PLEASE NOTE:
*
CCNet 114/2003 - 28 November 2003
ARE THE WORLD'S GLACIERS MELTING AWAY?
---------------------------------------
The world's glaciers could melt within a century if global
warming accelerates,
leaving billions of people short of water and some islanders
without a home,
environmentalists said. "Unless governments take urgent
action to prevent global
warming, billions of people worldwide may face severe water
shortages as a result
of the alarming melting rate of glaciers, the World Wildlife Fund
(WWF) said in
a report.
--ABC News, 27 November 2003
There are several regions with highly negative mass balances in
agreement with a
public perception of 'the glaciers are melting,' but there are
also regions with
positive balances. Within Europe, Alpine glaciers are generally
shrinking,
Scandinavian glaciers are growing, and glaciers in the Caucasus
are close to
equilibrium for 1980-95. There is no obvious common or global
trend of increasing
glacier melt in recent years.
--R.J. Braithwaite, Progress in Physical
Geography 26:2000
The celebrated ice cap on Africa's loftiest peak could vanish
within 20 years,
taking with it a unique scientific resource. Although it's
tempting to blame
the ice loss on global warming, researchers think that
deforestation of the
mountain's foothills is the more likely culprit. Without the
forests' humidity,
previously moisture-laden winds blew dry. No longer replenished
with water,
the ice is evaporating in the strong equatorial sunshine.
--Betsy Mason, Nature, 24 November
2003
(1) SCIENTISTS SEEK TO SAVE LIVES AT WORLD'S LARGEST TSUNAMI
RESEARCH LAB
Associated Press, 27 November 2003
(2) SATELLITES ASSIST PLANERS PREVENTING FLOODS
Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>
(3) COP9 MEETING IN MILAN, 1-12 DECEMBER
COP9, 26 November 2003
(4) MONSTER SCARE OF THE WEEK: "BILLIONS FACE WATER
SHORTAGES AS GLACIERS MELT"
ABC News, 27 November 2003
(5) REALITY CHECK: ARE THE WORLD'S GLACIERS REALLY MELTING AWAY?
CO2 Science Magazine, March 2003
(6) GLACIER MASS BALANCE TRENDS: UP OR DOWN?
CO2 Science Magazine, June 2002
(7) THE ICE OF KILIMANJARO
www.john-daly.com,
28 November 2003
(8) AFRICAN ICE UNDER WRAPS
Nature, 24 November 2003
(9) ADAPTATION, NOT KYOTO, IS THE SOLUTION TO GLOBAL WARMING
Environmental News Network, 28 November 2003
(10) EUROPE'S REVOLTING DILEMMA: ALLEVIATING HUNGER AND GM
TECHNOLOGY
Nutra Ingrediants, 27 November 2003
(11) TURNING THANKSGIVING INTO OIL
Rick Lanser <rickl@enter.net>
(12) ISS HIT/NOT HIT
Marco Langbroek <meteorites@dmsweb.org>
(13) AND FINALLY: HOW MAGIC MUSHROOMS COULD SOLVE THE WORLD'S
GREENHOUSE GAS PROBLEMS
Canadian Business Magazine, December
2003
===========
(1) SCIENTISTS SEEK TO SAVE LIVES AT WORLD'S LARGEST TSUNAMI
RESEARCH LAB
Associated Press, 27 November 2003
http://www.enn.com/news/2003-11-27/s_10835.asp
By Fawn Porter, Associated Press
CORVALLIS, Ore. - A low rumble broke the silence. Swelling and
cresting, large waves slammed into the concrete basin containing
them. The powerful waves were quelled when Dr. Daniel Cox
signaled the control room to shut off the tsunami simulator.
"That's how it works," said Cox, the lab director.
"We control the tsunamis."
Here at the world's largest tsunami research lab, scientists and
graduate students are conducting experiments to better prepare
tsunami-prone regions for these massive waves.
"The likelihood of tsunamis is not increasing," Cox
said. "However, more people are moving to the coast, and
it's our job to see that they live there safely."
Tsunamis, enormous waves caused by earthquakes or undersea
volcanoes, can be devastating. A 1992 tsunami washed away
two-thirds of an Indonesian island. A 1964 earthquake set off a
tsunami that devastated many towns along the Gulf of Alaska and
caused damage all along the West Coast.
Tsunami research began in September at the O.H. Hinsdale Wave
Research Lab housed in a hangarlike building in Corvallis. Its
goal is to help coastal communities around the world plan for
more efficient evacuations and construct buildings and bridges
able to withstand the impact of tsunamis.
The lab's floors are littered with objects that have been used in
experiments: boats, driftwood, rocks, metal siding.
Researchers create miniature tsunamis inside a rectangular,
50-yard (45.5-meter) concrete basin that looks like a swimming
pool. Although the water depth inside the basin is only 3 feet
(90 centimeters), the scientists are able to simulate
150-foot-tall (45-meter-tall) tsunami waves. Inside the basin are
rocks and gravel, to gauge the effect of giant waves on
shorelines.
"The goal is to make sure it actually looks and acts as a
shore so we can gather accurate data on a wave's effects,"
Cox said.
In one room of the hangar is a 372-foot-long (111-meter-long)
flume built in the 1970s to determine what effect wave forces
would have on manmade structures and the erosive forces on
beaches.
Scientists create miniature structures - such as a simulated
marina - and send waves of water crashing against them, said
Javier Moncada, an undergraduate student in the program.
At the basin where tsunamis are simulated, Cox explains how it
works. Inside the tank is a large metal paddle used to create
waves and to control their height and direction. A scientist
tells the control room operator to move the paddle to a certain
position. With a rumbling sound, the paddle creates a wall of
water that simulates the way a tsunami moves.
Scientists don't actually have to be there to conduct research.
Cox pointed to a moving camera beneath the lab's second-floor
control room.
"That camera is called our 'wave cam.' Using this camera,
remote scientists can see their experiments in progress via the
Internet," he said.
Using online resources, researchers are able to share data and
seek advice from one another. "When you get several people
together, it amplifies the effects of the research," said
Harry Yeh, a wave expert and professor at Oregon State
University.
The compiled data and results are stored online for easy
reference.
"In times past," Yeh said, "a scientist would
spend so much time conducting research, write a paper - only to
have it placed in a book and shoved away for 15 years. But with
this, with collaboration, lots of people can immediately be
involved while the interest and information is still
current."
The lab is part of nationwide seismographic research that's being
conducted at 15 sites. Only in Corvallis are tsunamis studied.
The overall research is sponsored by the National Science
Foundation and the Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation,
with a $4.8 million grant from the foundation.
The tsunami lab has been used in experiments for alternative
energy and the effects of bioterrorism. It conducts research for
private consulting firms and fish hatcheries, and the U.S. Navy
has expressed interest.
Internationally, the basin has begun to generate interest in
regions such as Japan. Data received from the recent earthquake
and subsequent tsunami near Hokkaido in northern Japan will give
researchers here new insights.
===========
(2) SATELLITES ASSIST PLANERS PREVENTING FLOODS
Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>
ESA News
http://www.esa.int
27 November 2003
Satellites assist planners preventing floods
Virtual floods modelled inside computers are an increasingly
useful means for
authorities to prepare for genuine river surges. With flooding
classed as the
world's most costly natural hazard, an ESA project has assessed
using satellite
imagery to improve flood simulation models.
Flood control and management represents a major challenge for
water authorities,
and as the global incidence of flooding increases, it has also
become a subject
of concern for the global insurance industry.
The US Geological Survey estimates that flooding is the world's
most costly type
of natural disaster, costing Euro 170 billion ($200 billion)
between 1991 and
1995. Last year's European floods alone are reported to have
caused more than
Euro 7 billion of damage.
Like everything linked to the weather, floods are difficult to
predict -- a few
days of steady rainfall might be sufficient for a river to burst
its banks.
What software-based flood simulation models can do is foretell
how a river will
behave if it does flood, and allow authorities to assess their
best course of
action.
"Here in Flanders, we are responsible for maintaining our
many rivers and
waterways, and are also tasked with preventing or controlling
floods," explained
Project Engineer Ingrid Boey of the Flemish Water Authority AWZ,
end user for
ESA's FAME (Flood risk and damage Assessment using Modelling and
Earth
observation techniques) project.
"A useful research technique for us is by creating
hydrodynamic simulations of
our various river basins. Originally these were physical scale
models -- we
still have those -- but numerical models running in computers are
increasingly
important. We can use them to see what actions should be taken in
particular
scenarios, such as employing controlled flooding areas, locally
raising dikes
higher, activating pumping stations or -- in extreme situations
-- ordering
evacuations.
"From next year our models are going to used operationally
to make predictions
in real time, so it is vital we are sure they are as close to the
real world as
possible."
The problem comes in converting what are essentially
one-dimensional computer
models of water levels and flow into accurate depictions of the
two-dimensional
spatial extent of flooded areas. And when it comes to checking
the models
against historical floods, fully accurate spatial and temporal
records can be
hard to find.
"We find water levels have been recorded, but not always the
full spatial
extent," explained Boey. "Aerial photos are often not
available, and even when
they are, they don't always cover the whole of the flooded area.
Also needed are
hard facts on the duration of the flood. We end up with one
person remembering
three days, and one person recalling two."
The idea behind the FAME project was to use satellite data as an
additional
means of mapping flood extent in zones close to rivers as well as
creating more
accurate flood risk maps and carrying out post-flood damage
assessment. Project
partners included SADL (Spatial Applications Division Leuven),
Sarmap and
D'Appolonia.
Project manager was Professor Patrick Willems of the University
of Leuven's
Hydraulics Laboratory: "Our lab oversees the creation of
flood control models,
so I came at the problem more from the side of the user than the
service
provider. We focused on two flood-prone rivers, the Dender and
the Demer."
ERS and Envisat radar images were acquired for the rivers
corresponding to
historical floods that occurred in 1993, 1995, 1998 and 2003.
Because radar
imagery records surface roughness instead of reflected light, it
is a good means
of detecting flowing and standing water. High resolution IKONOS
and Landsat-ETM
optical imagery became the basis of risk maps; products valued by
the insurance
industry as well as water authorities.
"With risk mapping you are combining three different
variables," explained
Willems. "First is the spatial extent -- which areas will
flood. Then comes the
type of areas will be affected; a flooded meadow won't cause as
much damage as
an inundated urban area. The final variable is the return period
-- will the
flood recur once a year, every ten years or every 100
years?"
Combine them together and you can quantify how likely flood
damage is for a
given area, and be guided how much should reasonably be spent
either to guard
against it or insure against it. AWZ has already updated flood
damage and flood
risk maps in the two river basins based on the high-resolution
imagery.
With historic flood mapping for simulation calibration, Envisat
data was found
to be more accurate than ERS. Envisat's Advanced Synthetic
Aperture Radar (ASAR)
instrument has several advantages over its predecessor, including
beam steering
capability for increased temporal coverage, a wide swath option
and alternating
polarisation modes -- all of which give it an edge in flood
detection.
The FAME project is now formally concluded, although AWZ hopes to
acquire
Envisat and Radarsat data in tandem if further flooding occurs
this winter,
which would give an effective revisit time of one or two days. A
decision has
still to be made on extending the FAME service, which was funded
by ESA's Data
User Programme.
"Combined with other flood information sources, satellite
data can definitely be
effective," said Boey. "Flanders is not a big place, so
a few satellite images
have the potential to provide us with objective knowledge of the
whole area.
"For us, a very useful part of the FAME project has been
familiarising ourselves
with the area of Earth Observation, and so making it much more
likely we will
make operational use of it in future."
Related articles
* Après le déluge: ERS and Envisat imagery contribute to
European flood relief
http://www.esa.int/esaCP/ESAZODZPD4D_index_0.html
* Satellite view aids Saône flood mapping
http://www.esa.int/esaSA/ESAOAUUM5JC_earth_0.html
===========
(3) COP9 MEETING IN MILAN, 1-12 DECEMBER
COP9, 26 November 2003
http://www.cop9.info/
COP 9, the Ninth Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework
Convention on Climate Change, will take place in Milan from
December 1 to 12.
The press conference was hosted by the Italian Ministry of
Environment, Altero Matteoli, and the President of the Lombardy
Region, Roberto Formigoni, with the UNFCCC Secretariat's
delegate, Kevin Grose.
"For twelve days, Milan will be at the center of the world's
discussions on climate change", said the President of
Lombardy. "COP 9 is an opportunity to discuss what countries
have done so far to reduce climate-altering emissions and what
still needs to be done."
Great expectations are placed on the Ninth Conference of the
Parties, as shown by the figures Italian Minister of the
Enviroment Matteoli mentioned: "6,000 delegates,
representing the 189 countries which have signed the Climate
Change Convention and 100 IGO's and NGO's, will meet here, in
Milan, to assess the implementation of programs and commitments
made within the Convention and identify new and more resolute
initiatives. The extreme climatic events of this year have
confirmed the vulnerability of our societies to climate
change", Matteoli added. "with serious consequences for
public health, agriculture, water supply, energy production and
distribution.
Climate change is a global challenge requiring a global response.
"The need for a global strategy was also emphasized by Kevin
Grose. "The fact that 2003 is on track to be one of the
warmest years on record should be a warning that we must all take
seriously", he said, quoting the UNFCCC Executive Secretary.
"The Milan conference will evaluate the efforts that
governments have been making to tackle the climate change
challenge", Grose added. "The need for this effort is
clear as the combined emissions of Europe, Japan, the US and
other highly industrialized countries could grow by 8% from 2000
to 2010 (or to about 17% over 1990 levels) despite domestic
measures currently in place to limit them."
The UNFCCC representative concluded by underlining that despite
the 119 signatories to the Kyoto Protocol, Russia's ratification
is required for its entry into force. He then highlighted the
numerous side events organized by institutions and associations
during the 12 days of the conference.
==========
(4) MONSTER SCARE OF THE WEEK: "BILLIONS FACE WATER
SHORTAGES AS GLACIERS MELT"
ABC News, 27 November 2003
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/s999199.htm
The world's glaciers could melt within a century if global
warming accelerates, leaving billions of people short of water
and some islanders without a home, environmentalists said.
"Unless governments take urgent action to prevent global
warming, billions of people worldwide may face severe water
shortages as a result of the alarming melting rate of glaciers,
the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) said in a report.
It said human impact on the climate was melting glaciers from the
Andes to the Himalayas, bringing longer-term threats of higher
sea levels that could swamp island states.
Officials from 180 nations will meet in Milan on December 1-12 to
discuss international efforts to rein in a rise in global
temperatures, blamed by scientists on emissions of gases from
factories and cars that are blanketing the planet.
"Simulations project that a 4.0 Celsius rise in temperature
would eliminate nearly all of the world's glaciers" by the
end of the century, the WWF said.
Himalayan glaciers feed seven great rivers of Asia that run
through China and India, the world's most populous nations,
ensuring a year-round water supply to 2 billion people.
The WWF said that nations most at risk also included Ecuador,
Peru and Bolivia, where melt water from Andean glaciers supplies
millions during dry seasons.
Meanwhile, island states like Tuvalu in the Pacific could be
submerged by rising sea levels triggered by melting glaciers.
Sea levels could rise even further if two of the world's largest
ice caps, in Antarctica and Greenland, melt substantially, though
the report left them out of its reckoning because of their
unpredictability.
Glaciers are ancient rivers of packed snow that creep through the
landscape, shaping the planet's surface.
"Glaciers are extremely important because they respond
rapidly to climate change and their loss directly affects human
populations and ecosystems," Jennifer Morgan said, head of
WWF's Climate Change Program.
"The trends and the experience are quite alarming," she
said.
"Countries have to speed up their action on global
warming."
United Nations projections say global temperatures are set to
rise by 1.4-5.8 Celsius by the end of the century, spurred by
human emissions of greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide.
The WWF urged Russia to ratify the UN's 1997 Kyoto Protocol,
which is a tiny first step towards reining in greenhouse gases
and curbing rising temperatures.
Kyoto will collapse without Russia's backing after the United
States pulled out in 2001.
Those who attend the Milan conference "need to increase
their pressure on Russia", Ms Morgan said, adding that WWF
expected Russia to ratify the accord after elections next month.
The report said that melting glaciers could threaten to drive
animals to extinction, like the Royal Bengal tiger or the tiny
ice worm that feeds on algae growing on glaciers.
Copyright 2003, Reuters
============
(5) REALITY CHECK: ARE THE WORLD'S GLACIERS REALLY MELTING AWAY?
CO2 Science Magazine, March 2003
http://www.co2science.org/subject/g/summaries/glaciers.htm
The advance/buildup or retreat/melting of glacial ice is often
interpreted as a sign of climate change; and teams of
glaciologists have been working for years to provide an
assessment of the state of the world's many glaciers as one of
several approaches to deciphering global climate trends. Although
this effort has only scratched the surface of what must
ultimately be done, climate alarmists have already rendered their
verdict: there has been a massive and widespread retreat of
glaciers over the past century, which they predict will only
intensify under continued CO2-induced global warming. This
assessment, however, may be a bit premature.
The full story must begin with a clear recognition of just how
few glacier data exist. Of the 160,000 glaciers presently in
existence, only 67,000 (42%) have been inventoried to any degree
(Kieffer et al., 2000); and there are only a tad over 200
glaciers for which mass balance data exist for but a single year
(Braithwaite and Zhang, 2000). When the length of record
increases to five years, this number drops to 115; and if both
winter and summer mass balances are required, the number drops to
79. Furthermore, if ten years of record is used as a cutoff, only
42 glaciers qualify. This lack of glacial data, in the words of
Braithwaite and Zhang, highlights "one of the most important
problems for mass-balance glaciology" and demonstrates the
"sad fact that many glacierized regions of the world remain
unsampled, or only poorly sampled," suggesting that we
really know very little about the true state of most of the
world's glaciers.
Recognizing the need for "more comprehensive, more
homogeneous in detail and quality" glacier data (Kieffer et
al., 2000), we shift our attention to the few glaciers for which
such data exist. During the 15th through 19th centuries,
widespread and major glacier advances occurred during a period of
colder global temperature known as the Little Ice Age (Broecker,
2001; Grove, 2001). Following the peak of Little Ice Age
coldness, it should come as no surprise that many records
indicate widespread glacial retreat, as temperatures began to
rise in the mid- to late-1800s and many glaciers returned to
positions characteristic of pre-Little Ice Age times. What
people may find surprising, however, is that in many instances
the rate of glacier retreat has not increased over the past 70
years; and in some cases glacier mass balance has actually
increased, all during a time when the atmosphere experienced the
bulk of the increase in its CO2 content.
In an analysis of Arctic glacier mass balance, for example,
Dowdeswell et al. (1997) found that of the 18 glaciers with the
longest mass balance histories, just over 80% displayed negative
mass balances over their periods of record. Yet they additionally
report that "almost 80% of the mass balance time series also
have a positive trend, toward a less negative mass balance [our
italics]." Hence, although these Arctic glaciers continue to
lose mass, as they have probably done since the end of the Little
Ice Age, they are losing smaller amounts each year, in the mean,
which is hardly what one would expect in the face of what climate
alarmists incorrectly call the "unprecedented" warming
of the latter part of the twentieth century.
Similar results have been reported by Braithwaite (2002), who
reviewed and analyzed mass balance measurements of 246 glaciers
from around the world that were made between 1946 and 1995.
According to Braithwaite, "there are several regions with
highly negative mass balances in agreement with a public
perception of 'the glaciers are melting,' but there are also
regions with positive balances." Within Europe, for
example, he notes that "Alpine glaciers are generally
shrinking, Scandinavian glaciers are growing, and glaciers in the
Caucasus are close to equilibrium for 1980-95." And
when results for the whole world are combined for this most
recent period of time, Braithwaite notes that "there is no
obvious common or global trend of increasing glacier melt in
recent years."
As for the glacier with the longest mass balance record of all,
the Storglaciaren in northern Sweden, for the first 15 years of
its 50-year record it exhibited a negative mass balance of little
trend. Thereafter, however, its mass balance began to trend
upward, actually becoming positive over about the last decade
(Braithwaite and Zhang, 2000).
So, the story glaciers have to tell us about past climate change
is both far from clear and far from being adequately resolved.
Stay tuned.
References
Braithwaite, R.J. 2002. Glacier mass balance: the
first 50 years of international monitoring. Progress in
Physical Geography 26: 76-95.
Braithwaite, R.J. and Zhang, Y. 2000. Relationships
between interannual variability of glacier mass balance and
climate. Journal of Glaciology 45: 456-462.
Broecker, W.S. 2001. Glaciers That Speak in Tongues
and other tales of global warming. Natural History 110 (8):
60-69.
Dowdeswell, J.A., Hagen, J.O., Bjornsson, H., Glazovsky, A.F.,
Harrison, W.D., Holmlund, P. Jania, J., Koerner, R.M.,
Lefauconnier, B., Ommanney, C.S.L. and Thomas, R.H.
1997. The mass balance of circum-Arctic glaciers and recent
climate change. Quaternary Research 48: 1-14.
Grove, J.M. 2001. The initiation of the "Little
Ice Age" in regions round the North Atlantic. Climatic
Change 48: 53-82.
Kieffer, H., Kargel, J.S., Barry, R., Bindschadler, R., Bishop,
M., MacKinnon, D., Ohmura, A., Raup, B., Antoninetti, M., Bamber,
J., Braun, M., Brown, I., Cohen, D., Copland, L., DueHagen, J.,
Engeset, R.V., Fitzharris, B., Fujita, K., Haeberli, W., Hagen,
J.O., Hall, D., Hoelzle, M., Johansson, M., Kaab, A., Koenig, M.,
Konovalov, V., Maisch, M., Paul, F., Rau, F., Reeh, N., Rignot,
E., Rivera, A., Ruyter de Wildt, M., Scambos, T., Schaper, J.,
Scharfen, G., Shroder, J., Solomina, O., Thompson, D., Van der
Veen, K., Wohlleben, T. and Young, N. 2000. New eyes
in the sky measure glaciers and ice sheets. EOS,
Transactions, American Geophysical Union 81: 265, 270-271.
Copyright © 2003. Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide
and Global Change
============
(6) GLACIER MASS BALANCE TRENDS: UP OR DOWN?
CO2 Science Magazine, June 2002
http://www.co2science.org/journal/2002/v5n23c1.htm
Reference
Braithwaite, R.J. 2002. Glacier mass balance: the first 50 years
of international monitoring. Progress in Physical Geography
26: 76-95.
What was done
The author reviewed and analyzed mass balance measurements of 246
glaciers from around the world that were made between 1946 and
1995.
What was learned
Braithwaite's analysis reveals "there are several regions
with highly negative mass balances in agreement with a public
perception of 'the glaciers are melting,' but there are also
regions with positive balances." Within Europe, for example,
he notes that "Alpine glaciers are generally shrinking,
Scandinavian glaciers are growing, and glaciers in the Caucasus
are close to equilibrium for 1980-95." And when results for
the whole world are combined for this most recent period of time,
Braithwaite notes "there is no obvious common or global
trend of increasing glacier melt in recent years."
What it means
"From the results of modeling," Braithwaite writes,
"it seems almost certain that higher air temperatures, if
they occur, will lead to increasingly negative mass
balances." In terms of a global glacier mass balance trend
over the period 1980-95, however, none is apparent. Hence, one is
left to wonder whether (a) the modeling results are wrong, (b)
there has been no global warming over the last two decades of the
20th century, or (c) a and b are both correct.
Copyright © 2003. Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide
and Global Change
=============
(7) THE ICE OF KILIMANJARO
www.john-daly.com, 28
November 2003
Not to be confused with the `snows' of Kilimanjaro (which still
come and go with the weather), the ice is actually an ice cap on
top of the 5,900 metre mountain in northern Tanzania close to the
Equator. That ice cap has been steadily melting away all through
the 20th century and is expected to be fully melted away within
the next 20 years.
Why has it been melting so relentlessly? The greenhouse industry
say `global warming', but then they would say that wouldn't
they? The only problem with that knee-jerk
explanation is that there has been no measurable atmospheric
warming in the region of Kilimanjaro. Satellites have been
measuring temperature since 1979 in the free troposphere between
1,000 and 8,000 metres altitude, and they show no tropospheric
warming in that area. None.
Kilimanjaro is above most of the weather and is thus exposed to
the equatorial sun, a sun which has been hotter during the 20th
century than at any time since the medieval period. That would be
a sufficient explanation in itself for the depletion of the ice
cap. Earlier Kilimanjaro story here
However, a new finding just recently published by Nature,
("African Ice Under Wraps" - 24 Nov 03) points to
de-forestation on the slopes of Kilimanjaro as being the main
culprit. With forests present, the natural updraft from the
slopes carries moist air to the summit and helps reinforce and
sustain the ice cap. Without those forests, the updrafts are dry
and fail to replenish the ravages of the sun on the summit ice
cap. That too is a sufficient explanation. What happens on
Kilimanjaro will also be happening on countless mountains all
over the world where forests on lower slopes have been replaced
by open pasture.
Blaming it all on `global warming' was just too glib and
convenient for an industry desperate to convince a skeptical
public that the end of the world was nigh. With a more
down-to-earth cause like this identified, other
`global-warming-did-it' phenomena should be looked at again for
simple local causes like this.
==============
(8) AFRICAN ICE UNDER WRAPS
Nature, 24 November 2003
http://www.nature.com/nsu/031117/031117-8.html
BETSY MASON
The celebrated ice cap on Africa's loftiest peak could vanish
within 20 years, taking with it a unique scientific resource. Now
a Zimbabwean scientist believes that the ice can be saved - by
covering it with a giant tarpaulin.
Tanzania's ice-crowned Mount Kilimanjaro is not only a top
tourist attraction and a national symbol. Its frozen cap,
gradually deposited over millennia, also records the history of
East Africa's climate.
"If it goes, we'll lose some really precious information
about the climate of the recent past," says climatologist
and Zimbabwe native, Euan Nisbet of Royal Holloway University of
London.
An expedition to Kilimanjaro in 2000 found just 2.2 square
kilometres of ice on the summit - 80% less than covered it in
1912.1 The peak will be bare rock by 2020 if the ice continues to
disappear at this rate, says expedition leader Lonnie Thompson, a
geologist at Ohio State University in Columbus.
Thompson's team collected ice cores that preserve an archive of
African climate over the past 11,700 years - the only record of
its kind.
Although it's tempting to blame the ice loss on global warming,
researchers think that deforestation of the mountain's foothills
is the more likely culprit. Without the forests' humidity,
previously moisture-laden winds blew dry. No longer replenished
with water, the ice is evaporating in the strong equatorial
sunshine.
Quick fix
Reforestation is the best long-term solution, but trees won't
grow fast enough to save the ice, argues Nisbet. A temporary
band-aid is needed. "The most obvious and simple solution
would be to hang a white drape over it to reflect sunlight and
reduce wind," he says.
A white, synthetic drape hung over the 30-metre cliff-like edges
of the ice sheet, where most of the evaporation is occurring,
might just do the trick, Nisbet says.
But other scientists are sceptical. "This is probably not
something that would buy us much time," says Thompson.
"My feeling is that the glaciers will be lost no matter what
we do. Nature is a huge force and it's very hard to stop once
it's in motion."
"It's feasible that we could bring about the glacier's
demise even more quickly," warns climatologist Doug Hardy of
the University of Massachusetts Amherst.
Although the tarpaulin would reflect most of Sun's energy away
from the ice, warmth would penetrate it and be trapped inside.
The cover could then act as a blanket, speeding up the melting.
With an estimated 50-100 tonnes of tarpaulin needed to cover the
ice's edges, not to mention the effort required to place it on
the mountain, the resources might be better spent on collecting
more ice cores, Hardy says.
But there is more at stake for impoverished Tanzania and Africa
than just a record of climate, says Nisbet. "The ice of
Kilimanjaro is an icon for all of Africa," he says.
"Tanzania has tried very hard to protect its natural assets,
and it deserves a bit of help if something can be done."
References
Thompson, L. G. et al. Kilimanjaro ice core records: evidence of
Holocene climate change in tropical Africa. Science, 298, 589 -
593, (2002). |Link|
© Nature News Service / Macmillan Magazines Ltd 2003
================
(9) ADAPTATION, NOT KYOTO, IS THE SOLUTION TO GLOBAL WARMING
Environmental News Network, 28 November 2003
http://www.enn.com/direct/display-release.asp?objid=D1D1366D000000F91CC5C124F47E2ACE
From International Policy Network
Thursday, November 27, 2003
Embargoed for 00:01, Monday, 1 December 2003
Contact: Damian Nixon, +4420 7231 2132
Climate change is considered a major environmental issue.
Conventional wisdom suggests that it will be devastating for the
environment and humanity, and that 'climate control', through
agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol, is the only way to address
it.
But a new book, Adapt or Die: The Science, Politics and Economics
of Climate Change**, challenges the view that climate change will
be catastrophic, and that "climate control" is
necessary.
13 expert contributors argue that policymakers should focus on
strategies to enhance society's ability to adapt to climate
change. As world leaders gather for the COP-9 meeting of the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in
Milan, Italy (1-12 December, 2003), Adapt or Die proposes
constructive alternatives to climate control which would enable
humanity to cope with negative impacts of climate change without
excessive costs.
"Attempts to control the climate through restrictions on
greenhouse gas emissions would have little effect on the earth's
climate, but would harm our ability to adapt to climate change by
slowing economic growth and diverting resources into
inappropriate uses," says the book's editor, Kendra Okonski,
Director of the Sustainable Development Project at International
Policy Network, a London-based NGO.
"To deal with climate change, we should adopt policies that
promote human wellbeing both today and in the future,"
explains Okonski. "We could do this today by eliminating
disease and poverty, developing new technologies, and reducing
humanity's vulnerability to climate change. In contrast, the
Kyoto Protocol requires huge expenditures today for negligible
benefits in the far future."
Under the Kyoto Protocol, parties would restrict emissions of
carbon dioxide in the hope that this might mitigate global
warming. Yet it is increasingly clear that Kyoto has costs with
no benefits, and it is unlikely ever to come into force.
Signatories are therefore searching for alternatives that will
achieve the goals of the UNFCCC, without burdening the world with
unnecessary costs.
The book's 13 experts include, amongst others, Dr. Benny Peiser
of Liverpool John Moores University (UK), Dr. Paul Reiter of the
Pasteur Institut (France), and Julian Morris, Visiting Professor
at the University of Buckingham. They tackle the science,
politics and economics of global warming, showing that:
The Kyoto Protocol and other attempts at climate control will not
achieve the desired end of mitigating climate change or
preventing negative consequences from global warming.
The victims of such policies would be European consumers and
taxpayers, and people in poor countries.
Such policies are extremely expensive, and the desired ends could
be achieved in a more just and cost effective manner.
To reduce the effects of global warming for people everywhere, we
should focus on reducing vulnerability to climate change today.
This means eliminating disease and poverty, enhancing access to
existing and new technologies, and improving infrastructure.
Adaptation to climate change is fostered by policies that promote
certainty, flexibility, and decentralised responsibility.
The benefits of an adaptation strategy for climate change would
spill over to other, as yet unknown future problems that will be
encountered by humanity.
**Adapt or Die: The science, politics and economics of climate
change
Edited by Kendra Okonski
Published by Profile Books, London
December 2003
ISBN 1 86197 795-6
£ 14.99
To be launched on Monday, 1 December, 2003 in London
For more information, contact:
Damian Nixon
Assistant Media Director
International Policy Network
damian@policynetwork.net
============
(10) EUROPE'S REVOLTING DILEMMA: ALLEVIATING HUNGER AND GM
TECHNOLOGY
Nutra Ingrediants, 27 November 2003
http://www.nutraingredients.com/news/news-NG.asp?id=47998
- 27/11/2003 - Hunger is on the rise again after falling steadily
during the first half of the 1990s, warns the UN's annual hunger
report released on Wednesday. In the same week, a Danish task
force asserts that organisations are falling short in their
responsibility to developing countries if they fail to adopt a
position with regards to genetically modified crops and their use
in these countries. Which begs the question - what must the
western world do next?
Published by the UN's Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO),
the report estimates that 842 million people went hungry from
1999-2001. A figure which makes a farce of the World Food Summit
goal of reducing the number of undernourished people by half by
2015.
A timely coincidence, the Danish report published after a
year-long assessment of the pros and cons of using GM crops to
fight poverty and hunger in the third world, throws up an ongoing
moral dilemma. Can the west export foodstuffs and encourage the
farming of GM crops that its own people are refusing to consume
on safety grounds? According to the Danish interdisciplinary
force, yes.
'Development aid organisations face the challenge of preparing
poor developing nations for the coming and proper handling of
genetically modified crops - regardless of whether the
organisations recommend introducing such crops or not,' write the
authors of the report.
Taking a forthright stance, the task force is urging all
development aid organisations to assist developing countries in
the task of building up the proper institutional capacity to make
their own assessments of genetically modified crops.
Strategies to make this possible, write the authors, include the
establishment of relevant public institutions and organisations
responsible for everything from legislation to assessment of
technology and management of environmental problems, as well as
ensuring the ability to enforce laws and regulations related to
the handling of genetically modified crops.
Also a necessity, cite the authors, 'ensuring support for
research into genetically modified crops in the developing
countries to a far larger extent than is currently the case, for
example using participatory/participant-oriented research
methods, strategic research partnerships and twinning
arrangements across national frontiers and across organisations
in both industrialised and developing countries'.
As Europe stands on the brink of tighter rules governing
genetically modified foods, largely created to placate the
suspicious, and increasingly obese, European consumer, nearly 850
million people are hungry. The voice of the Danish task force
echoes a belief that, although present elsewhere today in Europe,
has perhaps never reverberated hard enough. By all accounts, we
should start listening.
=========== LETTERS ==========
(11) TURNING THANKSGIVING INTO OIL
Rick Lanser <rickl@enter.net>
Dear Benny,
I appreciate much of the common-sense, politically-incorrect
material you
share with us on CCNet. One of these was the David Deming
article, REALITY
CHECK: ARE WE REALLY RUNNING OUT OF OIL? My only complain is that
the
closing section, headed "Additional Petroleum
Resources", was all too
brief. It brought to mind an article I had in my archives, which
I thought
I'd share with you. (The web article is more complete than what I
quote
below, and includes pictures.)
Giving thanks in the USA,
Rick Lanser
**************
DISCOVER Vol. 24 No. 05 | May 2003
http://www.discover.com/issues/may-03/features/featoil/
Anything Into Oil
Technological savvy could turn 600 million tons of turkey guts
and other
waste into 4 billion barrels of light Texas crude each year
By Brad Lemley
Photography by Tony Law
DISCOVER Vol. 24 No. 05 | May 2003
In an industrial park in Philadelphia sits a new machine that can
change
almost anything into oil.
Really.
"This is a solution to three of the biggest problems facing
mankind," says
Brian Appel, chairman and CEO of Changing World Technologies, the
company
that built this pilot plant and has just completed its first
industrial-size installation in Missouri. "This process can
deal with the
world's waste. It can supplement our dwindling supplies of oil.
And it can
slow down global warming."
Pardon me, says a reporter, shivering in the frigid dawn, but
that sounds
too good to be true.
"Everybody says that," says Appel. He is a tall,
affable entrepreneur who
has assembled a team of scientists, former government leaders,
and
deep-pocketed investors to develop and sell what he calls the
thermal
depolymerization process, or TDP. The process is designed to
handle almost
any waste product imaginable, including turkey offal, tires,
plastic
bottles, harbor-dredged muck, old computers, municipal garbage,
cornstalks,
paper-pulp effluent, infectious medical waste, oil-refinery
residues, even
biological weapons such as anthrax spores. According to Appel,
waste goes
in one end and comes out the other as three products, all
valuable and
environmentally benign: high-quality oil, clean-burning gas, and
purified
minerals that can be used as fuels, fertilizers, or specialty
chemicals for
manufacturing.
FULL ARTICLE at http://www.discover.com/issues/may-03/features/featoil/
========
(12) ISS HIT/NOT HIT
Marco Langbroek <meteorites@dmsweb.org>
Hello Benny,
The BBC website (same newsitem link as in CCNet) now reports that
the ISS
was apparently not hit, but that the sound heard probably was
from onboard
equipment.
- Marco
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3242712.stm
The International Space Station was not hit by an object in
orbit, say
Russian space officials.
American Michael Foale and Russian Alexander Kaleri reported
hearing a
metallic crushing sound, apparently from an unoccupied part of
the station.
Russian space officials said there appeared to be no damage to
the outside
of the craft or change in air pressure inside, and that the two
men were
safe.
They have now confirmed that the noise came from an onboard
instrument.
Thanksgiving
Michael Foale, the station's commander, and Alexander Kaleri said
they heard
the sound as they were completing their breakfast and cleanup
period.
No outside damage was found and, following an investigation, it
was
concluded that the sound came from equipment inside the space
station.
------
Dr Marco Langbroek
Leiden, the Netherlands
52.15896 N, 4.48884 E (WGS 84)
meteorites@dmsweb.org
http://home.wanadoo.nl/marco.langbroek
------
=============
(13) AND FINALLY: HOW MAGIC MUSHROOMS COULD SOLVE THE WORLD'S
GREENHOUSE GAS PROBLEMS
Canadian Business Magazine, December 2003
http://www.canadianbusiness.com/commentary/article.jsp;jsessionid=KAPOCAKMCGIJ?content=20031208_57284_57284
Forget about those exotic hydrogen fuel-cell cars, and those
hybrid engine systems, as well. An Ottawa-based biotech company,
Iogen Corp., thinks it has found the answer to the world's
greenhouse-gas problems: a fungus once known for its ability to
rot U.S. army tents.
That may seem bizarre, but Iogen is just one of a growing army
touting ethanol in gas tanks as the answer for meeting emission
reductions under the Kyoto Accord. Right now, most ethanol is
made pretty much the way Hiram Walker made booze: producers start
with a grain, usually corn, then ferment and distil it. Iogen,
however, says it has found a way to turn agricultural waste such
as wheat straw into fuel. There are some details still to be
worked out. But technological bugs may be only the beginning of
Iogen's struggle.
Ethanol in the gas tank is hardly a radical idea. It's long been
added in small amounts to gasoline to act as, among other things,
an antifreeze. Newer cars can burn a mixture of gasoline that
contains up to 10% ethanol. What the fuel's advocates dream of,
however, is a world where that ethanol level is bumped up to 85%.
But its clean-burning properties are offset to a considerable
extent by all the oil that's consumed to plant corn, make the
fertilizer, and then to harvest and haul the crop around. Rather
than transforming oil into crops that are transformed into fuel,
Iogen's system starts with stuff like wheat straw that has been
burned or plowed under. Using an enzyme derived from the fungus
that ate the army's tents during the Second World War, Iogen
breaks out the sugars in the straw that can be fermented and
distilled into ethanol. Iogen says the reduction in
greenhouse-gas emissions with their ethanol is about 90%,
compared to 30% for the conventional product.
If its technology is successfully commercialized, Iogen will sell
ethanol makers the enzymes to run their plants. Although Iogen
has only a small demonstration facility, it has some big backing.
Shell Chemicals Canada has invested US$29 million in the company,
and the feds have supplied some R&D cash.
The catch in all this is ethanol's other agenda. Provinces
funding the construction of ethanol plants, such as Saskatchewan,
promote them as new markets for grain farmers. From a grower's
perspective, of course, there's a difference between selling
whole grain and getting some pin money for the stuff you now
leave in the field. Even at the federal level, the Department of
Agriculture has been as prominent as Natural Resources in
promoting ethanol. In the 1970s, Iogen tried to push wood chips
as an energy source. But as the energy crisis abated, so did that
idea. Once again, it's likely to be politics, not technology or
environmental arguments, that decide Iogen's fate in the energy
business.
Copyright 2003, Canadian Business Magazine
-----------
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