PLEASE NOTE:
*
CCNet 94/2003 - 3 November 2003
IRON-RICH SUN MAY LIE AT THE CORE OF SOLAR FLARES
-------------------------------------------------
The spate of solar storms that have hit Earth in recent days may
be
caused by the sun's iron-rich interior, says a University of
Missouri-Rolla
researcher who theorizes that the sun's core is made of iron
rather than
hydrogen. Dr. Oliver Manuel, a professor of nuclear chemistry,
believes that
iron, not hydrogen, is the sun's most abundant element. In a
paper accepted for
publication in the Journal of Fusion Energy, Manuel asserts that
the "standard
solar model" -- which assumes that the sun's core is made of
hydrogen -- has
led to misunderstandings of how such solar flares occur, as well
as inaccurate
views on the nature of global climate change.
--University of Missouri-Rolla, 31
October 2003
German scientists who have created a 1,000-year- record of
sunspots
said on Wednesday they discovered the Sun has been in a frenzy
since 1940
and this may be a factor in global warming. The research, based
on the
quantities of the isotope beryllium 10 found in ice bores from
Greenland
and the Antarctic, challenges the belief that carbon dioxide from
cars
and coal fires and other greenhouse gases are the only cause of
recent
warmer climates.
--Dawn, 31 October 2003
(1) IRON-RICH SUN MAY LIE AT THE CORE OF SOLAR FLARES
University of Missouri-Rolla
(2) SUN IS IN FRENZY SINCE 1940
Dawn, 31 October 2003
(3) SOLAR ERUPTION LIKELY CAUSE OF POWER OUTRAGE IN SWEDEN
Space Daily, 31 October 2003
(4) HERE COMES THE SUN - AGAIN
Space Weather News for Nov. 2, 2003
(5) DEBATE HEATS UP ON ROLE OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN HUMAN EVOLUTION
Space Daily, 30 October 2003
(6) SCIENTISTS: THINK ABOUT DEFENDING EARTH FROM ASTEROIDS
The State, 31 October 2003
(7) AND FINALLY: DOOMWATCH: TIME TO PUT YOUR TIN-FOIL HAT ON?
The Scotsman, 28 October 2003
=================
(1) IRON-RICH SUN MAY LIE AT THE CORE OF SOLAR FLARES
Andrew Careaga
University of Missouri-Rolla
Office of Public Relations
Contact: Andrew Careaga
Phone: 573-341-4328
Email: acareaga@umr.edu
31 October 2003
IRON-RICH SUN MAY LIE AT THE CORE OF SOLAR FLARES
ROLLA, Mo. -- The spate of solar storms that have hit Earth in
recent days may be caused by the sun's iron-rich interior, says a
University of Missouri-Rolla researcher who theorizes that the
sun's core is made of iron rather than hydrogen.
Dr. Oliver Manuel, a professor of nuclear chemistry, believes
that iron, not hydrogen, is the sun's most abundant element. In a
paper accepted for publication in the Journal of Fusion Energy,
Manuel asserts that the "standard solar model" -- which
assumes that the sun's core is made of hydrogen -- has led to
misunderstandings of how such solar flares occur, as well as
inaccurate views on the nature of global climate change.
Recent solar flares erupting on the sun's surface have unleashed
powerful geomagnetic storms -- gigantic clouds of highly charged
particles that pose a threat to electric utilities,
high-frequency radio communications, satellite navigation systems
and television broadcasts. Continued turbulence on the sun will
remain a concern for the coming days, according to space
forecasters.
Manuel claims that hydrogen fusion creates some of the sun's
heat, as hydrogen -- the lightest of all elements -- moves to the
sun's surface. But most of the heat comes from the core of an
exploded supernova that continues to generate energy within the
iron-rich interior of the sun, Manuel says.
"We think that the solar system came from a single star, and
the sun formed on a collapsed supernova core," Manuel
explains. "The inner planets are made mostly of matter
produced in the inner part of that star, and the outer planets of
material that formed out of the outer layers of that star."
Manuel's paper, "Superfluidity in the Solar Interior:
Implications for Solar Eruptions and Climate," suggests that
the conventional view of how magnetic fields in the sun's
interior -- the cause of solar flares and storms -- are formed is
flawed. "The prevailing opinion in the solar physics
community is that solar dynamos generate the sun's magnetic
fields by plasma flows in the outer part of the sun. ... The
model of a hydrogen-filled sun offers few other options,"
Manuel says.
Manuel offers another explanation, based on his assertion that
the solar system was born catastrophically out of a supernova --
a theory that goes against the widely-held belief among
astrophysicists that the sun and planets were formed 4.5 billion
years ago in a relatively ambiguous cloud of interstellar dust.
In his latest paper, Manuel posits that the changing fields are
caused either by the magnetic field of the rotating neutron star
at the core of the sun itself or by a reaction that converts the
iron surrounding the neutron star into a superconductor. This
reaction is called Bose-Einstein condensation.
While Manuel's theory is seen as highly controversial by many in
the scientific community, other researchers have confirmed that
distant solar systems orbit stars that are rich in iron and other
metals. Last summer, astronomer Debra Fischer at the University
of California, Berkeley, presented her findings of a study of
more than 750 stars at the International Astronomical Union
meeting in Sydney, Australia. Fischer and her team determined
that 20 percent of metal-rich stars have planets orbiting them.
Manuel believes Fischer's research helps to confirm his 40-year
effort to change the way people think about the solar system's
origins. He thinks a supernova rocked our area of the Milky Way
galaxy some five billion years ago, giving birth to all the
heavenly bodies that populate the solar system.
Analyses of meteorites reveal that all primordial helium is
accompanied by "strange xenon," he says, adding that
both helium and strange xenon came from the outer layer of the
supernova that created the solar system. Helium and strange xenon
are also seen together in Jupiter.
Back in 1975, Manuel and another UMR researcher, Dr. Dwarka Das
Sabu, first proposed that the solar system formed from the debris
of a spinning star that exploded as a supernova. They based their
claim on studies of meteorites and moon samples which showed
traces of strange xenon. Data from NASA's Galileo probe of
Jupiter's helium-rich atmosphere in 1996 reveals traces of
strange xenon gases -- solid evidence against the conventional
model of the solar system's creation, Manuel says.
Manuel first began to develop the iron-rich sun theory in 1972.
That year, Manual and his colleagues reported in the British
journal Nature that the xenon found in primitive meteorites was a
mixture of strange and normal xenon (Nature 240, 99-101). The
strange xenon is enriched in isotopes that are made when a
supernova explodes, the researchers reported, and could not be
produced within meteorites.
Three years later, Manuel and Sabu found that all of the
primordial helium in meteorites is trapped in the same sites that
trapped strange xenon. Based on these findings, they concluded
that the solar system formed directly from the debris of a single
supernova, and the sun formed on the supernova's collapsed core.
Giant planets like Jupiter grew from material in the outer part
of the supernova, while Earth and the inner planets formed out of
material form the supernova's interior. This is why the outer
planets consist mostly of hydrogen, helium and other light
elements, and the inner planets are made of heavier elements like
iron, sulfur and silicon, Manuel says.
Strange xenon came from the helium-rich outer layers of the
supernova, while normal xenon came from its interior. There was
no helium in the interior because nuclear fusion reactions there
changed the helium into the heavier elements, Manuel says.
Andrew Careaga || Office of Public Relations
University of Missouri-Rolla
Home of the 2003 National Champion Solar Car Team!
acareaga@umr.edu || http://news.umr.edu || http://research.umr.edu
Phone: (573) 341-4328
Fax: (573) 341-6157
===========
(2) SUN IS IN FRENZY SINCE 1940
Dawn, 31 October 2003
http://www.dawn.com/2003/10/31/int17.htm
HAMBURG: German scientists who have created a 1,000-year- record
of sunspots said on Wednesday they discovered the Sun has been in
a frenzy since 1940 and this may be a factor in global warming.
The research, based on the quantities of the isotope beryllium 10
found in ice bores from Greenland and the Antarctic, challenges
the belief that carbon dioxide from cars and coal fires and other
greenhouse gases are the only cause of recent warmer climates.
The team from the Max Planck Institute for Aeronomy in Germany
and Finland's Oulu University discovered a past phase of elevated
sunspot activity between 1100 and 1250, though there were far
fewer sunspots then than today.
The earth was very warm at that time and Vikings were recorded as
farming on Greenland.
A gas cloud from one of the flares ever seen on the Sun reached
the Earth this week causing a magnetic storm that disrupted radio
and radar systems, forcing safety authorities to space out
airline traffic. More disruption are expected.
The findings, which are to appear in the December issue of
Physical Review Letters, chart sunspots back to the year 850.
Sunspots were first observed in the early 17th century after the
discovery of the telescope.
Astronomers have made on-again-off-again notes ever since of the
spots, where the Sun's surface appears darker because magnetic
fields disrupt the outflow of energy from the star's interior.
Most of the surface is 5,800 degrees Celsius, but a spot is 1,500
degrees colder.
The 11-year cycle of sunspots from strong to weak to strong again
is well known to anyone using shortwave radio, but the long-term
fluctuation was not plain. The team said the surge of spots and
gas flares since 1940 was the greatest in the entire period
checked. The activity was 2.5 times the long-term average. Solar
activity matched average temperatures on the Earth, they added.
Radioactive beryllium 10 used for the readings comes from cosmic
rays bombarding nitrogen and oxygen in the air. The element falls
to the ground with rain and snow.Layers are preserved in the ice
caps. Sunspots block cosmic rays from reaching the Earth, meaning
less beryllium and increased ultraviolet radiation.
The statement noted a much-discussed Danish hypothesis suggesting
cosmic radiation helps tiny particles to form in air, increasing
cloud formation. Sunspots would thus mean fewer clouds. -DPA
Copyright 2003, dpa
==========
(3) SOLAR ERUPTION LIKELY CAUSE OF POWER OUTRAGE IN SWEDEN
Space Daily, 31 October 2003
http://www.spacedaily.com/2003/031031111934.of7v5sft.html
MALMOE, Sweden (AFP) Oct 31, 2003
An hour-long power outage that affected 20,000 homes in Sweden's
southern city of Malmoe on Thursday was probably caused by a
powerful geomagnetic storm that hit the Earth, power company
Sydkraft said.
"Since everything worked properly once power was restored,
and since we have not had any further disruptions, a geomagnetic
disruption is the likeliest explanation," Sydkraft
operations engineer Sven-Aake Andersson told Swedish news agency
TT on Friday.
A second powerful solar flare in just three days hit the Earth on
Thursday, as the planet was recovering from a similar, earlier
geomagnetic storm that snarled telecommunications and sparked a
burst of the Northern Lights.
The storms also created some interference with the North American
power grid.
A solar flare is a magnetic storm on the sun that appears as a
very bright spot, and sends gas from the sun's surface into
space.
The solar eruption will continue to affect the Earth's magnetic
field for the next two weeks, experts say.
The first storm erupted from the surface of the sun around 1100
GMT Tuesday, firing a giant cloud of charged ions straight
towards the Earth. It was the third most powerful solar eruption
ever observed.
The second eruption was observed Wednesday at 2048 GMT, and the
geomagnetic storm it created hit the Earth around 1500 GMT
Thursday, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration's Space Environment Center.
NOAA space weather officials classified the geomagnetic storm as
a G-5 or "extreme" on a scale that runs 1 to 5. In
terms of frequency, this level of storm occurs only once, if at
all, during the 11-year solar activity cycle, officials said.
All rights reserved. © 2003 Agence France-Presse.
=========
(4) HERE COMES THE SUN - AGAIN
Space Weather News for Nov. 2, 2003
http://spaceweather.com
Another remarkable solar flare has erupted from giant sunspot
486--an
X8-class blast at 1725 UT on Nov. 2nd. Because the sunspot is
nearing the
sun's western limb, this explosion was not aimed squarely at
Earth. Even
so, a coronal mass ejection (CME) is heading our way. Auroras
could appear
on Nov. 3rd or 4th when the fast-moving cloud delivers a glancing
blow to
Earth's magnetic field. Visit spaceweather.com for more
information and
images.
============
(5) DEBATE HEATS UP ON ROLE OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN HUMAN EVOLUTION
Space Daily, 30 October 2003
http://www.spacedaily.com/news/human-03b.html
Boulder - Oct 29, 2003
Scientists at the Geological Society of America annual meeting in
Seattle next week are taking a comprehensive new look at drivers
of human evolution. It now appears that climate variability
during the Plio-Pleistocene (approximately 6 million years in
duration) played a hugely important role.
Astronomically controlled climate forcing on scales ranging from
20,000 to 100,000 years down to El Ninos (5-7 years) made a
highly unpredictable environment in which generalists with
intelligence, language, and creativity were best able to adapt.
Traditional studies of human evolution have focused largely on
finding and dating hominid fossils. Today the investigation is
rapidly expanding with advances in DNA research and understanding
of global climate change. The combination of archeological,
geologic, and paleoclimatic evidence allows scientists to explore
such tantalizing questions as:
What were the drivers that may have nudged hominids toward
bi-pedalism?
Why did only one species ultimately succeed at it?
How might global climate change have influenced brain
development, development of tools, and the exodus from Africa?
How did glacial periods in Europe, Asia, and North America impact
humans?
"The answers to these questions will not all come from the
bones, but from what was taking place in the environment in which
they were found," says Gail Ashley, Dept. of Geological
Sciences, Rutgers University.
Ashley and Craig Feibel of Rutgers have assembled an
interdisciplinary group of distinguished scientists physical
anthropologists, archaeologists, geologists, and
paleoclimatologists for a Pardee Keynote Symposia, The
Paleoenvironmental and Paleoclimatic Framework of Human
Evolution. The symposium takes place at GSA on Monday, Nov. 3.
- William Ruddiman, celebrated author of Earth's Climate: Past
and Future, provides an overview of climate change over the last
several million years, helping to separate fact from fiction.
- Bernard Wood, a world-renowned physical anthropologist,
discusses the hominin family "Tree of Life" and the
challenges of working with the meager fossil record of human
evolution spanning the last 7 million years.
- Thure Cerling is a pioneer in using isotope records of bones
and teeth. With co-authors Meave Leakey and John Harris he
provides a comprehensive look at the impact of climate change on
the biological record from one of richest fossil sites in the
world (Lake Tukana, Kenya).
- Jonathan Wynn unravels some of the paleoclimate puzzles from
fossil soils at key sites in the "Cradle of Mankind" in
East Africa. The soils provide clear documentation of extremely
arid events. Prolonged droughts may have been a factor in
triggering migrations of hominins out of Africa.
- Julia Lee-Thorpe, a trail blazing geochemist, has taken a more
personal approach to human evolution by examining hominin
nutrition through analyses of tooth enamel. Diet is a direct
record of available food resources and an indirect record of the
environment in which the individual lived.
- Andrew Hill, a globally recognized expert on the
paleontological record in East Africa, reports on the latest
findings from the superb paleoenvironmental record of the Tugen
Hills, Kenya (site of the discovery of the 6 million-year-old
"Millennium Man").
- Gail Ashley speculates on the critical role of the availability
of water in affecting human evolution, based on studies from
Olduvai Gorge and other fossil localities. Dramatic fluctuations
in climate (wet to dry) in East Africa may have been an important
factor in affecting natural selection of species able to cope
through arid periods.
- David Lordkipanidze and Reid Ferring tell an exciting chapter
on the "Out-of-Africa" story from Dmanisi, Republic of
Georgia. The 1.8 million-year-old hominin remains are the first
discoveries outside Africa to show clear affinities to early
African Homo.
- Rick Potts, author of the provocative book Humanity's Descent:
The Consequences of Ecological Instability, contributes important
new findings from China revealing the successful adaption of some
hominin groups 400,000 years ago to climatic fluctuations and
drastic environmental change.
- James Dixon, a recognized authority on peopling of the
Americas, provides the most recent chapter in the record of
humans. Continental ice sheets, sea level changes and the
presence of the Bering land bridge effectively controlled
immigration from Asia to the New World.
- Craig Feibel provides perspective on the physical environmental
constraints in which human evolution took place. He examines the
role of geologic factors such as plate tectonics, sea level
change, and climate fluctuations in affecting selective pressure
on hominins and thereby impacting how and where humans evolved
===========
(6) SCIENTISTS: THINK ABOUT DEFENDING EARTH FROM ASTEROIDS
The State, 31 October 2003
http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/nation/7140212.htm
By PETER MUCHA
Philadelphia Inquirer
PHILADELPHIA - So far, thank heavens, no doomsday-size asteroid
or comet has been found heading straight for us. The bad news,
however, is that they don't make bulletproof vests for planets.
Since the chances of an asteroid hitting Earth are remote but
real, scientists and engineers are exploring all sorts of ideas
for protecting the planet.
The "Armageddon" strategy - sending up Bruce Willis
with a nuke - is likely to fail or even backfire, scientists say.
An asteroid or comet tops the list of suspects for the sudden
extinction of half of all species about 200 million years ago,
and another may have exterminated the dinosaurs 65 million years
ago.
Congress has mandated that NASA find 90 percent of one-kilometer
Near-Earth Objects by 2008. So far, 672 have been detected, and
none is a sure threat for roughly the rest of the century.
An asteroid that size doesn't sound so big, but when hitting
Earth at 25,000 to 50,000 miles per hour, the heat, smoke and
debris could alter the climate and destroy crops, resulting in
hundreds of millions of deaths.
The odds of such an event occurring within the next year are
about 1 in 600,000, according to a recent MIT study - yet that's
far more likely your next airline flight crashing or your next
lottery ticket hitting a multistate lottery.
These aren't the only rocky horrors. There may be a half-million
or more smaller, harder-to-detect NEOs capable of devastating a
city or region.
Scientists say the time has come to get serious about defending
the planet.
Blasting an asteroid with nuclear missiles could prove
ineffective, even disastrous. Many asteroids are agglomerations
of rubble and could absorb the blast, computer simulations
suggest. Besides, warns Clark Chapman of the Southwest Research
Institute in Boulder, Colo., "you'd break up the body
uncontrollably, with potentially disastrous results" - like
multiple fragments pounding the Earth.
Deflection - changing an asteroid's path - is the best bet,
especially if the impact is years away. Ideas include: Use a
giant airbag (chemically inflated in space) pushed by a rocket;
position a giant magnifying glass or curved mirror to focus
sunlight and scorch rock into blasts of gas; land a digging
machine that creates thrust by ejecting material into space; or
merely change the object's color - paint it or cover it with dirt
- to alter how it absorbs and reflects the sun's heat.
Two comprehensive proposals come from groups of experts devoting
special attention to the problem.
Researchers at NASA's Langley Research Center, led by Mazarek,
have proposed a space-based laser system. This could vaporize
parts of an asteroid's surface to force it to move. If stationed
in space - say on the moon - this laser system could stand ready
to alter an asteroid's course in a few months. Other nudging
approaches could require many months or even years.
Powerful-enough lasers, however, have not yet been developed, so,
even if such a project won approval and funding, it might take
two or more decades to complete.
The other proposal, to develop a kind of space tugboat, was put
forth by the B612 Foundation, an independent anti-asteroid group
headed by ex-astronaut Rusty Schweickart and named after the
asteroid address in "The Little Prince." This
space-going vessel would anchor itself to an asteroid, get its
spin under control, and slowly push it off-course. The group
wants NASA to take up its proposal and test a system by 2015.
How about fighting fire with fire - deflect a smaller, more
cooperative asteroid to slam the would-be assassin aside? This
idea "has great appeal - free kinetic energy!" said
Erik Asphaug, a professor at the University of California at
Santa Cruz whose calculations helped cast doubt on using nuclear
weapons.
Expressing skepticism is Joseph Spitale, the scientist at the
University of Arizona's Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, who
proposed the coat of paint idea. "It's probably very
difficult to modify the orbit of an asteroid with the precision
required to make it hit anything."
The more ideas the better, says Jonathan W. Campbell, a
researcher at Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala. He
believes a combination of options will be needed.
Getting funding even for development and testing will be a
challenge, said Maranek. "We need to practice moving comets
and asteroids so we can be ready to divert an object that is a
hazard. However, I am afraid that the frequency of this type of
natural disaster makes it extremely difficult to justify
developing a planetary defense system in our short-sighted,
political-term-timeframe-focused society."
Copyright 2003, The State
============
(7) AND FINALLY: DOOMWATCH: TIME TO PUT YOUR TIN-FOIL HAT ON?
The Scotsman, 28 October 2003
http://www.news.scotsman.com/scitech.cfm?id=1191212003
Ben Judge
Doomwatch is an occasional series chronicling media coverage of
the myriad impending disasters that will wipe out life on earth
as we know it. This week the 'Perfect Space Storm' is heading our
way. Time to take cover.
Apparently, we are having a bit of weather. And not just any
weather - space weather. A magnetic storm the size of Jupiter is
whirling around the surface of the sun, blooting out masses of
x-rays and causing what is known as a 'coronal mass ejection'.
Crikey.
Time to panic, then, with headlines such as "Solar storm
could spark catastrophe" and "Sun's gas explosions
could hit Earth."
The last big storm, (the 'perfect space storm') occurred in 1859
and blew out those new-fangled telegraph wires all over the
place. Given the reliance we now place on computers and all
things electrical, could we be heading back to the Victorian era
as all our precious 1s and 0s get magnetised into oblivion?
Well, probably not. Not just yet, anyway.
The "explosions" about to hit earth won't be quite as
spectacular as they sound. Yes, the Northern Lights are going
south for a holiday, but unless you're a pigeon fancier,
short-wave radio enthusiast or an astronaut, you'll probably
remain unaffected, and wonder what all the fuss is about.
Obviously, there will be some effects on us. Several billion tons
of superheated gas is certainly heading our way. Radio
communications will be interfered with, but you'll still be able
to listen to your favourite FM DJ in peace. Ground to air, ship
to shore, shortwave radio - that sort of thing - will experience
distuption. Satellites may slow down as the atmosphere expands,
but all they need is a little bit of thrust and they're back up
where they belong. Mountaineers using GPS may get a little lost.
It is possible you could get a nasty dose of radiation, which may
increase your chances of getting cancer. Travelling in a
commercial aircraft at high latitudes, you could receive a dose
of x-rays equivalent to 100 chest x-rays. Space walking
astronauts, however, are at greatest risk but down here on the
ground, the atmosphere generally does a pretty good job of
shielding us from space nasties.
AC power lines can get a big unpleasant burst of Direct Current
which could knock out electricity. But with a little notice, this
can be minimised.
However, if you're a homing pigeon, (or whale or dolphin), watch
out - you'll probably get lost. Changes to the earth's magnetic
field confuse their navigation systems.
If you're worried about whether it's safe to go outside, you can
always get a space weather forecast.
And if you need up to the minute information on any of the 540
rogue (sic) asteroids hurtling towards us, or space stations
passing over your house, you can sign up for telephone alerts
from the space weather phone - leaving you plenty of time to put
your tin-foil hat on. Designed and constructed primarily as a
means of avoiding government mind control, they may be just as
effective at deflecting unwanted solar radiation.
Of course, you could always be reasonable, wrap up warm, fill up
a flask with Bovril and try and catch the Aurora while it lasts.
Copyright 2003, The Scotsman
-----------
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CCNet 95/2003 - 3 November 2003
SUN ON FIRE, UNLEASHES THREE MORE MAJOR FLARES
----------------------------------------------
I think the last week will go into the history books as one of
the most
dramatic periods of solar activity we have seen in modern time.
-- Paal Brekke, SOHO Deputy Project Scientist,
3 November 2003
"We are living with a very unusual sun at the moment."
--Mike Lockwood, Rutherford Appleton
Laboratory, 2 November 2003
(1) SUN ON FIRE, UNLEASHES THREE MORE MAJOR FLARES
Space.com, 3 November 2003
(2) YET ANOTHER X FLARE
Paal Brekke <pbrekke@esa.nascom.nasa.gov>
(3) SUN MORE ACTIVE THAN FOR A MILLENNIUM
New Scientist, 2 November 2003
(4) HYDROGEN SULFIDE, NOT CARBON DIOXIDE, MAY HAVE CAUSED LARGEST
MASS EXTINCTION
Ron Baalke <baalke@zagami.jpl.nasa.gov>
=========
(1) SUN ON FIRE, UNLEASHES THREE MORE MAJOR FLARES
Space.com, 3 November 2003
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/solar_flares_031103.html
By Robert Roy Britt
The Sun cut loose with three severe flares in less than 24 hours
through
Monday morning, bringing to nine the number of major eruptions in
less
than two weeks.
Scientists have never witnessed a string of activity like this.
Colorful aurora are expected to grace the skies at high latitudes
and
possibly into lower portions of the United States and Europe over
the
next two or three nights. Satellites and power grids could once
again be
put at risk.
Early Monday, Paal Brekke, deputy project manager of the SOHO
spacecraft, was still digesting the significance of the three
additional
outbursts on top of two back-to-back monster flares Oct. 28 and
29.
A space storm can only achieve full potential if its magnetic
field is
oriented south, opposite to that of Earth's protective
magnetosphere
which always points north.
"I think the last week will go into the history books as one
of the most
dramatic periods of solar activity we have seen in modern
time," Brekke
told SPACE.com.
None of the latest eruptions was aimed directly at Earth, but
glancing
blows are expected.
By the numbers
The flares this week began with an X8 event at 12:25 p.m. ET
Sunday. On
this scale, all X-storms are severe, and the number indicates the
degree
of severity. An X3 flare erupted at 8:30 p.m. Sunday.
Reports of the third flare are preliminary. It left the Sun at
4:55 a.m.
Monday and is estimated to be an X4. The trio of outbursts comes
within
a week of the unprecedented, back-to-back severe flares rated X17
and
X10.
The first four flares in this long, amazing series date back to
Oct. 22
and were ranked less than X2.
All flares of this magnitude are capable of disrupting
communications
systems and power grids and harming satellites. Two Japanese
satellite
failures and a power outage in Sweden were blamed on the first
six
storms.
The new flares were accompanied by coronal mass ejections of
charged
particles that take anywhere from 18 hours to two or three days
to reach
Earth. These CMEs represent the brunt of the storm unleashed by a
flare.
A storm's precise strength, however, cannot be known until about
30
minutes before it strikes and depends on the orientation of its
magnetic
field. If that field is southward -- opposite the direction of
Earth's
north-pointing magnetic field -- then the potential is greatest
for
accelerating the local particles that can then damage satellites
and
fuel aurora.
More aurora
Scientists said the eruptions will generate increased auroras,
the
colorful Northern and Southern Lights excited by fast-moving
particles,
beginning midday Monday and into Tuesday and beyond. The lights
shine
because particles excite gas molecules in the atmosphere.
The chance of severe geomagnetic storming -- the root of auroras
-- at
middle latitudes is 30 percent Monday and 50 percent Tuesday,
according
to NOAA's Space Environment Center. The precise extent of the
aurora at
any moment can't be predicted, but it can be seen in real time
with
SPACE.com's Aurora Cam.
The fist flare Sunday was generated by Sunspot 486, which was the
site
of last week's major storms. The one late Sunday came from
Sunspot 488,
which is huge but has not been a major player until now. Monday's
flare
also leapt from Sunspot 488.
Both sunspots are about to rotate off the right side of the Sun's
face,
so their associated CMEs were not aimed squarely at Earth.
However,
these clouds of hot gas expand as they race into space at up to 5
million mph, so at least some effect at Earth is predicted.
Sunspots are dark, cooler regions of the solar surface. They are
areas
of pent-up magnetic activity, caps on upwelling matter and energy
that
can blow at any moment.
No scientist can recall nine X-class flares ever occurring in a
12-day
period. More major flares are possible this week, forecasters
said.
Copyright 2003, Space.com
=============
(2) YET ANOTHER X FLARE
Paal Brekke <pbrekke@esa.nascom.nasa.gov>
YET another X flrea bursted from the Sun right now. This is the
thirds
X-flare within 18 hours. This was about an X5.
A proton storm is in progress..
http://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime-images.html
http://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/spaceweather/
Paal
-----
Dr. Paal Brekke,
SOHO Deputy Project Scientist (European Space Agency - ESA)
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Email: pbrekke@esa.nascom.nasa.gov
Mail Code 682.3, Bld. 26, Room 1, Tel.:
1-301-286-6983/301 996 9028
(cell)
Greenbelt, Maryland 20771, USA.
Fax: 1-301-286-0264
------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOHO WEB: http://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/
PERSONAL WEB: http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/localinfo/brekke.html
------------------------------------------------------------------------
=============
(3) SUN MORE ACTIVE THAN FOR A MILLENNIUM
New Scientist, 2 November 2003
http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99994321
The Sun is more active now than it has been for a millennium. The
realisation, which comes from a reconstruction of sunspots
stretching
back 1150 years, comes just as the Sun has thrown a tantrum. Over
the
last week, giant plumes of have material burst out from our
star's
surface and streamed into space, causing geomagnetic storms on
Earth.
The dark patches on the surface of the Sun that we call sunspots
are a
symptom of fierce magnetic activity inside. Ilya Usoskin, a
geophysicist
who worked with colleagues from the University of Oulu in Finland
and
the Max Planck Institute for Aeronomy in Katlenburg-Lindau,
Germany, has
found that there have been more sunspots since the 1940s than for
the
past 1150 years.
Sunspot activity
Sunspot observations stretch back to the early 17th century, when
the
telescope was invented. To extend the data farther back in time,
Usoskin's team used a physical model to calculate past sunspot
numbers
from levels of a radioactive isotope preserved in ice cores taken
from
Greenland and Antarctica.
Global warming
Ice cores provide a record of the concentration of beryllium-10
in the
atmosphere. This is produced when high-energy particles from
space
bombard the atmosphere, but when the Sun is active its magnetic
field
protects the Earth from these particles and levels of
beryllium-10 are
lower.
There was already tantalising evidence that beryllium-10 is
scarcer now
than for a very long time, says Mike Lockwood, from the UK's
Rutherford
Appleton Laboratory near Oxford.
But he told New Scientist that when he saw the data converted to
sunspot
numbers he thought, "why the hell didn't I do this?" It
makes the
conclusion very stark, he says. "We are living with a very
unusual sun
at the moment."
The findings may stoke the controversy over the contribution of
the Sun
to global warming. Usoskin and his team are reluctant to be
dragged into
the debate, but their work will probably be seized upon by those
who
claim that temperature rises over the past century are the result
of
changes in the Sun's output (New Scientist, print edition, 12
April
2003). The link between the Sun's magnetic activity and the
Earth's
climate is, however, unclear.
Journal reference: Physical Review Letters (in press)
Jenny Hogan
Copyright 2003, New Scientist
===============
(4) HYDROGEN SULFIDE, NOT CARBON DIOXIDE, MAY HAVE CAUSED LARGEST
MASS EXTINCTION
Ron Baalke <baalke@zagami.jpl.nasa.gov>
http://live.psu.edu/story/4549
Hydrogen sulfide, not carbon dioxide, may have caused largest
mass
extinction
Penn State
November 3, 2003
Seattle, Wash. -- While most scientists agree that a meteor
strike
killed the dinosaurs, the cause of the largest mass extinction in
Earth's history, 251 million years ago, is still unknown,
according
to geologists.
"During the end-Permian extinction 95 percent of all species
on Earth
became extinct, compared to only 75 percent during the KT when
the
dinosaurs disappeared," says Lee R. Kump, professor of
geosciences.
"The end-Permian is puzzling. There is no convincing smoking
gun,
no compelling evidence of an asteroid impact."
Researchers have shown that the deep oceans were anoxic, lacking
oxygen,
in the late Permian and research shows that the continental shelf
areas
in the end-Permian were also anoxic. One explanation is that sea
level
rose so that the anoxic deep water was covering the shelf.
Another
possibility is that the surface ocean and deep ocean mixed,
bringing
anoxic waters to the surface.
Decomposition of organisms in the deep ocean could have caused an
overabundance of carbon dioxide, which is lethal to many oceanic
organisms and land-based animals.
"However, we find mass extinction on land to be an unlikely
consequence
of carbon dioxide levels of only seven times the preindustrial
level,"
Kump told attendees today (Nov. 3) at the annual meeting of the
Geological Society of America in Seattle. "Plants, in
general, love
carbon dioxide, so it is difficult to think of carbon dioxide as
a good
kill mechanism."
On the other hand, hydrogen sulfide gas, produced in the oceans
through
sulfate decomposition by sulfur bacteria, can easily kill both
terrestrial and oceanic plants and animals.
Humans can smell hydrogen sulfide gas, the smell of rotten
cabbage, in
the parts per trillion range. In the deeps of the Black Sea
today,
hydrogen sulfide exists at about 34 parts per million. This is a
toxic
brew in which any aerobic, oxygen-needing, organism would die.
For the
Black Sea, the hydrogen sulfide stays in the depths because our
rich
oxygen atmosphere mixes in the top layer of water and controls
the
diffusion of hydrogen sulfide upwards.
In the end-Permian, as the levels of atmospheric oxygen fell and
the
levels of hydrogen sulfide and carbon dioxide rose, the upper
levels of
the oceans could have become rich in hydrogen sulfide
catastrophically.
This would kill most of the oceanic plants and animals. The
hydrogen
sulfide dispersing in the atmosphere would kill most terrestrial
life.
Kump and colleagues, Alexander Pavlov, University of Colorado;
Michael
Arthur, professor of geosciences, Penn State; Anthony Riccardi,
graduate
student, Penn State; and Yashuhiro Kato, University of Tokyo, are
looking
at sediments from the end-Permian found in Japan.
"We are looking for biomarkers, indications of
photosynthetic sulfur
bacteria," says Kump. "These photo autotrophic
organisms live in places
where there is no oxygen, but still some sunlight. They would
have been
in their hay day in the end-Permian." Finding biomarkers of
green sulfur
bacteria would provide evidence for hydrogen sulfide as the cause
of the
mass extinctions.
So, what of the 5 percent of the species on Earth that survived?
Kump
suggests that the mixing of the deep ocean layers and the upper
layer
was not uniform and that refugia, places where oxygen still
existed,
remained, both in the oceans and on land.
Contact
Contact
Andrea
Messer
Vicki Fong
aem1@psu.edu
vfong@psu.edu
http://live.psu.edu
http://live.psu.edu
814-865-9481
814-865-9481
-----------
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