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A RUSSIAN VIEW ON THE IMPACT HAZARD AND PLANETARY DEFENSE
---------------------------------------------------------
I. SOME OF PROBLEMS AND SEQUENCES OF
DEVELOPMENT OF THE PLANETARY DEFENSE SYSTEM
II. POSSIBLE ARRANGEMENT AND PHASES OF
DEVELOPMENT OF THE PLANETARY DEFENSE SYSTEM
By Anatoly V. Zaitsev <zav@berc.rssi.ru>
Report of International Conference
"SPACE PROTECTION OF THE EARTH - 96"
("SPE-96")
September 23-27, 1996
Russian Federal Nuclear Center
All-Russian Research Institute of Technical Physics
Snezhinsk (Chelyabinsk-70)
Russia, 141400,
Tel.: (095) 575-5859
Moscow region, Khimki-2
FAX: (095) 573-2584
Leningradskoe shosse., 24
E-mail: zav@berc.rssi.ru
SOME OF PROBLEMS AND SEQUENCES OF
DEVELOPMENT OF THE PLANETARY DEFENSE
SYSTEM
ANATOLY V. ZAITSEV
E-mail: zav@berc.rssi.ru
Lavochkin Association, Khimki, Moscow Region, Russia
INTRODUCTION
Between a diversity of dangers, menacing to existence of a
mankind, the
possible consequences of impacts of asteroids and comets with the
Earth are
considered recently by a sufficiently serious manner. It became
evidently,
that a collision with an object few kilometres of size could
result
destruction, in fact, of all lives on our planet [1¸3].
However, a threat can be provided not only by large-scale
objects, a
probability of collision with which is sufficiently low, but also
relatively
small objects of the Tunguska meteorite type. This is due to the
current
abundance of the Earth with potentially dangerous technogenous
objects. It
refers to nuclear objects, chemical plants, toxic wastes
storehouses, etc.
Destruction of any of them in the case of the asteroid impact can
result not
only the human victims and hardware damages, but also became as a
peculiar
"trigger" for development of the ecological crisis or
nuclear conflict.
Increased understanding of degree of the danger of such
developments and
their effect on the stable mankind development provides a
necessity to take
measures in order to avoid such catastrophes or decrease damages
from them.
Their necessity is confirmed by recently conducted studies and
analyses
which showed, that the contemporary level of the technological
development
of the word leading countries allows to proceed to creation of
the Planetary
Defense System (PDS) aimed against the meteor and asteroid danger
[4¸9].
Meanwhile, where are quite, and it is necessary to recognise,
well-proven
thoughts, that the PDS could be used not only for the mankind
rescue, but
also as a mean for destruction of entire countries and regions
[10].
Whole our historical experience argues that this is quite
possible. Perhaps
it is impossible to find neither technical human hands creature,
which was
not harmful for him. Moreover, the scales of possible disasters
in the case
of the PDS use for military purposes could not be compared with
those we
have had in the past.
Taking into account particularities of above anxieties, this
paper contains
an attempts to reveal some of potentially hazardous problems and
consequences of the PDS development. Moreover, the main reason,
according to
which a main emphasis is laid mainly on the analysis of the
negative
occurrences, is a necessity to develop measures with the aim of
their
non-admission.
A number of possible scenarios was developed with this goal. Some
of them
could be seemed as unreal or even absurd, referred to the fields,
which
touched may be only by fantasist.
Nevertheless, such approach allows more clearly reveal the node
problems of
the PDS development, formulate its maximum rigorous requirements
and
development measures for their execution.
At last it will allow to provide the maximum reliability and
efficiency of
the PDS as well as to remove or as much as possible to reduce a
possibility
of negative consequences of its development and use.
ANALYSIS OF CERTAIN PROBLEMS OF THE PDS DEVELOPMENT
At present the permanently operating service of the small
celestial bodies
observation and tracking does not exists yet. Nevertheless, many
of
observatories in the word perform such observations. So, thanks
to a
progress, reached in the fields of the observation instruments
development,
data recording and processing we can wait in the nearest future
the sharp
increase of the number of asteroids and comets, approaching to
the Earth
orbit and intersecting it.
Then, any object, moving to the Earth along the impact
trajectory, can be
detected at any moment. Sizes of this object can be from tens and
hundreds
meters to few kilometres. In the first case a catastrophe of the
regional
scale can threat us, in the second one - the global catastrophe
can happen
on the Earth.
It is obvious, that in the case of the in time warning on the
danger, the
word community will take all possible measures in order to
prevent the
catastrophe or reduce its possible damages.
However, a probability of the favourable for us outcome of events
will
depend on the many factors combination, such as, for instance,
trajectory
parameters and other characteristics of the threatening object,
which
provides us with the time margin, necessary for organisation of
counter-measures, availability of sufficient number of the
corresponding
technical means, etc.
Between a great number of factors, on which our destiny will
depends, the
time factor is the most important. Clearly, that first of the
most important
conditions, providing efficiency of taken measures, is in time,
without any
delay warning on a danger.
In order to meet this requirement, it is necessary to provide not
only
immediacy of data delivery, but also exclude any, even the most
little
possible reasons, which can results data delaying, and, the more
so, their
loss or hide. All reasons of this can be conditionally divided
into
following two categories: technical and non-technical ones.
Technical reasons consist of different malfunctions and failures
in the
communication systems due to both internal errors and external
factors. They
combine the disaster relief and other natural phenomena, such as,
for
instance, powerful solar flares, resulting malfunctions of the
communication
systems and computer networks.
Non-technical reasons in a considerable degree are due to the
so-called
"human factor". Only a man can intentionally or
unintentionally delay, or
even hide the information. It can be due to the negligence or, on
the
contrary, due to the excessive sense of responsibility. For
example, a wish
can arise to re-verify acquired data. With that a possibility
can't be
excluded to loss the valuable time to be spent to take necessary
specific
measures.
We can't exclude numerous other cases, for instance an
intentional hide of
data due to psychical and other illness, on the religious or some
other
motifs. Simultaneous coincidence of many unfavourable
circumstances is
possible as well.
Such assumption may seem as unreal or absurd. But we know a great
number of
examples, when due to different fortuities, including these
through a man
error, great tragedies and catastrophes took place. So, in the
situations,
when a destiny of mankind or some of its part is to be decided,
such
fortuities shall be excluded or minimised.
By this reason, prior the PDS creation, it is seems as necessary
to develop
and accept, on the international level, a number of measures,
providing
operational warning, as well as those excluding or minimising a
probability
of delay, loss or hide of data on the dangerous celestial bodies.
It will be
necessary to develop also a warning procedure and define a number
of persons
and organisations, which must receive the necessary information
and in which
sequence. Moreover, it will be necessary to think over procedure
of the
Earth population or some individual countries warning as well.
Basing on above considerations, the first of the most important
requirements
of the future PDS: along with reliable detection of the dangerous
objects
the Ground/Space-Based Service of Observations (GSBSO) of the
PDS, providing
a guaranteed in time delivery of the acquired data to the
concerning persons
and agencies.
Evidently, in order to meet this requirement, it will be
reasonable to use
an experience gained by a number of means of military
destination: services
of control of the open space, warning on the rocket attack, etc.
For
instance, the data acquired by the observational means could be
delivered to
the centre of control of the open space (CCOS), and then directly
delivered
to authorities of these and other countries.
For this purpose at the initial phase of the GSBSO deployment the
Russian
CCOS of the Ministry of Defense and identical to it the US NORAD
Centre
could be used.
It is obvious, that in parallel to or after the CCOS the data on
detected
celestial bodies shall be delivered to the astronomy and other
science
organisations.
Moreover, it is important to provide guaranteed delivery of data
to
authorities of states, on which territory, as per forecasting,
the
relatively small asteroid should fall. This is necessary in order
to exclude
a temptation to damage or even distract these countries by not
announcing on
a danger.
In fact, it is necessary to note that an accurate prediction of
the impact
point is hardly to provide due to its great spread because of bad
knowledge
of the falling object's parameters, particularly aerodynamic ones
[11].
Meanwhile, in some time development of the observational means
will
contribute to execution of such prediction. So, it is necessary
to take all
measures to exclude a possibility of hide, in some reasons, data
on
dangerous asteroids.
Preliminary studies show that this requirement will be fulfilled
more simply
and reliably with development of the GSBSO space segment. In this
case it
will be relatively easy to provide an independent reception of
data from the
space-borne observational means by ground-based reception
stations in
different regions of the terrestrial globe. By the way, this is a
weighty
argument in favour of development of space-borne observation
means.
Besides of mentioned above, there is also a number of reasons to
hide data
on asteroids, for instance for their utilisation in future for
the military
purpose or as a source of raw material resources.
During process of the celestial objects observation, such
relatively small
objects can be detected, that, at corresponding correction of
their orbits,
could be used to strike territories of different countries.
As it was discussed above, in the nearest future such operation
could be
fulfilled. And it is not obligatory to use the PDS means for this
purpose.
It will be sufficient to study well the characteristics of the
celestial
body during execution of usual space missions and then to push
it, using any
known method, to the Earth impact trajectory, For this aim, in
some
favourable cases, it may be appear, that it is sufficient to use
even the
Spacecraft (S/C) propulsion system, or the impulse of this S/C
collision
with the asteroid. In perspective the "Space Billiards"
method [12] could be
used, that will allow to change the trajectory of sufficiently
great body
due to the process of consecutive collisions with smaller
objects.
So, a possibility can not be excluded to use the S/C, including
those of a
science destination, as a mean for deflection of asteroids in
order to
distract targets on the Earth. Apparently, in order to exclude
such actions,
it will be necessary to accept certain restrictions on some
active
operations in missions of the interplanetary S/C to small
celestial bodies.
Correspondingly, similar restrictions must be imposed on
rocket/space means
of the PDS, that will allow to fulfil a requirement of
impossibility of its
military use.
In order to meet this constraint, the available great experience
of the
international control of arms could be used, that will provide a
confidence
in a possibility of solution of this problem. It is necessary
also to take
into account the fact, that at present asteroids are studied in
the quality
of sources of the raw materials for our future generation.
So that a temptation can appear to hide data on asteroids,
potentially
suitable for this purpose, in order, for example, to monopolise
the property
rights of these resources. To avoid such situation, it is
necessary to
establish procedures, regulating problems of investigation and
utilisation
of these bodies resources.
Discussed above problems of the data provision, have one
important aspect.
The question is, that after receiving of data on the potential
danger,
together with necessity to take effective measures to prevent a
catastrophe,
a dilemma will inevitably arise before the states authorities: is
it
necessary to notify the Earth population about this fact or not?
This problem is represented as more complicated, then that of
operational
warning of competent persons and agencies, which, in higher
degree has the
organisational/technical character.
But an "announcement dilemma" touches an enormous
complex of moral, ethic,
religious and other problems, discussion of which is far outside
of the
framework of this paper and author's competence.
May be it would be more reasonable, after corresponding studying
of this
problem by experts and its wide public discussion, to accept an
international law or code of reglamentations for these critical
situations,
if, certainly, these documents were not developed yet. They will
have to
regulate behaviour of all persons, touching this problem: from
the first
discoverer to state authorities, coming to a decision on a danger
removing
and population warning.
Certainly, at the PDS development it will be necessary to solve a
variety of
more individual, but not less important problems, then those
discussed
above. Particularly, it will require to increase the number of
allowable
azimuths of launch of the launch vehicles, using for launching of
means of
interception of dangerous celestial bodies, to provide the launch
safety of
launch and using of the nuclear means of destruction, to remove
or minimise
a possibility of damage by fragments of the destroyed object,
etc. However
restricted limits of this paper do not allow to carry out even
simplified
analysis of these problems.
POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES OF THE PDS DEVELOPMENT
In the case of accepting of effective measures, one can hope,
that problems
of guaranteed provision of data and no using of the PDS in the
military
purposes can be solved.
Nevertheless, not at the phase of the PDS development and
deployment, but
and after it, a number of extremely complicated problems can
arise, if
measures for their prevention will not be undertaken in advance.
The essence
of one of them is the fact, that a possibility can't be excluded,
that for
some reasons, the PPS "owner", can refuse from its
using for protection of
some state or group of states. That is, a wish can arise to use
this
situation to exert a pressure to these countries in order to
change a
Geo-political situation, etc., or even to destroy them.
A refuse can be expressed both in the evident and implicit form.
In the
first case it can be motivated, for instance, by a fact, that
there is a
danger, that the fragments of the destroyed celestial body could
reach
territories of states, which would not be suffered, if the PPS is
not under
use. In the second case, for instance, a feign of malfunction of
the
intercepting devices, miss at interception, etc. can be used.
Data hiding is
also possible, that it was discussed above. Hence, one more
requirement to
the PDS is as follows: guaranteed defense of any country.
It is becomes clear from above examples, that unusing of the PDS
in the
critic situation can provide not lower threat, than its direct
using with
the military purpose. So, excluding the dilemma: to use or
not to use the
PDS means of defense, can appear as one of the most important
and, may be
the most complicated problem, associated with the Earth
protection against
the asteroid danger.
Solution of "dilemma of the PDS unusing" will require
development of wide
set of measures, and it is possible, that the first of such
measures can be
adoption of the international treaty, forbidding development and
monopoly
possession with the PDS by one state or group of states, united
in single
military/political block or identical to it.
It seems, that one of the most acceptable options of this dilemma
solution
could be development of the PDS simultaneously in Russia and USA,
which
have, in fact, all necessary basic means or their prototypes for
development
of such system. In this case the combined GSBSO and autonomous
interception
services could be created.
Development of the combined GSBSO, which could include the
observation
facilities of other countries, would allow to provide execution
of the first
its requirement: guaranteed operational delivery of the acquired
data to
corresponding authorities and agencies, as well as to exclude a
possibility
of data hide.
At the same time, creation of the autonomous interception
services on the
basis of the national rocket/space, nuclear and other means of
Russia and
USA would allow to eliminate or considerably reduce risk of the
PDS unusing.
Moreover, it would even increase the PPS reliability due to the
functioning
of means, based on different principles and by some other reasons
as well.
It is obvious, that an "unusing dilemma" can arise only
in the case of
collision with the relatively small asteroid. In the case of the
global
catastrophe the Humanity will combine its efforts for struggle
against a
common danger.
However, the mankind's capacities on warding off of the threat
from the
Space will never be unlimited. A situation can be, when we will
not evade
from the global catastrophe.
Perhaps, in this case the single alternative to general
destruction could be
an option of using of the lunar base for saving of small colony
of
terrestrial people. After decay of the catastrophic events on the
Earth,
they could come back and again populate the Earth.
Thus, numerous arguments in favour of the space programs
development,
including the Moon colonisation, can be added by one more: as
margin the
mankind must have the "Noah's Ark - 2".
It is necessary to note, that not only a possibility of perish of
whole
mankind, but also and its part compel us to reflect on a
possibility to keep
some minimum of spiritual and material valuables, which would
allow to
regenerate and restore losses at any possible catastrophes of the
regional
and global scale.
With this aim it would require to develop and execute a special
program,
which could be named as "Phoenix", including a wide
range of measures of
fulfilment of such objective. Apropos, may be some kind things
were in
history, that could explain an extremely high level of
development of some
of ancient civilisations.
The analysis, performed in this work concerning some negative of
scenarios
of possible events, has no for its aim to force a horror around
the asteroid
danger problem or to find guilty of somebody in evil intentions.
As it was
discussed at the beginning of paper, it was done with the
objective to
formulate more well-proven requirements, imposed on the PDS.
Fulfilment of
these requirements will allow to exclude a possibility of
realisation of all
considered (and more and more number of not considered) negative
options of
the events development, leaving them for using as scenarios in
the science
fictions, movies, etc.
CONCLUSION
Results of the executed analysis of possible problems and
consequences of
the PDS development allow to formulate a number of the most
important
general requirements which the PPS shall satisfy.
Besides of the obvious requirement of non-admission of the PDS
use with a
military purpose, the PDS shall satisfy, at least, to two more
the most
important requirements: guaranteed in time warning on a danger,
as well as
to guarantee the defense of any country against this danger.
It is clear, that during the PDS development, deployment and
operation it
will be necessary also to satisfy to numerous partial
constraints, including
those mentioned in this paper. In order to meet some of them in
the nearest
future, it would be reasonable to take the following measures on
the
international level:
1. To take measures excluding possibilities of the loss, delay or
hide of
the data both on threatening celestial bodies, and those, which
represent an
interest as row materials resources.
2. To develop a procedure of warning as well as to define a
number of
persons and agencies, to which the data shall be delivered and in
which
sequence.
3. To adopt the code of rules of behaviour for persons, receiving
the data
on a danger, as well as the warning procedure for the Earth
population.
4. To initiate an issue concerning creation of the international
lunar base
and to develop procedures, allowing regenerate or restore
possible losses as
a result of catastrophes of the regional or global scale.
5. To restrict active experiments with small celestial bodies. In
order to
exclude a possibly of the monopoly possession by the PDS, it
seems as
reasonable to accept an international agreement on non-deployment
of the PDS
by one or few countries, united in single military/political
block.
Undoubtedly, the more detailed study of problems, concerning
protection
against the asteroid and cometary danger, will allow to reveal
more numerous
other problems of the most various character. But even from above
list is
becomes clear, that the PDS deployment will put for the mankind a
number of
essentially non-ordinary problems, each of them may be not only
from the
point of view of the science/engineering, but also from points of
view of
organisation, politics, law, moral, ethics, etc.
Possibility of their solution has no doubts. Nevertheless, this
will require
to combine efforts of a great number of experts in the field not
only of the
natural sciences, but also and humanity sciences. As a result,
works on the
PDS development can became as a peculiar catalyst of
development for many
industries and technologies, as it was at development of such
great
projects, as for instance, space ones, that will favour not only
the
defense, but also development and unity of the Humanity.
REFERENCES
1. Smith Joseph V. - Protection of the human rase against natural
hazards
(asteroides, ñomets, volcanoes, earthquakes// Geology, v. 13, p.
675-678,
Oct. 1985.
2. The Spaceguard Survey: Report of the NASA International
Near-Earth-Object
Detection Workshop// Edited by D. Morrison. JPL/CIT, Pasadena,
CA, Jan. 25,
1992.
3. Gehrels T. - Collisions with Comets and Asteroids// Scientific
American,
p.54-59, March, 1996.
4. Zaitsev A. V. - Proposals on development of the System of
prevention of
the Earth collision with asteroids and comets (re-orientation of
works
carrying out in the framework of the SDI into peaceful
objectives)// Report
to the General Secretary of the Central Committee of the
Communist Party of
the Soviet Union, N 629203 from 20.10.86, Babakin SRC, 17 pp.,
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5. Zaitsev A. V. - Some principles of construction of the system
of
prevention of the Earth collision with asteroids and comets//
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rocket/space
technology. Moscow. IHST of AS of the USSR, p. 141 - 147, 1989.
6. Kovtunenko V. M., Zaitsev A. V., Kotin V. A. - Scientific and
Technical
Aspects and Problems in Building the System to Protect the Earth
Against
Hazardous Space Objects// Report of International Conference
"SPE-94",
Snezhinsk, Sept. 26-30, 1994.
7. Wood L., Hyde R., Ishikawa M., Ledebuhr A. - Cosmic
Bombardment IV:
Averting Catastrophe In The Here-And-Now// LLNL Doc. No
PHYS.BRIEF 94-029.
International Conference "SPE-94", Snezhinsk, Sept.
26-30, 1994.
8. Kovtunenko V. M., Zaitsev A. V. - Protecting Earth from
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vol.2, N4, pp.
25-27, 1995.
9. Zaitsev A. V. - Possible Appearance and Stages of the
Planetary
Protection System Creation// Report of International Conference
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10. Foley T. - Sagan Backs Inventory// Space News, Okt. 10-16,
1994, p.17.
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Scattering of Celestial Bodies Fall Places on the Earth Surface//
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Some Methods
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"SPE-96", Snezhinsk, Sept. 23-27, 1996.
================
POSSIBLE ARRANGEMENT AND PHASES OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE PLANETARY
DEFENSE
SYSTEM
By A. V. ZAITSEV
Report of International Conference
"SPACE PROTECTION OF THE EARTH - 96"
("SPE-96")
September 23-27, 1996
Russian Federal Nuclear Centre
All-Russian Research Institute of Technical Physics
Snezhinsk (Chelyabinsk-70)
Russia, 141400,
Tel.: (095) 575-5859
FAX: (095) 573-2584
E-mail: zav@berc.rssi.ru
Moscow region, Khimki-2
Leningradskoe shosse., 24
POSSIBLE ARRANGEMENT AND PHASES OF
DEVELOPMENT OF THE PLANETARY DEFENSE
SYSTEM
A. V. ZAITSEV
E-mail: zav@berc.rssi.ru
Lavochkin Association, Khimky, Moscow Region
INTRODUCTION
In fact at present there is no doubt about the existence of real
danger
originated from the asteroids and comets impacts with the Earth,
that
threatens its biosphere, so this circumstance does not require
additional
arguments.
Earlier conducted works [1-4] show that the up-to-date levels of
development
of technologies allow to proceed already to the practical
realization of
measures, providing the protection against this danger.
This work develops and adds some conditions related to the
earlier proposed
principles of construction of the Planetary Defense System (PDS)
aimed to
protect against asteroids and comets. Use of the term
«planetary» in the
name is explained by the fact, that this system will be used to
defend not
only of the Earth, but also other bodies of the Solar System, and
the Moon
in the first place. It will be necessary not only for protection
of the
lunar colonies, but for preventing of the consequences of the
great bodies
impacts with the Moon, that are probably unfavourable for the
Earth's
population. For instance, a possibility of the great fragments
falling on to
the Earth, pollution of the near-terrestrial space, change of the
Moon's
orbit could be referred to these effects.
The approach to the PDS architecture, which is proposed below, is
based on
the utilization of already existing, mainly rocket/space
technologies.
Obviously, that with the appearance of new science and technology
achievements, the PDS and means of configurations used will be
essentially
upgraded and the System will have more capacity for the defense
against such
space danger.
1. SOME OF THE MOST IMPORTANT PDS REQUIREMENTS
As it was shown in earlier works, in order to protect the Earth
effectively,
and in future - other celestial bodies, the PDS must include the
following
three interconnected elements [1-3]:
· Ground/Space-Based Service of Observation (GSBSO);
· Ground/Space-Based Service of Interception (GSBSI);
· Ground-Based Control Center (GBCC).
It is obviously, that the PDS shall provide protection both from
the
celestial bodies, which will be detected several days before the
collision
with the Earth, and from the those, impact with which can be
predicted many
years in advance. Therefore the PDS shall have at least two
ranges of the
target detection and interception: the operational one and
stand-off one
[3,5-7].
But, taking into account a rarity of impacts with the Earth of
the even
relatively small asteroids (about once per century), it appears
unreasonable
to develop all the PDS means and maintain them in the state of
the permanent
operational readiness (as in the cases of the anti-air and
anti-missile
defenses), at least in the nearest future. More rational would be
such
approach to the PDS configuration, when most of its components
are based on
the facilities of the «double» utilization and/or are combined
with the
components of the systems and facilities of another destination.
It will allow to maintain some of the PDS elements in the
operational mode,
which conditionally could be named as «virtual» one. This
implies that a
number of the PDS components will not be included in its
composition.
However, in case of the critical situation, they must be promptly
developed
or involved from other systems or services for fulfillment of the
PDS tasks.
Of course, once in the «virtual» mode, the System will not be
able to
fulfill its functions completely. Therefore, the GSBSO facilities
permanently under the action must be created, which would provide
the
constant monitoring of the outer space, and the necessary minimum
of the
means, providing the operational counter-measures against danger,
must be
deployed as well. At the same time the stand-off interception
could be quite
well kept in the mode, close to the virtual one.
So that, it is clear that the use of «virtualization» principle
will allow
to decrease considerably expenses and delays of the PDS
deployment.
Many other constraints must be taken into account at the PDS
development and
deployment, which follow from its specificity. The following can
be noted
from the most important factors [8]:
· provision of the guaranteed operational warning of the danger
of a
small celestial body impact;
· provision of the guaranteed use of the PDS means for any
country
territory protection against falling celestial body.
In order to fulfill the first requirements, the combined
international GSBSO
could be developed, which would exclude the possible losses,
delaying or
hiding of the data on the celestial bodies both threatening
to the Earth
and representing an interest to somebody from the point of view
of their
utilization in the future with the aim of the Earth bombardment
by asteroids
or the asteroids utilization as the sources of the raw materials.
The most
simple and reliable method of these tasks fulfillment could be
provision of
the simultaneous and independent receiving of the data from the
space
segment of the observation service, arranged at different points
of the
globe.
In order to satisfy the second requirement, it is necessary to
create
several autonomous GSBSI segments on the basis of the
missile/space, nuclear
and other facilities of Russia, USA and possibly of some other
states,
possessing identical means. It would allow to exclude the
potential cases of
the PDS non-use for defense of any state for political,
technological or
some other reasons. Sure, that the feasibility of these and other
requirements represents a sufficiently complicated problem.
Nevertheless,
the experience of development of the complicated rocket/spatial,
combat and
other systems provides the confidence in possibility of their
fulfillment.
Let us consider the possible configurations of the PDS
architecture.
2. GROUND/SPACE-BASED SERVICE OF OBSERVATION
Necessity of the reliable detection of the dangerous celestial
bodies
suggests for the GSBSO, and particularly for its Space
Observational Segment
(SOS), a great number of complicated requirements for the outer
space
permanent monitoring, value of range of the target detection,
efficacy,
accuracy of determination of the celestial bodies trajectories
and other
parameters. The analysis of some of these requirements, from the
point of
view of principal possibility of their fulfillment at the
state-of-the-art
level of the optics/electronics development, was done in the
works
[5,7,9,10]. One can also find there the ground for
necessity of the SOS
development and possible configurations of its construction.
Below we will discuss one of possible options of the operational
SOS
construction, destined, in the first place, for detection of
small celestial
bodies in the nearest proximity to the Earth (at the distances up
to few
tens of millions of kilometers).
The analyses of the family of possible trajectories of asteroids,
moving
along the Earth impact orbits, were carried out for determination
of the
areas, to be tracked by the SOS facilities. With that it was
taken into
account, that their perihelia and aphelia lay correspondingly in
the limits
of 0.1-1 and 1-6 A.U. Inclinations of their orbits to the
ecliptic plane are
from 0o to 90o.
Some of the results of simulation of these bodies' motions
relative to the
Earth are given in Fig. 1, where, for clarity, only trajectories
are shown,
laying in the ecliptic plane. This picture will be practically
identical for
inclined trajectories. Two closed curves show regions, which
limits
correspond to the time of approaching to the Earth not less than
from 3 to 5
days. It is necessary to note, that these frontiers correspond to
the
so-called fast asteroids with low aphelion and high perihelion,
i.e. with
orbits having eccentricities close to 1. The approach time of
asteroids with
low eccentricities from these frontiers will be considerably
more.
In order to provide these regions tracking, it is considered
reasonable to
put the Spacecraft (S/C), equipped with a telescope, to the
orbit,
coinciding with the Earth orbit, but with some lag or advance
relative to
it. With that, during the celestial bodies observations it is
possible to
provide the sufficiently acceptable phase angles, and what is
very
important, that checked area will have relatively small angular
sizes. For
instance, from the distance of 13 million km the 3-day region
will be seen
under angle of about 60o. Thus, the checked area of celestial
sphere will be
decreased nearly by an order in comparison with observations from
the Earth,
for which it is necessary to keep under the control the whole
celestial
sphere. In addition, the proposed option of the S/C location
provides the
conditions good enough for observing the asteroids, approaching
the Earth
from the Sun side. It is impossible to observe such asteroids
from the Earth
at all.
Conducted analyses [10] show, that using already existing
optic/electronic
observational facilities, scanning of the area under
consideration is
possible with the interval of several hours, that is quite
sufficient for
the operational warning of a danger. Few S/C can be deployed for
the
efficient monitoring of this area. Their heliocentric orbits can
be arranged
in such a way, that they will revolve around the Earth at the
distance of
10-20 million km, providing observation of the monitoring area
under
different aspect angles.
Development of the proposed option is possible to begin as early
as in
nearest future, by observing from the Earth regions, located in
its orbit
along its motion path at the distance of 10-20 mln km. In this
case all
necessary initial data for the S/C and its telescope will be
acquired and
statistical data on asteroids, intersecting the Earth orbit, will
be
updated.
The proposed method can be used in order to provide the global,
widespread
ground-based observations of the space region, lying along the
Earth orbit.
If confine oneself to the observation angles relative to the Sun
more than ±
45o, in this case it will be possible to observe from the Earth
the toreidal
region along its orbit with cross-section of few millions of km
and length
of about 500 million km, i.e. on half of the Earth orbit. In this
case, the
distant regions with small angular sizes can be observed with the
majority
of the greatest astronomic instruments, such as BTA (Zelenchuk),
Palomar
telescope, etc. and even by the Space Hubble S/C. It will be
possible to
observe the nearer regions, using the smaller telescopes, but
with larger
fields of view.
The realization of such international program, which
conditionally can be
named as «Tore», would allow considerably increase the
efficiency of
detection of asteroids, intersecting the Earth orbit, specify the
degree of
the asteroid danger and better reasonably formulate the SOS
requirements.
Then the S/C with telescopes could be injected in to the regions
of the
Earth orbit at angles of about ± 90o relatively to the Sun-Earth
direction,
which will provide an observation from the Earth of its orbit
portions,
invisible from the Earth. Thus, the whole space region along the
Earth orbit
will be monitored, that will allow to provide the early warning
of the
overwhelming majority of the bodies, intersecting the Earth
orbit.
In this case it will be possible to combine the problem of
detection of
asteroids, intersecting the Earth orbit, with observations of the
Sun side,
invisible from the Earth, that represents an essential interest
for
forecasting of its activity. Such combination of objectives would
be
reasonable, for instance, in the framework of GEKATA, SPINS, etc.
projects
[11,12].
Realization of the «Tore» program must be considered as the
first step in
the GSBSO development. Then, as the technical facilities are
upgraded, it
will be necessary to provide the global monitoring of the whole
celestial
sphere in order to exclude the possibility of unexpected
appearance of the
hazardous celestial body with great orbital period, or, for
example, for the
case of possible change of trajectories of celestial bodies,
which did not
early threaten to the Earth. It would be due to the gravitational
perturbations at the planet's fly-by or as a result of collision
with other
small celestial bodies.
3. GROUND/SPACE-BASED SERVICE OF INTERCEPTION
Depending on the above-mentioned principles of the PDS
construction, the
GSBSI will be based on the rocket/space facilities: Launch
Vehicles (LV),
S/C, ground-based infrastructure (Space Launch Sites,
telecommunication,
guidance and control facilities, etc.). Because of many reasons,
for the
time being it is unreasonable to arrange in the space the
facilities,
destined for provision of the counter-measures against asteroid
danger
[3,7].
Between of all the variety of the available LV, the requirements
for the
delay of preparation for the launch, payload mass, etc. are
mostly
satisfied to the LV «Conversion» (on the basis of SS-18 ICBM),
«Zenit» and
«Proton». Especially the «Zenit» LV can be marked out, which,
at
sufficiently large payload injected capability (12 tons in the
parking
orbit), has unique performance related to the immediacy of
launch. After
erection on to the launch table, it can be prepared for launch in
1.5 hour,
and the next launch from the same table can be executed in 5
hours [13].
Neither launch facility with the rocket in the word has such a
capability.
Such performance makes this LV irreplaceable for the service of
the
effective interception.
The rocket/space industry has also a number of the flight-proven
Spacecraft
and advanced projects, which could be a base for development of
the
S/C-reconnaissance and S/C-interceptor. To this type of S/C could
belong
Spacecraft developed by Lavochkin Association, such as Mars-96
(Phobos)
series, SKIPPER space-bus, Orbital Module for the Mars-2001
mission, etc.
It is evident, that the nuclear industry has in its disposal many
nuclear
warheads, which can be used as means, effecting the small
celestial bodies.
It is necessary to note that with all the variety of possible
means,
affecting on the celestial bodies, we shall not apparently have
an
alternative to the nuclear means in the nearest future.
Let us consider an option of the effective intercept conception,
basing upon
the approaches, stated in this and proceeding works [6,7].
Let us take one of the most critical options as an initial
precondition,
when the time-period from the moment of the asteroid detection up
to its
impact with the Earth does not exceed 3 days. Let us assume that
the
asteroid's velocity is equal to 50 km/s, which is evidently close
to the
extreme velocities of such objects.
The events can be in progress in the following sequence (Fig.2).
· T = 0. Asteroid detection. Warning. Beginning of
preparation of the
rocket/space facilities to the launch. Involvement of the
additional
observation facilities. Updating of the asteroid parameters.
Making
a decision on the S/C launch.
· T » 12 hours. First intercept S/C launch.
· T » 18 hours. First reconnaissance S/C launch.
· T » 24 hours. Second (reserve) reconnaissance S/C
launch.
· T » 48 hours. Second (reserve) intercept S/C launch.
It is clear, that such rate of launches can be provided only at
the
conditions of a number of possible LV launch azimuths or at
launches from
different Space Launch Sites.
The first intercept S/C is launched with the aim to encounter the
asteroid
at a maximum distance from the Earth. The reconnaissance S/C, due
to its
small mass, will be accelerated up to considerably greater
velocity and, by
outstripping the first S/C, it will be the first, who meets the
asteroid.
On the basis of the data acquired from these S/C, the Space
Flight Control
Center (SFCC) generates the model of this body, that is utilized
for
preparation of all necessary data, which are to be transmitted
on-board of
the intercept S/C. All these operations last about 8 hours. Then
the
intercept S/C performs the maneuver of approaching to the
asteroid. At their
collision the nuclear warhead is exploded and the asteroid is
distracted or
deflected from the Earth impact trajectory.
Some time prior the collision, two small observational S/C must
be separated
from the intercept S/C with the task to observe the results of
the executed
operation from the safe distance. In the case of miss or
necessity of
additional effect on the asteroid, the second intercept S/C will
be used.
At using the «Zenit» LV for launch of the intercept S/C along
the
energetically optimum trajectory, the mass of the warhead, to be
delivered
to the asteroid, can reach 1500 kg. Power of such warhead is at
least 1.5
Megatons [14], which will allow distracting the asteroid about
100 m in
diameter [15].
Identical sequence of events can be used for execution of the
operations of
the long-range GSBSI. In this case the «Proton» Launcher will
provide the
launches.
It is necessary to note, that for interception at the distant
frontiers
outside the Mars orbit and inside the Venus orbit, as well as far
from the
ecliptic plane - it will be necessary to use the S/C, equipped by
the solar
or nuclear electrical/rocket propulsion subsystems.
Of course, this picture is fairly schematic. Its realization
requires
solving a number of problems. However they do not grow out of the
capabilities of the current technologies.
Development of the main components of the operational PDS can be
carried out
in the nearest future in the frameworks of the «Discovery»
experiment [16]
and «Space Patrol» Project [17,18], during investigation of the
asteroids,
flying near the Earth.
Besides the usage of the national rocket/space facilities, in the
framework
of the international «Synthesis» Project it is looks like
reasonable to
develop the versatile reconnaissance and intercept S/C on the
basis of the
best world space technologies, taking into account the
possibility of their
launches by the different Launchers, provision of
telecommunication with
them, their guidance control, etc. Their development could be
done in the
framework of the international space missions, for example to the
small
bodies of the Solar System. Provision of small reserve of such
S/C will
allow to use them, for instance, for the urgent mission to the
suddenly
appearing objects of the type of comets Hale-Bopp, Hyakutake,
etc.
Simultaneously with execution of the above works, the PDS ground
control
segment will be developed and deployed.
CONCLUSION
Presented here brief exposition of the approaches to the
Planetary Defense
System architecture, not pretending to the completeness of
enveloping of the
whole problem issues, nevertheless shows the reality of the PDS
development
on the basis of the up-to-date technologies.
Basing on necessity to meet a number of the most important PDS
requirements,
it is necessary to accept that it must include the joint
international
GSBSO, which primary components must be represented by the S/C,
equipped by
the telescopes and injected into the orbit, coinciding with the
Earth orbit,
at the distance of 10 - 20 million kilometers from it, as well as
several
autonomous GSBSI segments on the basis of the national
rocket/space, nuclear
etc. means of Russia, USA and, perhaps, of some other countries.
Development of these main components can be done in the nearest
future in
the framework of the «Tore», «Discovery», «Space Patrol»
and «Synthesis»
Projects. At that all these projects can be executed in the
framework of
realization of the national and international programs of the
outer space
exploration, i.e. they will became the key components of these
programs. So
that, to the beginning of the third millennium it will be
possible to carry
out the developmental tests of all PDS components and, thereby,
to lay the
foundation for its deployment.
The author expresses his deep gratitude to A. V. Dobrov and I. M.
Morskoy
for assistance and advises in writing this paper.
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Copyright 2000, Anatoly V. Zaitsev <zav@berc.rssi.ru>
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