PLEASE NOTE:
*
CCNet 117/2000 - 14 November 2000
---------------------------------
"Only a day after the original announcement, the threat from
SG344
was downgraded and the public's confidence was played again. It
should be
no surprise that the major press and majority of the public do
not take
the asteroid threat seriously. After the same mistake in 1998
with
asteroid 1997 XF11, a new set of guidelines was implemented to
stop this
kind of embarrassment. These rules were supposedly followed for
this
new asteroid, but they obviously remain inadequate. The threat
was
downgraded after the original data, previously studied, was
reanalyzed. Do
the new guidelines specifically state that the data needs to be
double or triple checked before such an announcement? If so, how
could this
happen again? How many times can NASA and Co. cry wolf before all
public
confidence corrodes?"
-- Steve Russell, 12 November 2000
"In 1995 NASA promised Congress that it would have all
potentially
dangerous objects in space identified by 2005. But a report
released in September by a British task force discloses that the
space
agency is years behind schedule, largely because it has spent
only $2
million a year on the project. British Prime Minister Tony Blair
and the
European Space Agency are now considering funding the task
force's key
recommendation: building the world's first [large, BJP] telescope
dedicated to finding threatening comets and asteroids. [...] As
the lead
author of the British report, former European Space Agency
Chairman Harry
Atkinson, explains, "The risk of cataclysmic asteroid
impacts is very small.
A one- kilometer asteroid arrives on average every 100,000 years.
But if
that was the risk of an accident in a nuclear power station, we
would spend a lot of money to reduce the risk."
-- Los Angeles Times, 11 November 2000
(1) ASTEROIDS - NASA'S FIRE OF FALLACIES AND AUSTRALIA'S
ATROCIOUS ACTIONS
Your World USA, November 12, 2000
(2) SOMETIMES THE SKY DOES FALL
The Los Angeles Times, 11 November 2000
(3) 10 DAYS AFTER THE ALL-CLEAR, INDIA'S MEDIA ISSUE ASTEROID
ALARM
The Times of India, 14 November 2000
(4) "ASTRONOMERS SAY ASTEROID COULD STRIKE EARTH IN
2030"
The Indian Express, 14 November 2000
(5) ASTRONOMERS PREDICT ASTEROID ECLIPSE
Ron Baalke <baalke@jpl.nasa.gov>
(6) EAST-ASIAN ARCHAEO-ASTRONOMY
David W. Pankenier <dwp0@Lehigh.EDU>
(8) LEONID METEORS YIELD RICH ASTROBIOLOGY RESEARCH RESULTS
Ron Baalke <baalke@zagami.jpl.nasa.gov>
(9) HERE COMES THE LEONIDS
Thursday's Classroom for Nov. 13, 2000
(10) METEOROIDS 2001: FIRST ANNOUNCEMENT
Duncan Steel <D.I.Steel@salford.ac.uk>
(11) NAMING THINGS
Duncan Steel <D.I.Steel@salford.ac.uk>
(12) CCNet SHOULD COVER ANY NATURAL HAZARD THAT MIGHT EFFECT
CIVILISATION
Malcolm Miller <stellar2@cyberone.com.au>
(13) AND FINALLY, THE TRUTH IS OUT: MERCURY TO BLAME FOR U.S.
PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION HICCUPS
The Los Angeles Times, 13 November 2000
===========
(1) ASTEROIDS - NASA'S FIRE OF FALLACIES AND AUSTRALIA'S
ATROCIOUS ACTIONS
From Your World USA, November 12, 2000
http://www.yowusa.com/Archive/November2000/Asteroids/asteroids.htm
By Steve Russell
The world has known for some time that the Earth is under a
constant threat
from passing asteroids. What is not commonly known, or fully
understood, is
the seriousness of this threat. The one organization that
does understand
the threat is NASA, and they are the ones fueling
the public fire of fallacy. The only time the major media
networks cover the
issue, is after they have passed us by so they can report the
good news that
we are all still safe and NASA is doing a good job. What is not
commonly
reported, is that we are only tracking about 10% of potential
Near Earth
Objects (NEO's), and the critical deficiency in the number search
programs.
Since 1996 when Australia's current Prime Minister John Howard,
stuck his
head in the proverbial sand and scrapped the best tracking
program in the
Southern Hemisphere, the world has been in serious danger.
Asteroids with an Earth Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance
(MOID) of 0.05
AU or less, are generally considered as Potentially Hazardous
Asteroids
(PHA's). To put this in perspective, the Moon is 0.0025 AU from
Earth, or 1
Lunar Distance.
We are discovering asteroids at an increasing rate with distances
far too
close for comfort. Asteroid 2000 UK11, measuring 25-80
meters, passed Earth
on November 1 2000 at just 4 lunar distances. NASA recently
admitted that it
was only discovered one week before it missed
us! The 250-meter wide 2000 UK11 asteroid passed Earth on
November 7 2000 at
only 6.1 lunar distances. It was only discovered on October 25
2000 by Mitts
LINEAR search program.
Toutatis Threats
Toutatis, named after a Celtic god, is one of the largest known
PHA's and
has an orbit that is inclined less than half-a-degree from
Earth's. This
means that when it comes close to Earth, there is little chance
it will pass
above or below us, it remains relatively level with Earth.
Another remarkable and troubling characteristic of Toutatis is
its
extraordinarily complex spin patterns. The vast majorities of
asteroids, and
every planet, rotate around a single pole. However,
Toutatis rotates around
two axes. It spins around one with a period of 5.4 Earth-days and
the other
once every 7.3 days. The result is an asteroid that travels
through space
tumbling like a badly thrown football.
On December 1992, the 5km long Toutatis made a close approach to
Earth at
about 10 Lunar Distances. Recently, on October 31 2000, Toutatis
passed less
than 29 lunar distances from earth. On September 29 2004,
Toutatis will
pass just 4 lunar distances from Earth, closer than any other
known PHA will
come during the next 30 years.
Although these distances may seem relatively harmless, NASA's
public
handling of the situation provokes questions regarding the
reality of the
threat.
Toutatis and NASA
If NASA completely understands a situation, they will generally
inform the
public with lots of interesting and helpful facts before the
event
transpires. When a possibly threatening situation arises, and
they are not
100% sure of the outcome, they generally wait until the last
minute
after everything is fine to report the matter. Even then, they
sometimes
make light of the issue to give the appearance that nothing was
ever wrong
in the first place. As they have done with Toutatis.
In a post on October 31 2000 (the day of closest approach), NASA
poked fun
at asteroid Toutatis with a Halloween headline of "Trick or
Treat: It's
Toutatis!" Among the facts were references to vampires,
M&M chocolate, and
children dressed as Toutatis tumbling around imitating the spin
angles of
the asteroid. Since asteroids like Toutatis are definitely
not treats to
have around, the trick that has been played on us all is that
NASA has again
downplayed the seriousness of the issue, deceiving the public
perception of
the threat.
The articles states, "Contrary to some press reports in the
late 1990's, the
variability of Toutatis' orbit does not render the asteroid's
path
unpredictable."
The article goes on to quote Jon Giorgini of JPL's Solar System
Dynamics
group as saying, "Actually, we know Toutatis'
orbit better than that of
any other near-Earth asteroid. The radar data we collected during
close
approaches in the 1990's let us usefully predict its trajectory
over a few hundred years, from about 1300-2500 AD. We're safe
from
collisions for at least several centuries."
Then NASA states, "Clearly, though, continued monitoring is
warranted."
It certainly is, because a previous NASA statement made back in
1995 when
Toutatis was not so close, clearly stated, "One consequence
of the
asteroid's frequent close approaches to Earth is that its
trajectory, more
than several centuries from now cannot be predicted
accurately."
The latest article states, "Toutatis follows an elliptical
orbit around the
Sun that just won't hold still. Orbital resonances and close
encounters with
Venus, Earth, Mars and Jupiter constantly alter the shape of the
asteroid's
path as it loops through the solar system every
3.98 years... Such gravitational encounters, which nudge the
asteroid from
its intended [Ed. predicted] path, are orbit-altering experiences
for
Toutatis."
Information not stated, but implied, is that the orbit of
Toutatis takes it
deep within the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter.
Every re-entry into
this debris field exposes it to unknown gravitational forces and
random
collisions with debris, resulting in an exit trajectory that is
essentially,
unpredictable.
What makes the journey through the asteroid belt a greater reason
for
concern, is the possibly unstable structure of Toutatis itself.
Radar images
from 1992 and 1996, show two chunks of rock connected by a narrow
neck-like
structure. It has been theorized that two distinct asteroids may
have become
stuck together during a coincidental collision in the past, which
formed
Toutatis. One half is approximately 4km in diameter; the
other half is
approximately 2.5km. What would happen if this narrow coupling of
the two
asteroids broke under the immense gravitational forces of Jupiter
(like
Shoemaker-Levy), or during a collision in the asteroid belt?
Such unpredictable factors warrant continual observations and
further
searches for the remaining 90% of threats. The numerous searches
conducted
in the Northern Hemisphere are doing an excellent job in finding
these
needles in the eternal haystack of space. Many of these needles
discovered
by the Northern Hemisphere eventually journey to the Southern
Hemisphere
where only critical locations like Australia can keep a watchful
eye on
these threats. However, since there is no longer a suitable
project
operating in Australia, they are essentially reburying the
needles and
remain blinded by ignorance.
Australia
Australia has the only national government that has canceled a
successful
asteroid search program. The current Prime Minister John Howard
withdrew
funding for their low-cost "Spaceguard Australia"
project in 1996. This mere
$100,000 per annum project was responsible for 30% of near-Earth
asteroid
discoveries and approximately 60% of crucial follow up recoveries
from the
Northern Hemisphere in its final three years of operation.
Since 1996, no professional government funded search has existed
in the
Southern Hemisphere. This problem was raised in the recent
British report
titled "Report of the Task Force on potentially hazardous
Near Earth
Objects." The British report virtually ignored any potential
contribution
from Australia. Not because of any perceived lack of expertise,
but because
of the unwillingness of the Australian government to cooperate
with the
international effort.
Rob McNaught conducts the only professional search effort on a
shoestring
budget. Mostly NASA funds the search; John Howard obviously
considers this
to be a trivial issue. Since the closure of Australia's
Spaceguard program,
The Planetary Society Australian Volunteers have been in contact
with
Australian parliamentary members in an effort to get the program
reinstated.
A strong advocate and coordinator of this organization is Michael
Paine
(mpaine@tpgi.com.au). A
proposal to reinstate the program, prepared by Mr.
Paine can be found at:
http:\\www1.tpgi.com.au/users/tps-seti/Sg_prop.html
Early in 1996, DR Duncan Steel, founder of the original
[Australian]
Spaceguard program, was approached by the Australian government
asking what
could or should be done by the Department of Defense. After DR
Steel replied
in great detail, a response that was sent on the behalf of
Bronwyn Bishop, Minister for Defense Industry, Science and
Technology
stated, "defending people against comet impacts is not a
defense issue." It
is ironic that every other country in the world regards this
threat as a
serious defense issue. So much so, that US Congress recently
tripled NASA's
allocated budget for the detection of NEO's.
A concerned Mr. Paine sent a letter to Mrs. Bishop's office that
highlighted
this and other issues. After sending another letter due to
non-response, he
received a letter stating that, "Whilst Defense is a major
user of space,
this is only on the basis that it... contributes to
surveillance and [gathering] intelligence, mapping, navigation,
and
communications... Possible that the Department of Industry,
Science and
Tourism may have an interest in this matter... Referred your
letter to the
Hon John Moore, MP."
What was her logic? Surely, the tracking of asteroids and comets
would come
under surveillance or mapping intelligence. Why was the letter
forwarded to
the Department of Industry, Science and Tourism? Could the
destruction of
Australia affect their tourism business?
After the Department of Industry, Science and Tourism realized
the stupidity
of involving them in this discussion; they followed up with yet
another
absurd decision to pass the letter on to the Minister for
Employment,
Education, Training and Youth Affairs. Could the destruction of
Australia
solve their unemployment problems?
The Minister for Employment, Education, Training and Youth
Affairs sent the
letter straight back to the Minister for Industry, Science and
Tourism. A
response was then eventually sent from their office stating that,
"While
other Commonwealth agencies, including the Department of Defense,
have
considered funding NEO research, I am not aware that any
currently view such
research as sufficiently important to justify the appropriation
of funds."
Well I guess peace of mind and safety for not only Australia, but
the world,
is not sufficiently important after all!
Despite Australia getting more than their fair share of hits in
the past,
their government still has the nerve to dismiss the threat. All
this
ministerial buck-passing demonstrates perfectly the Australian
government's
completely ignorant attitude towards threats from space, and
blatant
disregard for the serious efforts being conducted in every other
corner of
the Earth.
Public Confidence Played Again
In early November 2000, the public was told of an object
designated 2000
SG344 which could be an asteroid or piece of space junk from the
1970s.
Despite uncertainty about the exact orbit, scientists announced
that there
was an alarming 1 in 500 chance of it hitting Earth in 2030.
NASA's principal engineer Paul Chodas told the press that the
chance of a
collision was about 1000 times greater than any other
asteroid-like object
yet discovered.
What is of even more concern, is that it was only discovered on
September 29
2000. How can there be confusion as to whether or not it is
man-made space
junk? Isn't NORAD tracking all our rubbish already?
After NASA was targeted in a recent battering of posts on the
Internet from
the concerned public, the Near Earth Object web site posted a
news article
on SG344. "Recognizing the public interest over possible
impacts from small
Near-Earth Asteroids (NEA's), the International Astronomical
Union has
established a process to provide international expert review of
any
discoveries or calculations that predict a close encounter with a
non-negligible chance of future impact. This review process has
been
exercised to confirm the calculations, based on current
observations, of a
close encounter with a low probability of impact on 21 September
2030 by a
very small asteroid-like object, designated 2000 SG344."
Only a day after the original announcement, the threat from SG344
was
downgraded and the public's confidence was played again. It
should be no
surprise that the major press and majority of the public do not
take the
asteroid threat seriously. After the same mistake in 1998 with
asteroid 1997
XF11, a new set of guidelines was implemented to stop this kind
of
embarrassment. These rules were supposedly followed for this new
asteroid,
but they obviously remain inadequate.
The threat was downgraded after the original data, previously
studied, was
reanalyzed. Do the new guidelines specifically state that the
data needs to
be double or triple checked before such an announcement? If so,
how could
this happen again? How many times can NASA and Co. cry wolf
before all
public confidence corrodes?
NASA and 1998 OX4
Asteroid 1998 OX4 was originally discovered by a team at the
University of
Arizona that managed to successfully track it for two weeks. It
is believed
to be 300m to 400m in diameter and has a 1 in 10 million chance
of hitting
Earth in 2046. That is slightly better odds than the 1 in 14
million chance of winning the National Lottery. At the time, 1998
OX4 was
the second object discovered with a non-zero chance of a
collision. What is
of serious concern now, is that it has gone missing!
Focusing on 1998 OX4, the recent British report lists four years
that it
could theoretically strike Earth. Those years are 2014, 2038,
2044 and 2046.
It has been reported on the Internet that the Near Earth Objects
- Dynamic
Site (NEODys) previously listed the year 2078 in their impactor
table with a
distance from Earth of 0.0000568AU. While attempting to verify
these
reports, I found that NEODys has removed this listing and posted
a note at
the bottom stating that the list is, "Based on 21
observations (of which
there are 1 rejected outliers)". I have written to NEODys to
hear their
explanation, but they have not responded. In the world of
statistics, an
outlier is an observation that does not comply with the rest of
the
averages, and has been removed for the sake of consistency. Has
this year
been removed for consistency or because it means a confirmed
direct hit? A
distance of 0.0000568AU equates to 5,270 miles from the center of
the Earth.
Since the Earth is approximately 8,000 miles in diameter, this is
virtually
a direct hit!
Upon close examination of the British report, NASA's Deep Impact
project is
repeatedly mentioned throughout the text. This mission has been
designed to
propel a half-ton solid copper projectile into the nucleus of
Comet 9P
Tempel 1 in 2005. This experiment will provide measurements
of the impact and determine how much the comets orbit is altered.
With the orbit of 1998 OX4 bringing it back towards Earth in
2002, 2004 and
2006, it has been recognized that comet Tempel 1 and asteroid
1998 OX4 will
be in the exact same region of space in April 2005. Is this mere
coincidence, or forward planning on NASA's behalf? Is NASA
planning to alter
the orbit of a known Earth impactor in 2005?
Take Action
With the ever-increasing likelihood that there is an asteroid out
there with
our name on it, now is the time for governmental action. We have
already
fallen victim to a number of extremely close passes with
virtually no
warnings or time to respond. We can no longer expect to stay on
the narrow
path of protection, blinded by the ignorance of those in power. I
urge you
to write to your politicians demanding more action and better
notification
of future incoming threats. It is your money; you have the
right to know
what is out there.
c2000 Your Own World USA
===============
(2) SOMETIMES THE SKY DOES FALL
From The Los Angeles Times, 11 November 2000
http://www.latimes.com:80/news/comment/20001111/t000108142.html
The danger of asteroids isn't fantasy. Deflection might not be
possible, but
detection should be pursued. NASA's recent reversal of its
prediction that
an asteroid could hit the Earth in 2030--the second such reversal
in two
years--might lead many to conclude that the danger of asteroids
and comets
is more the stuff of movies than real life. In fact, dozens of
space objects
enter Earth's atmosphere every day. Most streak harmlessly across
the sky as
"shooting stars," more wonderful than frightening.
However, objects 50 meters in diameter, like one that flattened
1,200 square
miles of forest in Siberia in 1908, strike the Earth every 100
years on
average. The Tunguska asteroid exploded above the Siberian forest
in a
brilliant blue fireball. Had it arrived five hours later, St.
Petersburg
might have been destroyed, along with its hundreds of thousands
of people.
In 1995 NASA promised Congress that it would have all potentially
dangerous
objects in space identified by 2005. But a report released in
September by a
British task force discloses that the space agency is years
behind schedule,
largely because it has spent only $2 million a year on the
project.
British Prime Minister Tony Blair and the European Space Agency
are now
considering funding the task force's key recommendation: building
the
world's first [large, BJP] telescope dedicated to finding
threatening comets
and asteroids. Astronomers in the United States say they have had
trouble
overcoming what they call "the giggle factor"--the
tendency to snicker at
asteroid warnings, viewing them as Chicken Little scenarios.
The British report, however, offers a rational reason for the
sort of
increased spending that astronomers at NASA have been unable to
obtain. It
points to a growing body of astronomical research showing that
asteroid
impacts are statistically more likely to harm humans than some
other, more
commonly recognized perils. As the lead author of the British
report, former
European Space Agency Chairman Harry Atkinson, explains,
"The risk of
cataclysmic asteroid impacts is very small. A one-kilometer
asteroid arrives
on average every 100,000 years. But if that was the risk of an
accident in a
nuclear power station, we would spend a lot of money to reduce
the risk."
None of this is to encourage NASA to fund improbable "Star
Wars"-like
technologies in the highly unlikely chance that they might soon
be able to
ward off or deflect space objects. Deflection theory was
seriously embraced
in 1996, when the Air Force quietly carried out a study of
options for
diminishing the chance of an asteroid impact. One would be to
fire
explosives or a projectile from an unmanned spacecraft to nudge
an asteroid
out of Earth's path; another would be to somehow attach solar
sails to an
asteroid to change its orbit. At present this is the stuff of
fantasy.
The focus now should be on mapping potentially dangerous objects
in the
solar system. Improved detection would make deflection far more
feasible,
because the earlier a space object is detected, the less force
will be
required to change its path. Minimal force would nudge an
asteroid out of
Earth's way if the asteroid could be detected and intercepted a
year in
advance, but phenomenal force would be required for an object
only two
months away.
Deflecting space objects may still be more a premise for a Bruce
Willis
movie than a technologically feasible priority for Congress, but
detection
should be an urgent priority now.
c2000 LA Times
==========
(3) 10 DAYS AFTER THE ALL-CLEAR, INDIA'S MEDIA RAISE ASTEROID
ALARM
From The Times of India, 14 November 2000
http://www.timesofindia.com/141100/14hlth1.htm
Asteroid could strike in 2030, say scientists
LONDON: The International Astronomical Union (IAU) has predicted
that an
asteroid, which could unleash a force 100 times greater than the
Hiroshima
atomic bomb, may strike earth on September 21, 2030.......
===============
(4) "ASTRONOMERS SAY ASTEROID COULD STRIKE EARTH IN
2030"
From The Indian Express, 14 November 2000
http://www.expressindia.com/news/daily/20001114/01300600.htm
LONDON: The International Astronomical Union (IAU) has predicted
that an
asteroid, which could unleash a force 100 times greater than the
Hiroshima
atomic bomb, may strike earth on September 21, 2030......
============
(5) ASTRONOMERS PREDICT ASTEROID ECLIPSE
From Ron Baalke <baalke@jpl.nasa.gov>
Press Release (for immediate release):
Astronomers Predict Eclipse of Naked-Eye Star by an Asteroid
Monday Morning,
Nov. 20
The event will be visible from West Virginia to Chicago and North
Dakota
Your videorecording of the eclipse can give new information about
the star
and asteroid
If you are within a 65-mile (104-km)-wide band crossing the
Midwest and
western Canada, you can see the naked-eye star Tejat wink out for
about 10
seconds as it is covered by the asteroid Sulamitis shortly before
sunrise
Monday morning, November 20. Millions of early risers in
Charleston and
Huntington, West Virginia; Dayton, Ohio; Muncie and Gary,
Indiana; Chicago,
Illinois; Madison and Eau Claire, Wisconsin; St. Paul, Minnesota;
Grand
Forks, North Dakota; Brandon, Manitoba; and many other smaller
towns in the
path have a chance to see this
event, the eclipse of the brightest star predicted to be eclipsed
by an
asteroid as seen from the U.S.A. since such predictions have been
computed
starting in 1975. The eclipse will occur at 6:41 am EST in West
Virginia and
southern Ohio, 6:42 am EST in western Ohio and Indiana, 5:43 am
CST in the
Chicago area, 5:44 am in western Wisconsin and the Minneapolis
area, 5:45 in
central Minnesota, 5:46 in northeastern North Dakota, 5:47 in
southwestern
Manitoba, and 5:48 to 5:49 am CST across Saskatchewan.
The eclipse, called "occultation" by astronomers, can
be seen with the naked
eye, but binoculars or camcorders will give better views of it.
The
International Occultation Timing Association (IOTA) seeks
videorecordings of
the eclipse. IOTA plans to analyze the observations to determine
the size
and shape of both the asteroid and the star, and even to map
variations in
brightness across the star, which is a red giant 100 times the
diameter of
the Sun 232 light-years away in the constellation Gemini, the
Twins. Since
the star is so large, even though it is very far away, it will
take 2 to 3
seconds for the edge of Sulamitis to cover and uncover it.
Consequently, the
disappearance and reappearance will be gradual. The path where
the star will
be totally eclipsed will be 43 miles (69 km) wide. This path will
be flanked
to the north and south by 11-mile (18-km) wide zones where the
star will be
partially covered for a few seconds, causing it to dim
considerably, but not
completely disappear. Therefore, the total path width, including
the partial
occultation zones, is 65 miles (104 km). The path also crosses
southwestern
Virginia and North Carolina, but the event occurs too close to
sunrise
there; small telescopes will be needed there to see the star in
the bright
dawn twilight.
More information about the occultation, including maps showing
the predicted
path and full sky charts for locating the star, are given on
IOTA's Web site
at http://www.lunar-occultations.com/iota
There is still about half a
path-width uncertainty in the location of the path (it could be a
little
north or south of the described path) which will be reduced with
the last
prediction that will be posted on the web site Friday evening,
November 17.
Sulamitis is in the main belt of asteroids between the orbits of
Mars and
Jupiter; its orbit does not intersect that of the Earth so there
is no
danger of it hitting the Earth. The items below will also
be on that Web
site.
FINDING THE STAR
Locating the star is relatively simple. The sky chart illustrates
the
directions given below, especially the one with stars and lines
on the Web
site. The crescent Moon will be high in the southeast. Look in
the opposite
direction, low in the west, and you will see Jupiter and Sirius,
the
brightest objects in the sky after the Moon. Between Jupiter and
Sirius is
Orion, whose belt of three fairly bright stars is distinctive.
Above the
belt is the bright red star Betelgeuse. Far above it is the
distinctive
pair of bright stars, Castor and Pollux, with Pollux on your
left.
Three-fifths of the way from Pollux to Betelgeuse is the
moderately bright
star Alhena. Directly to the right of Alhena, by about the same
distance as
Castor is from Pollux, is a pair of fainter stars. The
upper left of these
is Tejat, the star that will be eclipsed.
RECORDING THE ECLIPSE
Those with camcorders can easily videotape the event. First,
point at the
Moon, zooming in until you focus on it. Then switch to manual
focus and
leave it at that position. Then point the
camcorder at Jupiter, and make small manual focusing adjustments,
if
necessary, to bring it and nearby stars into focus. Then zoom out
some, and
locate Betelgeuse, Castor, and Pollux, then Alhena, as described
above. Zoom
in to see the fainter stars, then keep Tejat in the field of view
during the
minute of the eclipse in your area (the predicted time of the
event is
accurate to half a minute). We will also want the accurate time
of the
event, which can be done by recording the strong clear-channel
station WLS
in Chicago at 890 on the AM dial. We will record that station
along with
accurate short-wave time signals from the time station WWV (at
5.0 and 10.0
MHz if you have a short-wave radio) to calibrate WLS. If
you successfully
record the eclipse, we will need your longitude, latitude, and
height above
sealevel, information that can either be determined with a GPS
receiver or
from Web sites (enter your address at www.mapsonus.com or similar
sites to
get a map of your area, and set "map clicking" to
"show Long./Lat.").
Height above sealevel can be found from the topographic maps at
www.topozone.com.
IOTA members in your area can help with this process, but
your work will save us time to facilitate the analysis. If
you videorecord
the eclipse, send a message describing briefly what you did, your
location,
and your contact e-mail and telephone number to IOTA at dunham@erols.com or
to IOTA, c/o D. Dunham, 7006 Megan Lane, Greenbelt, MD 20770. We
will ask
you for your videotape if it might be useful for our analysis.
MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE STAR, TEJAT
Tejat means "foot" in Arabic since it is in the
"foot" of Castor.
Astronomers usually refer to the star as "mu Geminorum"
where "mu" is the
Greek letter. The "official" proper name is
"Tejat Posterior" to
distinguish it from the similar star near it (below and right of
Tejat on
the sky charts) which is rarely called "Tejat Prior"
but more frequently
called "Propus" or "eta Geminorum". Tejat
(Posterior) has a diameter of
about 83 million miles (133 million km), 100 times that of the
Sun; if it
were centered at the Sun's location, Mercury would orbit beneath
its
surface. Since it is 232 light-years away, the light we see now
from the
star left it in 1768 (uncertain by +/-15 years).
MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE ASTEROID, SULAMITIS
Sulamitis was the 752nd asteroid discovered, so it is asteroid
number 752.
It was discovered by G. Neujmin and M. Belyavskis at Simeis
Observatory in
the Crimea on April 30, 1913. The asteroid is estimated to be 41
miles or 61
km in diameter, but this is uncertain by several miles and its
shape is not
known. At the time of the occultation, Sulamitis will be 133
million miles
(214 million km) from the Earth. Sulamits was named after the Old
Testament
character Sulamith, probably the Queen of Sheba. Sulamitis is a
feminine
form of Sulaiman, which is the Arabic form of Solomon, meaning
"peaceable".
CREDITS
The path location was predicted on November 11 by Dr. Martin
Federspiel at
the Freiburg Planetarium in Freiburg, Germany (e-mail
martin@astro.unibas.ch,
phone +49-761-2017946), using accurate observations
of Sulamitis obtained by Ronald Stone at the U. S. Naval
Observatory in
Flagstaff, AZ (e-mail rcs@nofs.navy.mil)
and by Bill Owen at Jet Propulsion
Laboratory's Table Mountain Observatory near Wrightwood, CA
(e-mail
wmo@jpl.nasa.gov) up
through November 8.
The star position was accurately measured by the European Space
Agency's
HIPPARCOS satellite in the early 1990's. IOTA members Jim Stamm,
Sam Falvo,
Scott Degenhardt, Jan Manek, Richard Nugent, Richard Wilds, and
Rob Robinson
provided information used here and posted on IOTA's Web site.
CONTACT INFORMATION
David Dunham, the president of IOTA, can be reached by e-mail at
dunham@erols.com, although
during the day later this week it will be quicker
to reach him at david.dunham@jhuapl.edu.
He is now in California at (562)
430-2391, but later this week will be returning to Maryland, home
phone
(301) 474-4722, office phone (240) 228-5609 (the latter has phone
mail that
I will be checking frequently remotely). Questions can also be
answered by
IOTA's Web master, Rob
Robinson (e-mail webmaster@lunar-occultations.com)
in Bonner Springs, KS or
by IOTA member Scott Degenhardt in Murphysboro, TN (e-mail dega@home.com).
Joan and David Dunham
7006 Megan Lane
Greenbelt, MD 20770
(301) 474-4722
dunham@erols.com
=============
(6) EAST-ASIAN ARCHAEO-ASTRONOMY
From David W. Pankenier <dwp0@Lehigh.EDU>
Dear Benny,
This new publication may be of interest to Cambridge Conference
list
members:
EAST-ASIAN ARCHAEOASTRONOMY: HISTORICAL RECORDS OF ASTRONOMICAL
OBSERVATIONS
OF CHINA, JAPAN, AND KOREA
Zhentao XU, Purple Mt. Observatory, Nanjing, China,
David W. Pankenier, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA, USA
Yaotiao JIANG, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
Historical astronomical records can play an important role in
modern
research, especially in the case of ancient Chinese astronomical
data.
Sunspot and auroral records are important for the study of solar
variability, solar and lunar eclipse records for the study of the
Earth's
rotation, records of Comet Halley for the study of orbital
evolution, 'guest
star' records for the study of supernova remnants, and planetary
conjunction
records for research in astronomical chronology.
In the past, Western scientists have not been able to exploit
these valuable
data fully because the original records were difficult to find
and
interpret, and complete English translations have not been
available.
EAST-ASIAN ARCHAEOASTRONOMY is the first comprehensive
translation into
English of such astronomical records for modern research. The
book also
features an introduction to East Asian astronomy and offers
guidance on how
to use the records effectively. It will not
only be a valuable research tool for astronomers, but should also
be of
great interest to historians of China and Chinese science.
Contents:
Astronomical Observations in Ancient China
Astronomical Observations in Oracle-bone Inscriptions
Solar Eclipses
Lunar Eclipses
Comet Halley
Guest Stars
Sunspots
Aurora Borealis
Clusters of Multiple Planets
Original Texts of the Chinese Observational Records
Volume 5, Earth Space Institute Series, Gordon and Breach
Scientific
Publishers (Amsterdam, 2000), 444 pp., Cloth, ISBN 90-5699-302-X,
US$115 (76
Pounds sterling/127 Euros)
A second volume containing complete translations of all cometary
and meteor
shower records is currently in preparation.
Yours,
David Pankenier
============
(7) LEONIDS 2000: SPECTACULAR DISPLAY OR DAMP SQUIB?
From ESA News <sciweb@estec.esa.nl>
One of the most exciting things about meteor showers is their
sheer
unpredictability. Just when astronomers think they know all about
a
particular shower, something happens to spring a surprise. One of
the least
predictable of the annual meteor showers is the Leonids, which
appears each
year around 16-18 November.
Although this year's shower is not expected to reach storm
proportions, ESA
scientists are continuing their efforts to learn more about the
cosmic
debris that is incinerated as it enters Earth's upper atmosphere.
Find out more about the Leonids at: http://sci.esa.int/leonids2000
=============
(8) LEONID METEORS YIELD RICH ASTROBIOLOGY RESEARCH RESULTS
From Ron Baalke <baalke@zagami.jpl.nasa.gov>
Kathleen Burton
Nov. 13, 2000
NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA
650/604-1731, kburton@mail.arc.nasa.gov
RELEASE: 00-77AR
LEONID METEORS YIELD RICH ASTROBIOLOGY RESEARCH RESULTS
A team of NASA researchers and their collaborators report their
findings
from last year's Leonid meteor storm in today's special issue of
the journal
"Earth, Moon and Planets."
The scientists - all members of the NASA and U.S. Air
Force-sponsored Leonid
Multi-Instrument Aircraft Campaign - discussed their results in a
series of
astrobiology-related papers in the peer-reviewed journal. While
their
findings covered a range of areas, the key results reported have
implications for the existence and survival of life's precursors
in comet
materials that reach Earth.
"Last year's Leonid meteor storm yielded rich research
results for NASA
astrobiologists," said Dr. Peter Jenniskens, a NASA
astronomer based at Ames
Research Center and principal investigator for the airborne
research
mission. "Findings to date indicate that the chemical
precursors to life --
found in comet dust -- may well have survived a plunge into early
Earth's
atmosphere."
Jenniskens and his international cadre of researchers think that
much of the
organic matter in comet dust somehow survived the rapid heating
of Earth's
atmospheric entry. "Organic molecules in the meteoroid
didn't seem to burn
up in the atmosphere," he explained. They may have cooled
rapidly before
breaking apart, he concluded.
Another manner in which organic matter can somehow survive the
fiery plunge
into Earth's atmosphere was discovered by a team from the
Aerospace
Corporation, Los Angeles, who detected the fingerprint of complex
organic
matter, identical to space-borne cometary dust, in the path of a
bright
Leonid fireball. This "fingerprint" is still under
investigation to ensure
that trace-air compounds are not contributing to the detection.
Another finding with potentially important implications for
astrobiology is
that meteors are not as hot as researchers had previously
believed. "We
discovered that most of the visible light of meteors comes from a
warm wake
just behind the meteor, not from the hot meteoroid's head,"
said Jenniskens.
This warm wake has just the right temperature for the creation of
life's
chemical precursors, he said.
Utah State University researchers found that, during the meteors'
demise in
the atmosphere, their rapid spinning caused small fragments to be
ejected in
all directions, quite far from the meteoroid's head. This is an
important
finding for astrobiology, because it means that meteors may
be able to
chemically alter large amounts of atmosphere.
This year, the 2000 Leonid meteor shower is expected to peak
twice -- once
on Thursday night November 16 and again on Friday night November
17.
Although not as strong as last year's storm, meteors will be
visible across
the continental United States, with the East Coast predicted to
provide the
best meteor viewing. Each night, optimal East Coast viewing will
be at
approximately 2:50 a.m. (EST). West Coast observers can glimpse
the showers
beginning after 11:00 p.m. (PST), and peaking between midnight
and 1:30 a.m.
Astronomers recommend that, because this year's showers take
place during a
last-quarter moon, optimal observing conditions demand a wide
field of view,
with the moon behind trees or buildings.
An observing tool called the "Leonid MAC flux
estimator" is available for
the general public at: http://leonid.arc.nasa.gov.
It predicts how much
meteor activity is expected at a particular U.S. observing
location. Further
images from 1999's meteor storm, information about "Earth,
Moon and Planets"
and other Leonids information can be found at: http://amesnews.arc.nasa.gov
Astrobiology is the study of the origin, evolution, dissemination
and future
of life in the universe. NASA's Ames Research Center, in the
heart of
California's Silicon Valley, is the Center of Excellence for
NASA's
astrobiology research. It is also the location of the central
offices of the
NASA Astrobiology Institute, an international research
partnership - among
NASA and non-NASA agencies and institutions - to further
astrobiology
research.
=============
(9) HERE COMES THE LEONIDS
From Thursday's Classroom for Nov. 13, 2000
http://www.thursdaysclassroom.com
The 2000 Leonid meteor shower is just around the corner. This
year's display
of 100 or so shooting stars per hour might not match the
anticipated Leonid
meteor storm in 2001, but experts say it's still worth
watching. This
week's episode of Thursday's Classroom includes lessons
and activities that will help kids (1) figure out where to look
for Leonid
meteors, (2) prepare for a meteor watch, and (3) count the
meteors they see.
For more information please visit: http://www.thursdaysclassroom.com
=============
(10) METEOROIDS 2001: FIRST ANNOUNCEMENT
From Duncan Steel <D.I.Steel@salford.ac.uk>
------------
From Asta Pellinen-Wannberg
Dear colleagues,
Please find enclosed the 1st Announcement for the Meteoroids 2001
conference
in Kiruna, Sweden. Please feel free to pass this message on
to anyone you
know who might be interested.
Looking forward to seeing you in Kiruna
Asta Pellinen-Wannberg, Local Organising committee
*********************************************************************
First Announcement on METEOROIDS 2001
Conference at the SWEDISH INSTITUTE OF SPACE PHYSICS, KIRUNA,
SWEDEN
6-10 August 2001
This conference will be the fourth in a series of meteoroid
meetings which
have been held every few years since 1993, the last being in
Tatranska
Lomnica in 1998. It will accommodate a broad range of meteoroid
research:
dynamics, sources and distribution of these bodies, the physics
and
chemistry of their interaction process with the atmosphere as
well as the
space weather aspects in the form of their hypervelocity impact
threat to
spacecraft. Due to the high Leonid activity during recent years,
much
research has been devoted to these topics with both traditional
and new
optical, radar and in-situ methods from ground, airplane and
spacecraft.
Due to the recent recurrence of the Leonids, a session on
historical
observations of meteors and perspectives on meteor science will
be included,
but most of the meeting will be devoted to new results, new
observations and
new techniques. Much meteor stream modelling work has preceded
the recent
Tempel-Tuttle visit; in 1998 the quite moderate Leonids extended
over a day,
while in 1999 the sharp and much more intensive maximum was
correctly
predicted. There has been another opportunity to observe the
Leonids
(November 2000) and improve the models so the proposed conference
is at a
very optimum time to provide a forum for an overview of progress
in the
dynamics and modelling of meteor storms and valuable results are
to be
expected on understanding important (e.g. satellite damage)
commercial
interests.
In radar applications the data collection and signal processing
techniques
have developed hugely within a few years. Besides the traditional
VHF meteor
radars, large aperture VHF and UHF facilities as Arecibo and
EISCAT have
been used for meteor studies. With these extremely sensitive
instruments,
the mysterious head echo process can be studied with very high
spatial and
time resolution observing the effects on the background
ionosphere
simultaneously. Radars are important tools for studying the
various origins
of the meteoroids. Recent work (the AMOR and Arecibo instruments)
has been
able to provide definitive evidence for the expanding field of
Interstellar
Particle detection.
In-situ measurements on meteoroids and the observation of the
interstellar
particles with Ulysses spacecraft started a new era of
space-borne
experiments. Observational data about the local interstellar
medium and the
outer solar system including the Kuiper belt objects raise
interest again in
the orbital and collisional evolution of meteoroids, including
"icy"
meteoroids. In a similar way the observation of debris shells in
circumstellar systems bears a new application of the study of the
"meteoritic complex" from the fragmentation of large
parent bodies to the
formation of a dust cloud.
New global problems such as indications of climate change are
being tackled.
Meteoric constituents have an effect on the physics and chemistry
of the
atmosphere at and below the deposition heights. Especially, it is
important
to understand the impact of these on the artificial constituents.
Studies of
how the addition of meteoric constituents affect different
atmospheric
phenomena such as noctilucent clouds and ozone chemistry have
increased in
interest. Studies of meteoroid chemical composition and the
ablation
processes can even provide information about the state of early
conditions
in the solar system.
Hypervelocity impact effects on spacecraft is a very important
application
of the meteoroid science. The results from the meteor stream
modelling
discussed above especially for meteor shower periods are
important. The flux
of meteoroids large enough to penetrate the spacecraft and cause
great
damage is very low even during the Leonids. The more numerous
smaller
particles are much more dangerous since they can induce surface
charging and
trigger spacecraft anomalies similar to the high speed solar
wind.
Especially interesting is the relation between the meteor
triggered
anomalies and high solar activity. The growing number of
satellites and
consequently of space debris will rapidly increase the risks for
impact
damage on spacecraft.
TOPICS
*******
The following scientific areas are proposed for this meeting:
* Historical observations and perspectives on meteoroids
* Dynamics, sources and spatial distribution of meteoroids
including
sporadic, swarm and interstellar meteoroids
* Physics and chemistry of meteoroid interaction process in the
atmosphere
including both head echo and trail effects
* Impacts of meteoric constituents on atmospheric phenomena
* Hypervelocity impact effects on spacecraft
* Leonids - meteor storms and their short-term environmental
effects
With observations done with the following methods:
* Optical observations of meteors including cameras, telescopes
and lidars
* Radar observations with meteor and large aperture radars
* In-situ measurements of meteoroids
SCIENTIFIC ORGANISATION COMMITTEE
***************************************
Prof. W.J. Baggaley, University of Canterbury, New Zealand
Prof. Oleg Belkovich, Kazan State University, Russia
Dr. Gerhard Drolshagen, European Space Agency, Netherlands
Prof. Eberhard Grun, Max-Planck-Institut fur Kernphysik, Germany
Dr. Robert Hawkes, Mount Allison University, Canada
Dr. Peter Jenniskens, NASA Ames Research Center, USA
Dr. Ingrid Mann, European Space Agency, Netherlands and
The University of Muenster, Germany
Prof. David D. Meisel, State University of New York, USA
Dr. Edmond Murad, Air Force Research Laboratory, USA
Dr. Asta Pellinen-Wannberg, Swedish Institute of Space Physics,
Sweden
Dr. Vladimir Porubcan, Astronomical Institute SAV, Slovakia
Dr. Junichi Watanabe, National Astronomical Observatory of Japan,
Japan
Prof. Iwan Williams, University of London, UK
LOCAL ORGANISATION COMMITTEE
***********************************
Asta Pellinen-Wannberg
Eivor Jonsson (secretary), meteoroids2001@irf.se
Christina Juren
Rick McGregor (webmaster), webmaster@irf.se
Birgitta Maatta
More information can be found on our web-site:
http://www.irf.se/Meteoroids2001/
which will now be continuously updated as we get more
information.
============================
* LETTERS TO THE MODERATOR *
============================
(11) NAMING THINGS
From Duncan Steel <D.I.Steel@salford.ac.uk>
Dear Benny,
As many meteor watchers wait for the action on November
17th/18th, this
newspaper article from soon after last year's event provides some
food for
thought with regard to naming celestial objects. OK, the writer
makes some
mistakes and has some misconceptions (confusing
meteors/meteoroids/meteorites, spelling Tempel-Tuttle
incorrectly, the
"naming" of stars), but he does show what many members
of the public likely
feel on this matter. Perhaps part of the reason for the protests
over
discussions on the classification of Pluto - likely to burst
forth again if
the meaning of "planet" is to be debated and decided
within astronomical
ranks - comes from people's antipathy towards astronomers
apportioning to themselves the naming
rights. I do not necessarily agree with the writer's stance, but
it is a
valid viewpoint. The parallel with the naming of new species is
also
interesting.
Duncan Steel
================================================================
Shower power
Paul Evans
The Guardian
Wednesday November 24, 1999
So much for the Leonids. Encouraged by reliable reports of clear
night skies
and fortified with plenty of coffee, we waited for the second
once-in-a-lifetime astronomical event this year.
All right, we knew the meteorites were not shooting stars from
the Leo
constellation and were in fact the grit spray from an old cosmic
shuttle bus
called the Temple-Tuttle comet, but with a predicted shower of
1,000
meteorites an hour, this was going to be fantastic.
There was a shower: it was the usual wet stuff. The clouds that
were
supposed to be confined to the far west blanketed the whole sky.
While the
most spectacular meteorite shower in living memory - not to be
repeated for
more than 30 years - was going on above the clouds, below them it
was
raining. Damn.
While I was hanging about in the dark, cold drizzle, it occurred
to me that
the colonisation of nature by scientific language is far more
anthropomorphic than it seems. Why do we accept the naming of
comets after
space nerds? Hurricane Lenny is currently ravaging the Caribbean
- Lenny
who?
Thousands of creatures bear the Latinised names of people who
"discovered"
them, as if they had no identity before that. The fact that I did
not
actually see the meteorite spectacular doesn't
mean that it wasn't a wonderful event.
Why do we have to give natural phenomena human forms to endow
them with
significance? Surely this is a terrible failure of language.
However, as a local story this week demonstrates, there can be an
up side to
all this. A woman who is a keen amateur astronomer and registered
blind has
had permission to name a star after the people who helped her get
thousands
of pounds of benefit entitlement.
The star will be called "The Benefit Shop, Dudley".
Well, it does have a
poetic ring to it.
Copyright, Guardian Newspapers Limited 1999.
==============
(12) CCNet SHOULD COVER ANY NATURAL HAZARD THAT MIGHT EFFECT
CIVILISATION
From Malcolm Miller <stellar2@cyberone.com.au>
Dear Benny,
I think you should continue to include climate change stuff in
the general
content of CCNet and not put it in a special once-a-week
bulletin.
In my opinion, CCNet is the place for material about any kind of
catastrophe
that has or might affect not just civilization, but society,
life, the
fossil record, history, the future, etc. It
should certainly include impacts, vulcanism, earthquakes, and
changes in the
atmosphere, biosphere, or hydrosphere that have more than local
effect.
Malcolm Miller
==============
(13) AND FINALLY, THE TRUTH IS OUT: MERCURY TO BLAME FOR U.S.
PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION HICCUPS
From The Los Angeles Times, 13 November 2000
http://www.latimes.com/news/science/science/20001113/t000108682.html
"So, you knew the election would be close, but you never
expected this
back-and-forth vote with recounts and computer glitches? Those
who see
meaning in the stars say they saw it coming. The culprit? The
planet
Mercury, which began its apparent retrograde--or backward--
movement in the
heavens for the last time this year on Oct. 18 and ended it at
9:22 p.m. EST
on election day. Now, with the snafus in the presidential
election,
including charges that Florida voters were confused by the odd
ballot
configuration, astrologers are saying, "We told you
so."........
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------
THE CAMBRIDGE-CONFERENCE NETWORK (CCNet)
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