of 1 in
100000 raises some excitement among the public, particularly in
the
August "silly season" when there is usually a shortage
of political news
stories and most newspapers and even tv bulletins have to fill in
a lot,
but it is a 99.9999% chance of NOTHING WHATSOEVER happening.
People are
willing to bet on such odds, for example in the National or State
lotteries - although I suspect that the reason is that they think
only
of the headline winning figure, not the very large probability of
winning nothing whatsoever-, but if you were offered the chance
to bet
on a horse in a race at 100000-1 by a bookmaker you would almost
certainly think that he was taking you for an idiot because
nobody would
waste money betting on those odds.
The whole business is a reflection that techniques have advanced
far
beyond our capability to process the information and communicate
it in
an understandable way even to most scientists.
The up side of the easy availability of data on risks and virtual
impactors is that it leads to large numbers of observations being
taken
of these objects. The down side is that occasionally you will
have a
short-arc object that produces a spectacular solution and that
that will
get picked up by the media.
What is obvious is that virtual impactors based on very short
arcs are
almost certainly going to disappear as more data arrives, as was
this
case. The only time that such objects should get us
"excited" is when,
as new data arrives, the impact risk increases rather than
decreasing -
which was briefly the case with 1997 XF11. Thus the most
important
pieces of information to point out to scientists, journalists and
public
alike are:
* How good is the orbit?
If it is an arc of just a few nights or weeks one must ask just
how good
the extrapolation over some decades will be (and here the answer
depends
on the sampling of the data). When an arc is very short (as was
the case
of 2003 QQ47) it must be made clear that the extrapolation is
subject to
large errors - in other words, the risk must be talked down as
much as
possible until the orbit firms up.
* What is the trend in the risk?
As new data is added to the orbit, does the impact risk increase
or
decrease? If it decreases then there really is nothing to worry
about.
Only in the very rare cases where it *increases* should the
object be
highlighted.
The great importance of risk web pages is that they allow
astronomers to
see which are the objects that are of interest, but the emphasis
should
be very firmly on asking astronomers to collaborate in
eliminating the
very tiny risk that these objects may hit the Earth, rather than
highlight tiny probabilities that a particular object may be a
threat
unless we see a case of increasing probability of impact.
Mark Kidger
=================
(3) AND FINALLY: SOME OF TODAY'S 'RESPONSIBLE COVERAGE'
EARTH FACES ASTEROID HIT IN 2014
COURIER MAIL (AUSTRALIA) - 3 September 2003
ASTEROID ON CRASH COURSE
HERALD SUN (AUSTRALIA) - 3rd September 2003
COLLISION ONE IN A MILLION
ADVERTISER (AUSTRALIA) - 3rd September 2003
EARTH BRACED FOR IMPACT
GOLD COAST BULLETIN (AUSTRALIA) - 3rd September 2003
ASTEROID IS ON WAY - MAYBE
NEW YORK POST (USA), 3 September 2003
ARMAGEDDON ASTEROID HEADING FOR EARTH.
DAILY STAR (LONDON, UK) - 3 September 2003
THE END OF US ALL
DAILY STAR (LONDON, UK) - 3 September 2003
WE'RE DOOMED. GIANT ASTEROID TO HIT EARTH ON MARCH 21, 2014 (ER,
POSSIBLY)
EXPRESS (LONDON, UK) - 3 September 2003
21/3/2014: END OF LIFE ON EARTH - PERHAPS
NEWCASTLE JOURNAL - 3 September 2003
ASTEROID MAY END LIFE ON EARTH - OR NOT
HAMILTON SPECTATOR - 3 September 2003
FORGET MARS, ASTEROID ATTACKS
Business Day, 3 September
Astronomer avblåser asteroidealarm (Norwegian)
Verdens Gang, 3 September 2003
Asteroid sa v roku 2014 priblízi k Zemi (Slovak)
Pravda, 3 September 2003
ASTEROID SAUST AUF DIE ERDE ZU
Hamburger Abendblatt, 3 September 2003
Asteróide Poderá Atingir a Terra em 2014 (Portuguese)
Público, 3 September 2003
Sin noticias de la Tierra (Spanish)
La Rioja, 3 September 2003
Un nuevo asteroide se acerca a la Tierra
El Periodico, 3 September 2003
Scientists: Huge Asteroid Could Hit Earth in 2014
Voa News, 3 September 2003
-----------
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please contact the moderator Benny Peiser <b.j.peiser@livjm.ac.uk>.
Information circulated on this network is for scholarly and
educational
use only. The attached information may not be copied or
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any other purposes without prior permission of the copyright
holders.
DISCLAIMER: The opinions, beliefs and viewpoints expressed in the
articles and texts and in other CCNet contributions do not
necessarily
reflect the opinions, beliefs and viewpoints of the moderator of
this
network.