PLEASE NOTE:
*
CCNet 105/2000 - 17 October 2000
--------------------------------
"Concerned that NASA may have
dropped the ball, a blue-ribbon scientific
panel here has recommended that
Britain take the lead in defending the
people of our planet from an
overhead threat of literally cosmic dimensions:
killer asteroids.
A recent report from the Task
Force on Potentially Hazardous
Near Earth Objects calls for
spending as much as $100 million on a defense
system against space objects, with
a blueprint similar to the military's missile
defense systems--an early
detection network coupled with some means to stop an
incoming threat."
-- The Washington
Post, 15 October 2000
(1) FINALLY, THE WASHINGTON POST RUNS WITH THE TASK FORCE REPORT
Michael Paine <mpaine@tpgi.com.au>
(2) BRITISH SEE EARTH BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE
The Washington Post, 15 October 2000
(3) RUINS MAY BE ANCIENT CITY SWALLOWED BY SEA
The New York Times, 17 October 2000
(4) MORE EVIDENCE THAT LITTLE ICE AGE WAS GLOBAL EVENT
The Globe and Mail, 14 October 2000
(5) ECONOMICS OF SPACE-BASED NEO TELESCOPES
Konrad Ebisch <kebisch@zycor.lgc.com>
(6) EFFECTS OF IMPACT TSUNAMIS
Jens Kieffer-Olsen <dstdba@post4.tele.dk>
(7) AND FINALLY: BRITAINS ARE MISERABLE - IT'S OFFICIAL (NOT!)
BBC Online News, 15 October 2000
=================
(1) FINALLY, THE WASHINGTON POST RUNS WITH THE TASK FORCE REPORT
From Michael Paine <mpaine@tpgi.com.au>
Dear Benny,
One month late, but The Washington Post has a story on the UK NEO
report:
http://washingtonpost.com:80/wp-dyn/articles/A13894-2000Oct15.html
Some of the reporting is a little odd but at least the White
House
should now know about the report.
regards
Michael Paine
===============
(2) BRITISH SEE EARTH BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE
From The Washington Post, 15 October 2000
http://washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A13894-2000Oct15.html
LONDON, 15 October; Concerned that NASA may have dropped the
ball, a
blue-ribbon scientific panel here has recommended that Britain
take the lead
in defending the people of our planet from an overhead threat of
literally
cosmic dimensions: killer asteroids.
A recent report from the Task Force on Potentially Hazardous Near
Earth
Objects calls for spending as much as $100 million on a defense
system
against space objects, with a blueprint similar to the military's
missile
defense systems--an early detection network coupled with some
means to stop
an incoming threat.
With thousands of objects flying near enough to our planet to be
considered
risky, panel members said the possibility of global destruction
posed even
by a relatively small asteroid should be enough to justify the
expenditure.
"I would think the prospect of imminent death would
concentrate the mind
remarkably," said Harry Atkinson, the task force chairman.
"This is not science fiction," said Britain's science
minister, Lord
Sainsbury, as he endorsed the report and promised swift
government action to
implement it. "The risk is extremely remote . . . but it is
real. We put a
lot of money into astronomy. It's sensible to put just a little
bit into
making certain we know if there is any danger of an object
hitting our very
fragile planet."
Asteroids and their smaller cousins, comets, are chunks of flying
debris
left over from the formation of the solar system about 4.5
billion years
ago. Some are huge; the potato-shaped asteroid Eros is bigger
than the whole
of the District. When they hit the Earth, the results can be
cataclysmic. A
single asteroid that hit what is now Mexico about 65 million
years ago wiped
out most animal life around the world and is believed to have
ended the age
of dinosaurs.
The British panel warned that "the Earth is hemmed in by a
sea of
asteroids." One problem is that astronomers don't know how
big that sea
might be. The report says there may be as many as 2,000
space objects crossing Earth's orbit that are bigger than 1
kilometer (about
half a mile) wide. Impact by a single object that size could kill
up to a
quarter of our planet's population, the panel warned.
But while the damage can be massive, the actual risk is minimal.
Asteroids
don't hit us all that often; "we are talking about once
every 100,000 years
for a very serious incident," Sainsbury said. Still, the
report concludes
that the potential harm is so great that preventive measures
should be
taken--particularly because mankind now has the technological
skill to
protect itself.
"Near Earth Objects"--the term "near" is a
relative one here, referring to
space debris within a third of the distance to the sun--pose a
threat to all
nations. Why, then, is it the British who are pushing the cause
of asteroid
defense? One reason is that the homeland of Isaac Newton has a
long
astronomical tradition. The other is that island nations face a
particular
risk; a large asteroid landing in the Atlantic could launch a
tsunami that
would sink the British Isles (not to mention the East Coast of
the United
States) within minutes.
The British panel's warnings echo several studies issued by NASA
in recent
years about asteroid dangers. Under pressure from Congress, NASA
promised in
1995 to identify all potentially dangerous space objects by 2005.
NASA
currently spends about $2 million annually on that task, but has
fallen far
behind the original schedule. That's a key reason the British
have decided
to push ahead.
The task force report urges construction of new
telescopes--particularly in
the Southern Hemisphere, which has fewer astronomical
installations than the
northern. The panel recommended spending about $24 million
immediately on a
new 10-foot telescope somewhere south of the equator. The team
also
suggested launching "Spaceguard" satellites to watch
for incoming
destruction.
With improved vigilance, the study says, an asteroid racing
toward Earth
might be spotted a year, a decade, or even a century before
impact. Rather
than just sit around awaiting destruction, the team suggests that
humans
might be able to destroy or turn away the unwelcome visitor. The
report
doesn't provide specifics, but U.S. nuclear scientist Edward
Teller has
suggested using nuclear bombs in space to nudge an asteroid off a
collision
course with Earth.
"I think the British are certainly right that we should
track these objects
and see what's out there," says Lucy McFadden, a specialist
on near-Earth
objects at the University of Maryland. "This stuff is real.
But on the other
hand, if you work out the numbers, the probability of impact with
the Earth
is so small."
If a major new campaign is undertaken to identify more asteroids,
astronomers could face a problem coming up with names for all
their finds.
Under the nomenclature guidelines of the International
Astronomical Union,
comets tend to be named for the earthling who discovered them.
Asteroids can
be named after almost anybody, except that political, religious
and military
leaders are taboo.
Many asteroids take their names from mythology, such as
"Eros" and "Ceres."
Others are named for scientists; there's an asteroid called
"Einstein."
Fittingly, these giant rocks also can be named for rock giants.
One of the
"Near Earth Objects" potentially threatening life on
Earth is a large,
irregularly shaped asteroid called "Jerry Garcia."
Copyright 2000, The Washington Post
================
(3) RUINS MAY BE ANCIENT CITY SWALLOWED BY SEA
From The New York Times, 17 October 2000
http://www.nytimes.com/2000/10/17/science/17CITY.html
By JOHN NOBLE WILFORD
Join a Discussion on Archaeology
In a winter night in 373 B.C., the one-two punch of an earthquake
followed
by a surging tidal wave destroyed the grand old Greek city of
Helike, near
the Gulf of Corinth. The city was, coincidentally, a venerated
center for
worship of Poseidon, the god of earthquakes and the sea.
The land and the city ruins sank beneath the sea, and all the
people were
said to have perished. Ancient Greece had not known a natural
disaster as
devastating in more than 1,000 years, when an exploding volcano
destroyed
much of the island of Thera, modern Santorini. The Helike
catastrophe, some
scholars speculate, may have inspired Plato's story of Atlantis,
a land that
supposedly sank to the bottom of the sea.
For several centuries after the disaster, writers like Pliny,
Strabo and
Ovid reported that the ruins could still be seen on the sea
floor, just
offshore. Then all traces of Helike disappeared. Here was another
"lost"
city to challenge the sleuthing instincts of archaeologists.
In excavations this summer, Greek and American researchers
uncovered what
they think is the first evidence pointing to the location of
Helike
(pronounced ha-LEE-key). After 12 years of searching, mostly
offshore and
invariably in vain, they began digging on a coastal plain near
the town of
Aigion, 45 miles northwest of Corinth. Some of their first
trenches yielded
stones of a paved road and building walls, classical ceramics and
a bronze
coin, which was minted in the late 5th century B.C.
"It's just a glimpse," one of the researchers, Dr.
Steven Soter of the
American Museum of Natural History, said in an interview.
"But it's the
first strong evidence for Helike that is consistent with
descriptions in
ancient accounts."
Dr. Soter and Dr. Dora Katsonopoulou, an archaeologist and
president of the
Ancient Helike Society in Aigion, reported the discovery at a
recent
conference of archaeologists in Greece. Though Dr. Soter is a
planetary
scientist, his research on earthquakes drew him into the search
for Helike
in collaboration with Dr. Katsonopoulou.
Dr. Soter directed the use of remote-sensing technology like
magnetometry
and ground-penetrating radar in surveying buried terrain where
the city was
thought to be. These surveys, followed by the sinking of scores
of bore
holes, located ancient ceramic fragments and other evidence of
human
occupation over an area of about one square mile. Digging among
the orchards
and vineyards of modern villages, archaeologists reached layers
of sediment
10 feet deep bearing classical pottery along with seashells and
other marine
remains.
In their reports, the researchers said these findings suggested
that the
pavement and wall stones were from the time of Helike's
destruction and
supported stories that the city ruins were for a long time
submerged in the
sea or a lagoon. The ruins were buried by silt, which, combined
with a
general uplifting of the land, had left the once-submerged site
about half a
mile inland from the present shore. A house built on the shore
between the
Selinous and Kerynites Rivers in the 1890's is now about 1,000
feet from the
sea.
"It's a very important find in classical studies," said
Dr. Robert
Stieglitz, an archaeologist and classics professor at Rutgers
University at
Newark. "These are definitely signs of a settlement. Now
they need to expand
the excavations to look for the temple and theater and other
public
buildings that should be at the core of a city like Helike."
As a measure of his confidence that the site of Helike has been
found, Dr.
Stieglitz said he would join the expanded excavations next
summer.
Dr. Soter and Dr. Katsonopoulou said the discovery of paving
stones from a
buried road might be especially rewarding. So far, only a short
segment of
the road's cobbles and boundary boulders have been uncovered, but
enough to
tantalize archaeologists.
"We think the road may be the best thing we could
find," Dr. Soter said.
"This could lead us to the rest of the city. And it could
provide a
relatively undisturbed `time capsule' from the classical period
of Greece."
On the other hand, Dr. Soter acknowledged, the earthquake and
tsunami, a
towering sea wave, might have left few recognizable ruins.
Scientists
suspect that a strong earthquake set off a submarine landslide,
which in
turn produced the tsunami. Aftershocks of the quake could have
caused the
landscape to collapse, perhaps sinking below sea level. And a
tsunami,
perhaps more than 35 feet high, could have swept away most of the
remains.
But digging deeper and wider at the likely site of Helike will
probably be
irresistible to archaeologists seeking to learn more about public
and
private life during the golden age of Greece. At the time of
Helike's
destruction, Plato was teaching and Aristotle was a boy of 12.
Socrates and
Aristophanes had died at the beginning of the century.
Copyright 2000 The New York Times Company
===================
(4) MORE EVIDENCE THAT LITTLE ICE AGE WAS GLOBAL EVENT
From The Globe and Mail, 14 October 2000
http://www.globeandmail.com/gam/Science/20001014/UVIVAN3.html
Tropics once felt chill of Ice Age
RANDOLPH SCHMID
Associated Press
Saturday, October 14, 2000
WASHINGTON -- While Europeans were shivering through the Little
Ice Age,
natives of the Caribbean were also facing a cooler climate,
researchers
report.
Made famous by the winter-scene paintings of Pieter Brueghel, the
Little Ice
Age stretched from the 14th century to the 19th, cooling the
northern
hemisphere and bringing heavier than usual snow and ice.
The impact of this cooling on tropical areas, however, has been
less clear.
Now a team of scientists led by Amos Winter of the University of
Puerto Rico
at Mayaguez has found evidence that Caribbean temperatures were
two to three
degrees cooler during the Little Ice Age than they are currently.
"That is a significant temperature change, especially in
that part of the
world where natural variations are much less than they would be
in colder
climates," commented John Christy of the University of
Alabama at
Huntsville, one of the co-authors of the paper.
"We postulate there were more cold-air outbreaks that
reached this area in
the wintertime," he said. "We suspect it would have
been drier as well as
cooler."
Their findings are reported in the Oct. 15 issue of Geophysical
Research
Letters, published by the American Geophysical Union.
The researchers analyzed the various isotopes of oxygen found in
coral in
Puerto Rico.
Coral grows slowly over long periods of time and its shells
include oxygen
from the time they were created. The ratio of one oxygen isotope
to another
varies by temperature, allowing scientists to estimate the
temperature at
the time the shell was made.
It's important to understand the role of the tropics during the
Little Ice
Age, the researchers said, "because this region provides the
primary source
of heat and water vapour to the atmosphere."
Cooler temperatures mean less evaporation and thus less vapour in
the air
and fewer clouds.
Changes in climate worldwide over periods of years and centuries
are
affected by how much heat and moisture are produced in the
tropics. For
example, weather around the world has been disrupted over the
last few years
by El Nino, as the warming phenomenon of the tropical Pacific
Ocean is
known.
In their paper, the scientists analyzed Caribbean temperatures at
three
periods, 1700-1705, 1780-1785 and 1810-1815.
Copyright 2000, The Globe and Mail
===========================
* LETTERS TO THE MODERATOR*
===========================
(5) ECONOMICS OF SPACE-BASED NEO TELESCOPES
From Konrad Ebisch <kebisch@zycor.lgc.com>
Dear Benny:
Economics of space telescopes:
I noted Pete Worden's statement that space-based observatories
are not
expensive. But he did not emphasize one other point. There are
about
720 hours in a month in which to use a telescope in space. The
same
is true of a telescope on the ground. But the ground-based scope
will
lose about half of these due to daylight, and half the rest will
be
degraded due to moonlight, and some of the rest due to weather.
So,
even at the best of sites, the earthly telescope will deliver
about
80 percent less observing time than the one upstairs.
Historical note:
Recently I have read in your bulletin that the
"venerable" 36 inch
telescope at the U. of Arizona is being pressed into use to find
asteroids. I have also read that tree-rings are being used to
chronicle such events as the disaster of 536 AD.
The building of the 36 inch telescope, fifth largest in the
world,
was principly the work of A. E. Douglass.
The science of Dendrochronology was founded by A. E.
Douglass.
Reference: Tree Rings and Telescopes: The Scientific Career
of
A. E. Douglass (Tucson: University of Arizona Press, 1983).
Konrad Ebisch
=================
(6) EFFECTS OF IMPACT TSUNAMIS
From Jens Kieffer-Olsen <dstdba@post4.tele.dk>
Dear Benny Peiser,
The advice from Charles Mader quoted by Michael Paine below seems
to me in contradiction with the common belief that the collective
impact
from a large fragmented asteroid is more harmful than a single
blow
involving the undivided body.
>(8) LANDSLIDE TSUNAMI - MORE DISASTER HYPE IN UK MEDIA
>From Michael Paine <mpaine@tpgi.com.au>
[snip]
>However, tsunami expert Charles Mader advises "Like
asteroids smaller
>than 1 km, the La Palama landslide generated wave would have
a short
>wavelength and a short period (less than 10 minutes) wave
that would
>rapidly decay to a deep water wave before it got to US
coasts.
If true indeed that objects smaller than 1km generate only
limited damage
when smashing into a wide ocean, that certainly speaks in favour
of using
nuclear force to break large impactors into smaller pieces (in
lieu of more
refined methods aimed at deflection, of course).
--
Jens Kieffer-Olsen, M.Sc.(Elec.Eng.)
Slagelse, Denmark
==================
(7) AND FINALLY: BRITAINS ARE MISERABLE - IT'S OFFICIAL (NOT!)
From the BBC Online News, 15 October 2000
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/uk/newsid_974000/974437.stm
One in 10 would rather be dead, the survey says
Britons are more miserable and down-trodden than anyone
previously dared
believe, a survey has said.
A large proportion are just plain exhausted by life
A quarter of the population fear a "hopeless future",
one in three feels
"downright miserable", and one in 10 thinks he or she
would be better off
dead.
The online survey by internet site NetDoctor.co.uk involved 400
men and
women answering 80 questions to assess their emotional health.
A quarter said life was unfair, and more than one in 10 felt they
had been
dealt a miserable lot which they were powerless to alter.
'One in four unhappy in job'
In the questions on work, one in four were unhappy in the job,
while one in
three felt exhausted, unappreciated or underpaid.
In relationships, a quarter were unsatisfied with their sex
lives. One in
six people in relationships felt unhappy sometimes or often.
Some 10% of men reported being emotionally, verbally or
physically abused by
their partners - but for women the figure was only 6%.
Psychotherapist and agony aunt Christine Webber, who carried out
the survey,
said: "It seems people's lives do not live up to their
extremely high
expectations and it is particularly worrying to see so many
people dwelling
on morbid thoughts, with a large proportion just plain exhausted
by life."
Copyright 2000, BBC
-----------
AND COMMENT BY THE JUNKMAN
From http://www.junkscience.com/
400 self-selected respondents to an online survey and Britain is
diagnosed
miserable? Hmm... what could be so depressing - the environment?
Hardly. The
Thames has been transformed from the fetid, lifeless sewer it had
been for
two centuries to a breeding haven for fish and wildlife over the
last thirty
years - as have the majority of their water courses. Over the
last 50 years
they have gone from killer fogs to more than acceptable city air
quality.
Wildlife species are generally recovering and some are being
reintroduced
after absences of centuries. Can't be the environment. Britain
has gone from
post-war austerity to an era of plenty over the past 50 years,
people have
sufficient disposable income and a wealth of toys and
entertainment
available, they can choose from a bewildering array of foods from
all parts
of the globe - enough to suit even the most jaded palate.
Transport has
improved to the point where Britains can slip over to Paris for
lunch if
they want to. The twentieth century has seen a shift from open
sewers and
wood and coal cooking and heating to flick-of-the-switch
convenience.
Healthy lifespans have increased literally by decades over the
same period
and infectious disease reduced to a fraction of the threat it
once posed.
There doesn't seem a lot here that should indicate cause for
misery. So, 400
sad sacks fill out an online questionnaire and "it's
official". Right...
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