PLEASE NOTE:
*
CCNet 104/2003 - 12 November 2003
------------------------------------------------
"Clearly our first task is to use the material wealth of
space to solve
the urgent problems we now face on Earth: to bring the
poverty-stricken
segments of the world up to a decent living standard, without
recourse
to war or punitive action against those already in material
comfort; to
provide for a maturing civilization the basic energy vital to its
survival."
--Gerard O'Neill, The High Frontier,
1976
The cold spells have so dominated that geophysicists regard warm
periods
like the present one, called the Holocene, as the oddities.
Indeed, the
scientific name for these periods - interglacials - reflects the
exceptional
nature of such times. The next ice age almost certainly will
reach its peak
in about 80,000 years, but debate persists about how soon it will
begin, with
the latest theory being that the human influence on the
atmosphere may
substantially delay the transition.
--Andrew C Revkin, The New York Times,
11 November 2003
(1) WHEN WILL THE NEXT ICE AGE BEGIN?
The New York Times, 11 November 2003
(2) WHAT CONTROLS THE GLOBAL THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION?
CO2 Science Magazine, 12 November 2003
(3) SOLAR FLARE 'REPRODUCED' IN LAB
BBC News Online, 11 November 2003
(4) A CONTINUOUS 200-YEAR INSTRUMENTAL TEMPERATURE RECORD FROM
NORTHERN SWEDEN
CO2 Science Magazine, 12 November 2003
(5) DESERTS: ARE THEY EXPANDING OR SHRINKING?
CO2 Science Magazine, 12 November 2003
= ABSTRACTS FROM THE INTERNATIONAL LUNAR CONFERENCE 2003
(6) ON ENERGY-ASTRONOMICAL-LASER SPACE BASE FOR THE
ASTEROID-COMET HAZARD MITIGATION
Viacheslav V. Ivashkin
(7) THE MOON AS A SOLAR POWER SATELLITE
Gerald Falbel, Optical Energy Technologies
Inc. Stamford, CT
(8) ELECTRIC POWER DEVELOPMENT ON THE MOON FROM IN-SITU LUNAR
RESOURCES
Alex Ignatiev, Alexandre Freundlich, and
Charles Horton
(9) COMPACT ULTRA LIGHT NUCLEAR ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEMS FOR FUTURE
MOON BASES AND COLONIES
James Powell, George, Maise, and John Paniagua
(10) THE FUTURE OF LUNAR TOURISM
Patrick Collins
(11) SCIENCE JOURNALISM VS SCIENCE ELITISM
The New York Times, 11 November 2003
(12) APOLLO LESSONS
Oliver K. Manuel <oess@umr.edu>
(13) SEEKING NEO ARTWORK
Jim Oberg <joberg@houston.rr.com>
(14) AND FINALLY: SPACEDEV AUCTIONING MICROSATELLITE MISSION ON
EBAY
SpaceDev <PR@spacedev.com>
====
(1) WHEN WILL THE NEXT ICE AGE BEGIN?
The New York Times, 11 November 2003
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/11/science/11ICE.html
By ANDREW C. REVKIN
The maxim "what goes around comes around" applies to
few things more aptly than ice ages. In a rhythm attuned to
regular wiggles in Earth's orbit and spin, 10 eras of spreading
ice sheets and falling seas have come and gone over the last
million years.
Through that span, in fact, the cold spells have so dominated
that geophysicists regard warm periods like the present one,
called the Holocene, as the oddities. Indeed, the scientific name
for these periods - interglacials - reflects the exceptional
nature of such times.
The next ice age almost certainly will reach its peak in about
80,000 years, but debate persists about how soon it will begin,
with the latest theory being that the human influence on the
atmosphere may substantially delay the transition.
This is no mere intellectual exercise. The equable conditions of
the Holocene, which has lasted 10,000 years so far, have enabled
the flowering of agriculture, technology, mobility and resulting
explosive population growth that has made the human species a
global force.
Any substantial climate shift is likely to pose enormous, though
probably surmountable, challenges.
Just 30 years ago, after a prolonged global cool spell, many
climate scientists, including some now focused on global warming,
posited that Earth might already be seeing the onset of the next
big chill.
Evidence from sea sediments and other sources had consistently
put the duration of the previous warm spell at about 10,000
years, and it was presumed that this provided at least a rough
hint of the longevity of the current interglacial.
The notion that cooling was imminent was challenged several years
ago. Some scientists gleaned more details about the previous warm
spell, which occurred 130,000 years ago, and concluded that it
lasted twice as long as they had previously estimated - 20,000
years instead of 10,000.
Others have proposed that an earlier warm era that lasted even
longer - 30,000 years - was a better model for the Holocene. But
many experts still say they are convinced that the current warmth
should, under the influence of orbital cycles alone, near an end
"any millennium now," as Dr. Richard A. Muller, a
physicist at the University of California at Berkeley, puts it.
But the planet is feeling a new influence, that of people. Humans
may delay the dawn of the next ice age by a millennium or two, or
even longer, many climate experts say, as Earth's long-buried
stores of coal, oil and other carbon-rich fossil fuels are
burned, releasing billions of tons of carbon dioxide and other
heat-trapping greenhouse gases.
That insulating blanket has a bigger climatic influence than the
slight flux in incoming solar energy from changes in Earth's
orientation relative to the Sun, said Dr. James A. Hansen, the
director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
"We have taken over control of the mechanisms that determine
the climate change [sic]," he said.
Other scientists, while agreeing with this thesis for the short
term, say that eventually the buffering properties of the
atmosphere, ocean and Earth will restore balance, returning most
of the liberated carbon to long-term storage and allowing the
orbital rhythm once again to dominate.
"Orbital changes are in a slow dance leading to a peak
80,000 years from now," said Dr. Eric J. Barron, the dean of
the College of Earth and Mineral Sciences at Penn State. "I
can hardly imagine that human influences won't have run their
course by that time."
It may seem that human-driven global warming, although perhaps a
disaster on the scale of centuries, may be a good thing in the
long run if it fends off the next ice age awhile.
But many climatologists note that the complex interplay of
greenhouse gases, orbital shifts and other influences on climate
remain poorly understood. In fact, some experts say, there is a
chance that human-induced warming could shut down heat-toting
ocean currents that keep northern latitudes warmer than they
otherwise would be. The result could be a faster descent into
glacial times instead of a delay.
Copyright 2003, The New York Times
==========
(2) WHAT CONTROLS THE GLOBAL THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION?
CO2 Science Magazine, 12 November 2003
http://www.co2science.org/journal/2003/v6n46c2.htm
Reference
Saenko, O.A., Weaver, A.J. and Schmittner, A. 2003. Atlantic deep
circulation controlled by freshening in the Southern Ocean.
Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10.1029/2003GL017681.
Background
Many people fear - or at least claim they do - that global
warming will lead to enhanced precipitation in high northern
latitudes, which will lead to augmented freshwater runoff to the
North Atlantic Ocean, which will lead to a precipitous decline in
North Atlantic Deep Water formation, which will produce a swift
reduction in the global ocean's thermohaline circulation, which
will shut down the Gulf Stream and bring cold times to Europe
[see Rapid Climate Change in our Subject Index]. Are their
worries justified?
What was done
In exploring this hypothesis, the authors used "a coupled
model which comprises an ocean general circulation model, a
dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model and an energy-moisture
balance atmospheric model" to examine "the effect of
meridional moisture transport in the Southern Hemisphere
mid-latitudes on the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and
heat transport in the Atlantic."
What was learned
The authors purport to show that "the Atlantic MOC,
northward oceanic heat transport, and the associated air-sea heat
flux anomalies are all proportional to the southward moisture
transport from subtropical to subpolar regions in the Southern
Hemisphere."
What it means
In the words of the authors, "it has often been pointed out
that in a warmer climate, an intensified hydrological cycle would
weaken the MOC by transporting more moisture
northward." Their results, however, "suggest that
the intensified hydrological cycle could also tend to stabilize
the MOC by transporting more moisture southward." The
bottom line, as they thus remark, is that the various mechanisms
that have been proposed for controlling deep water formation in
the North Atlantic "remain controversial."
In view of these developments, it would appear to be way too
early to even think of concluding, as many climate alarmists do,
that there could soon be a warming-induced freezing of Europe of
the "rapid climate change" type.
Copyright © 2003. Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide
and Global Change
===========
(3) SOLAR FLARE 'REPRODUCED' IN LAB
BBC News Online, 11 November 2003
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3260985.stm
By Dr David Whitehouse
BBC News Online science editor
Scientists have simulated a solar flare in the lab, recreating
the super-heated cloud of electrically-charged gas seen on the
Sun known as a plasma.
It was part of an initiative to develop fusion power - the
nuclear energy that keeps the Sun shining.
The plasma in the lab behaved like a miniature version of a solar
flare.
Scientists hope they can create a flare at low energies in the
lab, to enable them to study the explosive events that take place
on the Sun's surface.
Magnetic bottle
The work was carried out at the Culham Science Centre near
Oxford, by scientists working on the Mega Amp Spherical Tokomak
(Mast) project.
A tokomak is a magnetic bottle designed to confine a plasma.
The tokomak was invented by the Russians. In it, two magnetic
fields are combined to hold the plasma.
The world's largest tokamak is called Jet, the Joint European
Torus. It is also at Culham.
Using Jet, scientists have heated plasma to 300 million degrees -
more than is needed to achieve fusion ignition. But magnetic
confinement is easier if the plasma is kept small.
Mast keeps the plasma in a tighter configuration that is more
energy efficient.
Solar flare secrets
The scientists were interested in a phenomenon called
edge-localised modes (ELM) - a particular instability that can
form in a plasma.
Understanding ELMs is important for the design of future fusion
reactors.
The researchers believe that when the plasma reaches a certain
critical instability, ELMs form.
They also realised that ELMs, like solar flares, are explosive
events, which can eject particles and energy.
Using Mast the researchers have carried out new measurements of
ELMs, obtaining unprecedented detailed images of filamentary
structures associated with them.
The filaments immediately reminded them of the huge plasma
structures that loop over the Sun's surface.
Culham's Andrew Kirk said: "The similarities were striking.
They looked like the filaments seen in detailed images of the
Sun."
Co-researcher Howard Wilson was interested in the size of the
filaments.
"Although Mast is only a few metres in size and the Sun over
a million kilometres in size, when the physics of the plasma is
taken into account the filaments seen in Mast and on the Sun are
roughly the same size when measured relative to the gas that
spawned them."
This means that the secrets of solar flares may be right in front
of the scientists.
Rob Akers of Culham told BBC News Online: "We may be seeing
a solar flare in miniature, taking place in the laboratory. Being
able to study it in detail will help us understand what's going
on at the Sun, where the plasma clouds are bigger and the
energies greater."
Copyright 2003, BBC
===========
(4) A CONTINUOUS 200-YEAR INSTRUMENTAL TEMPERATURE RECORD FROM
NORTHERN SWEDEN
CO2 Science Magazine, 12 November 2003
http://www.co2science.org/journal/2003/v6n46c3.htm
Reference
Klingbjer, P. and Moberg, A. 2003. A composite monthly
temperature record from Tornedalen in Northern Sweden, 1802-2002.
International Journal of Climatology 23: 1465-1494.
What was done
Working with "previously unexplored observational
temperature data for the period 1802-62 from Overtornea and Kalix
in the Tornedalen area in subarctic Sweden (~66°N),"
together with similar data from the nearby Haparanda weather
station, the authors developed "a continuous Tornedalen
temperature series" that stretches from 1802 to 2002.
What was learned
Over the two-century period of record, mean annual air
temperature rose by 1.97°C, with the greatest increase occurring
in winter (2.83°C) and the smallest increase in summer
(0.88°C). This warming, in the words of the authors,
"culminated in the 1930s," so that "the warmest
decade was the 1930s."
What it means
Throughout the period of the most significant greenhouse gas
buildup during the course of the industrialization of the world,
i.e., 1930 and onward, the Tornedalen temperature series
indicates there has been no net warming in that area of Northern
Sweden, just as there has been no net warming in most of the
United States over this period (see U.S. Climate Data on our
sidebar). Hence, these particular data provide no evidence for
any CO2-induced greenhouse warming, and they demonstrate there is
nothing unusual about the warming of the past quarter-century
that climate alarmists typically describe as being unprecedented
over the last two millennia.
Pretty much the same story is told by comparative data the
authors present for Vardo, Oulu, St Petersburg, Uppsala and
Helsinki: if the temperature trends of these five sites were
averaged together, they too would show little to no net warming
since the 1930s. Also, the Uppsala temperature series, which is
the longest of the lot, indicates it was equally as warm as it
has been recently back in the 1730s and 40s.
Copyright © 2003. Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide
and Global Change
============
(5) DESERTS: ARE THEY EXPANDING OR SHRINKING?
CO2 Science Magazine, 12 November 2003
http://www.co2science.org/subject/d/summaries/desertification.htm
Over two decades ago, when the atmosphere's CO2 concentration was
approximately 340 ppm (up from a pre-industrial value on the
order of 280 ppm), Idso (1982) stated in a small self-published
book (Carbon Dioxide: Friend or Foe?) that if the air's CO2
content continued to climb, it would ultimately enhance plant
growth and water use efficiency to the point that semi-arid lands
not then suitable for cultivation "could be brought into
profitable production," further stating that "the
deserts themselves could 'blossom as the rose'." A few years
later he advanced essentially the same thesis, this time in the
pages of Nature (Idso, 1986) in a brief paper entitled
"Industrial Age Leading to the Greening of the Earth."
Throughout most of the succeeding years, this optimistic view of
the ongoing rise in the air's CO2 content -- and the great good
it can do for humanity and nature alike -- was largely ignored,
as the world's climate alarmists took center stage with
headline-grabbing predictions of catastrophic CO2-induced global
warming. Now, however, it appears that enough has finally been
learned to take the positive view more seriously, in support of
which statement we note the following titles of some science
stories that have appeared of late in the popular press.
"Greenhouse Gas Might Green Up the Desert" declares a
ScienceDaily headline. "Missing Carbon Dioxide Greens Up the
Desert" chimes in the Israel National News. "Greenhouse
Gas Soaked Up by Forests Expanding into Deserts" proclaims
The Independent. And in a grudging acknowledgement of the
hard-to-ignore good news, the World News reports that
"Deserts Bloom in Bad Air."
What are the sources of this spate of positive stories? One that
cannot be ignored is the study of Grunzweig et al. (2003),
wherein the authors tell the tale of the Yatir forest -- a
2800-hectare stand of primarily Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis
Mill.) containing smaller amounts of Cupressus sempervirens and
other pine trees (mostly P. brutia) -- which was planted some 35
years ago at the edge of the Negev Desert in Israel.
An intriguing aspect of this particular forest -- which Grunzweig
et al. characterize as growing in poor soil of only 0.2- to
1.0-meter depth above chalk and limestone -- is that although it
is located in an arid region that receives less annual
precipitation than all of the other scores of global FluxNet
stations that measure exchanges of CO2 between terrestrial
ecosystems and the atmosphere (Baldocchi et al., 2001), its
annual net ecosystem CO2 exchange is just as high as that of many
high-latitude boreal forests and actually higher than that of
most temperate forests.
How can this possibly be? Grunzweig et al. note that the increase
in atmospheric CO2 concentration that has occurred since
pre-industrial times should have improved the water use
efficiency (WUE) of most of earth's plants by increasing the
ratio of CO2 fixed by photosynthesis to water lost via
evapotranspiration. That this hypothesis is indeed correct
has been demonstrated under controlled experimental conditions by
Leavitt et al. (2003) within the context of the still-ongoing
long-term atmospheric CO2 enrichment study of Idso and Kimball
(2001) on sour orange (Citrus aurantium L.) trees. It has
also been confirmed in nature by Feng (1999), who obtained
identical CO2-induced WUE responses for 23 groups of
naturally-occurring trees (scattered across western North
America) that were caused by the rise in the air's CO2 content
that occurred between 1800 and 1985. In commenting on his
remarkable findings, Feng says this phenomenon "would have
caused natural trees in arid environments to grow more rapidly,
acting as a carbon sink for anthropogenic CO2," which is
exactly what Grunzweig et al. have demonstrated to be happening
in the Yatir forest on the edge of the Negev Desert. In
addition, they report that "reducing water loss in arid
regions improves soil moisture conditions, decreases water stress
and extends water availability," which "can indirectly
increase carbon sequestration by influencing plant distribution,
survival and expansion into water-limited environments."
Much the same conclusions may be derived from the study of
Grunzweig and Korner (2001), who constructed model grasslands
representative of the Negev of Israel and placed them in growth
chambers maintained at atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 280, 440
and 600 ppm for a period of five months. They found that
the elevated CO2 treatments reduced rates of evapotranspiration
and increased soil moisture contents in the communities exposed
to elevated CO2. Between two periods of imposed drought,
for example, soil moisture was 22 and 27% higher in communities
exposed to 440 and 600 ppm CO2, respectively, than it was in
control communities exposed to pre-industrial levels of
atmospheric CO2. These increases in soil moisture content
likely contributed to peak ecosystem CO2 uptake rates that were
21 and 31% greater at 400 and 600 ppm CO2 than they were at 280
ppm CO2. In addition, atmospheric CO2 enrichment had no
effect on nighttime respiratory carbon losses from the
ecosystems. Thus, these model semi-arid grasslands were
clearly acting as carbon sinks under CO2-enriched
conditions. In fact, the elevated CO2 increased total
community biomass by 14% over that produced by the communities
exposed to the subambient CO2 concentration. Also, when the
total biomass produced was related to the total amount of water
lost via evapotranspiration, the communities grown at atmospheric
CO2 concentrations of 440 and 600 ppm exhibited CO2-induced
increases in water-use efficiency that were 17 and 28% higher,
respectively, than those displayed by the control communities
exposed to air of 280 ppm CO2.
That these phenomena are indeed widespread and operative in the
real world is suggested by a number of observational studies,
beginning with that of Nicholson et al. (1998), who used
satellite images of the Central and Western Sahel from 1980 to
1995 to determine the extent of purported desertification in this
region. In addition, rain-use efficiency (RUE), which
relates plant productivity to rainfall, was calculated to
determine if the biological productivity of the area was affected
by factors other than drought. The scientists reported
finding no overall expansion of deserts during their 16-year
study, and no decrease in RUE, although vegetation did expand and
contract somewhat in response to periods of relatively more or
less rainfall. Hence, neither human activities nor climatic
changes in this huge arid region caused massive desertification
of the type that was highly hyped by the United Nations in the
1970s.
In a second such study, Prince et al. (1998) also used satellite
images and RUE to map the occurrence and severity of
desertification, but they did so for the entire Sahel from 1982
to 1990. They too could find no evidence of widespread
desertification, and they determined that RUE did not decline
during their 9-year investigation. In fact, they discovered
a small but steady rise in RUE for the Sahel as a whole,
suggesting that plant productivity there had increased over the
time of their study.
A third study of note is that of Eklundh and Olsson (2003), who
analyzed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from
the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer that were
obtained over the African Sahel for the period 1982-2000.
As they describe their findings, "strong positive change in
NDVI occurred in about 22% of the area, and weak positive change
in 60% of the area," while "weak negative change
occurred in 17% of the area, and strong negative change in 0.6%
of the area." They also report that "integrated
NDVI has increased by about 80% in the areas with strong positive
change," while in areas with weak negative change,
"integrated NDVI has decreased on average by
13%." The primary story told by these data, therefore,
is one of strong positive trends in NDVI for large areas of the
African Sahel over the last two decades of the 20th century; and
Eklundh and Olsson conclude that the "increased vegetation,
as suggested by the observed NDVI trend, could be part of the
proposed tropical sink of carbon."
Finally, with respect to the climate-alarmist claim that
desertification will intensify as a consequence of CO2-induced
global warming, we refer to the study of Nicholson (2001), who
reviews what is known about precipitation changes in Africa over
the past two centuries, much of which work she herself was
instrumental in conducting. "The most significant
climatic change that has occurred," in her words, "has
been a long-term reduction in rainfall in the semi-arid regions
of West Africa," which has been "on the order of 20 to
40% in parts of the Sahel." There have been, she says,
"three decades of protracted aridity," and "nearly
all of Africa has been affected ... particularly since the
1980s." However, she goes on to note that "the
rainfall conditions over Africa during the last 2 to 3 decades
are not unprecedented," and that "a similar dry episode
prevailed during most of the first half [our italics] of the 19th
century."
Continuing, Nicholson says "the 3 decades of dry conditions
evidenced in the Sahel are not in themselves evidence of
irreversible global change." And especially, we would
add, they are certainly not evidence of global warming-induced
change. Why not (to both points)? Because a longer
historical perspective of the type we are constantly striving to
obtain clearly indicates, in the first instance, that an even
longer period of similar dry conditions occurred between 1800 and
1850. And in the second instance, this remarkable dry
period occurred when the earth was still in the icy grip of the
Little Ice Age, a period of cold that is without precedent in at
least the last 6500 years ... even in Africa [see our Journal
Review of the work of Lee-Thorp et al. (2001)]. Hence,
there is no reason to think that the past two- to three-decade
Sahelian drought is in any way unusual or that it was caused by
the putative higher temperatures of that period. Simply
put, like many other things, droughts happen.
As ever more data are thus obtained from various parts of the
world [see Greening of the Earth (Summary) for observations from
many non-arid regions of the planet], it is becoming ever more
evident that the CO2-induced reverse desertification theory of
Idso (1982, 1986) is receiving ever more support in the way of
real-world observations. So what can we expect to see in
the future?
One example of likely change is provided by Cheddadi et al.
(2001), who apply what is known about these matters to lands
bordering the Mediterranean Sea. Specifically, they employ
a standard biogeochemical model (BIOME3) - which uses monthly
temperature and precipitation data, certain soil characteristics,
cloudiness and atmospheric CO2 concentration as inputs - to
simulate the responses of the various biomes of the region to
changes in both climate (temperature and precipitation) and the
air's CO2 content.
Cheddadi et al.'s first step was to validate the model for two
test periods: the present and 6000 years before present
(BP). Recent instrumental records provided actual
atmospheric CO2, temperature and precipitation data for the
present period; while pollen data were used to reconstruct
monthly temperature and precipitation values for 6000 years BP,
and ice core records were used to determine the atmospheric CO2
concentration of that earlier epoch. These efforts
suggested that winter temperatures 6000 years ago were about 2°C
cooler than they are now, that annual rainfall was approximately
200 mm less than today, and that the air's CO2 concentration
averaged 280 ppm, which is considerably less than the value of
345 ppm the authors used to represent the present, i.e., the
mid-point of the period used for calculating 30-year climate
normals at the time they wrote their paper. Applying the
model to these two sets of conditions, they demonstrated that
"BIOME3 can be used to simulate ... the vegetation
distribution under ... different climate and [CO2] conditions
than today," where [CO2] is the abbreviation they use to
represent "atmospheric CO2 concentration."
Cheddadi et al.'s next step was to use their validated model to
explore the vegetative consequences of an increase in
anthropogenic CO2 emissions that pushes the air's CO2
concentration to a value of 500 ppm and its mean annual
temperature to a value 2°C higher than today's mean value.
The basic response of the vegetation to this change in
environmental conditions was "a substantial southward shift
of Mediterranean vegetation and a spread of evergreen and conifer
forests in the northern Mediterranean."
More specifically, in the words of the authors, "when
precipitation is maintained at its present-day level, an
evergreen forest spreads in the eastern Mediterranean and a
conifer forest in Turkey." Current xerophytic
woodlands in this scenario become "restricted to southern
Spain and southern Italy and they no longer occur in southern
France." In northwest Africa, on the other hand,
"Mediterranean xerophytic vegetation occupies a more
extensive territory than today and the arid steppe/desert
boundary shifts southward," as each vegetation zone becomes
significantly more verdant than it is currently.
What is the basis for these positive developments? The
authors say "the replacement of xerophytic woodlands by
evergreen and conifer forests could be explained by the
enhancement of photosynthesis due to the increase of
[CO2]." Likewise, they note that "under a high
[CO2] stomata will be much less open which will lead to a reduced
evapotranspiration and lower water loss, both for C3 and C4
plants," adding that "such mechanisms may help plants
to resist long-lasting drought periods that characterize the
Mediterranean climate."
Contrary to what is often predicted for much of the world's
moisture-challenged lands, therefore, Cheddadi et al. were able
to report that "an increase of [CO2], jointly with an
increase of ca. 2°C in annual temperature would not lead to
desertification on any part of the Mediterranean unless annual
precipitation decreased drastically," where they define a
drastic decrease as a decline of 30% or more. Equally important
in this context is the fact that Hennessy et al. (1997) have
indicated that a doubling of the air's CO2 content would in all
likelihood lead to a 5 to 10% increase in annual precipitation at
Mediterranean latitudes, which is also what is predicted for most
of the rest of the world. Hence, the results of Cheddadi et al.'s
study are likely very conservative, with the true vegetative
response being even better than the good-news results they
report, even when utilizing what we believe to be
erroneously-inflated global warming predictions.
So how good could things get? For perhaps the ultimate
positive response, see our Editorial of 6 Feb 2002.
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Y., Meyers, T., Munger, W., Oechel, W., Paw U, K.T., Pilegaard,
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Cheddadi, R., Guiot, J. and Jolly, D. 2001. The
Mediterranean vegetation: what if the atmospheric CO2
increased? Landscape Ecology 16: 667-675.
Eklundh, L. and Olssson, L. 2003. Vegetation index
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Grunzweig, J.M., Lin, T., Rotenberg, E., Schwartz, A. and Yakir,
D. 2003. Carbon sequestration in arid-land
forest. Global Change Biology 9: 791-799.
Hennessy, K.J., Gregory, J.M. and Mitchell, J.F.B.
1997. Changes in daily precipitation under enhanced
greenhouse conditions. Climate Dynamics 13: 667-680.
Idso, S.B. 1982. Carbon Dioxide: Friend or Foe?
IBR Press, Tempe, Arizona, USA.
Idso, S.B. 1986. Industrial age leading to the
greening of the Earth? Nature 320: 22.
Idso, S.B. and Kimball, B.A. 2001. CO2 enrichment of
sour orange trees: 13 years and counting. Environmental and
Experimental Botany 46: 147-153.
Leavitt, S.W., Idso, S.B., Kimball, B.A., Burns, J.M., Sinha, A.
and Stott, L. 2003. The effect of long-term
atmospheric CO2 enrichment on the intrinsic water-use efficiency
of sour orange trees. Chemosphere 50: 217-222.
Nicholson, S.E. 2001. Climatic and environmental
change in Africa during the last two centuries. Climate
Research 17: 123-144.
Nicholson, S.E., Tucker, C.J. and Ba, M.B. 1998.
Desertification, drought, and surface vegetation: An example from
the West African Sahel. Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society 79: 815-829.
Prince, S.D., Brown De Colstoun, E. and Kravitz, L.L.
1998. Evidence from rain-use efficiencies does not indicate
extensive Sahelian desertification. Global Change Biology
4: 359-374.
Copyright © 2003. Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide
and Global Change
=========== ABSTRACTS FROM THE INTERNATIONAL LUNAR CONFERENCE
2003 ==========
(6) ON ENERGY-ASTRONOMICAL-LASER SPACE BASE FOR THE
ASTEROID-COMET HAZARD MITIGATION
Viacheslav V. Ivashkin
http://www.spaceagepub.com/pdfs/Ivashkin_3.pdf
M.V. Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics
Miusskaya Sq. 4, Moscow, 125047, Russia
Tel.: 7-095-2507826; Fax: 7-095-9720737; E-mail: ivashkin@spp.Keldysh.ru
A lunar base to mitigate the asteroid-comet hazard for the Earth
is investigated. The base
is proposed to consist of three stations. First, this is an
energy station. This station
transforms the solar energy into the electric one, which is used
to put into operation an
astronomical observatory and a laser station. The observatory
telescopes can detect near-Earth
objects (NEOs) and discover an object, which impacts the Earth
during its motion and can lead
to the Earth catastrophe, according to (S. Isobe, 1996). In this
case, the laser station is
proposed to give a powerful laser effect on that object to
deflect or destroy it. There are
analyzed the NEO's orbit correction and the NEO destruction via
to this laser effect in the
Earth-Moon vicinity. The electric power of the energy station
required and the area of solar
panels at the energy station are evaluated. Possibility to use
new Earth-to-Moon trajectories
with temporary capture by the Moon is shown for construction of
the lunar base. Other space
places to organize that space base are also analyzed. Merits and
demerits of the laser effect
are discussed. Conclusion is made that the international
cooperation in designing, creation and
operation of this space base is necessary. The study is supported
with the Russian Foundation
for the Basic Studies (Grant No. 01-01-00133) and the Harbin
Institute of Technology, China.
Key words: Space Base; Asteroid-Comet Hazard.
==============
(7) THE MOON AS A SOLAR POWER SATELLITE
Gerald Falbel, Optical Energy Technologies Inc. Stamford, CT
http://www.spaceagepub.com/pdfs/Falbel.pdf
Abstract
This paper discusses a modified version of the Satellite Solar
Power System, (SPS), originally
proposed in 1968 by Dr. Peter Glaser of MIT, as a series of
large, photovoltaic solar collector
satellites orbiting at geosynchronous (22,500 mile) altitude. The
solar energy collected would
be beamed to the earth surface 24 hours a day, using microwave
energy (which can pass through
cloud cover). This system was studied extensively by several
large aerospace companies under
the joint sponsorship of the D.O.E and NASA between 1977 and
1980. The proposed modifications
to this concept presented herein uses the moon as the
"satellite". This allows a much larger
system to be built at lower cost, because it allows the use of
materials making up the lunar
surface to be used to construct the solar power system, thereby
eliminating the requirement
for lifting them up from the earth. In addition, this approach
results in a much greater ease
of assembly because of the gravity of the moon. Two
configurations of such a system are
described:
1. A series of photovoltaic collectors situated near the lunar
poles, which can generate a
net electrical energy on the earth of 60 billion Kwatt-hours per
year.
2. A series of concentrating trough collectors using lunar
gravity to shape a catenary
cylindrical concentrator, driving Stirling Cycle electric
generators, situated at the lunar
equator, which can generate a net electrical energy on the earth
of greater than 5.3 trillion
Kwatt-hours per year.
Both systems are described in detail, and their advantages and
disadvantages relative to the
original geosysnchronous SPS are discussed. The expected
performance of these systems is
analyzed based upon direct extrapolations from the analyses
presented in the 1980 D.O.E. and
NASA study reports, combined with recent performance measurements
obtained with Stirling Cycle
electric generators by NASA Lewis Research Center and others. A
method of funding this proposed
project by the U.S. Government is also discussed which would
cause no increase in any current
U.S. taxes. Furthermore, by distributing the electrical energy
generated by this system on to
existing electrical power grids as a "World TVA", the
receipts from electrical energy consumers
at the current rate of 10 cents per Kwatt-hour could be used to
retire the U.S. National Debt,
and/or reduce income taxes. Finally, the implementation of such a
system, which could be
accomplished within a period of less than 10 years, would reduce
the world emission of
greenhouse gases, not to the Kyoto-desired level of 1990, but to
the level of 1890.
===========
(8) ELECTRIC POWER DEVELOPMENT ON THE MOON FROM IN-SITU LUNAR
RESOURCES
Alex Ignatiev, Alexandre Freundlich, and Charles Horton
http://www.spaceagepub.com/pdfs/Ignatiev.pdf
Texas Center for Superconductivity and Advanced Materials
University of Houston
Houston, TX 77204 USA
Abstract: The long-term exploration and colonization of the solar
system for scientific research
and commercial interests depends critically on the availability
of electrical energy. In
addition, the long-term potential for humans to settle space
requires self-sufficiency, and
therefore, self-sustaining electrical power systems. This can be
attained on the Moon by
utilizing the indigenous resources present there through the
fabrication of solar cells using
thin film growth technology and the vacuum environment of the
Moon. Thin film solar cells will be
fabricated directly on the surface of the Moon through the
transport to the Moon of only the
tools needed to fabricate the cells and not the transport of the
vast arrays of cells themselves.
The solar cells will then be grown by thin film vacuum deposition
on the prepared regolith of the
lunar surface. This will be undertaken by the deployment of a
~200kg crawler on the surface of
the Moon with the capabilities of initial preparation of the
lunar regolith by local melting
under concentrated solar irradiation for use as a substrate. This
is followed by evaporation of
the appropriate semiconductor material for the solar cell
structure, and then vacuum deposition
of metallic contacts and interconnects thus fully comprising
continuous layout of solar cells on
the lunar surface. This design will allow for the emplacement of
a lunar electric power system
that can reach 1 MW in several years of crawler operation.
Initial growth of the thin film solar
cells will proceed with raw materials brought from Earth. These
first cells can be made more
directly by fabrication from CdS/CdSe (as compared to silicon).
With an initial installation of
~100 kW capacity (6 months of operation) a second facility, a
Regolith Processing Facility, can
then be emplaced on the Moon which will extract the needed raw
materials from lunar regolith so
as to feed the solar cell crawler for the fabrication of silicon
solar cells by using the
electrical power generated by the initial cell fabrication. This
unique approach for the
emplacement of an electric power system on the Moon would require
the transportation of a much
smaller mass of equipment to the Moon than would otherwise be
required to install a power system
brought to the Moon, and would result in a power system that was
repairable/replaceable through
the simple fabrication of more solar cells.
============
(9) COMPACT ULTRA LIGHT NUCLEAR ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEMS FOR FUTURE
MOON BASES AND COLONIES
James Powell, George, Maise, and John Paniagua
http://www.spaceagepub.com/pdfs/Powell_1.pdf
Plus Ultra Technologies
PO Box 547
Shoreham, NY 11786
Phone/Fax: (631) 744-5707
e-mail: maise@optonline.net
Future bases and colonies on the Moon will require large amounts
of electric power for
life support, processing in-situ resources, recycling scarce
materials, transport fuels and
energy, and many other uses. Current US per capita energy usage
is approximately 10 kilowatts,
counting all energy inputs, including coal, oil, natural gas,
nuclear, hydro, solar, biomass,
etc. Per capita demand on the Moon will be much higher, at least
100 kilowatts per person.
The corresponding electric power for a lunar base of 100 persons
would then be at least
10 megawatts(e), and 100 megawatts for a lunar colony of 1000
persons. The electric power would
be used to extract oxygen and nitrogen from Moon rocks; together
with aluminum, iron and other
metals and non-metals; to recycle and reconstruct scarce
materials like water and hydrocarbons;
and to provide heat and light for life support and agriculture.
Nuclear electric power systems
are attractive because in contrast to solar photo voltaics, they
are not affected by variations
in solar illumination during the lunar cycle, and not sensitive
to micro meteorite bombardment
and accumulations of lunar dust. The SUSEE (Space Nuclear Steam
Electric Energy) system is a
near term, compact, lightweight, space, nuclear electric system
that is based on highly,
reliable commercial water/steam reactor technology that has
operated for many years. The SUSEE
reactor uses a cermet fuel form similar to that presently used in
DOD reactors, in which micro
size fully enriched UO2 particles are held in a metal matrix
(e.g., zirconium or stainless
steel). Very high burnups and long lifetimes are achieved using
cermet fuel with virtually zero
fission product release. Using standard steam conditions (e.g.,
1000 psi and 1000 F) and
conventional steam turbines, a thermal electric efficiency of 25%
is achieved with a single
stage expansion. The condenser pressure in SUSEE is high (e.g.,
~2 atm, compared to ~0.1 atm
in conventional power plants) so as to enable a high radiator
temperature (~400 K) for efficient
thermal rejection to space. The SUSEE radiator is constructed
using lightweight flexible aluminum
strips with internal grooved channels in which the exhaust steam
condenses to water, for return
to the reactor. A complete 10 megawatt(e) system (reactor,
turbogenerator, piping, pumps and
radiator) would weigh about 20 tons, a factor 10 lighter than
high temperature gas cooled space
nuclear electric systems. The radiator can be rolled up in a
compact bundle to be deployed on
the lunar surface - the total radiator for a 10 megawatt(e)
system would occupy a 150 meter x
150 meter area. The SUSEE nuclear electric system is described in
detail, including its
construction, installation, and operation on the lunar surface.
Potential lunar applications
that would use large amounts of electric power are described,
including aluminum/oxygen
propellant, fuel cells for surface rovers, smelting of ores for
recovery of oxygen and metals,
etc. The SUSEE system requires only modest development and can be
quickly ready for
implementation at lunar bases and colonies.
===========
(10) THE FUTURE OF LUNAR TOURISM
Patrick Collins
http://www.spaceagepub.com/pdfs/Collins.pdf
Professor, Azabu University
1-17-71 Fuchinobe, Sagamihara City, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan
229-8501
patrick.collins@spacefuture.,com
Tel/fax: (81) 42769-2319
Key Words: Space tourism, Lunar tourism, Space commercialisation
Abstract
Travel to and from the lunar surface has been known to be
feasible since it was first
achieved 34 years ago. Since that time there has been enormous
progress in related
engineering fields such as rocket propulsion, materials and
avionics, and about $1
billion has been spent on lunar science and engineering research.
Consequently there
are no fundamental technical problems facing the development of
lunar tourism - only
business and investment problems. The outstanding problem is to
reduce the cost of launch to
low Earth orbit. Recently there has been major progress towards
overturning the myth that
launch costs are high because of physical limits. Scaled
Composites' vehicle currently in
test-flight will perform sub-orbital flights at 1/1,000 of the
cost of Alan Shepard's similar
flight in 1961. This activity could have started 30 years ago if
space agencies had had economic
rather than political objectives. A further encouraging factor is
that the demand for space
tourism seems potentially limitless. Starting with sub-orbital
flights and growing through
orbital activities, travel to the Moon will offer further unique
attractions. In every human
culture there is immense interest in the Moon arising from
millennia of myths. In addition,
bird-like flying sports, described by Robert Heinlein, will
become another powerful demand
factor. Round-trips of 1 to 2 weeks are very convenient for
travel companies; and the radiation
environment will permit visitors a few days of surface activity.
Lastly the paper discusses
economic aspects of lunar tourism, including the benefits it will
have for those on Earth.
Lunar economic development based on tourism will have much in
common with the economic
development of Hawaii: starting from the fact that many people
spontaneously want to visit,
companies will invest to sell a growing range of services to ever
more customers, thereby
creating a major new industry.
========== OPINION ==========
(11) SCIENCE JOURNALISM VS SCIENCE ELITISM
The New York Times, 11 November 2003
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/11/science/11EXPL.html
ROUSING SCIENCE OUT OF THE LAB AND INTO THE LIMELIGHT
By CORNELIA DEAN
Last summer, the pollster Daniel Yankelovich reported what might
seem a strange finding:
scientists are distressed by the media's insistence on presenting
"both sides."
At first, I thought I knew what he was getting at in his paper,
which appeared in Issues in
Science and Technology, a publication of the National Academy of
Sciences. From time to time,
scientists have called me to complain that one or another of our
articles was "wrong," in that
it quoted (accurately) someone with whom they disagreed.
But this was not exactly the situation the scientists were
complaining about. All too often,
Mr. Yankelovich wrote, scientists who talk to reporters
"find themselves pitted in the media
against some contrarian, crank or shill who is on hand to provide
`proper balance.' " The
scientists who hold this view have put their finger on an
important problem. In striving to
be "objective," journalists try to tell all sides of
the story. But it is not always easy for
us to tell when a science story really has more than one side -
or to know who must be heeded
and who can safely be ignored. When we cast too wide a net in
search of balance, we can end up
painting situations as more complicated or confusing than they
actually are.
For example, mainstream scientists who believe that human
activities like the burning of fossil
fuels are contributing to potentially disastrous climate change
say we give too much space to
climate dissidents - those who argue that nothing is changing, or
if it is that people are not
causing it, and anyway the changes will be beneficial, or that if
they aren't, technological
genius will engineer a fix.
By now, it seems that the mainstream view prevails almost
everywhere. The dissidents are widely regarded as outliers whose
opinions are notable more for the cover they give politicians
than their scientific rigor. But there are plenty of responsible
people who still argue their case. And as journalists we feel
obliged to report their arguments, especially since one who
accepts those arguments is the president of the United States.
In any event, unless you are an expert, differentiating between
the genius and the crank -
or even between the mainstream and the outlier - may not be easy.
As with other issues that
plague scientists and journalists, we journalists cannot solve
this problem ourselves. We
will need the help of scientists. Will we get it?
I hope so, but a lot will have to change to make it happen.
Relations between scientists
and journalists are often adversarial.
Last month, I was a panelist at a meeting of the Pew marine
fellows, eminent fisheries and
ocean scientists whose work is supported by the Pew Charitable
Trusts. Nancy Baron, a zoologist
and science writer who works with the fellows, organized the
panel as part of her longstanding
effort to help scientists better communicate their work and its
importance to the wider world.
As researchers have in the past, scientists at this meeting told
Ms. Baron they had a simple
solution to their problems with reporters. "I don't take
their phone calls" was a common
refrain.
Their unwillingness to talk to us is not mysterious. Far too
often, talking to reporters is
a no-win proposition for scientists. They communicate their
findings in learned treatises
published in peer-reviewed journals, not in lay-language news
reports. Decisions on whether
they will be given tenure, or promoted or awarded research grants
do not normally hang on
what appears in the public prints. If they are in the newspaper
or on television or radio
too much - and their colleagues may set that bar rather low -
they become known as publicity
hounds or polemicists who have abandoned the purity of the
laboratory for a life of celebrity.
And that's if things go well. All too often, they find themselves
quoted in a report that
is shoddy, inaccurate or overhyped. Pushy, unprincipled, ignorant
and shallow - those were
some of the milder epithets the scientists at the Pew meeting
applied to me and my fellow
practitioners.
But not all the blame is ours. Yes, we occasionally get things
wrong. Even here at The Times,
which has unrivaled resources for covering science, we struggle
to keep up with mushrooming
developments in fields becoming ever more specialized. We need
scientists' help to get it
right. Sometimes even we don't get that help, and far too often
our colleagues at other news
outlets don't get it. Sometimes the scientist is just unable or
reluctant to tell the story
in words a lay audience can understand.
As a result, Ms. Baron told the Pew fellows, journalists regard
scientists as elitist, unable
to talk except in jargon, obsessed with trivial details, isolated
in ivory towers and unwilling
to take a stand on matters of public importance.
This last point is by far the most important because it is where
science reporting stops being
the "gee whiz" leavening in a heavy loaf of serious
news reports and starts helping readers
or listeners or viewers come to their own conclusions about the
increasing number of issues -
global warming, reproductive rights, missile technology - that
hinge on science.
It is where the question of "balance" is most important
and where journalists most need
scientists to stop hiding in thickets of irrelevant detail and
identify the bottom line.
In other words, journalists need scientists who are citizens as
well as researchers.
A year ago, at another of the Pew panels organized by Ms. Baron,
a scientist took me to task
for The Times's coverage of creationism. The newspaper had
followed the debate over whether
creationism should be included in the Kansas public school
curriculum, and had also written
about the version of the doctrine called "intelligent
design." In doing so, the researcher
argued, we were only giving credence to ideas that had nothing to
do with science.
My reply was, and is, twofold. First, when state officials
seriously consider basing public
school biology instruction on the Bible, it's news we have to
cover. Second, where were the
scientists? If the idea is so outrageous, where was their
outrage? We hardly heard it, except
in conversations among themselves.
"Science has reached greater heights of sophistication and
productivity," Mr. Yankelovich
wrote in his summer paper, but scientists' influence in public
debates is actually shrinking.
As a result, he said, "the gap between science and public
life has grown ever larger and more
dangerous, to an extent that now poses a serious threat to our
future."
Journalists can help narrow that gap. But only if scientists
raise their voices in the nation's
public debates.
Cornelia Dean, a former science editor of The New York Times, is
on leave as a fellow at the Shorenstein Center at Harvard.
Copyright 2003, The New York Times
============= LETTERS =============
(12) APOLLO LESSONS
Oliver K. Manuel <oess@umr.edu>
Dear Benny,
You quote Dr. Paul D. Spudis as telling the SUBCOMMITTEE ON
SCIENCE,
TECHNOLOGY AND SPACE OF THE SENATE COMMERCE, SCIENCE, AND
TRANSPORTATION COMMITTEE that:
"Of all the scientific benefits of Apollo, appreciation of
the importance
of impact, or the collision of solid bodies, in planetary
evolution must
rank highest."
Unfortunately NASA does not appreciate that the Apollo missions
gave
us compelling evidence that mass separation enriches lighter
elements
at the Sun's surface [See "The Sun's Origin, Composition and
Source
of Energy", 32nd Lunar & Planetary Science Conference,
Abstract
#1041, Houston, TX, March 12-16, 2001]
http://www.umr.edu/~om/lpsc.prn.pdf
http://www.umr.edu/~om/lpsc.ps
The Sun accounts for over 99.8% of the solar system's mass.
Learning
that the Sun is not made of the lightest element may be as
important
as increasing our appreciation for the role of impacts in
planetary
evolution.
With kind regards,
Oliver K. Manuel
================
(13) SEEKING NEO ARTWORK
Jim Oberg <joberg@houston.rr.com>
Benny,
I'm looking for artist concepts of various proposed techniques
for
altering asteroid orbits, whether for impact avoidance, for
resource
exploitation, for deliberate bombardment (as weaponry or
terraforming tools
or other motivations), or any other reason. I need to know the
copyright
status of all such artwork, possibly for publication. Thanks!
Jim Oberg
www.jamesoberg.com
Galveston County, Texas
==========
(14) AND FINALLY: SPACEDEV AUCTIONING MICROSATELLITE MISSION ON
EBAY
SpaceDev <PR@spacedev.com>
SpaceDev (OTCBB: SPDV) is auctioning a world exclusive private
space mission on eBay. This first of its kind eBay auction is
being listed for the ten-day period of 8:00 PM (PST) Monday,
November 10, through 8:00 PM (PST) Thursday, November 20th.
The SpaceDev space mission auction is at:
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=2572382454&category=45046&rd=1
Most earth orbiting small satellite missions can cost $25 million
or more, not including the launch. To demonstrate the
affordability of private space missions, SpaceDev has posted a
"Buy it Now" price of $9.5 million. The high bidder
will win a spacecraft based on SpaceDev's Maneuvering and orbit
Transfer Vehicle (MTV(tm)).
"I founded SpaceDev to accelerate the development of space,
to get the public involved in space and to have fun," said
Jim Benson, SpaceDev founder and CEO. "With our successful
launch and operation of CHIPSat earlier this year, and after
being competitively selected to provide safe hybrid rocket
propulsion for manned space flight, we are offering this unique
space mission to the public."
The high bidder has the right to supply his or her own payload,
to name the SpaceDev MTV(tm) satellite and to name the mission.
The winning bidder, which could be an individual, company or
government agency, can also be involved in the mission design,
satellite assembly and testing (including putting small personal
items on the spacecraft), can attend the launch, and can
participate in on-orbit operations.
The nominal payload is a camera that provides a view of the
launch separation on-orbit, a buyer-controlled camera on the
spacecraft looking back down on earth and into space 24 hours a
day, or the buyer can supply a SpaceDev-approved payload.
The microsatellite camera can be operated over the Internet by
the winning bidder, similar to SpaceDev's CHIPSat microsat, which
is the world's first orbiting node on the Internet. Specific
terms are included in the eBay auction listing. Search eBay for
"SpaceDev."
About SpaceDev
SpaceDev is a publicly traded company that creates and sells
affordable and innovative space products and services to
government and commercial enterprises. SpaceDev's offering
includes the design, manufacture, marketing and operation of
sophisticated micro- and nano- satellites, hybrid rocket-based
orbital Maneuvering and orbital Transfer Vehicles (MTVs), as well
as safe sub-orbital and orbital hybrid rocket-based propulsion
systems. For more information, visit www.spacedev.com.
-----------
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