PLEASE NOTE:
*
CCNet 90/2003 - 22 October 2003
EVIDENCE FOR AN UNUSUALLY ACTIVE SUN SINCE 1940
-----------------------------------------------
The reconstruction shows reliably that the period of high solar
activity during
the last 60 years is unique throughout the past 1150 years.
--Ilya G. Usoskin, Sami K. Solanki, Manfred Schüssler, Kalevi
Mursula, and Katja Alanko
Scientists at the University of Oulu in Finland and the
Max Planck Institute in Katlenburg-Lindau in Germany have
reconstructed the sunspot count back to the year 850, nearly
tripling the baseline for sunspot studies. They conclude that
over the whole 1150 year record available, the sun has been most
magnetically active (greatest number of sunspots) over the recent
60 years.
-- The American Institute of Physics Bulletin of Physics News, 21
October 2003
It is encouraging that mankind is concerned about the effects of
human
activity on climate, including the build-up of carbon dioxide.
Compared to
solar magnetic fields, however, the carbon dioxide production has
as much
influence on climate as a flea has on the weight of an elephant.
--Oliver K. Manuel, University of Missouri, CCNet, 21 October
2003
(1) EVIDENCE FOR AN UNUSUALLY ACTIVE SUN SINCE 1940
The American Institute of Physics Bulletin of
Physics News, 21 October 2003
(2) MILLENNIUM-SCALE SUNSPOT NUMBER RECONSTRUCTION: EVIDENCE FOR
AN UNUSUALLY
ACTIVE SUN SINCE THE 1940s
Physical Review Letters, October 2003
(3) SOLAR MAGNETIC FIELDS, SOLAR ERUPTIONS AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Oliver K. Manuel <oess@umr.edu>
(4) GIANT SUNSPOT DETECTED
Space Weather News for Oct. 22, 2003
(5) A DOUBLING OF THE SUN'S CORONAL MAGNETIC FIELD DURING THE
PAST 100 YEARS
Nature 399, 437 - 439 (1999)
(6) SUNSPOTS AND CLIMATE
B. Geerts and E. Linacre
(7) AND FINALLY: THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC VALUE OF IMPROVED WEATHER AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION
Space Policy Institute
==========
(1) EVIDENCE FOR AN UNUSUALLY ACTIVE SUN SINCE 1940
The American Institute of Physics Bulletin of Physics News, 21
October 2003
http://www.aip.org/enews/physnews/2003/split/658-2.html
EVIDENCE FOR AN UNUSUALLY ACTIVE SUN since the 1940s comes from a
new estimation of sunspots back to the ninth century. Many
natural
phenomena such as solar radiance and sunspots vary according to
natural cycles. The variation is subject also to additional
fluctuations (arising from as yet unexplained effects) which
complicate any study which examines only a short time interval.
The longer the baseline, the more confident one can be in drawing
out historical conclusions. In the case of sunspots, the direct
counting goes back to Galileo's time, around 1610. But
earlier
sunspot activity can be deduced from beryllium-10 traces in
Greenland and Antarctic ice cores. The reasoning is as follows:
more
sunspots imply a more magnetically active sun which then more
effectively repels the galactic cosmic rays, thus reducing their
production of Be-10 atoms in the Earth's atmosphere. Be-10 atoms
precipitate on Earth and can be traced in polar ice even after
centuries. Using this approach, scientists at the University of
Oulu
in Finland (Ilya Usoskin, ilya.usoskin@oulu.fi,
358-8-553-1377) and
the Max Planck Institute in Katlenburg-Lindau in Germany have
reconstructed the sunspot count back to the year 850, nearly
tripling the baseline for sunspot studies. They conclude that
over
the whole 1150 year record available, the sun has been most
magnetically active (greatest number of sunspots) over the recent
60
years. (Usoskin et al., Physical Review Letters, upcoming
article)
--------
(2) MILLENNIUM-SCALE SUNSPOT NUMBER RECONSTRUCTION: EVIDENCE FOR
AN UNUSUALLY
ACTIVE SUN SINCE THE 1940s
Physical Review Letters, October 2003
http://publish.aps.org/DLO/L02Oct03abs_0009.html
Ilya G. Usoskin, Sami K. Solanki, Manfred Schüssler, Kalevi
Mursula, and Katja Alanko
The extension of the sunspot number series backward in time is of
considerable interest for dynamo theory, solar, stellar, and
climate research. We have used records of the ^{10}Be
concentration in polar ice to reconstruct the average sunspot
activity level for the period between the year 850 to the
present. Our method uses physical models for processes connecting
the $^{10}$Be concentration with the sunspot number. The
reconstruction shows reliably that the period of high solar
activity during the last 60 years is unique throughout the past
1150 years. This nearly triples the time interval for which such
a statement could be made previously.
© 2003 The American Physical Society.
See also their recent paper "Reconstruction of solar
activity for the
last millennium using ^(10)Be data" http://cc.oulu.fi/~usoskin/personal/Sola2_A&A.pdf
==========
(3) SOLAR MAGNETIC FIELDS, SOLAR ERUPTIONS AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Oliver K. Manuel <oess@umr.edu>
Dear Benny,
The World Climate Conference in Moscow is a breakthrough for
honest
science. It is encouraging that mankind is concerned about
the
effects of human activity on climate, including the build-up of
carbon dioxide.
Compared to solar magnetic fields, however, the carbon dioxide
production has as much influence on climate as a flea has on the
weight of an elephant.
We address the source of solar magnetic fields and their
influence on
solar eruptions and climate in a recent paper. I have attached
the first
three pages of the new paper which give the gist. I will be happy
to send
a pdf file or paper copy to anyone interested.
With kind regards,
Oliver K. Manuel
Professor of Nuclear Chemistry
University of Missouri
Rolla, MO 65401 USA
Phone: 573-341-4420 or -4344
Fax: 573-341-6033
E-mail: oess@umr.edu or om@umr.edu
http://www.umr.edu/~om/
http://www.ballofiron.com
--------------------------------------
Super-fluidity in the Solar Interior:
Implications for Solar Eruptions and Climate
Oliver K. Manuel (1), Barry W. Ninham (2), and Stig E. Friberg
(3)
_________________________________
Efforts to understand unusual weather or
abrupt changes in
climate have been plagued by deficiencies of the standard solar
model
(SSM) [1]. While it assumes that our primary source of
energy began
as a homogeneous ball of hydrogen (H) with a steady, well-behaved
H-fusion reactor at its core, observations instead reveal a very
heterogeneous, dynamic Sun. As examples, the upward
acceleration and
departure of H+ ions from the surface of the quiet Sun and abrupt
climatic changes, including geomagnetic reversals and periodic
magnetic storms that eject material from the solar surface are
not
explained by the SSM. The present magnetic fields are
probably
deep-seated remnants of very ancient origin. These could
have been
generated from two mechanisms. These are: a) Bose-Einstein
condensation [2] of iron-rich, zero-spin material into a
rotating,
super-fluid, superconductor surrounding the solar core and/or b)
super-fluidity and quantized vortices in nucleon-paired Fermions
at
the core [3].
_________________________________
KEY WORDS : Climate, solar magnetic fields, solar cycle,
Bose-Einstein condensates
I. INTRODUCTION
Neutrons and protons, with spin 1/2,
satisfy Fermi Dirac
statistics. Matter comprised of fermions becomes more
nearly perfect
as density increases [4]. This observation led to the
suggestion
more than half a century ago that a collapsed supernova can
undergo a
transition from an ordinary star into a neutron star [5] and to
predictions that a neutron star is stable only if its mass is 1/3
Mo
< m < 3/4 Mo [6], where Mo is one solar mass. By
contrast the most
abundant, most stable, nuclei that occur in astrophysical systems
as
a result of stellar evolution have zero or even spin and satisfy
Bose
Einstein statistics. And, like the charged fermi gas, a
charged bose
gas also becomes more nearly perfect with increasing density and
temperature. Such a high density charged Bose fluid that
occurs in
astrophysical conditions can then under appropriate conditions
undergo Bose-Einstein condensation. It becomes a
super-fluid
superconductor [2]. The Meissner effect subsequently leads
to
expulsion of the magnetic field generated by collapse of the
rotating, massive object. The field would be confined to
the
neighborhood of the super-fluid surface.
Unlike for the Fermi fluid problem [3],
these observations
remarked on 40 years ago in [2] have been overlooked for
astrophysical systems. Giant gaseous planets and the solar
surface
are mostly H-1, a fermion, but the inner planets and the interior
of
the Sun consist mostly of bosons (abundant isotopes of Fe, Ni, O,
Si,
S, Mg and Ca) [7-11]. Hence, a reasonable conclusion is
that the
solar core consists of degenerate fermions in a neutron star
[12,13]
surrounded by a dense iron-rich core of a Bose Einstein
superfluid,
superconductor [2]. As a result, neutron-emission in the
core may
initiate a series of reactions that produce the Sun's luminosity,
solar neutrinos, and the continuous upward flow of H+ ions that
maintains mass separation in the Sun and annually releases 3 x
10^43
H+ ions from the surface in the solar wind [14,15]. We will
show
that deep-seated magnetic fields associated with super-fluidity
of
nucleon-paired fermions in the solar core and/or Bose-Einstein
condensation in material surrounding that core may explain the
upward
acceleration and departure of H+ ions in the solar wind and
abrupt
climatic changes, including geomagnetic reversals and the
periodic
magnetic storms that mark the solar cycle by violently ejecting
material from the solar surface.
II. THE EARTH-SUN CONNECTION
Life is fragile. Mankind lives in
fear of calamity on the
surface of a tiny, iron-rich planet that comprises about 0.0003%
of
the mass of the solar system. To calm these fears, public
funds are
channeled to the scientific community to explain the occurrence
of
natural events. The results are not always reassuring,
e.g., witness
the current debate over global warming. Climatic changes
cause
"water shortages, crop damage, stream-flow reduction, and
depletion
of groundwater and soil moisture" [16].
"Paleomagnetic
investigations (augmented by geological, paleobiological, and
geochronological studies) and magnetometer measurements of the
ocean
floor have established that the Earth's magnetic field reverses
polarity frequently, but quite irregularly, with an average time
between reversals of about 200,000 years" [ref. 17, p. 456;
18].
The Sun comprises 99.9% of the mass of
the entire solar system.
The separation between the Earth and the Sun is <3% of the
distance
to the outermost planets. Not surprisingly, the Sun
dominates most
events on Earth, including our climate [16].
==========
(4) GIANT SUNSPOT DETECTED
Space Weather News for Oct. 22, 2003
http://spaceweather.com
Sunspot 484, which first appeared this past weekend, has grown
into one of
the biggest sunspots in years. Now about the size of the planet
Jupiter,
it's easy to see. But never look directly at the sun! Visit
Spaceweather.com for safe solar observing tips.
Meanwhile, say forecasters, another big sunspot could soon appear
near the
sun's southeastern limb. The active region is not yet directly
visible,
but the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) has seen
material being
blasted over the sun's limb from the approaching spot.
Major eruptions are possible from these active regions as they
rotate
across the face of the sun over the next two weeks.
=========
(5) A DOUBLING OF THE SUN'S CORONAL MAGNETIC FIELD DURING THE
PAST 100 YEARS
Nature 399, 437 - 439 (1999)
http://www.nature.com/cgi-taf/google_referrer.taf?article_product_code=NATURE&fulltext_filename=/nature/journal/v399/n6735/full/399437a0_fs.html&_UserReference=C0A804F54654D6155B1A879AD7843F9645EC
M. LOCKWOOD1, R. STAMPER1 & M. N. WILD1
World Data Centre C-1 for STP, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory,
Chilton, Didcot OX11 0QX, UK
Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to
M.L. (e-mail: m.lockwood@rl.ac.uk.)
The solar wind is an extended ionized gas of very high electrical
conductivity, and therefore drags some magnetic flux out of the
Sun to fill the heliosphere with a weak interplanetary magnetic
field,. Magnetic reconnection-the merging of oppositely directed
magnetic fields-between the interplanetary field and the Earth's
magnetic field allows energy from the solar wind to enter the
near-Earth environment. The Sun's properties, such as its
luminosity, are related to its magnetic field, although the
connections are still not well understood,. Moreover, changes in
the heliospheric magnetic field have been linked with changes in
total cloud cover over the Earth, which may influence global
climate. Here we show that measurements of the near-Earth
interplanetary magnetic field reveal that the total magnetic flux
leaving the Sun has risen by a factor of 1.4 since 1964:
surrogate measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field
indicate that the increase since 1901 has been by a factor of
2.3. This increase may be related to chaotic changes in the
dynamo that generates the solar magnetic field. We do not yet
know quantitatively how such changes will influence the global
environment.
Nature © Macmillan Publishers Ltd 1999 Registered No. 785998
England.
========
(6) SUNSPOTS AND CLIMATE
B. Geerts and E. Linacre
http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap02/sunspots.html
Sunspot cycle
Sunspots have a diameter of about 37,000 km and appear as dark
spots within the photosphere, the outermost layer of the Sun. The
photosphere is about 400 km deep, and provides most of our solar
radiation. The layer is about 6,000 degrees Kelvin at the inner
boundary and 4,200 K on the outside. The temperature within
sunspots is about 4,600 K. The number of sunspots peaks every
11.1 years.
There is a strong radial magnetic field within a sunspot, as
implied in the picture, and the direction of the field reverses
in alternate years within the leading sunspots of a group. So the
true sunspot cycle is 22.2 years. There is also a superimposed
fluctuation with a period of 25 months, i.e. a quasi-biennial
oscillation.
Sunspots were observed in the Far East for over 2000 years, but
examined more intensely in Europe after the invention of
telescopes in the 17th century. In 1647 Johannes Hevelius
(1611-87) in Danzig made drawings of the movements of sunspots
eastwards and gradually towards the solar equator. In 1801
William Herschel (1738-1822) attempted to correlate the annual
number of sunspots to the price of grain in London. The 11-year
cycle of the number of sunspots was first demonstrated by
Heinrich Schwabe (1789-1875) in 1843.
There have been several periods during which sunspots were rare
or absent, most notably the Maunder minimum (1645-1715), and less
markedly the Dalton minimum (1795-1820) (Fig 2.8 in the book).
During the Maunder minimum the proportional concentration of
radio-carbon (14C) in the Earth's atmosphere was slightly higher
than normal, causing an underestimate of the radio-carbon date of
objects from those periods. By means of the premise of excess 14C
concentrations in independently dated material (such as tree
rings), other minima have been found at times prior to direct
sunspot observations, for instance the Sporer minimum from 1450
to1540. Data from 8,000 year-old bristle-cone pine trees indicate
18 periods of sunspot minima in the last 7,800 years (1). This
and other studies have shown that the Sun (as well as other
stars) spends about a quarter of its time with very few sunspots.
There is another well-known, super-imposed variation of annual
sunspot numbers, of about 85 years. This irregular variation
affects the length of the sunspot cycle, ranging from 9.8 to 12.0
years. Maxima of sunspot-cycle length occured in 1770, 1845 and
1940.
Sunspots and climate
Incidentally, the Sporer, Maunder, and Dalton minima coincide
with the colder periods of the Little Ice Age, which lasted from
about 1450 to 1820. More recently it was discovered that the
sunspot number during 1861-1989 shows a remarkable parallelism
with the simultaneous variation in northern hemisphere mean
temperatures (2). There is an even better correlation with the
length of the solar cycle, between years of the highest numbers
of sunspots. For example, the temperature anomaly was - 0.4 K in
1890 when the cycle was 11.7 years, but + 0.25 K in 1989 when the
cycle was 9.8 years. Some critics of the theory of man-induced
global warming have seized on this discovery to criticize the
greenhouse gas theory.
All this evokes the important question of how sunspots affect the
Earth's climate. To answer this question, we need to know how
total solar irradiance received by the Earth is affected by
sunspot activity.
Intuitively one may assume the that total solar irradiance would
decrease as the number of (optically dark) sunspots increased.
However direct satellite measurements of irradiance have shown
just the opposite to be the case. This means that more sunspots
deliver more energy to the atmosphere, so that global
temperatures should rise.
According to current theory, sunspots occur in pairs as magnetic
disturbances in the convective plasma near the Sun's surface.
Magnetic field lines emerge from one sunspot and re-enter at the
other spot. Also, there are more sunspots during periods of
increased magnetic activity. At that time more highly charged
particles are emitted from the solar surface, and the Sun emits
more UV and visible radiation. Direct measurements are uncertain,
but estimates are that the Sun's radiant energy varies by up to
0.2% between the extremes of a sunspot cycle. Polar auroras are
magnificent in years with numerous sunspots, and the 'aurora
activity' (AA) index varies in phase with the number of sunspots.
Auroras are faint and rare when the Sun is magnetically
quiescent, as during the Maunder minimum.
The periodicity of the sunspot number, and hence that of the
circulation in the solar plasma, relates to the rotation of the
Sun about the centre of gravity of whole solar system, taking
11.1 years on average. Sometimes the Sun is up to a million
kilometres from that centre, and sometimes it more or less
coincides, leading to different conditions of turbulence within
the photosphere. The transition from one condition to the other
affects the number of sunspots.
Not only does the increased brightness of the Sun tend to warm
the Earth, but also the solar wind (a stream of highly energetic
charged particles) shields the atmosphere from cosmic rays, which
produce 14C. So there is more 14C when the Sun is magnetically
quiescent. This explains why 14C samples from independently dated
material are used as a way of inferring the Sun's magnetic
history.
Recent research (3) indicates that the combined effects of
sunspot-induced changes in solar irradiance and increases in
atmospheric greenhouse gases offer the best explanation yet for
the observed rise in average global temperature over the last
century. Using a global climate model based on energy
conservation, Lane et al (3) constructed a profile of atmospheric
climate "forcing" due to combined changes in solar
irradiance and emissions of greenhouse gases between 1880 and
1993. They found that the temperature variations predicted by
their model accounted for up to 92% of the temperature changes
actually observed over the period -- an excellent match for that
period. Their results also suggest that the sensitivity of
climate to the effects of solar irradiance is about 27% higher
than its sensitivity to forcing by greenhouse gases.
Sunspots and climate prediction
We do not know why the Sun spends part of its time in a
magnetically quiescent state, and whether the sunspot minima
occur with a regularity that is sufficient to predict when the
next quiescent episode might occur.
At present there is no concern about another Little Ice Age.
Recent satellite measurements of solar brightness, analyzed by
Willson (4), show an increase from the previous cycle of sunspot
activity to the current one, indicating that the Earth is
receiving more energy from the Sun. Willson indicates that if the
current rate of increase of solar irradiance continues until the
mid 21th century, then the surface temperatures will increase by
about 0.5° C. This is small, but not a negligible fraction of
the expected greenhouse warming.
The relationship between cycle length and Earth temperatures is
not well understood. Lower-than normal temperatures tend to occur
in years when the sunspot cycle is longest, as confirmed by
records of the annual duration of sea-ice around Iceland. The
cycle will be longest again in the early 2020's.
References
Eddy, J.A. 1981: Climate and the role of the Sun. In Rotberg and
Rabb 1981, 145--67 (5).
Friis-Christensen, E. and K. Lassen 1991. Length of the solar
cycle, an indication of solar activity closely associated with
climate. Science 254, 698-700.
Lane, L.J., M.H. Nichols, and H.B. Osborn 1994: Time series
analyses of global change data. Environ. Pollut., 83, 63-68.
Willson, R.C. 1997. Total solar irradiance trend during solar
cycles 21 and 22. Science, 277, 1963-5.
Rotberg, I. and T.K. Rabb (eds) 1981: Climate and History.
(Princeton Univ. Press) 280pp.
=========
(7) AND FINALLY: THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC VALUE OF IMPROVED WEATHER AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION
Space Policy Institute
http://www.gwu.edu/~spi
Ray A. Williamson
Henry R. Hertzfeld
Joseph Cordes
Space Policy Institute
The George Washington University
Washington, DC 20052
http://www.gwu.edu/~spi
December 2002
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Socio-Economic Value of Improved Weather and Climate
Information
Virtually all economic sectors and many public and private
activities are affected in
some measure by changes in weather and climate. Uncertainties in
the scope and severity of
these changes pose financial and social risks for individuals,
businesses, and government
agencies. Hence, achieving more accurate weather and climate
forecasts contributes to well
being and the economy by reducing risk and creating new
opportunities.
Over the past four decades the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration
(NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) have made
considerable scientific progress towards enhancing the accuracy
of weather and climate predictions.
Improved predictions made possible by global satellite data have
led to numerous
social and economic benefits, including more effective management
of energy resources; enhanced
natural disaster planning, mitigation, and response; cost savings
in aviation, agriculture,
and other industries; and in the effectiveness of the U.S.
military. Sophisticated instruments
on future observation satellites will continue the trend toward
achieving a better understanding
of Earth's climate and establishing a continuing basis for
expanding domestic
and global socio-economic benefits.
Yet scientific understanding is only the beginning of the process
of developing socioeconomic
benefits from satellite data. The data must be analyzed, combined
with information
obtained from other sources, placed into appropriate models of
the behavior of global
weather and climate, and turned into information to be
disseminated at the right time in useable
forms to individuals and organizations that put the information
to practical use. The
paths from space data to decisions capable of generating economic
benefits are complex;
they vary with each application and cross several institutional
boundaries. They also require
myriad information linkages. At times, potential benefits are
unrealized as a result of inadequate or untimely data transfers.
Thus, increases in scientific information about weather and
climate do not automatically
create information that is of economic or social value. This
implies that the mix of
funded research projects could change over time depending on how
considerations of economic
value are weighed along with the scientific merits of earth
sensing activities.
Reducing uncertainties results in enhanced benefits for:
* Improving civil government and military planning: Weather
conditions have a major
role in government planning for administering forests,
grasslands, and other lands under
federal management. Military operations, also, whether in war or
peacetime, are affected
by weather conditions. More accurate weather information reduces
risk to personnel and
gives them an information edge over adversaries. In peacetime,
applying weather forecasts
to logistics and field operations reduces operational costs by
improving routing and
timing of deliveries.
* Improving natural hazard mitigation, response, and recover:
More accurate prediction
of severe weather can help substantially reduce the costs to
society of weather-related
disasters. Better information induces governments, businesses,
and individuals to invest
in loss-reduction activities; it can also reduce economic costs
from unnecessary loss-
reduction activities that derive from uncertainty about adverse
weather (e.g., evacuations
during hurricanes).
* Improving industrial planning: Reduced uncertainty translates
directly into better use
of scarce productive resources, as well as dampened fluctuations
in prices and quantities
of commodities affected by weather and climate.
* Hedging against uncertainty. Providing better information about
the probabilities of
weather-related events also enables the emergence of specialized
markets that help mitigate
the economic and financial consequences of uncertainty, such as
insurance, trading
in commodities futures, and weather derivatives.
Estimating Socioeconomic Value
This study has examined a range of studies of the economic value
of weather forecasts,
concluding that savings and benefits are real, but extremely
difficult to measure on a
national or global scale. The best studies examine a component of
an industry or sector, estimating economic value very narrowly.
Since these studies have been done at different times
by different researchers, using different methodologies, the
results cannot be combined into
one summary statistic. Nevertheless, these studies show in a
general way the potential socioeconomic value of investments in
Earth science research.
Some studies have examined the value of short-term weather
predictions, e.g.,
* Savings to oil drilling companies in the Gulf of Mexico from
avoiding unnecessary drill
rig evacuations could equal $18 million per year, given a 50%
reduction in hurricane
forecast error.
* Improved fueling decisions at Australian airports resulting
from better forecasts could
save companies some $6-7 million per year.
* More accurate short term forecasts can save U.S. agriculture an
additional $40 million
dollars per year in avoided irrigation costs.
* Improving short-term forecasts could result in marginal
benefits of $500 million per year
for electric energy and gas power producers.
* Better hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic Coast over the past
100 years have resulted in
major reductions in yearly deaths from hurricane activity.
Other studies have focused on the effects of seasonal climatic
change. For example,
the worldwide socio-economic effects of El Niño and the Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) can
equal billions of dollars in a severe El Niño season. However,
these effects can be positive as
well as negative, requiring detailed analysis of their net
benefits for any region and ENSO
event.
Current and Foreseeable Improvements in Weather and Climate
Predictions
Measurements from several new NASA instruments are well poised to
contribute to
improvements in weather and climate prediction. For severe
weather conditions, especially,
the additional information that synoptic, global satellite data
provide, if properly integrated
into appropriate forecast models and effectively communicated to
the public, can save lives,
reduce costs, and improve the quality of life in affected areas.
Most recently, several scientific studies show how data from
NASA's TRMM and
Quikscat research satellites can be incorporated into the weather
forecasting process, improving
knowledge of the paths and force of tropical cyclones and other
severe weather. Some
data products from future missions such as the NPOESS Preparatory
Project (NPP), Global
Precipitation Mission (GPM), and the Geostationary Imaging
Fourier Transform Spectrometer
(GIFTS) will not only advance the science of global weather and
climate research, but
will also feed directly into operational forecasts.
Transforming Research Results into Valuable Information Products
As noted, the process of moving from research to useful
applications is complex, involving
various institutions. Unfortunately, U.S. science and technology
institutional structures
tend to treat the transfer process as a linear one, where the
results of scientific research
flow through a series of steps from basic research to an
application generating socioeconomic
benefits. In reality, the process generally incorporates multiple
flow impedances and
feedback loops. Hence, the details of this process are especially
important, because small
impedances in the process flow, when added up, can result in
large barriers to implementation
and great difficulty in providing the optimum type and quality of
information to users.
NASA therefore faces a number of challenges in assuring that its
research programs
result in economic benefits to the U.S. economy. Not only is the
process of knowledge transfer
complex, but also many decisions regarding the applications of
information derived from
NASA's technology and research are out of NASA's direct control.
They may reside either
in other government agencies or in the private sector.
Findings
Our research reached a number of conclusions, the most important
of which are
summarized below:
Finding One: Although the marginal value of additional
information in a given economic
sphere may appear relatively small as a percentage, they may
translate into very large potential
economic effects. Because of the economic magnitude of sectors
affected, the total socioeconomic
effects of both short-term weather variations as well as
long-term climate changes
are very large. These effects are especially noticeable when
measured on a regional or local
level.
Finding Two: Information from NASA's Earth observations research
and development provide
significant scientific and research knowledge, but economic
methodology and studies
generally have not been adequate for measuring the value of this
type of information.
Finding Three: Although large benefits have been associated with
predictive capability for
weather and climate, the value is dependent on the timeliness and
appropriate use of the data.
The potential for greater benefits depends not only on new
research instruments and predictive
capability, but also on the effective transmission of this
information to end-users. Therefore,
without sustained and persistent NASA involvement in the task of
turning research into
useful information, the transfer of knowledge and technology is
not likely to be as successful
as it could be.
Finding Four: NASA therefore has a major responsibility for
assuring that promised economic
benefits of Earth science research from space are actually
achieved in practice. Infus-
ing the results of NASA's Earth science research into useful
applications and decision support
tools will require NASA to work closely with other Federal,
state, and local agencies. It
will also require that NOAA, and other federal agencies making
use of information products
derived from this research focus more of their effort on ensuring
that these products meet the
needs of information consumers and that they are delivered in
formats that fit the user's
needs.
Recommendations:
1. NASA should expend sustained resources on improving the
two-way flow of information
from the scientist to the application end user and back to the
scientist. The
economic value of new data and information is effectively zero
until the information is
used productively in an application that actually brings economic
benefit to an end user.
Hence, NASA should focus on developing an integrated perspective
concerning improvements
in prediction, involving other agencies and institutions in the
process.
2. NASA should conduct a detailed analysis of the research to
applications process for
several specific cases, in order to achieve the best return on
investment in Earth science
research. By understanding the details of the applications
process more fully,
NASA scientists could help design data products that are of
greater utility to the modelers,
the users of the models, and the customers of those users In
other words, quantifiable
socioeconomic benefits should be an intended part of the mission,
not merely a residual
outcome.
3. NASA could improve the long-term economic value of its Earth
science investments
by investing a small percentage of each mission's funds on
identifying potential future
user communities and potential barriers to information transfer.
To reap these
additional benefits from Earth science research, it will also be
important for NASA to
experiment with inserting new types of data into applied models
during the research
phase, such as has been done with the precipitation data from
TRMM, and to ensure that
if successful, the data stream will advance from research to
operations.
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