PLEASE NOTE:
*
CCNet 84/2003 - 9 October 2003
WELSH 'FIREBALL' MYSTERY UNRAVELLED
-----------------------------------
It is quite funny really. A 15-year-old schoolboy has baffled
scientists
around the world with this picture. We have had hundreds of
emails from
people across the world. We never thought that a photograph could
stir up
this much interest. But we are all keeping an open mind until
someone can
tell us firmly what it is. And that is all that Jon wants to know
too -
he wants someone to tell us for once and for all, what it is.
--Jonathan Burnett's father, BBC News
Online, 7 October 2003
Kudos definitely go to Mike Stradling for suggesting the Concorde
as a possible explanation for the contrail. All I did was
take it
a step further and research the actual departure time of the
London --> New York daily flight and compute an expected
time of the pass over southern Wales. It all comes together
nicely -- the tracks in the two photos (one from Porthcawl, one
from Pencoed) when input to my triangulation software result in
an aircraft-like trajectory, and the Concorde was in the right
place at the right time going in the right direction to produce
just such a track.
--Robert Matson, CCNet, 9 October 2003
(1) WELSH 'FIREBALL' MYSTERY UNRAVELLED
Robert Matson <ROBERT.D.MATSON@saic.com>
(2) GLOBAL DEBATE OVER 'METEOR' SNAP
BBC News Online, 7 October 2003
(3) ORISSA METEORITE A 'CHONDRITE' STONE: ORSAC
Pragativadi, 3 October 2003
(4) THE BIG QUESTION
Asteroid/Comet Connection, 8 October
2003
(5) U.S. SPACE SUBCOMMITTEE APPROVES PETE CONRAD ASTRONOMY AWARDS
ACT
Ron Baalke <baalke@zagami.jpl.nasa.gov>
(6) EDWARD TELLER (1908-2003)
David Morrison <dmorrison@arc.nasa.gov>
(7) CHICXULUB IMPACT CRATER AND THE K/T MASS EXTINCTION,
REVISITED
Jan Smit <smit@geo.vu.nl>
(8) AN IMPACT ROLE IN THE FOUNDATION OF EPHESOS?
Daniel Fischer <dfischer@astro.uni-bonn.de>
(9) CORRECTION: EARLY TERRESTRIAL MARIA-LIKE IMPACT BASINS
Andrew Glikson <geospec@webone.com.au>
(10) AND FINALLY: THE REAL CAUSE BEHIND PRINCESS DIANA'S
DEATH....
E.L.G. Bowell <Edward.Bowell@lowell.edu>
========
(1) WELSH 'FIREBALL' MYSTERY UNRAVELLED
Robert Matson <ROBERT.D.MATSON@saic.com>
Hi Benny,
Kudos definitely go to Mike Stradling for suggesting the Concorde
as a possible explanation for the contrail. All I did was
take it
a step further and research the actual departure time of the
London --> New York daily flight and compute an expected
time of the pass over southern Wales. It all comes together
nicely -- the tracks in the two photos (one from Porthcawl, one
from Pencoed) when input to my triangulation software result in
an aircraft-like trajectory, and the Concorde was in the right
place at the right time going in the right direction to produce
just such a track.
Cheers,
Rob
----
Robert Matson <ROBERT.D.MATSON@saic.com>
posted on meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com
Hi again,
I downloaded the latest British Airways Worldwide Timetable, good
for
dates from July 1st, 2003 to October 25th, 2003, and have
confirmed
that the Concorde is scheduled to leave nightly at 6:30pm out of
Heathrow for JFK at 18:30 out of terminal 4 -- flight
BA001. (At least
for the next 17 days). The arrival time is 17:25 at JFK, which is
3 hours 55 minutes later. The website reports that the flight
time
is actually only 3 1/2 hours, so there's 25 minutes of fluff in
the
schedule. Splitting the fluff equally between Heathrow and
JFK means
an ~18:42:30 take off.
Concorde's takeoff speed in 250 mph, and Heathrow is ~180 miles
east
of southern Wales. If they flew a straight line and averaged 450
mph
over that distance, they'd be over Porthcawl in 24 minutes.
(Given
that they have to fly subsonic over land, I doubt they can
average
much more than 450 mph over the first 24 minutes of flight).
So: 18:30 + 00:12:30 + 00:24 = 19:06:30
The Pencoed picture was supposedly taken around 19:13, when the
object
producing the contrail is already well out over the water. I
don't
know about you, but I'd say the circumstantial evidence is pretty
strong. (One might well ask, "If that's NOT the Concorde's
contrail,
where ~is~ the Concorde's contrail, since it ought to be in the
same
field of view?!")
Isn't it nice when all the facts come together to form a
coherent,
logical, simple explanation? --Rob
============
(2) GLOBAL DEBATE OVER 'METEOR' SNAP
BBC News Online, 7 October 2003
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/south_east/3172062.stm
A schoolboy whose dramatic picture of a fireball has baffled
scientists across the world is appealing for a firm explanation
of his remarkable snapshot.
The American space agency Nasa now thinks that Jonathan Burnett's
photo could be an unusual trail left by an aeroplane which has
reflected the setting sun.
The picture captured global attention when Jonathan emailed it to
Nasa, which published it with the theory that he had snapped a
rare shot of a meteor burning up.
Now Jonathan, 15, from Pencoed, near Bridgend, south Wales, has
been inundated with people suggesting different ideas.
His father Paul said: "We have lost count of the number of
people who have emailed us with various explanations of what the
picture could be of.
"Some have said it is a jet stream, others say it is light
reflecting off the clouds and some say it is a meteor.
"But no-one can offer us a firm explanation to what it
really is.
"Nobody seems to know," he added.
Sofa-sized rock
Jonathan was thrust into the spotlight after a bright light in
the sky caught his attention when he was taking snaps of his
friends.
He managed to take two pictures and emailed them to Nasa, which
later published one on its Astronomy Picture Of The Day web page,
with the suggestion that it was a sofa-sized rock which exploded
into a fireball.
Jonathan Burnett is looking for a firm explanation
Scientists in the UK are are also trying to find an explanation
with research being undertaken by the Spaceguard Centre in
Knighton, Powys.
"It is quite funny really," said Jonathan's father.
"A 15-year-old schoolboy has baffled scientists around the
world with this picture.
"We have had hundreds of emails from people across the
world.
"We never thought that a photograph could stir up this much
interest.
"But we are all keeping an open mind until someone can tell
us firmly what it is.
"And that is all that Jon wants to know too - he wants
someone to tell us for once and for all, what it is," he
added.
Copyright 2003, BBC
=============
(3) ORISSA METEORITE A 'CHONDRITE' STONE: ORSAC
Pragativadi, 3 October 2003
http://www.pragativadi.com/031003/local2.htm
Bhubaneswar: The Orissa Remote Sensing Application Centre (ORSAC)
has revealed some new facts about the remnants of the meteor that
was watched on Orissa sky on September 27 last.
A meteor fragment (a meteorite) could either be a stone, stony
iron or even iron. The one that crashed onto the Earth's surface
last week was a 'stone,' the ORSAC says.
The 'stone' has round balls of milli-meter size which are called
'chondrules' and scientists call the meteorite 'Chondrite.'
According to the remote sensing application centre, 'chondrules'
are not seen on Earth since those were the first grains to be
formed in solar system about 4,560 million years ago.
The stone-type meteorites are divided into 'Chondrites' and
'Achondrites,' the latter doesn't have chondrules and they tell a
lot about planets as well as asteroids.
ORSAC, which has three stones in its custody, will hand them over
to Indian Space Research Organisations (ISRO)'s Physical Research
Laboratory located at Ahmedabad for analysis and study.
Later, these 'stones' will be housed at Geological Survey of
India's National Museum, Kolkata.
Of the three stones now in ORSAC's custody, the heaviest one
weighed 1.7 kg which was found from Suniti in Kendrapara.
Two others, weighing 900 gm and 250 gm, were found from Bolagarh
in Khurda district.
According to ORSAC, the meteorite that fell in Orissa had a very
bright trail and as per scientific observation, small stones fall
at the beginning of the trail while the biggest piece is found at
the end of it.
The biggest stone found this time weighs about 5.7 kg and is at
Kendrapara collectorate.
The centre has called for a combined study of the extraordinary
event that Orissa was witness to. It has also asked people, who
have collected any debris of the meteor, to make them available
with ORSAC for further study.
=========
(4) THE BIG QUESTION
Asteroid/Comet Connection, 8 October 2003
http://www.hohmanntransfer.com/news.htm
After more than three weeks of news about bolides seen around the
globe and about tiny globe-buzzing asteroids, the big question
is, Has Earth encountered some kind of minor object stream? It
has even been suggested that all this activity could be
associated with fireballs seen last September and October, as if
Earth is on its second pass through a field of space boulders. In
regard to just two events separated by a few hours, one over
California and another over Europe, a San Jose Mercury article of
September 30th (http://www.bayarea.com/mld/mercurynews/news/6903000.htm)
quoted Peter Jenniskens, who studies such streams for NASA, as
saying "maybe we have a bit of a shower of bright fireballs
going on at the moment."
Space.com, in its October 6th article (http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/asteroid_close_031006.html)
about tiny 2003 SQ222, quotes Clark Chapman as saying it is hard
to see how there could be a connection between events separated
by hours, "let alone things that are happening over the
course of a week or two. But . . . there have been a lot of these
reports. . . So who knows?" And he told Space.com
incidentally that "about a week ago, my wife and I saw a
gigantic bolide." (If that was seen over Colorado, it hasn't
yet been reported on Chris Peterson's Fireballs page as of last
check.)
One reason for so many recent tiny asteroid discoveries is that
observatory hardware and techniques are becoming ever better at
discovering small fast-moving objects, and there are a lot to
discover. The Space.com article reports from Alan Harris that an
estimated 3,000 asteroids pass between the Earth and Moon every
year, and "Perhaps 100 of them come closer than 2003
SQ222."
It is very human for people to try to find a pattern in poorly
understood natural events. But, thanks to the Web and an
increased public awareness and interest, it could be that
witnesses and the news media are just doing a better job of
telling the world about local experiences of a randomly scattered
but overall constant phenomenon.
There is, however, also this: A report last November about large
atmospheric events, "The flux of small near-Earth objects
colliding with the Earth," was widely hailed as lowering
estimated impact risks (see A/CC news links http://www.hohmanntransfer.com/news/0211.htm#satmet).
But lead author Peter Brown also issued some big caveats, such
as: "a key uncertainty remains, says Brown: whether large
and dangerous meteors are concentrated in streams" (New
Scientist), and "Based on past observations, it seems likely
there is also a non-random component to the impact flux at these
smaller sizes which would suggest our estimates are lower bounds
to the true impact risk" (UWO news release).
===========
(5) U.S. SPACE SUBCOMMITTEE APPROVES PETE CONRAD ASTRONOMY AWARDS
ACT
Ron Baalke <baalke@zagami.jpl.nasa.gov>
http://www.house.gov/science/press/108/108-121.htm
Committee on
Science
Press Contacts:
SHERWOOD BOEHLERT,
CHAIRMAN
Heidi Mohlman Tringe
Ralph M. Hall, Texas, Ranking Democrat Jeff
Donald
(202) 225-4275
SPACE SUBCOMMITTEE APPROVES FOUR BILLS
WASHINGTON, D.C., October 8, 2003 - The House Science
Subcommittee on
Space and Aeronautics today approved four bills by voice vote,
listed
below.
[snip]
H.R. 912, "Charles `Pete' Conrad Astronomy Awards Act,"
sponsored by Rep.
Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA)
The Charles "Pete" Conrad Astronomy Awards Act, named
for the third man to
walk on the moon, establishes awards to encourage amateur
astronomers to
discover and track asteroids crossing in a near-Earth orbit.
Earth has
experienced several near-misses with asteroids that would have
proven
catastrophic, and the scientific community relies heavily on
amateur
astronomers to discover and track these objects. The bill
authorizes
$10,000 for each of fiscal years 2004 and 2005 for NASA to
administer the
program. The House approved the bill by voice vote last year.
"Pete Conrad was a pilot, explorer, and entrepreneur of the
highest
caliber. I think it is fitting that we honor Pete Conrad by
establishing
this award to encourage amateur astronomers and private citizens
to keep
looking up and out into the future," said Rohrabacher.
[snip]
==========
(6) EDWARD TELLER (1908-2003)
David Morrison <dmorrison@arc.nasa.gov>
NEO News (10/08/03): EDWARD TELLER (1908-2003)
Edward Teller, arguably the world's most influential scientist in
the second half of the twentieth century, died a month ago. Late
in his life Teller became a powerful advocate for defending the
Earth against asteroids, although few of those writing about his
death take note of this final chapter in his life. This edition
of NEO News is devoted to remembering Teller's role in advocating
for the development of defenses against asteroids. Most of what
follows deals with my own interactions with Teller between 1992
and 1995. I begin with the opening comments from the New York
Times obituary.
David Morrison
===============================
NEW YORK TIMES OBITUARY (opening paragraphs)
September 11, 2003
By William J. Broad and Walter Sullivan
Edward Teller, a towering figure of science who had a singular
impact on the development of the nuclear age, died late Tuesday
at his home in Stanford, Calif. He was 95.
Widely seen as a troubled genius, Dr. Teller generated hot debate
for more than a half century, even as he engendered many features
of the modern world.
A creator of quantum physics who loved to play Bach and Beethoven
as an amateur pianist, the Hungarian-born physicist helped found
the nuclear era with his work on the atom bomb, played a dominant
role in inventing the hydrogen bomb (though he often protested
being called its father), battled for decades on behalf of
nuclear power and lobbied fervently for the building of
antimissile defenses, which the nation is now erecting.
His antimissile efforts, obsessive by most accounts and dismissed
by critics as doomed to failure, were his way of trying to
protect his adopted country from the horrors he helped bring into
the world.
Dr. Teller's actions split scientists into warring camps and
created huge, lingering controversies over his legacy, including
whether his work in the cold war had fostered a dangerous nuclear
arms race or an uneasy peace that helped crush Soviet Communism.
============================
TELLER AT LOS ALAMOS, January 1992
Notes from David Morrison with Clark Chapman
(adapted from an unpublished book manuscript)
In 1991 Congress had charged NASA to develop a specific plan for
an asteroid survey, through its Spaceguard Working Group, which I
chaired. The second part of the Congressional request to NASA
asked for an analysis of the technology that might be used for
asteroid protection, if a threatening object were actually
discovered. To address the technology issues, John Rather of NASA
Headquarters convened a single brainstorming meeting in January
1992 where ideas on defense technologies could be brought
forward. Rather invited many of his former colleagues from the
nuclear weapons laboratories (Los Alamos and Livermore), and he
held his workshop at Los Alamos National Laboratory in New
Mexico. A few of us astronomers also were invited to this defense
technology workshop at the last minute.
From the perspective of the astronomers, the meeting got off to a
bad start by featuring a 1990 report by Teller's protégé Lowell
Wood and colleagues, which asserted that any asteroidal
projectile larger than 4 m in diameter would penetrate through
the atmosphere and impact explosively, with a potential for
widespread damage and many fatalities. Wood estimated that the
Earth was struck by projectiles of 4 m or larger diameter about
annually, producing property damage of about $60 million and
hundreds of deaths per year, on average. In his words, "it's
the stuff between a truck and a house in scale which rains down
on our fair planet at rates of dozens to hundreds of strikes per
century." These assumptions were so obviously inconsistent
with the real world that we were perplexed. Some of us wondered
if it was coincidental that the 4-m asteroidal adversaries that
dominated Wood's paper were about the same size as an ICBM.
Wood's interest in shooting down small asteroids was initially
supported by Teller, whose presence dominated the Los Alamos
workshop. This was our first contact with Teller, who had only
recently become interested in defenses against asteroids. Leaning
on his staff -- a thick wooden pole with a leather grip at
shoulder height -- Teller immediately commanded attention. His
gravelly voice was clear and authoritative, and his cadence was
exceptionally slow, with each word enunciated precisely in a
Hungarian accent. We saw that he was treated with extraordinary
deference. Once, when Rather, as chair of a session, began to
comment after a speaker had finished, Teller's rumble became
audible. Rather instantly interrupted himself in
mid-sentence to give his mentor the floor: "Oh, Dr.
Teller, I am so sorry...I believe you want to speak?"
He was always formally addressed as "Dr. Teller", and
at Los Alamos he had the final word on any issue.
Gene Shoemaker and I spoke in the first session at Los Alamos,
describing the results from the Spaceguard Working Group. In
particular, we noted that small asteroids did not penetrate the
Earth's atmosphere, in contradiction to Lowell Wood's paper. No
questions were asked from the audience, and we assumed that we
had made our points. When the weapons scientists began their
presentations, however, we found that most of them dealt with
ways to locate, track, intercept, and destroy 4-m asteroids
shortly before they would plunge down to Earth. Following Wood's
lead, each speaker assumed that the greatest danger was from
these 4-m "bomblets," which could be located only at
the last moment, hence requiring a virtually instantaneous
response -- interceptors on the launch-pad -- to shoot them down.
Those of us from the Spaceguard team were not sure what was
happening. It seemed to us that the weapons scientists did not
conduct their business through the open questioning and dialog
that astronomers were used to. Outwardly, everyone seemed polite
and deferential toward each other, never questioning the
presentations publicly, no matter how outlandish some of them
seemed. We wondered if Teller's dominating presence and support
for Wood contributed to suppressing open debate. Only in private
discussions with the weapons lab scientists were we able to
penetrate below this apparent unanimity and begin to explore
alternative ideas.
Several schemes were suggested for exploding asteroids into
billions of small fragments. In one approach, it was necessary to
get a large nuclear bomb into the center of the asteroid. This
would be accomplished by launching a series of closely spaced
nuclear warheads, like firecrackers on a string. The first one
would be detonated at the surface, excavating a hole. The second
warhead, following a fraction of a second behind, would explode
within the hole, deepening it. After a dozen or more such
explosions, the hole would be deep enough for a large bomb to
penetrate and provide the coup de grace. An alternative was
suggested by Teller himself, who noted that a sufficiently large
bomb detonated at the surface could disintegrate any comet or
asteroid. The challenge was to make the bomb big enough. He noted
that for the larger asteroids, a bomb would be required that was
a million times more powerful than any that had yet been
developed. Such a multi-million-megaton weapon would have no use
in terrestrial warfare, of course, but Teller suggested it might
be appropriate to develop such a bomb as part of a cosmic defense
system.
After the meeting, the astronomers compared notes. One thing that
struck us was the contrast between Teller and Shoemaker, as the
senior scientists from the two groups. Both were widely honored
scientists, with Shoemaker often called the "father of
planetary geology" just as Teller was the "father of
the H-Bomb". Shoemaker, however, was a pleasant and
unassuming man who dressed informally and readily smiled and
laughed. To all of us he was plain "Gene", a friend and
colleague, and very American in style. In contrast, Teller
projected the image of a European professor, always formally
dressed, treated with something akin to awe (or perhaps fear),
who gave speeches rather than engaging in dialog. It is hard to
imagine more different personalities or scientific styles.
==========================
TELLER'S LOS ALAMOS SPEECH, January 1992
One of the highlights of the Los Alamos Meeting was an
after-dinner speech in which Teller outlined his thoughts on
asteroid defense in more detail. Following is a transcript of
that talk as recorded by Clark Chapman.
[snip]
[posted on CCNet, 11 Sept. 2003; http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc091103.html]
===========================
TELLER AT ERICE, April 1993
Notes from David Morrison and Clark Chapman
(adapted from their unpublished book manuscript)
In the months following the Los Alamos meeting, the astronomers
and the weapons builders continued their dialogue. At Los Alamos,
Teller had focused on the problem of defending against small
asteroids, which could not be detected more than a few days in
advance of their collision with the Earth. Later in the spring of
1992, however, when he and I gave back-to-back keynote lectures
at a meeting of the National Space Society in Colorado Springs,
Teller had accepted the argument that small projectiles were not
a problem and that some sort of comprehensive asteroid survey
(the Spaceguard Survey) should be carried out to find the larger
ones. At that time he advocated conducting a space-based search
for NEOs using Star Wars technology. A series of small
satellites would be placed in Earth orbit to scan the sky for
asteroids, transmitting their observations to the ground for
analysis. By the time of the next hazard meeting, held in Tucson
in January 1993 (see below), Teller was apparently reconciled to
the cost-effectiveness of a ground-based asteroid survey like
Spaceguard.
Looking ahead to the problems of deflection, however, Teller
expressed concern about our lack of knowledge of the physical
properties of comets and asteroids. He advocated a major program
of spacecraft visits to explore the comets and asteroids, using
small and relatively inexpensive probes based on the
"brilliant eyes" surveillance system being proposed by
Lowell Wood at Livermore. He also suggested that initial
spacecraft visits should be followed by active testing, including
the experimental deflection of asteroids and comets to develop
the technology that might someday be needed for defense against a
real impact threat.
Although he remained in the background during the early
interactions between astronomers and weapons scientists, one of
the most influential figures in the impact hazard debates was
Col. Pete Worden of the U.S. Air Force. With Teller's support,
Worden decided to organize another conference on asteroid
defenses for the spring of 1993. This meeting would focus on
near-term issues, rather than "new technology" schemes.
Worden's meeting would be international, with the participation
of leaders from the Russian defense establishment. And far from
banning the press as Rather had done at Los Alamos, Worden
invited not only science reporters but also leading critics of
the Star Wars program from a number of Washington space and peace
advocacy groups. For a location, he chose the picturesque town of
Erice, perched atop a mountain on the west coast of Sicily. In
this environment, Teller was much more wiling to join in
discussion and exchange of ideas, although he still retained his
aloof professorial persona. The discussions were constructive,
and gradually agreement emerged among the participants, in spite
of their different backgrounds. The Russians seemed especially
anxious to share their decades of experience with nuclear weapons
in the service of a new, international cause.
On the final day of the Erice conference, we all gathered in the
main monastery building to agree upon a statement that summarized
the conclusions we had reached. The first four points of the
statement were relatively straightforward. The group agreed that
"cosmic impact is an environmentally significant phenomenon
which has played a major role in the evolution of life on
Earth", and that "the threat is real and requires
further internationally coordinated public education
efforts." We also agreed that "gathering of
additional physical knowledge of NEOs and their effect on the
Earth is a scientifically and socially important endeavor,"
and that "dedicated international astronomical facilities
similar to the proposed Spaceguard System should be
developed."
On a final question, however, consensus broke down. Teller
insisted that defense issues also be addressed. He was convinced
that nuclear experiments on deflecting real asteroids and comets
were necessary. He had two reasons. One was technical: the
need to learn how to accomplish such a task in advance of any
actual emergency. His second reason was political. He argued that
it would be extremely difficult to obtain international agreement
for any use of nuclear devices in space, and that we had better
start now to work out ways to deal with this problem. Teller
considered the social experiment of forging international
consensus in support of experimental deflections to be even more
challenging than the technical problems of accomplishing the
deflection once it was approved.
In the Erice environment, Teller did not automatically get his
way. Opposed by Worden, Shoemaker, and all of the Spaceguard
astronomers attending the conference, Teller found himself
engaged in a real debate. Most of us wanted to say
explicitly that we did not favor experimentation at this time,
but Teller stood his ground. He would not agree to any statement
that called for deferring experiments, while the majority would
not sign any statement that endorsed such experiments. After
heated arguments, the stalemate was resolved in the waning
minutes of the conference and compromise wording was
approved: "The study of potential mitigation systems
should be continued. Many of us believe that unless a specific
and imminent threat becomes obvious, actual construction and
testing of systems that might have the potential to deflect or
mitigate a threat may be deferred because technology systems will
improve." The "many" referred to in the statement
was nearly everyone at the meeting except Teller.
===========================
TELLER AND THE HAZARDS BOOK, 1993-94
Teller participated in what was undoubtedly the most important
scientific conference on the impact hazard, organized by Tom
Gehrels in January 1993, one year after the Los Alamos meeting.
One product was the 1200-page book Hazards Due to Comets and
Asteroids (University of Arizona Press, 1994), which contains 46
technical papers covering many aspects of impacts, ranging from
the population of asteroids and comets to defense approaches. The
presence of the two old adversaries, Teller and Carl Sagan, added
to the interest of this meeting.
Tom Gehrels hoped that Teller and Sagan would collaborate on a
short policy chapter for his book, but this proved impossible.
Teller would consider the possibility of such a collaboration,
but not with Sagan. Accordingly, Greg Canavan of Los Alamos
served as facilitator to bring me together with Teller to discuss
writing a joint chapter, focusing on the areas in which we
agreed. It was exciting for me to face the opportunity to try to
find common ground with Teller. I took notes from my discussions
with Teller and made use of the consensus resolotion from Erice
described above. In this basis I wrote a first draft,
subsequently refining the chapter with him at his office at
Stanford University.
The primary areas in which we had difficulty agreeing where those
that dealt with experiments to develop defense technologies. I
recall discussions, for example, concerning where such
experiments should be carried out. Teller advocated working with
an asteroid that came very close to the Earth in order to see the
effects from the ground. I pointed out that the debris from any
asteroid that was disrupted near the Earth would return to menace
the planet later, and that we should experiment on as asteroid
with an orbit that brought it nowhere near our planet. I won the
argument here, although in his autobiography (see below) Teller
returned to advocating that experiments be done using asteroids
that come between the earth and the moon.
Teller was anxious to argue in this forum for an open
international approach to defending our planet. The final two
paragraphs of our paper (Morrison & Teller 1994) stated:
"In the present situation, there can be little doubt that
the important decisions connected with the danger of asteroid
impact should be made by open democratic means. Under these
circumstances, scientists and engineers should limit themselves
to the finding and publication of relevant facts. Of course,
interpretations and value judgments are useful and important as
well. But the resolution of points of disagreement and the
formation of policies to deal with the impact issue must reside
with the population at large through their legitimate
representativesS.
"Our actions should be widely publicized and explained, with
secrecy restrictions abolished as completely and rapidly as
possible. This principle holds particularly for issues associated
with the use of nuclear energyS. All parts of the world are
equally at risk from impacts, and we all share a common interest
in our self-protection from such cosmic catastrophes. One of us
(E.T.) urges that experimentation should not be delayed except
for strong reasons, since procedures for protection need to be
decided on the basis of data on comets and asteroids, part of
which can be obtained only through experimentation."
The fact that Teller's iniaials were E.T. led to some humorous
comments. Teller noted that in fact extraterrestrials were among
us, but that we called them Hungarians!
========================
TELLER IN RUSSIA, September 1994
Notes from David Morrison with Clark Chapman
(adapted from an unpublished book manuscript)
Two groups of Russian scientists were interested in asteroid
defense issues. The Russian astronomers (centered in St
Petersburg) had been dealing with asteroids and asteroid orbital
dynamics for many decades. Now, however, some of the Russian
weapons scientists also began to explore the possibility of
testing nuclear explosives against asteroids, the same
"experimental" approach that Teller advocated. For many
years the defense strategists and weapons builders from the U.S.
and Russia had worked together, first as cold-war rivals and more
recently in a spirit of international cooperation. Within Russia
the astronomers and the weapons scientists initially pursued
their interests independently (as they had in the United States),
but by 1994 they had begun to talk to each other, largely at the
initiative of nuclear physicist Vadim Simonenko.
Simonenko worked at the Institute of Technical Physics of the
Russian Federal Nuclear Center -- the Russian equivalent of
Livermore National Laboratory in the United States. For decades
the existence of this Federal Nuclear Center had been a military
secret, and the city in the southern Urals where it was located
did not even have a name -- just a postal code,
Chelyabinsk-70. It was a milestone in the emergence of this
secret city when Simonenko obtained permission to host an
international conference on asteroid defense there. The
conference was named "Space Protection of the Earth
1994", and both Teller and Wood accepted invitations to
attend, as did five other Americans, myself included.
The American party arrived at the Ekaterinburg Airport in the
small hours of September 25, having crossed 12 time zones in the
flight from California. Soon we were in a bus, following the
blinking blue light of a police escort through endless miles of
white birch trees to our destination: a closed city that appears
on no map of Russia. Only during the preceding year had it
obtained a name: Snezhinsk, which means "snowy" in
Russian. When we finally arrived, we entered Snezhinsk through
barbed wire fences guarded by soldiers with automatic weapons and
unsheathed bayonets. Here, isolated from the rest of the world,
lived the 15,000 workers at the nuclear institute and their
families. A huge bronze statue of Lenin still dominated the
central square, and several of us spoke with students in the
schools who had never before seen an American. These talented
people, who have spent two generations building nuclear bombs in
this closed society, were looking for alternatives. Shooting down
asteroids seemed like a possibility.
The Space Protection meeting was attended by about 150 Russians,
the majority of whom had not previously worked with foreigners.
For a week we met to discuss asteroids, with particular emphasis
on schemes for interception and nuclear deflection or destruction
of NEOs. Teller, as "father of the H-bomb", was
idolized by the Russian nuclear community, and he and Wood had
come to Russia with a message that this audience was happy to
hear. The Teller-Wood thesis was simple: we must build an
international defense system against cosmic impacts, and an
urgent part of that effort is to conduct nuclear tests to learn
how to deflect or destroy NEOs. Teller emphasized that such an
experimental program was the only way to obtain the required
data, and that nuking asteroids represented the most
cost-effective kind of experimentation. In case anyone missed the
message, Wood also told the audience that there were no
international prohibitions against nuclear explosions in space,
since the existing treaties dealt only with "weapons of mass
destruction", not peaceful uses of nuclear explosives
intended to develop a capability to protect the Earth. Teller
added that "only fear-mongers oppose the peaceful use of
nuclear explosives."
One of the interesting experiences of this week was a visit to
the nuclear museum at Snezhinsk, which included several exhibits
dealing with peaceful applications of nuclear explosives. The
centerpiece was the mock-up of a 100-megaton bomb, the largest
ever built and tested. Teller posed next to this bomb, and
pictures of him with this monster have been widely published,
including in Teller's autobiography.
=============================
TELLER'S MEMOIRS
Teller published his autobiography in 2001 (Edward Teller,
Memoirs: A twentieth century journey in science and politics,
Peseus Publishing). The last two pages of this 600-page book deal
with the impact hazard. Teller does not mention the meetings in
Los Alamos or Tucson or Erice, but begins by describing his 1994
visit to Russia, concluding that "everyone I met [at
Chelybinsk-70] was extremely kind, and I thoroughly enjoyed my
two-week stayS.
"The scientists attending the conference at Chelyabinsk
agreed that the more frequent medium-sized impacts [like
Tunguska] and the infrequent large impacts are both important.
When the probability-weighted damage of all these impacts is
considered, meteorite strikes appear to be about as damaging as
earthquakes or hurricanes. The practical point is to prevent the
great damage caused by large or massive meteoritesS..
"It would be valuable to have a system that could intercept
a sizable meteor on collision course with the earth. An
explosive, detonated an appropriate distance below the meteor's
surface, could expel material from the meteor and either alter
its course or break it up. In most cases, conventional explosives
would provide a sufficient blast. The only practical way to
assure that we could deflect a meteor is to conduct experiments
on them by interacting with meteors that pass between the earth
and the moon. The experiments should be carried out, of course,
when the meteors are beyond their closest approach to
earthS"
Teller's book concludes with the words: "I think that
learning cooperatively with other nations how to prevent damage
from meteor impact -- becoming knowledgeable enough to prevent a
globally catastrophic natural disaster -- would be a worthwhile
way to begin the new millennium."
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
NEO News is an informal compilation of news and opinion dealing
with Near Earth Objects (NEOs) and their impacts. These opinions
are the responsibility of the individual authors and do not
represent the positions of NASA, the International Astronomical
Union, or any other organization. To subscribe (or unsubscribe)
contact dmorrison@arc.nasa.gov.
For additional information, please see the website http://impact.arc.nasa.gov.
If anyone wishes to copy or redistribute original material from
these notes, fully or in part, please include this disclaimer.
========== LETTERS ========
(7) CHICXULUB IMPACT CRATER AND THE K/T MASS EXTINCTION,
REVISITED
Jan Smit <smit@geo.vu.nl>
"Chicxulub crater not related to the K/T
mass-extinction??"
(CCNet, 26 September 2003; http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc092603.html)
That would be a major claim indeed, if it were true. Familiar
terms
are used like "mounting evidence", "growing number
of scientists",
where the "evidence" and "scientists" are
overwhelmingly from her
own (Gerta Kellers) research group itself.
However, the "evidence" that purports to show that the
Chicxulub crater is 300.000 years older than the K/T boundary, is
exclusively based on resedimented coarse grained deposits in the
vicinity of the crater, i.e. the Gulf of Mexico, that have been
influenced by tsunami waves, mass-wasting and slumping and
earthquakes triggered by the impact itself. Therefore, in all
these
places there is a sedimentological explanation for the doubling,
tripling of layers with ejecta and iridium, creating the illusion
of
multiple impacts. The mechanisms mentioned above make the
deposits
very complicated indeed, including the sediments inside the
crater.
Among the cited evidence for a Chicxulub crater about 300kyr
older
than the KT boundary, is the occurrence of a so-called normal
sedimentary layer with Cretaceous foraminifers above the ejecta
of
the Chicxulub crater. If that were correct, there would be indeed
strong evidence that the crater is older than K/T. However, these
"normal" sediments contain either already Tertiary
fossils, and are
therefore Tertiary in age, or are not "normal"
sediments but part of
the coarse grained deposits related to the impact itself, because
they display grainsize grading.
A new element in the discussion are the results of the new
Yaxcopoil-1 drilling inside the Chicxulub crater, where Gerta
Keller
claims that also there is evidence that the Cretaceous period
persisted for 300kyr after the Chicxulub impact.
In this core the Chicxulub ejecta occur from 894-794.70m. The
ejecta
are overlain by a succession of 51cm of crossbedded dolomitic
sands
(794.70-794.19m), an 8cm thick hardground (794.19-794.12m), 2cm
of
clay (794.12-794.10m), and finally, the post impact infill of
fine-grained sediments, that contain undisputed Tertiary
foraminifers
(794.10-404m).
The cited evidence comes from the core segment just above the
ejecta, that consists of cross-bedded and parallel-bedded sands
(794.70-794.19m). Samples of the same interval were split in two.
One
part was distributed to Gerta Keller, and the other part to Jose
Arz
and colleages from Zaragoza, Spain. I myself obtained samples
adjacent to these samples that were analysed in Amsterdam.
Neither
the Zaragoza group, experienced micropaleontologists, nor I were
able
to find any determinable foraminiferal remains in any of these
samples. Instead, we found in thin sections exclusively
rhomb-like
idiomorphic dolomite overgrowths of the sand grains. The rhombs
resemble in size and thickness somewhat the testwalls of
foraminifers. The "Bombshell results" presented by
Gerta Keller at
the EGS-AGU meeting in Nice are based on such dolomite
overgrowths.
The results of the three groups working on these samples will be
published in the MAPS special volume on the Yaxcopoil-1 drilling.
Discussions to be continued.
But even if the foraminiferal fossils were missed by the
Zaragoza and Amsterdam groups, they would not permit any
conclusion
about the age of the crater. Cross- and parallel beds tell any
sedimentologist that such sediments are deposited by currents or
waves, and that all grains in those beds, including foraminiferal
shells, are transported from another source. The grains could be
washed in from inside the crater, from the rim or the direct
surroundings of the crater, and may therefore be much older or
younger than the crater itself. In other words, it is impossible
to
tell whether the foraminifera in that core-segments are
contemporaneous, older or considerably younger than the crater.
What
we do know, however, is that the base of the Tertiary, including
the
iridium rich clay, is missing in the drill core, because the part
of
the magnetochron that represents this period, Chron 29R, is only
3-11cm thick in the Tertiary, where the same interval is 1.5m
thick
in the Gubbio (Italy) and over 5.1m in the Caravaca (Spain)
sections.
Where we should be looking for multiple impacts at or near
the K/T boundary, is far away from the impact and the resulting
energetic events that influence the sedimentary records there. It
is
therefore laudable that Gerta Keller plans to test the record of
the
latest Cretaceous for evidence of volcanism, impacts and
change of
biota in the Indian Ocean. However, if we look critically
at the
most complete records known today (i.e. El Kef in Tunisia, Agost,
Zumaya and Caravaca in Spain, and the Apennine sections in
Italy),
there is not the slightest undisputed evidence for multiple
impacts.
So what and where is the best evidence that ties the
Chicxulub impact to the K/T boundary extinctions? In my opinion
those
are the impact layers laid down in quiet coalswamps in the US and
Canadian western interior. Those layers are found over a wide
area
ranging from Alberta; Hell Creek, Montana; Dogie Creek, Wyoming;
and
Raton Basin, Colorado-New Mexico. Glenn Izett, Bruce Bohor and
colleagues have shown that in those areas there is a single
claylayer, composed of two parts. The lower sublayer is filled
with
spherules that are identical to the glassy spherules from around
the
Gulf of Mexico. Ar/Ar age dating, chemical and isotopic
composition
of the glass show that, barring a miracle, those spherules are
derived from the Chicxulub impact. The upper sublayer is
invariably
enriched in iridium (according to Gerta Keller the fingerprint of
the
"unknown" K/T boundary impact) and shocked minerals.
Additionally,
the upper sublayer contains shocked zircon crystals that tie the
sublayer to the Chicxulub target (panafrican) rocks. If Gerta
Keller
would be correct, than the lower and upper sublayers would be
separated in time by about 300kyr. In reality, the two sublayers
are
not even separated by a single season of falling leaves, in all
the
localities mentioned above, and both comtain evidence linking
them to
Chicxulub.
I therefore still think the evidence overwhelmingly shows that
the
K/T boundary impact and the Chicxulub impact are one and the
same.
Dr. J. Smit
Department of Sedimentology
Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences
Vrije Universiteit
de Boelelaan 1085
1081HV Amsterdam
the Netherlands
tel: +3120-4447384
fax: +3120-6462457
e-mail: smit@geo.vu.nl
http://www.geo.vu.nl/~smit
============
(8) AN IMPACT ROLE IN THE FOUNDATION OF EPHESOS?
Daniel Fischer <dfischer@astro.uni-bonn.de>
Dear Benny,
a recent Austrian TV documentary on the excavation of the ancient
metropolis of Ephesos -
http://www.3sat.de/3sat.php?http://www.3sat.de/programm_titel.php3?url=http://pressetreff.3sat.de/pd/Sendung.asp?pa1nr='B97A4D6EF4040B60'
-
connected its origin to a 'natural disaster' in the form of a
cosmic impact: It claimed
that the original asylon, the sanctuary that later became the
site of the Artemision, one
of the Wonders of the ancient World, was located on the site of
the impact, the power and
consequences of which were not discussed. No evidence for an
impact was presented other
than that there was an important deity named Diopetes agalma
(sp.?) which means "the picture
that fell from the sky".
This was all news to me: when I visited both Ephesos and the
Artemision's (few) ruins just
a few weeks ago (they are now in Western Turkey, near Izmir), no
guide book and no
information sign made any reference to such an impact. What is
the mainstream thinking about
this in the archaeological community? The documentary was very
well done (with state-of-the-art
computer visualizations), and the Austrians played and play a key
role in excavating Ephesos,
so it seems unlikely that the author, A. Vendl, simply made it
up.
Insights and references would be most welcome!
Daniel Fischer
===========
(9) CORRECTION: EARLY TERRESTRIAL MARIA-LIKE IMPACT BASINS
Andrew Glikson <geospec@webone.com.au>
Dear Benny,
An error occurred in re-typing the title of my essay - the term
"MARINA" is
not correct, it should read "MARIA". I will appreciate
it could you please
post a correction note on the next CCNet to this effect.
Best
Andrew Glikson
8.10.03
=========
(10) AND FINALLY: THE REAL CAUSE BEHIND PRINCESS DIANA'S
DEATH....
E.L.G. Bowell <Edward.Bowell@lowell.edu>
A friend put me on to this one:
http://www.asteroids.com/holistic.htm
It's a real hoot (though my attention span is too short to read
much of it),
intimating that the death of Princess Diana was foreshadowed by
the
positioning of asteroid 78 Diana.
Cheers...Ted
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