PLEASE NOTE:
*
CCNet 127/2001 - 30 November 2001
=================================
I look at you all see the love there that's sleeping
While my guitar gently weeps
I look at the floor and I see it needs sweeping
Still my guitar gently weeps
I don't know why nobody told you how to unfold your love
I don't know how someone controlled you
They bought and sold you.
I look at the world and I notice it's turning
While my guitar gently weeps
With every mistake we must surely be learning
Still my guitar gently weeps
I don't know how you were diverted
You were perverted too
I don't know how you were inverted
No one alerted you.
I look at you all see the love there that's sleeping
While my guitar gently weeps
Look at you all . . .
Still my guitar gently weeps.
--George Harrison (1943 - 2001)
"Indeed, the 1990s were filled with some of the closest
near-misses,
relatively speaking, ever. Of 18 asteroid approaches documented,
dating
back to 1937, 12 of them took place during Bill Clinton's
presidency.
(Blame Monica.) Odds are, we have nothing to worry about. But
odds,
like the times in which we live, have a way of changing."
--Jory John, Onion Online, 28 November 2001
(1) LEONID IMPACTS ON MOON OBSERVED AGAIN
NASA Science News for November 30, 2001
(2) LEONID FLUXES FROM 1994-1998 ACTIVITY PATTERNS
Josep Maria Trigo i Rodríguez <trigo@exp.uji.es>
(3) NASA SELECTS PLUTO-KUIPER BELT MISSION FOR PHASE B STUDY
NASA News, 29 November 2001 <NASANews@hq.nasa.gov>
(4) COMET BORRELLY ROCKS AND ROLLS IN SIMPLE MOVIE
Ron Baalke <baalke@jpl.nasa.gov>
(5) MARS WAS ONCE ALL WET
Mark Hess <mhess@pop100.gsfc.nasa.gov>
(6) PUBLIC BOUNCES BACK AFTER SEPT. 11 ATTACKS, NATIONAL STUDY
SHOWS
Edwards, Michelle R. <medwards@nsf.gov>
(7) ASTEROID SATELLITES & ASTEROID FAMILIES
S. Fred Singer <singer@sepp.org>
(8) RE: "BE OF GOOD CHEER"
Jonathan Tate <fr77@dial.pipex.com>
(9) IMPACT IMAGERY IN THE HEBREW BIBLE
Duncan A. Lunan <astra@dlunan.freeserve.co.uk>
(10) DUNCAN STEEL AND ZODIACAL LIGHTS
Phillip Clapham <carolflip@care4free.net>
(11) INCOMPLETE INFORMATION FOR RELIABLE CALCULATION OF IMPACT
RATE?
Worth Crouch <doagain@jps.net>
(12) AND FINALLY: DON'T BET YOUR ASTEROID ON IT
Onion Online, 28 November 2001
==================
(1) LEONID IMPACTS ON MOON OBSERVED AGAIN
NASA Science News for November 30, 2001
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2001/ast30nov_1.htm?list20392
Explosions on the Moon
During the 2001 Leonid meteor storm, astronomers observed a
curious flash on
the Moon -- a telltale sign of meteoroids hitting the lunar
surface and
exploding.
November 30, 2001: Vivid, colorful streaks of light. A ghostly
flash.
Strange crackling noises and twisting smoky trails. Add to those
a cup of
hot cocoa, and you have all the ingredients for a delightful
meteor shower
... on Earth.
The recent Leonids were a good example. On Nov. 18th our planet
plunged into
a debris cloud shed by comet Tempel-Tuttle. Sky watchers saw
thousands of
meteors -- each streak of light a tiny bit of comet dust
disintegrating in
the atmosphere.
A quarter of a million miles away, another Leonid shower was
happening. But
the recipe was different: Blinding flashes of light. Flying
debris and
molten rock. Sizzling craters. And certainly no hot cocoa! That's
what the
Leonids were like ... on the Moon.
"Like Earth, the Moon also plowed through comet
Tempel-Tuttle's debris field
on Nov. 18th," says Bill Cooke of the NASA Marshall Space
Flight Center.
But, unlike Earth, the Moon doesn't have an atmosphere where
meteoroids
harmlessly disintegrate." Instead, lunar Leonids hit the
ground and explode.
David Palmer, an astrophysicist at the Los Alamos National
Laboratory, saw
just such an explosion from his backyard in White Rock, New
Mexico. The 2001
Leonids were well underway when Palmer trained his 5-inch
Celestron
telescope and a low light video camera on the crescent Moon.
"It was
twilight," says Palmer. "Even so, the flash was bright
enough to detect." He
had spotted a Leonid crashing down near Sinus Media -- a lava
plain on the
lunar equator.
Far from New Mexico, observers on the east coast of the United
States saw
it, too. Using 8 inch telescopes equipped with video cameras,
David Dunham
in Maryland and Tony Cook in Virginia independently recorded the
flash -- a
double confirmation. "We estimate it was at least as bright
as a 4th
magnitude star," says Dunham, director of the International
Occultation
Timing Association.
This marks the second year Dunham and Palmer have seen lunar
Leonids. They
and others video-recorded six meteoroid impacts on the Moon
during the 1999
Leonid meteor storm. The brightness of those flashes ranged from
7th to 3rd
magnitude.
"Actually, we've known for many years that Leonids hit the
Moon," notes
Cooke. "Between 1970 and 1977, Apollo seismic stations
detected impacts
during the Leonids and several other annual meteor showers.
What's new since
1999 is that we're actually seeing the explosions from
Earth."
The first reports of bright lunar Leonids two years ago puzzled
many
scientists. Their calculations suggested that a Leonid hitting
the Moon
would need to mass hundreds of kilograms to produce an explosion
visible
through backyard telescopes. Yet there was little evidence for
such massive
fragments in the Leonid debris stream. Hundred-kilogram
meteoroids hitting
Earth's atmosphere would produce sensational fireballs, brighter
than any
sky watchers actually saw. Furthermore, lunar seismic stations
operating for
years had detected nothing larger than 50 kg.
To solve the mystery, Jay Melosh, a planetary scientist at the
University of
Arizona's Lunar and Planetary Lab and an expert on planetary
impact
cratering, teamed up with Ivan Nemtchinov, a Russian physicist
skilled in
computer simulations of nuclear explosions.
Experience with bombs came in handy solving this problem, says
Melosh:
"Leonid impacts aren't as potent as a nuclear warhead, but
they are
powerful. They hit the Moon traveling 72 km/s or 160,000 mph --
that's 240
times faster than a rifle bullet. In fact, the energy per unit
mass in a
Leonid strike is 10,000 times greater than a blast of TNT."
Using computer programs designed to study bomb blasts, Melosh and
Nemtchinov
discovered that Leonids didn't have to be so massive to produce
flashes as
bright as those detected by Dunham and Palmer. Impactors massing
only 1 to
10 kg could do the job.
"That's more like it," says Cooke. "We
occasionally see kg-sized fragments
burning up in Earth's atmosphere. They appear as very bright
fireballs that
disintegrate completely before hitting the ground." On the
Moon, of course,
there's nothing to stop them from reaching the surface.
According to Melosh, here's what happens when the Moon and a 10
kg Leonid
collide:
Much of the ground within a few meters of the impact point would
be
vaporized, and a cloud of molten rock would billow out of a
growing crater.
"At first the cloud would be opaque and very hot, between
50,000 K and
100,000 K," explains Melosh. "But the temperature would
drop rapidly.
Milliseconds after the initial blast, the cloud would expand to a
few meters
in diameter and cool to 13,000 K. That's the critical
moment," he says,
"when the vapor becomes optically thin (transparent); then,
all the photons
rush out and we can see a flash of light from Earth."
An astronaut watching the event on the Moon, perhaps a hundred
meters or so
from the impact, would be momentarily blinded by the Sun-bright
explosion.
There wouldn't be a deafening report, however, and onlookers
wouldn't be
knocked down. "There's no air on the Moon to carry shock
waves," explains
Melosh. "Even so, you might have to pry some nasty bits of
molten rock out
of your space suit."
Fortunately for future Moon colonists, there's little chance of
being hit.
Cooke explains: "During an intense Leonid meteor storm like
the one Earth
experienced in 1966, the lunar flux of meteoroids more massive
than 10-5 gm
would be 1 per square-km per hour. If we assume really chubby or
bulky
astronauts with a cross-sectional area of 0.5 square-meters, then
the
probability of being hit by a 10-5 gm Leonid is only
0.00025." Such tiny
particles carry enough energy to puncture a spacesuit, but the
astronaut
inside would remain mostly intact, says Cooke. "The
probability of being hit
by something that might totally vaporize you -- like a 10 kg
fragment -- is
a billion times less."
So ... lunar Leonid meteoroid showers might not be as scary as
they sound.
Future denizens of the Moon might even take up a new astronomical
hobby:
ground watching. "I saw a hundred puffs of moondust every
hour," they might
say after a good spate of Leonids. "And, ooh that fireball
... what a
blast!"
===========
(2) LEONID FLUXES FROM 1994-1998 ACTIVITY PATTERNS
>From Josep Maria Trigo i Rodríguez <trigo@exp.uji.es>
Dear Benny,
We attach below information about a new Leonid contribution from
researchers
of the Spanish Fireball and Meteor Network. Our paper has been
published in
the December 2001 issue of "Meteoritics & Planetary
Science".
Please receive our congratulations for your interesting CNNet.
LEONID FLUXES FROM 1994-1998 ACTIVITY PATTERNS
Josep Mª Trigo-Rodriguez 1,2,
Juan Fabregat2
and Jordi Llorca3,4
1 Depto. Ciencies Experimentals, Universitat Jaume I.
2 Departament Astronomia i Astrofisica, Universitat de Valencia.
3 Institut d'Estudis Espacials de Catalunya.
4 Departament Química Inorgànica, Universitat de Barcelona.
The interest of our detailed 1994-1998 analysis of the Leonids
activity
focuses in the reconstruction of the stream spatial structure
during this
cometary return. We have combined 40 independent ZHR
determinations obtained
in the last two centuries with their corresponding orbital
geometry.
Initially we placed all ZHR points and the software apply a
precise
numerical contorning technique to define the averaged density of
the Leonid
stream. We use historical observations obtained after the 1800
return and
the ZHR determinations revised by several authors (see for more
details
historical ZHRs revisions Jenniskens 1996; Brown, 1999). The
result is one
figure that shows an averaged contour plot with the corresponding
Log (ZHR)
isolines.
We inclose below the abstract. For more details please consult
Meteoritics
homepage: http://www.uark.edu/studorg/meteor/public_html/
ABSTRACT: The Leonid shower was observed in November 1998
worldwide in an
intensive campaign without precedent. During this international
effort near
35,500 meteors were reported by members and collaborators of the
International Meteor Organization (IMO) using a standard
methodology.
Despite the absence of a meteor storm in 1998, the rich
observational data
allows to obtain a detailed unprecedented knowledge of the stream
structure
between 1994-1998.
********************************************
Josep M. Trigo-Rodríguez
Prof. Dept. Experimental Sciences
Campus del Riu Sec (E.S.T.C.E)
University Jaume I
12071 Castelló (SPAIN)
SPANISH FIREBALL NETWORK
Homepage: www.spmn.uji.es
E-mail: trigo@exp.uji.es
*********************************************
==============
(3) NASA SELECTS PLUTO-KUIPER BELT MISSION FOR PHASE B STUDY
>From NASA News, 29 November 2001 <NASANews@hq.nasa.gov>
Donald Savage
Headquarters,
Washington
Nov. 29, 2001
(Phone: 202/358-1547)
RELEASE: 01-235
NASA SELECTS PLUTO-KUIPER BELT MISSION FOR PHASE B STUDY
NASA has selected a proposal to proceed with Phase B (preliminary
design
studies) for a Pluto-Kuiper Belt (PKB) mission, intended to
explore the most
distant planet in the solar system. The mission will also explore
the Kuiper
Belt beyond Pluto, a source of comets and believed to be the
source of much of Earth's water and the simple chemical
precursors of life.
The scientific value of this mission is highly dependent on a
2006 launch
that achieves a flyby of Pluto well before 2020. In order to
ensure this
launch date, NASA has established two
conditions that must be successfully met at the conclusion of
Phase B.
First, the mission must pass a confirmation review that will
address
significant risks such as schedule and technical milestones and
regulatory
approval for launch of the mission's nuclear power source.
Second, funds
must be available. Congress provided $30 million in fiscal 2002
to initiate
PKB spacecraft and science instrument development and launch
vehicle
procurement; however, no funding for subsequent years is included
in the
administration's budget plan.
The mission, called New Horizons: Shedding Light on Frontier
Worlds, is led
by Principal Investigator Dr. S. Alan Stern of the Southwest
Research
Institute, Boulder, Colo. He will lead a team including The Johns
Hopkins
University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, Md.; Ball
Aerospace Corp.,
Boulder, Colo.; Stanford University, Palo Alto, Calif.; and
NASA's Goddard
Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md., and Jet Propulsion
Laboratory,
Pasadena, Calif.
"Both proposals were outstanding, but New Horizons
represented the best
science at Pluto and the Kuiper Belt as well as the best plan to
bring the
spacecraft to the launch pad on time and within budget,"
said Dr. Ed Weiler,
Associate Administrator for Space Science at NASA Headquarters,
Washington.
Each team conducted a three-month concept study including
management,
science content, technical aspects, cost and schedule for a
complete
mission, including launch vehicle, spacecraft and science
instrument
payload.
The proposal outlines how the team would undertake the major
science
objectives defined in the January 2001 Announcement of
Opportunity. The
spacecraft would use a remote sensing
package that includes imaging instruments and a radio science
investigation,
as well as spectroscopic and other experiments, to characterize
the global
geology and morphology of Pluto and its moon Charon, map their
surface
composition and characterize Pluto's neutral atmosphere and its
escape rate.
Pluto, the smallest planet, is actually a Kuiper Belt Object, a
class of
objects composed of material left over after the formation of the
other
planets. Pluto has large quantities of ices of nitrogen and
simple molecules
containing carbon, hydrogen and oxygen that are the necessary
precursors of
life. Given Pluto's weak gravity, these ices would be largely
lost to space
if Pluto had come close to the Sun. Instead they remain there as
a
representative sample of the primordial material that set the
stage for the
evolution of the solar system as it exists today, including life.
"Visiting Pluto and other Kuiper Belt objects would be like
visiting a deep
freeze containing samples of the most ancient material in our
solar system,
the stuff that all the other planets including Earth were made
of," said Dr.
Colleen Hartman, Solar System Exploration Director in NASA's
Office of Space
Science. "But the most exciting thing about going to an
unexplored planet is
what we may find there that we're not expecting."
NASA will work with Dr. Stern to further define the costs and to
finalize
the design of the spacecraft and its accommodation of the
instrument sets.
Stern, as Principal Investigator, bringing together teams from
academia,
industry and NASA centers, will lead the PKB mission. It will be
implemented
following the highly successful management model of NASA's
Discovery
Program.
============
(4) COMET BORRELLY ROCKS AND ROLLS IN SIMPLE MOVIE
>From Ron Baalke <baalke@jpl.nasa.gov>
MEDIA RELATIONS OFFICE
JET PROPULSION LABORATORY
CALIFORNIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION
PASADENA, CALIF. 91109. TELEPHONE (818) 354-5011
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov
Contact: Martha J. Heil 818/354-0850
IMAGE
ADVISORY
November 29, 2001
COMET ROCKS AND ROLLS IN SIMPLE MOVIE
NASA scientists have strung together images of comet Borrelly to
produce
short movies of the comet as it travels through space.
In one clip, the bare, rocky, icy nucleus wobbles back and forth
to reveal
its textured surface, with some smooth and some bumpy landscapes.
The
observations were taken when NASA's Deep Space 1 spacecraft was
between
3,700 and 9,500 kilometers (between 2,300 and 5,900 miles) from
the comet in
September 2001.
In the second clip, jets of gas and dust shoot from all sides of
the comet's
nucleus as it rotates a quarter turn. The biggest jet, shooting
from the
central sunlit part of the
comet, is probably in line with the axis around which the nucleus
rotates.
This large jet is eroding the central part of the comet,
smoothing parts of
the terrain into rolling
hills. The erosion will eventually break the comet into pieces.
Coarsely
textured parts of the comet at both ends are geologically
inactive areas.
These images were taken from between 22,500 and 4,980 kilometers
(about
14,000 to 3,000 miles) away.
The images are available online from NASA's Jet Propulsion
Laboratory,
Pasadena, Calif., at
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/videos/solar_system/comets.html
.
NASA TV will broadcast a video file of the comet movies at 12, 3,
6 and 9
p.m. EST Thursday, Nov. 29. NASA TV is located on satellite GE2,
Transponder
9C, audio 3880 MHz; orbital position 85 degrees west longitude,
with audio
at 6.8 MHz.
Scientists are studying these images and other Deep Space 1 data
for a
better understanding of comets and their role in the solar
system. Deep
Space 1's pass through comet Borrelly's surrounding cloud of gas
and dust
yielded the best pictures ever of a comet's rocky, icy nucleus.
The images
appear to show the comet rotating but it is actually the
spacecraft that
changed position as it passed close to the comet's nucleus.
Deep Space 1 completed its primary mission testing ion propulsion
and 11
other advanced, high-risk technologies in September 1999. NASA
extended the
mission, taking advantage of the ion propulsion and other systems
to
undertake this chancy but exciting, and ultimately successful
encounter.
More information is available on the home page at
http://nmp.jpl.nasa.gov/ds1/
.
Deep Space 1 was launched in October 1998 as part of NASA's New
Millennium
Program, which is managed by JPL for NASA's Office of Space
Science,
Washington, D.C. The California Institute of Technology manages
JPL for
NASA.
Image credit: NASA/JPL
============
(5) MARS WAS ONCE ALL WET
>From Mark Hess <mhess@pop100.gsfc.nasa.gov>
William
Steigerwald
NASA Goddard Space Flight
Center
November 29, 2001
Phone:
301/286-5017
E-mail: wsteiger@pop100.gsfc.nasa.gov
RELEASE NO: 01-109
MARS WAS ONCE ALL WET
Although covered by frozen deserts today, Mars could have been
born with
more water in proportion to its mass than the Earth, according to
new
observations from NASA's Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer
(FUSE)
spacecraft.
The new research is the first detection of molecular hydrogen
(H2) in the
upper atmosphere of Mars. Molecular hydrogen, which consists of
two hydrogen
atoms, can be formed from the breakup of water, which is
comprised of two
hydrogen atoms bound to an oxygen atom (H2O).
With the result, Dr. Vladimir Krasnopolsky of the Catholic
University of
America, Washington, D.C., and Dr. Paul Feldman of the Johns
Hopkins
University, Baltimore, MD, were able to derive the quantity of
Martian water
lost to space and estimate the amount of water Mars had shortly
after its
formation.
"Our result is an important clue to reconstruct the history
of Martian
water, because with it and other results, we can estimate the
volume of
primordial Martian oceans," said Krasnopolsky, who is lead
author of a paper
on the research to be published in the November 30 issue of the
journal
Science.
"We calculate that if the initial quantity of water on Mars
could have been
evenly distributed across the planet somehow, it would have been
equivalent
to a global Martian ocean at least three-quarters of a mile (1.25
kilometers) deep. This is 1.3 times more water per mass than the
Earth." An
ancient ocean could have covered most of the northern hemisphere
of Mars,
which is a vast basin according to a topographic survey by NASA's
Mars
Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft.
Mars is a mystery because it has features, such as those
resembling dry
riverbeds, that imply it was quite wet in its past. Since Mars is
apparently
so dry now, a primary goal of NASA's Mars exploration program is
to
determine what happened to all that water and discover how much
remains.
Understanding the history of Martian water is of interest because
liquid
water is required to support known forms of life. With such a
history,
scientists will learn if Mars was once capable of supporting
life.
Ultraviolet radiation from the Sun energizes H2 molecules in the
Martian
upper atmosphere, causing them to glow with ultraviolet light as
well.
Krasnopolsky and Feldman determined the quantity of H2 molecules
present
(only about 15 parts per million) from the intensity of their
faint
ultraviolet emission as recorded by the advanced detectors on
FUSE.
They compared the amount of H2 to the amount of deuterium in the
Martian
atmosphere, obtained from a 1997 observation by Krasnopolsky
using the
Hubble Space Telescope. Deuterium is a form of hydrogen made
heavier due to
the presence of a neutron in its nucleus. Like hydrogen,
deuterium can link
to an oxygen atom and another hydrogen atom to form water, which
in this
case is called "heavy water" due to the inclusion of
the more massive
deuterium atom (HDO).
Both forms of water are broken down by solar ultraviolet
radiation and form
some quantities of H2 and HD, respectively. H2 and HD rise high
in the
Martian atmosphere where they may be broken down to their
component atoms by
chemical reactions. Due to their random thermal
(temperature-related)
motion, collisions with energetic particles, and chemical
reactions, a
certain percentage of H and D atoms, and H2 and HD molecules,
will have
enough velocity to escape the pull of Mars's gravity, so Mars
gradually
loses its hydrogen and deuterium to space. Hydrogen loss (or
deuterium loss)
equates to water loss because the atoms are no longer available
to recombine
and form water in the Martian atmosphere.
Since deuterium is heavier than hydrogen, less deuterium will
escape because
it takes more energy to get it moving at the necessary speed. By
measuring
the amounts of deuterium and molecular hydrogen in the Martian
atmosphere,
the team discovered the degree to which deuterium is
preferentially left
behind, called the fractionation factor.
Because deuterium is left behind more often, the portion of
Martian water
that is heavy water rises over time. In fact, earlier
measurements revealed
that Martian water is 5.5 times richer in heavy water than the
water on
Earth.
Scientists assume that the Earth and Mars were created with the
same initial
proportions of heavy water and normal water, called the D to H
ratio. If
this is correct, once the rate at which deuterium builds up -
determined
using the fractionation factor - is known, they can work
backwards to
determine how much additional water would be required to dilute
the current
Martian water so that its D to H ratio is the same as Earth's.
However, this requires that the current amount of water on Mars
be known.
Mars is a frigid world, so most of its water is ice. The team
used
measurements of the volume of the Martian polar caps by the MGS
spacecraft
for an estimate of the water remaining on Mars today. Additional
water may
remain frozen in the Martian soil, but this quantity is unknown.
However,
any water found there only increases the current amount of
deuterium-enriched Martian water, which will require an even
larger
primordial supply to dilute it to an Earth-like level.
The team could calculate backward for as long as the
fractionation factor
can be applied, which extends to a period about 3.6 billion years
ago. Prior
to that, the Martian surface was a lot warmer due to heat left
over from
Mars's formation, and much of the water was in vapor form. This
permitted a
much greater quantity of water to escape Mars via a different
process called
hydrodynamic escape.
Other researchers previously determined the D to H ratio for
Martian water
at the end of the hydrodynamic escape period some 3.6 billion
years ago by
deriving it from the analysis of the D to H ratio in Martian
meteorites.
Using the derived ratio for the end of hydrodynamic escape,
Krasnopolsky and
Feldman calculate that the amount of water required to dilute the
D to H
ratio in the current Martian water supply so that it matches the
D to H
ratio of that earlier era is equivalent to a global ocean 100
feet (about 30
meters) deep.
Adding a 30-meter global Martian ocean to the current supply
gives the
estimated water remaining on Mars after the hydrodynamic escape
period.
Since the Martian D to H ratio at the end of the hydrodynamic
escape era is
still higher than the terrestrial ratio, the team calculated that
a much
larger volume of water would have been required to dilute the
Martian water
supply at the end of hydrodynamic escape so that it matched the D
to H ratio
in Earth's water. It is this final calculation that yields such
an abundant
estimate of the water present on Mars shortly after its formation
about 4.5
billion years ago.
For an image and more information, refer to:
http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/20011129marswet.html
=============
(6) PUBLIC BOUNCES BACK AFTER SEPT. 11 ATTACKS, NATIONAL STUDY
SHOWS
>From Edwards, Michelle R. <medwards@nsf.gov>
Media
Contact:
October 24,
2001
William
Harms
NSF PR
01-85
(703) 292-8070/wharms@nsf.gov
Program Contact:
Pat White
(703) 292-8762/pwhite@nsf.gov
PUBLIC BOUNCES BACK AFTER SEPT. 11 ATTACKS, NATIONAL STUDY SHOWS
Confidence levels at 30-year high
Americans responded with resilience to the events of Sept. 11,
registering
large increases in their feelings of national pride, confidence
in many
institutions, and faith in people, according to the National
Tragedy Study
by the National Opinion Research Center at the University of
Chicago.
The study, publicly funded by the National Science Foundation,
and privately
by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the Russell Sage
Foundation, also
contrasted public response to Sept. 11 with response to the 1963
assassination of
President John F. Kennedy (also studied by NORC). People
reported a large drop in their
normally positive feelings toward life after the Kennedy
assassination, but
reported few similar responses after Sept. 11, Smith found.
"Emotionally, Kennedy's assassination seems to have had a
larger impact on
psychological well being than the terrorist attacks," said
Tom W. Smith,
Director of the General Social Survey (GSS) at NORC and co-author
of a
report on the findings, "America Rebounds: A National Study
of Public
Responses to the September 11 Terrorist Attacks."
Researchers found a much stronger feeling of anger after the
Sept. 11
attacks than after the 1963 assassination. In 1963, people
reported feeling
ashamed as well as angry; however, feeling ashamed was not a
strong response
to the terrorist attacks.
The study, which measured a wide range of attitudes and included
an over
sample (special survey) for New York, was based on random
telephone calls to
more than 2,100 U.S. residents in the two weeks following Sept.
11. The results
were compared with similar questions asked recently on the GSS, a
continuing
study of American values, attitudes and behaviors on a wide
variety of subjects.
The GSS provides a baseline for American opinions and is used
extensively by
social scientists to chart and study changes in public
perceptions.
"We found, with the exceptions of New Yorkers, that
Americans appear to have
had weaker physical reactions to the recent national tragedy than
to the
Kennedy assassination," said Kenneth Rasinski, a co-author
of the report and
senior research scientist at NORC. For instance, 68 percent of
people felt
very nervous and upset as a result the 1963 tragedy, compared
with 51
percent in 2001. While 57 percent of the people reported
feeling dazed and
numb in 1963, 46 percent had a similar response in 2001. In
contrast, 60
percent of the people in 2001 reported crying, compared to 53
percent in
1963.
Researchers asked about 15 physical and emotional symptoms and
found 11 of
these symptoms were reported by a significantly higher proportion
of New
York City residents than by the rest of the nation.
According to Rasinski,
New Yorkers were more likely to have felt very nervous and tense,
cried, had
trouble getting to sleep, not felt like eating, felt more tired
than usual,
had rapid heartbeats or headaches, lost their temper more than
usual, had
sweaty and clammy hands, felt dizzy at times, and felt like
getting drunk.
Among the findings contrasting post-Sept. 11 attitudes with
earlier General
Social Surveys:
· Increased faith in fellow citizens. 67 percent (up 21
percentage points)
said that most people are helpful, and 63 percent (up 12
percentage points)
said that they felt people in general are fair.
· Increased confidence in selected institutions. 77 percent (up
27
percentage points) had a great deal of confidence in the
military, compared
with 61 percent in 1991 during the Gulf War.
Confidence in the executive branch tripled to 52 percent. People
also
expressed more confidence in organized religion, corporations and
Congress.
This was the highest confidence level in these areas in nearly
three
decades.
· Increased feelings of national pride. 97 percent (up 7
percentage points)
felt they felt they would rather be citizens of the U.S. than of
any other
country.
Other findings of the National Tragedy Study:
· Stronger reactions in New York. Residents of New York were
more likely
than the nation as a whole to report feeling very nervous and
tense. They
also reported crying more often.
· Positive action. 49 percent made contributions to
charities, and 24
percent donated or tried to donate blood.
Other findings comparing the Sept. 11 attacks to the 1963
assassination:
· More prayer. 84 percent reporting saying "special
prayers," compared with
75 percent in 1963.
· Television as a key source. 37 percent first learned of the
Sept. 11
events from television, while 24 percent learned of the 1963
tragedy that
way. In 1963, 36 percent learned of the assassination by
personal contact;
in 2001, 15 percent learned it that way.
Attachment: For the explanatory charts see:
http://www.nsf.gov/od/lpa/news/press/01/pr0185.htm
============================
* LETTERS TO THE MODERATOR *
============================
(7) ASTEROID SATELLITES & ASTEROID FAMILIES
>From S. Fred Singer <singer@sepp.org>
Dear Benny
Apropos the asteroid studies reported in SciAm (Nov. 27) and in
the Nov 23
issue of Science, I have three comments:
1. The asteroids created in the breakup should preserve (through
their
rotation) the angular momentum of the parent body (plus impactor
-- if
created that way-- or as an exploding planet - -- a la van
Flandern). It
would be interesting to see if the data allow sufficient
discrimination.
2. We next come to the formation of asteroidal satellites (or
binary
asteroids). This would be quite common if there is complete
disintegration
of the parent body (van Flandern, Michel) and relatively rare if
only a
small fraction of the parent creates asteroids in an
impact. Observations
may help in deciding (Chapman, Merline).
3. Finally, in interpreting the data, we must consider the
lifetime T of an
asteroidal satellite. I have analyzed this stability
problem and concluded
that T will be quite short if the satellite's orbital
period is less than
the rotation period of the asteroid -- and vice versa. This
result holds
whether the orbit is prograde or retrograde and does not
depend on tidal interaction (which, while present, should be of
lesser
importance).
I will try to publish these results soon.
Best
Fred
======
(8) RE: "BE OF GOOD CHEER"
>From Jonathan Tate <fr77@dial.pipex.com>
Andy Smith made some very good points in his recent posting.
In Britain we are only frustrated by the lack of government
action. The
scientific community in the UK is coming round nicely - witness
the
developing Atlas project. Patience and fortitude are precisely
what we have
been showing (surprisingly) over the past six or seven years, and
it's
paying off.
The Spaceguard Centre is in the process of setting up the
Spaceguard Network
that will, initially, be a national network of information nodes.
We have
already begun to spread to the international arena, with
interested parties
in 12 countries so far (and we have Spaceguard UK members in 11
more),
including the US where "The Watch" is the most active
non-professional
advocate of NEO studies. All of this will eventually link into
the global
network under the auspices of the Spaceguard Foundation to
produce an
international mouthpiece that is supported by individual national
organisations worldwide. The CCNet will obviously have a
major part to play
in this process.
In the UK he already have the politicians engaged (stand-by!),
but that is
not the end of the problem. It is the people who pay the
politicians who
have to want things to happen - the public.
Jay Tate
=============
(9) IMPACT IMAGERY IN THE HEBREW BIBLE
>From Duncan A. Lunan <astra@dlunan.freeserve.co.uk>
Dear Benny,
Apropos of possible descriptions of impact events c.2350 BC,
there is a
passage in the Bible which may be historically older than the
Genesis
account of the Flood, which seems to be a watered-down version
(as it were)
of the Mesopotamian one.
In Psalm 18, after David calls to God for help, this is what
happens:
"Then the earth shook and trembled; the foundations also of
the
hills moved and were shaken, because he was wroth. There went up
a smoke
out of his nostrils, and fire out of his mouth devoured:
coals were
kindled by it. He bowed the heavens also, and came down:
and darkness
was under his feet. And he rode upon a cherub, and did fly:
yea, he did fly
upon the wings of the wind. He made darkness his secret place;
his pavilion
round about him were dark waters and thick clouds of the skies.
At
the brightness that was before him his thick clouds passed, hail
stones and
coals of fire. The Lord also thundered in the heavens, and the
Highest gave
his voice: hail stones and coals of fire. Yea, he sent out his
arrows, and
scattered them; and he shot out lightnings, and discomfited them.
Then the
channels of waters were seen, and the foundations of the world
were
discovered at thy rebuke, O Lord, at the blast of the breath from
thy
nostrils."
Very figurative, but maybe a folk memory?
Best wishes,
Duncan Lunan.
=============
(10) DUNCAN STEEL AND ZODIACAL LIGHTS
>From Phillip Clapham <carolflip@care4free.net
>
Reply to Duncan Steel regards Silbury Hill as a pyramidal design
inspired by
the zodiacal lights.
I can see how he arrived at this conclusion and I accept the
pyramids of
Egypt and central America may have been inspired by the tropical
zodiacal
lights during a phase of enhancement. However, Silbury Hill is
quite a bit
further to the north and there is no other similar monument of a
pyramidal
shape in the northern hemisphere as far as I am aware. Silbury
Hill is
anaconic and is not strictly a pyramid, although some authors and
commentators have suggested a link exists, including those who
think the
Egyptians actually sailed into Atlantic waters and reached
Salisbury Plain.
Silbury has a flat top and that design is quite different to the
pyramids.
The flattened area is a purposeful design feature that could have
been used
to mark out certain constellations or features in the sky, such
as Orion
drifting across the horizon. From Avebury circle the top of
Silbury can just
be seen peeking above Waden Hill, just barely so. As Waden Hill
is used for
growing cereals for most of the summer Silbury is actually
invisible (See
John Devereux, The Sacred Place, Cassell & Co., 2000).
However, after
harvest, at Lughnasad, or possibly later in the year, during
October or
November, the view of Silbury might actually coincide with
the appearance
of the god Lugh, possibly the equivalent of Egyptian Horus.
Silbury can be seen in full only from certain locations. These
include West
and East Kennet long barrows and The Sanctuary. It is a very
large mound
built on rising ground and not as a profile against the skyline.
I suggest
it was constructed as a sight line to the stars, or a particular
group of
stars associated with the hypothetical Clube and Napier
comet. This
journeyed through a number of constellations such as Leo and
Bootes etc. It
appeared variously out of Taurus, in the south as a companion of
Sirius, and
in the north as a companion of the Great Bear. Lugh may of course
have a
connection with Perseus as an alternative scenario. Silbury is
conical and
it therefore has a shape that resembles a comet head as viewed
from planet
earth. It is the same shape as a cauldron and many gods have
strong
associations with these cooking pots that stood on three legs
etc. It is
basically the same shape as the holy hill of Glastonbury Tor, and
of
Cymbelines Castle on the Chiltern escarpment. Belinus was a
Celtic god of
Beltane fires. Silbury is a giant mound. The outsides were
constructed using
great lumps of white chalk rock. White is the colour of the
stars, of comets
at night, and the colour of many gods from Osiris to
Quetzalcoatl, from Isis
to Snow White, from Aphrodite to Ishtar etc.
I suggest the concept of mounds was to depict a feature of the
gods, if not
an actual image. Frederick Green was ridiculed when he claimed to
have found
the image of Horus or Osiris in predynastic Memphis, a mound of
pure white
sand. However, an American expedition in the late 20th century
confirmed
what he had found and it seems that a stone version of the sand
mound was
incorporated into the Sed court at the pyramid complex. This
mound therefore
differed as a feature of the gods. It was quite separate to the
pyramid
shape.
Long and trapezoidal barrows are a feature of the 5th and 4th
millenniums BC
and the transition to round barrows and bell barrows appears to
have been
after the end of the 3rd millennium, in Britain, brought by
immigrants from
the continent. Hence, the round shape of the god may have been a
feature of
the 3rd millennium sky, a factor that may account for the bald
gods of
Europe, the shorn hair of Samson, and the bright image devoid of
a cometary
tail. In other words the comet may have been in the process of
breaking up
in the 3rd millennium. This is when Silbury was built. The head
of the comet
itself would have been the shape particular to that moment in
time.
Phillip Clapham
=============
(11) INCOMPLETE INFORMATION FOR RELIABLE CALCULATION OF IMPACT
RATE?
>From Worth Crouch <doagain@jps.net>
Dear Dr. Peiser:
After reading the CCNet - 29 November 2001, article (1) NEW
STUDIES SHARPEN
PICTURE OF NEAR-EARTH ASTEROIDS it seems as though the article
again
reinforces the concept that predicting practical probabilities of
collisions
between NEO and the Earth are not yet possible.
>From other competent sources I previously concluded that it
has not yet been
determined how many Near Earth Asteroids (NEA) there are or how
many could
significantly damage the Earth. Short period comet paths are not
exactly
known and future long period comets emerging from the Oort cloud
are totally
unknown and can surprise the Earth at any time. The new studies
from the
CCNet article help fill in astronomers' views of how near Earth
asteroids
orbit the sun and how they ended up as NEA in the first place.
The article
basically states that the picture emerging is one in which
asteroids in the
belt between Mars and Jupiter collide, shatter and then clump
together into
families, migrate into regions of space where the gravity of
Jupiter can jar
them loose from their orbits and finally take up residence close
to Earth.
"It's pretty clear that [near-Earth asteroids] come from the
main asteroid
belt between Mars and Jupiter," explains Joseph Stuart of
the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology, an author of one of the reports. These
new studies,
are "refining the details of how that might happen."
Stuart, who compiled
data from the Lincoln Near-Earth Asteroid Research (LINEAR)
project, found
1,200 more kilometer-size rocks orbiting the sun than recent
counts have
detected. "It's key for astronomers to know how many such
objects there are
and how they revolve around the sun in order to assess the risk
that one
might collide with Earth, he notes."
Therefore, randomness in space, is currently a deficiency of
human knowledge
and the number of unknown NEA along with newly emerging NEA, from
the main
asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter, create a chaotic
situation causing
collision probabilities between a NEO and the Earth to be
presently without
merit. It then seems just a matter of time coupled with the
chaotic nature
of asteroid/comet orbits, and the eventual emergence of an
unknown
threatening comet from the Oort cloud before the Earth will be
impacted by
an asteroid or comet capable of catastrophic devastation or at
best great
regional damage. And that's the foremost argument for a space
defense
against NEO's. Unfortunately some still believe that a cosmic
collision with
the Earth occurs only once every 100,000 years, but probabilities
like that
are based on incomplete evidence, which results in flawed
probability ratios
and an incorrect idea that the Earth is safe from collisions in
our near
future. Consequently, if we don't protect the Earth now we may
not have a
near future.
Sincerely,
Worth F. Crouch
(Talako)
http://pweb.jps.net/~doagain
============
(12) AND FINALLY: DON'T BET YOUR ASTEROID ON IT
>From the Onion Online, 28 November 2001
http://www.orion-online.net/vnews/display.v/ART/2001/11/28/3c04283a79d78
By Jory John
Orion columnist
November 28, 2001
Finally, we have something to celebrate, folks.
As reported by Reuters: "Astronomers delivered a little
piece of good news
... we are much less likely to get wiped out by a big asteroid
than
previously thought."
Yay.
Put these odds in your pipe and smoke it in a designated outdoor
area: There
is only a one in 5,000 chance that an asteroid big enough to wipe
out
civilization, including boy bands and kittens, will hit the earth
in the
next 100 years.
I only have one question before we don the luminous, solar party
hats and
start celebrating in a manner reminiscent of those wacky,
carefree dinosaurs
of 65 million years ago (who probably should've brushed up on
their
"atmospheric fireball and devastating collision defense
techniques,"
although it's easy to say "I told you so" 65 million
years later). Yes,
here's the question: That's good news?
All right, I lied, I have another question: Isn't one in 5,000
still kind of
bad?
I mean, isn't it a bit freakish that mass extinction of life on
Earth is a
lot more likely than winning that free Cap'n Crunch T-shirt or
the Sprite
bottle cap game?
(Personally, I've been buying Power Bars left and right, but,
while I have
indeed received powerful sustenance and nourishment, we'll most
likely see
Armageddon - the day, not the movie - before I win a free
wristband or
whatever it is they're giving away this time.)
Sure, the odds are a bit of an improvement from the previously
held belief
of a one in 1,500 indescribably indescribable end, but goodness
me, I'm
awash with feelings of helplessness that 1.) Leno, for some
cosmic reason -
it might even be your fault - keeps beating Letterman in the
ratings; 2.)
When it comes to any one of the estimated 9,000 objects in
near-Earth
orbits, any one of which has the potential to lower property
values and
increase general extinction worldwide, there just isn't all that
much we
(including Bruce Willis as himself) can do about it.
In a sensational and pessimistic article by Gerrit L. Verschuur
(odds are
one in 12 that you've already forgotten his name), Jonathan Tate
of the
Armagh Observatory (sic) compares Earth to a person standing on a
crowded
highway with cars passing every which way, going to and fro,
point A to
point B, often failing to signal while changing lanes, if the
highway is
anywhere near Chico.
"You are unlikely to wait for a car to pass and then step
out into the road
thinking you will be safe for the next 10 seconds," Tate
said, from what I
picture to be his fortified asteroid bunker, deep in the heart of
an
undisclosed location, while passing the ketchup to Dick Cheney.
"This would
be an act of folly, yet that is how we tend to think about the
threat of any
natural disaster."
First of all, Tate, don't tell me what I think. Nobody knows what
I think.
Nobody!
Second of all, you're absolutely right. Good call, ol' sport.
Earth is,
indeed, blindly navigating a hostile and uncaring universe, a
universe that
doesn't give a rat's patootie about our hopes, our dreams and our
big plans
for Christmas break. (Or maybe it does. Who am I to pigeonhole an
entire
universe?)
The point is, this amazingly expanding universe I speak of plays
by its own
rules, and although we cosmic specks operate under the illusion
of order and
control, let's try to remember what most likely happened to the
aforementioned cosmic dinosaur specks. (No dinosaurs could be
reached for
comment.)
According to Sky & Telescope Magazine, the closest unexpected
visit of a
near-Earth object (NEO) in recorded history occurred on Dec. 9,
1994, (the
heights of grunge - many of you youngsters weren't yet born) when
the object
passed 100,000 kilometers from our humble blue-green planet.
Indeed, the 1990s were filled with some of the closest
near-misses,
relatively speaking, ever.
Of 18 asteroid approaches documented, dating back to 1937, 12 of
them took
place during Bill Clinton's presidency. (Blame Monica.)
Personally, I think this stuff is fascinating, and that too
little is known
about impact hazards in general.
Odds are, we have nothing to worry about. But odds, like the
times in which
we live, have a way of changing.
Jory John can be reached at: joryj@webtv.net
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SAIL ON GEORGE!
>From Jeff Kanipe <kanipe@earthlink.net>
That was a thoughtful tribute to Mr. Harrison, Benny, and as a
long-time
fan, I thank you. Some of your readers probably already know that
Mr.
Harrison (as well as the other Fab Four) have asteroids named
after them.
Asteroid Harrison is currently located in the predawn sky in
eastern Virgo.
Its V-magnitude is 10.35, so you'll need a dark sky and at least
a 4- or
5-inch telescope to glimpse it. Fortunately, it's located in a
fairly
star-poor region of sky, but it will nevertheless be one of the
faintest
specks in the field of view.
December 1 position of Harrison (according to my ephemeris
program):
RA: 14h 35.04'; Dec. -7° 13.07'
Position December 5:
RA: 14h 42.7'; Dec. -7° 38.46'
Roughly speaking, this is some 16 to 17° ENE of Spica.
Distance: 3.4 AU
Disk illumination: 98.8%
Sail on George!
Jeff Kanipe