PLEASE NOTE:
*
CCNet 107/2000 - 20 October 2000
--------------------------------
Please note that I will be in Germany for most of next week and
therefore
unable to post any CCNet issues. BJP
"Pluto Express -- unlike most space science missions -- will
suffer
an actual and serious scientific data loss if its arrival at
Pluto is
significantly delayed, since Pluto is currently moving away from
the Sun
on its elliptical orbit and its thin atmosphere (one of the main
subjects of the mission) will soon begin freezing out onto its
surface."
-- SpaceDaily, 19 October
2000
"Right now, everyone in the natural gas industry is crossing
their
fingers, hoping that global warming works and we have a warm
winter,"
Gathercole quipped. "If we have a cold winter, the prices
are really going
to go through the roof."
--Vancouver Sun, 19 October 2000
(1) LEONIDS 2000
Rob McNaught <rmn@aaocbn.aao.gov.au>
(2) THE EFFECTS ON THE EKB OF A LARGE DISTANT TENTH PLANET
EKOnews@boulder.swri.edu
(3) SWEEPING SECULAR RESONANCES IN THE KUIPER BELT
EKOnews@boulder.swri.edu
(4) A DETECTION METHOD FOR SMALL KUIPER BELT OBJECTS
EKOnews@boulder.swri.edu
(5) THE SPACEWATCH SURVEY FOR BRIGHT CENTAURS & TANSNEPTUNIAN
OBJECTS
EKOnews@boulder.swri.edu
(6) THERMAL EVOLUTION OF THE CENTAUR OBJECT 5145 PHOLUS
EKOnews@boulder.swri.edu
(7) POPULATION & WEALTH, RATHER THAN CLIMATE, DRIVE FLOOD
DAMAGE COSTS
Anatta <anatta@UCAR.EDU>
(8) FROM GLOBAL WARMING HYSTERIA TO ENVIRONMENTAL PRAGMATISM
National Post, 19 October 2000
(9) NASA TAKES 200 YEAR RAIN CHECK ON PLUTO
SpaceDaily, 19 October 2000
(10) LATE EOCENE EXTINCTION
Duncan Steel <D.I.Steel@salford.ac.uk>
===============
(1) LEONIDS 2000
From Rob McNaught <rmn@aaocbn.aao.gov.au>
Dear all,
David Asher and I have written a piece for the next issue of WGN
that
summarizes our expectations for 2000. We have discussed/critiqued
some
other approaches to ZHR predictions and made clear the
limitations of
our method. This note is being sent now to meteorobs for two
reasons.
Firstly Sky and Telescope 2000 Nov., p 111 makes two statements
about
our work that are erroneous, and I want to correct these before
anyone
gives up on the 2000 Leonids. The second is that there are two
wonderful coincidences in this year's Leonids that will allow the
derivation of valuable data about dust trail structure from
visual
observations. WE NEED YOUR OBSERVATIONS! (well, via the
IMO!)
"... David Asher and Robert McNaught, foresee just a
'normal' display of
up to 100 meteors per hour ..." S&T 2000 Nov. p 111
Whilst our nominal predictions is of ~100, we do not discount,
and never
have discounted, the possibility of storm activity. Our
analysis relies
heavily on historical ZHR measures *for dust trail encounters*,
and none
exist for the geometry being encountered in 2000 November (4 and
8-rev
trails). We suspect activity will be "low", but
could still be the best
meteor shower many observers will have seen.
"This year will truly put the Asher-McNaught meteor-trail
theory to the
test ..." S&T 2000 Nov. p 111
From the comments above, it is clear that we make no strong
prediction
so unless substantial activity occurs well away from a dust trail
encounter, there will be no test of our theory this year.
Only Ferrin,
amongst those who have made predictions, has done so without
consideration
of the existence of dust trails.
I've seen various values for our ZHR predictions floating
about. Our
latest predictions are those that appeared in Sky and Telescope
2000 June,
p 32. The "?" appearing after the predicted ZHRs
of 100 for this year are
there for a very good reason, as stated above. Hopefully
we'll have another
look at representing the lower activity extremes of dust trails
in the next
couple of weeks, but with such limited data available for dust
trail
encounters, such extrapolations will always be unreliable.
However,
this year will provide much needed data in this regard, so even
if
predictions are questionable, the observed ZHRs from dust trail
encounters this year *will be extremely valuable*.
The following dust trail encounters are within 0.0050 AU of the
Earth
distance ZHR
2000 Nov. 17 07:53 UT 2-rev -0.0012
AU ?
08:22 1-rev
+0.0031 0
18
03:44 8-rev
+0.0008 100?
05:51 6-rev
+0.0030 0
06:44 5-rev
+0.0028 0
07:51 4-rev
+0.0008 100?
For miss distances of between 0.0000 AU to -0.0007 AU, the time
of
prediction appears to be accurate to around 5 minutes. This
indicates that
the dust trails are basically flat sheets, and this is in fact
the first
observational evidence to that effect (see R.H. McNaught, D.J.
Asher,
Meteorit. Planet. Sci. 34, 1999, pp. 975-978). The timing
for more distant
trails may be less precise, but as we argued in the above paper,
there is
no observational evidence for distant dust trail signatures in
the 1965 or
1998 observations (nor does the IMO analysis indicate this for
1999).
We do not expect any young dust trail encounters to give a broad
maximum
(FWHM >~1 hour), but this year will be a good opportunity to
gather
suitable data.
In the above table, only the miss distances are given for several
dust
trail encounters. Other relevant parameters are the minimum
ejection
velocities (represented by da0 in our original paper) and the
dilution
of the trail density with age (fM in our original paper).
We feel confident
that the 1, 5 and 6-rev trails will produce activity lower than
the
likely background activity, but 3 trails are worthy of special
effort.
Several authors have previously published predictions of
detectable
activity from the 2-rev trail in 2000. We certainly
consider this as a
possibility, although believe such activity will be much lower
than the
4 and 8-rev trails. If the 2-rev trail has significant
activity in
relation to these other two trails, this will indicate a
substantial
asymmetry in the dust trail profile in the sunward/anti-sunward
direction
and/or a notable aging effect additional to trail stretching (the
only
aging factor we believe is important). [In the upcoming
note in WGN, David
and I comment on four errors in the analysis of Jenniskens et al
from the
April-June 2000 WGN, as mentioned in the June 2000 S&T p. 32,
which had
suggested there was an error in our assumed position for the core
of the
dust trails.]
The two coincidences in this year's trail encounters are
1) the 4-rev and 8-rev trails are encountered at the same
geometry of
+0.0008 AU. This would mean that differences in the
observed ZHR are
caused by aging factors alone. Or at least they will be if
the disruption
of the 8-rev trail due to perturbations is not major!
[Magnitude index
is included in our predictions in a roundabout way.]
Analysis of this
may be difficult, but the European longitude observations of the
8-rev
trail and the 4-rev from the Americas four hours later will prove
interesting.
2) the 2-rev trail and the 4-rev trail encounters occur exactly 1
day
apart (well, within 2 minutes sidereal time!). This means
that observers
using the same location, observing in the same direction and,
hopefully,
in the same conditions (Moon will make a minor difference) will
get
directly comparable data on these two trails. Both the
relative intensity
and the magnitude index will be important results.
So my advice is to get out and observe, not that readers of
meteorobs need
any such encouragement! Also, if you are not at European or
American
longitudes your observations are just as valuable. Any outburst
must be
related to the background activity and who knows, something
unusual
might happen. Don't forget the occasional Leonid (or Taurid!)
fireball
and those wonderful long duration trains. Perhaps 2000
won't amount to
much, but if such is the case, you should feel well satisfied
that your
observations will go towards refining the various theories of the
structure of the Leonids.
Good luck!
Cheers, Rob
Robert H. McNaught
rmn@aaocbn.aao.gov.au
==============
(2) THE EFFECTS ON THE EKB OF A LARGE DISTANT TENTH PLANET
From EKOnews@boulder.swri.edu
The Effect on the Edgeworth-Kuiper Belt of a Large Distant Tenth
Planet
S. Collander-Brown1, M. Maran2, and I.P. Williams2
1 Department of Pure and Applied Physics, Queen's University,
Belfast BT7
1NN, UK
2 Astronomy Unit, Queen Mary and Westfield College, Mile End
Road, London E1
4NS, UK
We investigate the orbital evolution of both real and
hypothetical
Edgeworth-Kuiper Objects in order to determine whether any
conclusions can
be drawn regarding the existence, or otherwise, of the tenth
planet
postulated by Murray (1999). We find no qualitative difference in
the
orbital evolution, and so conclude that the hypothetical planet
has been
placed on an orbit at such a large heliocentric distance that no
evidence
for the existence, or non-existence, can be found from a study of
the known
Edgeworth-Kuiper Objects.
Published in: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society,
318, 101
For preprints, contact s.c.brown@qub.ac.uk
or on the web at
http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/Journals/toc.asp?IssueID=3649
=============
(3) SWEEPING SECULAR RESONANCES IN THE KUIPER BELT
From EKOnews@boulder.swri.edu
Sweeping Secular Resonances in the Kuiper Belt Caused by
Depletion of the
Solar Nebula
Makiko Nagasawa1 and Shigeru Ida1
1Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Tokyo Institute of
Technology,
Meguro-ku Tokyo 152-8551, Japan
We have investigated excitations of orbital eccentricities and
inclinations
of Kuiper Belt objects (KBOs) caused by the sweeping secular
resonances
during the primitive solar nebula depletion. Since nebula
gravitational
potential rotates the longitudes of perihelia and the ascending
node, the
nebula depletion leads to migration of secular resonances. In the
outer
(classical) Kuiper belt (the region beyond 42 AU), inclinations
and
eccentricities are respectively distributed up to 0.6 (radian)
and 0.2, and
their root mean squares are about 0.2 (radian) and 0.1. These
large values
are not explained by present planetary perturbations alone. We
have
investigated the sweeping secular resonances in the Kuiper belt
with both
direct orbital integration and analytical method and found that
the sweeping
secular resonances can account for the eccentricity and
inclination in the
outer belt. Inclinations of objects in the outer belt are excited
to the
observational level if the residual nebula with about 0.1% of the
density in
the minimum mass nebula model is depleted in a timescale of
107-108 years.
For inclination excitation, Jovian perturbations and nebula
potential is the
most important and Neptunian perturbations do not play an
important role
during the residual nebula depletion, although Neptune with more
than 1/5 of
present mass is needed for enough eccentricity excitation. If
further
observation of the KBOs at semimajor axis 50AU confirms our
model, it would
give important clues about Neptune formation and the depletion of
solar
nebula.
To appear in: The Astronomical Journal
For preprints, contact nagasawa@geo.titech.ac.jp
or on the web at
http://www.geo.titech.ac.jp/nakazawalab/nagasawa/mypaper/nandi2000.html
=================
(4) A DETECTION METHOD FOR SMALL KUIPER BELT OBJECTS
From EKOnews@boulder.swri.edu
A Detection Method for Small Kuiper Belt Objects:
The Search for Stellar Occultations
F. Roques1 and M. Moncuquet1
1 Département de recherche spatiale (DESPA), Observatoire de
Paris, 92195
Meudon, France
We explore the possibility of detecting small Kuiper Belt Objects
(KBO) by
serendipitous observation of stellar occultations: We show that
such
unpredictable occultations may allow us to detect a population of
very small
objects (typically of 100 m radius at 40 AU), invisible by any
other
observational method, as long as (i) the assumed population fills
up a
sufficient area on the sky plane, (ii) the instrumental
sensitivity and
acquisition frequency are high enough and (iii) the observed star
has a
small angular radius. This result is basically due to the
diffractive
broadening of the geometric shadow of small (assumed numerous)
occulting
objects. This diffractive broadening is more pronounced for
smaller stellar
disks and better photometric precision. Assuming there exist
about 1011
objects of radius km, located between 30 and 50 AU near the
Ecliptic, and
that the differential size distribution varies as with the
index q =
4extending down to decameter-sized objects, we expect a number of
valid
occultations (i.e., a event) between a few to several tens
per night, if we
may obtain an r.m.s. signal fluctuation and observe a star
in the ecliptic
with an angular radius 0.01 mas. Since this occultation
rate is very
sensitive to the index slope q and plummets when , a KBO
occultation
observation campaign could provide a decisive constraint on the
actual slope
of the KBO size distribution for sub-kilometer-sized objects.
Blue O class
stars are the best candidates for detecting KBOs since they have
the
smallest angular radius for a given visual magnitude. The
occultation events
are typically very brief ( 1 s) and they are shorter but
more numerous when
observed in the antisolar direction, so rapid photometry(>1
Hz) is required
and high speed photometry( Hz) is preferred. The French
space mission Corot
will provide an excellent opportunity to observe occultations by
KBOs using
high precision photometry.
Published in: Icarus, 147, 530 (2000 October)
For preprints, contact roques@obspm.fr
or on the web at http://despa.obspm.fr/~roques/odksweb.html
===============
(5) THE SPACEWATCH SURVEY FOR BRIGHT CENTAURS & TANSNEPTUNIAN
OBJECTS
From EKOnews@boulder.swri.edu
The Spacewatch Wide Area Survey for Bright Centaurs and
Transneptunian
Objects
Jeffrey A. Larsen1, Arianna E. Gleason1, Nichole M. Danzl1,
Anne S. Descour1 , Robert S. McMillan1, Tom Gehrels1,
Robert Jedicke1, Joseph L. Montani1, and James V. Scotti1
1 Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, University of Arizona, Tucson,
AZ 85712,
USA
We have conducted a large-area search for the brightest members
of the
Transneptunian and Centaur/Scattered-Disk asteroid populations by
reprocessing archival scans from the Spacewatch 0.9 meter
telescope at Kitt
Peak. Our survey encompasses 331 scans taken from September of
1995 to
September of 1999 and has a raw sky coverage of 1483.8 square
degrees. We
discovered five Transneptunians and five Centaur/Scattered Disk
objects
using an automated motion detection code. In addition, we
serendipitously
found four Transneptunians and two Centaur/Scattered-Disk objects
that had
been previously discovered. This survey is unique in that it
involves a
method which has a reasonable chance to re-acquire its lost
objects.
In this paper we develop techniques to aid our understanding of
our software
efficiency and survey procedures. We use this understanding to
``convolve"
our raw sky coverage with our measured detection efficiency and a
model of
our scan coverage to estimate what fraction of survey areas can
be
considered ``new". Our large sky coverage extends the
cumulative luminosity
function of the Transneptunians into a region previously
constrained only by
upper limits and allows a power law fit to be attempted to the
Centaur
cumulative luminosity function. In objects per square degree
brighter than
R=21.5, we find cumulative surface densities of Centaurs to be ,
of
Transneptunians to be and Scattered Disk Objects to be . We
extrapolate
these values to estimate the number of each class in the Ecliptic
brighter
than R=21.5: 100 Centaurs, 400 Transneptunians, and 70 Scattered
Disk
Objects.
Orbit analysis by the Minor Planet Center suggests that three of
our five
Transneptunians are resonators: 1998 VG44 is in the 3:2, 1995
SM55appears to
be in the 5:3, and 1998 SN165 appears to be in the 7:5 resonance.
To appear in: The Astronomical Journal
For preprints, contact jlarsen@lpl.arizona.edu
============
(6) THERMAL EVOLUTION OF THE CENTAUR OBJECT 5145 PHOLUS
From EKOnews@boulder.swri.edu
Thermal Evolution of the Centaur Object 5145 Pholus
M.C. De Sanctis1, M.T. Capria1, A. Coradini1, and R. Orosei1
1 Istituto di Astrofisica Spaziale CNR, Area di Ricerca di Roma
Tor Vergata,
via del Fosso del Cavaliere, 100, 00133 Roma, Italia
We present the results obtained by the simulations of different
thermal
models of 5145 Pholus, one of the known Centaurs. Pholus orbit is
highly
eccentric, similar to that of comets but its dimension is more
similar to
larger asteroids. Pholus cannot be clearly numbered into either
class. The
most likely source of Centaurs is the Edgeworth-Kuiper Belt:
dynamical
studies and physical properties suggest that Pholus recently
entered in the
planetary zone. Here we assume that the nature of Pholus is that
of a
cometary body made by different ices and dust. We have computed
the thermal
evolution of this object under different conditions: as a ``new''
object,
namely an undifferentiated body, and an ``old'' one,
differentiated and aged
in the Kuiper Belt. We have tried to see also the effects induced
by the
presence of an organic dust on the overall evolution. Both the
``new'' and
the ``old'' object show low, but different, levels of gas
activity.
Published in: Astronomical Journal, 120, 1571 (2000 September)
For preprints, contact M.C. De Sanctis at cristina@ias.rm.cnr.it
or on the web at
http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/AJ/journal/issues/v120n3/200048/200048.html
=============
(7) POPULATION & WEALTH, RATHER THAN CLIMATE, DRIVE FLOOD
DAMAGE COSTS
From Anatta <anatta@UCAR.EDU>
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: October 19, 2000
Population and Wealth, More than Climate, Drive Soaring Costs of
U.S. Flood
Damage
Contact:
Anatta
Telephone: 303-497-8604
Fax: 303-497-8610
E-mail: anatta@ucar.edu
BOULDER-Societal changes, much more than increased precipitation,
spurred a steep rise in flood-damage costs in the United States
over
much of the past century, according to a new study published
October
15 in the Journal of Climate. U.S. annual flood losses, adjusted
for
inflation, rose from $1 billion in the 1940s to $5 billion in the
1990s.
"Climate plays an important but by no means determining role
in the
growth of damaging floods in the United States in recent
decades,"
write the authors, Roger Pielke Jr. and Mary Downton, both of the
National Center for Atmospheric Research. NCAR's primary sponsor
is
the National Science Foundation.
Pielke and Downton examined ten different measures of
precipitation.
They found a strong relationship between flood damage and the
number
of two-day heavy rainfall events and wet days. They also found a
somewhat weaker relationship between flood damage and two-inch
rainfall events in most regions. However, these relationships
could
not explain the dramatic growth in flood losses, according to the
authors.
In a series of recent articles, including this one in the Journal
of
Climate, Pielke, Downton, and colleagues looked at the role of
increasing precipitation, population, and national wealth. They
found
that population growth alone accounts for 43% of the rise in
flood
damages from 1932 to 1997, with a much smaller effect from
increased
precipitation. "Most of the other 57% increase is due to
burgeoning
national wealth," says Pielke. Downton's work suggests that
more
detailed disaster reporting also contributes to the trend.
Climate scientists have observed a rise in precipitation in some
areas of the United States and elsewhere over the past century.
The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has written that
a
warmer climate could lead to more heavy-rain events. The Pielke-
Downton paper found that flooding increases with precipitation,
depending greatly on the time and location of the rain or
snowfall.
However, "even without an increase in precipitation,"
they write,
"total flood damage will continue to rise with the nation's
growing
population and wealth unless actions are taken to reduce
vulnerability."
Pielke, a political scientist, has often stated that his work
"is
consistent with the conclusions of the IPCC," whose
consensus view is
that the earth's climate is changing at least partly because of
human
activity. "But," he argues, "debate over the
science of global
warming need not stand in the way of effective actions to better
address climate impacts."
"We know enough to act now," said Pielke in a recent
presentation at
NCAR. "We can manage spiraling flood costs without waiting
for
precise answers from climate change research. In this sense the
debate over global warming misses the mark." Disaster
mitigation
policies regarding floodplain management are already available
and
can curtail the rising costs, he said.
Globally, between 1970 and 1995 floods killed more than 318,000
people and left more than 81 million homeless. During 1991-95
flood
related damage totaled more than $200 billion worldwide,
representing
close to 40% of all economic damage attributed to natural
disasters
in that period.
NCAR is managed by the University Corporation for Atmospheric
Research, a consortium of more than 60 universities offering
Ph.D.s
in atmospheric and related sciences.
-The End-
Visuals: Images are available at ftp://ftp.ucar.edu/communications.
Filename(s): flood1.tif, flood2.tif, flood3.tif
Caption: Severe, widespread flooding in the Midwest during the
summer of
1993 resulted in $21 billion in damages. (Photo courtesy of
the
National Center for Atmospheric Research/UCAR/NSF.)
UCAR and NCAR news:
http://www.ucar.edu/communications/newsreleases/2000
============
(8) FROM GLOBAL WARMING HYSTERIA TO ENVIRONMENTAL PRAGMATISM
From National Post, 19 October 2000
http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/fpcomment/story.html?f=/stories/20001019/433001.html
Foggy logic threatens Hansen's Kyoto alternative
David E. Wojick
National Post
Climate change guru Jim Hansen's recently announced plan of
action -- an
alternative to the Kyoto Protocol -- took a major step forward
this week
with the first meeting of climate researchers and U.S. government
officials
to openly discuss Mr. Hansen's strategy. Held in Washington,
D.C., at the
Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, the
meeting included
a number of prominent planners from the U.S. Department of Energy
and the
Environmental Protection Agency, as well as Mr. Hansen himself.
Mr. Hansen, one of the world's leading climate modellers, is
widely regarded
as a founding father of the present-day climate concern. With his
proposed
plan, he now offers what he modestly calls a "mid-course
correction," based
on the theory that pollution may contribute almost as much to
global warming
as does carbon dioxide.
With the Kyoto Protocol negotiations coming to something of a
head next
month in The Hague, Mr. Hansen's alternative scenario proposal
has been
contentious, to say the least. In fact, the environmental
community has gone
ballistic over it. In his opening remarks, Mr. Hansen said he had
been so
misquoted and maligned that he would soon publish an open letter
to his many
critics, something a scientist does not often do.
However, analysts like myself who regard the Kyoto scheme as
unworkable and
unwise, and who predict the Kyoto negotiations will bog down,
have welcomed
the Hansen Climate Plan as the ultimate "no regrets"
strategy. If you feel
you have to spend billions of dollars to save the planet (I
don't), you
might as well clean up the filthy cities of the world in the
process.
Basically, the Hansen Climate Plan is a 50-year program calling
for three
things. First, shift the focus of climate control away from
drastically
reducing carbon dioxide emissions in prosperous developed
countries, such as
Canada and the United States -- which many regard as impossible
-- to an
attack on global smog pollution, especially unburnt carbon from
inefficient
combustion in developing countries. Second, restrain growth of
carbon
dioxide emissions in developed countries to the extent possible
through
energy-efficiency measures. Third, develop alternatives to fossil
fuel
combustion, allowing carbon dioxide emissions to be phased out
globally
beginning in 2050.
Assuming one wants to throw a lot of money at this issue, which
the
governments of Canada and the United States seem determined to
do, the
Hansen Plan makes good sense. Renewable energy experts say 40
years is a
reasonable time frame for actually making solar and wind power
work cheaply,
and we might discover something else in the meantime. Of course,
we've
already found the solution -- nuclear power -- but that's too
dangerous to
be trusted to humans. Or is it? Prime Minister Jean Chrétien
wants to
include building nukes in the Kyoto package; it fits the Hansen
plan even
better.
Plus, there's no question that the developing countries can use
the money,
or that their cities are smoggy. Mind you, this should be new
money, because
there is no point in cleaning up the cities if the residents
starve in the
process.
The most objectionable feature of the Hansen Plan, as far as
hard-line
Greens are concerned, is that it may not require those wrenching
lifestyle
changes they long for us to endure. Which is precisely what makes
the plan
feasible.
Monday's meeting consisted of two panels -- one of scientists to
discuss the
soundness of Mr. Hansen's assumptions, and the other of U.S.
government
policy experts who very tentatively addressed the implications of
a revised
Hansen-like policy. Mr. Hansen was an active participant as well.
Though all
had good credentials, the logic of it all sometimes seemed foggy.
Pollution, especially urban smog, is a major source of climate
change, the
scientists generally agreed. In fact, said Peter Stone of the
Massachusetts
Institute of Technology, smog can change the climate in urban
areas, where
most people live, even if it does not contribute to global
change. Then
there's Tony Hansen -- he calls himself the "smog
Hansen" as opposed to Jim
"climate change" Hansen -- who emphasized that domestic
heating and cooking
in developing countries produces a tremendous amount of soot,
which
circulates globally. Billions of the world's people still heat
and cook with
raw coal, wood and dung. Efficient combustion, and central
electric power
stations, would eliminate most of this soot, he said. As a matter
of fact,
about one-third of the world's people do not have electricity,
except maybe
the batteries in the town radio. The West spent untold billions
on
uneconomic rural electrification programs; why shouldn't we
provide the cash
needed to electrify the Third World as well?
To give them credit, all the scientists, including Mr. Hansen,
stressed that
the sources, amounts and fate of unburnt carbon around the world
are poorly
understood. They called on governments to take immediate action
to begin
monitoring these emissions, and for much research to unravel
their effects.
In fact, they generally concluded we do not understand the role
of
atmospheric aerosols, even though they are as important as carbon
dioxide.
It could be argued, of course, that we cannot base a climate
control policy
on atmospheric processes we do not understand. But if that
argument worked,
we would not have the Kyoto negotiations in the first place.
At the policy level, the U.S. officials were understandably
cautious,
especially on the eve of national elections where environmental
issues are
at the fore. The caution could come at a cost: namely, the
promotion of
expensive government programs.
EPA's John Bachmann, Deputy Director of the office that sets
national air
quality standards, noted his agency had already proposed tough
new rules for
ozone and fine particulates, including unburnt carbon. But
because elemental
carbon makes up only about 4% of the ambient concentration of
fine particles
in the U.S., it is not regarded as a separate health hazard, as
it may be in
developing countries. Mr. Bachmann did say the EPA was
aggressively pursuing
international agreements on pollution control, such as the Long
Range
Transport of Pollution treaty, and that Mr. Hansen's climate
proposal would
certainly be added to that discussion. Marilyn Brown, Oak Ridge
National
Laboratory's energy efficiency guru, reported that Mr. Hansen's
proposal
would be incorporated into the U.S. Department of Energy's new
plan --
Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future. This plan calls for a
doubling of the
US$1-billion-per-year U.S. energy efficiency R&D budget.
In other words, the Hansen Plan may simply be added to the pot,
engendering
more federal power and more government spending without being
treated as the
policy alternative to Kyoto it truly is.
David E. Wojick is a journalist and policy analyst who resides in
Virginia
and Ontario.
============
(9) NASA TAKES 200 YEAR RAIN CHECK ON PLUTO
From SpaceDaily, 19 October 2000
http://www.spacedaily.com/news/pluto-00f1.html
Cameron Park - October 19, 2000
On Sept. 13, NASA space science chief Ed Weiler announced that
the
long-awaited 2004 launch of the "Pluto-Kuiper Express"
mission would be the
subject of a "stop work" order due to limited funds for
space science, and
the impact PKE was having on the Europa Orbiter mission scheduled
for launch
in 2006.
This was followed, on Sept. 29, by an announcement by Doug
Stetson (manager
of JPL's Solar System Exploration Office) that the earliest that
NASA might
now launch a Pluto mission would be "2009 or 2010". But
as Jupiter would not
be available for a gravity-assist flyby to catapult the little
probe out to
Pluto, an alternative means of propelling it rapidly into the
outer Solar
System would have to be used - such as "solar-electric
propulsion or solar
sails" - with a planned arrival at Pluto "no later than
2020".
However, the planetary science community was infuriated by the
first
decision, and unmollified by the second. Pluto Express -- unlike
most space
science missions -- will suffer an actual and serious scientific
data loss
if its arrival at Pluto is significantly delayed, since Pluto is
currently
moving away from the Sun on its elliptical orbit and its thin
atmosphere
(one of the main subjects of the mission) will soon begin
freezing out onto
its surface.
FULL STORY at http://www.spacedaily.com/news/pluto-00f1.html
================
(10) LATE EOCENE EXTINCTION
From Duncan Steel <D.I.Steel@salford.ac.uk>
Benny:
From The New York Times, 19 October 2000
http://www.nytimes.com/2000/10/19/science/science-extinction.html
Climate Change Led to Mass Extinction 34 Million Years Ago
... No mention made of the coincidence in time between this
extinction (Late Eocene) and the impact that formed the
Chesapeake
Bay crater (ca. 85 km across) and the associated strewn field
of tektites in the SE of the USA. See e.g. CCnet of 15 August,
8 September, 29 September.
Of course a 'cosmic winter' - as described in the article -
is precisely what one expects in the aftermath of a major impact.
Duncan
MODERATOR'S NOTE: I fully agree, Duncan. Despite its name,
however, a cosmic
winter doesn't mean that it's "only" colder during
winters :-)
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