PLEASE NOTE:
*
CCNet 116/2003 - 4 December 2003
A BLAST FROM HEAVEN? MAJOR IMPACT DISASTER 500 YEARS AGO?
---------------------------------------------------------
What may be a geologic smoking gun has now turned up in 1,000
feet of water
just south of New Zealand. Columbia University geologist Dallas
Abbott has
found what appears to be an impact crater 13 miles across,
implying that
something enormous, maybe half a mile wide, smashed into the
crust there.
If further research confirms that the circular depression is a
recent
crater, it would lend dramatic ammunition to Bryant's
controversial
scenario: Five hundred years ago or so, as Europe was beginning
its
colonial explorations, a comet or perhaps an asteroid plunged to
Earth
seaward of Australia's New South Wales coast.
--Charles W. Petit, USNews.com, 8 December
2003
A former NASA chief historian said Tuesday that research colonies
could be set
up on the moon in about 30 years, and the facilities also would
allow scientists
to monitor asteroids and meteors that could devastate Earth.
Roger Launius, who
now serves as a historian for the National Air and Space Museum,
said the events
portrayed in the movie "Armageddon" are not that
far-fetched. "Somewhere out there
is an asteroid or a meteor with our name on it. It does
exist."
--Brian College Eagle, 3 December
2003
Are we actually any safer today as a result of the Spaceguard
Survey?
I believe we are. Each NEA that is discovered represents one
fewer
unknown object out there that can hit the Earth. In 2008, when we
will have discovered 90% of the NEAs large than 1 km, we will
have
reduced the risk by about the same percentage. These stories are
not
reported in the media, but they represent the real accomplishment
of
the Spaceguard Survey.
--David Morrison, Mercury, December 2003
(1) A BLAST FROM HEAVEN? MAJOR IMPACT DISASTER 500 YEARS AGO?
USNews.com, 8 December 2003
(2) SMALL NEAR-EARTH ASTEROIDS POSE MORE IMMINENT THREAT
USA Today, 2 December 2003
(3) LUNAR RESEARCH COLONIES SHOULD MONITOR NEAR EARTH OBJECTS
Brian College Eagle, 3 december 2003
(4) OPINION: ARE ASTRONOMERS CRYING WOLF?
David Morrison
(5) SOLAR ACTIVITY REACHES NEW HIGH: MAY HAVE EFFECTED
TERRESTRIAL CLIMATE
PhysicsWeb, 2 December 2003
(6) WILL U.S. PRESIDENT BUSH ANNOUNCE PERMANENT MOON BASE?
National Review Online, 3 December 2003
(7) ANNUAL PLANETARY PROTECTION ACTIVITY SUMMARY
Andy Smith <astrosafe22000@yahoo.com>
(8) BAJO HONDO: A POTENTIAL GIANT METEORITE IMPACT CRATER IN
CHUBUT, PATAGONIA, ARGENTINA.
Max Rocca <maxrocca@hotmail.com>
(9) REPEATED BLOWS: THE GREAT DYING
Michael Paine <mpaine@tpg.com.au>
(10) AND FINALLY: KYOTO BAZAAR: BRIBES NOT GOOD ENOUGH. WE WANT
BILLIONS, RUSSIA TELLS EUROPE
Space Daily, 3 December 2003
==============
(1) A BLAST FROM HEAVEN? MAJOR IMPACT DISASTER 500 YEARS AGO?
USNews.com, 8 December 2003
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/issue/031208/misc/8meteor.htm
By Charles W. Petit
In 1989, Edward Bryant climbed a point on the southeast coast of
his
native Australia with a colleague and found an odd jumble of
boulders
well above the surf. A big wave, he thought, maybe a tsunami from
an
earthquake, must have tossed them up there. Over the next few
years,
however, the University of Wollongong geologist explored hundreds
of
miles of coast and found more signs of wave action, hundreds of
feet
above the water--too high for any quake-spawned surge.
An astonishing hypothesis of devastation from outer space formed
in his
mind. It gathered some praise, along with many ferocious
brickbats from
doubting colleagues. But what may be a geologic smoking gun has
now
turned up in 1,000 feet of water just south of New Zealand.
Columbia
University geologist Dallas Abbott has found what appears to be
an
impact crater 13 miles across, implying that something enormous,
maybe
half a mile wide, smashed into the crust there.
If further research confirms that the circular depression is a
recent
crater, it would lend dramatic ammunition to Bryant's
controversial
scenario: Five hundred years ago or so, as Europe was beginning
its
colonial explorations, a comet or perhaps an asteroid plunged to
Earth
seaward of Australia's New South Wales coast. It would have sent
mega-tsunamis ripping into nearby islands and Australia, where
Bryant
has found not just rocks but trees and beach sand hurled far up
bluffs
and cliffs, along with whirlpool-carved cavities as much as 150
feet
across--testimony, he says, to the sea's onslaught. At one place,
Jervis
Bay, waves apparently surmounted a headland 420 feet high.
"Only a
bolide could do this," says Bryant, using a technical term
for a
sky-bursting cosmic missile. Geologists know such things can
happen--a
much bigger impact is believed to have ended the reign of the
dinosaurs--but no such catastrophe is known in recorded history.
People would notice something like that. Sure enough, Bryant
found
recorded tales from Australian aborigines and New Zealand's Maori
people
recounting how, not long before the arrival of Europeans, the sky
heaved
and split, stars fell, and immense floods swept the land.
Aborigine
tales told of a huge, disintegrating ball of blue fire shooting
overhead. Around 1500, Maori people on New Zealand's South Island
abandoned the seashore and moved inland. Huge impact-generated
waves,
Bryant thinks, may have destroyed not only their villages but
also beds
of shellfish that provided food. "It all added up," he
says. "Something
big hit the Earth, near here."
In 2001, he published a textbook, Tsunami--The Underrated Hazard,
including his circumstantial tale of a missile from space. Some
colleagues liked his daring conjecture. "It's a big idea,
and it
deserves attention," says Victor Baker, a planetary sciences
professor
at the University of Arizona who has visited Bryant's tsunami
sites and
believes the signs of gargantuan waves are legitimate. Something
has to
account for them, he says, "whether or not it is an object
into the
sea." Others are deeply skeptical of Bryant's evidence and
impact scenario.
New Zealand geologist James Goff, a former government researcher,
calls Bryant a usually excellent scientist who has "gotten
religion" on
mega-tsunamis. In a paper just out in the Journal of the Royal
Society
of New Zealand, he rips Bryant's thesis apart. Goff for years has
honed
the idea that tsunamis did indeed sweep much of his island nation
around
1500, driving the Maori inland. But he says the waves were of the
more
ordinary sort that earthquakes generate, a few tens of feet high
at
most, not what he calls Bryant's "mega-tsunami from
hell." He says
Bryant has joined events that may have happened centuries apart
and
mistranslated Maori place names to stress a link with fire and
celestial
destruction--taking the Maori syllable Ka to mean fire, for
example,
when Goff says fever is a better meaning.
But Goff wrote his critique before last month's Geological
Society of
America meeting in Seattle, where Abbott reported her discovery.
Early
this year, intrigued by Bryant's book, she had pored over
topographic
maps of the seafloor in the region and found an apparent impact
scar on
the edge of the continental shelf just south of New Zealand.
When Abbott checked samples that oceanographic expeditions had
scooped
from the area, she found shattered minerals typical of meteor
impacts. A
field of tektites--globules of rock that melted and cooled in
midair--spreads to the southeast of the crater just as it should
from a
impacter striking at a low angle from the northwest, the
direction
Bryant infers from the Australian tales. The crater, which Abbott
calls
Mahuika after a Maori fire deity, lies in a spot that would send
waves
against Australia at just the angle Bryant had already
calculated. "It's
young, almost surely less than a thousand years," she says,
judging from
the near absence of the sediment that normally builds up on the
ocean floor.
"This is pretty exciting if the story holds up," says
Steven Ward, a
geophysicist at the University of California-Santa Cruz, who has
a keen
interest in comet and asteroid impacts. Goff agrees, but with
neither a
firm date for the crater nor sure evidence that cataclysmic waves
hit
New Zealand at the same time as it was formed, "the jury is
still out,"
he says. Abbott hopes to settle the issue by gathering and dating
samples of debris. An impact would have scattered material for
hundreds
of miles, creating a distinctive layer in the New Zealand soil,
says Ward.
But even if a giant rock did plunge into the sea 500 years ago,
it may
not be enough to explain Bryant's catalog of devastation. Ward
calculated that an object that leaves a 13-mile-wide crater off
New
Zealand might send waves washing 100 feet up the Australian coast
1,000
miles away, but not a cliff-scaling 400 feet. Bryant, however,
has no
doubts. "I don't like to believe it, but we had something
mighty big hit
out there."
Copyright © 2003 U.S. News & World Report, L.P.
===========
(2) SMALL NEAR-EARTH ASTEROIDS POSE MORE IMMINENT THREAT
USA Today, 2 December 2003
http://www.usatoday.com/news/science/2003-12-02-asteroids-usat_x.htm
By Dan Vergano, USA TODAY
Bad things can come in little packages, astronomers warn. So
after a decade of searching for massive asteroids, they are
turning to the threat posed by smaller, more common space rocks
closer to Earth.
Most worries about impacts from space have centered on objects
more than half a mile across. They are thought to smack into
Earth every few million years, some with such force they trigger
mass extinctions like the one that ended the age of the dinosaurs
65 million years ago.
But a recently released NASA "Near-Earth Object Search"
report scheduled for discussion at the American Geophysical Union
meeting next week calls for better observation of smaller
asteroids.
These rocks wouldn't trigger the global devastation of their
larger brethren, but their impacts could still cause massive
local damage, chiefly from tidal waves.
Because asteroids about one-twelfth of a mile across hit about
once every 1,000 years, they are a more imminent threat than
giant impacts, the report warns. It was written by a team of
scientists headed by space-surveillance expert Grant Stokes of
MIT's Lincoln Laboratory.
Asteroids come and go by Earth. In August, one nearly
three-quarters of a mile wide named QQ47 received considerable
media attention because of reports that it might hit Earth in
2014. But like many asteroid scares in recent years, astronomers
quickly dismissed any impact possibility after more observation.
But sometimes impacts happen. Most recently, an asteroid perhaps
200 feet wide blasted the Tunguska region of Siberia in 1908,
flattening almost 800 square miles of forest.
Five years ago, NASA began looking for larger asteroids and
comets, hoping to detect 90% of them by 2009. About 60% of the
estimated 1,200 large objects traveling near Earth have already
been discovered.
Among smaller asteroids nearby, perhaps half a million are
"potentially hazardous," the report says. It suggests:
* Tidal wave deaths from an ocean impact would be lower than past
predictions, a few hundred people perhaps, because evacuations
should lessen the risk.
* Searches for small comets should be bypassed, because they
represent only 1% of the impact risk.
* A seven- to 20-year search for nearby small asteroids that pose
about 90% of the impact risk would cost under $400 million.
A mixture of ground telescopes and space probes would fit the
criteria for the search recommended by the report. A satellite
trailing near Venus to watch for sun-grazing asteroids combined
with ground-based telescopes offers a quicker, but slightly more
expensive, approach than relying on an Earth-orbiting telescope
for asteroid warnings.
Copyright 2003, USA Today
===========
(3) LUNAR RESEARCH COLONIES SHOULD MONITOR NEAR EARTH OBJECTS
Brian College Eagle, 3 december 2003
http://www.theeagle.com/aandmnews/120303nasahistorian.htm
By CHRISTOPHER FERRELL
Eagle Staff Writer
A former NASA chief historian said Tuesday that research colonies
could be set up on the moon in about 30 years, and the facilities
also would allow scientists to monitor asteroids and meteors that
could devastate Earth.
Roger Launius, who now serves as a historian for the National Air
and Space Museum, said the events portrayed in the movie
"Armageddon" are not that far-fetched.
"Somewhere out there is an asteroid or a meteor with our
name on it," said Launius, who was the featured speaker at
the Texas A&M University Distinguished Lecture Series.
"It does exist."
He said the best place to look into space for giant projectiles
would be from the moon, which does not have the light or
atmospheric conditions that hamper telescopes on Earth. Launius
also said a day will come when nuclear weapons will be stored on
the lunar surface to try and destroy any incoming projectiles big
enough to destroy entire cities or even species.
Such a projectile is what many scientists now believe killed the
dinosaurs, he said.
The historian said he would like to see NASA make a return to the
moon. The moon could one day resemble Antarctica, he said, with
different countries coming together to do research there.
And, Launius said, if the human race is to expand its presence in
the solar system, the moon would be the best testing ground for
the equipment that would be needed. It would take astronauts
about three days to reach the moon from Earth but months or years
to land on other planets.
FULL ARTICLE at http://www.theeagle.com/aandmnews/120303nasahistorian.htm
================
(4) OPINION: ARE ASTRONOMERS CRYING WOLF?
Mercury, November-December 2003, pg 15
By generating scary headlines, NEO searches have become a victim
of their own success.
by David Morrison
Asteroid on Impact Trajectory with Earth! Astronomers Issue
Warning!
Space Rock Discovered Two Days after Passing Earth! Headlines
like
these appear every few months. Usually the scare is withdrawn
within
a day or two, although the media don't always report the revised
orbits. What is happening here? Has the asteroid impact danger
increased?
The primary reason for these media flaps is that the Spaceguard
Survey is discovering many more asteroids that come close to the
Earth. These asteroids have always been there, but previously
they
passed by unseen. The increased number of "near misses"
is evidence
of the success of Spaceguard, which has already found more than
60%
of the near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) larger than 1 km in diameter
--
that is, large enough to threaten global environmental damage if
they
hit.
The second reason for the headlines is that astronomers are
posting
their orbital computations on the Internet. Both the JPL Sentry
system and the NEODys system at the University of Pisa update all
asteroid orbits daily, and the results are there for anyone
(including a reporter on a slow news day) to see. You can see
these
results and much additional asteroid information at
<neo.jpl.nasa.gov>
One of the most recent examples was NEA 2003 QQ47, found by the
MIT
LINEAR telescopes on August 24. As is the case with many newly
discovered NEAs, the initial orbit was highly uncertain and
included
several low-probability cases of possible future impacts. At one
point, with only 6 days of observations reported, the formal odds
of
an impact in 2014 briefly rose slightly above one-in-a-million,
and
then went virtually to zero as more data were reported.
This is standard operating procedure for dealing with newly
discovered NEAs. In this case, however, the government-supported
UK
NEO Information Center decided this asteroid deserved special
attention, and on September 2 they issued a press release. The
story
was widely reported as an actual impact threat, especially in the
UK.
When the inevitable refinement of the orbit came as new
observations
were made, some in the press accused the astronomers of crying
wolf.
QQ47 is only the most recent example of such misunderstandings.
The
first modern impact scare was associated with asteroid 1997 XF1.
In
March 1998, Brian Marsden, Director of the Minor Planet Center at
the
Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, posted a Press
Information Sheet in which he stated that "the chance of an
actual
collision is small, but it is not entirely out of the
question". The
story of this "prediction" appeared worldwide. Within a
few hours
more careful orbital calculations showed that the odds of hitting
were extremely small, and when new observations became available
a
day later, the chances of impact went to zero. For many in the
media,
it seemed that astronomers had screwed up.
The XF11 episode demonstrated the need for both rapid calculation
of
impact odds and better coordination among scientists before they
'go
public'. Astronomers reacted by bringing in the NEO Working Group
of
the International Astronomical Union for coordination, and in
1999 we
adopted the Torino Scale for communicating the impact risk to the
public (see <impact.arc.nasa.gov>. The Torino Scale uses a
color-coded set of warnings that reflect both the probability of
impact and the size of the impactor. While it has helped in
communications, the scale suffers from the fact that only the
lowest
level warnings (scale values of 0 or 1) have been exercised.
Impacts
are so rare that there have been no serious warnings and indeed
none
are expected, unlike the Richter Earthquake Scale, which is used
more
often.
Other asteroids that made the headlines were 1999 AN10, 2000
SG344,
2002 MN, and 2002 NT7. Each of these is described in the News
Archive
section of the NASA Impact Hazard website
<impact.arc.nasa.gov>. No
two situations were alike, but each led to scare headlines. This
recurrent problem has led some astronomers to suggest that we
should
not post preliminary orbits on public websites. However, this
information is needed by others (including many dedicated
amateurs)
who make follow-up observations of the most interesting NEAs. In
addition, most of us feel that withholding information would
subject
us to even greater criticism from the media and the public. The
impact hazard is real, and many people mistrust governments and
scientists to deal with such information. The best policy is
openness, together with an effort to educate the media and the
public
as to what a "one-in-a-million" chance of impact really
means.
Are we actually any safer today as a result of the Spaceguard
Survey?
I believe we are. Each NEA that is discovered represents one
fewer
unknown object out there that can hit the Earth. In 2008, when we
will have discovered 90% of the NEAs large than 1 km, we will
have
reduced the risk by about the same percentage. These stories are
not
reported in the media, but they represent the real accomplishment
of
the Spaceguard Survey.
--
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
NEO News is an informal compilation of news and opinion dealing
with
Near Earth Objects (NEOs) and their impacts. These opinions are
the
responsibility of the individual authors and do not represent the
positions of NASA, the International Astronomical Union, or any
other
organization. To subscribe (or unsubscribe) contact
dmorrison@arc.nasa.gov.
For additional information, please see the
website http://impact.arc.nasa.gov.
If anyone wishes to copy or
redistribute original material from these notes, fully or in
part,
please include this disclaimer.
===========
(5) SOLAR ACTIVITY REACHES NEW HIGH: MAY HAVE EFFECTED
TERRESTRIAL CLIMATE
PhysicsWeb, 2 December 2003
http://physicsweb.org/article/news/7/12/2
Geophysicists in Finland and Germany have calculated that the Sun
is more magnetically active now than it has been for over a 1000
years. Ilya Usoskin and colleagues at the University of Oulu and
the Max-Planck Institute for Aeronomy say that their technique -
which relies on a radioactive dating technique - is the first
direct quantitative reconstruction of solar activity based on
physical, rather than statistical, models (I G Usoskin et al.
2003 Phys. Rev. Lett. 91 211101)
Sunspots are produced by magnetic activity inside the Sun. The
more active the Sun is, the more spots are produced. Observations
of sunspots began in 1610 - soon after the telescope was invented
- and no other directly obtained data exists from before this
time.
Now, Usoskin and co-workers have used the concentration of
beryllium-10 in polar ice as a proxy for historic levels of solar
activity. Beryllium-10 is produced when cosmic rays interact with
particles in the Earth's atmosphere. The radioisotope then falls
to the ground where it is stored in layers of ice. The Sun's
magnetic field can deflect cosmic rays away from the Earth, so a
stronger field should lead to less beryllium-10 being produced,
and vice versa.
Using modelling techniques, the Finnish team was able to extend
data on solar activity back to 850 AD. The researchers found that
there has been a sharp increase in the number of sunspots since
the beginning of the 20th century. They calculated that the
average number was about 30 per year between 850 and 1900, and
then increased to 60 between 1900 and 1944, and is now at its
highest ever value of 76.
"We need to understand this unprecedented level of
activity," Usoskin told PhysicsWeb. "Is it is a rare
event that happens once a millennium - which means that the Sun
will return to normal - or is it a new dynamic state that will
keep solar activity levels high?" The Finnish-German team
also speculates that increased solar activity may be having an
effect on the Earth's climate, but more work is needed to clarify
this.
Author
Belle Dumé is Science Writer at PhysicsWeb
==========
(6) WILL U.S. PRESIDENT BUSH ANNOUNCE PERMANENT MOON BASE?
National Review Online, 3 December 2003
http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/powell200312030858.asp
By Dennis E. Powell
When President Bush delivers a speech recognizing the centenary
of heavier-than-air-powered flight December 17, it is expected
that he will proffer a bold vision of renewed space flight, with
at its center a return to the moon, perhaps even establishment of
a permanent presence there. If he does, it will mean that he has
decided the United States should once again become a space-faring
nation. For more than 30 years America's manned space program has
limited itself to low Earth orbit; indeed, everyone under the age
of 31 - more than 125 million Americans - was born since an
American last set foot on the moon.
The speech will come at a time when events are converging to
force some important decisions about the future of American
efforts in space. China has put a man in orbit, plans a launch of
three Sinonauts together, and has announced its own lunar
program. The space shuttle is grounded, and its smaller sibling,
the "orbital space plane," may not be built. The
International Space Station, behind schedule, over budget, and of
limited utility, has been scaled back post-Columbia.
The content of the speech does not appear to be in doubt; the
only question is timing.
FULL ARTICLE at http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/powell200312030858.asp
=========== LETTERS ==========
(7) ANNUAL PLANETARY PROTECTION ACTIVITY SUMMARY
Andy Smith <astrosafe22000@yahoo.com>
Hello Benny and CCNet,
We are preparing our annual activity summary and this is an early
draft input to you all.
We highly value the quality of this network and want to do all we
can to advance it.
Asteroid/Comet Impact Early-Warning(EW)
Thanks to the many dedicated folks at the asteroid telescope
facilities, we should again pass
the 400 NEO mark, this year. With about a month to go, we
estimate about 420 new discoveries,
for the year. This is a remarkable increase...of about two
orders-of-magnitude...in a little
over a decade.
We increased this rate by one order-of-magnitude (from single to
double digits), at the start
of the last decade(1990's)....thanks to Tom Gehrels and the
SPACEWATCH Program (Tucson, Arizona).
We made the next big jump in 1998...thanks largely to the Air
Force LINEAR Program (Socorro,
New Mexico), the AF/NASA NEAT Program (JPL/California and
Hawaii), the LONEOS Program (Lowell
Observatory at Flagstaff, Arizona), the CATALINA Program
(Tucson)and many other institutional
and individual telescopes, which helped with discovery and with
confirmation.
LINEAR(LI) found about 51% of the new total (now at 375), NEAT(N)
found 18% and SPACEWATCH(S)
and LONEOS(LO) found about 13%, each. These four outstanding
teams found 95% of the catch
.....CONGRATULATIONS and THANKS to all who helped.
About 80% of the new NEO were smaller than a kilometer.
SPACEWATCH did an outstanding job,
in this regard....with 96% of their finds in the very numerous
and dangerous (and harder to
find) sub-kilometer(SK) range. The other programs had about 80%
of their discoveries in the
SK range.
The global search effort is still finding a disproportionately
small number of the SK NEO,
because our telescopes and cameras have great difficulty finding
the smaller objects. It is
clear that we need larger terrestrial systems and a few orbital
telescopes, to assist the
existing search teams. The new designs (Pan-STARRS, LSST, GAIA,
etc.), which are now being
developed, promise to improve this situation. Perhaps some of
this technology will be on-line
within the next 5 years.
With the planned improvements, we should be able to approach
our(IPPA) goal of 10,000 NEO
per year (almost another two orders of magnitude increase). At
that global discovery rate,
we should be able to complete most of the critical inventory
within about a decade....and
to reduce our major impact risk, tremendously. Without these
improvements, it may take well
over two centuries.
About 8% of the new crop was in the ATEN class and the APOLLO and
AMOR objects were almost
evenly divided, in the remainder.
In addition to an effective global search capability, we need a
24/7 (all hours and all
days) emergency alarm capability and a quick-reaction deflection
capability (for those
intruders that may arrive without a warning). These capabilities
will also be possible, when
the new EW improvements are added.
NEO Hunting Is Difficult
The LINEAR discovery data shows how difficult it is to find NEO.
For each new NEO discovery,
there were about 7,800 observations; 1,200 asteroid sightings and
160 new minor planet
discoveries. A new comet was found for every 12 new NEO.
Data-Base Growth
Also, our very important global minor planet(MP) data-base
continues to grow (exponentially)
and the Minor Planet Center is now storing data on about
21,000,000 objects. 64% of them
are numbered and about 2,500 of them are NEO (almost 8,500 MP for
every NEO).
Most of these objects have been found in the last decade and the
MPC capability to store
and process this data continues to be stretched. We thank Brian
Marsden and the MPC staff,
the International Astronomical Union (IAU), the Smithsonian,
Harvard and the others who make
this facility possible and we urge every effort to increase the
MPC capability to keep-pace
with the rapid growth of the data-base.
We also greatly appreciate the help that is being provided by
allied data centers, like
the NEODyS, in Italy, and the NASA NEO Office (JPL). The
SPACEGUARD Foundation, the Planetary
Society and others have also done a lot, and we thank them, as
well.
Help Wanted
We continue to seek more help, in this vital hunt, from the large
survey telescopes, around
the World (like the U.S. SLOAN and the U.K. NEWTON), and to
encourage such new asteroid hunting
facilities as the Japanese SPACEGUARD facility and the Arizona
CATALINA facility (facilities
in the U.S. and Australia) to join in or return to this vital
hunt and to keep the CCNet advised
of their progress.
We are also urging other countries to join in this vital hunt and
we noted, with delight,
the interest shown by our Russian colleagues (item 2, CCNet 25
Nov. 2003) in forming a
Trans-European NEO/Space Debris monitoring system (TEN). This
capability may be essential, if
we are to meet the annual 10,000 NEO discovery rate goal and we
wish the parties involved lots
of success. The World community has made tremendous progress, in
the last few years....but we
have so much more to do to "win the race against the
rocks".
In addition to the progress made by the large institutions and
facilities, we are also delighted
with the progress made by Roy Tucker (Goodricke-Pigott
Obs.,Tucson), in the development of
his new individual asteroid hunting system and we are looking
forward to the global placing
of many of these systems, soon. The installations are not very
expensive (few tens of thousands
of dollars) and we urge anyone interested to contact Roy. We also
want to thank the other
dedicated private NEO astronomers, around the World, for their
efforts.
Impact Prevention Progress
Progress is certainly also being made toward global NEO defense.
The 2004 Planetary Defense
Conference (PDC2004) program has been finalized and is on the
Web. Also, the private B612
Program, which is aimed at the development of an NEO Tug, is
underway and will report at the
PDC. This new initiative represents a major step toward a
priority global NEO deflection program.
DEEP IMPACT Progress
The NASA DEEP IMPACT Program is progressing toward launch in late
2004 and the impact of
Comet 9P/Tempel 1, in 2005. This mission will conduct many tests
and demonstrate our capability
to deliver a deflecting payload to an NEO.
Several members of the global space technical community have now
developed the launch and
spacecraft technologies needed for PD....and we are on the way to
an effective emergency
response capability....all within a little more than a decade
after our wake-up call, in 1989
(1989FC near-miss).We continue to urge the integration of all
national capabilities into a
high-priority global preparedness program.
Communications Progress
We are grateful to Space.Com, Sky and Telescope, the Planetary
Society, the AIAA, NASA and
many other internet, print, television and movie oranizations for
the features they have
produced, this year, to inform and to educate the global public
about the NEO dangers and
the things being done to protect the public and our
environment...and we express our special
thanks to the many concerned reporters and writers who have
generated those features. All
we need, now, is more governmental support.... higher priorities
and modest funding increases,
from the concerned countries and from the United Nations.
Civil Emergency Preparedness
The increased awareness of the need for emergency preparedness,
is helping us to raise the
global level of awarenes of NEO dangers and to raise the interest
in meeting the related
preparedness needs. We feel high planning and operational
priorities should be given to
emergency food supplies (family and community) and to rapid 24/7
coastal-city tsunami evacuation
planning, training and provisioning.
Super-Volcano Emergency Preparedness
We are also adding super-volcano (SV) monitoring and preparedness
to our list of planetary
safety concerns...with special emphasis on the Yellowstone
Complex. Each of the SV (Yellowstone
in Wyoming, Long Valley in California and the Jemez or Valle
Caldera in New Mexico) is capable
of producing 1,000 cubic kilometer range explosion ejecta. This
level of massive explosive
energy would be roughly equal to about a 400 meter NEO impact
(Class 4 Asteroid/Comet Emergency,
on our 10-step Richter-type scale). Such an event would cause
massive global climate changes
and massive starvation, that would continue for many years.
The Yellowstone activity level is of greatest concern
(temperature, outgassing, seismic
and surface changes). Increased monitoring is being
reflected in considerable Web status
information...thanks to the U.S.Geological Survey and many
contributing government and
university specialists.
Impact Effects Studies
This year has seen many new impact studies initiated...including
the evaluations at Tunguska
and the meteorite impact studies related to recent impacts in
Russia and India, etc. There
have also been new studies initiated, to find other major impact
sites (P-T, etc.). We welcome
these studies and are encouraging other similar
investigations......because our survival
preparedness effectiveness is directly related to our
understanding of both the immediate
and long-term effects of impact.
The electromagnetic (EM) effects associated with the Vitimsky
impact, in Russia, last year,
illustrate the need for additional impact data and studies. This
small object (few meters wide)
seems to have caused major local EM disturbances and it clearly
identified this as an important
study area. It suggested that we could have major communications
difficulties, in an A/C
emergency, and that we should plan for multi-technology emergency
communication systems.
As we observe Thanksgiving, in the U.S., this week, we are
especially grateful for another
year of bright sunlight and freedom from a major ACE threat. We
have been blessed with 14
such good years, since our 1989 wake-up call and we pray for the
time we need to prepare
to prevent an impact, if we can, and to survive one, if we
must.
We again salute all who are contributing to this vital global
effort.
Cheers,
Andy Smith/International Planetary Protection Alliance
(IPPA)
astrosafe22000@yahoo.com
==========
(8) BAJO HONDO: A POTENTIAL GIANT METEORITE IMPACT CRATER IN
CHUBUT, PATAGONIA, ARGENTINA.
Max Rocca <maxrocca@hotmail.com>
Dear Benny:
Below you will find a report concerning a very interesting crater
in Southern Argentina:
Bajo Hondo.
Regards: Max
-----------
BAJO HONDO: A POTENTIAL GIANT METEORITE IMPACT CRATER IN CHUBUT,
PATAGONIA, ARGENTINA.
Maximiliano C. L. Rocca,
Mendoza 2779-16A, Ciudad de Buenos Aires, Argentina, (1428DKU), maxrocca@hotmail.com).
This work was funded by The Planetary Society, CA.USA.
Argentina, in South America, has a total surface of 2,776,888
square kilometers. The
southern part of Argentina has a total surface of 786,112 square
kilometers. It is
composed of five Provinces: Neuquen, Rio Negro, Chubut, Santa
Cruz and Tierra del Fuego.
As of 2003 no impact sites have been reported in this wide
region. However, there should
be new examples waiting identification.
A search for potential impact sites was performed by the
author through the examination
of 76 color LANDSAT satellite images ( 1:250,000 - resolution =
250 meters) at the
Instituto Geografico Militar ( IGM ) of Buenos Aires city. The
whole Southern Argentina
was inspected. When a potential candidate was found a more
detailed study of the site was
done. Topographic maps were consulted. If available the
radar X-SAR satellite images of the
Deutsche Forschungsanstalt fur Luft-und Raumfahrt, (DLR), Berlin,
Germany , were also
examined.
In many cases aerial photographs ( 1: 60,000 - IGM ) were
consulted too. The final step
was to perform a review of the available published geologic
information of each site at
the Servicio Geologico y Minero Argentino (SEGEMAR), (
=Geological Survey of Argentina ),
in Buenos Aires.
BASIC DEFINITIONS
-SIMPLE CRATER: The smallest impact structure: A bowl-shaped
depression less than 5 km
in diameter. One of their main characteristics is the presence of
a raised rim.
-COMPLEX STRUCTURES: Large impact structures (from 5 km. up to
400 km. in diameter)
characterized by an almost perfect circular shape, a central
uplifted region, a generally
flat floor, and extensive inward collapse around the rim. Erosion
can alter the above
mentioned characteristics. [French, 1998]
SELECTION CRITERIA
Not all bowl-shaped depressions and circular structures are giant
meteorite impact sites.
Volcanic calderas and craters may mimic them at first glance.
Sinkholes and karstic low
basins are very similar too. However, a few guidelines help to
avoid confusion. Volcanic
structures usually show lava flows and hardly ever have raised
rims. The only exception are
Maars. Sinkholes do not have raised rims.
SOME RESULTS
A very promising candidate site was found in Chubut Province:
Bajo Hondo (42º15' S - 67º 55' W).
From the beginning Bajo Hondo crater was evidently one of the
most promising sites under study.
In the LANDSAT satellite images at the scale 1:250,000 and
1:100,000 it was well visible as
a 4.8 kilometers isolated crater in a large brown basaltic
plateau.
This is not the first time Bajo Hondo has been catalogued as a
potential meteorite impact
crater. A previously published report about it as a potential
meteorite impact was based on
the examination of radar X-SAR images ( 1: 360,000 ) from the
DLR, Germany [Gorelli, 1998]
When aerial photographs of the area were obtained from the IGM(
1: 60,000) they proved this
crater was in fact very similar to Barringer's meteor crater in
Arizona, USA, but of a much
more gigantic size. Bajo Hondo has a 100 to 150 meters
raised rim. This fact tells us about
an origin by explosion. Only explosion craters have raised rims.
In the aerial photos there
are also visible some 50-60 meters wide boulders resting on the
crater's rim. Again this is
a good proof of an explosive origin. Its proportions match
perfectly those of a simple impact
crater.
Bajo Hondo is located in the Somuncura plateau, 10 km. SE to the
Sierra deTalagapa stratovolcano.
The Somuncura plateau has a total surface of about 25,000 square
kilometers and it is one of
the largest volcanic plateaux in Southern Argentina. It is formed
by volcanic rock eruptions
that began in the Eocene and finished during the Quaternary. The
first igneous episode took
part with the intrusion of basic alkaline bodies and basaltic
lavas. During the Oligocene,
pyroclastic deposits covered the whole area. The pyroclastic
eruptions were followed by an
extensive basalt eruption around 33- 25 Ma. In some locations
trachyte lavas were erupted
previously or after the basic volcanism. During the Miocene more
basic lavas were erupted.
The last occurrence of volcanism consists of basaltic volcanoes
built in the Tertiary and
Quaternary in the consolidated lavic structural plateau [Ardolino
and Franchi, 1993].
The Sierra de Talagapa, which is part of the Somuncura plateau,
consists of a large 25x10
kilometer stratovolcano. Surrounding a central area of
trachytic rock eruptions there are
large areas covered by acid pyroclastic eruptions ( the
Talagapa's ignimbrite deposits)
and basic lava floods ( Isotopic ages for this basic lavas =
20-19 Ma ). The large Talagapa
volcanic center was active during late Oligocene-early Miocene
times erupting both pyroclastic
ignimbritic flows and basaltic lava flows [ Ardolino, 1987;
Ardolino and Delpino, 1986 ].
Bajo Hondo has been interpreted in the past as a collapsed
basaltic caldera [Ardolino, 1987;
Ardolino and Delpino, 1986].The same happened in the case of
Lonar Lake, India: a 1.8
kilometers in diameter well confirmed impact crater in the Deccan
Basaltic plateau,
[Fredriksson et. al., 1973 and 1979]. Close examination of
satellite LANDSAT images, aerial
photographs, its published geologic map and a review of the
geological characteristics of
Bajo Hondo reveals flaws in the volcanic caldera interpretation.
The lava in the surrounding plateaux was erupted from Sierra de
Talagapa volcano during the
Oligocene-Miocene. The crater is located on those older lava
floods. The Miocenic lavas came
first, then the crater: this is a fact.
In the color satellite images and aerial photographs there are no
clear evidences of lava flows
coming from Bajo Hondo itself.
The association of lava floods to Bajo Hondo is quite doubtful.
Probably the reported ones
[Ardolino and Delpino, 1986 ] were erupted by Sierra de Talagapa
and not by Bajo Hondo itself.
There are no differences in the colour, the roughness, the flux
direction or the erosion degree
between the lavas erupted by Sierra de Talagapa and the lavas
located all around Bajo Hondo.
The stratigraphy of the area is also more consitent with
the idea that the lavas were erupted
from Sierra de Talagapa and not from Bajo Hondo itself.
A reported "pyroclastic cone" located in the
inner Western rim of Bajo Hondo [Ardolino and
Delpino, 1986 ] is probably just an eroded and collapsed part of
that rim. This fact is very
evident in the aerial photographs. There is also good evidence of
uplifted strata exposed in
the inner rims of Bajo Hondo. Uplifted Talagapa's basaltic rock
strata were probably
misinterpreted as "vertical or almost vertical basaltic
dykes located in the inner rims of
Bajo Hondo" by the volcanologists [Ardolino and
Delpino, 1986]. This last fact is key to prove
a meteoritic origin for this crater. Uplifted vertical or nearly
vertical strata is a
characteristic of meteorite impact crater's rims.
Rocks exposed on Bajo Hondo's rims are clearly pyroclastic:
1) Lapilly-like basaltic breccia enclosing irregular clasts and
blocks up to 3 meters
in diameter.
2) A great abundance of 13 to 7 centimeter wide brown-redish
scoriaceous bombs showing
aerodynamic shapes and deformation. Its outer area is often
melted to a crust of vesicular
to bubbly glass. The peculiar shape of those glass bomb bodies
prove that whilst still in
a viscous state they must have flown through the air i.e. were
ballisticaly transported.
The same type of rocks are present in Lonar Lake's crater
rim. They are:
1) Coarse basaltic breccia.
2) Completelly melted black basalt glass bombs.The largest pieces
of glass bombs are 15 to
10 centimeters in diameter and are flattened and wrap around
underlying basaltic clasts
[Fredriksson et al. , 1973 and 1979].
A 4.8 kilometers circular crater with a raised rim which shows
uplifted strata, pyroclastic
and breccia rock depossits and no erupted lava flows has most of
the characteristics of a
giant meteorite impact site. So, probably, Bajo Hondo is not a
collapsed basaltic caldera.
Bajo Hondo could be a gigantic maar. Maars are landforms caused
by volcanic explosion, and
consist of a crater, which reaches or extends below general
ground level and is considerable
wider than deep, and a surrounding rim constructed of material
ejected from the crater.
The explosion takes place when a tongue of lava contacts an
underground water's nappa.
The force of the vapor in expansion opens the crater. Maars are
usually filled with water
and form natural lakes. Usually maars come in clusters [ Ollier,
1967 ]. However, Bajo Hondo
crater is an isolated feature alone in the basaltic plateau. No
other crater features are in
the area. Bajo Hondo is probably too big to be a maar. The
force of expanding water vapor has
a limit. The largest maars are about 1.5 kilometers across:
Meerfelder, the largest of the
Eifel maars (Germany) is 1.4 kilometers across; and Tower Hill
(S.E. Australia ) is 3 kilometers
[Ollier , 1967 ]. Comparing aerial photos of both Bajo Hondo and
Tower Hill maar shows that
they are very different both in their shape and rim's
characteristics. Several volcanic cones
are visible in Tower Hill's depression. Bajo Hondo does not has
any associated volcanic cone.
The hypothesis of Bajo Hondo as a maar can not be completelly
rejected at the present stage
of investigation but so far it seems to be quite unlikely. If
Bajo Hondo is in fact a maar
then it would be the largest maar in the World.
The author believes Bajo Hondo is in fact a misinterpreted
gigantic simple-type impact
crater located on a volcanic plateau, [Rocca, 2003]. If this
crater is in fact a meteorite
impact then it would be very important and interesting as the
second simple impact crater
in basalt on Earth and at the same time an extreme example of a
simple-type impact crater. So
far Lonar Lake's crater in India is the only impact in basalt
known in the World.
It is interesting to note again that Lonar lake crater was
misinterpreted as a volcanic caldera
for many decades. [Fredriksson, 1973].The age of Bajo Hondo
crater is estimated in less than
10 Ma. Further investigation of this polemic and interesting
crater is in progress,
[Rocca, 2003].
REFERENCES:
-- Ardolino A. , Descripcion Geologica de la Hoja 42 f, Sie-rra
de Apas, Direccion Nacional de
Mineria y Geología Boletín nº 203, 1- 91, 1987 (in Spanish )
-- Ardolino A. and Delpino D. , El Bajo Hondo: Una caldera
basaltica en el borde Sur de la
Meseta de Somuncura, Pro-vincia de Chubut, Revista Asociacion
Geologica Argentina ( RAGA )
41, 386-396, 1986 ( In Spanish )
--Ardolino A. and Franchi M.R., El Vulcanismo Cenozoico de la
Meseta del Somun Cura, XII
Congreso Geologico Ar-gentino, Actas IV, 225-235, 1993 (In
Spanish ).
-- Fredriksson K. et al. , Lonar Lake, India: an impact crater in
basalt, Science 180,
862-864, 1973.
-- Fredriksson K. et al. , Petrology, Mineralogy, and
Distribution of Lonar (India) and
Lunar Impact Breccias and Glasses, Smithsonian Contributions to
Earth Sciences 22: 1-13, 1979.
-- French B. F., Traces of Catastrophe, LPI Contribution
954, 1-120, 1998.
--Gorelli R., Meteoritic Craters Discovery by means of X-SAR
Images Examination, WGN (IMO)
26 (3), 134-138, 1998.
--Ollier C.D., Maars: Their characteristics, varieties and
definition, Bulletin Volcanologique
31, BV, 45-75, 1967.
--Rocca M.C.L. : Bajo Hondo, A Very Puzzling Crater in
Chubut, Patagonia, Argentina,
Abstract/Poster number 4001 presented at the 3rd. International
Conference on Large
Meteorite Impacts (LMI), Nordlingen, Germany, August 5-7, 2003.
=========
(9) REPEATED BLOWS: THE GREAT DYING
Michael Paine <mpaine@tpg.com.au>
Dear Benny
This article has just been posted at NASA's Astrobiology Magazine
regards
Michael Paine
Repeated Blows: The Great Dying
Astrobiology Magazine
http://www.astrobio.net/news/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=697
Nearly a quarter-billion years ago, life on Earth almost
disappeared.
Called the Great Dying, the precise cause of why 70-90% of all
terrestrial species might become extinct, challenges geologists,
paleontologists and climatologists. But according to a recent
study
published in Science, astrophysicists who predict meteor orbits
have a
say in the outcome too.
--------
The "Great Dying," a time of earth's greatest number of
extinctions,
appears to have been caused by the impact of a large meteor,
according
to a research team that includes Luann Becker, a scientist with
the
Institute for Crustal Studies in the Department of Geology at the
University of California, Santa Barbara.
The theory, recently published by the team in the journal Science
(Nov.
21, 2003), explains that this extinction event, which occurred
approximately 251 million years ago, is much earlier than the
demise of
the dinosaurs, which is estimated at approximately 65 million
years ago
and is also believed to have been caused by a large meteor
impact.
The evidence is the most convincing yet for an impact at the
"end-Permian," a time commonly referred to as "The
Great Dying," when
life was nearly erased from the earth, explained Becker. She is
currently working in Antarctica with a team searching for more
"impact
tracers," the geological markers that show evidence of large
meteors
hitting the earth. Becker has made several research trips to
Antarctica
and in July 2001 she received the National Science Foundation
Antarctic
Service Medal.
Her article "Repeated Blows," published in the March
2002 issue of
Scientific American, describes the evidence for many past
collisions
with asteroids and how geologists are able to find the evidence
for
these collisions and to date them.
In her overview she states:
* About 60 meteorites five or more kilometers across have hit the
earth
in the past 600 million years. The smallest ones would have
carved
craters some 95 kilometers wide.
* Most scientists agree that one such impact did in the
dinosaurs, but
evidence for large collisions coincident with other mass
extinctions
remained elusive -- until recently.
* Researchers are now discovering hints of ancient impacts at
sites
marking history's top five mass extinctions, the worst of which
eliminated 90 percent of all living species."
Becker's current research at the Graphite Peak in the Central
Transantarctic Mountains, Antarctica, described in the recent
Science
article, has revealed several meteoritic fragments, metallic
grains, in
a thin claystone "breccia" layer. Becker and the
research team believe
this to be strong evidence for a large impact that appears to
have
triggered the Great Dying. Breccia is ejected debris that
resettled in a
layer of sediment. The metallic grains also appear in the same
layer
(end-Permian) in Meishan, southern China. They also resemble
grains
found in the same strata in Sasayama, Japan. (The earth was a
single
continent at the time of the impact.)
The team also found "shocked quartz" in this same layer
in the Graphite
Peak. In the Scientific American article Becker explained,
"Few earthly
circumstances have the power to disfigure quartz, which is a
highly
stable mineral even at high temperatures and pressures deep
inside the
earth's crust." Quartz can be fractured by extreme volcanic
activity,
however, only in one direction. Shocked quartz is fractured in
several
directions and is therefore believed to be a good tracer for the
impact
of a meteor.
The researchers are somewhat surprised that they have not found
the
strong presence of the mineral iridium in the Graphite Peak work.
In an
e-mail from Antarctica Becker stated, "Interestingly, we do
not see a
strong iridium anomaly (the impact tracer that marks the
Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary or the dinosaur extinction
event)."
As she explained in Scientific American, "The first impact
tracer linked
to a severe mass extinction was an unearthly concentration of
iridium,
an element that is rare in rocks on our planet's surface but
abundant in
many meteorites . From this iridium discovery (in 1980) came the
landmark hypothesis that a giant impact ended the reign of the
dinosaurs
-- and that such events may well be associated with other severe
mass
extinctions over the past 600 million years." The discovery
was strongly
debated around the world and scrutinized by geologists.
The increased attention brought about the discovery of more
impact
tracers, including extraterrestrial fullerenes found in the
Graphite
Peak boundary layer. These tracers are carbon molecules called
fullerenes for their soccer-ball shape. They trap
extraterrestrial gases
in space and travel to the earth in the meteor.
The team concludes the Science article by saying, "These
observations
lead us to believe that continued research on such materials from
additional Permian-Triassic boundary samples will finally lead to
a
resolution of the long-sought and contentious issue of a
catastrophic
collision of a celestial body with the Earth at the end-Permian.
In
light of the new evidence presented here, this is a reasonable
interpretation of the global extinction event at the
Permian-Triassic
boundary."
===========
(10) AND FINALLY: KYOTO BAZAAR: BRIBES NOT GOOD ENOUGH. WE WANT
BILLIONS, RUSSIA TELLS EUROPE
Space Daily, 3 December 2003
http://www.terradaily.com/2003/031203184336.lk4bbpr5.html
MOSCOW (AFP) Dec 03, 2003
Russia is moving towards ratification of the Kyoto Protocol on
reducing greenhouse emissions, the country's deputy economy
minister said Wednesday, contradicting comments by a top Russian
presidential adviser the previous day.
"There are no decisions on ratification of the Kyoto
Protocol apart from the fact that we are moving towards
ratification," Mukhamed Tsikanov was quoted as saying by the
RIA-Novosti news agency.
President Vladimir Putin's top adviser on economic issues, Andrei
Illarionov, said in Moscow the day before that "in its
current form, the Kyoto Protocol places significant limitations
on the economic growth of Russia."
His comments came as delegates from 180 countries met in Milan,
Italy, to examine the future of the Kyoto accord, regarded by
environmental protection groups as a key instrument in curbing
global warming.
"Of course, in its present form, this protocol cannot be
ratified," Illarionov said.
Russian ratification of the Kyoto accord is needed to bring it
into force worldwide, but since indicating at a world summit in
Johannesburg last year that it would probably ratify the deal,
Moscow has issued mixed signals on the topic.
With the world's biggest single polluter, the United States,
rejecting the accord, the agreement can only take effect under
its complex ratification rules after it has been approved by
Russia's parliament.
Tsikanov said that the government could submit [hmmm...] the
treaty for ratification next year
but cautioned [aha....] that Moscow wanted to see more interest
[i.e. hard cash] from Europe
and Japan in buying "emission credits" from Russia.
[translation: Russia has asked Europe and
Japan for $4 billion - Europe has so far offered $4 million; I
wonder just how desparate Europe
and her rapidly declining economies are to give in to Russia's
Kyoto blackmail; in short, where
should the Kyoto billions should come from given that Japan and
most European countries have
been in the red for years; BP].
Russia, which is the world's third-largest polluter, after the
United States and China, stands
to be a major beneficiary from the accord.
The cash-strapped country already emits 25 percent less carbon
dioxide than it did a decade ago because of the decline of its
heavy industry, giving it emission permits that it can sell to
Western companies.
"The countries which have increased their emission levels
have shown no interest in buying quotas. [no wonder given that
many of these countries are increasingly as cash-strapped as
poor Russia]. The ratification of the Kyoto protocol will depend
on how effectively they
cooperate [i.e. part with their billions] with Russia in this
field," said the Russian
deputy minister.
All rights reserved. Copyright 2003 Agence France-Presse.
-----------
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CCNet EXTRA: - 4 December 2003
KREMLIN CIRCUS IN FULL SWING AS RUSSIA'S CLIMATE TUSSLE SPINS ON
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A senior adviser to President Putin insists that Russia is not
planning to
ratify the global climate treaty, the Kyoto Protocol, in its
present form.
The adviser, Andrei Illarionov, said he had been repeating Mr
Putin's own words
in a statement he made last Tuesday. He said: "The statement
was made physically
by me, but the words I was using were those of the
president." Mr Illarionov said
the deputy economy minister's statement on Wednesday in support
of the treaty
was "mistaken".
--BBC News Online, 4
December 2003
(1) PUTIN'S MAN INSISTS RUSSIA REJECTS KYOTO
Reuters, 4 December 2003
(2) RUSSIA'S CLIMATE TUSSLE SPINS ON
BBC News Online, 4 December 2003
(3) INTO THIN AIR: KYOTO ACCORD MAY NOT DIE (OR MATTER)
The New York Times, 4 December 2003
===============
(1) PUTIN'S MAN INSISTS RUSSIA REJECTS KYOTO
Reuters, 4 December 2003
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=scienceNews&storyID=3936742
By Oliver Bullough
MOSCOW (Reuters) - A Kremlin aide insisted on Thursday that
President Vladimir Putin had rejected the Kyoto protocol,
directly contradicting the economy ministry and threatening to
kill off the landmark environmental treaty.
Andrei Illarionov, who advises Putin on economic issues, stood by
remarks he made on Tuesday that the pact, which aims to cut
emissions of gases that cause global warming, would harm the
Russian economy and was unacceptable in its present form.
Deputy economy minister Mukhamed Tsikhanov had contradicted him
on Wednesday, in the latest in a series of what the United
Nations calls "mixed signals" on the treaty, which
Russia can effectively veto. He said Moscow was heading for
ratification.
But on Thursday Illarionov told reporters: "The statement
(on Tuesday) was made physically by me, but the words I was using
were those of the Russian president." He said there was no
split between the government and the presidency on the issue.
"There are no differences. The deputy economy minister is
mistaken. He is mistaken in his timing. What he said was the
position of the Russian Federation in August."
Russian approval has been vital to overall adoption of the
protocol since Washington pulled out of the pact in 2001.
It can only come into force if countries responsible for 55
percent of developed nations' emissions approve it. That means
Russia, which emits 17 percent of greenhouse gases, has the
casting vote.
Environmentalists said they believed Moscow was still on course
to ratify the pact, as it had been until an ecological conference
two months ago, when Putin shifted Russia's position.
"The Russian president is in a position to make his own
statement," said Steven Guilbeault at the Greenpeace
environmental group. "Illarionov speaks only for himself. We
remain confident that Russia will ratify."
Diplomats in Moscow, however, said that if Putin took a personal
interest in an issue, the economy ministry frequently lost
influence.
"On these energy issues, the president is quite aggressive
himself...he has the last say and often it is against the
proposals of the economy ministry and even the prime
minister," one diplomat said.
"We believe that this situation means we cannot expect any
decision until after the presidential elections in March."
© Reuters 2003. All Rights Reserved.
==========
(2) RUSSIA'S CLIMATE TUSSLE SPINS ON
BBC News Online, 4 December 2003
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3288683.stm
By Alex Kirby
BBC News Online environment correspondent
A senior adviser to President Putin insists that Russia is not
planning to ratify the global climate treaty, the Kyoto Protocol,
in its present form.
The adviser, Andrei Illarionov, said he had been repeating Mr
Putin's own words in a statement he made last Tuesday.
He said: "The statement was made physically by me, but the
words I was using were those of the president."
Mr Illarionov said the deputy economy minister's statement on
Wednesday in support of the treaty was "mistaken".
Mr Illarionov, President Putin's chief adviser on economic
issues, said in his original statement two days ago: "Of
course, in its present form, this protocol cannot be ratified. It
is impossible to undertake responsibilities that place serious
limits on the country's growth."
But the deputy economy minister, Mukhamed Tsikhanov, said
yesterday the country was moving towards the treaty.
He said: "There are no decisions about ratification apart
from the fact that we are moving towards ratification.
"I cannot comment on Illarionov, but we do not have any
information in the government about the fact that a decision has
been made."
Now Mr Illarionov says: "The statement I made repeated word
for word what the president said at his meeting with EU
representatives.
"There are no disagreements between the Kremlin and the
government. Quite simply, the minister who spoke about this
yesterday was wrong. What he said was the position of the Russian
Federation in August."
US reluctance
The countries which have signed the United Nations Climate Change
Convention, are meeting in the Italian city of Milan this week
and next.
The protocol, negotiated to implement the convention, requires
industrialised countries to cut their emissions of six gases
which scientists believe are exacerbating natural climate change.
Signatories will by some time between 2008 and 2012 have to cut
emissions to 5.2% below their 1990 levels.
But many scientists say cuts of around 60-70% will be needed by
mid-century to avoid runaway climate change.
The protocol will enter into force when 55 signatories have
ratified it, including industrialised countries responsible for
55% of the developed world's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in
1990.
Some critics say President Bush's decision that the US, which
emits more greenhouse gases than any other country, would not
ratify the protocol has already condemned it to irrelevance.
But enough other signatories have done so for it to enter into
force if Russia, another big polluter responsible for 17% of
global emissions, does decide to ratify.
It seems unlikely there will be any clear signal of Russia's
intentions for some time yet, leaving the protocol effectively
becalmed with nobody knowing how seriously to take it.
Copyright 2003, BBC
==========
(3) INTO THIN AIR: KYOTO ACCORD MAY NOT DIE (OR MATTER)
The New York Times, 4 December 2003
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/04/international/europe/04CLIM.html
By ANDREW C. REVKIN
Since it was negotiated in Japan in 1997, the Kyoto Protocol, the
first treaty that would require countries to curb emissions
linked to global warming, has lingered in an indeterminate state,
between enactment and outright rejection.
On Tuesday its prospects were dealt what may have been a fatal
blow when a top Russian official said his country would not
ratify it. But some experts on climate and diplomacy say that the
fate of the Kyoto treaty itself is rapidly becoming less
important than the longer-term processes it set in motion.
Even without approval by the United States and Russia - first and
fourth on lists of the world's largest emitters of heat-trapping
"greenhouse" gases - the treaty has already changed the
world in small but significant ways that will be hard to reverse,
these experts say.
From Europe to Japan and the United States, just the prospect of
the treaty has resulted in legislation and new government and
industry policies curbing emissions.
The treaty's future impact is limited by deep flaws, many experts
say, including its lack of any emissions limits on China and
other big developing countries and its short time frame, with
terms extending only to 2012. As a result, they add, new
approaches must be developed now if atmospheric levels of the
gases are to be stabilized.
The protocol has been approved by 120 countries but was rejected
by President Bush in 2001. Without the United States, the only
way to reach the threshold for enactment under the treaty's terms
was with Russian participation. If enacted, it would give
industrialized countries until 2012 to reduce their combined
emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases more
than 5 percent below 1990 levels.
The possibility remains that the statement on Tuesday by the
Russian official, Andrei N. Illarionov, the top economic adviser
to President Vladimir V. Putin, was just a negotiating ploy,
aimed at extracting as many concessions as possible from the
European Union and Japan, the treaty's main supporters.
On Wednesday a lower-level official, Mukhamed M. Tsikanov, a
deputy economics minister, sounded a note of hope for the treaty,
declaring, "There are no decisions about ratification apart
from the fact that we are moving toward ratification." Mr.
Putin, meanwhile, remained silent.
Regardless of which way Russia steps, the process of moving the
world toward limiting releases of the gases after more than a
century of relentless increases has clearly begun, said David B.
Sandalow, a guest scholar at the Brookings Institution and an
assistant secretary of state during the Clinton administration
who worked on the treaty.
"The standard of success isn't whether the first treaty out
of the box sails through," he said. "The standard is
whether this puts the world on a path to solving a long-term
problem. Other multilateral regimes dealing with huge complex
problems, like the World Trade Organization, have taken 45 or 50
years to get established."
Mr. Sandalow and other experts noted that the European Union had
already passed a law requiring a cap and credit-trading system
for the gases starting in 2005. It will follow the pattern laid
out in Kyoto no matter what happens to the treaty.
Even in the United States, where Mr. Bush and the
Republican-controlled Congress strongly oppose the treaty,
legislation that would require milder restrictions on emissions
than those in the Kyoto treaty has gained some momentum.
Opponents of the treaty acknowledge that it has already made a
difference, though they say it is a harmful one.
"Kyoto is dead and has been dead, but that doesn't mean that
it hasn't done some real damage and won't continue to do some
real damage," said Myron Ebell, a climate policy analyst for
the Competitive Enterprise Institute, an industry-backed group
that opposes regulatory solutions to environmental problems.
"If global warming turns out to be a problem, which I doubt,
it won't be solved by making ourselves poorer through energy
rationing," he said. "It will be solved through
building resiliency and capability into society and through
long-term technological innovation and transformation."
Critics of that view say the one feature of the Kyoto treaty that
cannot be jettisoned is a ceiling on emissions. Without limits,
they say, there will be no incentive for industry to innovate and
find the cheapest, most effective ways to limit the human impact
on the atmosphere, said David D. Doniger, the climate policy
director of the Natural Resources Defense Council, a private
environmental group.
"If the United States had invented the catalytic converter
but not passed clean air laws," he said, "it would
still be sitting on a shelf and we'd still be choking in
smog."
Copyright 2003, The New York Times
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